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Updated Market Top Based On Upward MovementNow that we have returned to Primary wave C in Cycle wave B up, the new forecasted top is contained herein. This will likely extend the final drop into later 2024 than initially proposed in the last analysis since Cycle wave B will likely last an additional month and go higher. We are most likely in the final Intermediate wave 5 up, while it is slightly possible we are in the corrective Intermediate wave 4 down. Confirmation of wave 4 would be a low beneath 4360 before a high above 4480. If in Intermediate wave 5, Intermediate wave 3 was 30 trading days long, gaining 400.19 points and extending 177.36% of Intermediate wave 1’s movement. If Intermediate wave 4 completed, it was 5 trading days long and a loss of 120.39 points for a retracement of 30.08% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement. July 5 would be considered day 6 of Intermediate wave 5 however, the most recent market top was 2 trading days prior at 4458.48. For the market top forecast, Intermediate wave 5 could have the following statistics based on waves ending in 2BC5. Quartile extensions of Intermediate wave 3’s movement (light blue lines) are 121.05%, 153.2%, 186.17%. The models do not point to a specific length however there are windows of potential lengths. Windows are 6-8 days, 12-15 days, and 24-26 trading days long. Based on waves ending in BC5, quartile movements (yellow lines) are 122.06%, 137.71%, and 153.2%. This is interesting as the original median level is now the 3rd quartile movement level which indicates 153.2% may not be achieved. This would indicate the market top remains below 4660.26. The strongest model agreement for length of Intermediate wave 5 is at 8 and 10 days. Second most model agreement is at 4 or 25 trading days, while third agreement is 4, 12, 14, 18, and 20 trading days long. The broadest data set is for waves ending in C5. The quartile levels are (white line) 109.46%, 122.9%, and 151.06%. The models agree the most at a length of 5 or 12 days. Second most agreement at 6 or 10 days long, third at 20 days long, fourth at 9 days, fifth at 7 or 30 days, sixth at 14 days. I have also drawn a new trendline from the beginning of Primary wave C (the low on March 13, 2023) to the end of Intermediate wave 3 (the high on June 16) to act as the prior support line becoming the new resistance. I may use the intersection of this line with the levels mentioned above and the trading day lengths to identify potential reversal points. Additional considerations should be made in determining how far into Intermediate wave 5 are we if that is the correct wave structure. Intermediate wave 5 is composed of 5 Minor waves and each minor wave is composed of Minute waves. A 30 minute chart indicates my wave 3 indicator was signaled around the highs from June 30. This indicates that Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 1 was completed or Minor wave 3 was completed. Intermediate wave 5 is nearing completion if Minor wave 3 was already accomplished and the total top could be as soon as July 7th. If the market is still early in Minor wave 1 then the market top could be more than 10 trading days away. Potential intersection points for 8 days long (July 7th) are at a top of 4485.21 or 4531.60. Intersections for 10 days long (July 11) are the same levels as 8 days with a top falling just shy of 4600 (the original forecasted top from July 2022). 12 days would extend the top just above 4600, and 14 days places the top around the 4630 range. 20 days is the max on the model agreement and tops out around 4685-4690. Based on the levels, lines, days and consideration of intersections I don’t think the market top occurs after mid-week next week. Economic reports are this Thursday and Friday with the CPI reading next Wednesday. Although month over month inflation continues to increase in the U.S. the number has declined each month. A rise in this report and lower job losses this week could support a new Fed hike as early as then end of July. I would place the market top around July 11-12 around 4530. This would further support the theory Minor wave 3 has indeed completed and Minor wave 5 could have a drawn out 5 wave structure upward. Once again, we shall see if this is the top. I will provide updated downward targets next weekend once this forecasted movement completes. Feel free to follow for updates and future forecasts.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
This is actually getting insane.The chart above shows the 20-month EMA of the spread between the contract in front and the second contract in front for S&P 500 futures CME_MINI:ES1! It continues to explode, and this is a bad sign. Since S&P 500 futures pricing includes the risk-free interest rate, the spread between the two contracts gives insight into the market's expectations about future interest rates. To understand why the interest rate is used in the pricing of futures contracts, one has to understand futures contracts. Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price on a future date. The price of a futures contract is determined by a number of factors, including the current spot price of the underlying asset and the cost of carrying the asset to maturity. The interest rate is used in the pricing of futures contracts because it represents the cost of carrying the asset to maturity for the contract seller. Since the contract seller could otherwise hold their money in a risk-free Treasury bond rather than in the S&P 500, the risk-free rate is therefore the opportunity cost to the seller, for which they must be compensated. The risk-free rate is therefore used because it represents the minimum return that must be earned in order for a rational market participant to sell an S&P 500 futures contract. Since each S&P 500 futures contract must price in the interest rate, the spread between contracts that expire sequentially indicates the market's expectation of the future direction of the interest rate. In this regard, the difference between sequential futures contracts guides the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, specifically the Fed Funds Rate, as shown in the chart below. On the flip side, the yield curve inversion is steepening by the most in over 40 years. Shown below is the difference between the 10-year U.S. Treasury and the 2-year U.S. Treasury. The ratio of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill is even worse, as shown in the chart below. I adjusted the values by taking the square to account for periods when the 3-month Treasury bill yield went into the negative numbers What does all of this mean? It means that a U.S. recession is for sure coming, and it's likely to be stagflationary in nature. If you'd like to listen to my full thoughts, you can watch my video below. When will the recession begin? The below infographic, created by Fredric Parker, uses a probability distribution to infer that a U.S. recession is extremely likely to begin before the end of 2024. The New York Federal Reserve places the chance of a U.S. recession beginning by May 2024 at nearly 71%. This is their highest predicted chance of a recession in over 40 years -- even higher than the Dotcom Bust and the Great Recession. The amount of SP:SPX volatility that's going to occur when the yield curve attempts normalization is probably going to be off-the-charts . This is evidenced by the fact that S&P 500 volatility is sinking to cycle lows as bond volatility explodes at the highest rate of change on record. To read more about this, you can view the post below that I co-authored with @SquishTrade With that said, July tends to be bullish and markets tend to be irrational. So perhaps the bull run will continue... for now. Historically, the S&P 500 often rallies at the end of the tightening cycle, right as the market believes the rate hikes will come to an end, but before the market fully realizes the damage they've done. Meanwhile, this is all occurring while the yearly Stochastic RSI for the SP:SPX shows very strong downward momentum -- to a degree only seen during significant economic downturns. Once the recession begins, it may last a long time or it may come in the form of multiple recessions. Central banks will fight the fires with more money, worsening inflation and causing whipsaws in monetary policy. Worst of all... During periods of severe economic downturn, major political instability and geopolitical conflicts often occur. Central banks need scapegoats for their monetary policy failures. Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
CME_MINI:ES2!
by SpyMasterTrades
61
FOMC Meeting MinutesS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 07/05 Our trading plans published on Friday, 06/30 stated: "Cover any open shorts and avoid going short - next week's holiday-shortened week could add more spikes to the upside to hit any stops on the shorts". Unless something significantly changes in the FOMC meeting minutes due for release this afternoon, markets appear poised to consolidate and continue the gains to the upside. The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 is now the support level. Be very nimble if going short while above these levels. With a quarter-point rate hike later this month a given, the FOMC meetings might be becoming non-events unless today's FOMC minutes deliver a big surprise (which is very unlikely). Hence, last weeks' spike up has a potential to turn into the next leg of the bull. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans for today. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4440, 4429, 4400, or 4391 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4424, 4397, or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4437, and short exits on a break above 4391. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #pce, #softpce, #fomcminutes
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
SP500 is it not yet “bottomed”?! I don’t have answer! 23/Dec/22.SP500. is it bottomed or not yet bottomed? I don’t know. I only know where is my stop lost level..Asked And find answer from Mr. Market. They said treat trading like doing business = maybe in Money management might be correct but not all. E.g ..Don’t never ever try “ not compromised/manipulating” with your client / supplier as you did with Mr. Market. You always got to “succumb “cut Lost” /compromised” to Mr. Market as he is always “right”..So don’t think “ you are the boss” when you are dealing with Mr. Market...AND be honest with ourselves. no shortcut/ no hanky panky trying outsmart with your client/suppliers/ which is Mr. Market..
FX:SPX500
by SteveTan
S&P 500 Pushing to 6,000 after Wedge BreakFalling Wedge has formed with the S&P 500 since 1 July 2021. We then recently had a breakout above 3,991 which confirmed upside to come. With the strong Engulfing up candles, we can expect the price to soar in the next few weeks. That is if the trend does hold and doesn't cause a fakeout. Price>200 RSI>50 My first target is at 6,000. SMC Below the Falling Wedge, there is a clear sign of Sell Side Liquidity. This is where Smart Money buys into positions (and sweeps liquidity) from traders who are long (get stopped) and for short traders who enter into their trades. This causes the price to rocket up each time it touches this Order Block. Now we'll need a strong catalyst for upside to continue. I am rooting for this one...
SP:SPXLong
by Timonrosso
Soft PCE Adding to the Window Dressing Push UpS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/30 The choppy trading for the last week or so appears now resolved to the upside with the soft PCE numbers released this morning. This appears fueling the typical quarter-end window dressing by funds, resulting in the path of least resistance being to the upside. Cover any open shorts and avoid going short - next week's holiday-shortened week could add more spikes to the upside to hit any stops on the shorts. The previously stated resistance level of 4400-4410 is now the support level. Do not be short while above these levels. With a quarter-point rate hike next week a given, the FOMC meeting next week might become a non-event unless Powell delivers a shocking surprise (which is very unlikely). Hence, this spike up has a potential to turn into the next leg of the bull. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models' were short at 4350 with a stop at 4416, which was hit this morning for a loss of 66 points. Models are now flat and indicate remaining flat into the weekend. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4442, 4423, 4400, or 4391 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4437 or 4388 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4418 or 4396. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #pce, #softpce
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
S&P500 vs Yield Curve vs FedFunds vs Unemployment📢 Yield curve inversion alert! Here's what you need to know: 📉 The 10-year minus 2-year yield curve has inverted 📉 This occurrence, where the shorter-term yields surpass longer-term yields, often raises concerns about the economy's health. Historically, such inversions have been associated with impending economic downturns. The inversion of the yield curve is a signal that investors are expecting short-term interest rates to rise above long-term interest rates in the future. This can happen when investors are worried about the economy and are demanding higher yields on long-term bonds to compensate for the risk of a recession. The inversion of the yield curve has been followed by a decline in the S&P 500 stock index in the past. On average, the S&P 500 has fallen by 10% within a year of a yield curve inversion. However, it is important to note that the yield curve inversion is not a perfect predictor of recessions. There have been times when the yield curve has inverted, and a recession has not followed. 🔍 Let's compare past inversions: 1️⃣ 2000 .com bust: The yield curve inversion preceded the dot-com bubble burst, signaling an economic recession. The S&P 500 experienced a significant decline, eroding investor wealth. 2️⃣ 2008 financial crisis: Another yield curve inversion preceded the global financial crisis and housing market collapse. The S&P 500 plummeted, leading to a severe recession and widespread financial turmoil. 📊 How does the yield curve inversion relate to the S&P 500? In the past, yield curve inversions have often been followed by stock market declines. While it doesn't guarantee an immediate crash, it serves as a warning sign for investors and may impact market sentiment and investment strategies. 💰 Relationship to the federal funds rate and unemployment rate: A yield curve inversion can influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates. In response to an inversion, the Fed may reduce rates to stimulate the economy and prevent a recession. The Federal Reserve is closely watching the yield curve inversion and has signaled that it is committed to raising interest rates in order to combat inflation. However, the Fed may be more cautious about raising rates if the yield curve continues to invert. Additionally, unemployment rates tend to rise during economic downturns associated with yield curve inversions. The unemployment rate is an important indicator to watch. A rising unemployment rate can be a sign that the economy is slowing down. However, the unemployment rate is currently at a low level, which may give the Fed more confidence to raise interest rates. 🔮 Projections for the current yield curve inversion: While it's challenging to predict exact outcomes, historical patterns suggest caution. The current inversion may signal a potential slowdown or economic headwinds. The stock market could face increased volatility, and the Fed may consider adjusting interest rates accordingly. Monitoring unemployment rates becomes crucial as they may rise if economic conditions deteriorate. Overall, the yield curve inversion is a sign that investors are worried about the economy. However, it is too early to say whether a recession is imminent. Investors should continue to monitor the yield curve and other economic indicators for signs of a slowdown. ⚠️ Stay informed, diversify investments, and consult financial professionals for personalized advice during uncertain times.
