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ES - Ridiculous is the New Norm 11/25/2020ES at the daily view. Welcome to 2020 where "ridiculous" is now an average Tuesday. The only thing that hasn't changed are permabears complaining every single day. What has changed are the permabulls are now more annoying. The rotation from growth to cyclical definitely blew away shorts. In fact, financials, energy, and industrial were among the most shorted sectors since April. Now with this rotation, those shorts were just relentlessly hunted. It's also why RTY has been rising like no tomorrow. Would there be a pullback? That depends on how many shorts are left. If we do pullback, what are the chances that there are a lot of trapped shorts below - waiting to get out? Pretty high. When the ES pulls back, there will likely be some big bounces on the way down. That's the irony behind permabears. They wish for a crash as big as March 2020. However, it's their trapped shorts and short covering that kept the rally going all this time. Basically, permabears' worst enemies are other bears (not the Fed). When will the ES pullback? No idea. It's always harder to time a top than a bottom. There are no reliable resistances at these levels. VIX is still forming a bottoming pattern. This week is also a Holiday Week which are notoriously low volume. Meaning, sellers are unlikely going to appear this week. There might be a mini-pullback tomorrow, but I'm not expecting anything grand. VIX did hit a support level. Judging by the low volume price action, the momentum seems to be sideways to up. I'm steering clear of ES until it pulls back. I am not confident at all where the resistances are. However, I am much more confident of where the good supports are.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Itsallsotiresome
3
Vaccine is coming. What is next for the US stock market?Mixed fundamentals resulted in a flat trading last week. Stock bulls are betting on the coronavirus vaccines and rumors out of Washington that stimulus negotiations might be back on the table before 2021. Pfizer-BioNTech is expected to file for emergency use authorization with the FDA today, which is nearly 95% effective. That means vaccine distribution could start happening within just a few weeks. Failure to deliver it on time can bring sell-off in stocks. Besides, even all these positive news did not help the market to break the resistance. Weekly chart has clear RSI divergence and ‘Island” pattern. Another failure to break to the upside can bring the SP500 back to 3200 (SPY 320). It was reported yesterday that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has agreed to resume talks with Democrats on another pandemic relief bill. However, Congress is also readying for negotiations on government funding that needs to be passed before a December 11 deadline, that, if missed, could lead to a government shutdown. There is a lot of skepticism about whether Republicans and Democrats can successfully negotiate both a stimulus and funding deal amid the current political animosity. Nothing probably happens with any type of new stimulus until we figure out who will be sitting in the White House after January 20. Despite coronavirus infections continuing to surge and more communities across the U.S. implement measures to stop the spread, we see strong enough economic reports.. New Jobless Claims ticked up by about +30,000 last week but the 4-week moving average fell as did Continuing Claims. The data does not indicate that the surge in Covid-19 cases is translating to widespread job losses, at least not yet. The pandemic has certainly not been bad news for the housing market with October Existing Home Sales skyrocketing to a seasonally adjusted rate of 6.85 million, more than +26% above last year's level and the highest rate since February 2006. Sales of homes over the $1 million mark more than doubled last month while declines were witnessed at the lowest range. Mortgage rates this week hit a new all-time record low for the 13th time this year. With all these in mind, we can only rely on pure technical analysis. “Island” formation and bearish divergence can be early reversal signs. However, breaking above weekly resistance can result in an aggressive rally to 3900 in extension (SPY 390).
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
2
The Bulls love Biden! 🗳️Or do they? In an impulsive wave, the bulls manage to push above the 3550 mark. A major resistance that makes us abandon our primary expectation, as indicated in our last post. This scenario is now our alternative count, which has to be considered with a 42% probability. To further strengthen the upwards move, we need to see a quotation of 3572 and higher, plus a break out above the current all time high. If the bulls manage to deliver, the way is paved for 3800 points and higher. We are at a crossroads to see if the breakout caused by the election results will be sustainable. As long as we hold above 3500, the SP500 is set up for higher notation.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
SP500- Time to sell it?Since the election SP500 had a good run with the price rising around 10%. The vaccine announcement brought a lot of optimists into the market but the rally was short-lived and failed to maintain gains above resistance. It is possible for a false break to be in place and in this case SP could drop and retest the lower boundary of the range. I'm bearish SP as long as the price stays under 3650 zone on the daily close bases and I'm looking for a good point to entry
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by Mihai_Iacob
1
AUDNZD SUPPORTS S&P500Hello traders! AUDNZD and S&P500 are in positive correlation, not tick by tick, but mostly they are moving together. Even when we see a deviation, they sooner or later somehow catch up each other. Well, after recent mess up and down on S&P500, seems like it remains bullish, it's just in consolidation mode before the uptrend resumes and it can be easily supportive by AUDNZD currency pair, where we see a quite clear three-wave corrective decline within uptrend. It's mainly because of strong Australian Dollar in risk-on sentiment. So, with current strong bounce on both, AUDNZD and S&P500, seems like we will probably see them back to highs in the upcoming days/weeks, especially if AUDNZD starts breaking above channel resistance line. Generally speaking, stocks remain bullish, so as Aussie in risk-on sentiment, we just have to be aware of short-term, intraday corrective pullback early next week. Trade smart! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
Still aiming at 3000! 🎯Due to the bullish action, we had to update our chart. We put a bullish alternative on the chart. At the moment, the bears are still in charge of the chart, and we see them aiming at the 3000 point mark. However, our alternative scenario depicted by alt. and the dashed arrows must be taken into account with a high percentage of 42%. Price action is in a crucial area right now. If the bulls manage to break above the Resistance at 3550, the SP500 could be on the breakout to 3800 and higher. Our primary expectation under the mentioned 3550 remains a further decline to about 3000. For further confirmation, we need some bearish action and prices to drop at least under the 3460 mark.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
The end is near! 🔚 🌍 The earth is turning against us, and it's time for us to board the spaceships leaving for Kepler-186f. Just kidding, it's not that bad! However, we still have to expect another -15% in the S&P500 for the upcoming weeks. Our target area for the correction lies between 2900 and 2650. From there, we expect major support by the bulls and a turnaround towards higher quotations. The next hurdle the bears face on their way down is the last low at around 3200 points. This support has to be broken for a final confirmation of the correction. What's your expectation for the upcoming weeks? Stay save and happy trading!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by MarketIntel
Biggest Short Correction in Years (BE CAREFUL)We are very close to experiencing the biggest correction in years in the main US indexes. We can observe a clear divergence between the index dollar and the S&P500, when it should be a mirror. Something says something smells bad. We must bear in mind that the SP500 is at a significant top and that it is highly unlikely to break it due to the current social, economic and political situation. Also, all growth has been financed by the FED so there is a clear disconnect from reality and current affairs. Analyzing this scenario, we are seeing a potential strong long-term pullback, probably in a few months. - I would like you to comment on your ideas and opinions, that enriches us.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by MarfilCapital
1
S&P 500 BROKE AND RETEST PLAY - UpdateSP 500 Has managed to broke the upside trendline yesterday.From 3212.00 level it has rejected twice and makes a minor double bottom pattern and bounced after the primary touch in lower trendline.And managed broke the upside barrier we are expecting broke and Retest towards the lowerside support level comes around 3277.00 which is coordinating with trendline.From this level we can expect some buying activities and the potential target would be 3450.00 within this range 50% Fibonacci retracement level will act as testing ground for both the bull and bear The bigger dissimilar falling wedge pattern has formed too which is a clear sign of bulls taking some rest to move further towards north..It's a September midterm correction as the end starts the Bull is awake and ready to bounce back towards 3600.00 USA Presidential election will Influence the direction of market we can expect unusual market volatility in coming days Give a like if u love our work..
ULong
by forexorbit