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Sp500analysis

$SPX500USD US500 Continue to Build Upward PressureOANDA:SPX500USD We will have choppy times ahead. Target 4600 Above 4600 Vey Low Volume The sentiment is positive 4060 is support Technically Higher Highs Lower Lows We are slowly leaving the current ange The ranges are increasing The S&P 500 has rallied rather significantly during the course of the week to break above the 4200 level, showing signs of extreme strength. At this point, the market looks as if it is going to threaten the 4300 level above, an area that has previously been resistance. We have seen a lot of noise over the last several months, but the resiliency of the market is something that you have to pay attention to. As long as the market stays this resilient, it will be difficult to short anytime soon. The candlestick seems as if it is trying to tell us that the market has made up its mind finally, and that it decided that it’s going higher. If we can break above the 4300 level, then this becomes more of a “buy-and-hold” situation, but you can see that the gains have been hard won. With that, I think you get a situation where you are probably better off looking for short-term dips that you can take advantage of, as they offer value in what is becoming a very aggressive uptrend. That being said, if we were to turn around a break down below the 50-Week EMA could send the market lower, perhaps back down to the 4000 level, and even down to the 200-Week EMA which is currently near the 3770 level. However, it’s probably worth noting that momentum is definitely not on your side if you are going to take this position, and therefore you are probably better off looking for a move to the upside but expecting a lot of volatility. Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is not equally weighted, so it’s just a handful of stocks that make the difference.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by DaveBrascoFX
4
Weekly Update: Nothing Lasts Forever. NOTHINGI vividly recall a few years back having just finished labeling the above chart of the SP500 from inception. I labeled the chart and included most of the historical events that occurred over the course of that time. As a trader, I wanted to have a quick reference visual picture of price action during war time, innovation, and societal change, juxtaposed on my EWT count. Afterwards, I plopped on the couch and wanted to “Veg Out”. As a full-time trader and analyst, my mind was kaput. Exhausted... I wanted to watch something on TV that required no more of my brain energy. I turned on the History Channel and subsequently settled on this series called, “Life After People”. As the series progressed, I went from mentally exhausted to engaged. The simple summation of the series was that despite us having built sky-scrapers, cities, bridges, etc., if people we’re no longer around, the sum of the proof we ever existed on earth would eventually get overrun, deteriorate, and the final result would be recycled by the planet into the sum of its elemental parts. The series referred to this process as Entropy. I wondered if the time I spent laboring over the machinations of price action since pre-industrial America was in fact, the natural order of progression. Birth and death. Start and finish. I looked up the definition of Entropy and here it is. Entropy is a scientific concept, as well as a measurable physical property, that is most commonly associated with a state of disorder, randomness , or uncertainty . The term and the concept are used in diverse fields, from classical thermodynamics, where it was first recognized, to the microscopic description of nature in statistical physics, and to the principles of information theory. It has found far-ranging applications in chemistry and physics, in biological systems and their relation to life, in cosmology, economics, sociology , weather science, climate change, and information systems including the transmission of information in telecommunication. Every known thing, will eventually succumb to Entropy. I found the concept of entropy, captivating, thought provoking, and I couldn’t help but wonder if entropy applies to what I do. I’m a full time trader. When I am asked what I do for a living, that is always my response. But I also associate with being termed a financial pattern analyst, an Elliotition, or just a plain ole’ analyst. As an Elliotiion, I practice the financial forecasting principles discovered by RN Elliott in the early 1930’s. My association with Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) was a normal one, as I never conceded price action was random. Even as a young investment banker in my twenties, I always had this nagging notion, that however subjective or complex the stock market appeared to be, that eventually a simple construct would emerge that would lift the veil of the random, to allow for a more scientific methodology to answer the movements of stock prices and markets. My introduction to the principles of Elliott Wave Theory started that quest for answers to seemingly unanswerable. In Elliott Wave Theory, counter-trend patterns such as waves 2, 4 and B, are areas of potential complexity. It is within these particular wave degrees that some of the most obscure financial price action patterns come into view. From triangles, to WXY's, and the gamut of pattern complexity carves out their shapes here. To even the most seasoned Elliotition these areas can cause confusion, mislabeling and undoubtedly, uncertainty. In the intermediate sense, they mean less. But when observed in the larger cyclical timeframes, these areas are always associated with economic and/or societal change. The last financial supercycle waves took place on October 1929 wave (I), and April 1932 wave (II). Post 1932, financial prices have advanced seemingly unabated for 90 years. During this 90-year timeline, humanity has advanced in technology, medicine, communication, etc…all of which have impacted living conditions and average life span. These advancements changed migration patterns, mobility and communication. I can’t help but think, is now the precipice of where our 90 year advance and the natural order of entropy have hit a tipping point and henceforth, entropy now has statistical favor? Granted I am not skilled to discuss societal matters or medicine, etc…but from an analysts perspective…Is flat to down now the path of least resistance in the markets for the foreseeable future? Along the way of the 90 year advance in the SP500 you can see the historical events that have occurred and their impact on price action. Those price action sub-divisions were the result of the best and worst of times post 1932. My children, now grown adults, were financially shaped most by the 2008 financial crisis. However, in the grand scheme of super-cycles…you can barely make out those declines on the above chart. The final anecdote I’ll share is in 1991, when my wife and I bought our first home. Making what we believed to be one of the largest purchases we would make in our young lives, we watched mortgage rates as they flucuated. Then, we pulled the trigger to lock in rates, due to a short term dip, and at the time, felt we were wiser than most. So happy with our shrewdness in locking in 9.75% APR on a 30 year fixed mortgage. In retrospect, mortgage rates never went back above 10%. The last two decades, fiscal policy was on a longer term trajectory to 1-3%. We were not the gurus we made ourselves out to be back then. Maybe that trajectory down was a reversion to the mean in the post Larry Summers Fiscal policy of the mid to late 1970’s. Seems so now with the benefit of hindsight. But now it feels like that again…but this time the reversion to the mean is a post Ben Bernake fiscal policy. I can’t say for sure, as I do not posses that kind of foresight with respect to interest rates. What I can say, is having analyzed 150 years of price action, financial entropy is starting to rear it’s head. If this is in fact starting price action of a supercycle wave (IV). The buy and hold strategy is dead. This will be a traders market for at least the next two decades, or more. Case in point…observe the area in the red box on the above chart. This area is a primary circle wave 4 of one lesser degree within a cycle wave III. That wave 4 consoldation lasted from 1996 until the beginning of 2013. That was manageable. That was also 17 years of price action digestion from the previous 1974 stock market bottom. Since our previous supercycle events, we have experienced wars, advancements in technology, medicine, migration patterns OH AND WE EXPERIENCED a global pandemic. Mirroring what led up to previous (I), (II) wave degrees. I don’t post this to scare readers, nor do I seek ANY attention. I do not ever see myself as being referenced as the trader who called the top of some market in some time. I forecast these things to evaluate if I can make money as a trader from the forecasts. In conclusion, I’ll leave you with one of the wisest quotes I ever heard as it pertains to what I wanted to achieve as a trader when I started. Its not from a wise greek philosopher. Its from Cuba Gooding Jr. in the 1996 movie Jerry Maguire. “I’m already famous…now just show me the money”
SP:SPX
by maikisch
4
Which Path Will Prevail?Time to view all possibilities after a weak Friday of movement. I have developed an indicator that identifies Wave 3s, wave 3 of wave 3, and the end of corrective waves (2, 4, or B) which can be found here: . Some wave 1 and wave A ends will get a signal, but it takes other analysis to identify those points. Applying that script to the chart at the intervals below, may aid in identifying where the market is. The indicator on the chart is the second row of indicators called EW_3_v2. Here is the 10 Minute Chart: I have placed all of the locations of data from the macro waves which I will walk through. This chart shows Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 at 1050 (eastern time) on August 2. Next signal aligns with end of Minor wave 4. Next signal aligns with the probable Minuette wave 3 ending in Minute wave 1 inside of Minor wave 5 inside Intermediate wave 5 at 1500 on August 4. Next signal was likely Minute wave 4 inside Minor wave 5 at 1550 on August 8. Next signal was Intermediate wave 2 at 1000 on August 10. The next and final apparent signal was a wave 3 ending at 1350 on August 10. This signal could be Minuette wave 3 inside Minor wave 1 possibly inside Intermediate wave 3. Next is the 15 minute chart: The first indicator of Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 from August 2 remains. Next signal is Minor wave 4 ending and the currently marked end of Intermediate wave 2 on August 10. Next is the 30 minute chart: which identifies the same points of interest and Minor wave 3 endpoint is indicate instead of the Minor wave 4 ending. I use this macro to micro to macro scale of chart viewing to confirm or identify possible points of interest. The main hourly scale only identified the end of Minor wave 3 which was the original job of my wave 3 indicator. Based on this, the main chart above outlines the 3 paths. The left chart is if we are in Intermediate wave 3. Ultimately the market should move down this week if this is the current location. The middle chart assumes we are earlier on than expected and that the low from August 11 was only the end of Intermediate wave 1. This would mean the market should move up for most of this coming week. The retracement percentiles have not changed and on the chart. Possible top target would be in the 4510-4525 area. The main issue with this theory is based on the location of signals from the 10, 15, and 30 minute charts. They do not align well if all of last week’s movement was only Minor wave 5. This is my skepticism with this chart. The right chart assumes we are in Minor wave C of Intermediate wave 2. This would see the market move up early in the week but top before midday Wednesday. While this path is quite plausible and the prior target zone holds, the wave 3 indicator analysis would have placed wave 3s in the wrong location which is my skepticism for this theory. Basically, we have three potential paths this week. I will monitor to see which one plays out. I am back in sideline mode in the short-term until the path forward is clearer. Longer-term puts likely remain safe as that is the overall market direction.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
S&P 500, 7/6/23For Thursday, 4393.25 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 4552.25 remains a weekly target able to contain weekly buying pressures.   Closing above 4552.25 signals 4624.50 within 3 - 5 days, able to contain buying through July, and the formation settle above for yielding the 4808.25 longer-term objective by the end of August or sooner.   Downside Thursday, breaking/opening below 4393.25 allows 4372.00, also able to contain weekly selling pressures and the level to settle below for reversing momentum into next week, 4305.50 then likely by the end of next week where the market can bottom out through July.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P 500 Pushing to 6,000 after Wedge BreakFalling Wedge has formed with the S&P 500 since 1 July 2021. We then recently had a breakout above 3,991 which confirmed upside to come. With the strong Engulfing up candles, we can expect the price to soar in the next few weeks. That is if the trend does hold and doesn't cause a fakeout. Price>200 RSI>50 My first target is at 6,000. SMC Below the Falling Wedge, there is a clear sign of Sell Side Liquidity. This is where Smart Money buys into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter into their trades. This causes the price to rocket up each time it touches this Order Block. Now we'll need a strong catalyst for upside to continue. I am rooting for this one...
SP:SPXLong
by Timonrosso
S&P500 hits target, Time for a correction?The S&P500 has hit our first target a couple of days ago. Now the price is at the lower level of the resistance zone. This could mean that a correction is due. I believe that the resistance will be either broken or held at the end of the week. In this case, the most likely scenario is that the resistance will hold, and that we'll see lower prices for the upcoming weeks. This post gets invalidated the moment the lower resistance level breaks.
SP:SPXShort
by FetchTeam
SP500 Bearish ScenarioThe #SP500 diverged 61% from the trend it had referenced since 1940. When we look at such divergences in history, we see that the index has returned to the reference trend. The beginning of this reversal is usually confirmed by a close below the SMA9 on the 3-month timeframe. This level is currently displayed as $4174. In a possible bear scenario, EMA60 or $2651 will guide us for the priority return level. Finally, EMA120, which is already at the same level as the reference trend level, will act as the last support. In addition, looking at the SP500 index in the daily time frame, the McClellan Oscillator, which has been working very successfully since 1900s, turned negative last week. However, another factor that can contribute to my analysis is that the monetary and fiscal policies made by HSBC today are not compatible with the bond and stock markets, and that the current recession will go further.
