S&P500 continuous or reversal?S&P500 weekly is uptrend now but have weak trend and volatility. Maybe it will reversal in near future.
Sp500analysis
SPX clear breakout targets 4400-4500Hello, everyone.
My previous idea a week ago had a bearish outlook on SPX.
However things have changed, as we now have a clearly defined outbreak in the RSI.
The target range now is 4400-4500.
Depending on how the market opens on Tuesday. I may open long position.
Good luck everyone.
Stay safe, stay liquid.
Big Short On SPX500 According to the US30 analysis, the price of spx500 can also have a down trend in the long term
Are we halfway through a 3rd market cycle since 1932?This idea aims to visualize the market cycles in place since the great depression. Based on analyzing the cycles we can see some similarities which we may be able to use to our advantage. According to this analysis we are currently halfway through the 3rd cycle which started after the GFC in 2009. We had 2 bear markets since then which were both less than 50% in magnitude. All other information is on the chart!
Simple ABC correction idea for SP500Sharing a simple yet very visual idea of what could be happening with SP500 in terms of Eliott Wave.
We would be in an ABC correction, A finished, B in course, near to its end, C to happen in the future.
In the end, uptrend.
So short term, LONG for a little while, might end anytime soon.
Medium term, further correction (SHORT).
Long term, LONG.
SPX analysis and predictionIn this post I will be making some projections and will also try to walk through the thought process to make those projections.
Note: This is not Finacial Advice these projections are just some calculations based on the data we have currently, if the data changes, projections are likely to not play out.
I am sure many of you might have already seen this rising wedge pattern on the chart on Weekly timeframe suggesting a drop in price over the coming weeks. But the thing with patterns is that they are subjective, and based on what your bias is you may see only certain types of patterns on the chart, that's why it important to remain neutral and look at the data objectively from all perspectives.
Here are some other patterns which we can draw on the SPX.
1. Ascending Triangle about to break to the upside
Symmetric Triangle is a pattern of indecision which is About to break to the upside
So, we have three different patterns on the chart, one bullish, one bearish and one indecisive. We need a way to break the tie between patterns to find out which one has the higher probability of winning.
Let's take help from indicators.
I have added RSI on the weekly chart, here the picture starts to become slightly clear, we have RSI rising buy in a wedge which is a bearish structure and likely to breakdown over the coming weeks.
Let's Zoom in a bit get a clearer picture, here is the chart on Daily TF
I have added all the bearish divergences I see.
Based on above analysis, the picture is becoming clearer, we have one bullish, one bearish pattern on the chart, but we also have one bearish pattern on RSI and several bearish divergences which makes probabilities in the favor of bearish pattern playing out higher.
Now if we look at all the patterns, except the bearish pattern all other patterns have run out of room and are about to break out to the bullish side, which can create turbulences in the execution of the bearish patterns over coming days and weeks, but the divergences are in front of us ,there less and less people willing to buy at these levels , so if we start to move up a bit its likely to fall down fast.
Now that we have established that the probability is higher for bearish side to play out let's make some measurements for targets.
I have trend-based fib time to help us with times when the Pivots are likely to form, based on the theory pivots are likely to form, including and between .382 and .618 projections of the trend.
I have also added two measurements of the Falling wedges we have one in green and another one in blue, the green measurement of green wedge falls at a remarkably interesting time (19th of June) and 5 days before that we have FOMC events which are known to create pivots.
I have also added a trend line from the top which caught the previous bottom and the green measured move falls perfectly on that line. Now if the line holds, I am expecting only a temporary relief, and continuation downwards towards the second measured move due to the wedge in color blue.
I have added two harmonic Structure which appear on both weekly and Daily Timeframes for the longer term measured move.
PRZ of these structures falls precisely close to the measured move and the red trendline intersections.
Now that we have long term movement captured, let's look at short term movements.
We are forming a diamond pattern on Daily TF, this pattern has 50/50 change to break to either side, but if this pattern is formed after a move up, the probability is slightly higher for a break to the downside. I have added measured moves and tried to match it with the larger pattern (disjoint channel), this move intersection with time is also an interesting one as it falls on the weekend of 9th June and on the first day of next week ( 13th June ) we have CPI release.
If you like my content, then please boost and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
Keep learning and Happy trading All.
SPX Swing Trade, History repeating (CPI incoming)The chart is self-explanatory, I have highlighted in the chart where we saw remarkably similar price action in the past.
I have identified two different structures in the chart, a parallel channel, and a disjoint channel. We are currently trading in the disjoint channel. A disjoint channel has expanding edges which have same slopes locked in opposite directions.
We entered the Current Disjoint channel from a parallel channel trending upwards which is exactly what happened in the past, the only difference is size of these channels, in past we had larger Parallel and disjoint channel compared to what we have now.
The small size of channels this time indicates reduced volatility overall, which if it happens at the end of an uptrend, means we are topping out.
Let's make some predictions based on this.
If we look at the current price action, it is forming a bull flag (highlighted in the chart) , I have also highlighted the measured move of the flag. If the flag plays out its measured move intersects directly into the top of the disjoint channel as well as the August high. Which I believe should be the top or close to it.
In case bull flag fails , and we first drop a bit then we can look at that the blue line, it is placed for 10th May CPI Day and if we move up on that day, we are still intersecting close to the August High and top of the disjoint channel.
Apart from the above structures we also have a harmonic structure with its PRZ falling right onto Aug high.
If you like my content then please boost and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
Keep learning and Happy trading All.
SPX Short Day TradeLooking at the short execution of the bearish harmonic PRZ, confluent with the .786 and 0.886 retracement of the whole move up It's a day trade. It can be a swing trade as well based one's risk capacity for Swing Trade SL is much higher at 4280.
Alternate View of the chart with all the levels of interest.
I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned and if you like my content and would like to learn from my experience hit like and follow me for getting notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming tutorials on technical analysis and several technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to analyze any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
Keep learning and Happy trading All.
SP500 could fall to 3800 supportSince the beginning of the year, SPX tried to pass 4200 several times and failed each time.
With the recent failed attempt on the first of May, we can consider this level a very strong ceiling for the index and could expect a test of support.
I'm bearish on the medium term and traders could look to sell rallies around 4100.
Such a trade with a stop above resistance would also have a comfortable R: R of around 1:2.5
US500 S&P Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video we take a look at the #US500 #S&P closely, revealing that it has reached a substantial resistance level and rejected now finding support. Additionally, there is a gap in price below it and an accumulation of sell orders in the form of stop losses that could be a target for bigger players. Throughout the video, we delve into trend analysis, price action, market structure, and price gaps. We also briefly mention a possible trading opportunity.
S&P 500Weekly Idea on S&P 500 SPY
but before that I recommend to wait for FOMC interest rate decissions this coming MAy 2-3,
This week maybe Sideways no real moves.
Trade base on your own decissions,
FOllow for more
SP500 Gann Square AnalysisThe SP500 index, which is in a downtrend in the long term, tries the trend many times. If the trend is broken, it will target the next trend follower level of $4400. If it is rejected from the trend, it must hold on to the arc.
S&P 500 Index Analyze !!!S&P 500 has been moving on Ascending Channel for about 12 years😱. S&P 500 had an Impulse wave with an Extended 3rd Wave . When wave 3 is extended , we can use from Elliott Wave Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Guidelines of extended waves :
🔅 If wave 3 is extended , waves 1 and 5 are often nearly equal in magnitude and duration.= This guideline is running correctly on my chart✅ = The end of the main wave 5 (Zone): 4505 until 4182
🔅If wave 3 is extended , then wave 4 often ends at the level of sub-wave 4 of 3 and is quite shallow (retraces 23.6% – 38.2% of wave 3). This guideline is running correctly on my chart✅
🔴 Heavy Resistance Zone : 5817 until 5348 .
S&P 500 Index Analyze Timeframe 2 Weeks ( Log Scale )
❗️ Note ❗️: I expect that S&P 500 would go down at least until the middle line of ascending Channel .
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Waiting for confirmations to short ES - SP500 - US500
Hello Everyone,
This is my analysis about the SP500, since we're having a bad data on the PMI Services and if Friday delivers a bad interpretation of the NFP news, i want to see a retracement into the premium key levels and see in a lower timeframes a confirmation of a bearish move, then i'll proceed to short and targeting the fair value area and a lower prices.
This is not a financial advice, the idea is for study purposes. In any case, it is not meant to give you a signal.
This is just a way for me to read the markets.
S&P 500 W1 AnalysisAccording to 3 Months Analyzing and monthly candle, here we can expect bullish wave.
S&P 500 3M AnalysisHey Traders, Trendline based on two major monthly (yearly) pivots.
I think there is a high probability of second FTR retest.
US500 Trading in a triangleHello Traders,
on higher timeframes CURRENCYCOM:US500 is trading on a triangle. For the moment we don't know where will be a breakout so we're trading inside of it.
Next target probably the 3850 level.
S&P500 wants to go up!In my last analyses about the SPX , I spoke about a bottom of the index. The price was in the process of breaking the resistance when I created that post.
De deciding factor was whether we could create new support out of old resistance, which is happening right now.
First, the lower part of the zone was touched and made the price bounce. Now, we're witnissing the upper part of the zone being turned into support. Once this process has finished, the new uptrend can officially begin.
Market Bias & Top Stock Watches - 3/28/2023 - Bear ChopBias: Quite a bit of resistance above but not a clear void below, may just chop. QQQ has less support holding it up.
Top Watches: Long - BABA, PARA, MKC. Short - AAPL. COIN, HD.
Tune in to my stream at 9:25 EST for my full list of top stock watches and to watch me trade them Live!
Follow @JLaing for a timely morning bias of the market like this, top stock watches, and live day trading every morning!
BOOK of SAMUEL: DAVID V GOLIATHWow! This is a first for me, in such a large timeframe. Looking at both patterns forming. The larger head & shoulders pattern may take precedence, as it is generally considered to be a more significant pattern. If the H&S pattern is confirmed, it would suggest that the uptrend is ending and that a downtrend may be beginning. However, if the Inverted H&S pattern is also confirmed, it could indicate that the trend is changing and that an uptrend is beginning.
S&P500 Index Range Shifted UpQuite recently the Fed is adding $300B on it's balance sheet to save the economy from banking crisis. The move is effectively reversing the QT to temporary QE. As a result the amount of money supply circulating on the market is increase as shown on this Index Value Rainbow Indicator. Based on these fact we can expect the S&P500 index price range will be shifted up for quite significant amount higher than my previous prediction. S&P500 price could be moving somewhere between 3750 - 4400 in couple months to go.
We are using Index Value Rainbow indicator to measure the value of stock market index across various major indexes. This indicator shows multiple value of base Money Supply or Net Liquidity. For US market Net Liquidity formula is as follow:
NL = FBS - ( TGA + RRP)
NL = Net Liquidity
FBS = Fed Balance Sheet
TGA = Treasury General Account
RRP = Reverse Repo
SP500- 3850-3800 zone holds the keyAs I explained before, I don't think has turned bullish and the 4200 zone should offer great resistance.
Indeed, from that zone, the index has started to drop, and although we have had a mini up trend in the past 2 weeks or so, the rise is anemic and clearly corrective.
Yesterday's strong bearish engulfing could announce a new local top and lower high in place and we can assist a new leg down in the next weeks.
A key level for bulls is the 3800-3850 zone and if they are unable to hold that level, a new test of 3500 is very probable.
TRADE UPDATE: TARGET REACHED - SP500Our short term trade paid off nicely even though it took 5 days.
The price headed to our target price of 4,008.
We now need to bank our profits and move on to the next trade.
Now we have a gap that is still to fill and we have orders to still fill on the daily (Fair Value Gap).
But I'll let you know!