SP:SPX
by PrepForProfit
Time To Drop After Tuesday's Nice Pop?Assuming we are early into the long trip downward would put us somewhere in the early stages of Cycle wave C down, Primary wave 1 down, Intermediate wave 2 up. This would have made Intermediate wave 1 down 5 trading days long with a 120.39 point drop. Based on waves ending in C12, Intermediate wave 2 will last 1 day. There are zero other possible lengths. The quartile movements (blue levels on left) are 27.99%, 50.12%, and 56.51%. Based on waves ending in 12, strongest model agreement for length remains at 1 trading day and second strongest by a lot is 2 trading days. Quartile retracement levels (yellow lines) are at 27.99%, 42.03%, and 66.20%. Tuesday was the first official trading day of Intermediate wave 2. This is quite possibly the only trading day of wave 2. IF wave 2 achieves a new high tomorrow, Thursday would likely not see a new high for a very long time until we drop well below 4328 again. IF a new high is achieved tomorrow it may remain at or under 4400. IF we break above 4400 tomorrow, we may still be BACK in Cycle wave B as was identified in my most recent Devil’s Advocate Analysis. IF back in, well still in B, the market is either in the final Intermediate wave 4 Minor wave B up or the early stages of Intermediate wave 5 which would likely lead to a final market top within 2 weeks. If no new high is achieved and the market falls (likely based on all the Bank of England/Central Bank/Federal Reserve panels in Portugal) the market is in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3 down. This scenario would have seen Intermediate wave 2 last a single day and retrace 46.8% of Intermediate wave 1’s movement. Based on waves ending in C13, the quartile movement extensions of wave 1’s movement (blue levels farther on right) are 135.64%, 140.60%, and 165.83%. Most model agree on a length of 4-6 days, with secondary agreement at 7, 8, or 10 trading days long. Based on waves ending in 13, the quartile movement extensions (yellow) are 137.30%, 162.265%, and 198.02%. Models have strongest agreement on length at 5 days long, second is 1 or 4 days, third most agreement is 3 days, fourth is 7 days, fifth is 6 days, sixth is 2 or 10 days. Based on these models, the initial forecast is a possible market low late next week after the American holiday possibly below 4279 and probably not below 4240. This would equate to a drop of around 120 points in about 6 trading days. This is pretty much the same thing accomplished by Intermediate wave 1. Let us see how this plays out beginning with movement tomorrow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500 hits target, Time for a correction?The S&P500 has hit our first target a couple of days ago. Now the price is at the lower level of the resistance zone. This could mean that a correction is due. I believe that the resistance will be either broken or held at the end of the week. In this case, the most likely scenario is that the resistance will hold, and that we'll see lower prices for the upcoming weeks. This post gets invalidated the moment the lower resistance level breaks.
SP:SPXShort
by FetchTeam
Markets Awaiting the PCE and FOMC – Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/28 Our models indicate choppy trading with no directional momentum until PCE release later this week. Depending on the number, it may bring inflation and interest rates back onto the market radar, with downside pressure added on the markets, which could crescendo into the FOMC meeting next week. In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates since then. The index slightly consolidated downwards from 4409.59 from the close on Thursday, 06/15 to the close of 4381.89 Thursday, 06/22.  Our models indicated 4315-4325 as the next support level, which was tested within next few days and the market rebounded from there. 4400-4410 is the resistance level, below which the bias is choppy at best. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models went short on the break below 4350 on Friday, with a hard stop at 4406. For today, models indicate carrying the short, with the hard stop updated to 4416 and a take-profit instituted at 4325. If the short is closed out through one of these exits, models indicate staying flat until indicated otherwise. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4380, 4373, 4363, or 4351 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4377, 4370, 4360, or 4348 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #speech
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
SP500 Bearish ScenarioThe #SP500 diverged 61% from the trend it had referenced since 1940. When we look at such divergences in history, we see that the index has returned to the reference trend. The beginning of this reversal is usually confirmed by a close below the SMA9 on the 3-month timeframe. This level is currently displayed as $4174. In a possible bear scenario, EMA60 or $2651 will guide us for the priority return level. Finally, EMA120, which is already at the same level as the reference trend level, will act as the last support. In addition, looking at the SP500 index in the daily time frame, the McClellan Oscillator, which has been working very successfully since 1900s, turned negative last week. However, another factor that can contribute to my analysis is that the monetary and fiscal policies made by HSBC today are not compatible with the bond and stock markets, and that the current recession will go further.
SP:SPX
by YavuzAkbay
TUE. 06/27 Markets Awaiting the PCE and FOMC - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/27 Our models indicate choppy trading with no directional momentum until PCE release later this week. Depending on the number, it may bring inflation and interest rates back onto the market radar, with downside pressure added on the markets, which could crescendo into the FOMC meeting next week. In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning. The index slightly consolidated downwards from 4409.59 from the close on Thursday, 06/15 to the close of 4381.89 Thursday, 06/22.  Our models indicate 4315-4325 as the next support level, which might be tested in the coming days. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models went short on the break below 4350 on Friday, with a hard stop at 4406. For today, models indicate a profit take on a break above 4324. If the short is closed, models indicate going short again on a break below 4320, with a trailing stop of 12 points. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4373, 4366, 4343, or 4324 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4370, 4360, 4339, or 4321 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4370, and explicit short exits on a break above 4363. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:45am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #speech
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Devil's Advocate Analysis of Prior AnalysisI mentioned an analysis would be published in the event the market has not topped. This analysis can be useful if the market abides by it we could return up, otherwise it can help confirm the market top did occur on June 16. If the top from June 16 was not the market top we are likely in Intermediate wave 4 and may have possibly finished the bottom with the low on June 23. Based on waves ending in 2BC4, the quartile levels for retracement (light blue lines) are 13.73%, 15.06%, and 74.64%. The duration for Intermediate wave 4 is either 2 or 12 trading days based on model agreement. Second most model agreement is at 15 and 20 days. Based on waves ending in BC4, quartile levels (yellow on chart above) are 23.9%, 46.49%, and 55.05%. Majority of models point to a duration of 2 trading days long, with second most at 3 trading days. Third model agreement is 12 days and fourth agreement is 7 days. The broadest dataset is models ending in C4 wherein the quartile levels are 27.2%, 42.48%, and 55.05%. Trading day duration have most models agreeing with 12 days. Then the models agree on duration in the following order: 5 days; 1 & 7 days; 2, 4, & 6 days; and 8 & 14 days. The original analysis when forecasting Intermediate wave 4 had the same levels for retracement while the lengths were shorter. The most accurate levels based on specific relational data has already been surpassed when the market dropped beyond 3 days and the lowest level was well below 4388.20 (15.06% retracement). It is still possible for Intermediate wave 4 to go below 4388.20 and beyond 3 trading days in length (4 days at the time of writing). My other indicators at the bottom of the chart indicate a near term bottom is not likely in which further indicates the market will still achieve a new low soon. A wave 3 signal did occur inline with the June 16 market top which could have indicated the end of Intermediate wave 3, however, it also signals the end of a 2, 4, or B wave. My initial analysis has this as the end of a macro wave B. My SAG Gauge indicates more down days are record to pull the market back from an overbought territory that always corrects. I still believe the market topped on June 16th and we will be heading down for at least the next 14 months. This analysis of being in Intermediate wave 4 will only be proven accurate if a new high above 4448.47 is achieved while invalidated below 4048.28.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Trading Plans for FRI. 06/23 - Bull Run Consolidation, ContinuedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/23 In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning. The index slightly consolidated downwards from 4409.59 from the close on Thursday, 06/15 to the close of 4381.89 yesterday, Thursday, 06/22.  Our models indicate 4315-4325 as the next support level, which might be tested in the coming days. The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play. Those bulls who must have noted our models' trading plans and took some money off the table would have saved themselves some heartache. Bears should be nimble with their shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken, yet. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4350, with a hard stop at 4406, effective from 11:00am EST today. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4393, 4375, 4366, 4352, or 4341 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4390, 4363, 4349, or 4338 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4373. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
S&P 500, 6/22/23For Thursday, 4444.50 can contain session strength, below which 4352.50 is likely intraday, 4257.50 in reach by the end of next week, where the market can bottom out on a weekly basis, possibly into later July.   Upside Thursday, pushing/opening above 4444.50 signals 4462.50, while closing today above 4444.50 indicates 4503.50 within several days, able to contain buying through next week and the point to settle above for yielding the 4613.00 longer-term objective within several more weeks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Powell Trying to Tame the Runaway Bull?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/21 In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning. The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in last Thursday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead, while also cautious about continued short squeezes off of any fresh shorts drawn in by the prints higher in the "new bull market". By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4390, 4379, 4368, or 4357 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4385, 4376, 4364, or 4354 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
3
Bottom targets if moving downBased on the theory the market has topped, the following is what we should roughly see next. There is still a chance Cycle B is not completed and I will outline what that could look like later this week or next. A few of those theories have us in only Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave C of Cycle wave B up with the next possible market top around 4631. However, Intermediate wave 4 would bottom no lower than 4387, which it did on June 20th. Another theory for a long and drawn up Supercycle wave 2 would put the market in Intermediate wave 2 up in the early stages of Primary wave A down. This would be the case if Supercycle wave 2 were to trickle downward for 5+ years. For now we will stick with the beginning of Cycle wave C down. Position: Submillennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle 5, Supercycle 2, Cycle C, Primary A Heading: Downward Shorthand wave reference: 152CA. Cycle was C will also end Supercycle wave 2 so we will forecast what wave 2 could do based on the completion of Supercycle wave 1 and the relational history of waves ending in 152. I have Supercycle wave 1 beginning in March 2009 and ending January 2022. This saw the market gain 4,151.83 points over 3,252 trading days for a rise over run of 1.277. Based on these figures and waves ending in 152, Supercycle wave 2 could retrace the total points at the following quartile levels (light blue lines in the chart below). The first quartile of all movement would be at 25.37%, the median movement of all historical data is 45.71%, while the third quartile of historical retracements is at 75.67%. Based on the same wave data, the most model agreement is in Supercycle wave 2 lasting 1,626 trading days. Second most model agreement is on 4,878 trading days, while third is a large tie at 469, 813, 929, 976, 1,084, and 1,158 trading days. Based on a broader dataset for waves ending in 52, the movement quartiles (yellow levels below) are 33.43%, 50.17%, & 