SP:SPX
by YavuzAkbay
S&P 500, 6/22/23For Thursday, 4444.50 can contain session strength, below which 4352.50 is likely intraday, 4257.50 in reach by the end of next week, where the market can bottom out on a weekly basis, possibly into later July.   Upside Thursday, pushing/opening above 4444.50 signals 4462.50, while closing today above 4444.50 indicates 4503.50 within several days, able to contain buying through next week and the point to settle above for yielding the 4613.00 longer-term objective within several more weeks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P 500, 6/21/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.   On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P 500, 6/20/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.   On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months. - For Tuesday, 4451.75 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 4606.50 remains 2 - 3 week objective.   Upside Tuesday, 2522.50 can contain session strength, while closing above 4522.50 should yield 4606.50 by the end of next week, able to contain buying through July.   Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4451.75 allows 4404.25 intraday, able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for indicating a good weekly high, 4299.50 then expected by the end of next week, where the market can place a weekly low, possibly into later July trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P 500, 6/16/23For Friday, 4446.50 can contain selling through next week, above which 4603.25 remains 2 - 3 week objective.   Upside Friday, 4509.00 can contain session strength, while closing above 4509.00 should yield 4603.25 by the end of next week, where the market can top out through July activity.   Downside Friday, breaking/opening below 4446.50 allows 4395.50 intraday, able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for pivoting the market south into next week, 4263.75 then expected within 3 - 5 days, where the market can place a weekly low.   Overall, a weekly settlement today below 4446.50 will keep 4185.00 in reach by the end of July.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P 500, 6/15/23For Thursday, 4399.00 can contain intraday weakness, the targeted 4441.25 - 4446.50 area in reach and able to contain buying through the balance of June.   Holding below 4441.25 allows 4203.75 long-term support by the end of July or sooner, while closing today above 4446.50 signals our 4600.00 longer-term objective over the next 2 - 3 weeks.   Downside Thursday, 4367.50 can contain session weakness, while closing below 4367.50 indicates a good weekly high, 4263.75 then expected within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4186.75 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P 500, 6/14/23For Wednesday, 4402.50 can contain intraday weakness, the targeted 4436.00 - 4446.50 area in reach and able to contain buying through the balance of June, once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 4203.75 within 3 - 5 weeks.   On the other hand, closing today above 4446.50 signals the 4596.50 longer-term objective over the next 2 - 3 weeks.   Downside Wednesday, 4353.00 can contain session weakness, indicates a good weekly high, 4263.75 then expected within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4188.50 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P 500, 6/13/23For Tuesday, 4348.75 can contain intraday weakness, 4385.00 in reach and able to contain intraday strength.   Pushing/opening above 4385.00 allows 4409.00 intraday, able to contain session strength and the level to settle above for yielding the targeted 4430.50 formation tomorrow, where the market can top out into July activity.   Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4348.75 signals 4328.75, able to contain session weakness.   Closing today below 4328.75 indicates 4263.75 within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4190.25 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P 500, 6/12/23The 4203.75 long-term resistance area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4578.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.   On the way up, 4425.50 can contain weekly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4425.50 indicating 4578.50 within 3 - 5 weeks, able to contain buying on a monthly basis and the formation settle above for accelerating the 4808.25 longer-term objective to within 2 - 3 months.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 4203.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months. - For Monday, 4346.00 can contain intraday weakness, 4385.00 in reach and able to contain intraday strength.   Pushing/opening above 4385.00 allows 4409.00 intraday, able to contain session strength and the level to settle above for yielding the targeted 4425.50 formation the very next day, where the market can top out into July activity.   Downside Monday, breaking/opening below 4346.00 signals 4309.25, able to contain session weakness.   Closing today below 4309.25 indicates 4263.75 within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4192.00 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
QQQ: I might be wrong (Inverted Chart)I have been a staunch bear since about March. Since the lows expected a nice bounce but that we would resume the downtrend at some point. Nothing has convinced me that this market would not do anything besides have another period of pullbacks, until I inverted the QQQ today. From this perspective, I cannot help but see the very real possibility of a double top at the very least. At that point though, there is no reason we couldn't keep going and make new highs. The macro economic conditions are not ideal in the slightest but this might be the kind of bull that is largely absent retail and will say that way until we actually start to top. A bull, minus retail, is what this looks like. You are not having investors capitulate easily at all. Buyers have been positioned large and they plan on staying there for a while. Very hard to say. This is by far the hardest market to judge, that I personally have participated in. I am thinking about taking some long positions in certain companies, maybe even the Qs but I will be doing so cautiously.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Goontata84
1