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S&P500 Technical Analysis-2023Hello everyone, hope you all are doing good. Bullish Probability:(at least one or two weekly candle closes above 4100 than there is a possibility of this playing out). There is an active Bullish Divergence playing out in RSI, so there are chances S&P500 may put new high above 5k. If S&P500 put new High, then it can be a Triple Bearish Divergences, so after that it can be a massive dump of markets. In this case the 1st Bottom will be 3500, so the 2nd Bottom can be massive drop from 5k to 2000, previously S&P500 dropped its 2nd Bottom from 1580 to 670(-57%). Bearish Probability:(at least one or two Weekly candle closes below 3700 than there is a possibility of this playing out) Currently the Fractal of SnP500 looks like similar to the previous oct-2001 to july-2002 Fractal. S&P500 -> falling in a Descending parallel channel -> Breakout/Fake Out little and finally put lower low or 1st Bottom. If this plays out than RSI may fall below 30 - invalidating the current Bullish Divergences. (Sometimes Divergences get invalidated due to forceful movement of Markets). Target = around 3200 OR there is a possibility to fall on the sky Blue trendline. Thank you, please like and share, if you have any questions please comment.
SP:SPX
by nmchary
6
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 01/30The FOMC Decision Week - Day 1 With the FOMC Interest rate decision due this Wednesday, the markets may re-remember the interest rates factor. Whether the Fed's decision and the tone surprises the markets in either direction is going to determine if there would be a reversal or continuation of the recent melt-up in the markets. But, until that happens, the momentum seems to be consolidating. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models currently are in a neutral bias. Models indicate going short on the close if the daily close is below 4040, with a 35 point trailing stop and a 9-point trailing stop to trigger once the short touches 4020. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for MON. 01/30: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4051, 4044, or 4017 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4048, 4039, or 4014 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate no explicit long exits and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01 pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P 500 just 21% of stocks above their 200D MAS&P 500 vs its stocks above the 200 day MA: Bottom chart shows the S&P since 2008. The chart on top, tracks the percentage of stocks above their 200 day Moving average for stocks that make up the S&P 500 . In April of 2021, 96% of the S&P stocks traded above their 200 day MA. Currently just 21% remain above their 200 day MA. Below the 30% thresh-hold it would appear that the trend will continue lower. Between 30% and 50% the S&P could chop around in a sideways pattern for some time looking for more direction. A move back above the 50% line should see more money re entering. A move above the 70% line should indicate a return to an uptrend. A drop to 1%-5% should be an automatic buy back in from the Big Money crowd
INDEX:S5TH
by mtb1980
4
+15% Sumo LogicSumo Logic, Inc. is a cloud-based machine data analytics company focusing on security, operations and BI usecases. It provides log management and analytics services that use machine-generated big data. Sumo Logic was founded in April 2010 by ArcSight veterans Kumar Saurabh and Christian Beedgen, and is headquartered in Redwood City, California. On September 17, 2020 Sumo Logic debuted on the NASDAQ stock exchange in its initial public offering as a public company. Sumo Logic's service is powered by patent-pending Elastic Log Processing, LogReduce, and Push Analytics technologies.
SLong
by MiguelFTCurado
6
SPDR Select Sector Fund looking great for upside to $120Perfect Cup and Handle has formed with XLE. We just need to wait for the crucial breakout and close above the brim level. With moving averages, all is looking great with 7>21>200 - Green - Bullish RSI - Buy divergence >50 - Bullish Target 1 $120.00 GENERAL INFO: The SPDR Select Sector Fund is a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are managed by State Street Global Advisors. It is designed to track the performance of specific sectors of the S&P 500 index. There are 22 different funds covering sectors like Energy, Financials, Health Care, and Technology. This is available as it's a cost-efficient way for investors to gain exposure to specific sectors of the market, without buying individual stocks. This fund also gives an indication on the sentiment in general markets. Which looking at this analysis it's bullish and we can expect the markets to continue up in February. Fantastic!
AMEX:XLELong
by Timonrosso
1
Updated S&P500 chart: breakout alertOn the 3rd of January I posted this exact same chart with the general idea being that price has been incredibly cyclical for some time. It was starting to look like a higher probability of a changing trend and I explained clearly what my drivers were to make that assumption. We are now outside of the trend channel and my scenario of a 4410 target being reached is very much alive. Invalidation occurs with a drop below 3900, but a drop below 20-day MA should already be a first red flag. Until any of that happens, I remain fully invested.
