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Sp500short

SPY To The Downside After that nice little end of day rally on Friday I'm looking at a price target of 385 - 380 by this upcoming Thursday to bring Spy down to the 50 or 618 fib levels. QQQ is ahead of SPY just a little in regard to fib retracement. Recently had a big upswing off of the 50 fib to above 23 fib before having an aggressive sell of > -2% in one day straight down to the 618 fib before another small rally up. EOD spy rally pushed it right above the 23 fib. Intraday charts also suggesting buyer exhaustion. Will be interesting to see if the suez canal crisis will play a "role" in market movements next week. Look forward to your thoughts. Thanks!
AMEX:SPYShort
by youssefgg
7
You know(!!) you are in a bubble ...... When: The funding a 36-year stream of expected inflation-adjusted spending requires over 38 years of money up-front; Every single decile of S&P 500 components is at record valuation extremes; www.hussmanfunds.com The amount of leverage in the system (U.S. equity markets) is now easily the highest in history, by any measure, not just in absolute terms! (relative to GDP, etc. Margin Debt/GDP = Margin Debt/Market Cap x Market Cap/GDP Showing insane over-valuation across the board!); In a world where speculators now value the stock of bitcoin at one-fifth the value of the entire U.S. monetary base; The current SPAC mania is identical to the South Sea Bubble in as much as: "Let them see not what they do!"; In an economy with $11 trillion in corporate debt at $58 trillion in equity market capitalization; When U.S. Market Capitalization exceeds 263% of U.S. GDP (the norm, not the low, being 78%); Anyway, this is likely a Double Top here.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
17
SP500 - The Phantom Menace (Episode I)As can be seen in the graph, after the pandemic, it collected rapidly and it seems that it will continue the rising wedge movement to the end. If the targets for the future will not be 4000+, we can see a very sharp decline as a result of the rising wedge formation from here. In this sense, it would not be wrong to expect the prices to fall back to 3000 levels due to the formation target. However, this 25% decrease would be a disaster for the financial markets. The place to enter the game is as important as where and when we exit the game. It is useful to be careful, especially in light of these inflationary expectations. TVC:SPX It contains only personal views and opinions. Does not contain legal investment advice ...
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EmoteK
7
SP500 Lifetime OpportunityHi there, SP500 at the moment is a clear buy with target above 4000 If we pay attention to the DXY chart, we are starting a uptrend but still on sideways moment, which SP500 due to many retails shorting it, has been making new highs every week, as long as dollar is weak it will keep doing it, but dollar is soon ending this sideways market to start an uptrend. SP500 then will top at that moment If we look at the elliot wave theory, we are in the final phase, Blow off, close to a top to begin then a new trend. This is a long term view, if your looking to sell it, sell only at the mentioned wave 5, near it. Good luck
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by fernandoc17
9
S&P 500 could check back to 3,700 levelSPX could correct all the way to the 3,683 level, which is the 100-day moving average on the daily chart. 200-day MA would be the 3,466 level, but I don't think there's that much air in the market. The last 3/4 times the SPX has hit the 100-day MA on the daily chart it has bounced back. Seems the probability is higher than it falling below. P.S. you can protect the downside of the S&P by using SPXS, which is triple leveraged to the downside of the S&P. So if you see the SPX begin to freefall again on bad news or the 10-year treasury yield surging higher again, it might be worth a trade. This is not investment advice, always do your homework, and gauge your risk properly. Be careful out there traders, cheers! Here is a chart of SPXS compared to the SPX on a 15m chart.
