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Markets Celebrating the Obvious? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 05/18 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoiding a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. For now, the force appears to be with the bulls, possibly aided by the squeeze of retail, leveraged shorts. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this morning's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for THU. 05/18: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4187, 4176, 4165, 4155, or 4143 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4183, 4173, 4151, or 4138 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4161. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:16am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Markets Celebrating the Obvious?!S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 05/17 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like Biden and McCarthy potentially coming close to some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoid a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this morning's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 05/17: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4165, 4153, 4132, 4102, or 4091 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4158, 4147, 4129, 4099, or 4088 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4109, and explicit short exits on a break above 4116. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:31pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Weekly Update: Do the Little Things Matter? As an analyst, I often wonder if I get too much into the weeds (so to speak) at times. In the final analysis do those tiny details even matter? When you’re both a full time trader for profit, and simultaneously an analyst who shares one’s work publicly, often times distraction and multi-tasking is the enemy of discovery. Hopefully, this is not one of those times. It’s no secret I exclusively use MACD in my analysis. To use MACD properly is to know the indicator intimately. MACD, or moving average convergence/divergence, is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of a security’s price. The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA. The result of that calculation is the MACD line or Zero-Line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD line is called the signal, which is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy or sell signals. That's probably more than you ever wanted to know about the indicator. Now in my analysis I do not use MACD as a buy/sell indicator. I exclusively use MACD as a means to guide me within my Elliott Wave analysis. In doing so I have to rely on the indicator to guide me with the following: 1. Is this an A-wave within a corrective structure, or a wave 3 within an impulsive structure? 2. Is the trend concluding or persisting? 3. Is the bottom or the top of a wave structure valid, or should I expect One More High or Low (OMH/OML). Without observing the indicator in conjunction with my Elliott Wave count, I fear I would be inaccurate in my forecasts. To say MACD is essential to my price pattern analysis is analogous to saying water is essential to life. For me, I cannot perform one without the other. However recently I noticed some very small anomalies in the indicator while analyzing price action that I hope to remember to come back and check for validity. in the above chart I notated two bottoms in price action and how the indicator reacted to both. As I track and report on each and every tick of the ES/SPX Futures, I noticed our recent breach of 4068.75 a week go to 4062.25 was not on positive divergence. Now anyone who would say I'm way to focused on a detail that in the grand scheme of things means nothing, would get no push-back from me. But is it really meaningless? Is it a clue? Is it the detail 99% of traders would miss, and in the end...is everything? Truth is...I don't know yet. Time will tell. The above chart I have manually stretched the MACD indicator, but unstretched and it clearly debatable the recent bottom may not have breached the previous MACD reading and since price has reversed, to the unobservant eye, we have what could be positive divergence. So, how do we know? To confirm this was not a mear over estimation of one's detailed orientated skills, the price action would need to follow through lower, without making a new high. Thereby confirming this MACD reading was no random reading worthy of being overlooked. RN Elliott postulated that price action is fractal across all time frames. That's interesting to me, because of this one singular MACD reading has chosen to occupy space in my brain so much that I'm now noticing the very same anolmolies in the micro patterns as well. Nonetheless, I have a tendency to think positive or negative divergence is either confirmed or it's not. In my current mind, this is not up for debate. Now maybe I am proven wrong as time goes on, but even if that happens, this would not be an unworthy study in what confirmation actually means. Therefore, I will continue to wonder, IF THE LITTLE THINGS MATTER. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
SPX: topping at 4.150The S&P500 closed lower by 0.3% as of the week end at level of 4.098. This is the second weekly decline for the index. Although big tech companies finished the week in green supported by the surge in Alphabet shares, still, the fear over potential new collapses in the banking sector are driving the investors sentiment to the down side. Regional PacWest Bancorp (PACW) announced that 9,5% of deposits flew out of the bank during the previous week. Current charts are pointing that S&P500 might have reached its top around the level of 4.150 and that it might revert a bit to the downside. The next level of watch would be 4.050 as a short-term support line. A break from this level, would open a way toward the 4.000, a 38.2% retracement of the 2022 decline. At this moment charts are not pointing that the $4.150 level might be clearly breached to the upside.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
SPX analysis and predictionIn this post I will be making some projections and will also try to walk through the thought process to make those projections. Note: This is not Finacial Advice these projections are just some calculations based on the data we have currently, if the data changes, projections are likely to not play out. I am sure many of you might have already seen this rising wedge pattern on the chart on Weekly timeframe suggesting a drop in price over the coming weeks. But the thing with patterns is that they are subjective, and based on what your bias is you may see only certain types of patterns on the chart, that's why it important to remain neutral and look at the data objectively from all perspectives. Here are some other patterns which we can draw on the SPX. 1. Ascending Triangle about to break to the upside Symmetric Triangle is a pattern of indecision which is About to break to the upside So, we have three different patterns on the chart, one bullish, one bearish and one indecisive. We need a way to break the tie between patterns to find out which one has the higher probability of winning. Let's take help from indicators. I have added RSI on the weekly chart, here the picture starts to become slightly clear, we have RSI rising buy in a wedge which is a bearish structure and likely to breakdown over the coming weeks. Let's Zoom in a bit get a clearer picture, here is the chart on Daily TF I have added all the bearish divergences I see. Based on above analysis, the picture is becoming clearer, we have one bullish, one bearish pattern on the chart, but we also have one bearish pattern on RSI and several bearish divergences which makes probabilities in the favor of bearish pattern playing out higher. Now if we look at all the patterns, except the bearish pattern all other patterns have run out of room and are about to break out to the bullish side, which can create turbulences in the execution of the bearish patterns over coming days and weeks, but the divergences are in front of us ,there less and less people willing to buy at these levels , so if we start to move up a bit its likely to fall down fast. Now that we have established that the probability is higher for bearish side to play out let's make some measurements for targets. I have trend-based fib time to help us with times when the Pivots are likely to form, based on the theory pivots are likely to form, including and between .382 and .618 projections of the trend. I have also added two measurements of the Falling wedges we have one in green and another one in blue, the green measurement of green wedge falls at a remarkably interesting time (19th of June) and 5 days before that we have FOMC events which are known to create pivots. I have also added a trend line from the top which caught the previous bottom and the green measured move falls perfectly on that line. Now if the line holds, I am expecting only a temporary relief, and continuation downwards towards the second measured move due to the wedge in color blue. I have added two harmonic Structure which appear on both weekly and Daily Timeframes for the longer term measured move. PRZ of these structures falls precisely close to the measured move and the red trendline intersections. Now that we have long term movement captured, let's look at short term movements. We are forming a diamond pattern on Daily TF, this pattern has 50/50 change to break to either side, but if this pattern is formed after a move up, the probability is slightly higher for a break to the downside. I have added measured moves and tried to match it with the larger pattern (disjoint channel), this move intersection with time is also an interesting one as it falls on the weekend of 9th June and on the first day of next week ( 13th June ) we have CPI release. If you like my content, then please boost and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by zakoraio
2
Markets Indecisive on the Next Leg for NowS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 05/12 Other than the simmering regional bank crisis concerns whipsawing between the sentiments of relief and concern, there does not appear to be much for the markets to go by these days. The depressed VIX could be pointing to potential complacency in the markets that could unravel in the coming weeks to either side. Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside - we might see a confirmation in the next few days. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are waiting for the tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears to show some signs of strength on either side. For now, the models are in an indeterminate mode and indicate no positional trading plans for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for FRI. 05/12: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4160, 4144, 4130, or 4119 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4137, 4128, or 4117 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4157 or 4141. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #cpi, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Post-CPI Bullish Spike Needs Confirmation from PPI TomorrowS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 05/10 As we wrote in our published Trading Plans yesterday, "The CPI and the PPI releases this week are likely going to make investors contemplating over the basics of the markets - economy, inflation, interest rates, and, maybe, freshly obsess over potential recession.". The post-CPI market action so far is underwhelming at best - looks like the markets are waiting for a confirmation from the PPI release tomorrow. Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside - we might see a confirmation in the next few days. However, if the PPI confirms the market action post-CPI this morning, then we might be starting another bullish leg. We need to wait for the PPI tomorrow before forming any directional bias. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are waiting for the PPI release tomorrow to form a positional trading bias. For now, they are in an indeterminate mode and indicate no positional trading plans for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 05/10: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4140, 4131, 4123, 4112, or 4102 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4128, 4118, 4109, or 4097 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4136. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:31am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #cpi, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Back to the Basics: Inflation, Interest Rates, and Economic OutlS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 05/09 With the earnings noise in the rear view mirror, markets are likely to go back to the basics this week. The CPI and the PPI releases this week are likely going to make investors contemplating over the basics of the markets - economy, inflation, interest rates, and, maybe, freshly obsess over potential recession. Our published Trading Plans last Friday stated: "Our models indicate no confidence in the post-NFP spike up, and are on the sidelines for now, with no bullish bias in place yet. Bulls need to be cautious about sudden spikes lower, while bears need to be cautious against taking on any shorts prematurely.". That outlook is still valid for today. However, our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside - we might see a confirmation in the next few days. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are re-iterating early bearish signs it initially flashed a couple of weeks back. However, they indicate no specific trading plans for today. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for TUE. 05/09: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4169, 4142, 4126, or 4102 with a 10-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4163, 4123, 4097, or 4079 with a 10-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4136, and explicit short exits on a break above 4086. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #cpi, #ppi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX Swing Trade, History repeating (CPI incoming)The chart is self-explanatory, I have highlighted in the chart where we saw remarkably similar price action in the past. I have identified two different structures in the chart, a parallel channel, and a disjoint channel. We are currently trading in the disjoint channel. A disjoint channel has expanding edges which have same slopes locked in opposite directions. We entered the Current Disjoint channel from a parallel channel trending upwards which is exactly what happened in the past, the only difference is size of these channels, in past we had larger Parallel and disjoint channel compared to what we have now. The small size of channels this time indicates reduced volatility overall, which if it happens at the end of an uptrend, means we are topping out. Let's make some predictions based on this. If we look at the current price action, it is forming a bull flag (highlighted in the chart) , I have also highlighted the measured move of the flag. If the flag plays out its measured move intersects directly into the top of the disjoint channel as well as the August high. Which I believe should be the top or close to it. In case bull flag fails , and we first drop a bit then we can look at that the blue line, it is placed for 10th May CPI Day and if we move up on that day, we are still intersecting close to the August High and top of the disjoint channel. Apart from the above structures we also have a harmonic structure with its PRZ falling right onto Aug high. If you like my content then please boost and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by zakoraio
2
SPX Short Day TradeLooking at the short execution of the bearish harmonic PRZ, confluent with the .786 and 0.886 retracement of the whole move up It's a day trade. It can be a swing trade as well based one's risk capacity for Swing Trade SL is much higher at 4280. Alternate View of the chart with all the levels of interest. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned and if you like my content and would like to learn from my experience hit like and follow me for getting notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming tutorials on technical analysis and several technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to analyze any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by zakoraio
💥 WORLD ECONOMY: ...big drop is coming? 😡Amazon rarely delays deliveries, but I ordered the crystal ball over 30 years ago and it still hasn't arrived! 😢😂 ...So, I don't know what will really happen in the coming months, but what we can do right now is try to make some considerations. The chart above represents the DJ Transportation Index , an excellent "thermometer" of US economy. If we look at a monthly time frame, we see that a deep pullback appeared after a structure with "Wave 1 Extension", so we cannot exclude that it could happen again. At the same time however, we see that the Price Action has reached an important static support around 14,000, and only its failure could confirm a bearish leg with a first target around 11,000, obviously we are talking about a monthly chart, so to confirm this hypothesis, we have to wait until the end of the month. In this historical context, many things could change in global economy, and the geopolitical situation is one of the main actors of this period. Inflation, the war in Ukraine, wide social gap, the dollar crisis, are all key factors that could still lead to uncertainty in the medium term. INFLATION and THE PRICE WAR We are well aware that a large part of the developed economy is struggling with rising prices, and even if inflation in the U.S. and in Europe it is driven by different reasons, Central Banks are using the same tools (are they wrong??) of monetary policy, , but something could change in the coming months. The most important Central Bank (Federal Reserve) could face a diabolical "pincer", because the danger of hyperinflation is the same as a potential stagflation. Thanks for your attention. A.B. ❤
DJ:DJT
by TheAnonymousBanker
Wall Street Celebrating Main Street's Good News?! S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 05/05 The strong Non-Farm Payrolls number on top of what Powell had to say yesterday after the FOMC rate decision should have pushed the markets down worried about "higher rates for longer time" but the markets seem to be celebrating mainstream good news for now. The options positioning and the extremely bearish retail sentiment point to this spike up as a potential short squeeze rather than some underlying strength. Wall Street celebrating Main Street's good news gives something to be wary about! Our models indicate no confidence in the post-NFP spike up, and are on the side lines for now, with no bullish bias in place yet. Bulls need to be cautious about sudden spikes lower, while bears need to be cautious against taking on any shorts prematurely. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models, while flashing early bearish signs, indicate no trading plans for today. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for FRI. 05/05: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4136, 4122, 4102, or 4083 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4133, 4114, 4095, or 4078 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4053. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #banks, #bankingcrisis, #nonfarm, #nfp
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Monday Holds The KeyLet’s recap what was expected from . Based on specific historical wave data for waves ending in 2BC2, Intermediate 2 had quartile retracements of 33.44% (1st quartile), 60.60% (2nd quartile/Median), or 77.87% (3rd quartile). These levels are depicted on PATH TWO in the chart above. Wave 1 ended 2 days after the analysis was posted and the adjusted potential retracements respectively aligned with 4048.89, 3950.94 and 3888.67. A lower trendline which has provided support also aligned with a potential floor for the activity ranging from 3920-3960. Intermediate wave 2 was expected to last 8-12 trading days. The lowest point achieved thus far is 4049.35 from the final hour of trading on April 26. This could be the end point of Intermediate wave 2 as it was nearly consistent with the projected first quartile drop or it was the end of Minor wave A inside of Intermediate wave 2. The close on Friday has presented an interesting crossroads and an argument can be made for the short-term bear case and longer-term bull case. PATH ONE above will displays what should happen next if Intermediate wave 2 has ended. PATH TWO displays the likely end of Minor wave B inside of Intermediate wave 2 and the final leg down to conclude Minor wave C and simultaneously Intermediate wave 2. The Case For PATH ONE: Here is the likely internal wave for Intermediate wave 2: Two wave 3 indicators were present on the 30 minute chart at Minute wave 3 (green) in Minor wave A (yellow) on April 20 as well as Minuette wave 3 (orange) inside of Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave C on April 25. I like to see the “wave 3 of 3 of 3” indicator when confirming locations and April 25 displayed exactly that. Wave 3 Finder: The wave 3 indicator normally identifies all wave 3s along with the end of corrective waves (2, 4, & B). The daily chart did not provide any wave signals for a wave 3 or the correctives, however, the 2 hour and hourly charts identified the end of Intermediate wave 2. The hourly also found the wave 3s identified in the 30 minute snapshot above. This is a strong case for Intermediate wave 2 being complete. The Case For PATH TWO: Here is the likely internal waves for Minor waves A & B: The wave 3 indicators still remain in the same places although the April 20th one aligns with the end of a wave 1 which is not common. The other still highlights “a wave 3 of 3 of 3” Intermediate wave 2 would have lasted 6 days IF PATH ONE IS THE CHOSEN COURSE which is about 24% of the length of Intermediate wave 1 which was 25 trading days. Wave 2s inside of 2BC waves tend to be at least 31% the length of wave 1, however, 22% of the time they have been less. This 22% occurred in macro waves (which this is not) and consistently stayed between 18-19% of wave 1. In fact, the median wave 2 length is half that of wave 1 and the third quartile is the exact same size as wave 1 (100% length). I do not expect wave 2 to last 25 days, however, something closer to 12 always seemed possible. Although statistics and historical references are not perfect, this could indicate Intermediate wave 2 is not done yet. While walking through this analysis I can believe either one is viable, although PATH ONE may be the winner if one must be chosen at this point. WHAT SHOULD HAPPEN NEXT: PATH ONE: Based on waves ending in 2BC3, the quartile movement extensions are 110.75%, 302.37%, and 371.04%. This means the median movement could see a top for Intermediate wave 3 which is 302.37% larger than the total movement from Intermediate wave 1 which was 360.62. This highly unlikely (I feel very comfortable calling this impossible) top would be at 4899.267 which would be a new all-time high for the stock market. The models lack a majority agreement on length in terms of trading days long as they fluctuate at 17, 21, 24, and then 72 days. These data points are too wild, next data is based on waves ending in BC3. The quartile movement extensions align with 4323.64, 4691.69, and 4752.97. The trading days to reach these levels are all at or longer than Intermediate wave 1 (meaning 25 trading days or more). There is a strong resistance trendline that tops out at 4392 if Wave 3 was 31 days long. This would mean wave 3 moves very slow for only 150-200 points. Wave 3s typically have a punch and multiple large periods of upward momentum as seen the past two trading days. The past two trading days are in fact looking more like a wave B instead of the beginning of a wave 3. This schedule would also place wave 3 topping in early June and the final market top in early July. Last set of data is based on the much broader set of waves ending in C3. Most models agree on 18 or 25 days long while the first quartile of all days is at least 25 days in length. Even if the top is set to occur within 16 trading days from the close on Friday. This would be a slow gain of 180-230 points over 3.5 weeks with the Fed and a CPI reading (May 10) in the middle of it which is likely market moving events capable of gains of 50-100 points in a single day. PATH TWO: Based on waves ending in C2C, the quartile movement extensions (light blue levels on the left side of the right chart) are 100.27%, 113.095%, and 132.02%. This would mean the first quartile movement of Minor wave C inside of Intermediate wave 2 would be 100.27% of Minor wave A’s movement. Basically, Minor wave C could end just below the Minor wave A bottom of 4049.35. The models strongly agree Minor wave C could last 3-6 days (day 1 would be this Monday and day 3 would be when the Fed speaks on Wednesday). Based on waves ending in 2C, the movement extensions (yellow levels) are 110.45%, 133.13%, and 154.44% and strongest model agreement is at 3 days in length. The bottom of Intermediate wave 2 would likely be around 4000 at the lowest instead of 3950 as originally projected. This would push the end of Intermediate 3 into early- to mid-June and the final market top to mid-July (which aligns better to most probable debt ceiling crisis as the catalyst for the projected major market downturn greater than 1800 points) FINAL ANALYSIS: There are zero powerful economic reports prior to the Fed that would drop the market 100-200 points from Friday’s close before the Fed speaks on Wednesday. Short of a geopolitical event over the weekend (Iran and the world’s oil supply / China / North Korean shenanigans / Russia-Ukraine war), PATH ONE is the most likely. PATH TWO appears the most likely ONLY because the anticipated wave 3 is far ahead of where it should be per PATH ONE analysis if the top is only 150-200 points away from Friday’s close and spread out over 6 trading weeks. The levels and length for Intermediate wave 3 does not change no matter what wave 2 did. However, a bottom for Intermediate wave 2 around 4000 which occurs within the next 3 trading days would give Intermediate wave 3 nearly 350-400 points to gain over 5-6 trading weeks which is much more reasonable
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
It's All About the Regional Banks Now!S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 05/04 While the FOMC and Powell could not scare the markets enough yesterday, the Regional Banks are accomplishing that and some! With the KBW Regional Banking Index is now flirting with the 2020 Covid-19 lows. And, it is May (the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage on the street, and in academic research)! Looks like a scary recipe for the bulls, at least for now. Our models indicate no clear trend emerging until after the session close. Bulls need to be cautious about sudden spikes lower, while bears need to be cautious against taking on any shorts prematurely. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models, while flashing early bearish signs, indicate no trading plans for today. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for THU. 05/04: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4136, 4118, 4102, 4083, 4057, or 4050 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4133, 4113, 4095, 4078, or 4048 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4053. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:45am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fed, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #bigtech, #earnings, #FOMC
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom