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New Program Relooks at Market TopWith our newest program online, we will relook at the market top from an hourly data viewpoint based on historical wave relationships. The first set will determine the expected behavior of Intermediate wave 5, and then Primary wave C will be examined. Current belief is the market is in Sub-Millennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle wave 5, Supercycle wave 2, Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5. The shorthand reference for this is the alphanumeric of the waves combined—152BC5. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 Intermediate wave 1 was 175 hours and a gain of 360.62 points from the market’s most recent low in mid-March 2023. Intermediate wave 2 then lost 121.20 points in 86 trading hours before Intermediate wave 3 gained 400.19 points in 208 hours. Finally, Intermediate wave 4 lost 120.39 points in 41 trading hours setting up Intermediate wave 5 to complete the cycle with upward movement toward, but likely short of, the all-time market high of 4818 from January 2022. Based on historical wave data for similar waves ending in 52BC5, Intermediate wave 5 is broken up into fourths, or quartiles of possible movement. The first quartile of data suggest wave 5 could extend beyond the movement of Intermediate wave 3’s top (end point) by 106.33% while the data’s median suggests 133.605% and the third quartile is at 152.82%. The maximum recorded extension thus far was 153%. This would indicate the market will top below 4660. Still based on the same dataset, the most amount of models indicate the end of Intermediate wave 5 could occur within 86 trading hours. Second most agreement is a tie among many lengths, but the models are not strong enough. These levels are 96, 104, 123, or 624 hours. As of Friday’s close on July 21, 2023, Intermediate wave 5 is 123 hours long IF it is still ongoing. The current high was on July 19 at 105 trading hours. Based on waves ending in 2BC5, the quartile extension levels are 110.65%, 129.39%, & 152.82% with the maximum extension at 192.58% (nearly double the length of wave 3’s movement). The models for duration agree the strongest on a length of 41 trading hours. Second most agreement is 86 while third is a tie at 52, 175, and 208. Fourth agreement is 26 hours and fifth is 88 hours. Most of these lengths have already been surpassed with the exception of 175 and 208. Based on waves ending in BC5, the quartile extension levels are 113.62%, 127.15%, & 147.45%. Strongest model forecast for length remains at 41 hours, with second most agreement at 208 hours, third at 52 hours, fourth at 246 hours, and fifth at 86 hours. This analysis could also indicate the market topped on July 19, 2023 as it was near two historical reversal levels AND 105 trading hours long which was next to a modelled point. If the top is not in, it could occur on or before August 2 PRIMARY WAVE C Primary wave A began when the market bottomed in mid-October 2022 and gained 608.93 points in 235 trading hours. Primary wave B then lost 291.65 points by the time it bottomed 476 trading hours later. Based on waves ending in 152BC, the quartile extension for Primary wave C are 126.53%, 152.48%, & 161.79% with the maximum at 181.32% (these lines are the right-most scaled on the above chart). The models only agree on one length which is 476 hours, which is the same as Primary wave B which means it may not occur in this instance. Some B waves are a 1:1 length of the following C waves, however, that is generally observed on a much smaller scale which is not the case here. I will wait for the next broader dataset to determine possible lengths. So far all quartiles have been surpassed and the prior maximum observed is at 4595.69. The current market high is at 615 hours, and the market close at trading hour 633 on Friday. Based on waves ending in 52BC, the quartile extension levels are 125.13%, 149.765%, & 166.55%. The models once again agree the most at 476 hours, with second most agreement scattered at 235, 238, & 952 hours. Although not strongly endorsed, the next duration that is projected and is yet to occur is 705 trading hours which is roughly August 7, 2023. CONCLUSION There is a chance the market top has already occurred on July 19, 2023. If it has not occurred, it could occur as early as this coming week. The Federal Reserve has another rate decision on Wednesday and has a history of making for a volatile aftermath. Most of the data in this analysis is pointing to a market top below 4638.36 and possibly below 4596. The duration models do not help as much on an hourly scale. If the values are correct, the market may not top for another whole week. Regardless of the results, this new program should help determine many of the steps down in the pending bear market finale likely rolling through the next trading year.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Is Minor Wave 4 Over?Our newest system is online and in the Beta testing phase for forecasting waves. We will use this to project Minor wave 4 endpoints on an hourly chart. Based on historical data, models for waves ending in BC54, are broken into the following quartile retracement levels: 10.12%, 32.79%, and 40.09%. Strongest model agreement for length points to Minor wave 4 lasting 9 trading hours with second most agreement at 21 hours. Third agreement is 13 hours and then 18 hours. Based on waves ending in C54, the quartile retracement levels are 26.15%, 36.62% and 48%. The length in trading hours has strongest agreement at 13 hours, then 9 hours, 3 hours, and 10 hours. Fifth is a tie at 5 and 18 trading hours. The 26.15% level equates to a low at 4527.86 which is nearly the same place as Minor wave 4’s current low of 4527.56. The following is a new subset of data which is based on previous Minor wave 4s inside of Intermediate wave 5s inside of Primary wave Cs. Based on this data, the quartile retracements are 8.24%, 37.2%, and 40.98%. Models agree the most at 18 or 3 hours long. Second most agreement is also tied at 4 or 5 hours. Now, lets revisit the historical data based on daily bars and waves. The following was written in my most recent analysis, “Based on models ending in C54, strongest model agreement would have Minor wave 4 only last one day. Second model agreement is tied at 2 or 3 trading days. A far fourth agreement is 4 days while a further fifth is at 7 days. Movement retracement quartiles are at 28.23%, 37.305%, and 52.09%. Based on waves ending in 54, strongest model agreement is on Minor wave 4 lasting 2 trading days with second most agreement at 1 day and third at 3 days. Models significantly drop off afterward with 4 days in fourth and five days in fifth. The quartile retracement levels are 27.27%, 42.40%, and 57.21%.” The low thus far was at hour 10 on an hourly chart and day 1 on a daily chart at 4527.56. A case can be made that this low represents the bottom of Minute wave A or the actual end of Minor wave 4. If we are still in Minor wave 4, Minute waves A down and B up have likely concluded and are depicted below on a 15 minute chart: If the market remains in the final stages of Minor wave 4 downward, the market will likely move lower within the first few hours of trading on Monday. The 21st hour of Minor wave 4 concludes 120 minutes into trading a Monday. The low would likely occur before that time. The low would also likely occur beneath the currently achieved low of 4527.56. Based on all of the data, a low beneath 4500 remains unlikely. This scenario would also make the length a total of 3 trading days on the daily chart and inline with the projections from the daily set of historical data. I plan to conduct another analysis on Minor wave 5 after the market closes on Monday, however, an early low on Monday followed by gains could drastically shrink the ability to forecast major upward movements for Minor wave 5 since the current projected top is around 4600. I will provide another Intermediate wave 5 forecast within the next day based on the new program to potentially best identify the market top on a more macro set of datapoints.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Volatile Triple Witching FridayS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 07/21 Today being the Triple Witching Friday would likely lead to artificial spikes in either direction, leading to a choppy market action. Unless you are a professional trader or a long term positional trader, you might want to sit out today's market volatility. This week's earnings should shed some light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. Early earnings so far indicate strong earnings momentum. If the earnings continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top. The previously stated level of 4500-4505 is now a key area of support, and 4575-4580 is the next area of resistance. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4561, 4555, or 4532 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4552, 4539, or 4529 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4559, and explicit short exits on a break above 4542. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Earnings Exuberance Evaporating?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 07/20 Market action since yesterday's close indicate the potential for the "Irrational Exuberance" prevailing for the last few months could begin to settle down to economic realities ("potential", and "could" are the operative words there). This week's earnings should shed some light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. Early earnings so far indicate strong earnings momentum. If the earnings continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top. The previously stated level of 4500-4505 is now a key area of support, and 4575-4580 is the next area of resistance. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4568, 4556, or 4536 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4564, 4552, 4546, or 4533 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4559. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Wave 5 “UP”dateRescaling Minor wave 1 to the top on June 30, and the low three days later as Minor wave 2 would put market in or near the end of Minor wave 3 up. Based on models ending in C53, Minor wave 3 could last 6 days, with second model agreement at 9 days, third agreement is back at 2 and 4 days. Least agreement is shared at 11, 13, 21, and 30 days. Today is day 9 and could have been the temporary market top. See analysis below to further play out this scenario. The tops based on quartile movement extensions of Minor wave 1 (light blue lines) have the first quartile of data topping at 123.32%, 178.33% is the median and third quartile of all historical data is at 201.70%. The market hit the median yesterday and is halfway between the median and third quartile levels with a current extension of 191.99% meaning the end of Minor wave 3 could have occurred today or will happen soon. Based on waves ending in 53, strongest model agreement is at 6 days again, followed by 9 days. Third most agreement is 4 days followed by 3 days and then 11 days. Regarding movement extension levels, the first quartile and median have already been surpassed and the third quartile remains untouched at 201.70% IF Minor wave 3 ended today, the next movement for the market should be briefly downward. Based on models ending in C54, strongest model agreement would have Minor wave 4 only last one day. Second model agreement is tied at 2 or 3 trading days. A far fourth agreement is 4 days while a further fifth is at 7 days. Movement retracement quartiles are at 28.23%, 37.305%, and 52.09%. Based on waves ending in 54, strongest model agreement is on Minor wave 4 lasting 2 trading days with second most agreement at 1 day and third at 3 days. Models significantly drop off afterward with 4 days in fourth and five days in fifth. The quartile retracement levels are 27.27%, 42.40%, and 57.21%. With day 1 being tomorrow, the market’s next low should occur before week’s end and possibly around 4515-4520. Early indications with Minor wave 1 lasting 4 days, and assuming wave 3 was 9 days, is that the final market top could occur next week. Fed decision is expected Wednesday.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Q2 Earnings Releases Gain Momentum - Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 07/19 This week's earnings should shed some light on how the markets are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. Early earnings so far indicate strong earnings momentum. If the earnings continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top. The previously stated level of 4500-4505 is now a key area of support, and 4605-4610 is the upside target - and, next area of resistance - which could be tested in the near future if earnings momentum continues. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4561, 4556, 4538, or 4532 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4554, 4536, or 4529 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4559. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Earnings Under Microscope - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 07/18 This week's earnings should shed some light on how earnings are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. Early earnings yesterday and today indicate strong earnings momentum. If the earnings continue to appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. But, If the earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top. The previously stated level of 4500-4505 is now a key area of support to watch. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4548, 4530, 4513, or 4502 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4545, 4539, 4526, 4510, or 4499 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for the day. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:16pm EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
SPY - NIKKEI225 - We're In The Great Depression + INCOME DATA Problem with monetary fiscal policy and debasement? your markets start to hyperinflation especially when you try to patch previous bubbles *cough* QT *cough* BTFP *cough* ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- The average net yearly income of Americans during 1930 was $4,887.01 Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 8.7% AFTER TAX - $4,788 $4,788 in 1930 is worth $87,476.76 today ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- The average net yearly income of Americans during 1933 was $4,218.40 Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 24.9% AFTER TAX - $4,045 $4,045 in 1933 is worth $94,935.84 today ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- The average net yearly income of Americans during 2023 $74,738. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 3.6% AFTER TAX - $57,237 ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- CONCLUSION - The average American is 65.83% poorer than the average American during the great depression. Debasing the currency does not solve poverty and enhances it. All of this data is from the IRS FRED seems to not provide information prior 1960 now you know why they don't include this on the charts. Sadly I feel most people don't understand that what is coming is not a "recession" not a "08 RE crash" its going to be a foundational collapse of the entire US debt system / treasuries / stock markets / credit crisis / liquidity crisis. ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- United States Government Debt: % of GDP 2023 = 133% Japan General Government Gross Debt to GDP 1989 = 65% Federal Debt: Total Public Debt Q1 2023: 31,458,438 or 31.4 Trillion I'm personally putting a target for 2026 for the end of the US currency reserve system The only option here is to either print more 100s of trillions than Weimar Germany Or force the entire US & Allies onto a new dollar that will combine all G7 currencies. Hopefully people can understand why there's so much controversial developments on Russia & BRICS +, this current war is nothing to do with helping another country. Its because BRICS see's the end of the US system and they are preparing for it. (sources) www.irs.gov www.irs.gov Tax rates include normal taxes of 1.5 percent on the first $4,000 of taxable income, 3 percent on the next $4,000, and 5 percent on taxable income over $8,000, plus applicable surtaxes. Last law to change rates was the Revenue Act of 1928.
