SPY S&P500 etf Bearish DivergenceIf you haven't already purchased SPY after the 2023 forecast: forecast:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/idea/l6U1M9dJ/
then it's important to be aware that there's a significant bearish divergence in the RSI of SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, which initiated at $469.
Anticipating a technical retracement to $495, given its prolonged period of being overbought!
Sp500index
SP500. Weekly trading levels 13 - 17.05.2024SP500 is again almost at a historical high, with one zone to go ahead.
During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
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Dividends Are Coming. S&P500 Annual Dividend Index FuturesA few months ago I started this research, research of Equity Index Dividend futures, provided by CME Group.
Well, sounds good. Let's continue..
Were you ready or not, but in February, 2024 Meta platforms (META) announced its first-ever in history cash dividend of $0.50 per share to be paid out on quarterly basis.
“We intend to pay a cash dividend on a quarterly basis going forward,” the company said in a release .
Meta stock surged for 20% after that amid other huge reasons.
Alphabet (GOOG) also issued first-ever dividend of 20 cents per share in April, 2024.
The news, announced alongside first-quarter earnings, helped to send the Google parent’s shares up 15%.
Dividend Market as well as Dividend futures trading shines bright.
Understanding Dividends and Dividend Market Futures
👉 A dividend is the distribution of corporate earnings to eligible shareholders.
👉 Dividend payments and amounts are determined by a company's board of directors. Dividends must be approved by the shareholders by voting rights. Although cash dividends are common, dividends can also be issued as shares of stock.
👉 The dividend yield is the dividend per share, and expressed as a percentage of a company's share price.
👉 Many companies - constituents of S&P500 Index still DO NOT PAY dividends and instead retain earnings to be invested back into the company.
👉 The S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) tracks the total dividends from the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. The index provides investors the opportunity to hedge or take a view on dividends for U.S. stocks, independent of price movement, as S&P500 Dividend Index Futures is a market expectation of how many points Dividends Index will collect by the end of year.
👉 Using the S&P500 Dividend Index as the underlying in financial products, investors can hedge or gain exposure to the dividend performance of the S&P500 Index.
Understanding S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures
👉 The S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures (main technical graph is for 2025 S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures) calculates the accumulation of all ordinary gross dividends paid on the S&P500 index constituent stocks that have gone ex-dividend over a 12-month period. The amounts are expressed as dividend index points.
👉 The underlying index for S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures is the S&P500 Dividend Index. The methodology for the index can be found here at S&P Global website.
👉 Dividend index points specifically refer to the level of index points that are directly attributable to the dividends of index constituents. They typically only capture regular dividends and calculate this on the ex-date of the respective constituents within each index.
👉 In general, “special” or “extraordinary” dividends are not included as dividend points in the respective annual dividend indices.
👉 Futures contract Unit is $ 250 x S&P 500 Annual Dividends Index.
Technical considerations
🤝 Main technical graph (S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures 2025) indicates on strong bullish bias. Who knows, maybe at one sunny day even Tesla King, Elon Musk will unleash his E-pocket 😂
🤝 Happy Dividend Market Trading to Everyone! Enjoy!
SP500 Mid term planOur friend Fibonacci is showing up a possible next move for SPX. Actually is ranging exactly on the 1.618 level of the last leg, and usually this level to a retrace till the level 1. There we could probably see a reversal that could lead the price into the resistance area at 5250, but it's probably too early for that
SP500 in the hammer zoneSP500 reached a strong reversal area where price reacted in the previous week. I was expecting a little pump in my previous ideas, and honestly i wasn't expecting it to rise so much. But i am holding my short trades and i am adding more here, consider i expect a selloff this month. First target the support zone at 4990
When it comes to broadening wedges...AMEX:SPY Here we have a few broadening wedges. The last 2 were descending and SPY blasted off to new ath highs. Now were in a ascending wedge and sitting at 514. We have a few big name ERs that can put us back on the path to new aths but I think we are heading back to 480 by July based on the previous wedge behavior, and long support and resistance.
S&P 500 At Major Decision PointThe stock market is at a major decision point, with 1969 low unemployment up-trending for the better part of the last year. Low unemployment *potentially* signals the maximum productivity of an economy. This is an important area to watch and wait. If we break above and trend-line check into support it could mean a bull market similar to 1990's is starting.
However if it holds as resistance we're unfortunately looking at a move back down to support much much lower than where we are right now.
I'd like to think because of visiting support twice in the dot-com crash and mortgage crisis that we are much more likely to break upward. But caution should be on our minds.
It's a very good idea to sit on the sidelines and wait for a clear direction to emerge.
Good luck!
SP500// ES Key zone 26.9 stm.We have the initial Resistance zone which is the intraday Bias changing zone.
Where the market is going to move if ES/ SP500 holding below initial resistance following the FC announcement then the reason to weakness then could still remain in play for move down to initial support.
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Short-term Neutral-Bearish
Intermediate Neutral-Bearish
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Correction in a larger degree of wave (Bear scenario)Esteemed analysts and traders,
I hope this correspondence finds you in good health and high spirits, prepared to tackle the upcoming week with renewed energy. I extend my best wishes for your continued success in all your business endeavors. It is worth noting that success in trading is largely dependent on the consistent definition and adherence to one's own rules.
As a supporter of the Elliott Wave Principle, I consider this methodology an invaluable tool for market analysis. After three years of personal experience, I have developed my approach by combining this principle with meticulous consideration of different market scenarios. I strive to avoid market surprises by maintaining a range of market prospects, which enables me to recognize the market structure forming with 100% accuracy.
I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the caveat that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is entirely impartial, and if my analysis meets your standards, it may serve as a guide to making an informed decision.
For your reference and comparison, I have attached my previous analysis of the same market. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled for ease of comprehension. Nonetheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory would facilitate an understanding of the analytical idea.
My study of the Elliott Wave Principle took nearly three years, during which my understanding and experience with this invaluable tool have grown. My progress thus far is a testament to the legacy of Ralph Nelson Eliot, whose genius has provided the foundation for my achievements. May he rest in peace.
I express my gratitude for your continued support and kindness, and welcome your comments and critiques.
May my analysis be a valuable asset to your business journey, and I remain sincerely yours,
Mr. Nobody
Bullish scenario
The bullish scenario based on 5.3.5.3.5Esteemed analysts and traders,
I hope this correspondence finds you in good health and high spirits, prepared to tackle the upcoming week with renewed energy. I extend my best wishes for your continued success in all your business endeavors. It is worth noting that success in trading is largely dependent on the consistent definition and adherence to one's own rules.
As a supporter of the Elliott Wave Principle, I consider this methodology an invaluable tool for market analysis. After three years of personal experience, I have developed my approach by combining this principle with meticulous consideration of different market scenarios. I strive to avoid market surprises by maintaining a range of market prospects, which enables me to recognize the market structure forming with 100% accuracy.
I am pleased to share my analysis with you, with the caveat that I do not provide buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is entirely impartial, and if my analysis meets your standards, it may serve as a guide to making an informed decision.
For your reference and comparison, I have attached my previous analysis of the same market. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled for ease of comprehension. Nonetheless, familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory would facilitate an understanding of the analytical idea.
My study of the Elliott Wave Principle took nearly three years, during which my understanding and experience with this invaluable tool have grown. My progress thus far is a testament to the legacy of Ralph Nelson Eliot, whose genius has provided the foundation for my achievements. May he rest in peace.
I express my gratitude for your continued support and kindness, and welcome your comments and critiques.
May my analysis be a valuable asset to your business journey, and I remain sincerely yours,
Mr. Nobody
The bearish scenario of any corrective pattern and trend continuation
S&P 500 set to advance after a bout of selling on FridayEfforts are underway to head off a full-blown Middle East war.
What’s Happening Now:
A tense calm prevailed in the Middle East after Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel. Global markets showed signs of stability on speculation the conflict will remain contained.
Iran said there wouldn’t be further attacks as long as Israel didn’t react aggressively, but Benjamin Netanyahu warned, “Whoever strikes Israel, we will strike him.”
A diplomatic race is underway to help ensure any retaliation doesn’t raise the stakes too high.
“It’s right to price more geopolitical risk premia into assets, but at the end of the day equity markets are still only about 2% off all-time highs,” said Timothy Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street. “This was a well-telegraphed geopolitical development. A lot of the bad news is in the price already.”
As we can see on the chart, the index is still trading in the tight diagonal canal which once broken a higher liquidity impulse can be expected. With the current situation of repricing rate cuts, higher inflation, and war tensions rising I am strongly expecting a quick 3-7% test to the previous lows.