TVC:SPXShort
by EBITDAtiger
MACRO - VOLATILITY & SP500 -$VIX - The Gamma Bubble - Blood MoonThe Gamma Bubble is about to burst. - High implied volatility on VIX... Barely moved during the market selloff on Friday. I think when indicators that usually inverse each other stop correlating with each other, investors are just completely exiting the markets. - Over $100 Bn in bonds liquidated... Liquidity in the bond market was the only reason that I was able to remain bullish with some confidence in the equities market until now. - Dark Pool Index indicating that institutional investors have been exiting positions since January. The last time such a movement was seen was in Feb. of last year. - SPY with a scythe... algorithms selling off, while price being painted up for gamma exposure and theta burn: In today's market, the lit pool markets are secondary to dark pool markets and the options market. True price discovery occurs after options have expired. - $1.9 T Stimulus Bill passed, but I speculate it will only increase the scale of the liquidity crisis to come... - $100 Bn~ was about the amount that the MM would need to have paid out from their exposed short positions on $GME at its previous high, when their 140% short interest via naked shorts was raided by retail investors, before Robinhood and other brokerages restricted buying. We saw exposed institutions liquidate their long positions across their market to defend their short position here. - Congress only increased media exposure to the issue, and GME is preparing for another wave of retail impulse buying... By Elliot Wave Theory, the next impulse wave will take $GME higher than the previous high. - Retail investors are certain to use at least some of their stimulus to fuel this movement. - Not only GME, but AMC seems to be a likely candidate to converge with GME's price, via short squeeze + gamma squeeze. There are other highly suppressed stocks that are also rising. - If SPY also begins a downtrend, it is the greatest candidate to gamma squeeze downwards, due to colossal implied volatility caused by the strength of the MM's algorithmic pinning. Simply put, if SPY falls, it will fall hard and fast, and the OTM puts will fuel the short squeezes even more. This is big trouble. A liquidity crisis in the making, if the short side institutions do not unwind their positions. - GME - AMC I took a hedge position, risked off, and began short positions on Feb. 10, more based on technical indicators, but I think this is more confirmation. We will have to see if the Stimulus Bill can prolong this, but I think many are in agreement that a correction is imminent.
TVC:VIXLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
8
🐻 Will tomorrow be a bear party? 🐻 @YouCannotBeSerious @unicow We called it boys, we kings on this blessed day, enjoy the profits I certainly am 🍣 China's bubbleboy warnings scattered the bulls and prevented any real shot at a surge. Now that the momentum is pushing us down, we might as well cross 3850 and explore 37xx. That's what I feel will happen, we might go up to the 3890's then dive down, we might not reach 37xx today but we'll make a dent. I would've felt more comfortable if we crossed down beyond 3868 but oh well. There is still the risk of rushing upward, positive stimulus news could still wreck us. Medium term, shorting this will be nothing short of suicide. Biden admin plans on signing the American Rescue Plan into law by March 14. Direct deposits would likely start the week of March 22, with checks beginning to arrive the week of March 29. Last time that happened markets went bezerk and they will do so again. I am aiming for 3775 then I am flipping and joining the bull 🐂 squad. Long term this is even more suicidal as the US vaccination program is picking up. This might be the only week 🐻s will get for some time. So grill those steaks boys as if it is your last 🥩
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Valiacuse
3
SP500 continues the correction.SP500 continues the correction. Based on the analysis, I assume that the first wave sequence shown in the figure is repeated. It can also be seen that the first wave sequence created a wider accumulation range (channel). This channel is sloping 6 degrees. The current accumulation range (channel) increases by 30 degrees. Determining these is important because we can identify the exact point of entry in the long direction. In the present case, this level is 3783usd. Up to this level, taking a short position in a 2-3 day trade can also make sense. The further decline may also be supported by the rising value of the VIX index.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by meszaros
5
S&P500 - The "Mayan Calendar" Chart Fearing an upcoming crash / correction I've been looking at all the key indexes etc, and this was one of my earlier explorations using Fibonacci. I look at this chart with a large pinch of salt, more a fascinating oddity than something scientific (maybe!), but I do find all the correlations very interesting. Ultimately this connects well with my Vix & Gold charts in regards to overall cycles so I do pay attention to this and it's progression. Time will tell! Enjoy this "Mayan Calendar" chart as it was jestingly called on Twitter ;)
TVC:SPXShort
by TheDarkEconomist
GME-style Returns in a Fortnight (UUP calls)There are compelling indicators that we are on a verge of a February 2021 market correction and the USD is expected to breakout due to investors moving from equities to bonds and USD. The VIX index and 10 year bond yield have increased significantly recently. 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.149% booked its largest weekly rise since June. A rising USD is another sign of impending liquidity crunch, debt implosion and stock market crash/ correction. It might mean people are demanding cash and supply is short. UUP.NYSE (consists 100% of Mar21DXH1/Dollar Index based on Invesco Product Detail Statement) is selected for the purpose of this research. It is evident from the chart that UUP has ‘predicted’ the March 2020 market crash and September and October 2020 market correction. The red flags are bullish UUP RSI rising towards the 70-80 range (a sign indicating smart money might be hedging their bets) and sustained MACD line (BLUE) movements above the MACD signal line (RED). Those two signals occur well ahead of the market crash and corrections, the RSI has 100% accuracy based on the most recent market dynamics. Moreover, February is the second worst month in the history of markets after September according to records dating back to 1928. Gamestop aftermath and Robinhood CEO testifying before Congress on February 19th might present uncertainty and trigger market sell-off. Lawmakers with stance similar to Kevin O’Leary (Democrat-Massachusetts Secretary of State) are expected to make headlines in the near future under the façade of ‘preventing little guys (retail investors) from getting hurt’ reducing retail investors margin and increasing current margin requirements (thus reducing investors firepower). COVID vaccine news have been priced in but vaccine shortage and constraints remains and investors might want to book into their profits. . Recent major indices futures are pointing down too and indicate the bullish momentum is falling. It might be a good time to hedge the market now through VIX or/ and UUP. VIX and UUP moves in the same direction but UUP calls are currently pennies with low implied volatility. UUP 19 Feb $ 26 calls are currently priced at $ 0.01, if UUP hits $26 on Feb 19, the profit and loss will be $ 4000 (on a $ 1000 investment) and $ 99,000 ($ 1000 investment) if UUP hits $ 27. opcalc.com
AMEX:UUPLong
by Trifecta_Capital_LLC
1
Gold-Copper Ratio, (very) LONG; This WAS the top of equities ...... most likely. Let's reason for a second. (Despite all the noise out there.) The title chart is the Monthly Gold/Copper Ratio, e.g. is very powerful. (It does not tend to turn on a dime!) This has just completed the month of Jan. 2021. 1) It has finished the month by completing a Bullish Hammer, bouncing off of the (very) round number / level of 500; 2) It did so exactly at the 78% retracement of the March 2020 highs - i.e. Pandemic equity lows; Then, instead of continuing down (equities continuing to rally) it did turn "on a dime" and finished in a Bullish Hammer - raring to go higher, i.e. equities lower. 3) As of this moment, the above picture, provides one with two distinct possibilities. a) That massive (Monthly!!) Bearish Deep Crab is going to bear down it's target at the - very - round 1000, e.g. sending the SP500, Dow and Nasdaq to a better than >65% Decline; (Most likely!) b) This ratio is going to trace back, close to the March, 2020 highs - Pandemic Equity lows - where it's going to reverse and rise, once again. I.e. The test of the March, 2020 equity lows are going to hold. Either way, the significant take away here is this; Unless these most recent Equity Index highs are taken out very soon - e.g. with this next month - Equities are headed strait to test the March, 2020 lows, where the obvious question remains: Will those hold? Have a nice day and stay short equities! Here is the Weekly chart;
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Nemo_Confidat
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Short SetupSPX500 Short Trade Entry: $3,866.6 TP & RR: $3,840.5 (1.13) Stop Loss: $3,889.7 REASONS FOR THE TRADE Straight off the bat, you notice two things here - ascending channel and opening a position against the trend with what I consider a bad Risk:Reward Ratio of just over 1. However, I believe that price can form a double top with bearish divergence, retrace back to the lower trendline and then continue up. Of course, we will be looking to open a long order somewhere at the lower trendline. Stop Loss is set pretty high in case there's a fakeout. However, we will close the position if there's a convincing close above the recent high.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Quant_