SP500: Buy A Dip Stocks are in recovery mode, with major indexes trading at all-time highs. This movement began after the US unemployment rate showed a slight decrease in jobs two weeks ago, suggesting that inflation could potentially weaken. This trend was further supported by this week's CPI data, which indicated a drop from 3.5% to 3.4%. Speculators believe that the Federal Reserve might be one step closer to potential rate cuts later this year, although I think this is still a distant possibility. However, the markets are definitely positioning for this move later this year.
Examining US Treasury yields, we have seen a strong reversal on the 10-year note, indicating that the dollar could continue its downward pressure. When looking at the S&P 500, which typically trades inversely to the US dollar, we see a strong upward move. In fact, several breakaway gaps in the cash market suggest a very strong uptrend.
From an Elliott wave perspective, you need five waves up before looking for a potential completion of the uptrend. If we examine the rise from April, we can clearly see that this is not yet a five-wave movement. In fact, the strong middle move up from 5,000 typically represents an impulse within an ongoing trend. I would argue that there is room for more upside, especially after the next retracement, which I believe could be wave four. Given the extended move in wave three, we should see some pullbacks as markets do not move in a straight line.
The first potential and interesting support area could be between 5,250 and 5,270, which was the previous high and the recent gap that occurred after the latest CPI figures. This certainly appears to be a key area for the next dip. If you want to play the long side, you will likely want to see the pullback first.
The invalidation level of the whole recovery would be around 5,124. If we believe we are in an impulsive sequence and expect more upside, then wave four must not intrude into the territory of wave one or wave two. If this happens, it means that the trend is most likely changing to bearish or maybe just moving sideways.
Grega
Sp500analysis
ES1! - TIME TO LOOK FOR SHORT ENTRIES OPPORTUNITIES - WEEKLYThank you for the likes, shares and follows. Really appreciate!
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This is a zoome out from the latest analysis of the ES1! Mini S&P500 Market.
A little bit adjusted with some interesting points to consider.
in the upper side we potentially won't be surprised in proach futrue see the price rising to $5637.5.
It is time probably to think at holding long short positions as there are some potential lower price point interesting to consider:
- The red horizontal line range area
- And lower there the blue dashed horizontal line
next week candle could probably do the same as this week but in the short side.
Where is the price going and what is the upper side limit? We don't know, we can only make some assumptions based on the technical analysis of the chart.
The issue is that we see that some historicl correlations are not being respected anymore.
Home Depot DivergenceHome Depot is a stock that loves bull and bear divergences in technical terms. There have been 3 bullish divergences since 2022, all of which have brought an average return of around 25%. The last divergence is now in place and a potential 25% return would push the stock over $400.
S&P 500 (US500):🔴Bearish or bullish...?!🔴By examining the weekly and 4-hour charts, we can determine the price was heavily pushed down after creating the all-time high.
I am not bearish for the long-term on the S&P500, but for now, I think the price can have a bearish reaction to the bearish breaker block and move down at least till the previous week's low, then we should study the price to find out the next move.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️27/05/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
S&P 500 Tests 5,300 as Inflation Eases, Fed Policy in FocusThe market remains cautiously optimistic as the S&P 500 tests the 5300 resistance level. The deceleration in inflation is promising, yet the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy remains uncertain. Investors should stay vigilant, monitoring economic data and Fed communications to navigate potential volatility and capitalize on market opportunities.
* S&P 500 at Resistance: The index tests 5,300 amid recent inflation data.
* Inflation Slowdown: Core CPI rose just 0.3% in April, the slowest pace in 3 years. This boosted stocks, with the S&P 500 reaching a new high.
* Fed Policy: The Fed may hold steady on rates in the near term, but a September cut is increasingly likely if inflation continues to moderate.
* Key Upcoming Data: The PCE price index (will released this week) and future inflation reports will be crucial for gauging the Fed's policy stance.
* Market Outlook: Cautious optimism prevails as investors weigh the inflation slowdown and potential Fed actions.
SP500. Weekly trading levels 27 - 31.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
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Weekly Forex Forecast: May 20-25th Part 2This 2 part video covers...
- USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
- S&P500, NASDAQ, GOLD, SILVER, CRUDE OIL
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SP500. Weekly trading levels 13 - 17.05.2024SP500 is again almost at a historical high, with one zone to go ahead.
During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
S&P500 ForecastS&P500 Currently, there is a bearish trend projected to reach 5190 from the pivot point at 5225. However, if it breaks above 5245, confirmed by a 4-hour candle closing above this level, it could potentially target higher levels at 5261 and 5280.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5225
Bullish Lines: 5245, 5261, 5280
Bearish Lines: 5190, 5168, 5150, 5099
SP500 Mid term planOur friend Fibonacci is showing up a possible next move for SPX. Actually is ranging exactly on the 1.618 level of the last leg, and usually this level to a retrace till the level 1. There we could probably see a reversal that could lead the price into the resistance area at 5250, but it's probably too early for that
SP500 in the hammer zoneSP500 reached a strong reversal area where price reacted in the previous week. I was expecting a little pump in my previous ideas, and honestly i wasn't expecting it to rise so much. But i am holding my short trades and i am adding more here, consider i expect a selloff this month. First target the support zone at 4990
Sell in May and go Away ... not too fastWe recently saw the AMEX:SPY index falling very fast and aggressively to the correction territory. The level found support around the 4950s. After all the events like Earnings, one day down, the other day up, and both very aggressive, plus the Fed meeting, also with a wild rollercoaster. At the end of the day the index found support above the 4950. Which is good news, and the first step.
What does it come next? After all this spring clean I am expecting that all the weak hands were shaken and the "buy low sell high" comes next. Double bottom and a target level 5200 for the SP500.
The VIX spiked to the dreadful level of 20 and it came down. No WWIII, no Iran vs Israel, no international events. "News is Noise". The market shrugged off the events and determined that the 100 ma support was stronger. We're still in the correction territory, until we go past the 50 ma the next target will be the All Time High ATH levels we saw by the end of March.
The market hates to become predictable, so the "Sell in May and go Away ..." could as well have turned into "Sell in April, don't be fooled".
Indicators:
Madrid Ribbon at 100/200 ma
Madrid EMA at 50
Madrid Momentum Indicator
Madrid Display Symbol showing VIX
SP500 H4 Projection Price is clearly in a bearish trend. Price also has fair value gab and unmitigated order block zone. So initiate short positions near the order block zone after finding a strong bearish price action structure. Analysis trend is invalid if the price breaks and closes above the trendline. Good Luck.
SPX setting up positively ahead of tomorrow's CPI releaseSPX setting up positively ahead of tomorrow's CPI release. IF stochastic can hold in its upper quartile, an underlying positive momentum will be present.
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SP500 Expecting a dropI think SP500 is on the way to perform a great drop. Looking on H4 timeframe we can see a clean break below main trendline and a retest of it. I think today we will see some volatility around the beginning of the NY Session. I expect a fake moves first to the upside to grab some liquity, next we should see a drop till support zone around $5130