68.96%. The models agree the most on a length of 1,626 trading days in length, second is 3,252, third is 813, fourth is 1,084, fifth is a tie at 542, 765, 929, & 1,445. A general point of reference for those dates is: 469: November 15, 2023 765: January 20, 2025 813: March 27, 2025 929: September 1, 2025 976: November 10, 2025 1084: April 6, 2026 1158: July 20, 2026 1626: May 8, 2028 4878: October 1, 2040 On very rare occasions, a macro wave 2 exceeds the length of the preceding wave 1. This would likely take anything over 3,252 days off the table. Macro second waves tend to retrace between 38.6%-57.43% of the prior wave 1’s movement. This would place the bottom between 2434.22-3216.01. Here is the chart solely based on Supercycle wave 1’s data: My initial forecast would place the market bottom around 2740 by mid-September 2024. All retracement levels are on the main chart with labels on the right side. ========+++++++++++========+++++++++++======== Here are the stats using the data from completed Cycle wave A and possible completion of Cycle wave B: Wave A lost 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days for a rise over run of 6.805. Wave B gained 956.89 points over 168 trading days for a rise over run of 5.696. This was 86.15% of the duration of wave A and a 72.11% retracement of wave A’s movement. Based on waves ending in 152C, Cycle wave C could extend the following quartile levels (light blue labels on left side of main chart) of Cycle wave A’s movement—93.53%, 126.25%, & 139.10%. Of note, the longest historical movement extension was only 149.86% of wave A’s movement. The models do not show strong agreement on any lengths, however, a grouping between 312-336 trading days was noted. Based on a slightly broader set of data for waves ending in 52C, quartile levels (yellow lines) are 96.12%, 138.69%, & 144.22%. Once again, the maximum extension is 149.86%. The models agree on duration of 195, 224, and 336 trading days. There are zero levels of secondary model agreement, however, there is large grouping between 106-130 and other groupings at 162-168, 312-317, and 390-392. Lastly, based on the broadest dataset is waves ending in 2C. The quartile levels (white lines) are 109.83%, 132.02%, & 154.44%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 168 and 195 trading days, secondary agreement at 98 days, third at 224, 292, and 390. The days for reference are: 98: November 6, 2023 112: November 27, 2023 168: February 16, 2024 195: March 27, 2024 224: May 8, 2024 292: August 15, 2024 312: Friday, September 13, 2024 336: October 17, 2024 390: January 3, 2025 These ranges introduce many possibilities. There is a downward trendline that had been providing resistance during Cycle wave A, that may provide resistance during the next downtrend. After reviewing all of the above data and finding intersection points with the trendline I am monitoring the following targets for now. If the bottom is November 27, 2023, the target may be around 3361. If the bottom is May 8, 2024, the target could be 2972.71. The targets thereafter are beyond the 149.86% threshold which has proven consistent thus far. A breach is always possible which would open the door to more targets of 2769 by August 15, 2024 and 2735 by September 13, 2024. The other targets lack intersection at this time. These are the initial estimates moving forward and continuing under the assumption the market has indeed topped at 4448. I will later map out the 5 wave structure to these bottoms to see which ones line up with current movement and additionally identify where we could move if we break above 4448 within the next 15 trading days. The best confirmation right now of us being in Cycle wave C and the final downward slope would be a break below 4048.28 before a move above 4448.47. The first level broken will confirm the next step.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
SBUX is now bouncing of a potential support zone - weeklyThe weekly timeframe shows, that the price of this stock is bouncing of a support zone. It forms from previous bounces from this zone as shown in the chart. Besides that, we have a bullish engulfing candle last week. So there is a potential buy opportunity with a 2:1 Risk-Reward-Ratio to the upside. Enter: 101,87 StopLoss: 95,38 TakeProfit: 113,9 have a great week! Best regards Tradinguny FYI: No financial advice or consulting. It is only my view on the stock and is for entertainment and education purposes only!
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by GuennyFinance
S&P 500, 6/20/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.   On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months. - For Tuesday, 4451.75 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 4606.50 remains 2 - 3 week objective.   Upside Tuesday, 2522.50 can contain session strength, while closing above 4522.50 should yield 4606.50 by the end of next week, able to contain buying through July.   Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4451.75 allows 4404.25 intraday, able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for indicating a good weekly high, 4299.50 then expected by the end of next week, where the market can place a weekly low, possibly into later July trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis