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Our 2023 Outlook - S&P500 🔮Happy New Year traders from the team at AlgoBuddy! 🎇 2022 was a big and exciting year for us. We recently released the latest version of AlgoBuddy's flagship indicators; AlgoBuddy Premium 2.0 & AlgoBuddy Momentum, along with an ETH 30m strategy bot. 🔥 Our goal here is to always deliver helpful & actionable tools for traders to add to their trading tool belts. We'll also continue to release more tutorials and trade ideas every single week. Enough about us, let’s dive right in… 2022 was a year to remember for US equities. Bears clearly took control, as we had a strong down trend bear alert early in the year from AlgoBuddy. We had a few bear market rallies that every trader had to navigate through carefully. Managing capital, and not jumping too quick on to the bull train would have allowed you to survive. By end of year 2022, bears couldn't take us below 2021's low as the bulls defended it nicely (~3860). This is a major level that if we test again will likely fail. As of right now and moving forward, it feels that since inflation is still high, and the fed hasn't taken its foot off the breaks on the economy (interest rates), any rally is still a bear market one for me. We will continue to lean into the bear trend as seen on our weekly chart until we receive a bull alert. Even when the bull alert prints I fully expect price to capitulate and test our thick ribbon at least 2x before finding a base to rally. We recently got a divergence bullish signal on our momentum indicator so we will watch closely. I must see the fed step in and assist economic growth before I jump onto the bull train, even if I'm late to the party I can live with that. Until then, Algobuddy's S&P 2023 outlook is bearish on the weekly for at least end of Q1 2023. We will trade small on short term longs keeping stops tight, and we will jump easier on our shorter time-frame bear alerts for now until the trend changes. Good luck all, as always reach out to us for any questions/help/support. Happy trading, AlgoBuddy Team
SP:SPX
by QuantVue
4
SPX Broke bullish Now What?In the last SPX post, I started to doubt my bearish scenario of the index, by saying that the price looks bullish on the short term. Now that we've seen a short term pump to the resistance, I wanted to give an update. Right now, the upper level of the resistance zone has been touched. This begs the question: Are we going to see a break of this resistance zone. If that happens, I find it extremely likely that the resistance of the channel will break aswell. However, since we're at a resistance level, we have to be cautious about the following events. Right now i'll switch from bullish to neutral, because I want to see whats going to happen next.
SP:SPX
by FetchTeam
1
Update on current top and next bottomFollowing up on last week. Analysis said the short-term top would be 4 days according to most models. Outside chance of 9 or 11 days too. We never convincingly went down yet. The current top would be B's 9th full trading day. This would mean the CPI report may not be positive for the market as applied to the last analysis. We still need a drop of some days. A longer B would make the final C down even longer than the first projection. I don't think we bottom before CPI. This also means we must break below the original end of wave A which was 3764. We could lose 200 points this week I have plotted the Minor waves (yellow letters) inside of Intermediate B as I see them in this moment, however Minor wave C looks short at one day long (if it is indeed over). Based on historical data for waves ending in BBC I plotted the quartile movement extensions for Minor wave C based on the data in Minor wave A. The median historical movement would put the top around 3903.038 and the third quartile would be 3909.768. The current top from January 6 is between those two levels. Additionally, the potential lengths have strong agreement at 4 days, second most is 2 & 3 days, third most is 5 days, and then 1 day. The majority of models are pointing to another possible high early in the week, but based on the large movement from last Friday, Minor wave C and Intermediate B could be over. Time to clarify Intermediate wave C and the end of Primary wave B. The original levels are all still valid. My narrow call for a bottom is between 3625-3675. The only new variable to consider is the length of Intermediate wave C. Based on waves ending in 2BBC, Intermediate wave C could now last 6, 11, 18, or 26 days. Based on waves ending in BBC, the most models agree on a length of 6, 12, or 18 days. Second most is 5 days, and third most is 7-11 days long. Based on a broader dataset for waves ending in BC, most models agree on 5 and 15 days. Second ties at 12 and 18 days. Third is 4, 6 and 9 days. Fourth is 21 and 22 days. Next is 8, 10, 13, 14, 16, and 24 days. My original projection from last month was a bottom around January 25 which is 12 trading days. January 19 would be 8 days, and January 17 is 6 days. Compared to the volatility we have been experiencing and have the CPI report likely to play some roll in the drop, 12 days seem too long. With 6-8 days found as a favorite in the models, I will plan for seven days long for now. VERDICT: I am short in the short-term (to January 18), long in the medium-term (Summer 2023), and short in the longer-term (1st quarter 2025). For the bottom pending more data it is possibly around January 18 below 3650.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
SP500 headed higherSP500 appears to be headed higher. The most widely used indicators MACD, RSI and 5/20 EMA are showing bullish. Most important is the RSI, a bullish signal formed when the RSI stayed within a tight range below the 50 than retraced above the 50 level. Same time the MACD signal went positive Breakout of range Above anchored VWAP from the low RSI above 50 Anyone's guess how much higher it can go, but with current analysis, I see the previous highly range being tested.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RKchartest
💾 S&P 500 Index UpdateWe will keep it short, sweet and simple. First, the FED for whatever reason will decide to stop tightening sooner than expected or will decide to make much smaller rate hikes... For whatever reason; better for us. The SPX will move up as you see the green arrow and break the orange trendline... Not necessarily right away or maybe right away... Bottom line is we go big green by the end of the month. Everything will start to accelerate after half January and pick up speed after the third week of the month. I love you! Namaste.
SP:SPXLong
by MasterAnanda
17
I could be wrong but..Just an idea, I definitely could be wrong. everybody is talking about a 2023 recession but the sp 500 has closed 3 weeks in a row near the high of the week. Sure its in a range but 3 bullish hammer candles in a row on the weekly chart? there must be some sort of institutional buying at the 3800 level because every time we go there I see a bounce back up. I feel that a possibility that would be the against the crowd is a strong move up on equities. I feel that a move lower is kind of expected, its the consensus and as we know the market moves against the crowd most of the time. I do believe we are heading lower at some point this year but keep you guard up for a strong move up to flush out the shorts followed by a move down when its least expected. from a trading perspective I will only be bullish above 4100. i feel the likely scenario is a pop to 4050 followed by a strong move down let me know your thoughts in the comments below I do respond to all comments. have a fantastic weekend :)
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Kyle_Campbell
SP500 waiting for the NFP 🦐SP500 on the 4h chart is trading between 2 structures and today's release of the NFP data can show us some break of those levels. The main outlook remains bearish at the moment and it can be risky to trade this kind of event on the last trading day of the week. How can i approach this scenario? I will wait for a break of the support area and if that will happen i will be looking for a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by InkyGrip
2
SPX - What are they not telling us about the Interest Rate?Hello Traders and Investors. I hope you are doing well. In front of you you can see the SPX (S&P 500) chart and in white is the U.S. interest rate chart. Everyone is screaming that interest rate hikes are causing markets to fall, and there is certainly some truth to that, but just look at history. Why are we being lied to? Look closely, this is not something that bloggers who draw lines and figures on the chart show you. Raising the rate used to drive the price up, lowering the rate to drive the markets down. If the rate didn't change, the price went up. Now the interest rate goes up and the markets are in a downward movement. Where is the correlation they are talking about? The year 2023 will be the year the markets recover! Bitcoin is an asset that will bring +200% - 300% this year. All my 6 years of trading experience, knowledge, developments, and indicators I share them here in ideas for free. In return I will ask you just follow me, like this post and leave a nice comment, it will allow me to move faster and make more useful content! 💚💚💚
SP:SPX
by Yaroslav_Krasko
3
Historical buy opportunity in DisneyThe algorithm is showing Disney in a very important historical support zone. In the chart you can see the historical channel and how the price is approaching the support line. Furthermore the 80$ is a key support that if it's lost could move the price to 43$ easily because there is no other serious support or historical volume. So, by buying slightly over 80$ or even 90$ you can use a very tight stop loss and unlock a potential of 60% to the first take profits or even 120% if the prices goes back to maximum price. Right now and leaving in the first take profits, you can risk 1$ to earn at least 6$ which is a crazy risk reward ratio for any trader.
NYSE:DISLong
by TopChartPatterns
S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market LowerToday, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’. I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short). Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑 Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!) Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE) Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO) Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE) Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX) 1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊 *2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’ Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’ *2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’ Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’ 2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…* Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’ What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
SP:SPXShort
by kylemusserco
1
40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX Q - Updated 010323After a sloppy last few weeks of trading to wrap up the year-end 22', SPY closed right around the (Q4/22') SPX JPM J.P. Morgan Quarterly Collar sitting right at $3,830. Looking ahead to the month of January, we have lots of upcoming data including December Inflation CPI, Jobs Report(s)/Unemployment Data (UNRATE), Producer Price Index (PPIACO), Leading Economic Data such as the OECD Composite Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM), Upcoming Q4/22' Earnings Releases, etc., of which is seems markets are staying relatively "pinned" for the time being until this data starts hitting the markets & investors come back from the extended holiday season. Per our "40-Bar Cycle" chart, while I expect that this next down-leg in SPY SPX will likely play out as shown in the in the charts. However, do keep in mind that there are some seasonal tailwinds & also some tailwinds for markets regarding mid-term election cycles. Here is what history tells us about pre-presidential election mid-term seasonality: 🇺🇸🗳🗓 “Third year pre-presidential election is the strongest.” (Up Double Digits, Historically) Dow = 19.3% (Since 1949) Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 = 20% (Since 1949) SPY SPX ES1! Nasdaq = 29.3% (Since 1971) QQQ NQ1! Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycle Data 📊: twitter.com Election Cycles Data Explained via Twitter Space 🔊: twitter.com SPY Daily Chart Template www.tradingview.com Which camp are you in on the short-term (Q1/23') direction of markets? Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Lowering, But High Inflation aka Stagflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses). Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into Q1/23', as mid-term election/pre-presidential cycle seasonality kicks in & also as the economy proves more "strong" than many are discounting (Peak Inflation + Light Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED via Pending 'Pause' + Nominal Earnings "Resiliency"). Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
AMEX:SPY
by kylemusserco
3
1871-2022 S&P 500 Secular Bull vs. Bear Markets SPX SPY I wanted to share this chart, as a couple of things stood out when thinking about past bull & bear secular market cycles vs. the current secular bull market that we’ve been in for the last 10+ years since the 08-09’ GFC (Great Financial Crisis). First , for those who say “investors can't or shouldn’t time the markets", I very much disagree with this logic (or Wall Street marketing) as there are plenty of signals, cyclical trends, leading indicators, etc., that give investors clues as to what likely lies ahead — based on probabilities. And while nobody can be 100% certain as to the exact pathway of markets, given the macro cross-currents that are in front of us — we can 100% say that we have been & still are in a secular bull market. Until this trend changes, the “crash” that many were calling for in 22’, if not expecting for 23’ could possibly take longer to play out than many realize when looking at previous bull vs. bear secular market cycles. Second , looking at the attached chart(s), this is also why timing and duration matter. If you are entering retirement toward the latter part of a secular bull market, it might be best to reduce risk & shift from capital appreciation to capital preservation. Examples of this include leading up The Great Depression, 1950’s post-WWII boom prior to the 1970’s Stagflation Era, & into the end of the Tech Boom of the .com era leading into 2001. On the flip side, if you are in your saving years (20’s-30’s+), then it is during these secular bear markets that you really want to be accumulating & building your asset base for the next bull market phase that is likely ahead in the coming years as the trend higher always begins during the bear market bottoming process (see dotted black lines on charts). Third , looking at the current cycle & zooming in on the charts from yearly (large picture) to monthly chart — we can see that we are still technically in a secular bull market. And considering the previous two major bull market cycles of the 1950/60’s (18 years) & 1980’s up until the early 2000’s (19 years), one could make a case that we are only about halfway through this current bull cycle (9 years). Do I think this is absolutely the case? Personally , I do not as there are issues regarding demographics, de-globalization, inflation/stagflation/deflation, boomers retiring en-masse, etc., that will likely put further pressure on asset markets throughout this decade. What do you think about this historical analysis? Are we going to break this secular bull market cycle & enter a secular new bear market? Or, are are just in a corrective phase within the broader bull market cycle? CHART NOTE: Recessions = Shaded Red Areas Chart #1 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Returns Chart Data via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low: Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%. Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%. Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio. Chart #2 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Secular Highs & Lows via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #3 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Regression to Trend via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #4 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Regression Channel via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #5 (Monthly): *1920-1972* (Great Depression & Post-WWII) 📊 *Note that during the Great Depression/WWII, as Ray Dalio has pointed out in his recent book "The Changing World Order" this was a prolonged period of negative to very low returns.* 📖 www.economicprinciples.org Chart #6 (Monthly): *1972-2022* (70’s Stagflation, 80’s "Greed is Good" markets & 90’s dot.com Boom, 08’ GFC, & 2010’s QE 1/2/3, 20’ Covid Crash, & 21-22’ Inflation/Interest Rate Shock Correction) 📊 *Note that we are still in a secular bull market uptrend, when looking at the monthly charts. Until this trend breaks down, there is market support for a continuation of this trend.* Pre-Covid High = Red Dotted Line ($3,393.52) Post-Covid High = Green Dotted Line ($4,816.62) Chart #6 (Monthly): *1871-2022* (MACD) 📊
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco
3