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Sp500short

Final Market Drop For Now Looks Like...We are potentially in the early stages of Primary wave 5 in overall Cycle A of SuperCycle 2. SuperCycle 2 began shortly after the beginning of January this year as we are yet to revisit a new all-time high for the S&P 500 index. The wave number nomenclature for this wave being analyzed is 152A5. I may reference the end of this structure (2A5 or A5) when comparing against historical data. I will try to forward forecast the end of Cycle A which will coincide with the end of Primary wave 5. I will do this by studying the relationships of each Primary wave we have encountered and compare it to the historical relationships between each wave and wave 5. After a rough timeline to completion is established, I will then work backwards and attempt to plot the endpoints for each of the 5 Intermediate waves inside of Primary wave 5. This blueprint will be tweaked as we move through Primary wave 5. (NOTE: If we are still in Primary wave 4, I will re-accomplish these steps once wave 4 appears to have concluded. We are likely still in wave 4 if a high above 4012 is achieved this week, however, Friday July 29, 2022 is likely the last day in this wave.) WAVELENGTH BASED ON STRUCTURE ENDING (A5 / 2A5) Based on all waves ending in 2A5, the strongest model agreement suggests this current wave will last 23 trading days. The second strongest agreement is at 46 days and third strongest at 19 days. Primary wave 1 lasted 35 days, wave 2 was 23 days, wave 3 was 56 days, and as of now wave 4 is 23 days. Waves ending in 2A5 tend to makeup 14.29-16-25% of the larger waves they reside inside with the first value being the 1st quartile, second is the median, and last is 3rd quartile based on all available data. Based on the duration of Primary waves 1 through 4 and application of the 14.29-25% values, Primary 5 could last 23, 26, or 46 days. Waves ending in A5 slightly expand this range with a 15.38-19.18-29.03% quartile breakdown. Replicating this analysis per the last portion, Primary 5 could last 25, 32, or 56 days. Primary waves ending in 2A5 makeup 15.56% - 36.95% of the wave in which they reside. This would add lengths of 25 and 80 days. Primary wave 5 has moved beyond the length of Primary wave 3 on only 2 of 28 occasions. This means the overall length will likely be less than 56 trading days. There are other studied areas and ratios, however the standard deviations in the data does not point to much consistency. The ratio between the duration of Primary wave 4 to Primary wave 5 sits in a relatively small window. Wave 4’s duration in trading days to wave 5 has a median ratio of 0.4358. This means wave 4’s duration of 23 days divided by 0.4358 could see Primary wave 5 lasting 53 days. Quartile 1’s ratio is 0.2517 and quartile 3 is 0.6507. The first quartile would have the length at 91 days while the third quartile would be 35 days. For reference, 23 days would end August 24; 25—August 26; 26—August 29; 32—September 7; 35—September 12; 46—September 27; 56—October 11; 80—November 14; 91—November 30. Most of these days point to a potential bottom by mid-September, however, Primary wave 5 may end as late as November. Calculating the duration of the waves has proven one of the more difficult tasks undertaken during Elliott Wave forecasting, but we are getting better. Realistically we may drop until the next Federal Reserve meeting in September where inflation may appear under more control than it has been. That meeting is scheduled for September 21. WAVE MOVEMENT FORECASTING Wave 5 tends to extend beyond the end of wave 3’s value. These extensions are considered as percentages of wave 3’s movement. If Primary wave 5 drops to the end of Primary wave 3 at 3636.87, then 100% of wave 3’s movement would have been achieved. Waves ending in 2A5 have extensions with the quartile breakdowns of 112.36%-135.09%-204.51%. Waves ending in A5 have a quartile breakdown of 112.36-122.26-163.93%. Primary wave 5s have a quartile breakdown of 105.86-120.12-153.08%. Lastly, Primary wave 5s ending in A5 extend 112.36%, 114.06%, 116.69%, and 203.9% beyond Primary wave 3. Most of these levels have been plotted on the chart above. Another datapoint for forecasting movement is how much wave 5 makes up of the overall wave in which it resides. Waves ending in A5 makeup 36.90%-49.71%-74.18% in the quartile breakdown. Waves ending in 2A5 makeup 30.60%-56.75%-86.46%. Primary wave 5’s tend to makeup 26.305-41.04-51.51% in the quartile breakdown. Primary waves ending in 2A5 specifically makeup 21.37%, 23.51%, 36.09% and 75.12%. Assuming Wave 5 moves beyond the end of Primary wave 3, wave 5’s movement should account for greater than 32% of the overall wave. If Primary wave 5 makes up greater than 70%, the market bottom would be below 2112. This level is well beyond the rare drop level of 2636 which would be a 200% extension of Primary wave 3. Movement below 2636 is likely out of the realm of possible for this Primary wave 5. This would mean wave 5 will likely account for 32%-63% of Cycle wave A’s movement. The bottom of Cycle wave A Primary wave 5 should occur within the highlighted box in the chart above.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500, can we regain some losses?Hi Traders, Indices have been a bear market lately and we have finally have reached a critical point if we will see a breakout upwards another push down. Looking at the HTF price has been consolidating within a falling wedge reversal structure. On the LTF, price broke out of a bullish continuation pattern within the larger structure which seems to be correctively pushing out of the HTF structure. Wait for further development to see if we will see a HTF continuation structure to give us a buy opportunity. Trade Safe Thanks
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by ktlfx
SHORT the SP500 after Monday - May see 3900 then SHORTTrading between 25% and 50% FIBS MAY complete last wave to 3900 – then Reverse Potential Triple Top -Strong Resistance Divergence On the Oscillators SP500 and US100 also has a similar flag - Hopefully TSLA MSFT GOOGLE APPLE AMZN eps will tank this market as all reporting in the next 14 days - and 7-21- Europe drops 10% if the Russian gas does not get turned back on after maintenance – and 7-28 2nd quarter GDP confirming recession 7-29 the Fed explains why another 3/4% hike scheduled for Sept ... So we are due for an interesting 2 weeks Trade Safe - Please Leave comment or insight so I can learn!
SP:SPXShort
by CapeAfrican
9
Theory 2 of 3 for SPXI have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY TWO: Current position is Intermediate wave 4 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 2 still has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see the market move up for a few more weeks as it attempts to finish Intermediate wave 4 (PINK). It appears Minor wave A (YELLOW) has concluded and it is even possible the low 2 days later was the end of Minor wave B down. It remains possible for further downswing this week to complete Minor wave B but it likely will not pass below the June low at 3636.87. Wave B CAN go below this level but it would bounce above it quickly. IMPORTANT MOVES: There are no duration restrictions on future movement at this time. A break above 3945 before a drop below 3636 would continue to keep this theory in play. PROS: If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession. CONS: The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
Theory 1 of 3 for SPXI have narrowed the likely future paths down to 3 theories. THEORY ONE: Current position is Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 5 of Primary wave 1 of Cycle A of Supercycle 2. Theory 1 has the bear market finding a final bottom 5-8 years from now. The path for the next month would see new lows below 3636.87 which was the recent low from June. IMPORTANT MOVES: Currently Intermediate wave 3 is the shortest between waves 1 and 3 at 31 days. This would force wave 5 to be less than 31 days which is set for July 19. Minor waves 1 and 2 as marked (YELLOW) have accounted for 17 of the 31 days. This means we must complete Minor waves 3, 4, and 5 within the next 14 days which will be a very tight timeframe. This theory will be ruled out if we break above 3945 before we break beneath 3636. The futures right now are pointing to this theory being disqualified. PROS: If this model holds out, it will provide ample time for investors to ride the waves up and down during the current recession. CONS: The correction at the beginning of the millennium saw the overall decline last for about 9 years (March 2000 – March 2009). This was a larger macro event then our current correction. It is unlikely that this event will last nearly as long as that one. This would likely imply the current political pressures on the market are not resolved until after the 2028 election cycle. There is also an Elliott Wave violation inside of Intermediate wave 3 (the span between PINK 2 and PINK 3). Minute wave 4 ends beyond where Minute wave 2 ends. This violation likely negates the Minor waves inside of Intermediate 3 and its end point.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
S & P 500: Selling On A RetracementS & P 500 – Cash: Selling On A Retracement Price Action: Price moved higher from the Bullish Pin Bar + Inside Bar (Combo Setup) that had formed late last week (We did not consider trading this setup, nor did we mention it). Price moved higher from the recent ultra-small Bullish Tailed Bar Signal that had formed over a week ago (We did not consider trading this signal). Potential Trade Idea: We are considering selling on a retracement higher and after a price action sell signal, whilst price remains below the 4100 – 4205 key resistance area (Event Area).
UShort
by UnknownUnicorn393254
ES1! - S&P 500 Target At P5If you followed the projections of the S&P 500, you where able see live, day by day, how the pitchfork/medianline tools and framework is applied to the markets. And more important, how we as trader can rely on these tools and rules. In the chart you see that the market swung up to create P4. It's really picture perfect so far. Now we approach P5. But know that we can't "predict" that a) P5 WILL happen for surre and b) WHERE it will be, before the market turns north again But we know that the probability is super high and we can expect P5 at least below P3. A nice gift from the trading god would be a pullback to the prior support which was broken yesterday. I always try to scale in, be it by futures, stocks and even options. However, I will be very opportunistic and (partially) out of the trade when the market is not trading within the rule-set. Stay focused and trade small, there will be plenty of opportunities in these markets. So there's absolutely nothing great in trying to be a hero.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Stocks moving lower !! US500 Intraday - We look to Sell at 3893 (stop at 3948) Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. We look for losses to be extended today. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Previous support, now becomes resistance at 3900. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Our profit targets will be 3732 and 3701 Resistance: 3900 / 4080 / 4300 Support: 3800 / 3720 / 3666 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by VantageMarkets
United States equities market may have more upside momentum. S&P500 Chart ( U.S benchmark Index; expresses how 500 large U.S companies are performing) Bullish: $4800 — Bearish $3400 (Based on some analyst, economist and wealth strategist) Where the fundamentals and technicals make sense. The Good but Bad news Employment change and jobless claims rates announced today is the “good but bad news”. The economy slightly remains in a “growth” phase indicating we have a little more gas in the tank.(Some analyst think we can drive until year end). Whereas the Federal reserve is trying to ease inflation to slow down economic “growth”. We can see now why the equities market is bearish and slightly bullish at the same time. - Payroll and unemployment rates are announced tomorrow morning @ 830am(Eastern Time) Cheaper GAS prices? Earlier this week EU leaders also banned Russian oil contributing to the scarcity of oil and an increase in gas. Saudi Arabia has agreed to increase oil production to help assist with the oil supply issues. We may not have to stand in the heat this summer to watch the gas meter after we’ve chosen between a full tank or an overpriced bottle of water for while we still stand and watch the meter. lol The feelings of uncertainty -Larry Fink (CEO of BlackRock) comments on economic conditions. Sourced from an exclusive interview on Bloomberg.com Suggest the equities market will provide investors with the feeling of uncertainty in the near future. Supply chain issues, policy changes and the transition to a consumer based economy are the causes of inflationary problems. “The Federal Reserve doesn’t have the tools to fix these issues”—a comment from Larry Fink. While the federal reserve can slow down consumer spending and business growth is still doesn’t address the supply chain constraints, company business models and for those who still have enough in the bank or earn enough to afford — consumer demand. Comments: The bullish sentiment may be from an expected decrease in gas prices, steady employment and job growth, consumer spending despite being overpriced. Indicating businesses net income and revenue still have some room to grow. The bearish sentiment may be from the federal reserve expectations of an increase in unemployment, jobless claims and interest rates. Along with a decrease in job openings, consumer spending and banks holding on to more cash. So, whether you’re a fundamental or technical investor/ trader, here’s both. Be careful where you're putting your monies.
BLACKBULL:SPX500Short
by charrison4300
SP500- Bulls MUST hold 4070-4100 zoneLast week was a very good week for SP500, with the index reversing strongly and rising back above 4k important figure. However, after reaching 4.2k, SP500 has started to drop and now is trading at 4120. It remains to be seen if this is just a correction for the previous leg up or a resumption of the downtrend, but one thing is clear for me: for SP to remain bullish it needs to stay above 4070, if not, a new visit to previous low is very probable. Although at this moment I don't have an open trade on SP500, my opinion is that the downtrend is not yet done and we will have a new low around 3.5k in the medium term. I will become bullish if the index manages to get back above 4.3k
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
10
ES1! - S&P 500 Too High Too FastFrom yesterdays session, they strangled the S&P too high too fast. This will probably lead in a nice short micro crash to the center line. Do you see the daily chart? Price is exactly at the center line, and a 50% warning line confluence. Price just follow the rules of the Andrews Medianlines: "If price breaks through any Medianline, it pulls back to it, before continuing it's path." This would indicate that price, even on the daily chart, would decline further. And chances are, that the short term trade to the red center line contains a high chance to work out. Details: - price opened outside the orange pitchfork = price is reversing (south) - a test/retest up to the L-MLH of the orange pitchfork is highly possible, even above the last high of 3973.75. - the stochastic is in overbought territory, preying to relieve some steam The Trade is cooking. Now there's nothing else to do than wait and observe. Happy Friday everyone.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
1