S&P 500 Look Out Below!The last time the RSI moved down to 38.52, briefly moved up, but returned to 38.52 was near the end of 2015. The index dropped 9.75% from the close on December 18th of that year to the eventual bottom. A 10% correction occurred by the time the bottom was found from the its most recent high.
We are more than aware this bull and rally is due to correct. Is it finally upon us? Today the RSI repeated the movement mentioned above. A similar 9.70% drop from today's close would bring the index to around 2195. The index made its last record high on August 8th. A 10% correction from 2490 would be around 2242. If we repeat the 9.75% drop as previously mentioned, this will clearly be a 10% correction for the index.
Not so fast! Before 2242 or 2195 can be met, there are other stronger levels of support that must be breached first. My first level of focus is at 2401. If the index breaks below this level, we are on our way to the next major support level at 2310. Only when 2310 is breached should we consider continued movement to the aforementioned 2242 and possibly 2195 levels.
In my opinion, valuations are high and overall EPS is meager. I have been a bear for over six months which has kept me away from major gains. However, I have not lost anything as I laid in wait. You only take losses when you close your positions. If you miss out on a rally, but did not enter it, you lost nothing. I have been waiting for shorting signals, which I believe are finally seeing the light of day.
I have puts on SPY and QQQ, while buying calls on the VIX when it was trading sub-8. The VIX could only go one direction when it was below 8. All of this waiting is finally paying off. Will it pay off for you?
Sp500short
SPX - a short opportunity?SPX appears to be entering a diamond top on the daily time scale. The pattern formation is average or perhaps slightly below average - I would much prefer to see multiple trendline on both sides of it and a cleaner overall diamond shape. An additional weakness is the strong buying power displayed over the last four days of trading, with prices closing far north of the daily low each time. There is still some significant bullish sentiment reflected there. Price action has tightened up somewhat on the last half of the diamond as should be expected, and a strong downward breakout would confirm the pattern. If you're looking to short it, I personally wouldn't take a short position until the breakout. Because of the weaknesses discussed above I wont be entering at all.
I'm a firm believer that "Its better to see a trade you wish you were in than to be in a trade that you wish you weren't".
SP500 100-150 point correction in 2 months*Weekly Time Frame*
Setup can take 2 months to show.
Also the Daily Time Frame shows some bullish movement, when the daily time frame also turns bearish its time to short sp500 for 100-150 points, maybe more if the lower range breaks.
When the Daily Time Frame turns bearish I shall also update this idea.
A broke of the range followed by some small side ways trading was always followed by a drop down.
Now its showing the same setup again while also the Stoch Rsi looks bearish and Adx shows the bullish trend gets weaker.
This tells me that in about 2 months the SP500 will show a small correction of aroun 100 points and maybe more if it also breaks the lower range which has remained intact for over a year so far.
When the daily time frame also turns bearish its the perfect timing to short the SP500. I shall update this idea when that happend and also a shall publish a new idea based on the daily time frame.
Breaking 66 could lead us to 60you may trade VIX etf for a short term, a littile adventure is beyond.
S&P500 SHORTHi there,
With Trump's protectionist rhetoric, we could see the big guys taking profit out of stocks. S&P500 should then be on a new track lower. Right? Some stocks may still do well, but companies like Apple should certainly see profits declining over the next few years. Won't be a crash though. A steady trip South, stopping off at a few stations a long the way. :-) Opinions welcome brave souls.. :-)
S&P500 (ES) - GLOBAL FORECAST on 2017y.We suggest two variants:
1) if Extension in 3-d wave - short term correction & uptrend! (Inval.lev - 2077.00)
2) if LDT - Correction & uptrend! (Inval.lev - 1810.00)
Excuse us! ) We are so lazy to write some more!!! ))
Sure the Real Pro Trader, should be Laconic & Concrete...)))
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SP500 Swing High - Short opportunitySimple short trade setup. Seeing resistance at the 2272 level, let's see if it works again.
Look for an hourly bar to close below the green line - breaking the inside bar setup - and enter short. Use lower timeframes if you prefer to refine your entry.
Target lower red line initially, but beyond that look for new lows. There's a good case that a reversal is due on longer timeframes too, so could turn into a great entry if well managed.
S&P 500 Index @ 1h Chart @ incl. XLF & XLE since Trump ElectionPerformance of the SPX, XLF & XLE - end of last month (November`16)
closed by 2034.5 SPX (round about +8,08% this Year & -1,505% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
closed by 18.95 XLF (round about +18,79% this Year & 13,63% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
closed by 60.16 XLE (round about +23,72% this Year & -6,752% year to year Nov`15 until Nov`16)
Both sectors had the worst performance the last years, while Obamas presidents time.
Aftermath is all clear, i also didn`t except an outbreak like this. But since this month - i am prefering to see the lows in some shares (even of both sectors) as an buying oppurtunity. Why ??? Let it me so explain ... Under president Trump i can`t imagine that our new president will make policy against both sectors - even forcing laws to shoot their expansion ambitions down. "The Occupy WallStreet Movement was aftermath the all-time high of all anti WallStreet Americans - in the review even maybe the bing gang of make american great again - from the top to the button ... even from wallstreet to every american consumer and tax payer"
How ever,
i am not an political analysis or even expert - but the chart is speaking fo itself.
From this point of views i am prefering the US Yields (Gold as hedge is useless), US Equities & even some sectors (even like Energy & Financials).
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
If Trump winsIf trump wins I expect a market crash, around -8% from the current index price to summer 2015 lows, around 1920. To enter a short position though, I will wait for the MACD on weekly to send a sell signal, at which point the loss for the markets could extend further than 8%. I will make sure to keep an eye on 200DMA because a new president means that many long-term investors will be shifting their portfolio composition.
S&P500: Elections doomsday?Let me start off by saying I don't think a crash (-10%+) will occur before election day. Still as experienced in previous election cycles, usually two to one week before election day markets tend to sell-off as there is high uncertainty associated with presidential elections. I am basing this possible short play totally on technical and news factors; namely elections. The MACD on the daily is about to crossover and the stoch managed to reverse before 75%. This combined with the fact that the price broke the diagonal support (fib) and that the time cycles point to a new DCL on NOV 8th lead me to believe this week will offer an opportunity for shorts, mainly volatily calls to make you some money.