Sp500index
Potential bearish dropPrice is reacting off an overlap resistance level and could reverse from this level to our take profit
Entry: 5247.64
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
Stop loss: 5265.25
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
Take profit: 5220.30
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SP500 : end of the rally?SP500 trade idea based on my thesis that this is all a big range for the months to come and the economic situation stabilizes (visibility, sentiment, etc)
It is a swing/core positioning trade so size is big and invalidation is on weekly close (yes, you need conviction when taking this kind of trade)
Mind your size, mind the broker your do your business with, etc.
NFA/DYOR
Could price reverse from the swing high resistance?Price is currently at the swing high resistance and could potentially reversal from this level to our take profit
Entry: 5258.22
Why we like it:
There is a swing high resistance
Stop loss: 5280.19
Why we like it:
There is an alignment with the 127.20% Fibonacci retracement
Take profit: 5218.49
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support and also aligns with the ascending trendline support
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Entrepreneurial SpiritIs this stock going to go up to Complete the other Leg of the 'W'? Pretty low risk Trade, imho. Let's make some greenbacks guys!!
S&P 500 - Correction And ContinuationHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of S&P 500.
--------
Explanation of my video analysis:
The S&P 500 has been trading inside of a rising channel formation for a very long time. We had the last retest of the lower support level about 6 months ago which was then followed by an expected rally of +25% towards the upside. If the S&P 500 now retests the previous breakout area which I mentioned in the analysis, there is a high chance that we will see a reversal there.
--------
I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
S&P500 about to test zoneWe can see the trend channel on the 4H and hours before the NYSE ope we will be sitting at key diagonal support levels. S&P tends to flash crashes in march and it won't be big of a surprise if we see a quick 4-8% test to lower levels. We also have the FOMC this week which could be the catalyst for such a move. The current bullish move looks exhausted already and the trend struggles to get more power towards the north.
S&P500 3 Months Trading Channel Hey guys, didn't post new set-ups because the market is quite boring right now.
But explored some ETF and found an idea for stable trades. As we know, ETF's and some pairs are like to move in long channels, which is pretty easy to trade.
Here at the S&P500 we can see the raising channel from 5th January and I mark the zones, where you can open long positions, as the channel is raising I will recommend to trade only long positions.
What we're looking for before open the position:
1) The price have to cross the support level of the channel
2) As a help you can use Awesome Oscillator (if the oscillator is changing color and starting to raise up) you can use this as confirmation to open the position.
IMPORTANT! Don't forget to follow RM strategy. Use SL orders a bit lower from price crossing the support line!
Trade stocks and ETF at BingX with no special requests, only using crypto by my link: bingx.com
Rally expansion with a correction to the degree ratioGreetings
Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
Three tracks to the bottom (cont)This is a follow-up to my analysis from the other day. The green track is the one for the 1968 model. It has held pretty close to the entirety of the whole correction so I favor this model for now. The 2018 model is pretty good. It is the yellow track. It was a short duration but had the lowest bottom. This would give us a bottom around 2700 which most of my other models are no longer favoring. It is good to see, but I am not favoring it as much as the 1968 model. The final model is the 2005 model and the magenta solid path. This model has one of the higher tops over the longer period of time. I do not like this model but it is possible. I figure the drop will be quicker and go below the prior low from October 2022. The 2005 correction did not see C go below wave A's bottom.
SP500 is on a strong uptrendWe have seen the SP500 create higher points on the higher timeframes and it seems that buyers are in control. We have seen price make a timid retracement today and this might be the higher low needed to continue higher. In case it retraces lower I am expecting the Fib retracement to serve as supports if needed.
ES SP500 LONGThursdays Daily candle displaced and closed strongly above Wednesdays high and the fractal swing high from last week.
DOL is the PDH.
I want to see H1 bullish arrays respected to then look for M5 bullish displacement entry.
NFP volatility tomorrow will surely impact whether or not this idea works out or not.
ES SP500 ShortMonday's price action saw ES/SP500 trade above Fridays highs, but failed to displace above Friday's high.
My bias is for price to trade to Monday's low.
I am looking for H1/H4 bearish levels to be respected, and will then look for m5/m15 entry once I see premium bearish arrays are being respected.
SPY to $460Overview
Utilizing trading patterns and consistencies between several technical indicators, I believe the equity market will begin to unload soon as traders collect their profits from the recent rally and prepare for the next FOMC meeting on 19-20 March.
Trading Patterns
SPY is currently undergoing a rising wedge which is a bearish trading pattern. Within the wedge, I outlined an impulse wave pattern which shows SPY at what may be the peak of the third wave. Rising share price on dwindling volume, in addition to divergences spotted on the RSI, MFI, and MACD, lead me to confidently believe a dip to around $460 is approaching.
Price Target
I used the support and resistance lines of the macro rising wedge to determine the paths of the impulse waves, assuming their troughs and crests will reach the respective lines. Presuming the rules of impulse waves hold true then the fourth wave cannot end pass the crest of wave one, which falls in line with the 50% retracement level of the third wave (blue and red Fibonacci tools). This level rests at a share price near $460.
Utilizing a larger Fibonacci tool to encompass the entire rising wedge and a projected fifth wave crest as 100%, the $460 share price is around the 61.8% Fibonacci level (when used in the uptrend).
Supporting Technical Indicators
The MACD shows a divergence as well as an approaching cross over its signal line from above.
While not as prominent as MACD, the RSI also shows a divergence between the share price and peaks within the RSI oscillator. I've highlighted the divergence by placing a horizontal line at the end of the first peak. It is also reflecting overbought signals.
The MFI shows a sharp negative slope but the SPY share price is still rising. This divergence, aligned with the signals of the other two indicators, suggests the share price may be about to drop.
Easing Inflation Rate Spurs Optimism for a Bullish Trend?Hi Realistic Traders. Here's my price action analysis on the S&P 500!
The CBOE:SPX has convincingly breached the double bottom, presenting a compelling signal for a potential bullish reversal. The price trajectory exhibits a sustained upward movement, concurrently shaping a continuation pattern recognized as the Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern. As this pattern unfolds, a subsequent breakout from the descending broadening wedge provides robust confirmation of a conceivable upward trajectory toward the specified target area. Beyond the prism of price dynamics, the oscillator has undergone a significant golden cross, adding another layer of confidence to the outlook and signaling the potential for a bullish market trend.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Recent Announcement of the Inflation Data
- In October 2023, the annual inflation rate in the United States decelerated to 3.2%, marking a decrease from 3.7% observed in both September and August. This figure also fell below market forecasts of 3.3%.
- The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, exhibited a marginal decline to an over two-year low of 4% in October 2023, down from 4.1% in the preceding month. Contrary to market expectations, which anticipated stability at 4.1%.
- The unexpected deceleration in inflation has fostered the anticipation that the Federal Reserve's assertive tightening cycle may have concluded. This development is instilling optimism for a bullish scenario in the market.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on
CBOE:SPX ."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below!
Another Leg Up Needed After PullbackAssuming the current market correction is a scaled down version of the 2000-2009 correction, we likely have one more leg up to complete the pattern. The RSI hit a bottom at the end of the A wave down in 2002 and 2022. Since this time the RSI had been producing higher lows with the exception of one cross in May 2006 and August 2023. This appears to fall in line with the internal B wave inside of the corrective up wave. If 2000-2009 is a template, the current market still needs to see the RSI moving average (white line) at the bottom cross below yellow trendline. This initial cross will likely occur near the final market top, assuming the market has not topped yet. This cross below should also coincide with a slight market pullback. All of this is expected in the yellow circle at the bottom of the chart.
While companies are thrashing low-balled earnings estimates, and profiting more thanks to higher prices, this will not continue. The consumer debt bubble is set to burst. High debt will significantly stop consumer spending on non-necessities. Others will go bankrupt. The debt holders will get crushed which in turn will hurt banks and companies. A massive correction is coming thanks to extra low interest rates for way too long. The correction will be significant and fast. The recovery on the other side will rebalance the market and lead to legitimate valuations down the road again. However, many companies, people, and countries will need to collapse first.
Patience and prudence is the keep to getting through the next 1-2 years.