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S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Bitcoin - Resistance Before EarningsThe S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Indexes, and Bitcoin cryptocurrency have all reached a Resistance Price Level Zone in April 2023. USA Stock Market Season for Q1 2023 officially began on 04/14/2023. If the majority of Stock Earnings are good, the price of all 4 assets could breakout above to test previous 2022 high prices (August & April 2022). However, if the majority of Stock Earnings are bad, the price of all 4 assets could breakdown and fall back to July & October 2022 low prices. Finally, on a positive note for perspective: the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Indexes and Bitcoin are all well above their pre-pandemic prices (January 2020, which was the previous all-time high for the stock market).
SP:SPX
by NoFomoCharts
5 Things to Watch in the Next 2 WeeksCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Put Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Important data releases in the coming weeks would shed light on the health of the US economy and could have significant impacts on global financial markets. We will focus on a number of critical datasets, mainly the following, in the upcoming weeks: • Federal tax revenue (Tax filing deadline: April 18) • Existing home sales (April 20) • Personal income and outlay (April 28) • Fed rate hike, or the lack of it (May 3) • Gasoline price trend (before peak summer driving season) Federal Tax Revenue According to the US Treasury Department, the sources of tax revenue for US federal government in 2021 were: • Individual taxes: 42.1% • Social insurance taxes: 23.8% • Consumption taxes: 16.6% • Property taxes: 11.4% • Corporate taxes: 6.0% The annual tax filing deadline for individual and corporation is April 18th. In practice, income tax, social security and Medicare are withheld from each paycheck for employees. Corporations pay estimated tax on a monthly basis. Property taxes are assessed annually. Sales tax is paid whenever you buy products or services. Tax filing is a process where taxpayers calculate tax liability and claim tax credit. If you’ve paid too much, ask for a refund. If you didn’t pay enough, send Uncle Sam a check. We could track government tax revenue and expenditure using the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) data published by the Treasury Department. Here are what I found: • In the first three months of 2023, gross tax revenue is $2.268 trillion, while tax refund amounts to $219.8 billion; The resulting net tax receipts are $2.048 trillion; • Comparing to Q1 2022, gross tax revenue is down 0.2%, but tax refunds are up big time by 45.8%. Net tax receipts are down 3.5% year-over-year; • Q1 individual income taxes $1.22 trillion, tax refunds $192.4 billion and net tax receipts $1.03 trillion; Y/Y changes are -1.9%, +59% and -8.5%, respectively; • Q1 corporate income taxes (in billions) $159.0, refunds $19.0, and net tax receipts $140.0; Y/Y changes are +5.1%, -20.7% and +10.0%, respectively; Individual taxes are the most important revenue source for the United States. A declining tax receipt would push the federal budget deeper in the red. But with unemployment at record low and wages on the rise, why is income tax revenue going down? In 2020, the top 1% of income earners earned 22% of all income and paid 42% of all federal income taxes – more than the bottom 90% combined (37%). For the top earners, most of their income taxes come from capital gain, not from wages. In 2021, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 18.7% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 had annual returns of approximately 27%. I examine the MTS data for April 2022, which covered the tax filing period for year 2021. Net income tax receipt was $1.72 trillion, up 68.5% y/y. This shows positive correlation between stock market gains and growth in individual income tax revenue. In 2022, the Dow declined 8.8%, while S&P and Nasdaq were down 19.4% and 33.0%, respectively. The individual income tax in Q1 2023 was down 1.9%, but tax refund was up 59%. This again shows positive correlation – stock market losses and decline in income tax revenue. March MTS data strongly indicates that investors are writing off big capital losses from last year. When the tax season is over, I expect to see bigger tax refund and widening net receipt shortfall in the April MTS data vs same period in 2022. Implications: Urgency for Debt Ceiling Negotiation In January, in a letter addressed to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned the US has once again reached its debt limit. The Treasury Department started taking extraordinary measures to keep paying the federal government’s bills, but it would suspend new investments until June 5, 2023. Yellen warned both moves are subject to “considerable uncertainty” if Congress does not pass the bill to increase the debt ceiling. US financials have deteriorated since. According to USDebtClock.org: • US National Debt: $31.69 trillion • US Federal Spending: $6.03 trillion • US Federal Tax Revenue: $4.61 trillion • US Federal Budget Deficit: $1.42 trillion We now expect tax revenue to decline by at least tens of billions of dollars, while spendings on Defense, Medicare, Social Security, and Debt Interest are all going up. As a result, federal budget deficit could be underestimated by well over one hundred billion dollars. Would the federal government have enough money to keep the light on until early June? I suspect the insolvency time bomb is ticking closer and closer. Short-term Trading Strategies Although we had two rate hikes and a banking crisis in the first 100 days of 2023, major stock market indexes are all in the positive territory. The Dow gained 2.2%, S&P 500 rebounded 7.8%, and the Nasdaq pushed up 19.6% YTD. While investors managed to brush off bad news so far, balance sheet deterioration in government, corporation and household would eventually catch up. I am seeing a 5-10% correction in the S&P 500, if some of the following conditions materialize: • Federal tax revenue comes in significantly lower than expected. April MTS report would be released around May 12th; • May 3rd FOMC: If the Fed raises rates and does not signal an end of the tightening cycle, both corporate earnings and household spending would suffer; • US banks could tighten lending standards in the wake of banking crisis. This would add to higher borrowing cost on top of the rising interest rates; • Debt ceiling negotiation: if the White House and the Congress could not reach a deal quickly, we may be heading for the technical default of US government debt. Right now, they are not even sitting at the negotiating table. Options on CME E-Mini S&P 500 may be a way to express a bearish view. The E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures June contract (ESM3) is quoted 4171.75 last Friday. With a notional value of HKEX:50 x S&P 500 Index point, each contract is worth $208,587.5. Put option with a 4070 strike, which is about 100 points below market value, is quoted 76.25. To acquire one option requires an upfront premium of HKEX:3 ,812.50 (=76.25 X HKEX:50 ). Put option carries a nonlinear payoff diagram. Your loss is limited to the premium you paid, but potential gain is unlimited. Hypothetically, if the S&P futures price falls to 3900, put option will be 170 points in the money (=4070-3900). The gain on the account would be HKEX:8 ,500 for each contract. If our view proves to be incorrect and the S&P goes up instead, put premium could decline in value, resulting in a loss. The worst-case scenario is that options would expire worthless. Happy Trading. (To be continued) Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
19
Cracking the Code: Analyzing SPY Trends Across Multiple TFLets take a deep dive into the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and examine its trends across weekly, 4-hour, and 1-hour charts. Using technical analysis tools and strategies, we uncover insights into how SPY is behaving on different time scales and what that might mean for traders. Whether you're new to trading or a seasoned pro, you'll find valuable insights and actionable tips in this comprehensive analysis of SPY price action.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Entrenched
5
Relationship of the Fed interest rate + SP 500 index Logarithm. The time frame on both charts is 1 month. It is worth considering as an indicator of large market cycles in general. I will not describe it, because I have already said a lot about it before. There is a correlation, which is logical, but not always. There are also reasons for this, which I have voiced before. Expensive and cheap money - the regulation of the growth and decline of the U.S. economy (the whole world). The Fed Funds rate , is the target interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the basis of which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other for short periods (usually overnight). The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy setting body of the Federal Reserve, meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate can affect short-term rates on consumer loans and credit cards, as well as the stock market. By law, banks must maintain a reserve equal to a certain percentage of their deposits in a Federal Reserve Bank account. The amount of money a bank must keep in its account at the Fed is known as the reserve requirement and is based on a percentage of the bank's total deposits. The rate target set by the Federal Reserve is achieved through open market operations. Since the Fed cannot set the rate's exact value through such operations, the actual value may fluctuate near the target rate. The Fed Funds rate is one of the most important interest rates in the U.S. economy because it affects monetary and financial conditions, which in turn affect critical aspects of the overall economy, including employment, economic growth and inflation. SP 500 Index . S&P 500 (SPX) is a stock index whose basket includes 503 stocks of the 500 selected publicly traded companies with the largest capitalization on U.S. stock exchanges. The list belongs to and is compiled by Standard & Poor's. The index is published since March 4, 1957. Major trend (long term) SP500 index. The entire trend. 100th Anniversary Plot of the index during the "Great Depression." SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69
SP:SPX
by SpartaBTC
19
US500 - Wait for more Monday CloseON US500 I would not trade in the next few days, more information and more movement is needed because from this area it can both go up and down. In practice, I closed the day above the support but it is below the trend line (the blue one), if on Monday it does not close above the trend line and possibly confirms on Tuesday above the trend line, then in that case I would go long but in the given situation, we have to take into account that on Monday it could close below the trend area and thus it could go to the next support area down. Including the RSI shows us that it is overbought, which would be related to the resistance trend line in the downward trend.
U
by sfc95
SP500 a short term uptrend 🦐SP500 on the 4h chart after the test of the weekly support at the 3840 structure started a series of higher highs higher lows move. The price that already tested a few times the 4000 level has retraced over a previous support area exactly at the 50% retracement and is now looking for a potential break . How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for the EU market session and monitor the price action for a possible break that will possibly happen in the US session and i will look for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by InkyGrip
12
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 04/13"Inflation Peaked" Relief v/s "Recession Onset" Concern With the CPI and FOMC minutes almost confirming the cooling off of the inflation and potential "mild" recession, markets are on-and-off with the sense of relief for a day and with the sense of concern another day. The imminent earnings season should help decide which way the sentiment would settle towards. Until the earnings releases start flowing in earnest, choppy, directionless trading is to be expected. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans until otherwise published. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 04/13: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4141, 4121, 4102, 4087, or 4076 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4138, 4114, 4099, 4084, or 4070 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit exits for the day. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:16am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 04/11Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality? Day 7 In our trading plans published Tue. 04/04, we wrote: "With the quarter-end window dressing, and the new month beginning related artificial/seasonal boost to the markets behind us, the reality of the economy, inflation, and the interest rates soon to be driving the markets again. Whether it would be glass-half-full or glass-half-empty camp that leads remains to be seen. Our models indicate initial pressure to the downside.". We re-iterate the same view today, and until we change it. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans until otherwise published. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for TUE. 04/11: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4141, 4121, 4112, 4102, 4087, or 4076 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4138, 4118, 4099, 4084, or 4070 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4108, and no explicit short exits. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
The S&P 500 BottomTop of mind for investors and traders right now is whether or not the S&P 500 has reached its bottom. While this is an impossible question to answer and depends on which timeframe one is looking for a bottom, I will attempt to provide an general analysis below. First, the chart above is a quarterly chart (each candle represents a 3-month period) of the S&P 500. The pink line and shaded area represent periods of U.S. recessions as designated by data published by the Federal Reserve. The white line is the 20-period moving average. The 20-period moving average is the most commonly used reference point for the mean (average) price of the time period being analyzed. The 20-period moving average is also the mean of the Bollinger Bands, which are used to detect how over- or under-extended price is relative to its mean. GDP data suggest that we were technically in a recession in the first half of 2022. In the past 50 years, every recession has seen the S&P 500 revert down to its mean on the quarterly chart. Even the mild recession in the early 1990s, which hardly anyone remembers today, nearly tagged the mean. In fact, most recessions saw further downside movement. During the Dotcom Bust and the Great Recession the S&P 500 declined all the way to the lower Bollinger Band on the quarterly chart (as shown below). The current stagflationary period (where inflation is elevated and economic growth is low) is most similar to the stagflationary period of the 1970s. During this period, we had a series of intermittent recessions and a relatively flat stock market over a period of about a decade. As you can see in the chart below, during each recession, the S&P 500 bottomed at either the mean of the Bollinger Band or down at the lower band (on the quarterly chart). It was not until Paul Volcker sent interest rates to the moon that inflation finally ended in the early 1980s. Every yearly chart I've analyzed suggests we have entered into a period of stagflation and we will likely see higher inflation, higher unemployment, higher interest rates, and intermittent recessions for years to come. This is happening while the yearly S&P 500 Stochastic RSI oscillator is trending down sharply following more than a decade of rapid stock market expansion. So far as of writing, we have not reached the S&P 500 mean on the quarterly chart. There is an overwhelming likelihood that, at some point in the future, we will. Nonetheless, traders ought not to base their trades on slowly moving yearly charts, as even in a prolonged downturn there can be lucrative intermediate-term long opportunities. Indeed, the quarterly mean (20-period moving average) moves up over time, and when we do revert down to it, that price may be higher than the current price. Here are some other arguments for why we may have seen an intermediate-term bottom of the S&P 500 -- First, seasonality: As you can see in the seasonality chart below, the month of June often puts in the low for the year, which is sometimes retested in the August through October period (highlighted in yellow). Second, Fibonacci levels: As you can see, June's price action bounced off an important Fibonacci level. Price is also technically being supported on the third Fibonacci spiral from the Great Depression high as shown below (though this is precarious when viewed on the yearly timeframe). Third, the intermediate term oscillators are starting to create a bias of momentum to the upside as shown in the chart below. Fourth, the chart of the ticker S5TH is breaking out. The S5TH ticker simply represents the number of stocks in the S&P 500 that are above their 200 day moving average. This is extraordinarily bullish and a warning signal to those holding short positions. Fifth, there has been a clear bullish breakout of the Advance Decline Line (ADL), as shown in the chart below. The advance-decline line is a technical indicator that plots the difference between the number of advancing and declining stocks on a daily basis. The advance-decline line is used to show market sentiment, as it tells traders whether there are more stocks rising or falling. Right now it is signaling a bullish reversal. There are other bullish signals occurring as well, such as improving sentiment in the Put-Call Ratio and in the Fear-Greed Index. Although all of these indicators are turning bullish. We still need to see the VIX break down below its trend line and the dollar index (DXY) to start declining, the latter of which will likely happen. About a month ago, I questioned whether the DXY would top at its Fibonacci level, and indeed it formed an upper wick and came right back down to this level before the close of July, forming a bearish inverted hammer. There were many dollar index bulls who thought at the time that I was being ridiculous, but the charts were showing clear bearish divergence and there was very little chance that the dollar index (DXY) would blast past this important Fibonacci level while being so over-extended. I ignore all noise in the market and focus solely on what chart is saying. Charts are mathematical, statistical, and predictable. Charts also do not lie. While anything can happen, it's quite certain that the coming months and years will be quite a roller coaster. There are very few people who are prepared for the magnitude of stock market decline that could happen now that unlimited quantitative easing is no longer sustainable. I'll be posting updates along the way. Look first, then leap!
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
41
S&P 500 Index Analyze !!!S&P 500 has been moving on Ascending Channel for about 12 years😱. S&P 500 had an Impulse wave with an Extended 3rd Wave . When wave 3 is extended , we can use from Elliott Wave Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Guidelines of extended waves : 🔅 If wave 3 is extended , waves 1 and 5 are often nearly equal in magnitude and duration.= This guideline is running correctly on my chart✅ = The end of the main wave 5 (Zone): 4505 until 4182 🔅If wave 3 is extended , then wave 4 often ends at the level of sub-wave 4 of 3 and is quite shallow (retraces 23.6% – 38.2% of wave 3). This guideline is running correctly on my chart✅ 🔴 Heavy Resistance Zone : 5817 until 5348 . S&P 500 Index Analyze Timeframe 2 Weeks ( Log Scale ) ❗️ Note ❗️: I expect that S&P 500 would go down at least until the middle line of ascending Channel . Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
SP:SPXShort
by pejman_zwin
2
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 04/10Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality? Day 6 In our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 04/04, we wrote: "With the quarter-end window dressing, and the new month beginning related artificial/seasonal boost to the markets behind us, the reality of the economy, inflation, and the interest rates soon to be driving the markets again. Whether it would be glass-half-full or glass-half-empty camp that leads remains to be seen. Our models indicate initial pressure to the downside.". We re-iterate the same view today, and until we change it. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans until otherwise published.  By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 04/10: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4141, 4116, 4087, or 4077 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4138, 4099, 4084, or 4072 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4109, and explicit short exit on a break above 4093 or 4053. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Waiting for confirmations to short ES - SP500 - US500 Hello Everyone, This is my analysis about the SP500, since we're having a bad data on the PMI Services and if Friday delivers a bad interpretation of the NFP news, i want to see a retracement into the premium key levels and see in a lower timeframes a confirmation of a bearish move, then i'll proceed to short and targeting the fair value area and a lower prices. This is not a financial advice, the idea is for study purposes. In any case, it is not meant to give you a signal. This is just a way for me to read the markets.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by UnknownUnicorn35944623
1
SPX RALLY CONTINUESAll indicators are showing a continuous rally on the SPX. Despite closing lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, the index rebound in the next two trading days and almost managed to reach the opening levels from Tuesday. Both MACD and RSI are confirming the bullish trend, with MACD histogram being above zero and RSI above 50 neutral line. If this scenario continues, the price might reach levels of 4312.In the opposite scenario, as a pivot point might be viewed the price of 4000, after it new lows of 3925 might be reached. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by legacyFXofficial
THE Bear Market Bottom UpdateLast year on July 4th I published a timeline of the overall bear market cycle (Attached below in Related Ideas and titled "Theory 3 of 3 for SPX--MOST LIKELY"). This will provide an update on a chart that can be reflected on in the future by “playing the bars” for full veracity. The projection was made in early July when the market was trading at 3825 and the low at that point had been 3636.87. Market analysts were calling stating the bottom was in and the market will continue up beyond 4818. My analysis said otherwise. Some believe new market highs (above 4818) are near, while I know the hurt has not even happened yet. After the early summer of 2023, I still expect an overall decline to the end of 2024 or as late as the first quarter of 2025. The end of Cycle wave A was initially projected for October 18, 2022 with a low around 3175. The actual low was 3491 on October 13. Cycle wave B was projected to top around July 18, 2023 near 4600. With updated data, I have dropped the top for Cycle wave B to 4400 and sped up the end date to mid-June 2023. Cycle wave C’s bottom was projected for March 13, 2025 around 2400. While I still have a projected bottom at 2400, this is likely to change once Cycle wave B is complete and each Primary wave inside of Cycle C completes as well. The earlier end dates for Cycles A and B have moved the final bear market bottom toward the end of 2024 at this time. Continue to follow as we muddle through this bear market where there is always something to be gained.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
New top this week, new bottom next weekMinor wave 4 should now be over leaving Minor wave 5 and the end of Intermediate wave 1 to occur by midweek. All a strong majority of models have the top at 2-3 days which equates to a top on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. Wednesday morning is the CPI report which could be the catalyst for the next short-term market drop. The report is premarket and therefore Minor wave 5 tops before the close on Tuesday. The most specific models point to a top around 4172, although the dataset does not contain enough points of reference to ensure a strong certainty. The next set of data points to a high between 4145-4159. While the broad set of data points to a high between 4169-4229. At the very least the index should drive above Minor wave 3 which topped at 4133.13. A top around 4150 is fair and achievable over the next two days. A move above 4190 is less likely. After Intermediate wave 1 concludes, Intermediate wave 2 should push the market down for about a week, but likely less than 2 full weeks (10 trading days). If wave 1 finishes on Tuesday with a top at 4160, Intermediate wave 1 would have lasted 20 trading days and gained 351.14 points from top to bottom. The following is a projection of Intermediate wave 2 based on the estimates for the end of Intermediate wave 1. Based on historical waves ending in 2BC2, Intermediate wave 2 could last 4 or 10 days with a bottom between 3947-4042. Based on waves ending in BC2, wave 2 could last 4, 6, 10, or 11 days with a bottom 3886-3953. Lastly the broader dataset based on waves ending in C2 indicate a duration of 4-7 or 10 days with a bottom between 3852-4002. For now, I will project the bottom around 3950 over 6 trading days which would be April 19. This would mean the index gives up a little over 200 points over a week of trading. This would require an average drop of 35 points per day which this market is easily capable of completing. The day of the CPI report would likely see more than this while other days could see less or slight gains. I will continue to monitor and provide new estimates as the waves complete.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler