Emini SP500 4146 target Hit, What Next?In this update we review the recent price action in the emini SP500 futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
Sp500index
SPX500 > Bullish Outlook is Very Likely if the Support HoldsThe SPX500 is trading in corrective mode ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve interest rate hike meeting, which is expected to impact the asset class' price. Currently trading at 4000, considered a crucial support level and psychological round number, the price may resume its bullish trend after a correction.
The stability of support levels at 4000 and 3990 depends on the Fed's rate decision. If rates are hiked more than 50 points, the market may turn bearish, and if support levels break, the price may retest the consolidation breakout's top. Key levels to watch include 4000 and 3990.
I would appreciate your support and opinion of this idea. Let's watch the level mentioned with an eagle eye.
SPX go BOOM?Can the SPX do a reversal pattern for the history books and leave all the bears with their pants down?
Update on our sp500 longHello Traders! Here is our update on sp500 nas100 and us30 we have reached tp1 and have collected profit from jan 27 is when we entered these trades. More setups to come cheers! With news today the market has played out perfect, remember being able to see the bigger picture is more important than small time frame trading
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 02/01The FOMC Decision Day!
No surprises in the rate decision just crossing the wires. Of course, the devil would be in the details, to be garnered from the press conference starting at 2:30pm. Nevertheless, our models are already indicating potential trading levels as below.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models are flat for now. Models indicate going short on a cross below 4039, with a take-profit on a cross above 4002, and with a trailing stop of 33 points.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for WED. 02/01:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4096, 4073, 4044, or 4017 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4068, 4039, or 4014 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4093, and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 02:16pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SPX Model Trading Plans for TUE. 01/31The FOMC Decision Week - Day 2
With the FOMC Interest rate decision due this Wednesday, the markets may re-remember the interest rates factor. Whether the Fed's decision and the tone surprises the markets in either direction is going to determine if there would be a reversal or continuation of the recent melt-up in the markets. But, until that happens, the momentum seems to be consolidating.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models went short at the close yesterday, at 4017.77 with a trailing stop of 35 points. For today, the models indicate placing a hard stop at 4053, and tightening the trailing stop to 20 points at the close.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for TUE. 01/31:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4044, 4030, or 4017 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4039, 4025, or 4014 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit long exits and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
S&P500 Technical Analysis-2023Hello everyone, hope you all are doing good.
Bullish Probability:(at least one or two weekly candle closes above 4100 than there is a possibility of this playing out).
There is an active Bullish Divergence playing out in RSI, so there are chances S&P500 may put new high above 5k.
If S&P500 put new High, then it can be a Triple Bearish Divergences, so after that it can be a massive dump of markets.
In this case the 1st Bottom will be 3500, so the 2nd Bottom can be massive drop from 5k to 2000, previously S&P500 dropped its 2nd Bottom from 1580 to 670(-57%).
Bearish Probability:(at least one or two Weekly candle closes below 3700 than there is a possibility of this playing out)
Currently the Fractal of SnP500 looks like similar to the previous oct-2001 to july-2002 Fractal.
S&P500 -> falling in a Descending parallel channel -> Breakout/Fake Out little and finally put lower low or 1st Bottom.
If this plays out than RSI may fall below 30 - invalidating the current Bullish Divergences. (Sometimes Divergences get invalidated due to forceful movement of Markets).
Target = around 3200 OR there is a possibility to fall on the sky Blue trendline.
Thank you, please like and share, if you have any questions please comment.
S&P500, Long term Price Action OutlookSP500
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
Here is an outlook on the stock market state for the year 2023 and the kind of scenarios we might have in the future.
Trade safe,
Tarder Leo.
SPX Model Trading Plans for MON. 01/30The FOMC Decision Week - Day 1
With the FOMC Interest rate decision due this Wednesday, the markets may re-remember the interest rates factor. Whether the Fed's decision and the tone surprises the markets in either direction is going to determine if there would be a reversal or continuation of the recent melt-up in the markets. But, until that happens, the momentum seems to be consolidating.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models currently are in a neutral bias. Models indicate going short on the close if the daily close is below 4040, with a 35 point trailing stop and a 9-point trailing stop to trigger once the short touches 4020.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for MON. 01/30:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4051, 4044, or 4017 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4048, 4039, or 4014 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate no explicit long exits and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 12:01 pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
S&P 500 just 21% of stocks above their 200D MAS&P 500 vs its stocks above the 200 day MA:
Bottom chart shows the S&P since 2008.
The chart on top, tracks the percentage of stocks above their 200 day Moving average for stocks that make up the S&P 500 .
In April of 2021, 96% of the S&P stocks traded above their 200 day MA. Currently just 21% remain above their 200 day MA.
Below the 30% thresh-hold it would appear that the trend will continue lower.
Between 30% and 50% the S&P could chop around in a sideways pattern for some time looking for more direction.
A move back above the 50% line should see more money re entering. A move above the 70% line should indicate a return to an uptrend.
A drop to 1%-5% should be an automatic buy back in from the Big Money crowd
+15% Sumo LogicSumo Logic, Inc. is a cloud-based machine data analytics company focusing on security, operations and BI usecases. It provides log management and analytics services that use machine-generated big data. Sumo Logic was founded in April 2010 by ArcSight veterans Kumar Saurabh and Christian Beedgen, and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.
On September 17, 2020 Sumo Logic debuted on the NASDAQ stock exchange in its initial public offering as a public company. Sumo Logic's service is powered by patent-pending Elastic Log Processing, LogReduce, and Push Analytics technologies.
Sp500 ShortLooking for a short on the sp500 from the 4125 area of interest. This will be good for me if aligned to Wednesday's news events, from here looking to hold to a modest level of 3700ish. From here can hedge etc.
SP500 - OutperformersSP500 analysis :
Outperformers :
1. Telecom
2. Consumer Durables
3. Real Estate
4. Technology
5. Finance
6. Materials
7. Energy
Underperformers :
1. Industrials
2. Utilities
3. Healthcare
4. Staples
Is S&P 500 Ready for a Rally. What Chart & PE Ratio suggest S&P 500 showing an early breakout signal. As per the Finasko.com, the current PE Ratio of S&P 500 Index is 19.88 which is below its historical Average of 22. It shows that Market is fairly valued and if price sustains above the trendline, we can expect a rally
SPDR Select Sector Fund looking great for upside to $120Perfect Cup and Handle has formed with XLE.
We just need to wait for the crucial breakout and close above the brim level.
With moving averages, all is looking great with 7>21>200 - Green - Bullish
RSI - Buy divergence >50 - Bullish
Target 1 $120.00
GENERAL INFO:
The SPDR Select Sector Fund is a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are managed by State Street Global Advisors.
It is designed to track the performance of specific sectors of the S&P 500 index. There are 22 different funds covering sectors like Energy, Financials, Health Care, and Technology.
This is available as it's a cost-efficient way for investors to gain exposure to specific sectors of the market, without buying individual stocks.
This fund also gives an indication on the sentiment in general markets. Which looking at this analysis it's bullish and we can expect the markets to continue up in February. Fantastic!
Updated S&P500 chart: breakout alertOn the 3rd of January I posted this exact same chart with the general idea being that price has been incredibly cyclical for some time. It was starting to look like a higher probability of a changing trend and I explained clearly what my drivers were to make that assumption. We are now outside of the trend channel and my scenario of a 4410 target being reached is very much alive. Invalidation occurs with a drop below 3900, but a drop below 20-day MA should already be a first red flag. Until any of that happens, I remain fully invested.
SPX outlook Q1-2023The first quarter of 2023 looks less bearish at this moment. Allow me to walk you through what I see and how I come to my conclusion.
1. There is a clear downward trend channel that started on the 4th of January 2022. That is a one-year long bearish trend. When I see such trend channels, I look for signs to see whether the trend is strengthening or weakening.
2. One of those signs is the 200-day moving average, shown here as the blue line. In a strong trend you'll see the gap between price and the blue line widening, while the opposite indicates a reverse to the mean. A hard rejection after a test of the 200DMA is usually a bearish sign, while a weaker rejection is a les bullish sign. In this case, we can spot that the rejections are getting less powerful, or the dips are at least ending more quickly. This is a mildly bullish sign.
3. There's two scenarios here. One starts with a break of the key 3900 level, which would trigger my bullish case with a breakout towards 4410. The bearish case requires a break of the 3790 level which would bring me to 3480. As you may see from the attached chart, there is a lot of symmetry in the moves and once you find the horizontal centers of the moves, you'll start noticing that tops and bottoms are quite predictable.
4. Cyclicality is also worth noticing. The time frame between the first and second low was approximately four months. The same applies to the time between the tops (3.5 to 4.5 months). The significantly lower high is like a break in the cycle and signals that volatility is reducing. This could very well be a sign of an upcoming trend change. If we defend 3790, the cycle will be disrupted and we should see the recent lows as cycle lows, which would bring us to a high of 4410 as discussed earlier. Time frame would be mid- to end-Feb. If however we break 3790, we should see a test of 3690 which then becomes the horizontal center of the cycle, with a target cycle low of 3280, possibly in the first half of February. The reduced volatility would have then been followed by a return to high volatility. Side note: the level of 3480 has been drawn as possible intermediate support.
Conclusion: base scenario is bullish due to a weak rejection from the 200-day MA and reduced volatility. Bearish scenario upon a break of 3790.
SPY Golden Cross formation! Its BULL TIME!!SP futures finally closing above the previous descending resistance line on the 1D chart.
Combine this with the bullish indicator of the Golden Cross: 50 MA crossing the 200 MA
10 MA has already crossed the 200MA indicating at least, a short term momentum change.
On the Wed - 25 Jan we also see a long bullish hammer, with a long wick down indicating huge buying pressure at the 4000 zone followed by a huge bullish candle touching the 4075s on 26 Jan.
If bullish momentum continues, we can see a retest of key Resistances:
4170 & 4300
Possible Diamond Bottom on S&P500I've been frustrated trying to figure out what the s&p500 is doing as it won't crash and won't recover. I think it might actually be forming a diamond bottom pattern: thepatternsite.com
This is a pretty accurate sign of a bottom. It's likely to fully recover, so if it starts breaking upward don't question it. Good luck!
SPX Review vs Wall St Cheat SheetToday I have a special chart showing the S&P 500 (SPX) on a monthly basis using the Wall St Cheat Sheet.
I added in my bottom target range for this bear market cycle as well as multiple support and resistance areas, and a multi-year trend line. Once the price goes below the multi-year trend line, the Denial phase onward will begin in my opinion.
This is a multi-year chart so don't expect everything to move quickly. When zooming out, the SPX looks bearish for a while.
What are your opinions on this? I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: I am not the creator of the "Wall St Cheat Sheet" but it has been a wonderful tool to compare against. This chart review is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
S&P 500- Full analysis on US indexesHello traders!
We are now going for a full breakdown on the situation on the two main us indexes: sp500 and nasdaq100.
As per our previous sequence on post, we believe there are two possible scenarios in place.
First scenario:
The index is still finishing cycle correction and is in wave 3 of C pointing to new lows.
This was our main scenario and will be definitely invalidated if sp500 breaks it previous high at 4136.
This scenario would be still in place in the following form:
However, we believe that this scenario lost quite a bit of odds and is now the least likely, given bullish smart money indicator, breakout and retest of main descending trendline sustained by volumes (look at the weekly and daily POCs) and the structure of the price action.
It' s impossible to count 5 wave down from yesterday's top, the movement seems indeed corrective, while it is possible to label 5 waves to the upside on lower (hourly) time frames.
Second scenario:
We believe indeed that the previous second scenario has now become the most probable: it believes that we are in a correction to the upside for a primary wave (B), as labeled in the main chart of this post. The main targets for this (B) wave (ABC to the upside) are in the 4300 area, but this can extend much higher, and even transform into an impulse (or nasdaq can do a blow off top in a macro irregular flat).
On the lower tf's we can see as priced retraced in the golden zone and the micro count suggest we should be in wave iii of c of C of (B).
To validate this micro count, price should take off recent high at 4040. Bullish count will be definitely validated above 4136.
We plan to search for long setup if we found some bullish patterns, and to start to research possible long setups on us stocks.
We will publish more analysis and setup as the bull scenario gains in probability by taking out previously mentioned levels.
If you have any questions or ideas, please comment. We will be glad ;)
DAX vx SP500: Is DAX highly over valued?By comparing the charts of US indexes vs European indexes we usuallly find pretty much the same patterns.
However there is something that really caught my attention, compare the monthly chart of sp500 vs Dax:
DAX is only 6,54% from all time highs of 2022
SP500 is 15,40% from its all time highs of 2022.
NASDAQ is 28,45% from it's all time highs of 2022
This difference is obviously linked to the different policies of central banks, however I wonder if such a huge difference is justified.
German economy has been highly struck by energy prices and German inflation is still 8,5% vs 6,5% in the US.
