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S&P500 vs Yield Curve vs FedFunds vs Unemployment📢 Yield curve inversion alert! Here's what you need to know: 📉 The 10-year minus 2-year yield curve has inverted 📉 This occurrence, where the shorter-term yields surpass longer-term yields, often raises concerns about the economy's health. Historically, such inversions have been associated with impending economic downturns. The inversion of the yield curve is a signal that investors are expecting short-term interest rates to rise above long-term interest rates in the future. This can happen when investors are worried about the economy and are demanding higher yields on long-term bonds to compensate for the risk of a recession. The inversion of the yield curve has been followed by a decline in the S&P 500 stock index in the past. On average, the S&P 500 has fallen by 10% within a year of a yield curve inversion. However, it is important to note that the yield curve inversion is not a perfect predictor of recessions. There have been times when the yield curve has inverted, and a recession has not followed. 🔍 Let's compare past inversions: 1️⃣ 2000 .com bust: The yield curve inversion preceded the dot-com bubble burst, signaling an economic recession. The S&P 500 experienced a significant decline, eroding investor wealth. 2️⃣ 2008 financial crisis: Another yield curve inversion preceded the global financial crisis and housing market collapse. The S&P 500 plummeted, leading to a severe recession and widespread financial turmoil. 📊 How does the yield curve inversion relate to the S&P 500? In the past, yield curve inversions have often been followed by stock market declines. While it doesn't guarantee an immediate crash, it serves as a warning sign for investors and may impact market sentiment and investment strategies. 💰 Relationship to the federal funds rate and unemployment rate: A yield curve inversion can influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates. In response to an inversion, the Fed may reduce rates to stimulate the economy and prevent a recession. The Federal Reserve is closely watching the yield curve inversion and has signaled that it is committed to raising interest rates in order to combat inflation. However, the Fed may be more cautious about raising rates if the yield curve continues to invert. Additionally, unemployment rates tend to rise during economic downturns associated with yield curve inversions. The unemployment rate is an important indicator to watch. A rising unemployment rate can be a sign that the economy is slowing down. However, the unemployment rate is currently at a low level, which may give the Fed more confidence to raise interest rates. 🔮 Projections for the current yield curve inversion: While it's challenging to predict exact outcomes, historical patterns suggest caution. The current inversion may signal a potential slowdown or economic headwinds. The stock market could face increased volatility, and the Fed may consider adjusting interest rates accordingly. Monitoring unemployment rates becomes crucial as they may rise if economic conditions deteriorate. Overall, the yield curve inversion is a sign that investors are worried about the economy. However, it is too early to say whether a recession is imminent. Investors should continue to monitor the yield curve and other economic indicators for signs of a slowdown. ⚠️ Stay informed, diversify investments, and consult financial professionals for personalized advice during uncertain times.
SP:SPX
by PrepForProfit
Time To Drop After Tuesday's Nice Pop?Assuming we are early into the long trip downward would put us somewhere in the early stages of Cycle wave C down, Primary wave 1 down, Intermediate wave 2 up. This would have made Intermediate wave 1 down 5 trading days long with a 120.39 point drop. Based on waves ending in C12, Intermediate wave 2 will last 1 day. There are zero other possible lengths. The quartile movements (blue levels on left) are 27.99%, 50.12%, and 56.51%. Based on waves ending in 12, strongest model agreement for length remains at 1 trading day and second strongest by a lot is 2 trading days. Quartile retracement levels (yellow lines) are at 27.99%, 42.03%, and 66.20%. Tuesday was the first official trading day of Intermediate wave 2. This is quite possibly the only trading day of wave 2. IF wave 2 achieves a new high tomorrow, Thursday would likely not see a new high for a very long time until we drop well below 4328 again. IF a new high is achieved tomorrow it may remain at or under 4400. IF we break above 4400 tomorrow, we may still be BACK in Cycle wave B as was identified in my most recent Devil’s Advocate Analysis. IF back in, well still in B, the market is either in the final Intermediate wave 4 Minor wave B up or the early stages of Intermediate wave 5 which would likely lead to a final market top within 2 weeks. If no new high is achieved and the market falls (likely based on all the Bank of England/Central Bank/Federal Reserve panels in Portugal) the market is in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3 down. This scenario would have seen Intermediate wave 2 last a single day and retrace 46.8% of Intermediate wave 1’s movement. Based on waves ending in C13, the quartile movement extensions of wave 1’s movement (blue levels farther on right) are 135.64%, 140.60%, and 165.83%. Most model agree on a length of 4-6 days, with secondary agreement at 7, 8, or 10 trading days long. Based on waves ending in 13, the quartile movement extensions (yellow) are 137.30%, 162.265%, and 198.02%. Models have strongest agreement on length at 5 days long, second is 1 or 4 days, third most agreement is 3 days, fourth is 7 days, fifth is 6 days, sixth is 2 or 10 days. Based on these models, the initial forecast is a possible market low late next week after the American holiday possibly below 4279 and probably not below 4240. This would equate to a drop of around 120 points in about 6 trading days. This is pretty much the same thing accomplished by Intermediate wave 1. Let us see how this plays out beginning with movement tomorrow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500 hits target, Time for a correction?The S&P500 has hit our first target a couple of days ago. Now the price is at the lower level of the resistance zone. This could mean that a correction is due. I believe that the resistance will be either broken or held at the end of the week. In this case, the most likely scenario is that the resistance will hold, and that we'll see lower prices for the upcoming weeks. This post gets invalidated the moment the lower resistance level breaks.
SP:SPXShort
by FetchTeam
Markets Awaiting the PCE and FOMC – Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/28 Our models indicate choppy trading with no directional momentum until PCE release later this week. Depending on the number, it may bring inflation and interest rates back onto the market radar, with downside pressure added on the markets, which could crescendo into the FOMC meeting next week. In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates since then. The index slightly consolidated downwards from 4409.59 from the close on Thursday, 06/15 to the close of 4381.89 Thursday, 06/22.  Our models indicated 4315-4325 as the next support level, which was tested within next few days and the market rebounded from there. 4400-4410 is the resistance level, below which the bias is choppy at best. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models went short on the break below 4350 on Friday, with a hard stop at 4406. For today, models indicate carrying the short, with the hard stop updated to 4416 and a take-profit instituted at 4325. If the short is closed out through one of these exits, models indicate staying flat until indicated otherwise. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an index-tracking instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4380, 4373, 4363, or 4351 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4377, 4370, 4360, or 4348 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #speech
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
SP500 Bearish ScenarioThe #SP500 diverged 61% from the trend it had referenced since 1940. When we look at such divergences in history, we see that the index has returned to the reference trend. The beginning of this reversal is usually confirmed by a close below the SMA9 on the 3-month timeframe. This level is currently displayed as $4174. In a possible bear scenario, EMA60 or $2651 will guide us for the priority return level. Finally, EMA120, which is already at the same level as the reference trend level, will act as the last support. In addition, looking at the SP500 index in the daily time frame, the McClellan Oscillator, which has been working very successfully since 1900s, turned negative last week. However, another factor that can contribute to my analysis is that the monetary and fiscal policies made by HSBC today are not compatible with the bond and stock markets, and that the current recession will go further.
SP:SPX
by YavuzAkbay
TUE. 06/27 Markets Awaiting the PCE and FOMC - Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/27 Our models indicate choppy trading with no directional momentum until PCE release later this week. Depending on the number, it may bring inflation and interest rates back onto the market radar, with downside pressure added on the markets, which could crescendo into the FOMC meeting next week. In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning. The index slightly consolidated downwards from 4409.59 from the close on Thursday, 06/15 to the close of 4381.89 Thursday, 06/22.  Our models indicate 4315-4325 as the next support level, which might be tested in the coming days. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models went short on the break below 4350 on Friday, with a hard stop at 4406. For today, models indicate a profit take on a break above 4324. If the short is closed, models indicate going short again on a break below 4320, with a trailing stop of 12 points. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4373, 4366, 4343, or 4324 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4370, 4360, 4339, or 4321 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4370, and explicit short exits on a break above 4363. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:45am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #speech
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Devil's Advocate Analysis of Prior AnalysisI mentioned an analysis would be published in the event the market has not topped. This analysis can be useful if the market abides by it we could return up, otherwise it can help confirm the market top did occur on June 16. If the top from June 16 was not the market top we are likely in Intermediate wave 4 and may have possibly finished the bottom with the low on June 23. Based on waves ending in 2BC4, the quartile levels for retracement (light blue lines) are 13.73%, 15.06%, and 74.64%. The duration for Intermediate wave 4 is either 2 or 12 trading days based on model agreement. Second most model agreement is at 15 and 20 days. Based on waves ending in BC4, quartile levels (yellow on chart above) are 23.9%, 46.49%, and 55.05%. Majority of models point to a duration of 2 trading days long, with second most at 3 trading days. Third model agreement is 12 days and fourth agreement is 7 days. The broadest dataset is models ending in C4 wherein the quartile levels are 27.2%, 42.48%, and 55.05%. Trading day duration have most models agreeing with 12 days. Then the models agree on duration in the following order: 5 days; 1 & 7 days; 2, 4, & 6 days; and 8 & 14 days. The original analysis when forecasting Intermediate wave 4 had the same levels for retracement while the lengths were shorter. The most accurate levels based on specific relational data has already been surpassed when the market dropped beyond 3 days and the lowest level was well below 4388.20 (15.06% retracement). It is still possible for Intermediate wave 4 to go below 4388.20 and beyond 3 trading days in length (4 days at the time of writing). My other indicators at the bottom of the chart indicate a near term bottom is not likely in which further indicates the market will still achieve a new low soon. A wave 3 signal did occur inline with the June 16 market top which could have indicated the end of Intermediate wave 3, however, it also signals the end of a 2, 4, or B wave. My initial analysis has this as the end of a macro wave B. My SAG Gauge indicates more down days are record to pull the market back from an overbought territory that always corrects. I still believe the market topped on June 16th and we will be heading down for at least the next 14 months. This analysis of being in Intermediate wave 4 will only be proven accurate if a new high above 4448.47 is achieved while invalidated below 4048.28.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Trading Plans for FRI. 06/23 - Bull Run Consolidation, ContinuedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/23 In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning. The index slightly consolidated downwards from 4409.59 from the close on Thursday, 06/15 to the close of 4381.89 yesterday, Thursday, 06/22.  Our models indicate 4315-4325 as the next support level, which might be tested in the coming days. The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play. Those bulls who must have noted our models' trading plans and took some money off the table would have saved themselves some heartache. Bears should be nimble with their shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken, yet. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4350, with a hard stop at 4406, effective from 11:00am EST today. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4393, 4375, 4366, 4352, or 4341 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4390, 4363, 4349, or 4338 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4373. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
S&P 500, 6/22/23For Thursday, 4444.50 can contain session strength, below which 4352.50 is likely intraday, 4257.50 in reach by the end of next week, where the market can bottom out on a weekly basis, possibly into later July.   Upside Thursday, pushing/opening above 4444.50 signals 4462.50, while closing today above 4444.50 indicates 4503.50 within several days, able to contain buying through next week and the point to settle above for yielding the 4613.00 longer-term objective within several more weeks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Powell Trying to Tame the Runaway Bull?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/21 In our trading plans for Fri. 06/16, we wrote: "The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead". This has played out as anticipated with yesterday's consolidation. It appears gaining traction with Powell's comments about inflation and interest rates this morning. The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in last Thursday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead, while also cautious about continued short squeezes off of any fresh shorts drawn in by the prints higher in the "new bull market". By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4390, 4379, 4368, or 4357 with an 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4385, 4376, 4364, or 4354 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
3
Bottom targets if moving downBased on the theory the market has topped, the following is what we should roughly see next. There is still a chance Cycle B is not completed and I will outline what that could look like later this week or next. A few of those theories have us in only Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave C of Cycle wave B up with the next possible market top around 4631. However, Intermediate wave 4 would bottom no lower than 4387, which it did on June 20th. Another theory for a long and drawn up Supercycle wave 2 would put the market in Intermediate wave 2 up in the early stages of Primary wave A down. This would be the case if Supercycle wave 2 were to trickle downward for 5+ years. For now we will stick with the beginning of Cycle wave C down. Position: Submillennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle 5, Supercycle 2, Cycle C, Primary A Heading: Downward Shorthand wave reference: 152CA. Cycle was C will also end Supercycle wave 2 so we will forecast what wave 2 could do based on the completion of Supercycle wave 1 and the relational history of waves ending in 152. I have Supercycle wave 1 beginning in March 2009 and ending January 2022. This saw the market gain 4,151.83 points over 3,252 trading days for a rise over run of 1.277. Based on these figures and waves ending in 152, Supercycle wave 2 could retrace the total points at the following quartile levels (light blue lines in the chart below). The first quartile of all movement would be at 25.37%, the median movement of all historical data is 45.71%, while the third quartile of historical retracements is at 75.67%. Based on the same wave data, the most model agreement is in Supercycle wave 2 lasting 1,626 trading days. Second most model agreement is on 4,878 trading days, while third is a large tie at 469, 813, 929, 976, 1,084, and 1,158 trading days. Based on a broader dataset for waves ending in 52, the movement quartiles (yellow levels below) are 33.43%, 50.17%, & 68.96%. The models agree the most on a length of 1,626 trading days in length, second is 3,252, third is 813, fourth is 1,084, fifth is a tie at 542, 765, 929, & 1,445. A general point of reference for those dates is: 469: November 15, 2023 765: January 20, 2025 813: March 27, 2025 929: September 1, 2025 976: November 10, 2025 1084: April 6, 2026 1158: July 20, 2026 1626: May 8, 2028 4878: October 1, 2040 On very rare occasions, a macro wave 2 exceeds the length of the preceding wave 1. This would likely take anything over 3,252 days off the table. Macro second waves tend to retrace between 38.6%-57.43% of the prior wave 1’s movement. This would place the bottom between 2434.22-3216.01. Here is the chart solely based on Supercycle wave 1’s data: My initial forecast would place the market bottom around 2740 by mid-September 2024. All retracement levels are on the main chart with labels on the right side. ========+++++++++++========+++++++++++======== Here are the stats using the data from completed Cycle wave A and possible completion of Cycle wave B: Wave A lost 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days for a rise over run of 6.805. Wave B gained 956.89 points over 168 trading days for a rise over run of 5.696. This was 86.15% of the duration of wave A and a 72.11% retracement of wave A’s movement. Based on waves ending in 152C, Cycle wave C could extend the following quartile levels (light blue labels on left side of main chart) of Cycle wave A’s movement—93.53%, 126.25%, & 139.10%. Of note, the longest historical movement extension was only 149.86% of wave A’s movement. The models do not show strong agreement on any lengths, however, a grouping between 312-336 trading days was noted. Based on a slightly broader set of data for waves ending in 52C, quartile levels (yellow lines) are 96.12%, 138.69%, & 144.22%. Once again, the maximum extension is 149.86%. The models agree on duration of 195, 224, and 336 trading days. There are zero levels of secondary model agreement, however, there is large grouping between 106-130 and other groupings at 162-168, 312-317, and 390-392. Lastly, based on the broadest dataset is waves ending in 2C. The quartile levels (white lines) are 109.83%, 132.02%, & 154.44%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 168 and 195 trading days, secondary agreement at 98 days, third at 224, 292, and 390. The days for reference are: 98: November 6, 2023 112: November 27, 2023 168: February 16, 2024 195: March 27, 2024 224: May 8, 2024 292: August 15, 2024 312: Friday, September 13, 2024 336: October 17, 2024 390: January 3, 2025 These ranges introduce many possibilities. There is a downward trendline that had been providing resistance during Cycle wave A, that may provide resistance during the next downtrend. After reviewing all of the above data and finding intersection points with the trendline I am monitoring the following targets for now. If the bottom is November 27, 2023, the target may be around 3361. If the bottom is May 8, 2024, the target could be 2972.71. The targets thereafter are beyond the 149.86% threshold which has proven consistent thus far. A breach is always possible which would open the door to more targets of 2769 by August 15, 2024 and 2735 by September 13, 2024. The other targets lack intersection at this time. These are the initial estimates moving forward and continuing under the assumption the market has indeed topped at 4448. I will later map out the 5 wave structure to these bottoms to see which ones line up with current movement and additionally identify where we could move if we break above 4448 within the next 15 trading days. The best confirmation right now of us being in Cycle wave C and the final downward slope would be a break below 4048.28 before a move above 4448.47. The first level broken will confirm the next step.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
SBUX is now bouncing of a potential support zone - weeklyThe weekly timeframe shows, that the price of this stock is bouncing of a support zone. It forms from previous bounces from this zone as shown in the chart. Besides that, we have a bullish engulfing candle last week. So there is a potential buy opportunity with a 2:1 Risk-Reward-Ratio to the upside. Enter: 101,87 StopLoss: 95,38 TakeProfit: 113,9 have a great week! Best regards Tradinguny FYI: No financial advice or consulting. It is only my view on the stock and is for entertainment and education purposes only!
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by GuennyFinance
S&P 500, 6/20/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.   On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months. - For Tuesday, 4451.75 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 4606.50 remains 2 - 3 week objective.   Upside Tuesday, 2522.50 can contain session strength, while closing above 4522.50 should yield 4606.50 by the end of next week, able to contain buying through July.   Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4451.75 allows 4404.25 intraday, able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for indicating a good weekly high, 4299.50 then expected by the end of next week, where the market can place a weekly low, possibly into later July trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Nasdaq100 Big Picture Short Monthly ResistanceNasdaq100 Big Picture Short Monthly Resistance: First, there is now big and strong Resistance and I expect the price imminently to drop under 14,500, if you look at the highs of months 2-3-4 of 2022, we are there now + the trend line of the 2 must-high prices at top. Second, the price structure of the last Rally that we see now should make a down movement now according to the history of this symbol and how he acts. Even if he gonna do a new high first and from here a down movement should come. Also dont forget the Fed says that by the end of the year, he expected a recession. There are few options to out in a profit, see photo. the less risky one is to close 90% on take profit 1 and move stop loss to zero.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by StudyWallStreet
1
Bull Consolidation Ahead of the Holiday-shortened Next WeekS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/16 The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead. Weekly options expirations could be playing another factor today. The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in yesterday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead, while also cautious about continued short squeezes off of any fresh shorts drawn in by the prints higher in the "new bull market". By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4442, 4420, or 4400 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4439, 4414, or 4394 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4420, and short exits on a break above 4343 or 4383. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Markets Calling the "Hawkish" Bluff of Powell?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 06/15 The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in yesterday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for THU. 06/15: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4425, 4400, 4392, 4475, or 4361 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4397, 4389, 4371, 4358, or 4337 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4420, and short exits on a break above 4343 or 4383. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAICorp
FOMC Decision - Hawkish Pause! Back to the Basics?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/14 Our trading plans published yesterday mentioned: "...our models are flashing potential for a bull trap ahead, possibly once the "fed pause" becomes official tomorrow". Today's FOMC decision is a "hawkish pause", giving an open case to be made for both the bulls and the bears, as expected. With this in the rear view mirror now, expect some choppiness to prevail thru the 2:30pm ET press conference, and then some downside action to persist into the close unless some unexpectedly softish comments from Powell. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4310 and going long on a break above 4315, with a 45-point trailing stop. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 06/14: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4392, 4375, 4353, 4341, 4313, or 4300 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4389, 4369, 4337, 4310, or 4296 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4348 or 4320, and short exits on a break above 4325. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 02:31pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Is the rest of the market joining the rally?The weekly chart (on the bottom) shows that SPY and RSP were highly correlated until early March. After March, we have seen the two separate in YTD returns. The correlation coefficient confirms this break in trading. The breakdown in correlation between the RSP and SPY is most evident between May and June when RSP lost value and SPY gained value. In the last week, we have seen SPY clear August '22 high. For many, this confirms that a new bull market has begun. While the RSP is far from its August '22 high, we saw it break a short-term resistance level yesterday (6/13/23). The correlation coefficient is also rising back towards 1. It appears that RSP is beginning a new leg up. I believe a new leg up in the RSP confirms the Bull case for the SPY. With the Fed decision this week and both equities close to a support/resistance line, I am also watching for the invalidation of this breakout in the RSP and SPY. For me, that would be both equities closing below their near support/resistance lines.
AMEX:RSPLong
by Ronald_Ryninger
DXY: It won't happen, but if it does... 😱More than 97% of analysts say the FOMC won't raise interest rates tomorrow, but what will happen to Dollar Index, FX:EURUSD , TVC:GOLD and FRED:SP500 if Powell decides to hike interest rates by 25bp instead? Most likely, tomorrow's announcement will be our driver at least for the whole summer, because this event will have a strong impact on the market. So we just have to wait 24 hours, and we will have the verdict! ...And you? what do you think?
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker