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Sp500short

Is your money worth reading "maybe´s"Hello Trenders, Been thinking a lot to or to not publish this signal. Many of you expect a deep on global level, therefore I here show you some mathematic forecast. This may not be the end of the world, yet it is far worse than the most downbeat forecasts. The evidence to support this outlook is in plain sight. Some sixth-grade math is a good place to begin the analysis. Make 2019 economic output 100 (the actual figure is $22 trillion; “100” is 100 percent of that number; a convenient way to measure ups and downs). Assume output drops 20 percent over the second and third quarters of 2020 (many estimates project larger drops; 20 percent is a plausible if conservative estimate). A 20 percent drop for six months equals a 10 percent drop for the full year, assuming the first and fourth quarters are flat on net. A 10 percent drop from 100 = 90 (or $2.2 trillion of lost output). Since 1948, U.S. annual real growth in GDP has never exceeded 10 percent. Since 1984, real growth has never exceeded 5 percent. The highest-growth years since the end of World War II were 8.7 percent in 1950, 8 percent in 1951, and 7.2 percent in 1984. An assumption that real growth will occur in 2021 at a 6 percent annual rate is a generous if unrealistic assumption. Such growth would qualify as a Vshaped recovery. If our new base is 90 (compared with 100 in 2019) and we increase output by 6 percent in 2021, this brings total output to 95.4. If we enter 2022 with the new base of 95.4 and increase that base by 4 percent (so, 95.4 × 1.04), we come to 99.2 in total output by the end of 2022. Here’s the problem. Using 100 as a baseline for 2019 output, and assuming 6 percent real growth in 2021 and 4 percent in 2022 (rates of growth that have not happened on an annual basis since 1984), the economy does not get back to 2019 output levels. The hard truth is that 99.2 < 100. Source : The new great depression (2021). What about if we really have a second wave harder then the first with mutatied covid? I want to add, is not my intention to spread panic or "maybe´s" but the study got my attention. Even the legends will have trouble surviving if this happen. So how can a trader survive in this case condition by trading as only source of income??? Perhaps agricultural commodities will always perform....
SP:SPXEducation
by DeFontain
1
S&P500 - Are we too Vertical?Jeremy Grantham recently says a bubble means crazy behavior, Ray Dalio explained in his video we are in difficult, Housing price too high, inflation jumped high and rising of IR fear ticking the clock. Micheal Burry famous in deep digging and in his recent tweets like he going to warn again. But if we look technical we can say we are too vertical and this pile can slip. How far we can go still a mystery but when market slips it takes very short time and from SP500 entire history we can learn how many time it correct itself 10% to 20% , and if crash it will cross 20%.
U
by Deevog
SP500Playing around with this count on the LT weekly chart from b4 2000 dot com bubble. SP500 looks like a very clean 5 up & 5 wave down pattern 1 after another. I am sure that if we dial down into the LTF we could find many complex Flat & zig zag corrections but zoomed out everything looks pretty clean. The W3 that we are currently in lines up with 4600 rough target. I know a W4 is coming but the fib 1.618 lvl is really a better target for W3. So maybe SP500 continues up for now until 4600 and after that W4 will ensue. Hard to tell but I don't see W4 forming as of yet even with all the bearish inflation narratives.
SP:SPXLong
by Big_Mike716
SHIBBUSD - KEY TURNING POINTGood morning, everyone! Shiba Inu is about to get listed on Coinbase and, as you can see on the daily chart, the price has just found support on top of the first medium average line (on lighter red). I had previously pointed out that Shiba had found its support around the 00000650/00000700 values, after the big drop that followed its Binance listing, and I also pointed out that we were getting more and more signals of a potential reversal. On my last post, I pointed out that the price would have to wait for some media attention by getting listed on RobinHood, for example, where there is an online petition that already has 150000 signatures asking for that. Well, we haven´t seen it listed on RobinHood yet, but yesterday Coinbase announced that it was going to list Shiba Inu, so its probable that we will see a big boost to SHIB in the near future. All though this is an idea for SHIBBUSD, I have to point out the overall market behaviour in the last couple of days: - We are living in a very unique period, and after the major shift of the last couple of days, it is highly likely that we are already experiencing a pullback and correction in the world markets. Yesterday, the SP500 index has just had its first breach on the major upward trend line that had been unbroken since the beginning of its recovery after the Covid19 market crash in March 2020. This index regulates the prices for all the 500 big cap companies that are inside of it, and all of those companies prices depend on the movements of their index. This being said. I would advise extra caution during the next week in terms of investments because, apart from the eminent Wall Street market crash that I strongly believe that we are about to experience during the next 2 to 4 weeks, with a correction of 10%, to say the least, and the potential start of a harsh bear market due to inflation and rising rates, just to name a few, it is highly likely that its effect will spread to crypto and that any investment right now is of very high risk. Conclusion: Shiba Inu is about to get listed on Coinbase and the stock market is likely to be crashing hard, so choose your investments wisely and stay safe riding the markets out there. Have a nice week.
SLong
by Djubah
SP500My super smart highly educated fin twit buddy is telling me 4400 is coming b4 any pull back. But IDK TBH I see the waves as complete and W4 should ensue very soon. So Im just open my LT trades and I am trading in and out quickly as we all know from EW wave 4 can be brutal. Or can be quickly bought up so this uncertain aspect of stocks leaves me kinda on the side lines as some FA shows that inflation trade is all about finished and with USA reopening we should cool off and a W4 kinda makes sense. I will say that this dip is a fantastic buying opportunity IMO. Tech sector looks ready to puke so entries in the coming months can set up sweet portfolio positions in 2022. I will be doing an hourly wave analysis in my newly created group and trying to keep all eyes on the W4 pull back. GL guys.
SP:SPXShort
by Big_Mike716
SPY Bear MarketBig money doesn't buy weekly options. They tend to think in terms of quarters and years. I believe this February was a peek into their underlying pessimism and just how readily they can dump positions at the first sign of fear. Of course, in a controlled sell-off there would be bear market rallies and selling into strength. Going forward I expect most of the gains in the past 4 years to be wiped away. You can focus on momentum divergences and a bleak economic state or the current polling for the presidential race. Biden has already stated he will completely unwind Trump's tax cut which is arguably the only piece of legislation he's passed in 4 years. There are plenty of economic boons that Biden offers as well, but we can expect the tax cut to be unraveled before the positive impacts of change occur. As with all technical analysis this is simply reading tea leaves. However, I'm personally going to trust deep selling more than strong buying for the near future. Don't bet the farm on short term index puts, but prepare to hedge and cut losers on any macro level weakness that may arise in the next few months. I will definitely be watching the DIX index and the Repo schedule for any signs of institutional selling or banking weakness and dipping into long vol ETF positions when I feel a hedge is necessary. Good luck out there, a VIX near 30 has the market swinging 2-5% in either direction damn near every week these days.
AMEX:SPYShort
by HyerQuality
SP500 - SHORT; Nothing but Shorts (SELL!!) here!A ~25% decline from here should be rather quick and uneventful. However, such a decline is likely to be just the first leg on a long road to a full ~70% decline by the end of this full cycle. - Which would be nothing more than a garden variety return to the Historic Norm ! The same goes for all US Indexes and those who are historically informed (or reviewed the evidence, presented in virtually every single recent post) should not be surprised at all. The Carry Trade Currencies - and equivalents relative to the VIX post;
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
5