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Sp500index

Down For Two More Days and then...Today’s break below 4238 all but sealed the deal on Minor wave 4 going up higher. Most likely path now is the index is well into Minor wave 5 en route to the bottom below 4130 in the coming days. Some signs that Intermediate wave 3 does not have much more to decline is the multiple wave 3 signals visible on the Daily chart. A gap between wave 3 signals indicates the end of a wave 3 of 3 and the beginning of the end of the wave 3 itself. The first signal clearly occurred where Minor wave 3 was believed to have ended. A return of the signal based on today’s trading means we may get a few more days of signaling before the bottom is established. But this firmly hints that Minor 4 is no more. The data for forecasting Intermediate wave 3 remains valid from yesterday as nothing has changed to impact those values. The slope to move up to yesterday’s forecasted Minor 4 endpoint to the Intermediate wave 3 endpoint looks much more realistic today after confirmation Minor wave 4 ended many hours ago. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. MINOR 5: Minor wave 1 was 21 hours, wave 2 was 40 hours, wave 3 was 62 hours, and wave 4 was a measly 10 hours. There are zero requirements left in play for Minor wave 5’s length meaning it can end tomorrow or a week from now (less likely, just getting the point across). Minor wave 5 is currently 20 hours old. The models point to a duration for Minor wave 5 to be less than 59 hours which would be the morning of October 11th. Some models indicate 45-50 hours for duration, with a renewed uptick around 52-54 hours long. Another pocket of strength is at 35 hours which is just over 2 trading days away. Models are indicating a bottom between 4115-4150 for Minor wave 5, with a bottom as early as 4200. The overlap in the Minor wave 5 bottom and Intermediate wave 3 bottom is a small area between 4115-4140 between the end of trading on Friday and midday next Monday. While both the yellow and magenta boxes could contain (or neither) the bottom, this small white overlap box will be the focus. ECONOMIC CALENDAR: If the bottom is Friday or Monday, Friday is very busy from a news standpoint, while Monday appears calm. If the bottom is Friday, it may go down initially as the early morning numbers are digested but then beginning to slowly move up later or Monday begins to drift upward on no news and a holiday for some folks.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
SP500: Consolidation in Short Term?Hi Traders! Medium and Long-Term Trends are bullish, but in short term SP500 could remain bearish even after a pullback. If we look at daily chart, the Price Action is approaching an important support area around 4,305, if from here it triggers a bullish leg, it's possible a harmonic structure formation (for us, bearish). Having said that, we have a first Target Area around 4,275 and subsequently 4,220. Trade with care Like | Share | Comment
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by TheAnonymousBanker
7
Rising Yields Making a Rebound Less LikelyS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 10/03 Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4310 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. But, the near term bias will be determined by today's daily close as specified above. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4310, 4300, 4281, 4373, or 4260 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4297, 4280, 4264, or 4257 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4314 or 4288, and explicit short exits on a break above 4265. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Week starts up, before short bear runCurrent assumption is that Minute waves A and B are complete and the final Minute wave C should bring the market up early this week to complete Minor wave 4. The high for the week should occur prior the close on Tuesday. This analysis will point out the levels and locations to monitor for this event. An early peek of Intermediate wave 3’s final projection is also included. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points, but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly more broad, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. MINUTE WAVE C For the Minute wave C finishing points, estimated end is between the final hour of trading on Monday through the final hour on Tuesday. The general level for the top is 4345-4360, quite a bit of data points to the 4355-4360 area, there is another pocket between 4370-4380 which is the red box. I am not looking for the top that high, but the data says it is possible so it is important to be aware of it. MINOR WAVE 4 Minor wave 4's target box is the larger yellow box (Minute wave C in Minor 4 was the green box which included the white box). The yellow box was larger before the Minute waves inside of it traded. The overlap of both Minute wave C and Minor 4 end points favors the white box which is my target. Once Minor 4 is over, the market should head down to finish Intermediate wave 3 with Minor wave 5. I will forecast Minor wave 5, once data is available and pointing to the completion of Minor 4. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 Intermediate wave 3 will finish with Minor wave 5 and the updated forecast places the now doable target box between 4040-4140. Strongest data is between 4080-4105 which I will assign as the current target. Back at 4450, 4150 seemed like a long shot, but time and a strong third wave make it possible. Short-term jubilation could see the upward finish of Minor wave 4 IF a government shutdown is averted as the current downside to this event is a drop in the US credit rating. Typically, government shutdowns are welcomed and positive for the market, but the country has not been under the threat of a credit downgrade should the event occur. Inflation numbers were up on Friday and should continue to look bad through the end of Intermediate wave 3. The $20+ rise in oil over the past 2 months has not significantly impacted the price of goods yet, the OPEC meeting this week could assist in tipping those scales and sending the market into Minor wave 5 down. Still unsure what causes Intermediate wave 4 to take markets upward from mid-October through likely mid-November. SCHEDULED ECONOMIC NEWS: Monday will have manufacturing data and Fed speakers while not much on Tuesday. This could point to the gains being more on Monday and slowing on Tuesday if not already reversing. Wednesday is a heavy news day. United States PPI data comes out October 11, which is around the projected time of the market bottom and end of Intermediate wave 3. CPI is the following day. If this is the start of the market reversal and movement upward, it would appear the September inflation numbers did not rise. Next FOMC meeting is end of October and could be a key event for the end of Intermediate 4’s rise and begin the next monthlong market drop.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
No Rebound In Sight While Below 4320S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 10/02 Since our published trading plans two weeks ago pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4320 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. This morning, the index is attempting to test the 4320 level. If the daily close is going to be above 4320, then our models will negate the bearish bias and initiate a mildly bullish bias. The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. But, the near term bias will be determined by today's daily close as specified above. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4322, 4301, or 4277 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4319, 4297, 4273, or 4261 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4314 or 4288, and explicit short exits on a break above 4265. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
🟥 Divergence on NAS vs Stocks above 200D - cautionI have spoken about this since begining of the year but now it materializes nicely. The market has never survived narrow niche rallies and this has never been the characteristic of a bull market. As you see the Nasdaq Composite has started to pull as the percent of stocks above their respective 200 D Moving average is well below 40%. To be confident that we are really oversold I would like to see the TVC:VIX go to above 25 on this pullback. Caution is advised.
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by TintinTrading
[EN] W Recession in SP500 // GaliortiTradingThe next crisis will be very similar to that of the 2000-2010 period. At first, the economic crisis will condition a bursting of the technology and fast-growing stock bubble, only to be followed by a financial crisis after a short-lived recovery. First floor: first quarter of 2025 . SP:SPX = 2.470 Second floor: second quarter of 2030 : SP:SPX = 2.100 Soft landing for the next quarters? Don't believe it! Bond market losses, office real estate in USA crisis, Citibank surprise indicators plummeting, manufacturing PMI, investment rate curve , real estate crisis and economic slowdown in China, historical record of credit card defaults (consumer collapse), cash flow difficulties of medium and small banks , reduction of the balance sheet of the FED and other major central banks , the effect of higher oil prices on the economy (restriction of oil production by Saudi Arabia/Russia), increase in the cost of r efinancing the huge public debt due to high interest rates, ....
SP:SPXShort
by GaliortiTrading
Trading Plans for FRI. 09/29 - Rebounding to Key Level?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/29 Since our published trading plans last week pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4340 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. This morning, the index is attempting to test the 4340 level. If the daily close is going to be above 4340, then our models will negate the bearish bias and initiate a mildly bullish bias for Monday. The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. But, the near term bias will be determined by today's daily close as specified above. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4330, 4321, 4303, 4296, or 4276 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4327, 4316, 4292, or 4273 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4300, and explicit short exits on a break above 4286. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
SP500 Is At First Major SupportSP500 is at first major support based on several evidences from technical point of view and from Elliott wave perspective. SP500 is making nice and clean A-B-C correction as we have been warning about in past updates. Below are some of the important key points for a potential bounce on stocks in next few weeks. End of Q3 Normally end of the quarter are important flows, because the portfolio adjustments, so ti can impact the trends, and causes a change in cycles Seasonal Chart Of SP500 Is Bullish For Octobe Historically speaking, September is not good month for stocks, but October is. So, can we see a bounce on stocks? Trendline Support As long as trendline holds, trend is up! June GAP Fill. When gap is filled, flows will change because some unfilled orders got exacetued int hat price, so the market can change a direction after fill. A-B-C correction Thats a bullish pattern, because it represents a correction within uptrend. Its a pause that can send price higher PUT/CALL Put call ratio represents a sentiment; if a lot of puts are being bought then investors are affradi of falling prices, so they want to hedge their portfolio. But if puts are moving into extremes, like over-corded reaction, then be aware of the opposite, because market moves in cylces.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by ew-forecast
2
Up early Friday, well off highs at endNow that Minor wave 3 has likely ended (62 hours later), the index is well into Minor wave 4 up. We could even be nearing the end of Minute wave A. Historical data indicates Minor wave 4 could last 21-36 hours with a final top around 4350-4387. It is possible the index is already in Minuette wave 5 of Minute wave A inside of this Minor wave 4. Looks like Minuette wave 5 will last about 4 hours max and the first hour has already ended with Thursday's close. Strong model agreement of the top around 4340-4348 within the first few hours of trading on Friday. This could be achieved with a probable gap up to open, but all gains will likely be given back over the rest of the day and early hours on Monday. The final top for Minor 4 will likely be achieved next week. More analysis, data, and levels will be available by the weekend once Minute wave A has truly ended. More great insight and datastreams to come.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
2
Trading Plans for THU. 09/28 - Falling Knife Hit the Floor, Yet?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/28 Since our published trading plans last week pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4340 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. Until the 4300 handle is regained, there is no indication of any let up in the downside pressure. If the downward pressure continues, our models indicate 4200-4210 area as the near-term support. The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4303, 4291, 4252, or 4238 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4287, 4247, or 4234 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4300 or 4266, and explicit short exits on a break above 4270. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
If the S&P500 is to bounce, surely it should be today?We all know that global indices have been under pressure whilst the US dollar and bond yields scream higher. But with the S&P 500 respecting key levels of support and forming a bullish hammer on Wednesday, perhaps it is time for at least a sympathy bounce? Furthermore, the hammer low perfectly respected trend support and closed above the 200-day EMA, with a bullish RSI (2) that curled higher from oversold and the RSI (14) is itself nearing oversold. We're not looking for a strong risk-on rally, but a small bounce (perhaps towards the August lows of 4400 gap resistance level) may not be such a crazy idea. At which point we could seek evidence of a swing high and a potential break of trend support. Naturally, an immediate break of yesterday's low would also invalidate trend support and likely signal its next let lower.
TVC:SPXLong
by CityIndex
SPY close analysis 9/26/2023Unfortunately, yesterday led to continued downside. Oscillator is crossing back down and threatening its headed into oversold territory. We now have multiple gaps above acting as resistance. I think we'll see a "breakdown zone" retest (430-436) but at this point the 200 day EMA and the old draw on liquidity is closer and thus much more likely to happen first. In short: Rallies are to be faded Approach pumps as scalps (day trade only Bulls need a gap up or some other supportive action in order to have a sign of strength
AMEX:SPYShort
by upslidedown
1
Trading Plans for WED. 09/27 - Falling Knife...Where's the FloorS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/27 Since our published trading plans last week pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4340 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. Until the 4300 handle is regained, there is no indication of any let up in the downside pressure. If the downward pressure continues, our models indicate 4200-4210 area as the near-term support. The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4313, 4304, 4287, 4269, or 4240 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4283, 4265, 4254, or 4238 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4310 or 4301, and explicit short exits on a break above 4257. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:16am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Weekly Update: Why is the Street Asleep at the Wheel?Post 2009 Financial Crisis, they made movies about the housing and economic downturn. Here’s the thing, there are over 10M financial advisors, money managers, hedge fund managers, and fundamental and technical analysts in the industry. This doesn’t include the geniuses in the Financial News business. However, why did only a hand full of that total population (less than a dozen) see the SPX dropping 60% from 1587 to 666 in a matter of 5 months? Did you watch the movies? Because the reason was on average, housing has always been a 3-5% asset yielding per year over the long term. There was no way the housing market was going to crash. 10M smart people and only a dozen got it right? What does that say about the other 9.999M smart people in the industry? No, I’m not writing about how I am smarter than 10M professionals in the industry, but you have to admit, by and large, EVERYONE IN THE INDUSTRY got it wrong. It's easy to manage money when the market just goes up for 100 years...what about when that is no longer the case. During the very long cycle paradigm shifts, the old norms no longer apply. In my opinion, they’re cranking up the ignorant train once again. I’ll attempt to over simply this. INTEREST RATE REVERSION TO THE MEAN Most market participants are not used to interest rates at 10%...I on the other hand, used to think 10% was competitive. But long-term cycles being what they're are, their purpose is to clean the slate, re-educate participants, get rid of the old and welcome the new, all while reverting back to an equilibrium or a cycle norm. I'm curious when the street will stop discussing soft landing, no landing, higher for longer, etc. Start concerning themselves with how our economy looks and functions next year, the year after that, and 5 years from now in a long-term rising interest rate environment. I have a feeling the 10M in the financial services industry will shrink, and those smart people, will have get a lot smarter to survive.
SP:SPXShort
by maikisch
SPY close analysis 9/25/2023Rate news last week really destroyed this index. SPY has a lot of work to do in order to go higher. For the time being I remain cautiously optimistic and think we pause and seek higher liquidity. Oscillator looks to be bottoming but there's no strong confluence of support in this 430 zone. The "strong support" zone is going to be around 422 where the 200 day ema rests as well. Caution advised here because overall market structure has turned bearish. Seems likely that any rally that fills gaps is a high opportunity short trade.
AMEX:SPY
by upslidedown
Trading Plans for MON. 09/25 - Market Bull Exhausted?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 09/25 As our daily trading plans reinforced before the FOMC meeting stated: "...any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell which way this could go until after the FOMC meeting". The unexpectedly hawkish Fed stance drove the markets down and continuing to push it lower. Our published trading plans on Friday, 09/15 stated: "Models continue to indicate that the index has to close above 4507 on a daily close basis to flip to a bullish bias. Between 4460 and 4507, models indicate an indeterminate bias". This week's 4505 level could be the top for the near term. A daily close above 4404 is needed for our models to turn bullish again. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4354, 4332, 4324, 4315, or 4304 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4350, 4329, 4321, or 4302 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4313. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #FOMC
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
SP500 Futures new Supply Zone (?)Hello trading community! The ES Futures seems to be Bearish, and we can watch in this chart 3 Higher Lows created. A strong support that was tested three times has already been crossed and tested to create a new possible resistance. The Dollar continue to show strength, the DXY is again testing the resistance, and we believe this time will be a strong long signal. Also, after analyzing the SPX timeframe 4Hours, is possible to observe the Supply area that has already been tested and originated the three HL. SPX is entering in an area that was resistance some months ago. To conclude, we believe ES Futures contracts will test again the area of the new resistance 4401.25, and will change the direction to a short position
CME_MINI:ESZ2023Short
by AFCapital21