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Sp500index

Updated Top Based On 4103 BottomIf Primary wave 1 finally ended, this the preliminary path for the remainder of 2023. The ABC waves are based on common movement and duration if Primary wave 2 is 278 hours long and moves up 307 points which are the preliminary targets. Once Intermediate wave A ends, updates for B and C (same endpoint as Primary wave 2) should be available. These targets are almost too perfect to be the specific reversal points, but the reversals should exist in the highlighted zones. The percentage levels on the far right have not changed from the last analyst however, the end point in the final week of December is an adjustment based on the two extra days added to the end of Primary wave 1's analysis from Wednesday. Some good volatile trading ahead.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
9
📈 BTC vs. S&P500: Broken Correlation & The Next Big Move!🔥🔀💰Wishes for a nice month everyone and let's all pray for logic and Peace in the World.🌍 🎓 November has started with a bang, and we're seeing some interesting movements in the financial market. 📊 🔍 Observations: Bitcoin's Rollercoaster: BTC took a slight dip today, even after a splendid performance post the Federal Reserve announcement. 💸 Inverse Correlation Emerges: Historically, Bitcoin & S&P 500 moved hand in hand. But now? They're moving in opposite directions at times! 🔄 Past Patterns: Dive into 2018, 2019, and 2020, and you'll see this dance between BTC and S&P 500. Correlation breaks, then normalizes, and ultimately... BOOM! 🚀 A significant price movement ensues. 🤔 Thoughts: ChatGPT Insights: Looked up ChatGPT for more on this correlation break. Factors like market sentiment, liquidity, and micro events could be playing a role. Current Market Trend: Bitcoin's moving up while indices correct. What's next? We might see this correlation normalize soon. 🔄 The BIG Resistance: Keep an eye on Bitcoin as it approaches the major resistance level I've been talking about. This could be a pivotal point! 🔝 🔥 Hot Takes: Bitcoin: Feeling bullish! Major support lies around 34,000, and I'm optimistic about BTC reaching the 37,000 mark and beyond. 🚀 S&P 500: Spotted a significant resistance at 4,327. Bearish trends have been dominant since last year, but a break above this resistance could change the narrative. 🐻 vs 🐂 In conclusion, watch out for the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. When it breaks and normalizes, it might just present a golden opportunity! 🌟 Keep observing, analyzing and take grown up decisions; stay vigilant, and remember to do risk management and have patience 💰 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 link:
SP:SPX
by FX_Professor
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂ S&P Index 🔼4185 / 4220 / 4240 Hey there! In the 4-hour time frame, the S&P index, as observed, has shown positive reactions after a decline, starting from the range of 4100, and is currently trading around 4157. The expectation we can have in the 4-hour time frame is that, following this consolidation, we may witness growth towards the ranges of 4180 / 4220 / 4240. To better understand the continuation of this price movement, it's crucial to see how it reacts to the resistance ranges. There's a possibility of a rejection from these levels. Additionally, if it manages to penetrate above the supply zone and establish itself, the target range of 4300 can be considered. Maintaining the support range of 4100 is very important for the desired scenario 🔵Remember, always conduct your own analysis and consider other factors before making any trading decisions. Good luck!"✌️ ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help! if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌
CAPITALCOM:US500
by SasanSeifi
Why Burry Bet Against the US MarketBurry has frequently expressed his views on Twitter (X), asserting that the market has not made a genuine recovery and is headed for a recession. He believes it's just a matter of time before we witness the ultimate impact. Many individuals consider Burry to be an extreme pessimist, contending that he consistently focuses on the negative aspects. However, in the lead-up to the 2008 market crash, people also criticized him for being overly pessimistic and opposed his ideas. The purpose of this post is to delve into his perspectives and examine some recent information I've been investigating in order to determine whether the market situation is indeed in line with his claims Who is Michael Burry? Michael Burry is a renowned American investor and former hedge fund manager. He gained widespread recognition for accurately predicting the 2008 financial crisis and profiting from it through his hedge fund, Scion Capital. Burry is also known for his contrarian investment style and is a proponent of value investing. His story is prominently featured in Michael Lewis's book, "The Big Short.” Today, we will examine data that reveals the current state of the American market. Through this data, we will learn to understand the reasons behind why the market may be weaker than it appears, despite all the hype and the notion that the American market has "recovered.” What’s Burry Concerns Economic Concerns: Despite positive stock market performance and GDP projections, Burry, along with other notable investors like Warren Buffett, sees potential issues in the global economy. Federal Reserve Actions: Burry and others believe this situation is unsustainable and may lead to economic stagnation next year, characterized by weak growth, rising inflation, and labor shortages. 1. Michael Burry said is Velocity is nominal GDP/Money Supply (M2 here). QT + higher rates starting to use M2 down. Yet we are seeing a tick up in velocity, emerging from narrative obscurity, In 1978-79, rising velocity trumped failing money supply to drive inflation higher and higher redux would shock Full Explanation: "Velocity" is like the speed at which money moves in the economy. Imagine money as a car. The car's speed (velocity) is how fast it's moving. "Nominal GDP" is the total value of goods and services produced in the economy. "M2" is a measure of the money supply, including things like cash, checking accounts, and savings accounts. Now, let's break it down: If the economy's car (money) is moving faster (velocity), it can boost economic growth (Nominal GDP). "QT" means Quantitative Tightening, which is when the central bank reduces the amount of money in the economy. "Higher rates" means they raise interest rates. When you reduce the amount of money (QT) and raise interest rates, the car (money) slows down (Velocity decreases). When you reduce the amount of money (QT) and raise interest rates, the car (money) slows down (Velocity decreases). Recently, we've seen the car (Velocity) speeding up, even though the central bank has been reducing money (QT) and increasing interest rates. In the late 1970s (1978-79), a similar thing happened. The car's speed (Velocity) became more important than the amount of money (Money Supply) in driving up prices (inflation). "Redux" means a repeat of something. So, the statement suggests that if we see a repeat of the 1978-79 situation, it would be surprising and could lead to higher inflation. In simple terms, it's like saying that even though the central bank is trying to slow down the economy by reducing money and raising interest rates, we're still seeing fast economic growth. This reminds us of a situation in the late 1970s when fast economic growth led to higher prices. If this happens again, it would be surprising and could cause inflation. 2.The second thing Burry believes is that there is a bubble in the housing market, similar to the one in 2008. Instructions chat above green (rising market) yellow (small drop market) Red (absolute bear market) He believes that housing prices are over inflated and that many homeowners are still carrying significant levels of debt he is warned that a housing market downturn could trigger a wave of default that would Ripple through the banking system and The Wider economy finally bury has expressed concern about the vulnerability of the banking system which he believes is over leveraged and under-capitalized he has warned that a wave of bank failures could trigger a major crisis similar to the 2008 financial crisis overall buries prediction that another major financial crisis is on the horizon. Explanation for chart above As you can see from the chart , we are not yet showing strong signs of a collapse like in 2008. However, there is a chain of signs that it is beginning to slow down and approach a potential downturn. When a higher time frame displays characteristics in yellow between red, there is a chance of an impending collapse. For now, we must treat this information as neutral and avoid letting our biases guide us. 3.The Third thing is Burry concern about the current state of the stock market. Instructions chat above green (rising market) yellow (small drop market) Red (absolute bear market) Bury has expressed concern about the current state of the stock market, the housing market, and the banking system, all of which he believes are overvalued and vulnerable to a major downturn. Burry has also expressed concern about the high levels of debt in the U.S. economy, which he believes are unsustainable and could trigger a major crisis. He has pointed to the rising levels of corporate and government debt, as well as the growing number of (companies that can only service their debt but not pay it down), as evidence of this. Burry has also expressed concern about the current state of the stock market, which he believes is again overvalued and driven by speculation rather than fundamentals. Explanation for chart above As you can see in the chart, the market has not yet fully recovered despite the recent increases in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. It's evident that the rally is weak compared to previous years. This analysis indicates a temporary market weakening, with no strong signs of a full recovery at the moment Let's now take a deeper dive into less visible yet crucial information. We'll focus on areas that require understanding their unusual aspects and the reasons behind them. What do I mean? To uncover something unusual, patience and extensive economic research are required. Through this process, we can discover intriguing insights that provide valuable context to the economic situation in the USA. For example, let's examine: a. M2 - MONEY SUPPLY In the graph, you'll notice something that hasn't occurred since 1963. With the help of a tool, we can observe periods of increase (green) and slight decrease (yellow), but no instances of absolute decrease (red). What does this signify? What's the context behind it? After conducting research, I found an explanation. I'm referring to: Financial Stress and Banking Issues: A sharp decline in M2 may indicate underlying financial stress or problems within the banking and financial sector. This is a significant reason as it highlights potential vulnerabilities in the financial system, which could have broader implications for the economy. It might prompt regulators and policymakers to address these issues to prevent a more severe crisis. Do you still find this unremarkable? Remember, this is just one perspective on the situation. b. Unemployment Rate It is crucial to examine the Unemployment Rate, and I've specifically focused on the Unemployment Rate in California. This is because, in the end, the fundamental Unemployment Rate tends to converge to a similar outcome. Currently, in the graph, we observe the color white, which indicates the start of an uptick in unemployment, representing slow growth. White denotes a slow growth momentum or a potentially deceptive rally. Therefore, it's important to note that we have not yet reached the green phase, which signifies a definite increase in the Unemployment Rate. Historically, every time the Unemployment Rate has turned green, it has been followed by an economic downturn. it is essential to remain vigilant. If the Unemployment Rate continues to rise steadily, it may lead to economic stress. On the other hand, if M2 money supply is shrinking or experiencing volatility while the Unemployment Rate is increasing, it points to economic stress and potential issues. A declining money supply reflects reduced liquidity, making it harder for businesses to access capital for growth and causing financial stress. Simultaneously, a rising Unemployment Rate indicates that more people are struggling to secure jobs, further straining the economy. This situation can result in reduced consumer spending, decreased investment, and heightened economic uncertainty, potentially contributing to a market downturn or recession. c. Gold Investors Currently, there's something intriguing happening among certain investors worldwide. Over the past few months, some investors have been stockpiling gold. Since March 2023, gold has displayed a (green) signal, indicating a bullish trend. This suggests that people have been accumulating gold from March until now, similar to the trend seen in 2003. It's possible that some investors perceive the market as risky and view gold as a safety net. However, it's important to note that there can be instances of deception, as seen in 2016 and 2017 when gold turned green but didn't perform significantly and even dropped by 10 percent on three occasions. Such situations occur periodically and not consistently. For instance, investors also purchased gold from 2019 until the end of 2021 (despite the significant impact of COVID-19 starting in 2020), indicating that some investors can spot signs ahead of time. There are more examples from the past. Hence, it's fascinating to closely monitor recent developments in the gold market to see if it can break records or experiences setbacks like in 2016-2017. There are many more examples, but I will stop here. The purpose of this post is to emphasize that thinking outside the box is often more fruitful. Instead of sticking to a linear approach, gather as much information as possible, seek connections between two factors, then three, and continue to cross-reference vast datasets. By effectively cross-referencing, we enhance our ability to assess probabilities and reduce uncertainty. This reflects my personal viewpoint. I observe that the market has reached a plateau in the SP500, NASDAQ, and most markets. There is a possibility that this is a temporary phase, or it may indicate an impending decline. My focus is on monitoring real-time data and responding accordingly, rather than attempting to predict the future. Whenever I perceive the market as (red), I take action. Likewise, when I see it as (green), I take action. Ultimately, my goal is to remain adaptable and respond to prevailing market conditions. In the future, I will continue to provide updates in the event of shifts in market conditions, inflation, new data, and additional information. This will contribute to assembling a comprehensive puzzle that offers clarity on the overall situation.
SP:SPX
by BlackMammoth
1
Boeing Company: The Underpressured PathBoeing results topped analyst expectations Wednesday thanks to a pickup in commercial aircraft deliveries as the manufacturer increases production, but losses in its defense and space businesses drove the manufacturer into the red for the quarter. The company generated $2.6 billion of free cash flow in the second quarter, ahead of analyst forecasts, and reiterated its full-year guidance of between $3 billion and $5 billion of free cash flow. Boeing shares surged 12.70% just in a week, and closed on Friday at $238.69, the stock’s highest closing price since November 2021. Here’s how the company performed during the period ended June 30, compared with Refinitiv consensus estimates: 👉 Adjusted loss per share: 82 cents vs. 88 cents. 👉 Revenue: $19.75 billion vs. $18.45 billion 👉 Boeing and main rival Airbus have both struggled to increase aircraft production in the wake of the Covid pandemic as some airlines face longer waits for new jets, just as travel demand rebounds. The company delivered 136 planes in the second quarter, up from 121 aircraft during the same period last year. Meanwhile just a take a look what historically happened with Boeing stocks, almost every time after 10+ percent weekly advance. In simple words - that's been a flat, or even more than 10 percent decline. Technical picture indicates that Bearish trend still is in power in NYSE:BA stocks, and 5yrs SMA is still a huge resistance.
NYSE:BA
by Pandorra
8
Two Large Rallies Before the Bottom Falls Out in 2024If Primary 1 finished today, it hit the forecasted mark from here: And here: The original call for the end of Primary wave 1 ending in October was here (August 2 idea #1): However, I knew the bottom of Primary 1 would be a little later than the initial forecast once Intermediate wave 1 was late in hitting the mark. The initial forecast for the end of Primary wave 1 was based on the theory the complete bear market would end between August 2024 and April 2025. Based on 6 likely end locations (from relational data based on Cycle wave A and B behaviors), I back calculated what each Primary wave would have to do to achieve this movement which were the pink boxes in this idea (August 2 idea #2): Basically waves 1-5 fulfill a particular amount of the overall wave’s length and movement and I took first and second sigma values to determine the range. From those pink boxes I estimated Primary wave 1’s likely end location if the final market bottom occurred in September 2024. Primary wave 1 should end around October 5, 2023 to hit this final market bottom. From this date, I back calculated what Intermediate wave 1 should do to hit this target as outlined in the first August 2 chart above. Once Intermediate wave 1 finished a week after the first estimate, I figured Primary wave 1 must be at least a week and a day later than planned. Once Primary wave 1 ended, I can then go back to the idea with the pink boxes to make the first assumptions about the final market endpoint in late 2024 or Q1 2025. Based on the end of Primary 1 occurring after the right side (outside) of the first two boxes, the end should occur after September 2024. Based on the movement occurring above the top of the sixth box, the market top should occur above 2733. The furthest end point in April 2025 is less likely with the drop not occurring below 2733 and it is also ruled out. The current forecast for the market bottom is between September 23, 2024 and March 30, 2025 likely in the range of 2878.89-3183.44. I am leaning more toward the date of the 2024 election, possibly the day results are finalized. These values will change and likely narrow as each subsequent wave is completed over the next 12 months until the final target is fairly precise like the current bottom called out today. With these updated forecasts in mind, it is time to make the first projections for Primary wave 2’s end location. Pre-estimate was early- to mid-December last week. The current projection is between December 12, 2023 and January 2, 2024. Most models keep the end point before the end of year holiday weeks but more data should clean up the date. The models are much stronger with large agreement in a tight window between 4460-4480. The secondary window and more conservative target is a top between 4420-4450. These are determined based on the below methodology. The derivative model does not provide values for waves 1-2 and A-B. The Intermediate wave A and B endpoints are nominally placed and not currently based on calculations (do not expect them to be official/accurate). The overall path to the bottom looks like: METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
The 1.2 and 1.2 pattern and the bull market continues! Think Greetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week. I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further. I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you. I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market. However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time. If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes. It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is. No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get. We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities. Let's mention a few opinions and ideas! Based on mathematics. I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future. Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success. Best regards, Mr. Nobody Keep trying and never give up. Good luck!
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by mehdi47abbasi79
Nasdaq Bank Index: Putting A Bad Hair Day Into PerspectiveElon Musk still sees danger ahead for the US economy if the Fed does not contain the regional banking crisis. Financial blog Zero Hedge previously tweeted about the critical role of small and medium-sized banks in the US financial system — a hot topic following the sharp collapse this month of Silicon Valley Bank, a technology startup lender and the first bank to be taken over by regulators since the 2008 financial crisis. Small and medium banks account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending and 60% of residential real estate lending, among other loans, notes Zero Hedge with accompanying charts. “If the Fed does not contain the collapse of regional banks, there will be another Great Depression,” it wrote, referring to the economic crisis that lasted from 1929 to 1939. "This is a serious risk," Musk replied to Zero Hedge. According to the US Department of Labor, in 1933, at the height of the Great Depression, approximately 25% of the 12.8 million people in the US labor force were unemployed. This wasn't the first time Musk had intervened on his social media about the collapse of the SVB. Last week, he compared the bank failure to the Wall Street crash of the 1920s that preceded the Great Depression. "There are a lot of similarities this year with 1929," Tesla CEO said in response to a post from Ark Invest' Cathy Wood. Nasdaq Bank Index BSE:BANK includes securities of companies listed on the NASDAQ that are classified under the industry classification benchmark as banks. These include banks that provide a wide range of financial services, including retail banking, loans and money transfers. On February 5, 1971, the underlying NASDAQ Bank Index was 100 points.
NASDAQ:BANK
by Pandorra
5
S&P500 - Long; For now ...This naturally rimes with the Nasdaq signals and with the overall global equities outlook. Here, two opposing forces are the most significant factor; 1) The unfolding (and enduring!) USD strength - Downward pressure ; 2) The massive, continuously inbound (to US) capital flows , primarily from Europe - Upward pressure . Driven by the rapidly unraveling globalization (driven by a Europe which the US decided to turn into a bonfire that is now clearly visible from Alpha-Centauri, and a China which is dying of old age as the demographic apocalypse is hitting hard this year - 2023), these fundamental forces will likely make this year one for the records - especially when it comes index (equities) trading. Many, many trading opportunities to be expected, throughout this year, probably far more than in other periods. Laissez le bon temp roule!! ...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
8
US 100 INDEX. THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW - LET'S GO DIVINGThere are looming risks that could "break" the US economy and end its current growth cycle. Third-quarter GDP estimates are tracking above 5% and the US economy has added more than 2 million jobs year-to-date. But there are three looming risks that could "break" the stock market and economy and end its current growth cycle, according to a Tuesday note from Ned Davis Research. These are the three risks to consider. 1. A resurgence in inflation Inflation has made progress in trending towards the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target after CPI peaked at about 9% last June, but any resurgence in rising prices would threaten the trajectory of the Fed's current tightening cycle. 2. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.00% The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged so far this year, hitting a 16-year high of 5.02% on Monday. A further increase in this key benchmark rate would spell trouble for the broader economy, specifically if the yield breaks above the 5.25% level. The 5.00 - 5.50% yield range TVC:TNX was an important double-top in 2006/2007, and also represented the peak policy rate of that tightening cycle. So perhaps we wouldn't take a break of that level lightly. Higher interest rates increase borrowing rates for consumers and businesses and often curtail demand, leading to slower economic growth, if not a contraction in growth. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.86% on Tuesday. 3. Credit conditions deteriorating So far this year, the bond market has been more concerned about interest rate risks than credit risks. Technical graph below for US 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX says that main 125-Day SMA support has been broken as well as major upside trend, and technical figure known as "Head and Shoulders" is in progress right now.
TVC:NDQ
by Pandorra
Tesla Just Had Its Worst 4Mo Red Combo. Nightmare, or a Chance?!Tesla's stock just had its worst week of 2023, plunging 16% on Elon Musk's earnings-call nightmare. Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA shares plunged 16% over the five-day stretch ending October 20, as disappointing third-quarter earnings and a disastrous call led by CEO Elon Musk sparked a sell-off. The nightmarish week wiped nearly $130 million off the EV maker's total market capitalization. while Musk's own personal fortune declined by around $30 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index . The stock is still up appr. 80% year-to-date, but has given up some of its gains over the past few months with the early-2023 hype around AI fading and investors starting to fret about the impact of higher interest rates. Last Wednesday, on Oct 18, 2023 Tesla reported quarterly earnings that fell well short of Wall Street's expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.66, missing the consensus estimate of $0.74, and also underperformed analysts' revenue forecasts. Musk then said in a post-earnings call that Tesla had likely "dug own grave with the Cybertruck" due to enormous production challenges, and warned of several economic headwinds that could drag on demand. Tesla just had its worst 4-months Red Combo since June 2023, while Tesla stocks price fading after that within four months in a row, from July till October (in this time). Sure we can call this performance like a "mini-disaster", but still it's too early to say that world's richest man became a "little baby" who is "fully in tears". Meanwhile strong and powerful technical analysis says that the carmaker's hellish string isn't a bad one, while buyout things right here to come. Tesla stocks were doing well in June 2023, where bearish hugs and weekly SMA (52) were broken, so I have to say, there is almost no hellish right here, just a technical confirmation of reversal that has happened several months ago in 2023. Tech graph below is a long-term view, with further updates on monthly/ quarterly basis.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Pandorra