S&P 500 Are we about to drop it like it's hot?Tracking our wave count for the S&P 500 we could be about to drop hard this week, with CPI reports due out on Tuesday and the Fed due to deliver another hawkish statement on Wednesday we could be entering into the wave 3 of C which will be a very sharp move and will demolish a lot of wealth in a very short space of time. We will move away from the narrative of inflation peaking and into a new narrative of inflation not dissapating as quickly as hoped. In turn the Fed will have to keep interest rates higher for longer than anticipated (which they have signalled in the past few meetings). This is likely to scare investors out of stocks and into cash, namely the dollar. The 'bullish' move up that topped on the 1st of December was just a counter trend rally (completing wave 2 of C) and was designed as such to convice traders/investors that the bottom is in and we are heading to new highs, drawing in the bulls only to swing rapidly to lows not seen since the covid crash. We feel a conservative target for this wave 3 of C would be circa 3200, a very nice 750 points of profit from current prices.
Sp500index
Amazon - Feb - Daily AnalysisBasing Candle with closing below the previous trend line which indicates - Short position.
However we need to wait & watch for the next candle for DBR or DBD.
Reasons to Go Short:
1. MACD cross over is awaiting.
2. Super trend indicates short
3. Candle closing below the previous break out line
4. Weak Demand zones
5. If 13-Feb closes below 97, then Drop based Drop is confirmed else next candle should be strong green to consider it as a drop based Rally.
Strong supply Area
Its tested once with 1:4 risk reward ratio from 114 to 97
Weak Demand Area
Might give 1:1, if this level breaks our then the target is 83.
S&P500 IN BULLISH WEDGE TO RETEST H4 BULLISH ORDER CANDLE!After the short term bullish rally above 4180, S&P500 then fell into corrective mode forming H4 bullish wedge in the process. Will this correction stays this simple "WXY" or develop into a more complex outlook in the future? For now, price is likely to retest the bullish order candle & if this is found to be strong enough, then the simple structure stands else, we might see the index decline further 39K as projected in our post of 23/01/23 shown below...
N.B!
- S&P500 price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#s&p500
#spx500
#spx
A little ugly coming our wayThis past week the bar was caught between the previous bar values which is typical of an adjustment to prices.
The result was a close for the week in the lower 40% of the bar which adjusted the previous bar to a close in the mid section of the bar, or ~41.64% of the previous weeks range. This indicated indecision of a bearish nature.
A potential test of 4007.23 - 3867.02, of which the lower section is testing the mid-December range of 3389.82 - 3746.49
Tighten your stops-losses to just below (by about .002%) this weeks low bar on anything you are trading if you have anything in profit.
This will lock your profit in and should provide you with a potential discount to buy back in after the the test completes itself.
The sectors look like as noted below:
Discretionary - Bearish
Info Tech - Neutral-Bull
Telecom - Bearish
Real Estate - Bearish
Materials - Bearish
Financials - Neutral-Bear
Industrials -Neutral
Staples - Bearish
Health Care - Bearish
Utilities - Bearish
Energy - Bullish
Keep you stop-losses tight
-PriceProphet
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 02/10Consolidation Ahead? Day 5
On the fourth day since we first published "the surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place", the index has clearly confirmed that its bullish momentum has dissipated, and our positional models have turned bearish with a short position opened.
Unless the index closes above 4100 today, our models indicate continued downward drift until some unexpectedly positive macro development shows up. If the index closes above 4100 today, then we expect the choppy consolidation to continue into the next week.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flat for now. Models indicate going short on a daily close below 4100, with a take-profit on a cross above 4065, and a trailing stop of 33 points. Models also indicate going long on a daily close above 4180 with a trailing stop of 35 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for FRI. 02/09:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4113, 4103, 4083, or 4071 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4090, 4080, or 4068 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4109 or 4098, and short exit on a break above 4093 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:01am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
S&P 500: Two Pattern to Trade in short termHi everyone!
The trend is bullish on S&P 500 (Futures), and if we try to follow US Index on intraday chart, we have two important levels: 4,189.75 and 4,098.50. Potential resistance breakout should develop a harmonic structure with Target around 4,238.50, conversely, 4,098.50 failure should trigger bearish consolidation around 4,048.00 area. Technically, both setups are high risk, so using a small size should be a good choice.
...trade with care! 👍
If you think that my analysis is useful, please...
"Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖
Cheers!
j.Hejazi | SPX500 Triangle BreakoutThe SPX500 failed to reach a new high when it hit resistance at 4160.0, forming a triangle pattern. The price has broken the ascending trend line and the 4-hour 50 moving average, and a break to the downside of the pattern at 4080.5 would confirm a new downtrend, signaling a sell with a target of 4006.0.
On the other hand, if the price breaks the pattern to the upside, we must wait for it to clear the 4186.0 level before considering buying opportunities.
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SPX Model Trading Plans for THU. 02/09Consolidation Ahead? Day 4
The surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place. The risk is still for an upside spike than for a downside draft while the index is above 4100 on a daily close basis.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flat for now. Models indicate going short on a daily close below 4100, with a take-profit on a cross above 4065, and a trailing stop of 33 points. Models also indicate going long on a daily close above 4180 with a trailing stop of 35 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for THU. 02/09:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4167, 4152, 4127, or 4103 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4163, 4147, 4123, or 4097 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit long exits and short exits on a break above 4116 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:46am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SPX also showing strong upside to come with a C&H target 4,600Cup and Handle has formed over the last few months.
We have had a break up out of the brim level and now looks like the price wants to bounce and run up further.
This is following onto the long position and update we did with the SPX a few months ago.
As traders we need to adjust course and apply new patterns as they come.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target 4,600
With the Jobs added better than expected last Friday and with the signs of an economic recovery, The US is showing strong signs of a rally.
This could be before the catalyst for the expected fall.
Regardless, I am bullish for now and the charts don't lie!
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 02/08Consolidation Ahead? Day 3
The surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place. If you are long, could be time to take some money off the table, and if you are short/wanting to go short then you might want to dip your toes but want to wait for a confirmation before stepping in more. The risk is still for an upside spike than for a downside draft while the index is above 4100 on a daily close basis.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flat for now. Models indicate going short on a daily close below 4100, with a take-profit on a cross above 4065, and a trailing stop of 33 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for WED. 02/08:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4167, 4152, or 4102 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4163, 4145, 4113, or 4097 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit long exits and short exits on a break above 4116 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
S&P 500 : Next impulse wave potentially building upUp, down or sideways in the next weeks and months? You hear all kinds of opinions from self-appointed experts about how the stock market will develop and where we are right now.
Some just make guesses and cleverly wrap it up in empty TA-worthy phrases, while others try to illuminate the market with fundamental data and key figures to gauge future price developments.
The truth is that anything can happen and every predicted development can still actually occur.
But what is probable? This is my attempt to put the current situation into perspective.
Also to be able to come back to it later and check what really happened.
Stay cool, take care.
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 02/07Consolidation Ahead? Day 2
The surge from post-FOMC last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place. If you are long, could be time to take some money off the table, and if you are short/wanting to go short then you might want to dip your toes but want to wait for a confirmation before stepping in more. The risk is still for an upside spike than for a downside draft while the index is above 4100 on a daily close basis.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flat for now. Models indicate going short on a daily close below 4100, with a take-profit on a cross above 4065, and a trailing stop of 33 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for TUE. 02/07:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4123 or 4096 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4119, 4092, or 4068 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit long exits and short exits on a break above 4073 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:35am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 02/06Consolidation Ahead?
The surge after the FOMC Wednesday and the NFP Friday last week could be consolidating a bit in the near term, unless some unexpectedly bullish macro developments take place. If you are long, could be time to take some money off the table, and if you are short/wanting to go short then you might want to dip your toes but want to wait for a confirmation before stepping in more. The risk is still for an upside spike than for a downside draft while the index is above 4100 on a daily close basis.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flat for now. Models indicate going short on a cross below 4100, with a take-profit on a cross above 4055, and with a trailing stop of 33 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for MON. 02/06:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4120 or 4103 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4117, 4100, or 4080 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit long exits and short exits on a break above 4086 for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:16am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
KEY resistance for RISK ONEquities continued its climb towards the upside earlier on last week.
However on Friday, the S&P500 posted a decline forming a bearish engulfing candlestick at the resistance level at 4181 region, potentially indicating a short term reversal for the S&P500 with first target at 4045 support.