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Sp500analysis

Quad Witching: Mark Your Calendar for 2024Quad-witching is a phenomenon unique to the stock and options markets, occurring four times a year. It captures a flurry of activity sparked by the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivatives contracts: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. The third Friday of March, June, September, and December marks these critical days in the trading calendar, bringing with them distinct opportunities and challenges for investors and traders alike. Quad Witching S&P 500 Index Price Drops 2023 March -1.1% June -0.37% September -1.22% December -0.1% Average Drop 0.7% The Basics of Quad Witching Quad Witching is a critical event for anyone engaged in the stock market due to its pronounced effects on market volatility. Understanding its mechanics, significance, and impact helps investors and traders navigate the complexities of financial markets. Definition of Quadruple Witching Quadruple Witching is a term used to describe the simultaneous expiration of four types of financial derivatives: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. This event happens every quarter, specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It poses distinct considerations for market participants. Significance of Quadruple Witching Dates It is important for those who are involved in the financial markets to mark the calendar for Quadruple Witching Dates. These days witness increased trading activity as investors and traders adjust or close out their derivative positions. This period of adjustment is a display of strategic decision-making as market participants act to manage their investments before contracts expire. Impact on Market Volatility During Quad Witching, there is a simultaneous expiration of derivative contracts that can lead to higher trading volume and market volatility. Traders and investors need to be aware of the potential fluctuations in prices resulting from the amplified trading activity, which can significantly impact the short-term valuation of securities.
SP:SPXEducation
by liberatedstocktrader
1
SPX500 - SHORT STRUCTURE IDEA (TARGET 4725)What's on the chart? 1) An old high that marked a strong year for 2023. 2) A rebound in a weekly FVG that earlier served as a bullish signal for prior trading sessions. 3) In the process of that rebound, a 4H bullish FVG was formed which will serve as our target area + fibs. 4) The 2023 high was broken. 5) IMPORTANT: the new high wasn't taken out. Hmmm.. suspicious. That to me is a sign of weakness from the bulls. 6) On this flop of bullish momentum, a bearish 4H FVG was formed. 7) Market structure shift with a low taken out. Do we expect a rebound? Well I don't know. I'm not here to claim that I predict the future like most twitter gurus will imply. But if it does, this is how I see the rest go down. 8) A rebound in the 4H FVG, this is crucial for a short setup because it would imply a lower high. Super important!! Price doesn't need to go that high though to find a short setup. We could just break our imaginary trendline and that's it. 9) The descent into the abyss of short profits (or liquidations lol).
FX:SPX500Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
SPY 2 Week ForecastAMEX:SPY I'm doing a quick analysis of basic price action from the start of 2024 thru the end of January. AMEX:SPY $475 is a possible support High and Lows for this year are identified, a break of either of those could generate a more significant move in the same direction. We could see a lot of chop between AMEX:SPY $478 and $472, but if $472 holds then there is still a case for more All Time Highs in the future. Using a fib extension from this year only, 1.618 value would put us around AMEX:SPY $490 - $492 which for me a reasonable move up. 3% or so is something SPY can do in a week easy. Using an offset moving average , $476 would become support 50 days out. This is just what the moving average gives, but it seems reasonable. JPM issues $5100 price target for SP:SPX this year 2024.
AMEX:SPY
by DontSlamTheDoor
S&P500 Next Support LevelClosely monitor the zone indicated in above chart. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
SP:SPX
by rukshan2102
New Top, Old Resistance: Mixed News Question Bullish SupertrendNew Top, Old Resistance: Mixed News Question Bullish Supertrend Dear Esteemed Traders, TECHNICAL ANALYTICS Zooming out on the chart, ES hit a level that might be a resistance since January 2022, formed by a previous top. Historic tops often act as a resistance. Alone this would be a weak indication, but the price managed to hit that level at the same time when it also met the rising resistance from historic bottoms. See the red line on the chart. I can observe double bearish signals on a bullish super trend, in which the price seems to have crossed down together with the EMAs in the previous month. I wouldn't call super trend bearish yet, but the so far strong bullishness of it became questionable. MACD made a bearish cross and made a journey towards the bearish side of the indicator below the price chart. RSI went extremely negative after an extended period spent in the upper half of the indicator. It means that ES might have been overbought, and the market signals the start of a correction to this overboughtness. The possible correction move paired with a volume that matches the buy volume candles of the mentioned rally. This volume profile further powers the idea that the people who have been buying ES since October might feel the level to take profit on their investments. The Money Flow Index (MFI) at the bottom and Bull-Bear Power (BBP) above it share the bearish view. BBP isn't too bearish, but it's been showing a weakening bullish power since December. Finally, the $4736 support seems to be holding up the market from crashing. If the support breaks, the price can fall to the next support. I observed a support of around $4600. These are the analytics, I found, but let's consider news trading. NEWS The Federal Reserve has signaled its intention to raise interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. This could weigh on stocks, as higher interest rates can make borrowing more expensive for businesses and consumers. Recent economic data has been mixed, with some indicators showing signs of slowing growth. This could raise concerns about the health of the economy and further dampen investor sentiment. Earnings season is underway, and some companies have reported disappointing results. This could lead investors to expect lower earnings growth overall, which could put downward pressure on stock prices. In total, I wouldn't call ES straight bearish, but I claim the bullish trend to weaken and I'm looking for shorts below the $4736 support line. Greetings, Ely
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Elysian_Mind
Weekly Macro S&P 500 AnalysisThe 4270.00 level can contain selling through Q1, above which 4634.50 remains a 3 - 5 week target, 4864.25 likely over the next 3 - 5 months. Upside, 4634.50 can contain weekly buying pressures, while closing above 4634.50 indicates the targeted 4864.25 by the end of February where the market can top out into Q2. Downside, a settlement below 4270.00 signals 4113.50 within 2 - 3 weeks, secondary long- term support able to contain selling into later in 2024 and above which a longer-term bullish dynamic remains in effect over that time horizon.
CME_MINI:ES2!
by SpecialeAnalysis
1-Treasury bills give the same returns as S&P 500 with less riskWall Street Investment banks are predicting various prices for the S&P 500 close at the end of 2024. But if the current 1-year Treasury Bill Yield is the same as the estimates then why bother buying the S&P 500? It would be safer buying bills and you may get an equal return. This piece of analysis will look at: Historical accuracy of Wall Street Banks S&P 500 estimates for the year ending Current predictions for S&P 500 estimates for year-end 2024 The current yield on 1-year Treasury Bills Comparison between the estimates for the S&P 500 vs. 1-year Treasury bills. Historical analysis According to research done by Bespoke Investment Group and by CNBC. Excluding 2008, the analyst overshoot of the S&P 500 actual performance over the past 15 years goes down from being over 9% off to a miss of 3.4%. And the fact that analysts overshot the actual market performance 12 out of 15 times, means they did undershoot it three times. When looking at their S&P 500 price target prediction, analysts undershot the actual performance in seven of the past 20 years.1 Historically, these forecasts have often underestimated the actual market performance, especially during the bullish period since 2009, when they were off target seven out of nine times. The average annual projection tends to be around 9.3%, aligned with the S&P's historical average gain. 2 So, overall, excluding the outlier of 2008, analysts tended to overshoot their predictions of the S&P 500 performance by a decreasing margin over the past 15 years, moving from an initial overestimation of over 9% to a more moderate miss of 3.4%. Their track record shows a pattern of overshooting the market's actual performance in 12 out of 15 instances, with just three instances of undershooting. Current predictions BMO Capital Markets: $5,100 Deutsche Bank: $5,100 RBC Capital Markets: $5,000 UBS: $4,700 Goldman Sachs: $5,000 Bank of America: $5,000 Barclays: $4,800 Wells Fargo: $4,600 Morgan Stanley: $4,500 J.P. Morgan: $4,200 Average = $4,800 Median = $4,900 Mode = $5,000 1-Year Treasury Bill The current yield on the 1-Year Treasury Bill is 5.061%. The reasons for the yield being somewhat high are: Strong Economic Data: The resilience of the U.S. economy, especially the robustness of the jobs market, has surprised many experts. Despite expectations for a slowdown, the economy continues to perform well, leading to higher yields. The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to cutting interest rates too quickly is another reflection of this strong economic backdrop. Fed's Cautionary Stance: The Federal Reserve is wary of cutting rates swiftly due to concerns about inflation and the tightness of the labour market. They aim to maintain a balanced approach, keeping rates at a level that won't spur excessive inflation but also won't hinder economic growth. The shift in Fed Messaging: Recent messaging from the Fed indicated less aggressive rate cuts in the future than previously expected. This change in outlook, particularly with the Dot Plot showing fewer rate cuts in 2024, has influenced bond market sentiment. Increased Treasury Issuance: The U.S. Treasury's substantial pace of issuing new debt has disrupted the supply-demand equilibrium in the bond market. The unexpected announcement of raising a significant amount of money through bond sales has added pressure to yields as more bonds flood the market. Yield Curve Dynamics: The yield curve, which had previously inverted (short-term yields higher than long-term yields), is now experiencing a lessening of this inversion. Typically, this occurs as short-term rates fall while long-term rates rise. However, the current situation is unique as the long-term yields are increasing while short-term rates remain relatively stable. The surge in Treasury yields reflects a confluence of factors: a resilient U.S. economy outperforming expectations, the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts amid concerns about inflation and a tight labour market, a shift in Fed messaging signalling fewer future rate reductions, increased government borrowing, and the unique dynamics of the yield curve. This unexpected rise in yields diverges from earlier predictions of a decline, shaping the current landscape of the bond market and influencing borrowing rates for consumers and businesses alike. One's prediction of the future yield in a year may be higher or lower. But regardless, when you buy a bond it is stuck at that yield since it represents the interest earned. S&P 500 vs Treasury bills Yesterday's close of the S&P 500 was $4,567.18. If we assume the S&P 500 will reach the average and median estimates that represents a 5.10% and 7.13% return on investment respectively. However, as we have established above looking at the historical analysis of Wall Street estimates they tend to overestimate. Most of the time the S&P 500 closed below their estimate. Wall Street estimates between 2000 and 2018 have an average overshoot of 4.40% from the table above. So there is reason to assume they will do the same this year. If we assume the estate's average and median return of 5.10% and 7.13% respectively are overshooting. That means we might as well invest in 1-year Treasury Bills. Why? Because Treasury bills are safer, and guaranteed return and if they are giving similar returns to the more risker S&P 500 over the next year then why bother with the risker alternative? It makes more sense to just buy 1-year Treasury Bills. Conclusion In the landscape of investment choices for the year ahead, the comparison between the S&P 500 and 1-year Treasury Bills offers compelling insights. The historical analysis of Wall Street's predictions demonstrates a consistent pattern of overestimation, signalling a potential trend that might repeat itself in the current estimates for the S&P 500 for year-end 2024. With the current projections showcasing potential returns for the S&P 500, it's crucial to consider the safety and reliability offered by 1-year Treasury Bills, especially given their current yield, standing at 5.061%. The compelling argument arises when assessing the historical trend of overestimation by financial analysts in forecasting S&P 500 performance. If these estimations continue to overshoot, as historical data suggests, the seemingly safer investment in 1-year Treasury Bills could provide comparable returns with considerably lower risk. The prudent approach might lean toward the Bills, given their guaranteed return and stability, particularly if they yield similar or better returns than the potentially riskier S&P 500. The choice between the S&P 500 and Treasury Bills becomes a contemplation of risk versus stability. While the S&P 500 might offer potential gains, the historical trend and current projections invite consideration of the Bills as a safer and possibly equally rewarding investment option for the upcoming year. Ultimately, it might be prudent for investors to weigh these factors carefully before making their investment decisions for the year ahead. 1 www.cnbc.com 2 seekingalpha.com
SP:SPX
by BlackbearTrader
S&P500 (@ES @MES)We are currently in an upwards rally in the markets With a trend fib being pulled from our larger lows we have a coinciding level of the 50% retracement converging with the top line of our rising wedge which is a bearish pattern (depending on how long this march takes we could meet our golden ratio 61.8% at the top of our wedge creating a yearly double top as a possibility also).....this is purely up to how fast we continue to move higher We must assume price will continue to respect this rising wedge (which is a bearish pattern which breaks to the downside 65%+ of the time) If we break out to the upside we can see a 61.8% retrace and grab a nice throw over or we have a blast of scenario and we march to new all time highs we must wait and see But for now i am expecting a pull back once we hit our 50% fib
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LucrorStrategies
S&P500 Hello Traders! Today I am focusing on the S&P500's next move and considering that we are approaching the Christmas period and that I am expecting a year-end bullrun towards 4700 I believe that at the moment the index could retrace towards 4525 with a maximum extension towards 4485 to load some long positions at better prices and then restart towards the highs. Targets are determined by fibonacci's retracement, let us consider the period of the extension of the last restart until exhaustion. Targets are the levels between 4525-4485. Thanks.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by IllyrianTrader
