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The Downside is Still the Dominant TrendI know that many are waiting for a Santa Claus rally this year. They may get something that resembles it, but if you are a trader there is one thing that you may need to focus on more than that potential rally. Hedge like your life depended on it. The next batch of economic data may not reflect a market that is ready to rally on to All Time Highs. In fact it may show that the global economy is weakening and two shades away from failing. So traders should use any upside as an opportunity to go short into 2023. By all means if you feel like there may be upside going into 2023, my advice would be to put a dollar toward the long side for ever 4 you put toward the short.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by D1Finance
S&P500 trades in consolidation. What is the next direction?The S&P500 traded in a range between 3800 region and 3900 region this week. This week price action played out exactly based on what we mentioned on our previous post that bearish momentum is likely to pause before heading to the 3815 region. Price rejected the 3915 resistance region before dipping lower. Any breakout confirmation of the 3915 resistance region can potentially indicate more upside movement while any breakout confirmation of the 3815 region can potentially indicate more downside movement.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TrainingTrader
SP500 looking for the 50% 🦐SP500 on the 4h chart after the expected drop has retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. The price might retest the 50% precisely at the previous support now turned resistance. How can i approach this scenario? I will be monitoring the price action around the structure and IF the market provides a sign of inversion I will consider a nice short order according to the Planctonìs strategy rules. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by InkyGrip
12
S&P500 - Up or Down? Read on, here's the answer...Imagine you set out to write a script that analyses the fall of raindrops to predict the impact location of the next drop. Will it hit to the left or right of the set line? A difficult but solvable task, it seems, isn't it? Or you write a script that tries to predict next Saturday's draw results as accurately as possible using historical data from lottery draws over the past weeks and years. You have enough information to learn from, you would think, wouldn't you? You have this feeling that everyone who has tried it before has overlooked something brilliant and instantly simple. It is possible, you just have to do it right. Is it really? Then there is this seemingly endless amount of books, theories, strategies and tools, indicators and community wisdom to make this task easier for you. So what's the problem? Well, considering everything that has been said, I think it would be logical to conclude that the S&P 500 price is about to move! Stay tuned...
FX:SPX500
by ReallyMe
2
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. * US New Residential Construction saw Building Permits for November down 11.2% from October to 1,342,000 and November Housing Starts down 0.5% from October to 1,427,000 . These numbers are reflective of an economy preparing for weakening demand as we head into 2023. US November Consumer Confidence spiked from 101.4 in November to 108.3 in December following two consecutive months of decline . This number is likely reflective of a lower CPI in November paired with expectations of continued lower inflation in 2023. Nike beat on both top and bottom 2023 Q2 estimates with its second best quarter of revenue growth in the past 10+ years , this is likely due to Black Friday sales and holiday shopping but is also reflective of a still strong US consumer. It was confirmed today by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the first transfer of the Patriot Air Defense System will be included in the most recent $1.85b aid package that the US will provide to Ukraine . Ukraine President Zelenskyy has also landed in the USA to meet with President Biden and deliver a speech to a joint session in Congress later tonight. Russia has previously declared that any Patriot Missiles supplied to Ukraine would immediately become legitimate targets of their armed forces attack . US Equities, US Equity Futures, Energy, Agriculture, DXY, HSI and N100 are up. Cryptos are mixed. Metals, GBPUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, NI225, VIX and US Treasurys are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price is currently testing the 50MA at $3875 as resistance. Volume is currently Low (high) and on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4045, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently testing the uptrend line from January 2022 at 46.5 as resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session after retesting max bottom and is currently trending up at 11, the next resistance is at 17. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing -11.45 support. ADX is currently trending down at 13.6 as Price is attempting to defend support at the 50MA, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is to reclaim support of the 50MA it will have to close above $3875 as well as recapture support at $3913 minor support . However, if Price is rejected here at the 50MA, it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from July 2021 at ~$3710 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3810.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022 SPX Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.14%, DOWN from 3.17% from last week With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 74th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.7% movement Bearish: 2.6% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 24.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 3995 BOT: 3752 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 35% probability we are going to touch previous high 4183 65% probability we are going to touch previous low 3856 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
S&P500 LOOKS GOOD HERE ON MONTHLYTwo strong technical factors are giving the S&P500 support to continue up over the long term. Bouncing off the MA200 and a direct hit of the 50% fib retrace means the downside will have a low probability going forward. Of course, macro factors could play a role in changing its course but as it stands I am fairly confident this is a one-way ticket. As mentioned above, we could see a small downside to 3700 -+ before the continuation to the upside. Of course, you should remember this could take some time as we are looking at a monthly chart, but basically, I'm saying limited downside from here and a greater percentage of upside. This would also work with economic timing and the so-called recession people are saying we are heading for, this may be so or maybe not so, but most likely more of a mild recession from an American point of view. (Other countries may not be so lucky.) So all this FUD may end just as the S&P500 wants to go up, and then you are looking at fireworks, and the timing of that is what we must look out for.
FX:SPX500Long
by danielgwatkin
SPX500 Shooting down rapidly SP500 has finally broken down the head and shoulders pattern I discussed in the previous idea , and now it's facing some resistance from a trend line descending since last Aug. Here I see two scenarios: scenario-1: opening in a gap without under the trend line, but it has to face the demand zone @3771. Then it might shoot up to retest the neckline of the broken head and shoulders pattern and grab some liquidity to dive again all the way to 3655 scenario-2: the price will react to the trend line and go up to meet the neckline of the broken head and shoulders pattern and grab some liquidity to dive again all the way to 3655. ------------------- Let us know your thoughts in the comments, and show your support by liking the idea. Please follow if you're interested in more ideas like this. Your support is greatly appreciated!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Candlestick_OB
4
Hard to be bullish... SP500 🥶📉Taking a look at the Daily chart for the SP500. We can see a near perfect downward channel filled with dumps and scam pumps. Last week we saw a big rejection off of the 4100 resistance that we pumped up to back in September (yellow line). Then the subsequent FOMC rate hikes and CPI numbers pushed us lower. We'd expect to see a bit of a relief rally back up to the top of the channel, but at this point the move down looks basically locked in. A bottom of around 3200 would put us right in line with the 2020 crash levels. This remains our "bottom", at least in for now barring any crazy black swan event. Which is quite likely with the current geopolitical climate. We'll see how the rest of 2022 plays out. Eyes peeled. -TucciNomics Chief Overlord, AlgoBuddy
SP:SPX
by QuantVue
SPX Fair Value Ranges - SPX ES1! SPY - Updated 121722Here is a chart that calculates SPX "Fair Value", based off FED Net Liquidity variables. SPY ES1! Looking to the end of the year 2022 and the start of 2023, here are some SPX target ranges to keep in mind when taking into account the current FED Net Liquidity: Upper Bound: $4,271.69 Fair Value: $3,921.69 Lower Bound: $3,771.69 If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼 SPX Fair Value (FED Net Liquidity) www.tradingview.com SPX Net Liquidity Band Indicator via @dharmatechnology8: www.tradingview.com
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco