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Generally Up Until TuesdayWith Intermediate wave 1 likely in the books, I have projected the top for Intermediate wave 2. It won't be as high as originally thought. Minor wave A could end tomorrow or Friday and wave B could end Friday or Monday. The end looks like maybe Tuesday based on historical data. Intermediate wave 1 ended about an hour late today but the market roared after the bottom per analysis: The move up this afternoon almost ran the whole length of Minor wave A's expectation so a cool off today may continue to provide room for gains tomorrow. The inflation read still appears to be a catalyst for gains, but maybe 20-30 points early on Thursday is not a significant jump or confidence in the reported numbers which the pundits may add the context of fuel prices having gone up after the end of July. This realization should led the market down into Minor wave B temporarily and then some sort of short rally should occur Monday/Tuesday. The next drop should be another 150-300 pointer. The projected bottom for this first Primary wave 1 down right now is early October, however, based on the ending point of Intermediate wave 1, it is possible the bottom is October remains above 4050 AND the final market low toward the end of 2024 could remain above 3100 based on the analysis here:
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Markets Searching for a Direction - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/09 With the Fed and Interest Rates not burning issues anymore (at least for now), with major earnings mostly in the rear view mirror, markets are struggling to find a direction and a relevant factor to latch onto. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to listless markets. Our models continue to indicate choppy markets until this resolves in either direction. The level of 4480-4490 is now the main support level, with 4500 the immediate key level for both Support and Resistance. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate the same trading plans as yesterday: i.e., going long on a break above 4486, 4491, 4502, 4507 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4475, 4483, or 4497  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4505, and explicit short exits on a break above 4465. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: For today, positional models indicate staying flat. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #debtdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usdebtdowngrade, #usdebtrating
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Start Low, Run High On WednesdayLooks like the bottom is on track for early tomorrow Minute wave 5 should end tomorrow morning simultaneously ending Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave C. Minute wave 1 was only 3 hours long, and Minute wave 3 was only 2 hours long. This would mean Minute wave 5 should be 2 hours or less in duration. The quickest way to the bottom in only 2 hours is another gap down at the open. Right now, the models are not projecting a drastic bottom and they pretty much align with the initial projection for Minor wave 5 the other day which can be seen here where strongest model agreement had Minor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading tomorrow: The originally forecast bottoms for Minor wave 5 are in the center of the chart above and the newest levels projecting the end of Minute wave 5 are toward the left. The light blue levels for each are based on the most specific dataset relationally consistent with the current wave. The yellow levels are slightly less specific and the white levels are the broader of the datasets. The pink levels (only one is visible and it is on the left at a 98.88% retracement) are specific to waves which are Minute wave 5 in Minor wave 5, in Intermediate wave 1, inside Primary wave 1. This particular level indicates there have been occasions where wave 5 ends prior to go beneath wave 3’s bottom which is a significant possibility here. The models strongly favor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading but should only last 2 hours at most. My forecast would be a gap down to open with the bottom between 4450-4462. Intermediate wave 2 should begin after this point and lead the market upward for the rest of the day. I will crunch the data tomorrow once Intermediate wave 1 is confirmed to have ended, but Intermediate wave 2 will now retrace the drop performed by Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 levels are temporarily plotted and could see the market reach a peak between 4530-4560 by sometime early to the middle of next week. Intermediate wave 2 does not require a large boost and if it really takes 4-6 days to climb less than 100 points it could mean minimal gains over the coming days. The inflation report could also cause a large gain at first which would be wave A up inside of Intermediate 2. The reality of the data being delayed and folks considering the rising fuel costs could bring the market down again in the wave B down portion of Intermediate wave 2 and the final wave C leg up could get us to the target top. The CPI number on Thursday will likely assist in boosting the market up, however, the inflation data is for July and fuel prices have gone up significantly since the end of July which is not likely factored into the CPI number or the prices of goods moving forward. I figure the rising fuel costs alone will add to the downfall that is in the making again. The rise in the price of goods likely will not hit the inflation numbers for at least another month.
CBOE:SPX
by StockSignaler
3
Start Low, Run High On WednesdayLooks like the bottom is on track for early tomorrow Minute wave 5 should end tomorrow morning simultaneously ending Minor wave 5 and Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave C. Minute wave 1 was only 3 hours long, and Minute wave 3 was only 2 hours long. This would mean Minute wave 5 should be 2 hours or less in duration. The quickest way to the bottom in only 2 hours is another gap down at the open. Right now, the models are not projecting a drastic bottom and they pretty much align with the initial projection for Minor wave 5 the other day which can be seen here where strongest model agreement had Minor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading tomorrow: The originally forecast bottoms for Minor wave 5 are in the center of the chart above and the newest levels projecting the end of Minute wave 5 are toward the left. The light blue levels for each are based on the most specific dataset relationally consistent with the current wave. The yellow levels are slightly less specific and the white levels are the broader of the datasets. The pink levels (only one is visible and it is on the left at a 98.88% retracement) are specific to waves which are Minute wave 5 in Minor wave 5, in Intermediate wave 1, inside Primary wave 1. This particular level indicates there have been occasions where wave 5 ends prior to go beneath wave 3’s bottom which is a significant possibility here. The models strongly favor wave 5 ending within the first hour of trading but should only last 2 hours at most. My forecast would be a gap down to open with the bottom between 4450-4462. Intermediate wave 2 should begin after this point and lead the market upward for the rest of the day. I will crunch the data tomorrow once Intermediate wave 1 is confirmed to have ended, but Intermediate wave 2 will now retrace the drop performed by Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 levels are temporarily plotted and could see the market reach a peak between 4530-4560 by sometime early to the middle of next week. Intermediate wave 2 does not require a large boost and if it really takes 4-6 days to climb less than 100 points it could mean minimal gains over the coming days. The inflation report could also cause a large gain at first which would be wave A up inside of Intermediate 2. The reality of the data being delayed and folks considering the rising fuel costs could bring the market down again in the wave B down portion of Intermediate wave 2 and the final wave C leg up could get us to the target top. The CPI number on Thursday will likely assist in boosting the market up, however, the inflation data is for July and fuel prices have gone up significantly since the end of July which is not likely factored into the CPI number or the prices of goods moving forward. I figure the rising fuel costs alone will add to the downfall that is in the making again. The rise in the price of goods likely will not hit the inflation numbers for at least another month.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Weekly Update: Are we Headed for Bad Times?I have been on Trading View for almost a year now. In that timeframe I have been fortunate enough to have almost 2,600 people who follow my work, shared almost 700 ideas within that community, and founded my website for paying members. Yesterday, we held a training / education Zoom call and dissected the move up off the October low of 3502. The purpose of this call was to strictly adhere to EWT rules & guidelines as we went through the chart literally day by day. The quick version of the outcome of that call was we have topped in the primary B countertrend rally. This conclusion was reached largely because of 2 major areas of focus from the October 2022 lows. The initial pattern, and the final impulsive portion of the pattern from March until the recent highs. Now I know most people may find this hard to accept. I fully expect the comments section to be lively but the notion of the initial portion of the pattern started off as a leading diagonal, is just plain wrong . Please allow me to explain. In preparation for this training, I spent time putting together my deck of slides, with an agenda to refer back to the live chart. As I went through the pattern and spotted what some Elliottitions would consider a leading diagonal off the 3502 bottom, I decided to spend some time researching Leading Diagonals. The reason being the theme of the call was the proper application of EWT rules and guidelines. So I wanted to be sure I was not assuming when I applied rules associated with ending diagonals to leading diagonals. What I found was eye-opening to me because I never questioned what LD’s were. Like some, I have always applied diagonals (ending or leading) as 3,3,3,3,3’s. For the Elliott Wave uninitiated this would be a series of abc’s but labeled as 1,2,3,4 and 5 with the 4 overlapping the 1. NOT SO FAST! My research turned up that although Ending Diagonals are a legitimate Elliott Wave pattern with governing rules, the larger EWT community is not 100% agreed on Leading Diagonals. Here’s an excerpt from AJ Frosts and Robert Prechter’s book, “Elliott Wave Principle”. Leading Diagonal It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: 3-3-3-3-3, but the jury is out on a strict definition, as 5,3,5,3,5 that overlap are also accepted. These patterns were not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but have appeared enough times and over a long enough period that the authors are convinced of their validity. The notion of an LD is a relatively new idea that, in truth is accepted among many Elliottitions, but not all due a lack of governing rules. Well, I now have a quandary with respect to my upcoming zoom call with my membership. The entire basis of the call is the proper application of EWT Rules and or Guidelines. If there are no agreed upon rules, let alone guidelines, what do I do when the call begins and we start to examine the initial pattern off the 3502 bottom? I had already announced and scheduled the call. I decided to apply both loosely mentioned counts to this pattern (3,3,3,3,3 and 5,3,5,3,5) …and guess what? None of them apply. Not even close. You can go through the pattern yourself and what anyone is going to come away with when analyzing the initial pattern from 3502 on October 13, 2022 to the high of 4180 on December 22, 2022 is a an abc. If you have any doubts here’s the pattern zoomed in. So, based on the initial pattern being an abc...this entire move from start to finish was going to be corrective, or a countertrend advance. Trend being down. The last portion of the pattern that is impulsive starting in March 13th, 2023 until July 27th, 2023 should be labeled as following: C waves will normally terminate at the 1.618% fib extension....in which price did. Therefore, I firmly believe we have topped based on the fact that the leading diagonal may not even be a legitimate Elliott Wave pattern at worst, and at best, if it exists, has loosely based governing rules or guidelines. Lastly the impulsive portion of the pattern from March to July terminated at 1.618% of the initial pattern. I think it's a VERY VERY high probability we topped in July....and more importantly...should lead to a decline that could signify bad times ahead. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
Markets Struggling to Find a DirectionS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/08 With the Fed and Interest Rates not a burning issue anymore, with major earnings mostly in the rear view mirror, markets are struggling to find a direction and a relevant factor to latch onto. Currently, there doesn't appear to be any specific factor driving the markets in any direction, leading to listless markets. Our models indicate sideways markets until this resolves in either direction. The level of 4545-4550 is now the main resistance level, with 4500 the immediate support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4486, 4491, 4502, 4507 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4475, 4483, or 4497  with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4505, and explicit short exits on a break above 4465. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: For today, positional models indicate staying flat. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #debtdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usdebtdowngrade, #usdebtrating
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX: reversal might continueS&P 500 entered into a short correction during the previous week. The market reacted to the news that Fitch rating agency downgraded the US long-term government debt to AA+. As economists are noting, this would have an impact on higher borrowing costs for US companies, as borrowers now need to calculate with higher risk of doing business with US clients. Certainly it will have some implications to the US economy, but some analysts say that it will actually help Fed Chair Powell to finally slow down the US economy in Fed`s fight with inflation. For the US equities this was the worst weekly trading session since March. S&P 500 was down by 2.3% ending the week at level of 4.478. Whether this is a start of a rally, remains unclear as investors are currently divided on this topic. Earnings report pushed Amazon shares 8.3% higher, while Booking Holdings gained 7.9% on better than expected quarterly results. Still, investors continue to be concerned about a potential reversal of inflation, considering that average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month, and higher from market expectations. During the week S&P 500 exited from the overbought side and started a short reversal. RSI reached level of 48, indicating a potential for a further move toward the downside. Lowest weekly level was 4.473, but the peak from June at 4.400 has not been tested. This might be the next target of the index for the week ahead, with some probability that 4.000 might also be reached. A move toward the higher grounds seems unlikely based on current charts and technical analysis.
CBOE:SPX
by XBTFX
Rocky week down, up next weekThe chart holds the expected movement for the beginning of the week if we are in the final wave down of Intermediate wave 1. Minor wave 4 moved nearly on target with a reversal at the maximum historically observed reversal point and ran one hour beyond the models, however it fell drastically as expected. That idea can be viewed here: I initially believed the end of Intermediate wave 1 could have been completed on Friday with the rate of the drop. However, the historical data is pointing to a new low still to come. The models right now are pointing to the bottom as late as Friday, but most models are pointing to Wednesday. The levels are outlined on the chart above. The most specific historical wave sets are the light blue levels based on waves ending in C115. and most likely contain the bottom’s location. The next set of data is based on slightly broader historical waves ending in 115 and are yellow. The broadest data levels are the white lines. The markets could drop a little further to open on Monday are begin moving upward right away which would likely plant Minute wave 1 as the low from late Friday. Regardless, the index will likely move up to or toward a high on Monday to complete Minute wave 2. Minute wave 3 down could begin later on Monday and lead to a 50-point loss bottoming out on Tuesday. Minute wave 4 will likely be a quick jog (1-3 hours) upward late on Tuesday or even ending early Wednesday and the final bottom could occur on Wednesday. The end Minute wave 5/Minor wave 5/Intermediate wave 1 will likely be between 4420-4450. My expectations are in the 4430-4400 area. After Intermediate wave 1 is completed. The market should move up for at least 3-6 days putting a top somewhere into next week (August 14-17) but further analysis will follow.
CBOE:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Rocky week down, up next weekThe chart holds the expected movement for the beginning of the week if we are in the final wave down of Intermediate wave 1. Minor wave 4 moved nearly on target with a reversal at the maximum historically observed reversal point and ran one hour beyond the models, however it fell drastically as expected. That idea can be viewed here: I initially believed the end of Intermediate wave 1 could have been completed on Friday with the rate of the drop. However, the historical data is pointing to a new low still to come. The models right now are pointing to the bottom as late as Friday, but most models are pointing to Wednesday. The levels are outlined on the chart above. The most specific historical wave sets are the light blue levels based on waves ending in C115. and most likely contain the bottom’s location. The next set of data is based on slightly broader historical waves ending in 115 and are yellow. The broadest data levels are the white lines. The markets could drop a little further to open on Monday are begin moving upward right away which would likely plant Minute wave 1 as the low from late Friday. Regardless, the index will likely move up to or toward a high on Monday to complete Minute wave 2. Minute wave 3 down could begin later on Monday and lead to a 50-point loss bottoming out on Tuesday. Minute wave 4 will likely be a quick jog (1-3 hours) upward late on Tuesday or even ending early Wednesday and the final bottom could occur on Wednesday. The end Minute wave 5/Minor wave 5/Intermediate wave 1 will likely be between 4420-4450. My expectations are in the 4430-4400 area. After Intermediate wave 1 is completed. The market should move up for at least 3-6 days putting a top somewhere into next week (August 14-17) but further analysis will follow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500 I NOTICED A GOOD SELL AREAOn S&P500, we have a bullish setup with the price slightly retracing in the area around 4479 after touching highs at level 4645. Currently, there is an excellent reversal zone, a sell zone, at level 4525, where the price in H1 formed a strong supply level that had a significant impact on the price in the past week. In short, I'm waiting for a retracement to that level before entering a short position, aiming for a target around 4375, which corresponds to the previous major low. Let me know what you think. Have a great weekend! Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
TSLATitle: Bullish Momentum on Tesla Shares Backed by Smart Money Analysis Description: In this Trading View idea, we delve into the analysis of Tesla shares and their recent price movement, utilizing the Smart Money concept to provide insights into the bullish momentum observed in the market. Smart Money Concept: The Smart Money concept involves analyzing the activities of institutional investors, hedge funds, and other large players in the market. These entities often have access to more comprehensive information and resources than individual retail traders, making their actions and positions crucial indicators of market sentiment. Bullish Signals: Our analysis reveals several compelling bullish signals for Tesla shares: Considerations: While the Smart Money concept and other indicators suggest a bullish stance, it's important to remain vigilant and consider potential risks. Conclusion: Incorporating Smart Money analysis into our assessment of Tesla shares reveals a compelling case for a bullish outlook. However, traders should exercise caution, conduct their own research, and manage risk effectively before making investment decisions. As always, market conditions can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay informed and adaptable.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Asif_Brain_Waves
Trading Plans for FRI. 08/04 - The Precarious Rally Continues...S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 08/04 As we published in our earlier trading plans: "The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes". As we published in the wake of the US debt downgrade: "There is a potential for sudden spikes up to squeeze the shorts in the near term. Might be risky to stay short while the index is above 4500", the 4500 support level has held and the index survived any potential downfall from the US debt downgrade. At least, for now. The level of 4545-4550 is now the main resistance level, with 4500 the immediate support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4550, 4532, 4520, 4506, or 4491 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4545, 4528, 4516, 4502, or 4487 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4537, and explicit short exits on a break above 4537 (same level). Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:01pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Our positional models carried a short overnight, with an entry of 4509.90 and a short exit at 4516 (or, the equivalent in ES futures after hours). The short exit level was hit overnight closing the short at a deemed level of 4516 for a loss of 6.10 index points. For today, positional models indicate staying flat. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #debtdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usdebtdowngrade, #usdebtrating
