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Sp500index

S&P500 will be Traded within RangeThis year S&P500 will be going nowhere as it will be traded within a range of around 3400-4000 and probably will end around 3200-3800 by the end of the year. It may test lower point and may touch higher point than the given range, however it won't crash and won't spike either. The reasons for these analysis is based on Index Value Rainbow indicator above. This indicator shows multiple value of base Money Supply or Net Liquidity. For US market Net Liquidity formula is as follow: NL = FBS - (TGA + RRP) NL = Net Liquidity FBS = Fed Balance Sheet TGA = Treasury General Account RRP = Reverse Repo What happened this year is the Fed is reducing it's balance sheet by selling of their asset or doing some quantitative tightening program, which basically reduce the net liquidity value. However on the other side Treasury is also reducing it general account due to debt limit issue, which actually increasing the net liquidity. So the net value of these two opposing factors will impact S&P500 value. As a result the net liquidity will remain the same or slightly down through out the year, as the Fed has more impact than Treasury. As the result, S&P500 will be traded within a limited range. So best strategy used for this situation is swing trading strategy. Where you can buy at the bottom of the range and sell at top of the range.
SP:SPX
by danny_peanuts
Analyzing the S&P 500: Market Shows Signs of Upward MomentumAs an investor or trader, analyzing the market and making informed decisions based on that analysis is crucial. In this article, we will delve into an analysis of the market and explore a possible trade opportunity. The market is a dynamic and ever-changing entity, constantly presenting new opportunities for investors and traders alike. At the time of writing, the market is showing signs of upward momentum, and there are several reasons why this may be the case. Firstly, we have been in a downward broadening wedge pattern that has seemingly broken out. This pattern is characterized by the formation of higher highs and lower lows, which ultimately leads to a breakout in one direction. In this case, the breakout has been to the upside, which is a bullish signal. Secondly, the market has retested support and has seen an increase in bull volume heading into the weekend. This is significant as it suggests that buyers are taking control of the market and pushing prices higher. Thirdly, the current price is looking towards the next Fibonacci level above, which in this case is the 236 fib. The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers that is used to identify potential levels of support and resistance in the market. These levels are based on mathematical ratios that are derived from the Fibonacci sequence. The 236 fib is a common level of resistance that traders look out for. Based on these factors, it would seem likely that the market will continue to move upwards towards the 4300 level. However, it is important to note that this is not a guarantee, and there are always risks involved in trading. It is also worth mentioning that while the market may retest the resistance that broke prices down several times prior, this does not necessarily mean that it will break through this resistance and continue to climb to higher highs. In conclusion, the market is showing signs of upward momentum, and there may be a potential trade opportunity to go long and aim for the 4300 level. However, as with all trading decisions, it is important to consider the risks involved and to have a solid strategy in place. By analyzing the market and making informed decisions, investors and traders can navigate the ups and downs of the market and achieve their financial goals.
TVC:SPXLong
by ChartFood
2
Delayed bottom may finally arrive with CPI reportI have been waiting over a month for the reversal to finally complete. We are clearly on the path, but still need a few more things to occur to confirm that we are still in Primary wave B, but that it is near completion. IF we are still in Primary B (blue letters), we are likely in Intermediate wave C (purple letters) and Minor wave 3 (yellow numbers) was possibly completed with the with low early this morning. Next steps would be Minor wave 4 up and then Minor wave 5 down which completes the two macro waves (Intermediate and Primary) above it as well. Minor wave 4 should only last 1-2 days with a top below 4000. Target top is around 3982 by either tomorrow or Monday. We should then continue the final leg down with a drop of at least 130 points before March 16 and closer to March 14. I have use wave extensions based on historical data to attempt to determine these reversal points. The most narrow and smaller set of data is the probably Minor wave 4 retracement points. While the top could go above 4000, it most likely would not surpass 4053. The short timeline and lack of game-changing information will likely limit a powerful upside burst above 4000. The next set of extensions attempt to identify the end of Intermediate wave C based on the data for Intermediate waves A and B. This is the left most set of extensions that are at the top and bottom of the chart. Typically Intermediate wave C extends beyond 127.13% of Intermediate wave A, however, that move seems quite significant in the likely short period of time that remains. The bottom should move below 3764 which was the prior low from the end of December, but nothing more is required to closeout this wave. I am placing the lowest possible bottom around 3700 but it depends on the momentum which will be apparent by next Friday. This will continue to be evaluated The final set of extensions attempt to identify the end of Primary wave B based on the data from Primary wave A when compared to historical wave relationships. March 16th would tie the longest length relationship between a Primary wave A to Primary wave C. This also corresponds to the longer end of relationships for Intermediate wave A to Intermediate wave C. The extensions are the furthest set to the far right. In order to meet a 100% extension for Intermediate wave C, this would create around a minimum 50% retracement for Primary wave B from wave A. The extension ranges for this data are quite wide and my targeted forecast moves are around median movements which are easy targets to pick. I will re-evaluate late next week to see if Minor 4 occurred near the plan and if wave 5 had begun. Best case all of this finally occurs and we can finally end Primary wave B. A major change after the recent spat of declines would likely stem from a major event. The Fed doesn’t meet until after the 17th of March, but the CPI report is on the 14th. If the bottom occurs on or before the 14th it could be based on the set of data. A lower inflation reading could spur the rally and then the Fed confirms inflation is coming under control a week later further igniting the next rally. Primary wave C would start around 2 months later than originally predicted, but it would likely place the next market top in mid- to late-summer. I still forecast a nice top above 4400-4700 before my doom and gloom forecast which I will touch on later and can be found in my old forecasts going back almost a whole year now.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 03/02The Fed Failing to Scare Inflation Off This morning's initial jobless claims and productivity numbers show that the Fed is failing to scare off inflation, and the yields continue to rise. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders' positioning points to the potential for an upside spike. Thus, while the trend is downwards, bears need to be extremely nimble as there is a risk of sudden upside spikes due to retail stop runs by the big boys. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 03/02: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3970, 3952, or 3923  with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3949, 3939, or 3920 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 3967, and short exits on a break above 3943. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31am ET or later.
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
$SPY PUTS If we held above $400 it would signal a larger move up. Likelihood of that happening is quite low in my opinion. With a big week of low expected earnings, possible negative news coming from Powell, and many companies looking lacklustre with weak guidance, I expect that we can see a strong rejection of the $400 level. Closed one put already from $399 to $396 and will gradually re-open a few Puts for March/April expiration between $397-$399 Looking for a TP level around $370 or at the .618 fib line. Not because it would be a bottom, but a good level to take profit as we approach expiration and where we might see a possible bounce. Stop loss would be $400 as I don't expect us to head back above this level. However, if we do, the risk/reward ratio is worth it. Good luck everyone.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bishopknight
2
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 02/28Inflation and Rising Yields The rising yields and inflation concerns still a big hang over on the markets. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders' positioning indicates to a potential for upside spike. Thus, bears need to be extremely nimble as there is a risk of sudden upside spikes due to retail stop runs by the big boys. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for TUE. 02/28: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3990, 3962, or 3953  with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3987, 3970, 3958, or 3949 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 3975. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:30am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #pce
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX Bounce Target ReachedTen days ago, I wrote about a correction of the SPX back the red support zone. Now the time has come to talk about what could happen next. The correction didn't happen in the beautiful fashion i had forseen, but this still works. What i expected was a clear zigzag formation within this falling channel, but we broke the support trendline and reached the first real correction target. After that, the price shot back in the channel. From here, it is most likely that the price will go sideways, maybe in a fashion where it will touch the resistance line once again, or that the SPX is will reach the lower level of this zone, whilst staying in the channel.
SP:SPX
by FetchTeam
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 02/24Inflation Tamed Not The Inflation numbers (PCE) this morning do not bode well, especially given the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming out from the various Fed speakers. However, the increasingly bearish retail traders' positioning indicates to a potential for upside spike. Thus, bears need to be patient before striking as there is a risk of retail stop runs by the big boys. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for FRI. 02/24: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3966, 3955, or 3945 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3949 or 3943 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 3963. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:00am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #pce
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 02/23Event Risks Resolving Downwards? Our trading plans published yesterday stated: "Unless some major upside surprise, our models indicate current downtrend to pick up momentum. Longs need to be wary of the loss of upside momentum and wait for a while before dipping their toes into the longs". The FOMC-Minutes and GDP-Release events yesterday and this morning seem to be resolving to the downside, for now, after an initial pop in the markets. If the index closes in the red today, we can expect a continued down push tomorrow and into the next week. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for THU. 02/23: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4001, 3993 or 3950 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3998, 3988, 3967, or 3940 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 3972 or 3945, and explicit long exits on a break below 3947. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:36am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #fomcminutes #gdp
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 02/22FOMC Minutes and GDP To Set the Near Term Tone Yesterday's Range Breakdown to be tested today with the FOMC minutes at 2pm EST, followed by GDP release tomorrow at 8:30am EST. Unless some major upside surprise, our models indicate current downtrend to pick up momentum. Longs need to be wary of the loss of upside momentum and wait for a while before dipping their toes into the longs. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are wary of the potential volatility spikes this afternoon and tomorrow morning due to the major economic releases as mentioned above, and are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 02/22: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3941, 3993, 4020, or 4055 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4051, 4014, 3988, 3983, 3967, or 3938 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 3972 or 3955, and explicit long exits on a break below 4067. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:31pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #fomcminutes
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 02/21Range Break Downward Confirmed On the Day 10 of the consolidation theme, our trading plans published on Friday, 02/17 stated: "Today's closing action needs to stay below 4088 to confirm this bearish turn. If it is not confirmed, our models point to the risk of an upward spike, trapping the shorts. If going short, beware of a potential bear trap". We got that confirmation with a close at 4079.09 on Friday. As forecast, the index followed with a deep fall today in the morning session today - how the price action develops throughout the day and into the closing is yet to be seen, and that will determine the forecast for further price action. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are wary of today's price action and are indicating to stay on the sidelines for the day. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for TUE. 02/21: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4036 or 4011, with a 10-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4008, 4033, or 4060 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 3998. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:45am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom