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Sp500short

US500- Keylevels - DailySpectacular comeback for us500, but now let's see what will happen next week. It seems that it manages to close both the week and the day well and thus leaves room for another climb up to the area of 4398-4400. Here we have an ultimate test for buyers, let's see if they want to leave and collect the profits or if they will still stay in the game. Buyers must show strength at that level as well. As I see the price action, I would like to see a rejection from 4400, followed by a retest of the support from where to take new liquidity and where I will also be a buyer.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by sfc95
SPY - S&P500 - ES: Beware of the reactionDid you made some NYSE:S too following my posts? Great. But... ...now is the time to beware of the slingshot. See, price has fallen quite nicely and we are all happy campers. Now we have to defend our short position, the ground we gained. And here's why: Although price still trades within the red down-sloping Fork, there are some signs that, soon price has reached it's Max-Stretch, which is when P5/0 is in. Could be at the sliding parallel below the Center-Line, or if a little panic hit's the Market, at the L-MLH. From there, the swing count start new, but this time to the upside. We know that if price zoomed through a Center-Line, the potential for a pullback to it is a given fact. From there, price could continue to the downside, or jumps above it and closes above it. That will be a very obvious sign that price has turned to the upside-swing again. Facts: 1. Price has reached the red CL 2. RSI is oversold 3. P5 could be in 4. POC of the Volume-Profile acts as Support On the Weekly picture, price still has a long way to go, until it reaches the Center-Line of the Pendulum-Swing Fork. At the time of this writing about another 400 Points, to 3800/3750. For now, just be alert to protect your profits. Remember: You can't always eat the whole Cake! Better letting the S&P500 reload and then shoot from higher levels again and give our self another Christmas Gift. §8-) Peace4TheWorld
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
A massive selldown is potentially coming for #SP500As the chart progresses, old post was shared wayback Dec 2022 when the index has completed the Wave A leading Diagonal, the 1st impulse of the 3-wave corrective of the bigger cycle. Currently, Wave B might have already topped off on the rejected 4600 zone. I'm seeing a potential 3rd and the last impulsive of the greater corrective cycle which is at an unbelievable level estimated to be around 3276 by May of 2024 as target of the time completion. Disclaimer: Not a financial advise. Idea is only based from the analyst's perspective applying Wave and Time Theories.
TVC:SPXShort
by marketpainterPH
Next Leg Down, Top Next WeekLooks like Minor wave A likely finished today, next up is Minor wave B. Models point to 18-22 hours of possible duration which will likely see the bottom on Thursday. There are a three pockets of interest for the bottom. I used the green box (4281-4294) for the more conservative zone, yellow (4255-4275) for the more aggressive zone and my target is the white box (4270-4285) straddling both boxes. Depending how Minor wave B plays out, Minor wave C and Intermediate wave 4 are currently projected to end early next week between 4355-4390. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
S&P500 on the way to the projected levelHere we are, seeing the projection I posted on my site and here becoming reality. P4 was slightly above the Center-Line. How price is falling through it. Next Target is P5. Either the Warning-Line, or the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. In between I expect a bounce up to the Centerline. Also, keep in mind that we could get a HAGOPIAN! That means, if price is not reaching the L-MLH, and pulling back above the CL, then possibilities are up for a huge move to the North. I took partial profits as shown in my last video on YT today. The rest is riding down to one of the targets. Steak & Lobster Baby! §8-) Wish you all a happy day.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Week starts up, before short bear runCurrent assumption is that Minute waves A and B are complete and the final Minute wave C should bring the market up early this week to complete Minor wave 4. The high for the week should occur prior the close on Tuesday. This analysis will point out the levels and locations to monitor for this event. An early peek of Intermediate wave 3’s final projection is also included. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points, but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly more broad, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. MINUTE WAVE C For the Minute wave C finishing points, estimated end is between the final hour of trading on Monday through the final hour on Tuesday. The general level for the top is 4345-4360, quite a bit of data points to the 4355-4360 area, there is another pocket between 4370-4380 which is the red box. I am not looking for the top that high, but the data says it is possible so it is important to be aware of it. MINOR WAVE 4 Minor wave 4's target box is the larger yellow box (Minute wave C in Minor 4 was the green box which included the white box). The yellow box was larger before the Minute waves inside of it traded. The overlap of both Minute wave C and Minor 4 end points favors the white box which is my target. Once Minor 4 is over, the market should head down to finish Intermediate wave 3 with Minor wave 5. I will forecast Minor wave 5, once data is available and pointing to the completion of Minor 4. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 Intermediate wave 3 will finish with Minor wave 5 and the updated forecast places the now doable target box between 4040-4140. Strongest data is between 4080-4105 which I will assign as the current target. Back at 4450, 4150 seemed like a long shot, but time and a strong third wave make it possible. Short-term jubilation could see the upward finish of Minor wave 4 IF a government shutdown is averted as the current downside to this event is a drop in the US credit rating. Typically, government shutdowns are welcomed and positive for the market, but the country has not been under the threat of a credit downgrade should the event occur. Inflation numbers were up on Friday and should continue to look bad through the end of Intermediate wave 3. The $20+ rise in oil over the past 2 months has not significantly impacted the price of goods yet, the OPEC meeting this week could assist in tipping those scales and sending the market into Minor wave 5 down. Still unsure what causes Intermediate wave 4 to take markets upward from mid-October through likely mid-November. SCHEDULED ECONOMIC NEWS: Monday will have manufacturing data and Fed speakers while not much on Tuesday. This could point to the gains being more on Monday and slowing on Tuesday if not already reversing. Wednesday is a heavy news day. United States PPI data comes out October 11, which is around the projected time of the market bottom and end of Intermediate wave 3. CPI is the following day. If this is the start of the market reversal and movement upward, it would appear the September inflation numbers did not rise. Next FOMC meeting is end of October and could be a key event for the end of Intermediate 4’s rise and begin the next monthlong market drop.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
[EN] W Recession in SP500 // GaliortiTradingThe next crisis will be very similar to that of the 2000-2010 period. At first, the economic crisis will condition a bursting of the technology and fast-growing stock bubble, only to be followed by a financial crisis after a short-lived recovery. First floor: first quarter of 2025 . SP:SPX = 2.470 Second floor: second quarter of 2030 : SP:SPX = 2.100 Soft landing for the next quarters? Don't believe it! Bond market losses, office real estate in USA crisis, Citibank surprise indicators plummeting, manufacturing PMI, investment rate curve , real estate crisis and economic slowdown in China, historical record of credit card defaults (consumer collapse), cash flow difficulties of medium and small banks , reduction of the balance sheet of the FED and other major central banks , the effect of higher oil prices on the economy (restriction of oil production by Saudi Arabia/Russia), increase in the cost of r efinancing the huge public debt due to high interest rates, ....
SP:SPXShort
by GaliortiTrading
Mr. S&P500, it's decision time again.So, here we are, below the red Center-Line. What now? If the Bears are successful, then we go south. Target is the at least the white Warning-Line, or the red Lower-Medianline-Parallel. What ever is hit first. On the other hand, P3 could be in and we get a bounce up for a re-test to P4. This is a tricky situation. Even more because the Nasdaq looks ready for a rebound. What shall we do? To me it's clear: - if I short it, then my stop is above the CL. I don't know where yet, but it will not be super close. I rather play it with Options to give my idea more time, even if we get a bounce for a re-test of the L-MLH (gren) or the white WL. - If I wait for more information, I accept the potential for not being on the Submarine if it tanks. What would I loose? Nothing - there's always another trade. - And finally, on a re-test of the green L-MLH/WL, I can stalk a short from there. Isn't that relaxing, to have so much opportunities? §8-) Play it save Tr8dingN3rds.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Gap Down Thursday, Up Fri, Down Monday?We will try to fit a few analyses into this one. First and foremost is forecasting the end of Minor wave 3 assuming Minor wave 2 ended in the first hour of trading on September 11. Based on historical models for Minor wave 3s inside of Intermediate wave 3s, the minimum movement extension was 119.45%, quartiles are 144.66%, 160.615%, and 197.56%, with a max move at 261.87%. The models agree the most on a durations of 15, 22, and 25 trading hours. Secondary agreement is at 16, 23, 28, 38, and 46 horus. A broader set of data based on waves ending in C133 has a minimum at 147.27%, median of 200.135%, third quartile at 209.98%, and maximum at 350.33%. The duration models agree the most at 21 trading hours with secondary at 42 hours, and third scattered at 13 and 25-38 hours. The broadest data has quartile movement extensions at 141.03%, 180.29%, and 230.56%. Duration models agree the most at 21 hours, secondary of 42 hours, third at 28 hours, fourth at 18 hours, fifth at 35 hours. Minor wave 3 levels are on the right. The market is moving quite slow to hit any of these levels which eludes to two obvious choices: 1) The market is not in Minor wave 3 yet; 2) A large drop is coming within the next few trading days. The first theory would be confirmed if the market moves above 4490.77 before breaking below 4430. The second option would likely see a gap down at the open on Thursday, Friday, or Monday. The low so far was 14 bars into the purported Minor wave 3. The market close on September 13, was hour 20. The high end of potential lengths was 42 hours which would occur on September 19 in the first hour of trading. Based on this data and assuming Minor wave 3 is correct, the bottom could occur early next week around 4350. If the current low point in Minor wave 3 was the end of Minute wave 1, and the top a few hours later was the end of Minute wave 2, then Minute