SPY downside targets In case of a continued pullback I think the below targets are likely, based on confluence of fibs, volume profile, and price action.
Sp500short
S&P 500 Ascending Channel - Short SetupSPX500 Short Trade
Entry: $3,866.6
TP & RR: $3,840.5 (1.13)
Stop Loss: $3,889.7
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Straight off the bat, you notice two things here - ascending channel and opening a position against the trend with what I consider a bad Risk:Reward Ratio of just over 1. However, I believe that price can form a double top with bearish divergence, retrace back to the lower trendline and then continue up. Of course, we will be looking to open a long order somewhere at the lower trendline.
Stop Loss is set pretty high in case there's a fakeout. However, we will close the position if there's a convincing close above the recent high.
SP500 - SHORT; SELL it here!With the credit spreads looking like they're about to blow out, equities don't stand much of a chance here, either. Look for at least a >-11% dive here.
.... or ... SELL the Nasdaq100 ...
... as it doesn't look much different, either. A little difference without much distinction.
Here is an other clue;
S&P 500 Exhaustion - Sell OrderSPX500 Short Position
Entry: $3,865.0
TP & RR: $3,828.3 (1.95)
Stop Loss: $3,883.8
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Clear divergence in the Market Flow indicator and we are reaching a trendline, which I believe will act as resistance. SL is set well above it, so we give the trade some space to breathe and hopefully develop as we expect. Target is set at the previously established resistance, which should now act as support.
S&P 500 Reaches a Level of Resistance - Short TradeSPX500 - Short Position(s)
Entries: $3,784.4 / 3826.8
TP & RR: $3,728.8 (3.29 / 4.12)
Stop Loss Levels: $3,801.3 / $3,850.6
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
I think it's time for the SPX500 to take a break from this bull run. As such, I am expecting that price will reach either of the two levels that I would like to short. The Risk:Reward Ratio is favorable and the Stop Loss is just above the invalidation levels.
Now, you may be wondering why the SL of the first short is not placed higher, somewhere around the second order's SL. The problem is in the Risk:Rewards Ratio. If I am to do that, I will need to adjust my position size to account for the bigger gap between entry and SL. Also, the RRR of 3.29 will fall down to 0.84. So, even if I short from the first level and the setup proves to be valid, I will increase my capital by less than 1%, compared to over 3% if I keep the trade as it is.
Even if the first setup is invalidated, and we open a profitable short on the second level, the profit of 4.12R will compensate for the 1R loss and we will be at a profit of 3.12R. Of course, it would be unpleasant to lose 1% of the account, but that's just how trading works. You either take the risk or you lose the chance.
On a side note, since it's Monday, I am not placing those as limit orders, rather I have set alerts at the levels. When we reach them I will look at the volume, the 1h candle close, and will update the idea. We don't want to blindly place orders and hope for the best.
SP500 could correct to 3500, I'm waiting for confirmationSince the "election all-time high" just under 3700, SP500 continued its rise, but this is anemic to say the least with the index gaining around 3% in the past 2 months.
The rise is in a tight channel which for me is an indication of an imminent reversal.
A break under this channel's support can be the signal for sellers and 3500 is a very modest target for this trade(I believe it will drop harder)
S&P500 : The completion of the Diagonal patternIn240 minutes chart of the uptrend from the range of 3511 to 3833 is in the form of 3 waves which confirms the scenario of the formation of the Diagonal pattern.
Currently, to get the the confirmation of the downtrend,the price should not cross the range of 3841,because the 3rd wave should not be shorter than the other waves.
By crossing the price from this range,this scenario will be violated.
Thee confirmation for this pattern will be received by the formation of 5 descending waves,and by crossing the price from the range of 3660.
According to monitored position, personally,I set the short order.
By considering the RSI you can also see the convergence
SP500 correctionShort in the early spring when it hits the red line, expect a mini correction on bad earnings reports. Target 3400.
S&P500 on 2 major timeframesIn the two timeframes we can see that the SPX index is undecided.
We received a sell signal on the 4hours, but the S&P remains bullish on the daily timeframe.
Please leave me a message if you want to test the buy and sell indicators that i am using.
ES_F is about to crashThere are no more higher targets for me. Here are possible lower targets.
Disclaimer: This is not financial and investment advice
Stay safe, trade safe.
Atilla Yurtseven
SPX500 - end of the line soon/ correction pendingThe 1.618 extension is fairly close, the indicators lack conviction and the price has been crawling up on low volume.
I think we should go down for a healthy correction to test the market psych. I would slowly start booking profits here and there.
ES (SP500) Short Setup (4th dec 20)Hi traders,
I'm bearish today (and monday) and you can find my targets and price action prediction on the chart.
Disclaimer: This is not a financial, trading or investment advice
PS: Remember to follow me, like and drop some comments
Stay healthy, trade safe.
Atilla Yurtseven
Interesting theory on SPY: possible ST short?Bear case (just a theory): If we take a look at time and space on this daily chart, 25 bars (35 days) for the trough-peak-trough before the election. If we take the FDA talk on the vaccine for the same whatever reason, I believe there is a possible downside of ~9% until Dec 9th, a trough-peak-trough total of 29 bars (36 days).
- Yellow trend line act as support.
- Volume has been a downtrend.
- The two overheard white trendlines represent a strong resistance on the daily and weekly charts. (candles move easier towards less resistance direction)
- Technically only tested bottom support twice (red shadow or yellow trendline), possibly the third time?
- Small rsi divergence on weekly.
Bull case: Priced in. Spy looking to break overheard trendlines or move closely with it.
- Tested the overhead trendlines three times with the last retest completed, possibly going higher. (green arrow)
- Options pricing in more downward risks but not so much upside risk. (this is normal due to the nature of hedging) pasteboard.co
- For educational purpose: www.tastytrade.com
- Some of the macros: 10yr yield steady uptrend, low vix, gold downtrend, dollar going for new low since march.
Just a theory, will keep my longs on, may just short with an option contract or two to defend downside risk.
SP500Looks like classic W bottom to me, at this level all the bulls need are some shorts to yolo short this market thinking sp500 will dump down to that bottom range 3250.
Then guess what boom to 4k lmao.
Well we shall see im in the crypto space watching the alts big boom coming soon.
I would not short here though.
Like playing Russian Roulette.
GL guys.
SPX S&P500 possible selloff? Bearish signalsI look at the indicators on both higher and lower timeframes (2hours respectively the daily timeframe) and i see strong sell signals doubled by both indicators.
It`s hard to predict the S&P, but it looks like a bearish continuation for the time being.
If you are interested to test some amazing BUY and SELL INDICATORS, which give the signal at the beginning of the candle, not at the end of it, just leave me a message.
S&P500 daily- Bearish divergence on RSIS&P500 daily- Bearish divergence on RSI, and hitting resistance within Broadening Wedge pattern.
The inescapable Financial Collapse; A 4-Dimensional analysisThis is the SP500 / Gold / the US Dollar / a G10 Composite Currency Index / Time / Price, all of it, all at once! - Lets call it: Universal Value. - Shall we...
This is a 2-Dimensional projection (being on a flat computer screen, after all :-) of a 3-Dimensional "Slice" of a 4-Dimensional space. - So try to visualize it. (Not as difficult as it first may seem.)
Envision a box with only 4 sides - i.e.: a tunnel - which constitutes the entire Universe, in which everything exists, and the only option for interaction with said universe is to twist the walls freely, into any desired configuration, along the tunnel's principal axis - in this case the horizontal, Time axis.
This is a broad-strokes, yet, reasonably accurate depiction of the concept of: Value. - In this case, projected onto the SP500 Index.
"How does one escape such a tunnel where one's options are duly limited (mathematically and physically) to only twist the walls of such a tunnel?" - You ask...
It is literarily impossible, so good luck with that!
Thus, cheer on, trade the hell out of it and take every last fool for everything they got! (Then run. :-)
... and just in case: There is no "Plan B"!
Here is a likely better - not "shifted" - view, ...
... of the "financial Universe" projected onto the SP500.
SPXS$4.30 double bottom could be the sweet spot or it could just fail and SP500 goes to 4000. Im watching