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Early High on Friday Followed By New Weekly Low Tomorrow?If we are in Intermediate wave 1 down, we are likely near the end of Minor wave 4 up. Here is confirmation of wave 3 of 3 with the pink bars aligning in the bottom indicator at Minute wave 3 (green) inside of Minor wave 3 (yellow): There is a chance Minor wave 4 up has finished and was only 2 hours long. While the other likely option and one pursued in this chart is that Minute wave B has likely finished or could finish near the open. If Minute wave B ended with the low from August 3rd, then wave C will likely conclude within the first 3 hours of trading on August 4th. Strongest model agreement has wave 4 lasting 6 hours which would mean the top occurs within the first hour of trading. Secondary and tertiary models point to a likely maximum length of 8 hours (the third hour of trading on August 4th). The possible reversal levels are based on the following datasets in order from most specific to current wave location to more broad datasets. Light Blue levels are possible locations of market top tomorrow Yellow is slightly less specific than light blue White is most broad dataset The muted pink color represents specific data for Minute wave 4s in Minor wave 1s in Intermediate wave 1s. Basically the high tomorrow will occur within the first or second hour of trading and not go above 4550. Most conservative zone for the top is between 4524-4536. If the high from August 3rd is not surpassed on August 4th, the market will likely head down (and is already) into the final wave 5 of Intermediate wave 1. Initial loose projection is for this near-term market bottom to occur next week. Once confirmation of Minor wave 4's endpoint is recorded, Minor wave 5 will be projected.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
6
The Precarious Rally Might be Stalling? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 08/03 As we published in our earlier trading plans: "The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes". Earnings notwithstanding, the U.S. downgrade by the ratings agencies could have the potential to stall the bull. But, the bears should be cautious about jumping the gun, yet. There is a potential for sudden spikes up to squeeze the shorts in the near term. Might be risky to stay short while the index is above 4500. The level of 4545-4550 is now the main resistance level, with 4500 the immediate support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4550, 4520, 4506, or 4491 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4545, 4527, 4516, 4502, or 4487 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4537, and explicit short exits on a break above 4537 (same level). Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:16pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Following our published trading plans yesterday, our positional models went short on a break below 4515 (at 3:09pm, at a short entry of 4514.93) with a 16-point trailing stop and carried the short overnight with the 16-point trailing stop effective (see the overnight exposure explanation below for positional trading plans). The short made a low at 3:55am, survived the stop till 5:10am (based on the price action in the futures markets) where it was hit, closing the position at 4526.25, for a loss of 11.32 index points. For today, positional models indicate going short on a break below 4520 or 4510, with a hard stop at 4527 and an explicit short exit on a break above 4516. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usdebt, #debtdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usdebtdowngrade, #usdebtrating
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
If the top is in, we find the bottomStill awaiting additional price confirmation we are in Cycle wave C downward, but here is the current forecast if the current market top holds. My hourly program generated the usual waypoints based on historical data. Interestingly enough, Cycle wave A (the downward period between January – October 2022 was 1365 trading hours. Not to be outdone, Cycle wave B upward (October 2022 to July 2023) was 1366 trading hours. A common ABC relationship at times is the length of A plus the length of B equaling the length of wave C. I have outlined the most common lengths the program agreed on regarding the length of cycle wave C and placed them vertically on the chart. Of course 2731 hours is one of those values which could place the possible bottom as late as February 2025. The market bottoms based on most specific dataset to the current wave structure are the light blue levels, next slightly broader dataset produced the yellow levels, and the broadest dataset of waves ending in 2C are the white levels. Based on these potential lengths and overall movements, I determined where Primary wave 1 should bottom based on historical data and each yellow outlined boxed represents these factors. I generally do not trade too much during the first wave, but instead allow the first wave to finish and then begin buying and selling based on the finalized data and historical relationships for expected movement. If Cycle wave C is 910 trading hours long, then the smallest box would likely contain the location of Primary wave 1’s bottom. The left side of this rectangle is the minimum length of time based on historical Primary wave 1 data and therefore the timeframe that wave 1 would likely reach at a minimum. The right side of this rectangle represents the third quartile of historical movement and therefore a possible maximum timeframe for wave 1’s bottom to occur. The additional boxes do the same regarding left and right bounds and all boxes correlate with the next duration in order (i.e. if the overall length is 1366 hours, the bottom should occur between the left and right bounds of the next largest rectangle). Rectangles were created for 910, 1366, 1821, 2047, 2731, and 3415 trading hours. The top and bottoms of the box relate to the potential market bottoms for the bear market. The top of the smallest box relates to the minimum historical movement if the market bottom is at 3328.09. The bottom of this same box relates to the third quartile of historical data for 3328.09. If the bottom ends between the top and bottom of this box, the market bottom could be around 