SP:SPXLong
by Birdseye88
SPX outlook Q1-2023The first quarter of 2023 looks less bearish at this moment. Allow me to walk you through what I see and how I come to my conclusion. 1. There is a clear downward trend channel that started on the 4th of January 2022. That is a one-year long bearish trend. When I see such trend channels, I look for signs to see whether the trend is strengthening or weakening. 2. One of those signs is the 200-day moving average, shown here as the blue line. In a strong trend you'll see the gap between price and the blue line widening, while the opposite indicates a reverse to the mean. A hard rejection after a test of the 200DMA is usually a bearish sign, while a weaker rejection is a les bullish sign. In this case, we can spot that the rejections are getting less powerful, or the dips are at least ending more quickly. This is a mildly bullish sign. 3. There's two scenarios here. One starts with a break of the key 3900 level, which would trigger my bullish case with a breakout towards 4410. The bearish case requires a break of the 3790 level which would bring me to 3480. As you may see from the attached chart, there is a lot of symmetry in the moves and once you find the horizontal centers of the moves, you'll start noticing that tops and bottoms are quite predictable. 4. Cyclicality is also worth noticing. The time frame between the first and second low was approximately four months. The same applies to the time between the tops (3.5 to 4.5 months). The significantly lower high is like a break in the cycle and signals that volatility is reducing. This could very well be a sign of an upcoming trend change. If we defend 3790, the cycle will be disrupted and we should see the recent lows as cycle lows, which would bring us to a high of 4410 as discussed earlier. Time frame would be mid- to end-Feb. If however we break 3790, we should see a test of 3690 which then becomes the horizontal center of the cycle, with a target cycle low of 3280, possibly in the first half of February. The reduced volatility would have then been followed by a return to high volatility. Side note: the level of 3480 has been drawn as possible intermediate support. Conclusion: base scenario is bullish due to a weak rejection from the 200-day MA and reduced volatility. Bearish scenario upon a break of 3790.
SP:SPXLong
by Birdseye88
6
SPY Golden Cross formation! Its BULL TIME!!SP futures finally closing above the previous descending resistance line on the 1D chart. Combine this with the bullish indicator of the Golden Cross: 50 MA crossing the 200 MA 10 MA has already crossed the 200MA indicating at least, a short term momentum change. On the Wed - 25 Jan we also see a long bullish hammer, with a long wick down indicating huge buying pressure at the 4000 zone followed by a huge bullish candle touching the 4075s on 26 Jan. If bullish momentum continues, we can see a retest of key Resistances: 4170 & 4300
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Gold_D_Roger
SPX Review vs Wall St Cheat SheetToday I have a special chart showing the S&P 500 (SPX) on a monthly basis using the Wall St Cheat Sheet. I added in my bottom target range for this bear market cycle as well as multiple support and resistance areas, and a multi-year trend line. Once the price goes below the multi-year trend line, the Denial phase onward will begin in my opinion. This is a multi-year chart so don't expect everything to move quickly. When zooming out, the SPX looks bearish for a while. What are your opinions on this? I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: I am not the creator of the "Wall St Cheat Sheet" but it has been a wonderful tool to compare against. This chart review is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
SP:SPX
by MillionaireEconomics
2
S&P 500- Full analysis on US indexesHello traders! We are now going for a full breakdown on the situation on the two main us indexes: sp500 and nasdaq100. As per our previous sequence on post, we believe there are two possible scenarios in place. First scenario: The index is still finishing cycle correction and is in wave 3 of C pointing to new lows. This was our main scenario and will be definitely invalidated if sp500 breaks it previous high at 4136. This scenario would be still in place in the following form: However, we believe that this scenario lost quite a bit of odds and is now the least likely, given bullish smart money indicator, breakout and retest of main descending trendline sustained by volumes (look at the weekly and daily POCs) and the structure of the price action. It' s impossible to count 5 wave down from yesterday's top, the movement seems indeed corrective, while it is possible to label 5 waves to the upside on lower (hourly) time frames. Second scenario: We believe indeed that the previous second scenario has now become the most probable: it believes that we are in a correction to the upside for a primary wave (B), as labeled in the main chart of this post. The main targets for this (B) wave (ABC to the upside) are in the 4300 area, but this can extend much higher, and even transform into an impulse (or nasdaq can do a blow off top in a macro irregular flat). On the lower tf's we can see as priced retraced in the golden zone and the micro count suggest we should be in wave iii of c of C of (B). To validate this micro count, price should take off recent high at 4040. Bullish count will be definitely validated above 4136. We plan to search for long setup if we found some bullish patterns, and to start to research possible long setups on us stocks. We will publish more analysis and setup as the bull scenario gains in probability by taking out previously mentioned levels. If you have any questions or ideas, please comment. We will be glad ;)
CAPITALCOM:US500
by GMR-Capital
3
DAX vx SP500: Is DAX highly over valued?By comparing the charts of US indexes vs European indexes we usuallly find pretty much the same patterns. However there is something that really caught my attention, compare the monthly chart of sp500 vs Dax: DAX is only 6,54% from all time highs of 2022 SP500 is 15,40% from its all time highs of 2022. NASDAQ is 28,45% from it's all time highs of 2022 This difference is obviously linked to the different policies of central banks, however I wonder if such a huge difference is justified. German economy has been highly struck by energy prices and German inflation is still 8,5% vs 6,5% in the US.
EUREX:FDXM1!
by SBtrader82
S&P 500 | Fundamental AnalysisWith the S&P 500 averaging a 14.3 percent annual return over the 10-year period from early 2012 through 2021, investors were in for a nasty surprise when the broad U.S. 500 index ended 2022 down 19.4 percent. To say that pessimism is very high now would probably be an accurate assessment, as things continue to get worse because of expectations of a recession. So, what's in store for the S&P 500 this year? Will it be able to recover? That's what the smartest investors are wondering today. While it is impossible to predict how the market will behave in any given year, no matter how hard Wall Street strategists try, we can look to history to get some context. To begin with, two years in a row of negative returns for the S&P 500 is extremely rare. The last time it happened was during the dot-com crash about 20 years ago. It has happened four times since the Great Depression began in 1929. Who knows? Maybe we are now looking at two consecutive years of declines. The last time the S&P 500 experienced a decline was in 2008 when the index lost 38% of its value. The following year, it soared by 23%. Obviously, this bodes well for the outlook for 2023. However, investors should keep in mind the current macroeconomic backdrop. Inflation has been high since mid-2021, forcing the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates to suppress demand. Although the December consumer price index rose 6.5% year-over-year, continuing several months of declining growth, there is no doubt that inflation is still a big problem for the economy. Consequently, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates in 2023. Normally, this is not a favorable environment for an equity market correction. Nevertheless, the mindset of the individual investor should not change. The focus should still be on owning a diversified basket of high-quality companies that you plan to hold for the long term. The only caveat to this investing strategy now is that you may want to exclude companies that are not generating positive net income or have significant debt. That's because many growth technology stocks, for example, that fit this category perfectly, have had an absolute meltdown in the past year. And this was largely due to their deteriorating financial situation. With rising borrowing costs and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, it's better to own companies with low or zero debt and positive free cash flow (FCF). This fresh perspective is because we simply do not know what will happen next in the world or in the economy. Just look at the last three years. We had a global pandemic that brought the economic engine to a halt. Then we had massive stimulus measures, supply chain disruptions, skyrocketing inflation, and now a tightening of monetary policy. Hardly anyone could have foreseen this sequence of events. Accepting how unpredictable things really direct attention to looking at financially sound companies as opposed to the more speculative names that may show better growth. The S&P 500 may or may not recover in 2023. However, this should not be a big problem for long-term investors. What you can control should not change, which is to remain optimistic and look at the long term. Your portfolio will benefit tremendously, and you can keep your peace of mind.
ULong
by FOREXN1
6
S&P500 - Pt.6 Still looking for more downsideGood morning traders! We previously explained how in both our two main scenarios we believe S&P500 will complete the bearish wolfe wave in 3600-3650 area. We are leaning towards the scenario for which we should be in wave 3 of (C) and thus we should be directed towards a lower low. Our short positions are still in place, average entry @3990.2 and stop loss @4016 for 0.3% risk. We are also short through a put option that costed us 0.1% of equity. We will update below!
UShort
by GMR-Capital
3