S&P 500 Scay view Looking at the above chart with bearish RSI divergence makes me feel like the market is about to go down and start bleeding. But for Traders, there is an always opportunity for making money in any market movement
Sp500future
SP500 look for the 0618 🦐SP500 on the daily after going back at the previous high around 3400 level got rejected twice by the ema 21.
Price broke the daily support and can look now for the lower trendline which also correspond to the 0618 level of the previous bullish leg.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
It's Monday, not doomsday! ☕
Starting the week, the S&P500 continues the primary expectation and reaches the first target area for the current decline. On Sunday, the U.S. reported 32,186 new coronavirus cases, and several European countries have also seen a steady increase in COVID 19 cases over the past 24 hours spreading pessimism amongst investors. The World Health Organization predicts that daily coronavirus deaths in Europe will increase in October and November, raising concerns about a possible second lockdown in Europe. Meanwhile, several major banks have reportedly transferred large amounts of illegal funds over a period of almost two decades. HSBC, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered, and Bank of New York Mellon are among the banks involved in the report.
The minimum target for the current decline remains within the range of 3200 points. Below 3049 points, the way is paved for significantly lower quotations in the range of 2800 points. Since we expect new all-time highs in the long term, we will use the current drop to open long positions and thus position ourselves for the next rally.
In conclusion, we expect the current drop to reach the area of 3200 points before a bounce can be expected. We give the alternative scenario a 38% probability. The primary expectation remains that the index will reach a lower level of 2800 points, which is confirmed below 3049 points. However, in both scenarios, we expect at least a corrective bounce from the yellow target box, which will push the market back up towards 3440 points.
Grab some coffee, be awesome, and enjoy your trading day!
S&P 500 is not looking good up there! Let's have a look everyoneSo S&P 500 is not looking good on the weekly chart right now.
We got a bull run in 2020 up until 3600 and closed the candle with a long wick, which is bearish in my dictionary.
So if we start to correct right now, let's check the trend.
The Trend is broken by this week. It was not healthy as you can see. What says the indicators?
RSI is since 2018 in a bearish divergence to the actual price.
Macd is also interesting, we are days before a bearish crossing of both lines and as we all know, when the cross happens, the price is already down, so we must see in our crystal balls.
I also got for today my lovely Market Bottom Finder. As you can see the green shows the market on a volatility low end and you can see also macd and rsi showing the same things. A nice indicator to harden your buying intention. So as of now the indicators shows us low volatility, which means we are sitting at a beginning of a wonderful roller coaster.
Are you ready for the action? : )
_________________________
Disclaimer
In the context of this website and our advice, neither investment recommendations nor financial services in the sense of the legal provisions are provided. The purpose and content of these consultations are to provide the adviser with information and thus to be able to make decisions independently and without outside help. If a business registration is necessary, it will be carried out by the adviser himself. He is also responsible for the taxation of his profits. No liability is assumed in this regard.
The S&P 500 will tell us what it's up toThe S&P 500 will tell us what it's up to.
Many pendulum variations between center, upper and lower channel wall on the way down are conceivable.
It is important not to lose sight of the essential.
Advance Decline Line did great job. What is next?Last week was hot for stock traders. As we discussed SP500 rallied a bit higher and was rejected. The Advance Decline Line did its job perfectly. I think the market can retest 3500 or higher and if rejected, we can sell for 3200. We still can see a big rally this year. Cycles and Fed Funds forecast indicate the beginning of an uptrend at the end of September. Besides, the stock market is usually strong before Elections. But for now, let's focus on very short-term trades.
ES - Expected Price ActionThis is what i am expecting to see. This is the daily chart and i think this can go up to end of September. However, if it doesn't work until mid Sept, then we need to update the trend.
My ES target is $2500 but it's up to economy and covid.
This is not a financial or investment advice.
Pre-elections trading. ExplainedSP500 broke to the new highs. Volume is still very low and the Advance Decline Line doesn’t support this rise too. It is bearish. However, there is still a lot of momentum in this market. Likely we will see choppy trading with upside bias till the middle of September followed by a decline till the end of the month. Pay attention we are getting close to elections. With that in mind, I believe that pullback (if any) will be bought very fast. Besides, the Fed Funds forecast signals a rally coming at the end of September. The best thing we can do now is intraday trading. There is a chance for a swing trade, but only in a month from now.
/ES Elliott Wave CountsTwo potential Elliot Wave counts for the short and mid term. One count in blue, one in red.
SPX put in a weekly gap around 3272 and 3285, which could act as support for a wave B in the immediate wave 2 pullback. Mid-long term is bullish.
SP500 (Y20.P3.E2).Still bullish but a correction soonHi All,
Looking at the chart from a channel perspective, one can see that the price action is over extended with a daily and what looks like the weekly, both with bearish divergences.
One will then expect sooner or later for it to return to the average, in this case, towards the mean of the channel.
I believe a double top is taking place and if we see the indicators cross over, then that is the signal for a down ward correction.
Just like Gold or BTC , I don't see a big correction. I believe we will still have upward pressure based on the indicators.
OBSERVATION:
=================================================
> The price is completing a double top with a bearish divergence on the daily
> The price is over extended to the 3rd deviation of the channel
> Looking at the weekly indicators, we can see the orange energy below 60%, showing downward pressure is close near by
> We have the green rsi almost touching the red, another downward pressure indicator near in the making
> Since both RSI's are above 50 or 60%, we know at this time, that the pullback will not so deep, at this point
> The Stoch . is close to crossing over, the signals for a downward motion.
THOUGHTS:
=================================================
> Price will likely move towards the 21, 34, (black ribbon) or the 50 EMA , which are all within the channel, 1st deviation.
> Along with the fib. retracement, its my opinion we will make a small dip below the support line touching one of the moving averages.
Please give me a like or tick for this post.
Regards,
S.Sari
8 HRLY chart
Close up view on the weekly
Sell-off before new wave up?Some time ago we discussed a possible retest of 3400 in SP500. That is exactly what is happening right now. 3400 is the magnet now. The Advance Decline Line is weak. So, likely we will see a profit booking near the double top. Besides, we see signs of distribution in volumes. Big players are getting out of the market slowly during the last few weeks. I am looking to take short signals in this market. Based on the Fed Funds Forecast I expect this sell-off will give a great buying opportunity. However, let’s take it step by step.
Ascending Triangle on SP500?Hello, Traders!
SP500 is breaking out of a bullish accumulation pattern called the ascending triangle. It is important to wait for the price to make a pullback on this triangle.
But be careful, the market is very susceptible to bad news related to the virus, and the scenario can change at any moment.
It is worth noting that we are only 3.5% of ATH
Best regards.
FED Funds indicate big move is coming this autumnChoppy trading in SP500 continues. All declines were bought back quickly last week. It seems to be positive. However… Advance Decline Line doesn’t support this. It is negative in a short-term perspective. Based on cycle studies we can expect to get buy signal around 10 – 15 August. Till that time we will likely see more choppiness with a bias to the downside. I don’t think we are entering another wave of huge sell-off. We had a nice rally in this market and decline is just a normal pullback. GDP showed a big decline last week, but it turned to be positive for stocks as Powell said FED will do all to support the market. We have an interesting forecast based on FED Funds – a huge rally is coming at the end of September. Recent 2 years FED Funds has been one of the best indicators for swing traders. Let us see how it turns this time. For now, I keep focusing on very short-term trades.
ES in Another Bear Flag 7/28/2020ES at the 4 hour.
The ES is still in a giant bear flag pattern since July 23rd. With the Fed press conference tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if this gets pumped up for that press conference then starts dumping on Thursday.
The VIX right now is projected to break its wedge between 7/30 to 8/5. Obviously, I cannot get an exact date, but it's in that date range. The pullback last week was not enough to attract more buyers. The VIX is warning that a pullback is pretty soon. If this pulls it down to 3100s, then that should attract enough buyers to get a decent bounce from.
The ES is stuck right now because tech shares are being sold. However, non-tech sectors are finally getting bought.
Coming week can bring turbulence. ExplainedComing week can bring turbulence to markets. Special attention has to be paid to the SP500. The technical analysis is still neutral. We got rejection last week, but it happened with a low volume. It can’t be considered a valid swing failure. If 3170 – 3140 holds, we can see a retest of 3400 and possible double top formation. However, fewer stocks support this rally. We have seen the same scenario before each sharp decline. So, keep that in mind if you long the stock market.
The Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for the coming week. But likely we will not hear something new. Implementing negative rates looks doubtful. So, the dovish tone is all I expect from the Fed.
Extra jobless benefits disappear at the end of the month. Currently, 20 million Americans get an extra $600 a week. If there will be no fast extension of this payment, the income of the average unemployed person can fall to $200 a week. That will make people spend less. Less spending means less income for the retail business. Some of them will have to close. We have already discussed a big number of bankruptcies and their impact on the economy and the stock market. The situation looks dramatic.
The second-quarter U.S. GDP is another important data all traders are waiting for. Atlanta Fed forecasts almost 53% decline. Those numbers can shock the market and cause high volatility. Such expectation is a result of rapid COVID spread in the USA. The situation in the EU is more positive with a 12% GDP decline expected.
ES Historical Resistance Won the Battle 7/23/2020ES at the 4 hour view.
The red line is the historical resistance. It stopped the ES back on June 05-09. It stopped the ES again this week. Had it not held, the next resistance would've been 3330 which was the February gap.
I was getting a little worried there since the resistance was starting to breakdown. However, it held in the end. I am not confident that this resistance will hold for a third time.
VIX and VVIX was giving a warning for the past few days about a pullback. Well, the pullback came.
Keep in mind. With high liquidity levels, supports below may be stronger than traders think. I am not expecting another March 2020 crash at all. Market internals are stronger now than in late February.
Besides, here is a critical thinking question. How many shorts/bears do you think are trapped below? How many of them are waiting to get out of their underwater shorts? That's why I think there may be a bounce from below.
ES Historical Resistance Breaking Down 7/22/2020This is the ES at the 4 hour view. The historical resistance is starting to break down. I'm not too surprised actually.
There is a gap above at around 3330 from February that is calling to be filled. Furthermore, liquidity data suggests that liquidity is pretty strong now. So strong that it's drowning volatility runs as well as permabears' pride/egos.
This is why I keep hammering this point. Don't short a bubble. You will be wrong way more times than being right. It's simple mathematics. How many times were you wrong about calling a top? How many times were you right about calling a top?
This is why I wait for the price to come to me. I wait for the price to reach supports and ride my longs from the bounce. This is especially true when liquidity is high and the VIX is struggling to get above all of its daily moving averages.
What's more important? Being "right" months later or profit during those months? It's a question of ego vs being pragmatic.
ES Stopped by Historical Resistance 7/21/2020ES at the 4 hour. The ES was stopped by the historical resistance (red line) for a second time. The first time was in early June.
The VIX and VVIX were giving a warning for 2 days that some sort of pullback was coming. It's why I didn't go long here. I'd rather wait for the VIX to clear up and present me better long opportunities.
That said, liquidity is rising dramatically. That's apparent by now with the dollar weakening. I am not expecting very big pullbacks to be honest. That will upset a lot of bears, but that's how the market is right now.
Triple tops are actually pretty rare. Market likes to break supports or resistances by the third time. If we get a pullback and the market internals are still bullish, I don't think this resistance will hold a third time. After this resistance, the gap above from February (3330) will be calling.
ES Testing a Historical Resistance 7/20/2020I mentioned yesterday that the ES was hammering to the upside to escape its wedge.
It happened.
The next resistance would be that red line above at 3260. It was support back in 2017 and it acted as a resistance zone back in early June.
If this resistance doesn't stop momentum, then the next resistance would be 3330 which was the original bear market gap from February.
I don't think it will fill that gap there in this run... maybe the next run. VIX, VVIX, and P/C Ratio are starting to set up like early June.
I'm only missing two more warnings for a pullback: bonds rallying and FOREX traders selling off.