3328.09. The tops and bottoms of the next box are related to an overall market bottom around 3271.95. Rectangles were created for market bottoms of 3328.09, 3271.95, 3183.44, 2972.71, 2878.89, and 2733.44. What does all this mean? Once Primary wave 1 ends, the bottom should fall in one of these boxes. We could use the endpoint to potentially rule out what the duration and bottoms WILL NOT be for this bear market. If the bottom of Primary wave 1 falls in the small rectangle which overlaps all rectangles, nothing can be ruled out yet. Additionally, the bottom of Primary wave 1 should get below 4300 at the very least, considering the market is above 4500 today, we are looking for at least a 200 point drop over the next few weeks. My initial projection for the market bottom from last July was around 2400 by March 2025. Based on all the completed data to this point, I am looking for a bottom sooner and likely in the middle of the fall of 2024. The bottom should not be as deep as originally forecasted either, and my initial call is likely no lower than 2700, but likely below 2900. So far it looks like the country’s credit rating was the first of many dominos to fall over the next year as the market moves lower. I still think a China v. Taiwan situation could do the most damage, but we shall see what happens. Oil prices have been creeping up as well over the past month and the inflated costs of goods have not begun to take form yet. Companies will be refinancing their debts at higher and higher levels moving forward and nowhere near enough companies have failed yet. Big ones will fall, and best guess as at least 4 big names go down before the market is done moving down.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
The Precarious Rally Might be Stalling? Day 1S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 08/02 As we published in our earlier trading plans: "The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes". Earnings notwithstanding, the U.S. downgrade by the ratings agencies could have the potential to stall the bull. But, the bears should be cautious about jumping the gun, yet. There is a potential for sudden spikes up to squeeze the shorts in the near term. Might be risky to stay short while the index is above 4500. The previously stated level of 4575-4580 is now the main resistance level, with 4500 the immediate support. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4550, 4520, 4506, or 4491 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4545, 4527, 4516, 4502, or 4487 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits, and explicit short exits on a break above 4530 or 4537. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:16am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4515 with a 16-point trailing stop. If models open a short and survive into the close, models indicate continuing the trailing stop which will be effective overnight (see the overnight exposure explanation below for positional trading plans). By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #usrating, #ratingdowngrade, #usdowngrade, #usratingdowngrade
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Trading Plans for MON. 07/31: Will The Precarious Rally ContinueS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 08/01 The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes. Earnings this week should shed some more light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. If they continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top. The previously stated level of 4575-4580 is now the key support/resistance level, with the 4603-4610 range the next resistance level. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4583, 4561, or 4537 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4575, 4557, or 4527 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4568, 4548, or 4532, and explicit short exits on a break above 4532, 4552, or 4568. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:11am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Our positional models continue to indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Will This Precarious Rally Continue? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 07/31 The question on everybody's mind - whether they are a bull or a bear or a bystander - is: "How long can this rally continue?". And, nobody knows - or, can know - the answer, of course. But, as long as there are doubters, the rally will still have some steam left in it - mostly feeding on short squeezes. Earnings this week should shed some more light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. If they continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top. The previously stated level of 4575-4580 is now the key support/resistance level, with the 4603-4610 range the next resistance level. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4592 or 4583 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4579, 4570, or 4562 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4589 or 4585, and explicit short exits on a break above 4565 or 4574. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:31pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. Positional Trading Plans: Our positional models continue to indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
1
SPX Index (US SP500). Important dates.Time frame 1 day. Logarithm. Secondary trend. Expanding triangle. Reversal zone. Key levels are shown. Dates marked the key time zones of potential events that can greatly affect the markets and the index of the American economy in the first place. The end of October and the beginning of November will most likely be unnecessarily wavy in the markets. If so, don't miss your chance to “accidentally get rich”. This is how it looks on a line chart.
VANTAGE:SP500
by SpartaBTC
38