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$4,900 a historic momentYesterday, the SPX closed above $4,900 for the first time in history. Now, the question is, can it close above this level for multiple consecutive days? If yes, it will be positive for the index. However, a breakdown below $4,900 will be slightly concerning. Similarly concerning will be if RSI, MACD, and Stochastic start reversing to the downside on the daily graph. As a result, we will keep monitoring the situation and update our thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the SPX and simple support/resistance levels. Illustration 1.02 While waiting to see what path the SPX will take, we want to note that investors’ confidence seems to be eroding in the Chinese markets despite the announcement of new stimulus measures in the last two weeks. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Its purpose is purely educational.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
1
SPX500 - BULLISH OR BULLISH? (TARGET 4910 AND BEYOND)A bit of a late post as the market is moving faster than my fingers can type but let's see how relevant this is regardless. Here is what I see: What is on the chart? (follow the steps) 1) A strong price accumulation that gives us a potential liquidity target for later on! For now bullish until said otherwise. 2) The BOS level that serves as support. 3) The formation of a trendline which is bullish. 4) Our 1 Hour bearish FVG that may stunt price temporarily. Hence my trajectory leading downwards first! 5) ( NOW ) An accumulation structure that may propel price or lead it lower to our GOLDEN LEVEL! 6) The entry of the Gods. Yes, I am very enthusiastic but if I were to enter, it is here. We have an FVG + fib reload zone + trendline + hourly Kumo. I mean what else does a trader need? A crystal ball? No. 7) The final target. If we're bullish, what better than an ATH as a target? As always, stay cold headed (unlike myself because when I see such a beautiful confluence of entry conditions, I just get excited) and happy trading! ;)
FX:SPX500Long
by Lexi_Is_Trading
SPX S&P 500 TO 5000 Sure, here's a bullish perspective on the S&P 500 index: 1. **New Bull Market**: The S&P 500 index has officially entered a new bull market¹²⁵. This is a positive sign for investors as it indicates a period of rising prices and investor confidence¹. 2. **High Interest Rates**: Despite high interest rates, which were one reason for the stock market decline in 2022, the S&P 500 has shown resilience¹. This could be an opportunity for certain stocks that benefit from these conditions¹. 3. **Strong Performance**: The S&P 500 index has continued to climb to new highs in recent days². This upward trend is a positive sign for investors. 4. **Rare Bullish Signal**: Stocks have flashed a rare bullish signal that suggests the S&P 500 is about to soar another 20% next year³. This signal has only occurred seven times over the last 44 years, leading to an average gain of at least 20% in the S&P 500 over the next year³. 5. **Diversification**: The S&P 500 includes around 500 large cap equity stocks, providing a diversified investment that spreads risk across many sectors². Information technology represents the largest sector, with 28.9% of the index².
SP:SPXLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
While China eases, it's still too early for the U.S. After testing $4,900 yesterday, the SPX retreated slightly lower. Currently, it trades near $4,870, and we keep monitoring the resistance at $4,900 and support at $4,800. We are also paying close attention to the RSI, which broke above 70 points on the daily graph; the invalidation of the breakout will raise a slight concern, and the same will apply to the spike in the VIX. Besides all these things, we will keep an eye on the Chinese markets, which saw a ban on short-selling being imposed last week and which failed to halt the crashing market. That prompted regulators to announce new stimulus measures and cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points (effective from 5th February 2024). Due to these major changes, we have changed our stance on the Chinese equity markets and are no longer bearish. However, it is still yet to see whether these measures will have a lasting effect (remember, plenty of other measures were implemented in the past few years, failing to halt the multi-year decline). Despite all this optimism and similar expectations among investors for the easing in the U.S., we remain highly cautious (and skeptical that the FED will cut rates in the next two meetings). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the SPX’s RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above 70 points. Illustration 1.02 The image above displays three major Chinese indices on the daily time frame. It can be observed that volume began to quickly increase alongside equities following the announcement of the boost to the economy. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
A Bearish 2024--Can We Move Down Yet?Early guess of the bottom is between November 2024 and March 2025 which relatively falls in line with the originally projected bottom from July 4, 2022. This is where Cycle B has topped thus far. It was in the larger target area from my December 13, 2023 analysis, albeit at the tail end of the box. Time for the study models. 1 - MOVEMENT EXTENSION STUDY The movement percentage extensions have not changed from the recent initial analyses for Cycle wave C. The range for the bottom is likely below 3365 and above 2733. 2 - SPECIFIC WAVE RELATIONSHIP STUDY The price models have a few pockets of interest which are the squares at the bottom right of the chart and included in the close-up image below. The strongest pocket across the models places the low between 3100-3200. Next strongest pocket is 3000-3050. Third is at 2750-2800. Additional pockets to consider are at 2900-2950 and 3300-3350. The lowest pocket (magenta rectangle) below 2800 is likely out of reach while the 3300-3350 model may be too high. The bottom is likely between 2900-3200. The duration models strongly favor matching durations and fractions thereof from Cycle wave A and B's duration. Based on the macro nature of the forecasted wave, I will discard these durations as explanations can be found in my prior analyses. Duration pockets of interest are strongest at 680-700 trading hours 2720-2740, and 900-920. These pockets may be too long and too short based on the additional studies, however, an interesting pocket exists at 1820-1860 and 1850-1900 trading hours. Additional considerations are at 1640-1660 and 2040-2060. 3 - DERIVATIVE MODEL STUDY While this study is suitable for waves 3, 4, 5, and C; not enough data is available based on the macro nature of the current wave and this study was not conducted. 4 - KEY RELATIONSHIP METRIC STUDY There are unique elements and descriptions for the behavior observed between Cycle waves A and B. For instance wave B came incredibly close to retracing all of wave A's movement. The current top places the retracement at 98.087% which is an A:B relationship of 1.0195. Wave B was also nearly twice the size of Wave A at a relationship of 0.5531. I studied similar instances to attempt to determine what Cycle wave C could do. Of note was a pocket of duration data around 1855 trading hours and a bottom between 2988.29-3290.59. I further refined the data by examining the rise over run (R/R) relationships between waves A and B. The current relationship is 1.8432 meaning Cycle wave A moved faster than Cycle wave B. These results yielded duration pockets between 1801-2122 trading hours and a market bottom between 3161-3181. Based on the studied subset of data, common R/R relationships between waves A and waves C were further studied. The main areas of focus were relationships at 0.388, 0.68794, 0.75, 0.80, 1.00, and 1.20. If the number is greater than 1, Cycle wave A would have a larger R/R than Cycle wave C. Cycle wave A is typically larger, however, that would mean this next market drop would be very quick. My immediate chosen ratio was 0.388, however, this appears too slow. Stocks have been more highly volatile and have not generally dropped slowly over time. Cycle wave A's R/R of 0.97 was a quicker drop than Cycle wave B's 0.53. The index should drop below 3491, but likely over a longer term than Cycle wave A. Cycle wave B was nearly double the duration of Cycle wave A even though, wave A moved more on a points basis. Cycle wave A lastly just over 9 months, while B was around 14. I expect C to last 11-16 months. This next chart outlines the movement extension percentages from the first study, the potential pockets from the second study, while overlaying R/R endpoints on top. The major intersections are addressed with vertical bars aligning to their R/R ratioed lines. I thought 0.388 was too slow and this layout indicates ratio 0.6879 is likely too slow as well. The sweet spot is likely with a ratio between 0.80 and 1.00. I will place the bottom around January 2025 for now which is around 1832 trading hours long. This analysis will become more refined as we move forward with time. 2024 appears to be quite the down year for the market between the current military conflicts, shipping disruptions, companies gambling they can refinance their debt at a cheaper rate, incredibly high personal debt levels, and a likely Chinese reclamation of Taiwan. There are also elections in the United States bound to add uncertainty to the future. Things seem to subside by the first quarter of 2025 and the next push higher will likely be stronger and faster than those previously experienced so not all is lost. Protect the retirement accounts for a year and enjoy the future.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Quad Witching: Mark Your Calendar for 2024Quad-witching is a phenomenon unique to the stock and options markets, occurring four times a year. It captures a flurry of activity sparked by the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivatives contracts: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. The third Friday of March, June, September, and December marks these critical days in the trading calendar, bringing with them distinct opportunities and challenges for investors and traders alike. Quad Witching S&P 500 Index Price Drops 2023 March -1.1% June -0.37% September -1.22% December -0.1% Average Drop 0.7% The Basics of Quad Witching Quad Witching is a critical event for anyone engaged in the stock market due to its pronounced effects on market volatility. Understanding its mechanics, significance, and impact helps investors and traders navigate the complexities of financial markets. Definition of Quadruple Witching Quadruple Witching is a term used to describe the simultaneous expiration of four types of financial derivatives: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. This event happens every quarter, specifically on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It poses distinct considerations for market participants. Significance of Quadruple Witching Dates It is important for those who are involved in the financial markets to mark the calendar for Quadruple Witching Dates. These days witness increased trading activity as investors and traders adjust or close out their derivative positions. This period of adjustment is a display of strategic decision-making as market participants act to manage their investments before contracts expire. Impact on Market Volatility During Quad Witching, there is a simultaneous expiration of derivative contracts that can lead to higher trading volume and market volatility. Traders and investors need to be aware of the potential fluctuations in prices resulting from the amplified trading activity, which can significantly impact the short-term valuation of securities.
SP:SPXEducation
by liberatedstocktrader
1
SPX500 - SHORT STRUCTURE IDEA (TARGET 4725)What's on the chart? 1) An old high that marked a strong year for 2023. 2) A rebound in a weekly FVG that earlier served as a bullish signal for prior trading sessions. 3) In the process of that rebound, a 4H bullish FVG was formed which will serve as our target area + fibs. 4) The 2023 high was broken. 5) IMPORTANT: the new high wasn't taken out. Hmmm.. suspicious. That to me is a sign of weakness from the bulls. 6) On this flop of bullish momentum, a bearish 4H FVG was formed. 7) Market structure shift with a low taken out. Do we expect a rebound? Well I don't know. I'm not here to claim that I predict the future like most twitter gurus will imply. But if it does, this is how I see the rest go down. 8) A rebound in the 4H FVG, this is crucial for a short setup because it would imply a lower high. Super important!! Price doesn't need to go that high though to find a short setup. We could just break our imaginary trendline and that's it. 9) The descent into the abyss of short profits (or liquidations lol).
FX:SPX500Short
by Lexi_Is_Trading
SPY when stars align!as i was helping someone better understand some of these terms, like golden pocket... actually ill skip it. okay the SPY, everyone's favorite!... (to play 0dtes on) jk, i do it too sometimes. This is a great example of a "high probability set up" . when you have multiple indicators pointing to the same thing. we have not 1 not 2 not 3 but 4! indicators all lining up to a single area (when stars align, ahh) and it just so happens to be the area we were aiming for before we started charting. ADD CONVICTION 1. Previous S/R level & high volume area 2. Golden Pocket 3. Unfilled Gap 4. 50 Day Moving average all lining up to the same key zone, that 402.50 area. im not saying we get there tomorrow or the next day, we could never see it again nothings for sure. but if we do this is a critical level of support. because if it holds, that's still a higher low on the daily and weekly time frame. what am i watching for this week? that 406.15 call it 406 to 407.50 area im watching to see if that holds support, or if we break through it and go down to test that 404.50 area. and if thats broken then im targeting 401.50 to 402.50/403. Upside targets - almost every dollar is resistance and major major resistance around 417-422. 412 to 413.75 if we can get above that we could see alittle higher in the short term, im leaning slightly bearish to neutral. i want to see how the rest of the bank earnings affect the market this week. okay im tired and had to type this 3 separate times as this started with me showing a friend what the golden pocket was and how to use a basic fib. happy trading this week. cheers
AMEX:SPY
by Jbridgez
8
A wave higher and then a corrective pattern or trend reversalDear FRIEND, I hope you're doing well and that the new year has started on a good note for you. I wish you success in your business endeavors and a happy new year with your loved ones. As someone interested in the Elliott Wave principle, I find it to be a valuable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. I am sharing my analysis with you. However, please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis with you so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions. In the attachment, I have included my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand (although having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily). I have been studying the Elliott Wave principle for almost three years now. With time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has increased. What I have achieved so far is a legacy of a genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott, and I am truly satisfied with my progress. May his soul rest in peace and his memory be cherished. Thank you for your support so far. I am grateful and will always remember your kindness. Please feel free to share your thoughts and feedback with me. I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best. Sincerely, (Mr. Nobody)
SKILLING:SPX500
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
2
HOW-TO Discover and Harness the Potential of the Dividend MarketDividend Market as well as Dividend futures trading shines bright, in accordance with CME Group @CME_Group Q3'23 Equity Insights Report. Dividend futures combined Q3 ADV reached 5.1K contracts, and OI averaged 284K contracts (+5% vs. Q2 2023). Over 77K contracts have traded since the launch of Annual Dividend Index futures on Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX and Russell 2000 TVC:RUT , which allow market participants increased options to manage U.S. dividend risk, especially as year end approaches. Understanding Dividends and Dividend Market 👉 A dividend is the distribution of corporate earnings to eligible shareholders. 👉 Dividend payments and amounts are determined by a company's board of directors. Dividends must be approved by the shareholders by voting rights. Although cash dividends are common, dividends can also be issued as shares of stock. 👉 The dividend yield is the dividend per share, and expressed as a percentage of a company's share price. 👉 Many companies - constituents of S&P500 Index DO NOT PAY dividends and instead retain earnings to be invested back into the company. 👉 The S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) tracks the total dividends from the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. The index provides investors the opportunity to hedge or take a view on dividends for U.S. stocks, independent of price movement. The index resets to zero on an annual basis. 👉 Using the S&P500 Dividend Point Index (Annual) as the underlying in financial products, investors can hedge or gain exposure to the dividend performance of the S&P500 Index. Representation of S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) over the past 5 years. Dividends points are to be collected through the calendar year, and reset to Zero on an annual basis Understanding S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures 👉 The S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures CME:SDA1! calculates the accumulation of all ordinary gross dividends paid on the S&P500 index constituent stocks that have gone ex-dividend over a 12-month period. The amounts are expressed as dividend index points. 👉 The underlying index for S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures is the S&P500 Dividend Index. The methodology for the index can be found here at S&P Global website. 👉 Dividend index points specifically refer to the level of index points that are directly attributable to the dividends of index constituents. They typically only capture regular dividends and calculate this on the ex-date of the respective constituents within each index. 👉 In general, “special” or “extraordinary” dividends are not included as dividend points in the respective annual dividend indices. 👉 Futures contract Unit is $ 250 x S&P 500 Annual Dividends Index. The Universe of S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures with expirations dates over the next several years Understanding the Difference between 'Today' and 'Tomorrow' using S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures, or what is CME:SDA1! and CME:SDA2! Futures contracts 👉 CME:SDA1! is a Front S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures contracts, that calculates expected dividend index points for current (in this time - 2023) calendar year. 👉 CME:SDA2! is a Next one S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures contracts, that calculates expected dividend index points for the next one (in this time - 2024) calendar year. 👉 The difference (futures spread) between front and next one can give an expression to traders and investors. 👉 Macro conditions are good, and U.S. economy is doing well, so futures spread values are below Zero (expected dividend points for next year are bigger rather current). 👉 Macro conditions are bad and U.S. economy is getting worst, so futures spread values are above Zero (expected dividend points for next year are lower rather current). 🤝 Happy Dividend Market Trading to Everyone! Enjoy!
CME:SDA1!Education
by PandorraResearch
S&P500 Next Support LevelClosely monitor the zone indicated in above chart. Disclaimer: The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
SP:SPX
by rukshan2102
Are Foreign Stocks Forging a Relative Comeback? Perhaps the most important macro driver for stock prices in the last year and a half has been the US Dollar Index. The DXY has ranged between the upper 90s and about 107 since the third quarter of 2022. When the greenback has been on the rise, equities have generally been weak. A softer dollar has led to a period of stock market strength. Of course, ebbs in the forex market are always crucial for foreign stocks. That brings me to today's idea. The Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) has sharply underperformed the Total US Stock Market ETF (VTI) since 2007. In that time, the dollar has moved from the low 70s to well above 100. I like to compare the relative price chart of VTI to VEU for a gauge of relative strength between the US and non-US markets. Right now, it might appear that discarding VEU in favor of an all-US portfolio would make the most sense. But I am monitoring a potential false breakout on the chart of VTI/VEU. If we see a continued drop off in relative US strength, then a move toward support, illustrated on the chart could be in play over the coming months. So, don’t forget about the 37% chunk of the investable equity universe that is foreign stocks. Fundamentally, VEU trades about 13 times forward earnings estimates compared with about 19 times on the US cap-weighted index. The ex-US market also features more sector diversification and a higher dividend yield. Of course, this key technical move right now bears close watch for macro investors as 2024 gets underway.
AMEX:VTIShort
by mikezaccardi
1
History To Repeat Itself? S&P500Is it possible for the stock market to repeat itself? After the stronger-than-expected NFP last week investors are repricing the aggressive FED rate cuts expected for 2024. This was immediately affected in the stock market as the main indexes dropped and the dollar managed to recover some ground. The month of January is generally weak for the index as the 10-year average return for this month is only 0.17% making it one of the weakest periods for the index. A noticeable resistance zone can be spotted and used in advantage to look for shorts and get more than a 1:3 Risk-Reward-Ratio.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Elite_Forex
The Start of the US Recession is NearCurrent economic, fundamental, and now technical data suggest that we are potentially nearing the start of the US Recession. Here are the technical factors that suggests the recession may have already begun⤵️ On the 1W chart, Price has rejected the $4.8k key resistance level on the 1D chart, the price is overbought and the RSI is indicating a bearish divergence And lastly, our momentum indicators have all turned bearish today, indicating that the downtrend has officially started, from a technical POV.
SP:SPXShort
by AlgoAlpha
1
SPX S&P 500 Fell 10% After the Last U.S. Credit Downgrade !!!Fitch Ratings made a significant move by downgrading the US debt rating on Tuesday, shifting it from the highest AAA rating to AA+. The downgrade was attributed to a "steady deterioration in standards of governance." This decision followed intense negotiations among lawmakers to reach a debt ceiling deal, which posed a risk of the nation's first default. The S&P 500 experienced a notable decline of 10% within three months after the previous U.S. credit downgrade. The downgrade occurred on August 5, 2011, by Standard & Poor's, one of the major credit rating firms, following another intense debt ceiling battle. The day after the S&P downgrade, the S&P 500 suffered a nearly 7% drop, dubbed "Black Monday." Subsequently, the benchmark index declined by 5.7% that month and an additional 7.2% in September. Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, emphasized that the 12-year-old news of S&P being the first to downgrade was significant, allowing investors to adjust their perceptions of the world's most important bond market, which was no longer considered pure AAA. Nonetheless, Fitch's recent decision to downgrade remains impactful. In the current scenario, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, the highest since November 2022. As for my price target for this year, it remains at $4900, as illustrated in the chart provided below: Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SP:SPXShort
by TopgOptions