In-Depth Analysis of the S&P 500: November 2023 Recent Rally: The S&P 500 has shown remarkable resilience, rallying nearly 10% in November 2023. This surge has brought the index close to its 2023 intraday high, primarily driven by positive earnings among Big Tech companies and easing macroeconomic pressures​​. Current Position: As of now, the S&P 500 is positioned at approximately 4,514, which is just 2.1% short of its 2023 intraday high of 4,607​​. Market Sentiment: The absence of a significant sell-off post the recent gains indicates a continued optimism among investors, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trajectory​​. Forward-Looking Insights 2024 Forecast: According to a Reuters poll, the S&P 500 is projected to end 2024 with a modest gain of around 3%, finishing at approximately 4,700. This outlook is underpinned by concerns of a U.S. economic slowdown or potential recession​​. Inflation and Interest Rates: There’s an anticipation of inflation deceleration, with a more than 50% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut by May 2024. This could impact the S&P 500 positively, but Goldman Sachs suggests that rate cuts might not occur until the fourth quarter of 2024, aligning with stronger-than-expected economic growth​​. Earnings Growth: Earnings are expected to grow in the next six months, with overall S&P 500 earnings growth for 2023 estimated at 2.3%. For 2024, analysts predict a more robust earnings rise of 11.2% over the previous year​​. Sector Performance: The technology sector has been the best-performing sector in the S&P 500 for 2023, up 52% so far. This trend is expected to continue into 2024, reflecting the ongoing technology revolution​​. Analysis and Implications : Market Resilience: The S&P 500’s performance in 2023 highlights the resilience of the U.S. stock market, even in the face of macroeconomic uncertainties. The index’s rebound from its October lows signifies strong market sentiment and adaptability. Economic Indicators: The forecast for 2024, while modest, reflects cautious optimism. The dependency on inflation trends and Fed policies underscores the interconnectedness of the stock market with broader economic factors. Investment Strategy: Investors should consider the impact of these macroeconomic trends on their portfolios. With technology stocks leading the way, a focus on this sector could be beneficial. However, diversification remains key, given the uncertainties surrounding economic growth and interest rate policies. Conclusion The S&P 500’s performance in the latter part of 2023 and the outlook for 2024 suggest a market adapting to changing economic circumstances. While there are challenges ahead, the potential for continued growth, especially in the technology sector, offers opportunities for informed investment strategies. Investors should remain vigilant to changes in economic indicators, especially inflation and Fed policies, to navigate the evolving market landscape effectively.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by Mero-AI
SP500 Update 30.10.2023The SP500 index has been correcting since August. When we look at this correction, I also see that it is in line with the Elliot Wave principle. Last week, the index fell to $4115 and found the support level indicated by the volume profile indicator. I think that the index will find support around this level and return to the uptrend. Therefore, although I think that it will go down to $4060 this week, I think that it will close the week around the $4130 level. At such a close, I will receive a return confirmation. When I receive a return confirmation, I will review my share portfolio in the US stock market and make the necessary purchases.
SP:SPXLong
by YavuzAkbay
2
SPY $400-$410 Support LevelNo need to overthink this one. Pretty clear trend line on a linear chart. Why linear? Cause we aren't looking at multiples in price change, logarithmic wouldn't be best used here, and I have seen many charts showing false trend lines with a log chart. Logarithmic scales are useful when the data you are displaying is much less or much more than the rest of the data or when the percentage differences between values are important. This is not the case, we are only looking at price change from 2020-2023. $400-$410 is a strong support level which I expect to hold, or at least bounce off of. However, this does not mean I expect the SP500 to break to new highs. Ultimately, I cannot predict whether we crash or break to new highs, but I would lean to lower lows. So be cautious here. I plan to open some cheap $420-$430 November calls under $410.
AMEX:SPYLong
by bishopknight
SPY 2 Bearish Scenarios 1. Less Bearish Scenario We have a 1-2 1-2 with the impulse wave 3 down in progress or still to come. The difference between the 2 scenarios is the higher timeframe. In this less bearish scenario, this move down is part of the primary wave C in the correction that started Jan 22. Once is done a new cycle will begin. 2. Bearish scenario In the bearish scenario, this move down is part of the primary wave 3 and not wave C. We are still in the 1-2 1-2 waves down with minor wave 3 yet to come. All of these waves are part of the primary wave 3 in the correction that started on January 22. Are you berish? What other alternate scenarios do you see? Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational and educational purpose and does not serve as financial advice.
AMEX:SPYShort
by WavesInvesting
S&P500 - Long; For now ...This naturally rimes with the Nasdaq signals and with the overall global equities outlook. Here, two opposing forces are the most significant factor; 1) The unfolding (and enduring!) USD strength - Downward pressure ; 2) The massive, continuously inbound (to US) capital flows , primarily from Europe - Upward pressure . Driven by the rapidly unraveling globalization (driven by a Europe which the US decided to turn into a bonfire that is now clearly visible from Alpha-Centauri, and a China which is dying of old age as the demographic apocalypse is hitting hard this year - 2023), these fundamental forces will likely make this year one for the records - especially when it comes index (equities) trading. Many, many trading opportunities to be expected, throughout this year, probably far more than in other periods. Laissez le bon temp roule!! ...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
8