wave 3 could do the following and the levels are outlined on the left. Based on Minute wave 3s in Minor wave 3s in Intermediate wave 3s, the quartile movement extensions are 121.14%, 143.025%, and 193.34%. Duration models agree the most at 6, 10, 12, 17 and 36 hours long. Secondary agreement is at 8-9 and 18-35. Based on waves ending in 1333, quartile movement extensions are 148.92%, 182.64%, and 276.57%. Duration models agree the most at 12 and 14 hours with secondary at 28 hours. Third is 24 hours while fourth is 8 and 18 hours. The broader dataset has quartile movement extensions are 148.35%, 183.46%, and 247.14%. Duration models agree the most at 14 hours, second at 12 hours, third at 8 and 28, fourth is 16, fifth is 24 hours, sixth is 42 hours and seventh at 6. Minute wave 1 may have been 14 hours, and the same for Minute wave 3 would place the bottom in the first hour of trading on Friday. The path to Minor 3 still looks do able but it would have to start with a gap down tomorrow, likely based on an increase in the August PPI number. Minute wave 3 could bottom in the final hour of trading on Thursday or within the first hour on Friday below 4420 before the market rises the rest of Friday to end Minute wave 4 and the final Minor wave 3 bottom is set for late Monday or early Tuesday. Any deviation to this plan should invalidate the current wave positioning. Minor wave 3 could be a little longer and drawn out, but it would require a deeper bottom than the projected 4350 neighborhood.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5
S&P500 - 0 To 5 Count seems to confirm the ShortIn my previous post, I said that we have a short at hand in the SP500/ES. 1. ES Trigger Candle Bearish That was before P0 2. ES has reached the TOP for now That was at P3 In both postings price was not able to reach at least the Warning line (dashed white). Now we have the 0 to 5 count confirming what happens when price trades below a Medianline, in this case the L-MLH where at P3 price banged it's head. So, what now? At P3 price was testing the L-MLH. Now we will get a re-test at "P5 & Trun". From there, another short is on the plate and I will load the boat probably on a intraday basis priceaction. Is it possible that price will trade back into the Fork? Sure, that happens now and then. And it could also this time. That's why we have to trade accordingly and use our Money/Risk management to protect our capital. I'm in holiday, so there won't be as many updates as normally. Trade save & t'care out there.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Tr8dingN3rd
1
S&P500 -ES has reached the Top for now.This is my 100% believe, that the S&P500 has reached at least a temporary high. From here we will go down, at least to the dashed WL (Warning Line). We had the Open & Close below the Lower Medianline Parallel. But price couldn't reach the WL. So, that means we had a HAGOPIAN cooking. A HAGOPIAN means, that price will go further in the opposite direction than from where price came. And this rule was right. SP500 was going up like there is no tomorrow. Just stupid buying all the way. Today it found it's wall, banging it's had on the Lower Medianline Parallel. This was the first Test. As we know, price can create multiple tests before dropping down. I was observing price action the last couple weeks and it was Insanity at it's best. Be it from Algos or HFT's, I don't care. I just follow my rules and currently they say: <<< IT's OVA >>> So, I follow my Medianline/Fork Rules and I'm Short. The target is as of my rules, the next Line, which is the Warning Line. Interestingly it's also where price intersects with the bigger (Green) Pendulum Swing Fork. Let's have a Christmas experience §8-)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
SHORTING $SPY (MARKETS ARE OVERBOUGHT?)Why I am bearish on the S&P 500? - WBR Forecast indicator is BEARISH - We are entering a key zone which we've struggled to breakout from for the past 5 months. - Jim Cramer is bearish (Usually not a good thing lol) #inversecramer My personal trade: Stop Loss / Take Profits: - Entry: $455.45 - Take Profit 1: $432.24 - Take Profit 2: $412.06 - Take Profit 3: $386.44 - Stop Loss: $464.89 The Plan: Scale 50% of position at Take Profit 1 (TP1) and move stop loss to TP1. Scale 50% of remaining position at Take Profit 2 (TP2) and move stop loss to TP2. Scale rest of position at Take Profit 3.
AMEX:SPYShort
by fluxchart
5
Time for a pullback before we consider the next moveIt does not seem to be enough to just get everyone bullish, we also needed the bears to give up. If this was the final short squeese we might just have ended the complacency stage. Some reasons why we could see a pullback now: 1. We exactly touched the fibonacci retrace level at 78.6% 2. We are at the top of a potential downward trend channel 3. Overbought 4. Red dot, indicating sell pressure 5. Global liquidity being drained
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by arcone
9
SPX did everything as per the plan, Where to now?I posted this chart just last week as part of my Major short setup going back weeks. Link to previous post in the description, please go through that setup to get the context. This is going to be a short post, since everything is going as per the plan we just have to wait and watch, Price back to where I expect either a break below or bounce to continue higher. So as per the plan If it's going to bounce now, I have highlighted two 30 mins demand zones. where I expect a bounce. Those two zones are also confluent with 0.786 and 0.886 fibs of the retracements. Apart from this chart it pretty is self-explanatory. Boost this post and leave me comment for any questions on this I'd be happy to explain.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by zakoraio