FRED:NIKKEI225
by FederalXBT
2
Q2 Earnings to Come Under MicroscopeS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 07/17 The big banks have kickstarted the earnings season last Friday with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, and are going to gain steam this week with other big names in Finance and Tech. This week should shed some light on how earnings are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next few weeks. If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. The previously stated level of 4500-4505 is now a key area to watch for both as a support and as a resistance level. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4526, 4520, 4513, or 4502 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4510, 4499, or 4490 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4523 or 4517, and short exits on a break above 4493. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Bubbles don't finish unwinding sideways, it needs to be vertical There's two major problems when looking at the SPY today One - USM2 debasement is a real metric changer Two - The QE from 2021 has backfired Things are going terribly wrong for the FRED they know Japan tried forms of QE prior to the 1989 melt up that led to the demise of the entire Japanese economy for decades. In 2019 its was an emergency and if QE did not launch the GFC 2.0 would have happen during the credit freeze. The FRED are now trying to taper this path changing direction to not cause a Japan style melt up. 219% was the first warning sign Japan lost control and rates stopped working 205% is your warning sign the FRED lost control and the rates have once again stopped working. Both scenarios there was too much leverage for a safe landing forcing the BoJ and the FRED to lower rates near Zero. FRED's idea lets raise rates faster and higher than BoJ did to pre strike a market melt up. Warning Warning Warning FRED your rates are not working and if the SPY takes out the previous high its going to ignite the final wave of the bubble. ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- If this does playout the warning sign will be a parabolic almost vertical move to the upside once that happens you have about 2 years to avoid the vertical drop. Why is this happening if its so clear? simple the US government is in a debt deficit crisis the FRED is lying trying to send the economy to 0% inflation you cannot tax no inflation and the government system will halt, pretty soon the FRED will be forced into some form of yield curve control / QE to keep inflation elevated. Lessons from history YOU DONT PUSH THE QE BUTTON. YOU DO NOT PUSH THE YCC BUTTON. Once you do and your debt to GDP goes past 100% there's no going back without an eventual system meltdown.
AMEX:SPY
by FederalXBT
Earnings Kickoff In EarnestS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 07/14 The big banks have kickstarted the earnings season with JP Morgan and Wells Fargo numbers coming in strong. Next week will give more insights into how earnings are shaping up in the wake of the sticky inflation. With a quarter-point rate increase almost a given, the July FOMC meeting may be a non-event, and earnings could be the driving force for the next couple of weeks. If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. The previously stated level of 4500-4505 is now a key area to watch for both as a support and a resistance level. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4532, 4518, or 4502 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4515, 4499, 4490, or 4480 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4528, and short exits on a break above 4493 or 4482. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:36am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Stock HeatmapHave you ever heard of a stock heatmap? 📈 It's an innovative and visually appealing tool used in the world of finance to analyze and interpret market data. Let's explore what it is and how it can be useful in your trading journey. 🌡️ What is a Stock Heatmap? A stock heatmap is a graphical representation of a large set of stocks or securities, where each individual stock is color-coded based on its performance or specific metrics. It provides a visual snapshot of the entire market or a specific sector, helping traders quickly identify trends, strengths, and weaknesses. 🔍 Utilizing Heatmaps 1️⃣ Market Analysis: Heatmaps allow you to assess the overall market sentiment and identify which stocks are performing well and which ones are underperforming. 2️⃣ Sector Analysis: By using sector-specific heatmaps, you can easily spot strong sectors and weak sectors, helping you make informed decisions about sector rotation strategies. 3️⃣ Stock Selection: Heatmaps can assist in narrowing down potential trading opportunities by highlighting stocks with significant price movements, volume surges, or specific technical indicators. 4️⃣ Risk Management: Heatmaps help you assess the risk-reward profile of different stocks, enabling you to prioritize stocks that align with your risk tolerance and investment goals. Remember, a stock heatmap should be used as a complementary tool alongside other fundamental and technical analysis techniques. It provides a dynamic and intuitive way to visualize market data, aiding in decision-making and identifying potential trading opportunities.
SP:SPXEducation
by FinanzasTip
1
VIX vs S&P500The VIX index (officially known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index), developed by CBOE in 1993, is calculated based on the implied volatility of call and put options on the S&P500; index (SPX) over a 30-day period. The theory behind the volatility index is that if investors believe the market is going to decline, they will hedge their portfolios by buying puts (the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date). Conversely, if traders are bullish, they may not want to hedge against potential downturns. This index shows a negative correlation with the S&P500.; When there is high volatility, the VIX reaches high values and is often accompanied by declines in the S&P500;, indicating fear and pessimism in the market. These events often lead to significant movements in the stock markets. Conversely, when the VIX is at lows, there is confidence in the market and movements are smoother. Relevant VIX levels: VIX<20: Investor confidence. Often coincides with bullish periods for the S&P500.; 2030: Increased investor pessimism or fear. High volatility and the potential for significant downward corrections in the prices of the S&P500; and major stock indices.
TVC:VIX
by FinanzasTip
1
PPI Good News on Inflation Bad News on Recession?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 07/13 The softer than expected PPI on the top of yesterday's softer inflation numbers are likely going to stoke the "Half Full, Half Empty" debate to a higher pitch. The die-hard bulls would like to see it as an indication of the coveted "soft landing", while the die-hard bears would like to cast this as an indication of potential recession ahead. The next question that needs to be answered to resolve this debate in one way or another: is the softening inflation going to impact earnings numbers? We will start getting a glimpse into this starting from tomorrow. If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. The previously stated level of 4500-4505 is the next area of resistance. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4507, 4491, 4467, or 4454 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4497, 4486, 4478, or 4448 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4463, 4483, or 4504, and short exits on a break above 4483 or 4500. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:41am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 13, 2023Key News: UK - GDP (MoM) (May) USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - PPI (MoM) (Jun) Despite relinquishing some of its gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average concluded Wednesday's trading session on a higher note. This positive finish was primarily attributed to a decline in Treasury yields and a surge in the tech sector, fueled by data indicating the slowest inflation increase in more than two years. The market sentiment has been uplifted by optimism that the forthcoming rate hike, scheduled for later this month, could potentially mark the conclusion of the tightening cycle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a 0.25% climb, translating to a gain of 86 points. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq witnessed a robust increase of 1.2%, and the S&P 500 displayed a notable rise of 0.74%. DJI indices daily chart Nasdaq indices daily chart S&P500 indices daily chart In June, the consumer price index (CPI) registered a modest uptick, rising by 0.2% following a 0.1% increase in May. Additionally, the annual inflation rate eased from 4% to 3%, reaching its lowest point since March 2021. These figures suggest a reduced level of price pressures in the economy. While there remains an expectation that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate hike later this month, the outlook for additional rate increases beyond July becomes less certain. The uncertainty stems from the possibility of upcoming economic data revealing a continued deceleration in inflation. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Jefferies, in a recent note, highlighted the importance of upcoming economic indicators in determining the trajectory of rate hikes. If indicators such as the Employment Cost Index on July 28, along with employment and inflation data released in August, continue to exhibit a slowdown similar to the recent Consumer Price Index data, it suggests that the rate hike scheduled for July could potentially mark the conclusion of the current cycle. In line with this sentiment, major technology companies, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: META), experienced a rebound following a recent downturn. This recovery was fueled by a significant decline in Treasury yields, driven by the expectation that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are nearing their conclusion. GOOGL stocks daily chart MSFT stocks daily chart META stocks daily chart Microsoft's shares surged by over 1% as the tech behemoth made significant strides in the completion of its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc (NASDAQ: ATVI), the renowned game developer responsible for the popular Call of Duty franchise. The acquisition received a boost as a Federal judge dismissed the Federal Trade Commission's request to delay the deal, citing insufficient evidence to support claims of potential competition harm. This favorable development played a crucial role in driving Microsoft's strong performance in the market. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The sell-off of the US dollar gained momentum after the release of the CPI data, leading to a rapid approach towards the 100 level on the dollar index. This consistent and significant movement has positive implications for global inflation dynamics. A weaker US dollar tends to drive down energy and raw material prices, which are often denominated in US dollars. Consequently, lower prices for these commodities can help alleviate inflationary pressures on a global scale. In contrast, a strengthening US dollar contributes to inflationary pressures worldwide. Therefore, the depreciation of the US dollar can provide relief in the face of such pressures. EUR/USD daily chart In the currency markets, notable movements were observed. The EUR/USD pair experienced a surge, reaching the 1.1150 level, indicating a strengthening of the Euro against the US dollar. Similarly, the GBP/USD pair surpassed the significant 1.30 level, signaling a rise in the British pound against the US dollar. Conversely, the USD/JPY pair extended its decline, falling below the psychological level of 140, implying a weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. These fluctuations highlight the dynamic nature of the currency markets and the interplay between different currency pairs. USD/JPY daily chart The anticipated release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for June today is expected to provide further insight into the global economy's disinflationary trend. Forecasts suggest a significant deceleration in the headline PPI, dropping from 1.1% in May to 0.4% in June. The core PPI is also projected to experience a more modest slowdown, declining from 2.8% to 2.6%. The weakening figures from the PPI may have implications for future Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, indicating a continued disinflationary environment. This reinforces the notion that the forthcoming rate hike in the United States will likely be the final one in the current cycle. In summary, the June PPI numbers are expected to confirm the prevailing disinflationary trend in the global economy. The projected slowdown in PPI figures suggests potential effects on future CPI data and supports the belief that the upcoming rate hike will be the last one.
by FOREXN1
11
Inflation Tame. Next Question - Earnings Soft?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 07/12 Markets are happy with the soft inflation numbers. The next question on the minds of investors - is it going to impact earnings numbers? If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. We will begin to get a sense of it starting Friday and then into early next week. The previously stated level of 4400-4410 continues to be in play as critical support. 4500-4505 is the next area of resistance. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4502, 4473, 4460, or 4431 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4498, 4487, 4469, 4457, or 4427 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits, and short exits on a break above 4491. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #earnings
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Fasten your seat belt, please.Hello investors. I repost and re-edit my chart multiple times to be updated. Take this one as long-term based on daily time frame. I think, crisis ain't done and the worst will come yet. We can spot a lot of similarities with 2008, when Bitcoin does not exist. It is on SP500 chart. To make is simple I let bars pattern in chart as an example: It would happen very soon, probably with start in this May ( traditional "Sell in May and go away" ). Don't read news if wave is done. This rally was suspicious from its beginning and only made Lehman formation. I don't expect much upsides - to be clear. I am just a passenger as you. So let's wait and see. My belt is fasten already ;-) With care always, Emvo.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Emvo10
15
Double-top on SPX?The previous week was filled with numerous data disclosures that provided deeper insights into the U.S. economy. Most notably, we saw the first month-over-month decline of the S&P Global Services PMI in 2023 (negatively affecting the S&P Global Composite PMI), a continuation of contraction in the manufacturing sector, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate (from 3.7% in May 2023 to 3.6% in June 2023). Overall, the data has not proved recessionary yet. But with services slowing down, it would be appropriate to stay cautious and wait for more data to reveal underlying trends in the economy. In our opinion, the current valuations for stocks seem overstretched (especially in the tech sector), and the replacement of fear and calls for a recession by the narrative dismissive of any danger to the U.S. economy could lead to a volatile concoction in the stock market. As a result, we are monitoring multiple technical indicators on a daily time frame, including RSI, MACD, and Stochastic. All three of these indicators show divergence with the price and point to the downside, which is not particularly bullish. In addition to that, SPX appears to be forming a double top, giving rise to an interesting setup if the pattern becomes valid. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the mentioned setup. The bearish trigger becomes activated once the price breaks below Support 1. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows nearly the perfect harmony between the decline from January 2022 until October 2022 and the rise from October 2022 until July 2022. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish (with signs of weakness) Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
27
SP500 Is Looking Higher By Elliott Wave TheorySP500 is looking higher for wave 5 of (5) of a five-wave bullish impulse by Elliott wave theory. SP500 is bullish from 4100 area, an impulse that can resume even higher as the current sideways price action at 4360-4500 area appears like a corrective fourth wave, possibly a triangle or flat, but in either case more gains can be seen this month. Hidden divergence also suggests that price can be looking for a support soon. Support is at 4368, for a more complex and deeper w. 4.
CME_MINI:ESU2023
by ew-forecast
Waiting on Inflation and Earnings Numbers - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 07/11 Markets are waiting to see and digest the inflation numbers and then the kick-off of earnings season. If early earnings show any unexpected weakness ("unexpected" is the key word there), then we might have seen an interim top; but, if the earnings appear to be on track or with a bias to the upside surprises then the next bull leg could get well entrenched. Until this clarity emerges, expect volatility and choppy markets ahead. The previously stated level of 4400-4410 continues to be in play as critical support. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate staying out of the markets until otherwise stated. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4441, 4423, 4417, 4400, or 4375 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4438, 4415, 4390, or 4372 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4420 or 4397, and short exits on a break above 4392. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am EST or later.
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAICorp