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First Projection of Next Stock Market DropOperating under the premise Primary wave 2 was finally finished or will soon, this is the preliminary peak at Primary 3 down. Here is the hourly: I am displaying the daily with the play button so it will be viewable forever on TradingView as the hourly will eventually stop loading (years from now). Things to note, Primary wave 2 was the third largest retracement of a Primary wave 2 inside a Cycle wave C in history according to my mapping of the S&P 500. I did not think it would reach this level, however, multiple models had secondary agreement of the top between 4515-4519 which was quite close. Will teach me not to ignore secondaries again. The initial models are looking at Primary wave C lasting 505-690 trading hours. For this initial projection I plotted the end around 600 hours. The final bottom was projected around 3450, but the median model placed future Intermediate wave 5 below 4400. This current wave structure is based on the initial premise of a 600 hour duration and drop of 1071 points. Again the structure is perfect world symmetrical and not likely totally accurate. I am using this as a guide and will update as we move. Bottom line, something major has to happen especially in the Intermediate wave 3. Initial call is down to 4100 for wave 1, up toward 4325 for wave 2, down to 3700 for wave 3, up to 3900 for wave 4 and final Primary wave 3 bottom around 3385. Will provide deeper analysis over the coming days. What is the cause of this massive projected slide? China-Taiwan? Semi-conductor manufacturing issues? Debt Bubble? Baby Boomer House Downsizing (cannot happen that fast)? More credit rating declines? Russia? US political party uncertainties? New wars? Other Black Swan?
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5
Testing Theory One Moves Market…Last night I posited 3 theories: 1) We are still in Intermediate wave A up 2) Intermediate wave C (and Primary wave 2 up) will end this week 3) The market topped last Friday at the close I went into theories 2 and 3 last night but wanted to dedicate more time to theory 1 which will occur here. I first placed the Minor waves (yellow) where they likely ended. I believe everything through Minor wave 4 is accurate. The last step is to project what Minor wave 5 would do based on the data from all prior waves. The models provided me the levels to the far right (coloring coding is spelled out in METHODOLOGY below). I next reviewed possible model agreement for time and price. The lengths appeared to remain less than 16 hours in length. Most models were between 7-12 hours. Prices agreed the most at 4415-4419 with secondary agreement at 4430-4434. Prior to today the high was 4418 and today reached a new high at 4421.76. My target window based on this data remained between 4415-4435. I next applied my beta testing derivative model to the data. It provided the white, yellow, and green boxes. The white box contained all historical end points which means the market top will likely occur in this window. It spanned 3-11 hours between 4393-4454. The median data from the derivative model provided the smallest green box which topped at 4423 (just above the current high). Taking all of these separate models I determined the market top will likely be around 4430 and last 10 hours. I applied this to another program which takes historical data and determines how much each micro wave comprises of the larger macro wave’s final length and movement. I took those median values which the white path pivoted at. Minute wave 1 was expected to last 1 hour and top at 4371.54, wave 2 was 1 hour with a low at 4352.95, wave 3 was 3 hours long with a top at 4410.65, wave 4 lasted a single hour bottoming at 4386.35, and the final 3 hours were for wave 5 to top at 4426.67. I then plotted the green Minute wave numbers based on the actual market swings thus far. It appeared waves 1 and 2 were pretty spot on. Minute wave 3 likely lasted 2 more hours with a higher top at Friday’s high of 4418. Considering all of these models it is quite possible the current market top is in. The next leg of the adventures should be down. I will complete another analysis tomorrow projecting where Intermediate wave B could end. There is still a chance theory 2 from yesterday has occurred or will occur, but the ultimate direction for the next 1-2 weeks should be down. METHODOLOGY As a data scientist, I operate a modified wave theory loosely composed of rules and principles from Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. I develop theories based on suspected wave locations in time and lay out hypotheses to test. Once the movement occurs, I determine which path played out and repeat the process for the next movement. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
SPX And The CPI WeekThe S&P500 index SPX surged by +1.31% last week to close above 4400 resistance level. The index is showing that there's more potential is yet to come, to hit 4520 next. The week ahead: The meeting between US President Biden and China President Xi is the highlight; there is also US CPI and retail sales, the former being a key input into the Fed's policy deliberations; China activity data will also be released. Sectors that may witness higher volatility are; Big techs, EVs, Oil & Gas and Semiconductors stocks.
SP:SPXLong
by AlyaAkram
Drop soon, but how long?The movement of the past week has raised many questions as to where the market is which we will attempt to answer in this analysis. The long duration Intermediate wave A, followed up with a quick and tiny drop for Intermediate wave B presented characteristics I have compared to similar historical events. The best way to categorize this pattern is by comparing Wave A to Wave B’s duration (or hourly bars), movement, and rise over run or movement divided by duration. I took those values in the current case and compared them to historics to attempt to determine where Intermediate wave C could end. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A IS AT LEAST 3x LONGER THAN WAVE B? Currently, wave A’s duration of 50 trading hours was 3.8462 times longer than wave B’s 13. I studied similar instance where the ratio between A and B’s bars were between 3 and 5 to determine what could happen next. Based on the results I took the prior ratios of A/C and applied it to wave A’s actual 50 bar length to determine what C could do. The results are a mix between 7 and 38 trading hours for wave C. Of note, these are all less than wave A’s length. If the max hold true, wave C and the market top could occur no later than this Friday, November 17 at 1230 eastern time. While 7 trading hours is the lowest value, it could be an outlier so moving to the next lowest at 21 trading hours could place the low on or after the final hour of trading on Tuesday, November 14. Using the same process, the potential tops based on the A/C ratio that are possible are 4489.87 and 4501.87. I do not like any others greater than 4503. I next move over to the same concept but based on the expressed BC ratio for historical waves where A to B’s bars were between 3 and 5. The potential lengths max out at 38 hours again with a tight grouping around 28-30 hours. 29 hours is the first hour of trading on November 16. Of the potential tops, 2 of them are in still in play but likely to be hit within the first 1-2 trading days of this week at 4422.27 and 4441.24. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A’S MOVEMENT IS 6x LARGER THAN WAVE B’S MOVEMENT? Wave A’s movement of a 287.42 point gain divided by wave B’s paltry 47.26 point loss resulted in wave A being 6.0817 times larger than wave B. I studied historical occasions where wave A was 6 times larger than wave B to attempt to determine what could happen next. The potential lengths in this case appear to hold a 1:1 relationship which is why so many results indicate wave C can be 50 bars long. Some of these results are for micro waves wherein wave A may have only been 1 to 2 bars and the following wave C was also 1 to 2 bars. I will not consider the 50 bars as the current market is quite close to the top and 50 bars would take too long to get there. The potential lengths of interest appear to be in the 10 to 13, maybe 17 trading hour zone. Hour 10 will occur tomorrow within the first 3 hours of trading and hour 13 is later in the day. Hour 17 ends before 1230 eastern time on November 14. Nearly all of the project ed tops have occurred with the exception of 4478.88. While considering wave C from the B/C ratio and applying wave B’s length of 13 hours, all results point to 13 hours. This is not helpful, even though 13 is a length already derived and taken into consideration. Once again, most of the moves have already occurred except for four notables at 4433.11, 4446.68, 4462.09, and 4496.39. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A’S RISE OVER RUN IS 1.5x LARGER THAN WAVE B’S RR? Wave A gained 287.42 points over 50 trading hours creating a rise over run of 5.7484. Wave B lost 47.26 points over 13 trading hours for a rise over run of 3.6354. Taking wave A’s value and dividing by wave B indicates Wave A was 1.5812 times larger. This is not an unusual value as B waves are corrective and most of the time shorter and retrace less than wave A moved. I researched similar instances where the A to B ratio was between 1.5 and 1.7 to determine possible wave C reactions. This generated a much larger list of results with 60 matches. Potential wave C lengths are 7, 8, 10, and 13. Potential market tops of 4459.37 and 4478.88 are possible. The values based on historic B/C rise over run relationships max out at a length of 13 bars again. The only potential tops to occur are 4451.35 and 4496.39. Another application of historical studies place lines correlating to percentages on charts for potential movement retracement and movement extensions. There is too much data to list all possible datapoints but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Potential reversal levels based on historic Intermediate wave Cs in Primary wave 2s have strongest agreement of reversal between 4415-4419, and secondary is 4430-4434. Similarly, based on data for waves ending in 2C2C, strongest agreement is at 4515-4519 with shared secondaries 4415-4419 and 4485-4489. Lastly, the broad data for waves ending in 2C indicates the market top could also be at 4415-4419, with secondaries at 4420-4425. Bottom Line Analysis: There are three major things to consider. The first is that all movement so far is only Intermediate wave A. While this is possible, Intermediate wave B will likely begin soon with a drop. The second theory is Intermediate wave C will end this week. We will likely see upward movement likely no higher than 4500 this week with my primary target below 4471 before Wednesday. I like the values between 4459-4462. Playing this second theory out, median historical models have Minor wave 1 inside of Intermediate wave C at 1 hour top at 4390.29, wave 2 down in 2 hours at 4349.60, wave 3 at 3 hours long high at 4423.27, wave 4 down to 4382.76 in an hour and final wave 5 to 4456.04 in 2 hours. Actual wave reversal points are: Some of our historical levels to consider pointed to a top around 4415-4416 to include. Some of our possible durations were at 7 trading hours as well which would have concluded with Friday’s close where the market peaked at 4418.03. Many models are hinting at the market top being in. After Friday’s market close, Moody’s downgraded the US Credit Rating. This could see declines on Monday. While I think theory two is possible, theory three cannot be discounted. We will see how trading begins on Monday and Theories 1 and 3 both should begin with declines on Monday, and it could take a week to actually know which one is unfolding. Once Primary wave 2 is over, I am initially projecting a near thousand-point loss in the S&P 500 index by May 2024. The cause is unknown, I have been looking at China invading Taiwan for over a year. I figure this could cripple the semiconductor industry which controls much of the things we use throughout the world whether a conflict destroys the manufacturing ability or hands monopolistic control to the Chinese, the outcome will likely be devasting in the short-term. Nearly everything in the world relies on a chip or component moving through Taiwan, as the world’s eggs are basically in one basket. METHODOLOGY As a data scientist, I operate a modified wave theory loosely composed of rules and principles from Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. I develop theories based on suspected wave locations in time and lay out hypotheses to test. Once the movement occurs, I determine which path played out and repeat the process for the next movement.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Weekly Update: Fire is MesmerizingAs we continue to subdivide within this larger cycle wave a down targeting the low 3,000 area, we appear to find ourselves in a countertrend b-wave retracement. This area has the potential to carve out potential complex patterns as b-waves and wave 4's are the areas where traders are frustrated from a sentiment standpoint. I do not think we should be prepared for an easy consolidation and additionally, I believe we could be for a while. Within this area price should behave within a range. It would not be uncommon to experience irregular corrective patterns that slightly exceed previous highs or lows. As a Pattern Analyst I have no mechanism to forecast these sub-divisions. My main reason I believe we stay contained within a range is based entirely on 2 aspects of data. (1) we have retraced much higher than in standard form, and (2) The IWM just completed it's b-wave triangle, and if recent history is any guide when comparing small caps to large caps is there appears to be 1-3 month lag in the broader markets. See my small cap analysis here . Nonetheless, what comes next is a c-wave. If you have followed me for a while, you'll know a c-wave down feels like a crash. I'm not saying the stock markets are about to crash...I'm simply saying that soon if you find yourself saying out loud, "This feels like the stock market is crashing" ...that's how you know you're in a c-wave. Are the bulls playing with fire here? My mom always told me that fire is mesmerizing, but don't you dare touch it. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
3
Is This Rally About To Crumble?Minor wave 4, if it ended was a dud. But the models indicate Minor wave 5 and the Intermediate A top will come quick. The historical models indicate the market can now top as early as the second hour of trading tomorrow. Minor wave 3 is likely already through wave 3 as seen here: Based on a hypothetical top of 4384 the path in the image above outlines the rough movement. So far, the waves are underperforming this model which could indicate a market top below 4383. The overall analysis above is an early projection on Intermediate wave B's movement assuming Minor wave 5 tops at 4381 and within the second hour of trading on Tuesday. If either of these do not prove true, I will update this analysis tomorrow night. A slightly higher or longer duration to the top will likely raise the Intermediate wave B low and possibly extend Intermediate wave B's length. Strongest model agreement for the wave B bottom rests within 25-29 hours in length. The lowest white rectangle contains the area of most model agreement between 4130-4150. The next strongest is the yellow rectangle which is 4210-4230. The green rectangle is my current target box at 4180-4200. These wave Bs have a history of extending greater than 100% of the preceding A wave which could place the bottom below 4103 although the likelihood is not strong. Based on the projection of a bottom near 4188 in 27 bars, the Minor waves A, B, and C are roughly placed based on historical data. These are nominal placements and most of the time are too perfect and unlucky to occur as indicated. Normally wave A could be longer and wave B shorter or vice versa. The final consideration is the location of Intermediate wave B's endpoint. This movement was originally forecasted to take a slower route, however, the weeklong gains of Intermediate wave A are indicating Intermediate wave B can end before the close on Friday. If this occurs, the final end of Intermediate wave C and Primary wave 2 could end before December 1st as seen here: This would indicate December begins the massive downtrend from ~4430 all the way down to 3400 or lower (over the course of 4-6 months). I will continue to post updates on this original analysis or in new analyses as needed. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
9
I SPY CHART - TRENDS Sharing my chart for SPY for this week. This is nothing more than a preliminary trading plan that prepares me for movement in both directions. TBH, I'm not totally sure how it plays out yet, it's one of those moments where you have to keep reanalyzing in real time to adjust prices and trends. I can say with some certainty that there is a pretty good price drop coming, and I think I've identified the trend that will cause it (hot pink). I would watch for a trend break on that trend. If it played out like this, it wouldn't surprise me, but obviously, I would rely more on the trends and price targets vs the arrow path. Good luck! Honestly, if you miss a short entry on a steep drop, instead of jumping in way too late, consider a 3x leveraged ticker and buy in the bullish direction. Realize your profits, and you'll make just as much. LONG TERM is favored for bulls until some major trends break or WW3 starts. I have other charts that cover those projections.
AMEX:SPY
by nicktussing77
2
SP500 Update 30.10.2023The SP500 index has been correcting since August. When we look at this correction, I also see that it is in line with the Elliot Wave principle. Last week, the index fell to $4115 and found the support level indicated by the volume profile indicator. I think that the index will find support around this level and return to the uptrend. Therefore, although I think that it will go down to $4060 this week, I think that it will close the week around the $4130 level. At such a close, I will receive a return confirmation. When I receive a return confirmation, I will review my share portfolio in the US stock market and make the necessary purchases.
SP:SPXLong
by YavuzAkbay
2
This week’s top will depend on….The Minor wave 4 end point will determine if Minor wave 5 (and Intermediate wave A) ends this week. This corrective wave has been tremendous, but possibly too fast. Minor wave 3 thus far has already broken above the preliminary estimates for the end of Intermediate wave A. The initial Intermediate wave A locations were based on the idea Primary wave 2 would last 278 hours and gain a total of 307 points from the low of 4103 as outlined in this idea: The movement thus far about the initial Intermediate wave A endpoint indicates the final market top is now above 4416 as opposed to around 4385. Intermediate wave A is also on pace to finish this week which is a week early. This earlier finish could point to the final market top occurring in early- to mid-December instead of the final week. Minor wave 4 does not appear to have occurred last week. The hourly chart continued to achieve wave 3 signals until the final hour of trading on Friday (visible in the EW_3_V2 indicator at the bottom of the chart when the green bars stopped painting a light blue background). This appears to indicate the final 30 minutes on Friday began Minor wave 4 downward. This analysis will project Minor wave 4’s movement based on completed waves to this point. The new derivative model indicates likely movement zones based on historical data. The small green box is based on median move and duration data, while the yellow box contains the first through third of historical quartile data. The white box should contain the overall end point as it is comprised of all common historical movement. The percentage levels to the right are based on another model-type of relational wave data. The most specific quartile data are the pink levels with the top one at 38.01% being the first quartile, middle one of 47.67% as the median and the 72.04% level is the third quartile. The historical maximum wave 4 retracement is the red level at 84.72% and most likely will not come into play for the pending wave 4 down. The next slightly broader dataset are the light blue levels and the yellow levels are the broadest dataset used. Based on these models Monday should be somewhat of a downward moving day. I would speculate the low and end to Minor wave 4 occurs on Monday, but there is a chance it happens early Tuesday as well. Once Minor wave 4 is completed, Minor wave 5 should take the market up. A general Elliott wave principle is use nearly all of the time is the length of a third wave cannot be shorter than waves 1 and 5. Right now Minor wave 1 was 16 hours and wave 2 was only 14. This would indicate Minor wave 5 must be 14 hours or less. This means the market top for this week should occur prior to the close on Wednesday and then the market will begin Intermediate wave B’s downward movement for the next week and change. In the event Minor wave 3 did not end on Friday, then the market will likely achieve another high greater than 4373.62 within the first hour or two on Monday and then begin Minor wave 4’s downward movement. A new high after the first hour of trading makes Minor wave 3 equal to or longer than Minor wave 1’s movement and no longer restricts the length of Minor wave 5. Based on the accelerated pace and high achieved in Minor wave 3, Minor wave 5’s top this week likely wont go above 4420, but that will be determined better once Minor wave 4 has completed. Although a new high should occur this week, it does not appear this week will continue the red hot movement from last week. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
ES: Fed Pivot Breathes Life into MarketsCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Last Wednesday, investors cheered as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row. On Friday, a soft jobs report backed up market expectations that the rate-hiking campaign is over. For the full week, the Dow was up by 5.07% in its best week since October 2022. The S&P was higher by 5.85% and the Nasdaq gained 6.61%. It was the best week for both indexes since November 2022. Investors Choose to Ignore What the Fed Says Stock market behavior shows that the Fed is still the dominant driver. Drilling down further, I find that what moves market is not the actual Fed action, but the expectation of what the Fed would do next. Very often, such market-moving expectations could be in direct contradiction of the Fed Chair’s public statement. At the post-FOMC press conference, the Fed Chair said that they had not made a decision for the next meeting. He also stated that pausing now would not prevent the Fed from raising rates again. The Fed Chair stressed that they had not discussed if or when to cut rates. The overarching focus now is to bring inflation down to the 2% target rate. Investors think otherwise. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of keeping rates unchanged on the December 13th FOMC is 95.4% as of November 5th. By the FOMC meeting scheduled on May 1st, 2024, the odds for cutting rates by 25-50 bps are 71%. (Link: www.cmegroup.com) Investors acted upon their expectations. Prior to the Fed meeting, Treasury yields were rising sharply. 10Y rose from 4.5% to above 5.0% in 11 days. In the three days following the rate decision, 10Y took a nosedive and now back to 4.6%. This dramatic changes in yields took place while the Fed did nothing. The stock market rebound could be attributed to the change in expectations too. Lowering rates has the effect of raising the present value of future cash flows, thus increasing a company’s market value, as prescribed by the Discounted Cash Flow valuation method. The collapse of the US dollar is due to the expectations that it would not generate higher returns without further rate increases, according to interest-rate parity theory. Let’s look at two more examples: On July 26th, the Fed raised rates by 25 bps. This was the 11th consecutive rate hike. US stocks rose initially, with the major indexes going up 1-2%. Investors interpreted that this marked the end of Fed tightening. The expectations of Fed Pivot drove market higher, even though the Fed continued to stress the important for fighting inflation. The September 20th FOMC was the first Fed Pause. On face value, this should have been taken as a huge positive. However, investors believed that the Fed would raise rates one more time by year end. US stocks falls so much that both S&P and Nasdaq lost more than 10% from their high and entered contractionary territory. Trading with E-Mini S&P Options What’s the implication from the above observation? 1. Investors may have an easier time forecasting the Fed decision itself than the market reaction after worth. A 95% probability of a Fed Pause could not tell if the stock market would rise or fall after the decision is made. 2. Investor expectations could be adjusted very quickly. Following the Fed decision, the stock market could move up or down by 5% in a week. We could build an event-driven strategy focusing on the December 13th Fed meeting. If we think that the stock market would make a sizable move after the Fed decision, CME E-Mini S&P Options on Futures could be used to express this view. The trade would not be built by this single insight only. There are more: The November jobs report will be released on Friday, December 8th, and the November CPI data will be published on Tuesday, December 12th. These big reports, available to the Fed right before the FOMC, could have a major impact on its rate decision. More importantly, it could alter investor expectations and drive market volatility. The December 2023 contract (ESE3) will be expired on Friday, December 15th, two days after the FOMC. It is also the “Triple Witching Day”, where US stock index futures, stock index options, and single-stock options contracts all expire on the same trading day. My writeup from September shows that stock market is highly likely to make a big move on Triple Witching and on the days leading up to it. With big reports, Fed decision and Triple Witching all within one week, the stock market could enter wild swings as investors digest new data. Time is ripe for options traders. CME E-Mini S&P 500 Options provide leverage and capital efficiency. Options are based on futures contracts. Contract notional is $50 x S&P 500 Index. On the morning of November 6th, the December futures contract is quoted 4,384. The out-of-the-money (OTM) call strike 4,580 is the most active call options, with over 50,000 lots traded. If a trader purchases a call and it finishes at 100 points above the strike, she will realize a gain of $5,000 (=50 x 100), minus the upfront premium she paid. If the market moves against the trade, with the index value below the strike, she will lose money, up to but not beyond the upfront premium. The OTM put strike traded 1,023 lots. If the trader purchases a put and it finishes 100 points below strike, the trader will also make $5,000, minus the premium. If the market moves against the trade to finish above the put strike, the trader will lose money, up to but not beyond the upfront premium. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
6
US500- Keylevels - DailySpectacular comeback for us500, but now let's see what will happen next week. It seems that it manages to close both the week and the day well and thus leaves room for another climb up to the area of 4398-4400. Here we have an ultimate test for buyers, let's see if they want to leave and collect the profits or if they will still stay in the game. Buyers must show strength at that level as well. As I see the price action, I would like to see a rejection from 4400, followed by a retest of the support from where to take new liquidity and where I will also be a buyer.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by sfc95
Updated Top Based On 4103 BottomIf Primary wave 1 finally ended, this the preliminary path for the remainder of 2023. The ABC waves are based on common movement and duration if Primary wave 2 is 278 hours long and moves up 307 points which are the preliminary targets. Once Intermediate wave A ends, updates for B and C (same endpoint as Primary wave 2) should be available. These targets are almost too perfect to be the specific reversal points, but the reversals should exist in the highlighted zones. The percentage levels on the far right have not changed from the last analyst however, the end point in the final week of December is an adjustment based on the two extra days added to the end of Primary wave 1's analysis from Wednesday. Some good volatile trading ahead.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
9
📈 BTC vs. S&P500: Broken Correlation & The Next Big Move!🔥🔀💰Wishes for a nice month everyone and let's all pray for logic and Peace in the World.🌍 🎓 November has started with a bang, and we're seeing some interesting movements in the financial market. 📊 🔍 Observations: Bitcoin's Rollercoaster: BTC took a slight dip today, even after a splendid performance post the Federal Reserve announcement. 💸 Inverse Correlation Emerges: Historically, Bitcoin & S&P 500 moved hand in hand. But now? They're moving in opposite directions at times! 🔄 Past Patterns: Dive into 2018, 2019, and 2020, and you'll see this dance between BTC and S&P 500. Correlation breaks, then normalizes, and ultimately... BOOM! 🚀 A significant price movement ensues. 🤔 Thoughts: ChatGPT Insights: Looked up ChatGPT for more on this correlation break. Factors like market sentiment, liquidity, and micro events could be playing a role. Current Market Trend: Bitcoin's moving up while indices correct. What's next? We might see this correlation normalize soon. 🔄 The BIG Resistance: Keep an eye on Bitcoin as it approaches the major resistance level I've been talking about. This could be a pivotal point! 🔝 🔥 Hot Takes: Bitcoin: Feeling bullish! Major support lies around 34,000, and I'm optimistic about BTC reaching the 37,000 mark and beyond. 🚀 S&P 500: Spotted a significant resistance at 4,327. Bearish trends have been dominant since last year, but a break above this resistance could change the narrative. 🐻 vs 🐂 In conclusion, watch out for the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. When it breaks and normalizes, it might just present a golden opportunity! 🌟 Keep observing, analyzing and take grown up decisions; stay vigilant, and remember to do risk management and have patience 💰 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 link:
SP:SPX
by FX_Professor
SasanSeifi 💁‍♂ S&P Index 🔼4185 / 4220 / 4240 Hey there! In the 4-hour time frame, the S&P index, as observed, has shown positive reactions after a decline, starting from the range of 4100, and is currently trading around 4157. The expectation we can have in the 4-hour time frame is that, following this consolidation, we may witness growth towards the ranges of 4180 / 4220 / 4240. To better understand the continuation of this price movement, it's crucial to see how it reacts to the resistance ranges. There's a possibility of a rejection from these levels. Additionally, if it manages to penetrate above the supply zone and establish itself, the target range of 4300 can be considered. Maintaining the support range of 4100 is very important for the desired scenario 🔵Remember, always conduct your own analysis and consider other factors before making any trading decisions. Good luck!"✌️ ❎ (DYOR)...⚠️⚜️ Sure, if you have any more questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I'm here to help! if you found my analysis helpful, I would appreciate it if you could show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌
CAPITALCOM:US500
by SasanSeifi