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CONSOLIDATION NEARING ITS END!The SP500 is in long consolidation and it looks like it is near to its end. I am considering two scenarios: 1. After debt ceiling deal – when they increase debt limit – the price will break up as a bull trap and will bounce from the next resistance. It will fuel the price to push to the targets – near pandemic bottoms. 2. The price, after the deal, will do correction of last decline and will continue to drop till meet the targets.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Manticore_Investments
Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets - Day 3S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 05/24 We started this trading week with our trading plans on Monday titled: "Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the Markets", and these words: "Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the dust settles". Third day into the week, those indications from our models have played out to the letter! Thank you for our loyal readers who have reached out with words of appreciation! We strive to share what we see through the lens of our models, regardless of what the markets might appear to be doing - some days we hit the nail on the head, and some we might miss the nail altogether, but overall our goal is to help our loyal followers gain alpha in their trading performance paralleling that which is being demonstrated since 2018, Dec in our models' performance history. Let your outperformance not lead to overconfidence, though, for overconfidence is shown to be one of the biggest enemies of even the best traders. Our stance last few weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". With the debt ceiling drama in high gear, expect the market volatility to continue to increase. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models have initiated the following standing trading plan exactly one week back, on Wed 05/17: "indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187". This trading plan was triggered at yesterday's close, and now our positional models are short SPX at 4146.33 with a hard stop at 4187 as indicated in our results last night. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 05/24: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4162, 4150, 4131, 4113, or 4103 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4157, 4141, 4126, or 4109 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4098 with a 6-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4145, and short exits on a break above 4145. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:46pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
SP500 Makes "Failure" Break Higher; Now Short-term Weakness SP500 is making a sharp reversal, so it appears it was failure break higher after that overcrowded trade when everyone expected 4200 to be a major breakout point for the bull run. We also see USD still in bullish mode which can extend gains much higher now if stocks will be in risk-off mode. Looking at the SP500 price action, we see price falling below the trendline support so it seems that five wave rise from the March low is finished and that minimum three wave drop is in play. Big important level can be 4060/4070 which has been retested a few times in the last two months. Below that we have 4k, near 61.8% Fib.
CME_MINI:ESM2023
by ew-forecast
SPY Order Flow - Script Fires Rare Signals Of Buying FatigueHey traders, Brace yourself for today's short and sweet insights on the use of the OFA script. So, SPY has been levitating around the year highs... However, as order flow traders, we don't marry to the long bias if the script sends the opposite signals. What we care about is looking for the hidden signals not easily visible on a clean chart By adding the OFA script, you could have called the back-to-back exhaustions, signaled via the DIAMOND patterns. If then you applied my prop entry signal (around structure breakouts), it would have offered a very respectable risk reward... Remember, when using the OFA script, it comes with highly accurate signals that, at its core, apply 2 main areas of study: Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude? Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
AMEX:SPY
by FlowState
2
Debt Ceiling Deadline Likely to Whipsaw the MarketsS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 05/22 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoiding a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. For now, the force appears to be with the bulls, possibly aided by the squeeze of retail, leveraged shorts. Expect the approaching debt ceiling deadline to attract both bulls and bears to heightened speculation, resulting in some whipsaw movements until the deadline passes and the dust settles. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this week's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for MON. 05/22: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4212, 4201, 4186, 4177, or 4165 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4205, 4198, 4183, 4173, or 4161 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4208, and short exits on a break above 4209. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:31am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
S&p500 Golden Swing Opportunity We are in a very crucial zone in terms of time and price on Sp500 right now and people who make the right decisions will make money. But to make the right decisions you must look at the data and filter out all the noise and be patient. I have presented my case for incoming selloff a few times before and now it's all coming together. I have provided the links to my previous posts below, please go over them to get the full picture. I am building shorts in 4185 to 4230 Area and there are several reasons for that. Technical Reasons: 1. On the chart I have a large parallel channel. Currently the price is hovering near the top edge of the channel. This itself is a reason to look for shorts here. 2. Chart also has an indicator which shows 9 count sell signals as per TD sequential method. Notice what happened last time when the price was near the top of the channel. We got two consecutive nine count sell signals and as soon as price hit the top of the channel multi month sell off began. We have something remarkably similar going on right now. 3. Last time when we were near the top of the channel, we had bear divs on RSI and Money flow, we have them now as well. 4. We have harmonics ratios providing heavy resistance from 4214 region and upwards. 5. Another thing to notice is 4300 is 61.8 retracement level of the move from the top, That's another reason to build shorts here, one should not wait for 4300 to be hit to build short, as its absolute top and may not get hit due to other factors I mentioned above. If we begin the selloff in the coming weeks, we are looking at a possible 30% drop from current levels, in the next 3 to 4 months. I have provided these targets and measures based on past price action from top of the channel to the bottom, this of course is not going to be 100% accurate can change based on future market moving events. We also have below confluences for targets motioned in the chart above: June 14th We have Fed event, and SPX has been moving in the highlighted disjoint channel for a while so if we intersect 14th June with the channel we get the max upside and downside targets. Fundamental reasons: 1. The Fed's actions to raise interest rates are likely to slow the economy, which will lead to a recession. The Fed has said repeatedly they will continue to raise rates to bring down inflation to the target goal of 2% which is not yet achieved so no rate pauses as institutions and new media like people to believe. 2. Debt Ceiling battle: With no resolution in sight, the uncertainties surrounding this event could be the trigger to start the selloff although I am not discounting the possibility of a manipulative rally to 4300 which is a fantastic opportunity to build shorts. 2.1 If there is no resolution on this topic and US defaults everyone knows what will happen , so, until that is resolved all the contrarian traders should be extremely cautious. If you like my content, then please boost, and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by zakoraio
2
Powell to Help Set Some Direction Today?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 05/19 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoiding a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. For now, the force appears to be with the bulls, possibly aided by the squeeze of retail, leveraged shorts. Markets would be trying to split the hair and parse every word from Powell's speech today to desperately gain some sense of direction. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this week's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for FRI. 05/19: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4212, 4205, 4198, 4186, 4177, or 4165 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4194, 4183, 4173, or 4161 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4208 or 4101. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling, #powellspeech, #powell
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
$SPX looks like it wants to keep goingWith the TVC:VIX breaking the symmetrical triangle, see previous post, to the downside we're seeing high levels of complacency. Much of this doesn't make sense but we've been saying for the longest times that markets are IRRATIONAL! With #SPX breaking we could very well see a bigger push and faster. At the moment they are saying it's just a handful of companies leading, while there is truth in that, equal weight indices are beginning to push higher.
SP:SPX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Markets Celebrating the Obvious? Day 2S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 05/18 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoiding a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. For now, the force appears to be with the bulls, possibly aided by the squeeze of retail, leveraged shorts. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this morning's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for THU. 05/18: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4187, 4176, 4165, 4155, or 4143 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4183, 4173, 4151, or 4138 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4161. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:16am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Markets Celebrating the Obvious?!S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 05/17 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like Biden and McCarthy potentially coming close to some kind of agreement on debt ceiling and avoid a potential U.S. default is being masqueraded as that "unexpected bullish development" (which almost everyone expected anyway). Whether this move is going to be the start of the next leg up or to be a classic pump-and-dump remains to be seen. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flashing a potential bull trap ahead if this morning's move up proves unsustainable. Models indicate going short at the close if today's close is to be below 4147 (activated at 3:59pm). If opened a short, models indicate instituting a hard stop at 4187. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 05/17: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4165, 4153, 4132, 4102, or 4091 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4158, 4147, 4129, 4099, or 4088 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4109, and explicit short exits on a break above 4116. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:31pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #regionalbanks, #debtceiling
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Weekly Update: Do the Little Things Matter? As an analyst, I often wonder if I get too much into the weeds (so to speak) at times. In the final analysis do those tiny details even matter? When you’re both a full time trader for profit, and simultaneously an analyst who shares one’s work publicly, often times distraction and multi-tasking is the enemy of discovery. Hopefully, this is not one of those times. It’s no secret I exclusively use MACD in my analysis. To use MACD properly is to know the indicator intimately. MACD, or moving average convergence/divergence, is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of a security’s price. The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA. The result of that calculation is the MACD line or Zero-Line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD line is called the signal, which is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy or sell signals. That's probably more than you ever wanted to know about the indicator. Now in my analysis I do not use MACD as a buy/sell indicator. I exclusively use MACD as a means to guide me within my Elliott Wave analysis. In doing so I have to rely on the indicator to guide me with the following: 1. Is this an A-wave within a corrective structure, or a wave 3 within an impulsive structure? 2. Is the trend concluding or persisting? 3. Is the bottom or the top of a wave structure valid, or should I expect One More High or Low (OMH/OML). Without observing the indicator in conjunction with my Elliott Wave count, I fear I would be inaccurate in my forecasts. To say MACD is essential to my price pattern analysis is analogous to saying water is essential to life. For me, I cannot perform one without the other. However recently I noticed some very small anomalies in the indicator while analyzing price action that I hope to remember to come back and check for validity. in the above chart I notated two bottoms in price action and how the indicator reacted to both. As I track and report on each and every tick of the ES/SPX Futures, I noticed our recent breach of 4068.75 a week go to 4062.25 was not on positive divergence. Now anyone who would say I'm way to focused on a detail that in the grand scheme of things means nothing, would get no push-back from me. But is it really meaningless? Is it a clue? Is it the detail 99% of traders would miss, and in the end...is everything? Truth is...I don't know yet. Time will tell. The above chart I have manually stretched the MACD indicator, but unstretched and it clearly debatable the recent bottom may not have breached the previous MACD reading and since price has reversed, to the unobservant eye, we have what could be positive divergence. So, how do we know? To confirm this was not a mear over estimation of one's detailed orientated skills, the price action would need to follow through lower, without making a new high. Thereby confirming this MACD reading was no random reading worthy of being overlooked. RN Elliott postulated that price action is fractal across all time frames. That's interesting to me, because of this one singular MACD reading has chosen to occupy space in my brain so much that I'm now noticing the very same anolmolies in the micro patterns as well. Nonetheless, I have a tendency to think positive or negative divergence is either confirmed or it's not. In my current mind, this is not up for debate. Now maybe I am proven wrong as time goes on, but even if that happens, this would not be an unworthy study in what confirmation actually means. Therefore, I will continue to wonder, IF THE LITTLE THINGS MATTER. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
SPX: topping at 4.150The S&P500 closed lower by 0.3% as of the week end at level of 4.098. This is the second weekly decline for the index. Although big tech companies finished the week in green supported by the surge in Alphabet shares, still, the fear over potential new collapses in the banking sector are driving the investors sentiment to the down side. Regional PacWest Bancorp (PACW) announced that 9,5% of deposits flew out of the bank during the previous week. Current charts are pointing that S&P500 might have reached its top around the level of 4.150 and that it might revert a bit to the downside. The next level of watch would be 4.050 as a short-term support line. A break from this level, would open a way toward the 4.000, a 38.2% retracement of the 2022 decline. At this moment charts are not pointing that the $4.150 level might be clearly breached to the upside.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX