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Why Burry Bet Against the US MarketBurry has frequently expressed his views on Twitter (X), asserting that the market has not made a genuine recovery and is headed for a recession. He believes it's just a matter of time before we witness the ultimate impact. Many individuals consider Burry to be an extreme pessimist, contending that he consistently focuses on the negative aspects. However, in the lead-up to the 2008 market crash, people also criticized him for being overly pessimistic and opposed his ideas. The purpose of this post is to delve into his perspectives and examine some recent information I've been investigating in order to determine whether the market situation is indeed in line with his claims Who is Michael Burry? Michael Burry is a renowned American investor and former hedge fund manager. He gained widespread recognition for accurately predicting the 2008 financial crisis and profiting from it through his hedge fund, Scion Capital. Burry is also known for his contrarian investment style and is a proponent of value investing. His story is prominently featured in Michael Lewis's book, "The Big Short.” Today, we will examine data that reveals the current state of the American market. Through this data, we will learn to understand the reasons behind why the market may be weaker than it appears, despite all the hype and the notion that the American market has "recovered.” What’s Burry Concerns Economic Concerns: Despite positive stock market performance and GDP projections, Burry, along with other notable investors like Warren Buffett, sees potential issues in the global economy. Federal Reserve Actions: Burry and others believe this situation is unsustainable and may lead to economic stagnation next year, characterized by weak growth, rising inflation, and labor shortages. 1. Michael Burry said is Velocity is nominal GDP/Money Supply (M2 here). QT + higher rates starting to use M2 down. Yet we are seeing a tick up in velocity, emerging from narrative obscurity, In 1978-79, rising velocity trumped failing money supply to drive inflation higher and higher redux would shock Full Explanation: "Velocity" is like the speed at which money moves in the economy. Imagine money as a car. The car's speed (velocity) is how fast it's moving. "Nominal GDP" is the total value of goods and services produced in the economy. "M2" is a measure of the money supply, including things like cash, checking accounts, and savings accounts. Now, let's break it down: If the economy's car (money) is moving faster (velocity), it can boost economic growth (Nominal GDP). "QT" means Quantitative Tightening, which is when the central bank reduces the amount of money in the economy. "Higher rates" means they raise interest rates. When you reduce the amount of money (QT) and raise interest rates, the car (money) slows down (Velocity decreases). When you reduce the amount of money (QT) and raise interest rates, the car (money) slows down (Velocity decreases). Recently, we've seen the car (Velocity) speeding up, even though the central bank has been reducing money (QT) and increasing interest rates. In the late 1970s (1978-79), a similar thing happened. The car's speed (Velocity) became more important than the amount of money (Money Supply) in driving up prices (inflation). "Redux" means a repeat of something. So, the statement suggests that if we see a repeat of the 1978-79 situation, it would be surprising and could lead to higher inflation. In simple terms, it's like saying that even though the central bank is trying to slow down the economy by reducing money and raising interest rates, we're still seeing fast economic growth. This reminds us of a situation in the late 1970s when fast economic growth led to higher prices. If this happens again, it would be surprising and could cause inflation. 2.The second thing Burry believes is that there is a bubble in the housing market, similar to the one in 2008. Instructions chat above green (rising market) yellow (small drop market) Red (absolute bear market) He believes that housing prices are over inflated and that many homeowners are still carrying significant levels of debt he is warned that a housing market downturn could trigger a wave of default that would Ripple through the banking system and The Wider economy finally bury has expressed concern about the vulnerability of the banking system which he believes is over leveraged and under-capitalized he has warned that a wave of bank failures could trigger a major crisis similar to the 2008 financial crisis overall buries prediction that another major financial crisis is on the horizon. Explanation for chart above As you can see from the chart , we are not yet showing strong signs of a collapse like in 2008. However, there is a chain of signs that it is beginning to slow down and approach a potential downturn. When a higher time frame displays characteristics in yellow between red, there is a chance of an impending collapse. For now, we must treat this information as neutral and avoid letting our biases guide us. 3.The Third thing is Burry concern about the current state of the stock market. Instructions chat above green (rising market) yellow (small drop market) Red (absolute bear market) Bury has expressed concern about the current state of the stock market, the housing market, and the banking system, all of which he believes are overvalued and vulnerable to a major downturn. Burry has also expressed concern about the high levels of debt in the U.S. economy, which he believes are unsustainable and could trigger a major crisis. He has pointed to the rising levels of corporate and government debt, as well as the growing number of (companies that can only service their debt but not pay it down), as evidence of this. Burry has also expressed concern about the current state of the stock market, which he believes is again overvalued and driven by speculation rather than fundamentals. Explanation for chart above As you can see in the chart, the market has not yet fully recovered despite the recent increases in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. It's evident that the rally is weak compared to previous years. This analysis indicates a temporary market weakening, with no strong signs of a full recovery at the moment Let's now take a deeper dive into less visible yet crucial information. We'll focus on areas that require understanding their unusual aspects and the reasons behind them. What do I mean? To uncover something unusual, patience and extensive economic research are required. Through this process, we can discover intriguing insights that provide valuable context to the economic situation in the USA. For example, let's examine: a. M2 - MONEY SUPPLY In the graph, you'll notice something that hasn't occurred since 1963. With the help of a tool, we can observe periods of increase (green) and slight decrease (yellow), but no instances of absolute decrease (red). What does this signify? What's the context behind it? After conducting research, I found an explanation. I'm referring to: Financial Stress and Banking Issues: A sharp decline in M2 may indicate underlying financial stress or problems within the banking and financial sector. This is a significant reason as it highlights potential vulnerabilities in the financial system, which could have broader implications for the economy. It might prompt regulators and policymakers to address these issues to prevent a more severe crisis. Do you still find this unremarkable? Remember, this is just one perspective on the situation. b. Unemployment Rate It is crucial to examine the Unemployment Rate, and I've specifically focused on the Unemployment Rate in California. This is because, in the end, the fundamental Unemployment Rate tends to converge to a similar outcome. Currently, in the graph, we observe the color white, which indicates the start of an uptick in unemployment, representing slow growth. White denotes a slow growth momentum or a potentially deceptive rally. Therefore, it's important to note that we have not yet reached the green phase, which signifies a definite increase in the Unemployment Rate. Historically, every time the Unemployment Rate has turned green, it has been followed by an economic downturn. it is essential to remain vigilant. If the Unemployment Rate continues to rise steadily, it may lead to economic stress. On the other hand, if M2 money supply is shrinking or experiencing volatility while the Unemployment Rate is increasing, it points to economic stress and potential issues. A declining money supply reflects reduced liquidity, making it harder for businesses to access capital for growth and causing financial stress. Simultaneously, a rising Unemployment Rate indicates that more people are struggling to secure jobs, further straining the economy. This situation can result in reduced consumer spending, decreased investment, and heightened economic uncertainty, potentially contributing to a market downturn or recession. c. Gold Investors Currently, there's something intriguing happening among certain investors worldwide. Over the past few months, some investors have been stockpiling gold. Since March 2023, gold has displayed a (green) signal, indicating a bullish trend. This suggests that people have been accumulating gold from March until now, similar to the trend seen in 2003. It's possible that some investors perceive the market as risky and view gold as a safety net. However, it's important to note that there can be instances of deception, as seen in 2016 and 2017 when gold turned green but didn't perform significantly and even dropped by 10 percent on three occasions. Such situations occur periodically and not consistently. For instance, investors also purchased gold from 2019 until the end of 2021 (despite the significant impact of COVID-19 starting in 2020), indicating that some investors can spot signs ahead of time. There are more examples from the past. Hence, it's fascinating to closely monitor recent developments in the gold market to see if it can break records or experiences setbacks like in 2016-2017. There are many more examples, but I will stop here. The purpose of this post is to emphasize that thinking outside the box is often more fruitful. Instead of sticking to a linear approach, gather as much information as possible, seek connections between two factors, then three, and continue to cross-reference vast datasets. By effectively cross-referencing, we enhance our ability to assess probabilities and reduce uncertainty. This reflects my personal viewpoint. I observe that the market has reached a plateau in the SP500, NASDAQ, and most markets. There is a possibility that this is a temporary phase, or it may indicate an impending decline. My focus is on monitoring real-time data and responding accordingly, rather than attempting to predict the future. Whenever I perceive the market as (red), I take action. Likewise, when I see it as (green), I take action. Ultimately, my goal is to remain adaptable and respond to prevailing market conditions. In the future, I will continue to provide updates in the event of shifts in market conditions, inflation, new data, and additional information. This will contribute to assembling a comprehensive puzzle that offers clarity on the overall situation.
SP:SPX
by BlackMammoth
1
Boeing Company: The Underpressured PathBoeing results topped analyst expectations Wednesday thanks to a pickup in commercial aircraft deliveries as the manufacturer increases production, but losses in its defense and space businesses drove the manufacturer into the red for the quarter. The company generated $2.6 billion of free cash flow in the second quarter, ahead of analyst forecasts, and reiterated its full-year guidance of between $3 billion and $5 billion of free cash flow. Boeing shares surged 12.70% just in a week, and closed on Friday at $238.69, the stock’s highest closing price since November 2021. Here’s how the company performed during the period ended June 30, compared with Refinitiv consensus estimates: 👉 Adjusted loss per share: 82 cents vs. 88 cents. 👉 Revenue: $19.75 billion vs. $18.45 billion 👉 Boeing and main rival Airbus have both struggled to increase aircraft production in the wake of the Covid pandemic as some airlines face longer waits for new jets, just as travel demand rebounds. The company delivered 136 planes in the second quarter, up from 121 aircraft during the same period last year. Meanwhile just a take a look what historically happened with Boeing stocks, almost every time after 10+ percent weekly advance. In simple words - that's been a flat, or even more than 10 percent decline. Technical picture indicates that Bearish trend still is in power in NYSE:BA stocks, and 5yrs SMA is still a huge resistance.
NYSE:BA
by PandorraResearch
8
Two Large Rallies Before the Bottom Falls Out in 2024If Primary 1 finished today, it hit the forecasted mark from here: And here: The original call for the end of Primary wave 1 ending in October was here (August 2 idea #1): However, I knew the bottom of Primary 1 would be a little later than the initial forecast once Intermediate wave 1 was late in hitting the mark. The initial forecast for the end of Primary wave 1 was based on the theory the complete bear market would end between August 2024 and April 2025. Based on 6 likely end locations (from relational data based on Cycle wave A and B behaviors), I back calculated what each Primary wave would have to do to achieve this movement which were the pink boxes in this idea (August 2 idea #2): Basically waves 1-5 fulfill a particular amount of the overall wave’s length and movement and I took first and second sigma values to determine the range. From those pink boxes I estimated Primary wave 1’s likely end location if the final market bottom occurred in September 2024. Primary wave 1 should end around October 5, 2023 to hit this final market bottom. From this date, I back calculated what Intermediate wave 1 should do to hit this target as outlined in the first August 2 chart above. Once Intermediate wave 1 finished a week after the first estimate, I figured Primary wave 1 must be at least a week and a day later than planned. Once Primary wave 1 ended, I can then go back to the idea with the pink boxes to make the first assumptions about the final market endpoint in late 2024 or Q1 2025. Based on the end of Primary 1 occurring after the right side (outside) of the first two boxes, the end should occur after September 2024. Based on the movement occurring above the top of the sixth box, the market top should occur above 2733. The furthest end point in April 2025 is less likely with the drop not occurring below 2733 and it is also ruled out. The current forecast for the market bottom is between September 23, 2024 and March 30, 2025 likely in the range of 2878.89-3183.44. I am leaning more toward the date of the 2024 election, possibly the day results are finalized. These values will change and likely narrow as each subsequent wave is completed over the next 12 months until the final target is fairly precise like the current bottom called out today. With these updated forecasts in mind, it is time to make the first projections for Primary wave 2’s end location. Pre-estimate was early- to mid-December last week. The current projection is between December 12, 2023 and January 2, 2024. Most models keep the end point before the end of year holiday weeks but more data should clean up the date. The models are much stronger with large agreement in a tight window between 4460-4480. The secondary window and more conservative target is a top between 4420-4450. These are determined based on the below methodology. The derivative model does not provide values for waves 1-2 and A-B. The Intermediate wave A and B endpoints are nominally placed and not currently based on calculations (do not expect them to be official/accurate). The overall path to the bottom looks like: METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
The 1.2 and 1.2 pattern and the bull market continues! Think Greetings, dear friends. I hope you are having a productive week. I am happy to assist you in ensuring that all previous analyses are attached to each corresponding analysis. This will provide a comprehensive overview and help you make well-informed decisions. Please do not hesitate to let me know if there is anything else I can do to assist you further. I want to share my market analysis ideas based on the Elliott Wave Principle with you. I am a fan of this principle and follow all the rules and guidelines for analyzing the market. However, please note that my ideas are based on my personal experience and may change over time. If there is an error in my analysis, I am open to re-analyzing it from the beginning and learning from my mistakes. It's important to understand that making an error in analysis is not a fault, but evading responsibility is. No one can analyze financial markets with 100% accuracy, but it's remarkable how close we can get. We analyze from multiple perspectives to consider all possibilities. Let's mention a few opinions and ideas! Based on mathematics. I am still practicing to understand the Elliott Wave Principle better and hope to provide an even better analysis in the future. Thank you for your continued support, and I look forward to our mutual success. Best regards, Mr. Nobody Keep trying and never give up. Good luck!
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
Nasdaq Bank Index: Putting A Bad Hair Day Into PerspectiveElon Musk still sees danger ahead for the US economy if the Fed does not contain the regional banking crisis. Financial blog Zero Hedge previously tweeted about the critical role of small and medium-sized banks in the US financial system — a hot topic following the sharp collapse this month of Silicon Valley Bank, a technology startup lender and the first bank to be taken over by regulators since the 2008 financial crisis. Small and medium banks account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending and 60% of residential real estate lending, among other loans, notes Zero Hedge with accompanying charts. “If the Fed does not contain the collapse of regional banks, there will be another Great Depression,” it wrote, referring to the economic crisis that lasted from 1929 to 1939. "This is a serious risk," Musk replied to Zero Hedge. According to the US Department of Labor, in 1933, at the height of the Great Depression, approximately 25% of the 12.8 million people in the US labor force were unemployed. This wasn't the first time Musk had intervened on his social media about the collapse of the SVB. Last week, he compared the bank failure to the Wall Street crash of the 1920s that preceded the Great Depression. "There are a lot of similarities this year with 1929," Tesla CEO said in response to a post from Ark Invest' Cathy Wood. Nasdaq Bank Index BSE:BANK includes securities of companies listed on the NASDAQ that are classified under the industry classification benchmark as banks. These include banks that provide a wide range of financial services, including retail banking, loans and money transfers. On February 5, 1971, the underlying NASDAQ Bank Index was 100 points.
NASDAQ:BANK
by PandorraResearch
5
S&P500 - Long; For now ...This naturally rimes with the Nasdaq signals and with the overall global equities outlook. Here, two opposing forces are the most significant factor; 1) The unfolding (and enduring!) USD strength - Downward pressure ; 2) The massive, continuously inbound (to US) capital flows , primarily from Europe - Upward pressure . Driven by the rapidly unraveling globalization (driven by a Europe which the US decided to turn into a bonfire that is now clearly visible from Alpha-Centauri, and a China which is dying of old age as the demographic apocalypse is hitting hard this year - 2023), these fundamental forces will likely make this year one for the records - especially when it comes index (equities) trading. Many, many trading opportunities to be expected, throughout this year, probably far more than in other periods. Laissez le bon temp roule!! ...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
8
US 100 INDEX. THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW - LET'S GO DIVINGThere are looming risks that could "break" the US economy and end its current growth cycle. Third-quarter GDP estimates are tracking above 5% and the US economy has added more than 2 million jobs year-to-date. But there are three looming risks that could "break" the stock market and economy and end its current growth cycle, according to a Tuesday note from Ned Davis Research. These are the three risks to consider. 1. A resurgence in inflation Inflation has made progress in trending towards the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target after CPI peaked at about 9% last June, but any resurgence in rising prices would threaten the trajectory of the Fed's current tightening cycle. 2. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.00% The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged so far this year, hitting a 16-year high of 5.02% on Monday. A further increase in this key benchmark rate would spell trouble for the broader economy, specifically if the yield breaks above the 5.25% level. The 5.00 - 5.50% yield range TVC:TNX was an important double-top in 2006/2007, and also represented the peak policy rate of that tightening cycle. So perhaps we wouldn't take a break of that level lightly. Higher interest rates increase borrowing rates for consumers and businesses and often curtail demand, leading to slower economic growth, if not a contraction in growth. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.86% on Tuesday. 3. Credit conditions deteriorating So far this year, the bond market has been more concerned about interest rate risks than credit risks. Technical graph below for US 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX says that main 125-Day SMA support has been broken as well as major upside trend, and technical figure known as "Head and Shoulders" is in progress right now.
TVC:NDQ
by PandorraResearch
Tesla Just Had Its Worst 4Mo Red Combo. Nightmare, or a Chance?!Tesla's stock just had its worst week of 2023, plunging 16% on Elon Musk's earnings-call nightmare. Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA shares plunged 16% over the five-day stretch ending October 20, as disappointing third-quarter earnings and a disastrous call led by CEO Elon Musk sparked a sell-off. The nightmarish week wiped nearly $130 million off the EV maker's total market capitalization. while Musk's own personal fortune declined by around $30 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index . The stock is still up appr. 80% year-to-date, but has given up some of its gains over the past few months with the early-2023 hype around AI fading and investors starting to fret about the impact of higher interest rates. Last Wednesday, on Oct 18, 2023 Tesla reported quarterly earnings that fell well short of Wall Street's expectations. The company posted adjusted earnings-per-share of $0.66, missing the consensus estimate of $0.74, and also underperformed analysts' revenue forecasts. Musk then said in a post-earnings call that Tesla had likely "dug own grave with the Cybertruck" due to enormous production challenges, and warned of several economic headwinds that could drag on demand. Tesla just had its worst 4-months Red Combo since June 2023, while Tesla stocks price fading after that within four months in a row, from July till October (in this time). Sure we can call this performance like a "mini-disaster", but still it's too early to say that world's richest man became a "little baby" who is "fully in tears". Meanwhile strong and powerful technical analysis says that the carmaker's hellish string isn't a bad one, while buyout things right here to come. Tesla stocks were doing well in June 2023, where bearish hugs and weekly SMA (52) were broken, so I have to say, there is almost no hellish right here, just a technical confirmation of reversal that has happened several months ago in 2023. Tech graph below is a long-term view, with further updates on monthly/ quarterly basis.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by PandorraResearch
Final Final Leg Down For NowHere is the current forecast assuming Minor wave 4 completed at today’s high. The original bottom of Intermediate wave 5 based on all data acquired at the end of Intermediate wave 4 is on the right. The short, long blue box was the original forecasted low based on my derivative modeling. The current forecasted levels based on possible Minor wave 5 data points are on the left. There is overlap with the original areas. The low can happen fast and likely before October 26th. The low will likely remain between 4147 and 4180. It can always go lower. Original call was a low around 4175. It is possible we go below this by 10-15 points. Once this bottom is in, it is finally rally time (short-lived but at least a month of 250+ points. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Back to 4400 Before Christmas, Down to...Assuming Minor wave C finished Intermediate wave 4 on Tuesday, next stop is the end of Intermediate wave 5 down. All models and the derivative analysis points to a very quick drop. Preliminary target bottom is 4179 before the Fed meeting. The full, yet narrow target bottom is the white box below. Once Primary wave 1 is finished (Intermediate wave 5 ends it), the market will see-saw upward for possibly a month and a half. The projected up and down is more of a perfect world scenario. The actual ABC waves will likely vary. The endpoint of Primary wave 2 is actually based on Primary wave 1 ending at 4179.50 on October 26th. I was surprised to see the models limit the Primary wave 2 high at 4400. That is basically where the market just was and it will drop about 200 points en route to 4400. The Primary wave 3 drop after 4400 should be pretty significant with lows likely below 3700 over 5-8 months. I will continue to updates the forecasts as each micro wave completes. It is most interesting to see if Intermediate wave 5/Primary wave 1 complete in the target box as this was based on the new derivative analysis modelling I created. The standard deviation of historical data was very small, which hopefully means relatively accurate. I currently have AAPL 170 and SPY 431 puts for November 3rd expirations as a test of these new models. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
Top 10 books in tradingAs a trader now of over 23 years, I have read a few hundred trading books in that time. It is always really interesting to have other people's perspective, strategies, hint, tips and tools. However, the main issue is not knowing if you are likely to get value from the book you purchase as it is also very subjective. You either have issues such as the book is too basic, or the other end of the scale, it's too advanced. During the 20 plus years, I found a number of great books that helped me - but also ones I have shared with others over the years. Regardless of your level of knowledge how do you know what works or would work for you or your style of trading? I put this list together in no real order, but I'll try to summarise each with a little about what I liked or what you can take away. ============================================================== "The Wall Street Jungle" Written by Richard Ney, first published in 1970. In this book, Ney provides readers with an insider's perspective on the world of finance and investment. He delves into the complexities and pitfalls of Wall Street, offering a critical examination of the stock market and the investment industry. Ney, a former Wall Street insider himself, reveals the often deceptive practices and psychological games played by brokers and financial institutions. He discusses the dangers of following investment advice blindly and emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making when it comes to managing one's finances. Throughout the book, Ney uses real-life examples and anecdotes to illustrate the challenges and temptations that investors face. He also explores the psychological aspects of investing, discussing how emotions can influence financial decisions and lead to costly mistakes. What I like about this is the emphasis put on the market makers, as a trader who uses Wyckoff Techniques, it made more sense when identifying with Composite Man theory. "Trading in the Zone" By Mark Douglas that focuses on the psychology of trading and investing. Published in 2000, the book offers valuable insights into the mental aspects of successful trading. Douglas emphasizes the idea that trading is not just about mastering technical analysis or market fundamentals but also about mastering one's own emotions and mindset. This book was one of the best in terms of psychology, every trader has a different appetite for risk and even profits, this is a huge factor in trading especially early on. If you struggle with psychology of trading or the emotions, I would 100% recommend this one. "The Wealth of Nations" Written by the Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith, first published in 1776. This influential work is considered one of the foundational texts in the field of economics and is often regarded as the birth of modern economics. In the book Smith explores the principles of a free-market capitalist system and the mechanisms that drive economic prosperity. He famously introduces the concept of the "invisible hand," which suggests that individuals pursuing their self-interest in a competitive market inadvertently contribute to the greater good of society. For me, the rules of economics have not changed much since the creation of this book. appreciating moves such as DXY up = Gold down, is simple economics. The main take away is again around Wyckoff theory for me and the fact the "invisible hand" is exactly why and how some fail and some profit. "The Go-Giver" Although not technically a trading book, it's one of the best little business/life stories. self-help book co-authored by Bob Burg and John David Mann. Published in 2007, it presents a unique and compelling philosophy on success and achieving one's goals. The book revolves around the story of a young, ambitious professional named Joe who is seeking success in his career. Through a series of encounters with a mentor named Pindar, Joe learns the "Five Laws of Stratospheric Success." These laws, which are principles of giving, value, influence, authenticity, and receptivity, guide him on a transformative journey toward becoming a true "go-giver." The way I saw this from a trading perspective is pretty much, the value given by stocks or companies is something Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham investment theory was all about. Although a different type of value - you can understand why instruments such as gold or oil have a place, a value and this can be deemed as expensive or fair at any given point. These waves are what really moves the market. "The Zurich Axioms" A book written by Max Gunther, originally published in 1985. This book offers a set of investment and risk management principles derived from the wisdom and practices of Swiss bankers in Zurich. The Zurich Axioms provide a unique and unconventional approach to investing and wealth management. The book presents a series of investment "axioms," or guidelines, that challenge conventional wisdom in the world of finance. These axioms emphasize risk management, flexibility, and the willingness to take calculated risks. They encourage investors to think independently and avoid the herd mentality often associated with financial markets. For me it's more about investing and less about trading. But the deep down message is all to do with ultimately wealth preservation, I have been in the wealth management and investment space and found it interesting that the more an investor has, the less about making money it becomes and more about safe guarding that capital it gets. "Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side" Written by Howard Marks, a renowned investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. Published in 2018, the book delves into the critical concept of market cycles and provides insights on how investors can navigate them to enhance their investment strategies. In the book, Marks emphasizes the cyclical nature of financial markets and discusses the inevitability of market fluctuations. He explores the factors and indicators that drive market cycles, such as economic data, investor sentiment, and market psychology. Marks' central thesis is that investors can improve their chances of success by understanding where they are in the market cycle and adjusting their investment decisions accordingly. I had a spooky delve into market cycles, I have a good friend who told me he did not trade price, instead time. This was something I could not really figure out, but was so fascinating that the markets can work in cycles. It was interesting that Larry Williams also discussed a similar thing with the Orange Juice market's in one of his books. "How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities" And here is Larry Williams' book. provides an insider's perspective on his successful journey as a commodities trader. In this book, Williams shares his personal experiences, strategies, and insights into the world of commodity trading. He outlines the specific techniques and tactics he used to achieve remarkable profits in a single year. While the book may not offer a guaranteed formula for success, it offers valuable lessons on risk management, market analysis, and the psychology of trading. It serves as both an inspiration for aspiring traders and a guide for those looking to improve their trading skills in the volatile world of commodities. For me, the COT intel is invaluable. When you learn what drives markets really, COT is such a useful tool to have at your disposal. "Nature's Law: The Secret of the Universe" A groundbreaking book by Ralph Nelson Elliott, the creator of the Elliott Wave Theory. Published in the early 20th century, this influential work introduced a novel perspective on market analysis and price prediction. Elliott's theory posits that financial markets and other natural phenomena follow a repetitive, fractal pattern that can be analyzed through wave patterns. He outlines the concept of impulsive and corrective waves and demonstrates how these waves form trends in various financial markets. The book delves into the idea that the market's movements are not entirely random but instead exhibit an underlying order, governed by these wave patterns. Elliott's ideas have had a profound impact on technical analysis and have been adopted by traders and analysts worldwide. "Nature's Law" serves as the foundation of the Elliott Wave Theory, offering valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding and predicting financial markets based on natural patterns and mathematical principles. If you want to learn about Elliott Waves - here it is from the horse's mouth as they say. "Master the art of Trading" By Lewis Daniels - Master the Art of Trading trader, offers a quick, easy, and comprehensive roadmap to trading. It explores the grand theories and behavioural economics underpinning the markets, from Elliot Wave Theory to Composite Man. It unpicks visual data, such as candlestick graphs and trend lines. It equips readers with the correct tools to make sense of the data and to make better trades. And it helps readers uncover their innate strengths, realise their propensity for risk, and discover what sort of trader they are - on order to optimise their behaviour to make them as effective as possible. This book puts together all of the core trading requirements from the basic trendline through to psychology and technical techniques. "The Intelligent Investor" a classic and highly influential book on the subject of value investing, written by Benjamin Graham and first published in 1949. Graham, a renowned economist and investor, is often considered the "father of value investing." The book offers a comprehensive guide to the principles and strategies of sound, long-term investing. Graham's central concept is the distinction between two types of investors: the defensive, "intelligent" investor and the speculative investor. He emphasizes the importance of conducting in-depth analysis and due diligence to make informed investment decisions, rather than engaging in market speculation. I don't think any list of trading books is complete without this one! It's the Warren Buffer Holy Grail. For me, it's about risk management, finding value - especially with investments like value stocks. Using compounding interest and the factor of time to your advantage. ===================================================================== I would be keen to get comments and other book recommendations from the trading community here on Tradingview.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
5
Powell's Speech to Provide Market Direction?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 10/19 This week marks the beginning of the peak of Q3 earnings season, and a potential inflection points in the geopolitical risks with signs of potential ground operations to begin by Israel in Gaza. Geopolitical risks, high interest rates, sticky inflation, extremely strong jobs market, early signs of consumers beginning to scale back...yet, retail bullish positioning has increased this week again. Powell's speech today may not necessarily provide any clear market direction, yet it could lead to some knee jerk moves. We have been publishing for the last two weeks: "Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated". Now, this 4310 is the main support level and a daily close below that is needed for our models to turn bearish. The market tested this level briefly yesterday, Wed. 10/18, but bounced right back up to close a few points above it. This level may come into play again today, and how the price action ends today with respect to this level could give us some indications of near-term market direction. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4377, 4352, 4322, 4306, or 4285 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4365, 4345, 4312, 4301, or 4280 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4370 or 4319, and explicit short exits on a break above 4370 or 4314. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:59am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger, #israel, #geopolitical, #earnings, #powellspeech
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Observing SPX Range-Bound Move: Be Caution and Stay AlertToday, I wanted to draw your attention to the recent performance of the SPX, which has been exhibiting a range-bound behavior over the past year. As we navigate through these uncertain times, it is crucial to stay vigilant and monitor the market closely. Over the last year, the SPX has shown a tendency to trade within a specific range, with price movements oscillating between key support and resistance levels. This range-bound behavior implies that the market has been lacking a clear direction, making it essential for investors to exercise caution and closely observe the price action. Currently, the SPX is hovering around the $4569 level, which serves as a significant resistance point. Should the price break through this level decisively, it could potentially signal a bullish trend. In such a scenario, it may be prudent to consider long positions, taking advantage of the potential upside momentum. On the other hand, it is equally important to be prepared for a potential downside move. If the price falls below the long-term support level of $3800, it could indicate a bearish trend. In this case, it may be wise to consider short-term positions or even adopt a more cautious approach in the long term. Given the current market dynamics, I encourage you to closely watch the SPX's price movements, paying particular attention to the key support and resistance levels mentioned. By doing so, you will be better equipped to make informed investment decisions and navigate the market with prudence. As always, it is essential to remember that investing involves inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Therefore, I recommend consulting with a financial advisor or conducting thorough research before making any investment decisions. Should you have any questions or require further assistance, please feel free to comment below.
CBOE:SPX
by bryandowningqln