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Sp500short

M.A.G.A's STORYTAIL (SP500)If I can reach the stars, pull one down for you Shine it on my heart so you could see the truth That this love I have inside is everything it seems But for now I find, it's only in my dreams And I can change the world I will be the sunlight in your universe You would think my love was really something good Baby, if I could change the world If I could be king, even for a day I'd take you as my queen, I'd have it no other way And our love would rule in this kingdom we have made 'Till then, I'd be a fool wishing for the day And I can change the world I would be the sunlight in your universe You would think my love was really something good Baby, if I could change the world Baby, if I could change the world I could change the world I would be the sunlight in your universe You would think my love was really something good Baby, if I could change the world Baby, if I could change the world Baby, if I could change the world Eric Clapton
CME_MINI:ES1!
by POWERFUL_TRADERS
MES: Ice and Fire Could Blow the U.S. Economy Off its CourseCME: Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) #Microfutures In “A Song of Ice and Fire”, American author George Martin painted a mystical land where dragons spit out flame to destroy a whole city and a winter that last one hundred years. Game of Thrones, the popular HBO TV series, was adapted from Martin’s book. In 2025, we seem to be reliving these moments. California wildfires have claimed dozens of lives, burnt down thousands of homes, and caused an estimated $250 billion in damage. Meanwhile, Winter Storm Blair raged coast-to-coast, bringing heavy snow across the Great Plain to Mid-Atlantic. The storms shut down interstate highways, caused thousands of airport delays and racked up 350,000 power outages. At the time of this writing, Polar Vortex is bringing freezing temperature back to the lower 48 states. These weather perils are very destructive. In my opinion, the forces of nature could cause real damage to the entire U.S. economy. Firstly, we could see a rebound in inflation The Bureau of Statistics (BLS) reported that US CPI increased 0.4% in December and went up 2.9% year-over-year (YoY). Of which, the energy index decreased 0.5% YoY with energy commodities gasoline and fuel oil falling 3.4% and 13.1%, respectively. In contrast, energy services such as electricity increased 2.8% and natural gas (piped) rose 4.9% YoY. The chart shows a correlation between CPI and natural gas prices. The underlying logic is the U.S. economic reliance on natural gas. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 43.1% of the electricity in the country was generated by natural gas. In “Nat Gas: Trading the Weather”, I explained how cold temperatures increase natural gas demand for generating electricity and heating up homes. Higher natural gas prices affect not just the storm-hit regions, the entire country also bears a higher cost for energy services. Larger utility bills raise the cost of producing and distributing all goods and services. A leading indicator: When natural gas prices rise, inflation will likely go up. Conclusion: As natural gas went up sharply, we could expect a higher CPI for January. Secondly, we could see economic slowdown and higher unemployment Many businesses in the passage of winter storms suffered loss of sales. People in parts of Los Angles were evacuated. The total cost for insurance payout, loss of revenue, debris cleanup and rebuilding amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. Total US GDP was $28 trillion last year, or about $2.3 trillion per month. A quick calculation shows that the weather perils could shave off 1/10th of the US national output for the month of January! Many S&P 500 companies are based in California or in the storm-hit regions. The actual damage to them will be revealed when they report quarterly earnings in April and May. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report Q1 GDP on April 30th. US unemployment has been on the rise since mid-2023. In my opinion, the A.I. driven technological revolution is responsible for many High-Tech layoffs. On January 10th, the BLS released its nonfarm payroll report and showed that unemployment in the Information sector was 98,000 in December 2024, up from 86,000 a year ago. December is the busiest month for the Retail sector. However, retailers report total unemployment of 897,000 for the month, up 87,000 or 11% from December 2023. When the BLS updates its payroll report in January, I expect to see higher unemployment data. The month-to-month data could be even worse, as January is usually a slow month after the December holiday season. In addition, winter storms and wildfires would push more businesses to shut down and lay off employees. Finally, the uncertainty around economic policies under the new administration I expect President Trump to raise “ice and fire” on his own. If his first term is any guide, we would see plenty of drastic policy changes impacting various industries. Uncertainties are not well embraced in the world of investment. Any new policy initiative could bring the market to chaos when the news breaks, regardless of its long-term effect. During the first term, important policies (such as new tariff) were usually announced from Twitter tweets. This time around, they would likely come out of Truth Social tweets. Trading with Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures In my opinion, the U.S. stock market will face more volatility in the coming months. Key economic data could be disappointing for investors. • When the January nonfarm payroll report is released on February 7th, monthly employment data could trend lower, while unemployment rate ticks up. Signals of economic weakness could send the stock market lower. • When the January CPI data is released on February 12th, the headline inflation could move higher. If this is the case, the Fed is less likely to lower interest rates. The stock market will face downward pressure. • The Fed will meet on January 29th. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, the futures market prices a Fed decision of no-change at 97.9%. However, the market consensus shows that Fed Funds rates could drop to 3.25-4.00% by December, indicating 1-4 rate cuts in 2025. The Fed has not committed to any further rate cut. www.cmegroup.com Given these scenarios, a trader could explore short-term opportunities by shorting the S&P 500 prior to the Big Report Dates. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report provides further support to this thinking. The latest data shows that, as of January 14th, Leverage Funds hold 151,543 long positions and 448,908 short positions for E-Mini S&P 500 futures. Despite the S&P nearing its all-time high, “Smart Money” already turns bearish. Shorts outweigh longs by a 3-to-1 ratio. • They are also bearish on Nasdaq 100, by a 1:2 long-short ratio (43,254 vs. 82,724) • This contrasts with the Dow contracts sharply. Leverage funds own Micro Dow by a 3:2 long-short ratio (17,591 vs. 10,051) during the same period. The MES contracts offer smaller-sized versions of CME Group’s benchmark S&P 500 futures (ES) contracts. Micro futures have a contract size of $5 times the S&P 500 index, which is 1/10th of the E-Mini contract. Micro contracts are very liquid. CME Group data shows that 1,095,979 contracts were traded on Thursday, January 16th. Open Interest at the end of the day was 129,228. Buying or selling 1 MES contract requires an initial margin of $1,525. With Friday closing price of 6,040, each March contract (MESH5) has a notional value of $30,200. Compared with investing in stocks, the futures contracts offer a built-in leverage of about 20 times (=30200/1525). Hypothetically, if S&P futures price falls 10% to 5,436, the price change of 604 points (6,040-5,436) will translate into $3,020 in profit for a short position, given each index point equal to $5 for the Micro contract. Using the initial margin of $1,525 as a cost base, the trade would produce a theoretical return of 198% (=3020/1525). The risk to short Micro S&P is that the US stock market continues its spectacular rally. To limit the downside risk, a trader could set up a stop-loss when entering a short position. For illustration, a short trade executed at 6,040 could be combined with a 6,200 stop. If the S&P goes up to 6,500, the trader’s position would be liquidated well before that. The maximum loss would be $800 (= (6200-6040) * $5). Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
Rising bond yields hurting the S&P 500 indexThe rising bond yields is one of the top reasons why the S&P 500 index has pulled back in the past few months. Data shows that the 30-year yield surged to 5% for the first time since 2022. The 5-year and 10-year yields have also continued rising in the past few months. These yields rose after the US published strong nonfarm payrollsdata on Friday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy added over 264k jobs data, higher than the median estimate of 112k. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level in three months. Therefore, these numbers confirmed the Federal Reserve’s view that the labor market was doing well. Officials are now focusing on the steady inflation and have hinted that the bank will only deliver two cuts this year. Last year, we wrote about the bond vigilantes and warned that they may impact the stock market. These vigilantes are investors who typically push bond yields significantly higher when government spending is rising.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by POWERFUL_TRADERS
SP500 - detailed wave countReports indicate President-elect Donald Trump may declare a national economic emergency to enact controversial tariff policies under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). Despite criticisms, Trump remains committed to his proposed economic measures. Yahoo Finance reporter Alexandra Canal examines how the US dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB) might respond to Trump's tariff plans and overall economic agenda, inversely causing a reaction in S&P 500 (^GSPC) earnings growth.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by POWERFUL_TRADERS
S&P 500 struggles at the 1/4 Warning LineLet's not make trading harder than it is. All we can do is project - or read the Coffee ground. I'll prefer to use my projections with the Medianlines, using the Fork as my main tool. The nice part with this is, that I can relay on a proven framework with rules. Adding some risk & money management to it and the soup is ready to enjoy. So, I follow the same process with the ES. I see that price got rejected at the 1/4 line of the WL (Warning Line), and that price missed it to reach the WL1, which is a HAGOPIAN. That makes me lean on the rule, that price will go farther in the opposite direction than from where price came from (U-MLH). I outlined the scenarios with the arrows what to expect in the next weeks. Personally I'm overall very, very bearish, and I see the move to the Centerline coming. But this is just my opinion.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
S&P500 Measured Move - ES Target 2024 Reached?That's a ...ummmhh..surprise at least. And it's crazy. I never thought this could happen. But we better shall believe, that ECH - Everything Can Happen! So, is the target reached for 2024? Nobody knows, right? But, I start to further close positions and take my profits in these Index and the correlating Markets. Don't let Greed eat your Brain §8-) As for my Christmas Lotto Ticket this year, I take a small Short Position now...LEAPs, Bear-Spread, dunno yet, but it's a Shortie that I can let sit for a couple Months. Talk soon...
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
S&P 500 Comes Back From Extreme "Extreme"In the S&P 500, we observe a very similar scenario to the Nasdaq (see link to the NQ chart). It’s worth noting that we’ve seen this situation a few times before: the price traded outside the orange fork, moved back into the fork, but then left behind a "Hagopian" and shot back above it. This is irrational market behavior caused by artificial buying pressure (Gamma Squeeze). Now, we see the market bouncing off the 1/4 line between the warning line and the U-MLH of the white fork. And yet again, we’re trading within the orange fork. What now? Back up again or is it really heading down this time? Read my lips: "I - Don’t - Know." §8-) Buuuut, the projection and the extent of the over extension lead me to believe that this time, it’s going to crash! Like in the NQ, my stance here is **short** for the coming weeks, and possibly even months.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Deep short for SPY? My target is at 510, here why!Christmas Eve Rally? - Not quite. Trump Trade? - Hardly. So, what’s driving the market higher, and where is SPY headed next? Investor sentiment surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential elections seems to echo the euphoria of 2016, raising hopes for a similar post-election rally. Themes like tax cuts, protectionism, and trade wars are fueling optimism for U.S. equities. But let’s not get carried away. The economic and geopolitical landscapes today are vastly different, and so is the narrative. The “Superman” Trump of 2016 no longer holds the same sway over markets. The post-COVID stock market rally was buoyed by an unprecedented flood of liquidity. Based on our analysis, those excess dollars are nearly spent. Furthermore, the global economic outlook bears little resemblance to the relatively stable environment of 2016. While the Democrats’ recent performance metrics provide Powell with ample material to champion a “resilient economy,” the bigger question remains: Is the U.S. stock market truly worth its current valuations? We’ll delve into the overvaluation of the #SPY and #SPX indices in greater detail in the coming updates. For now, you can pay close attention to technical analysis, identifying key peaks and potential correction levels.
AMEX:SPYShort
by gorgevorgian
ES - Where to Join into the TrainThese two blue boxes are also very suitable for working with receivers. Instead of getting lost in the low time interval, transactions can be taken by looking at the reactions when the price reaches these levels. My Previous Ideas DOGEUSDT.P | 4 Reward for 1 Risk much more if you hold it. RENDERUSDT.P | HTF Accuracy ETHUSDT.P | Accurate Buyer Zone Identification | High Risk Reward if you hold it. BNBUSDT.P | Accurate Buyer Zone Identification | High Risk Reward if you hold it. Bitcoin Dominance | Great Characteristic Detection and Accurate Analysis
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by XU99
Stock Market ft. The BIG SHORT.Election coming, looks to be priced in as we speak, expect a drop, probably more severe than my chart if the conditions are met BELOW.. Conservative levels to short above (no guarantee we are coming back to those levels) as the futures market can continue to plummet as early as Monday next week. I expect a heavy forecast of rain up until the election and after, we are about to see some crazy $%^& in the next few months, Price is weighted on the weekly, to Target 1, if that level doesn't hold we will see target 2 and target 3 QUICK, If my price reacts the way I think it is, I will be dropping a multi-year monthly chart to follow, Good luck traders.
SP:SPXShort
by MarketMakerTraders
SP500 - 1D Who will buy the most EXPENSIVE TULIP?SP500 - 1D Who will buy THE most expensive TULIP? The SP500 continues to rise unstoppably, reaching 5700. It is possible that it will continue to rise, but the question is how far. Technically, the rise is shaped like a megaphone and is currently touching the ceiling. In fact, it has broken the resistance and it is not clear how far it could continue to rise. On the other hand, looking at the chart, it is clear that sooner or later it has to correct. Pay attention to the US presidential elections. Maybe then it will turn around. Intermediate support zone: 4800 Once our strategy is defined, it is a matter of waiting to enter at the right time. TradeX Bot, you can configure BUY and SELL strategies on futures, so our way of approaching the market will offer us opportunities whether the market rises or falls. TradeX BoT (in development): Tool to automate trading strategies designed in TradingView. It works with both indicators and graphic design tools: parallel channels, trend lines, supports, resistances... It allows you to easily establish SL (%), TP (%), SL Trailing... multiple strategies in different values, simultaneous BUY-SELL orders, conditional orders. This tool is in the development process and the BETA will soon be ready for testing. FOLLOW ME and I will keep you informed of the progress we make. I share with you my technical analysis assessments on certain values ​​that I follow as part of the strategies I design for my portfolio, but I do not recommend anyone to operate based on these indications. Inform yourself, train yourself and build your own strategies when investing. I only hope that my comments help you on your own path :)
SP:SPXShort
by DeuXfi
SP500 1D - DOUBLE TOP = HEADSP500 1D - DOUBLE TOP = HEAD The SP500 is finishing drawing the head of the SHS figure with this double maximum. If in these days it does not manage to break the resistance, the fall can be quite steep to go looking for the 4800 in the first instance and continue going down to 3600, base of the previous shoulder. If the SP500 manages to break the resistance, this figure would be cancelled. As always, it is better to act with a head and do things at the right time.
SP:SPXShort
by DeuXfi
What's S&P500 & Why Needs a Price CorrectionThe S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as one of the best indicators of the overall health of the U.S. stock market and the economy. The companies included in the index span a wide range of industries, including technology, healthcare, financials, and consumer goods, among others. The index is weighted by market capitalization, meaning larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance. Why SP500 needs a Price Correction? A price correction occurs when the value of a stock or a market index, like the S&P 500, declines by a certain percentage, typically 10% or more, after a sustained period of upward movement. Corrections are a natural part of market cycles and can happen for several reasons. Here are a few reasons why stocks may need to go down in order to make a correction: 1. Overvaluation: When stocks become overvalued relative to their earnings, assets, or growth potential, a correction helps realign prices with their intrinsic value. Investors may have driven prices too high due to speculation or overly optimistic expectations, and a correction brings valuations back to more reasonable levels. 2. Market Euphoria and Excessive Risk-Taking: When the market experiences excessive optimism, driven by factors like low-interest rates, easy access to capital, or speculative trading, it can lead to inflated stock prices. A correction serves as a reality check, reducing excessive risk-taking and bringing prices back to sustainable levels. 3. Economic Slowdown or Uncertainty: Economic indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, or consumer spending can signal a slowdown. If the economy is weakening, companies may struggle to meet earnings expectations, leading to lower stock prices. A correction allows the market to adjust to a new economic reality. 4. Interest Rate Changes: Rising interest rates make borrowing more expensive and reduce corporate profits, which can lead to a market correction. Higher rates also make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, prompting investors to reallocate their portfolios, leading to downward pressure on stock prices. 5. Profit-Taking by Investors: After a strong market rally, investors may start taking profits, especially if they believe prices have peaked. This selling pressure can lead to a correction as stock prices adjust to lower levels. Conclusion Corrections are a necessary and healthy part of the market cycle, helping to prevent bubbles from forming and ensuring that stock prices reflect the underlying fundamentals of companies and the economy. Although corrections can be unsettling for investors, they often create buying opportunities and contribute to the long-term stability of the market.
SP:SPXShort
by MiguelFTCurado
3