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Sp500short

Market Tops Tomorrow?The index never dropped today, which points to the second thesis that we were already in the final Minor wave 5 upward. The SP:SPX is not clear on position and waves, however, the futures are much clearer. This 15 minute chart outlines the possible Minor wave 4 path from start to finish along with current position in Minor wave 5. The bottom for the market was the low from July 20th. This means wave 5 is 2 days old and tomorrow is day 3. Typically wave 5 should move beyond prior wave 3 endpoints. In this case, if Minute wave 3 is in the books (green iii on chart), the market should move above that prior high (July 24) and the prior high established from Minor wave 3 (yellow 3) from July 19. Tomorrow could be a big day of moves with a possible top during the day or on Wednesday pre-Federal Reserve. Assuming we have completed at least Minute wave 3 with the high from July 24, Minute wave 4 could do the following based on hourly data. Based on waves ending in C554, the movement retracement quartiles are 29%, 38.94%, and 60.85%. Models agree the most with Minute wave 4 lasting 1 or 2 hours. Second agreement is at 3 or 4 hours, third is 0 hours, fourth is 6 hours. Based on waves ending in 554, the quartile retracements are 19.68%, 41.47%, and 53.75%. Strongest model agreement has the wave lasting 1 hour (117 models), with second most agreement at 2 hours (91 models), third place is drastically weaker at 0 hours (68 models), and the models are even weaker with 18 of them at 6 hours, 17 at 3 hours, and 16 at 5 hours. Based on waves ending in 54, the quartiles are at 23.17%, 36.355% and 54.07%. Length is 1 hour (581 models), 2 hours (411 models), 0 hours (379), 3 hours (111), 4 hours (95), 6 hours (90). Based on historical data for Minute wave 4 inside Minor wave 5 inside Intermediate wave 5, Minute wave 4 retracement quartiles are 19.53%, 42.535%, and 43.14%. Duration is strongest at 1 hour, then 2 hours, and then 5 hours. The chart currently has Minute wave 4 at 1 hour long and the retracement is near the third quartile or further end of historical data. This could mean Minute wave 4 has already been completed. Furthermore, Minute wave 5 is already 1 hour old. Another factor to note is the length of Minute wave 1 was 6 hours and Minute wave 3 was only 5 hours. A major rule of this wave theory is that wave 3 cannot be the shortest in length. This would require Minute wave 5 (already being 1 hour old) should not be longer than 5 hours total. However, during studies of micro waves this rule has been broken multiple times and may not be a limiting factor in the current instance. There is still a chance the market drops in the first hour of trading below the current Minute wave 4 low of 4547.47 in which case the data in the next paragraph is an hour later than it is stated. Regardless, tomorrow is lining up for the market top. What does the historical data indicate could happen assuming Minute wave 4 has completed? Based on waves ending in C555, the quartile movement extensions are 121.06%, 134.44%, and 171.99%. Models agree the most at 2 hours long, secondary is 1 hour long, third is 5 hours long (possible max based on rule wave 3 cannot be shortest), fourth is 4 hours, fifth is 6 hours. Based on waves ending in 555, the quartile movement extensions are 118.44%, 130.21%, and 159.05%. Model agreements for lengths are 1 hour (114 models), 2 hours (96), 3 hours (60), 5 hours (38), 4 hours (34), 0 hours (28), 7 hours (20). Based on waves ending in 55, the quartile extensions are 113.1%, 126.06%, and 154.92%. The forecasted lengths are 1 hour (626 models), 2 hours (494 models), 3 hours (230), 4 hours (185), 5 hours (174), 0 hours (161), and 6 hours (142). The final dataset is for Minute wave 5s inside of Minor wave 5s, inside of Intermediate wave 5s where the extension quartiles are 106.40%, 121.955%, and 152.06%. Modelled duration is 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours, and 6 hours. The levels for Minor wave 5 are the right most items on the chart above. If Historical data holds true, we may barely make it to 4578 (the current high from Minor wave 3), and north of 4585 does not look possible. After the close are big tech earnings which normally have a bullish push into it. We shall see what happens. If tomorrow is not the top and/or Minute wave 4 or Minor wave 4 decide to return to life, I will analyze more tomorrow night.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Time To Drop After Tuesday's Nice Pop?Assuming we are early into the long trip downward would put us somewhere in the early stages of Cycle wave C down, Primary wave 1 down, Intermediate wave 2 up. This would have made Intermediate wave 1 down 5 trading days long with a 120.39 point drop. Based on waves ending in C12, Intermediate wave 2 will last 1 day. There are zero other possible lengths. The quartile movements (blue levels on left) are 27.99%, 50.12%, and 56.51%. Based on waves ending in 12, strongest model agreement for length remains at 1 trading day and second strongest by a lot is 2 trading days. Quartile retracement levels (yellow lines) are at 27.99%, 42.03%, and 66.20%. Tuesday was the first official trading day of Intermediate wave 2. This is quite possibly the only trading day of wave 2. IF wave 2 achieves a new high tomorrow, Thursday would likely not see a new high for a very long time until we drop well below 4328 again. IF a new high is achieved tomorrow it may remain at or under 4400. IF we break above 4400 tomorrow, we may still be BACK in Cycle wave B as was identified in my most recent Devil’s Advocate Analysis. IF back in, well still in B, the market is either in the final Intermediate wave 4 Minor wave B up or the early stages of Intermediate wave 5 which would likely lead to a final market top within 2 weeks. If no new high is achieved and the market falls (likely based on all the Bank of England/Central Bank/Federal Reserve panels in Portugal) the market is in the early stages of Intermediate wave 3 down. This scenario would have seen Intermediate wave 2 last a single day and retrace 46.8% of Intermediate wave 1’s movement. Based on waves ending in C13, the quartile movement extensions of wave 1’s movement (blue levels farther on right) are 135.64%, 140.60%, and 165.83%. Most model agree on a length of 4-6 days, with secondary agreement at 7, 8, or 10 trading days long. Based on waves ending in 13, the quartile movement extensions (yellow) are 137.30%, 162.265%, and 198.02%. Models have strongest agreement on length at 5 days long, second is 1 or 4 days, third most agreement is 3 days, fourth is 7 days, fifth is 6 days, sixth is 2 or 10 days. Based on these models, the initial forecast is a possible market low late next week after the American holiday possibly below 4279 and probably not below 4240. This would equate to a drop of around 120 points in about 6 trading days. This is pretty much the same thing accomplished by Intermediate wave 1. Let us see how this plays out beginning with movement tomorrow.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
SP500 Bearish ScenarioThe #SP500 diverged 61% from the trend it had referenced since 1940. When we look at such divergences in history, we see that the index has returned to the reference trend. The beginning of this reversal is usually confirmed by a close below the SMA9 on the 3-month timeframe. This level is currently displayed as $4174. In a possible bear scenario, EMA60 or $2651 will guide us for the priority return level. Finally, EMA120, which is already at the same level as the reference trend level, will act as the last support. In addition, looking at the SP500 index in the daily time frame, the McClellan Oscillator, which has been working very successfully since 1900s, turned negative last week. However, another factor that can contribute to my analysis is that the monetary and fiscal policies made by HSBC today are not compatible with the bond and stock markets, and that the current recession will go further.
SP:SPX
by YavuzAkbay
Bottom targets if moving downBased on the theory the market has topped, the following is what we should roughly see next. There is still a chance Cycle B is not completed and I will outline what that could look like later this week or next. A few of those theories have us in only Intermediate wave 3 of Primary wave C of Cycle wave B up with the next possible market top around 4631. However, Intermediate wave 4 would bottom no lower than 4387, which it did on June 20th. Another theory for a long and drawn up Supercycle wave 2 would put the market in Intermediate wave 2 up in the early stages of Primary wave A down. This would be the case if Supercycle wave 2 were to trickle downward for 5+ years. For now we will stick with the beginning of Cycle wave C down. Position: Submillennial wave 1, Grand Supercycle 5, Supercycle 2, Cycle C, Primary A Heading: Downward Shorthand wave reference: 152CA. Cycle was C will also end Supercycle wave 2 so we will forecast what wave 2 could do based on the completion of Supercycle wave 1 and the relational history of waves ending in 152. I have Supercycle wave 1 beginning in March 2009 and ending January 2022. This saw the market gain 4,151.83 points over 3,252 trading days for a rise over run of 1.277. Based on these figures and waves ending in 152, Supercycle wave 2 could retrace the total points at the following quartile levels (light blue lines in the chart below). The first quartile of all movement would be at 25.37%, the median movement of all historical data is 45.71%, while the third quartile of historical retracements is at 75.67%. Based on the same wave data, the most model agreement is in Supercycle wave 2 lasting 1,626 trading days. Second most model agreement is on 4,878 trading days, while third is a large tie at 469, 813, 929, 976, 1,084, and 1,158 trading days. Based on a broader dataset for waves ending in 52, the movement quartiles (yellow levels below) are 33.43%, 50.17%, & 68.96%. The models agree the most on a length of 1,626 trading days in length, second is 3,252, third is 813, fourth is 1,084, fifth is a tie at 542, 765, 929, & 1,445. A general point of reference for those dates is: 469: November 15, 2023 765: January 20, 2025 813: March 27, 2025 929: September 1, 2025 976: November 10, 2025 1084: April 6, 2026 1158: July 20, 2026 1626: May 8, 2028 4878: October 1, 2040 On very rare occasions, a macro wave 2 exceeds the length of the preceding wave 1. This would likely take anything over 3,252 days off the table. Macro second waves tend to retrace between 38.6%-57.43% of the prior wave 1’s movement. This would place the bottom between 2434.22-3216.01. Here is the chart solely based on Supercycle wave 1’s data: My initial forecast would place the market bottom around 2740 by mid-September 2024. All retracement levels are on the main chart with labels on the right side. ========+++++++++++========+++++++++++======== Here are the stats using the data from completed Cycle wave A and possible completion of Cycle wave B: Wave A lost 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days for a rise over run of 6.805. Wave B gained 956.89 points over 168 trading days for a rise over run of 5.696. This was 86.15% of the duration of wave A and a 72.11% retracement of wave A’s movement. Based on waves ending in 152C, Cycle wave C could extend the following quartile levels (light blue labels on left side of main chart) of Cycle wave A’s movement—93.53%, 126.25%, & 139.10%. Of note, the longest historical movement extension was only 149.86% of wave A’s movement. The models do not show strong agreement on any lengths, however, a grouping between 312-336 trading days was noted. Based on a slightly broader set of data for waves ending in 52C, quartile levels (yellow lines) are 96.12%, 138.69%, & 144.22%. Once again, the maximum extension is 149.86%. The models agree on duration of 195, 224, and 336 trading days. There are zero levels of secondary model agreement, however, there is large grouping between 106-130 and other groupings at 162-168, 312-317, and 390-392. Lastly, based on the broadest dataset is waves ending in 2C. The quartile levels (white lines) are 109.83%, 132.02%, & 154.44%. Strongest model agreement for duration is at 168 and 195 trading days, secondary agreement at 98 days, third at 224, 292, and 390. The days for reference are: 98: November 6, 2023 112: November 27, 2023 168: February 16, 2024 195: March 27, 2024 224: May 8, 2024 292: August 15, 2024 312: Friday, September 13, 2024 336: October 17, 2024 390: January 3, 2025 These ranges introduce many possibilities. There is a downward trendline that had been providing resistance during Cycle wave A, that may provide resistance during the next downtrend. After reviewing all of the above data and finding intersection points with the trendline I am monitoring the following targets for now. If the bottom is November 27, 2023, the target may be around 3361. If the bottom is May 8, 2024, the target could be 2972.71. The targets thereafter are beyond the 149.86% threshold which has proven consistent thus far. A breach is always possible which would open the door to more targets of 2769 by August 15, 2024 and 2735 by September 13, 2024. The other targets lack intersection at this time. These are the initial estimates moving forward and continuing under the assumption the market has indeed topped at 4448. I will later map out the 5 wave structure to these bottoms to see which ones line up with current movement and additionally identify where we could move if we break above 4448 within the next 15 trading days. The best confirmation right now of us being in Cycle wave C and the final downward slope would be a break below 4048.28 before a move above 4448.47. The first level broken will confirm the next step.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Is tomorrow the day we predicted last year to be the market top?FOR THE FULL ANALYTICAL RIGOR THAT IS WORTH READING START HERE (otherwise skip to the section titled if you only care about the future “START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP”) It has been a long year since we got the program working, calculating probabilities, and identifying where we likely were in time. Sometime early 2022, I realized what would happen if we took all S&P 500 price data, applied structured Elliott Wave Theory to it, identified the relationships between all macro and micro wave structures, and determined our current location in time to forecast future movement. By early July 2022, I realized if we completed SubMillennial wave 1--Grand Supercycle 5--Supercycle 1 in January 2022, then I could take prior wave relationships to forecast the 3 waves inside of Supercycle 2 based on the data from Supercycle wave 1. This forecast can be found here: It forecasted the bottom of the first wave down (Cycle wave A) to end around October 18, 2022, the top of the second wave up (Cycle wave B) to end around mid-July 2023, and the final bottom (Cycle wave C and Supercycle wave 2) likely in the first quarter of 2025. I would update my program every time I believed waves completed and re-calculate these points and the movement over the next few weeks to months. Feel free to head to my profile to view all ideas. A few reversal points did occur earlier or later than forecasted at higher and lower levels, but I learned the original forecasts were normally the most accurate. One of the key places I rushed a forecast was as we got closer to October 18th I had the bottom occurring later in the October or closer to November. This August 20, 2022 analysis had the levels and days for the bottom spot on, but I temporarily went a different way. The relational data was proving more and more accurate. The actual bottom in October was on the 13th instead of the first forecast of the 18th. I finally accepted the bottom by December 5, 2022, once I went back to review my older analysis. From there the program continued to call waves out well, with Primary wave A happening lower than expected but on the date as seen in the December 5th analysis above. Primary wave B was long and the internal wave C never broke below the initial wave A which was confusing, however Primary wave B was forecasted on December 6th to occur in the middle of March and sure enough it occurred on March 13, 2023 as seen below: But after this original forecasting from the program I continued to attempt to find Primary B in many places after a traditional ABC wave down which never came. Finally by March 2, I reviewed my original analysis and updated Primary wave B to end around March 14 and it ended March 13 as seen here: Upon completion of Primary wave B, I forecasted the market top and end of Primary wave C. The forecasted date was June 16th no higher than 4403.88 as seen here: After the completion of Minor wave 2 inside of Intermediate wave 1, I updated the market top to June 20th, based on Intermediate wave 1 likely lasting longer than initially expected when Minor wave 1 ran long as seen here: At this time I loosely placed Intermediate waves 1-5 in their projected locations as well. The market top was re-adjusted again back to June 16th on April 9th as seen here: Intermediate wave 2 was forecasted on April 17th as was spot on on April 26th here: Intermediate wave 3 was much longer than expected after gaining 33% of the expected gain in the first day followed by being slow and trading sideways at times too which is very abnormal of a wave 3. By May 7, I had backed the market top back up to July and then debt ceiling chaos broke out. With the debt ceiling resolved Intermediate wave 3 was still slowly moving. Then my program threw me for the biggest curveball I could not believe and thought it was an error. Intermediate wave 3 had finally wrapped up. All preceding waves to that point had been 12-25 days long. In my wisdom, Intermediate wave 4 would likely be in the middle of that range. The program urged it would only be 2 days AND only retrace 15.06% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement. I was skeptical but went with it and said it could last 4 days. Intermediate wave 4 lasted only 3 days and after I adjusted the Fibonacci tool retracement levels, 15.06% said the bottom would be at 4261.479 as seen here: The actual bottom was 4261.07. Finally on June 8, 2023 Ziggy spits out the plan for Intermediate wave 5 as seen here: START HERE IF YOU SKIPPED THE TOP The models are pointing for Intermediate wave 5 to last between 3-5 days with the likely top around 4393.93. I chose 4 days and around but not likely over 4400. After all the projections and models and recalculations over the past year we are here. Still around 4400 and back to mid-June. AND it’s Fed day with some high expectations of no hikes and word of a future cut in 2023. Elation should follow if this happens, but what else is going on. Inflation since 2021 is now around 16% and has increased every month since mid-2021. Wages for everyone have not increased even close to 16%. Mortgages are around 7%, not many people rushing to trade their 2% mortgage for a 7% mortgage now. Students with loan need to start paying the piper as they begin to accrue new interest again. Those that did not wisely save their payments and collect interest on that money over the past two years are about to give up some luxuries which means retailers and restaurants are will soon see declining sales. Chaos bound to rattle the 2024 Presidential tickets is just gaining steam with outcomes unknown. Meanwhile the VIX was at its lowest level since pre-COVID last Friday signaling complacency in an economy that continues to lay off workers. All the numbers are not moving synchronously in the proper directions which likely precedes market corrections. In this case, based on all the data, this is likely the major bear market I identified last year. I can always be wrong, or we can go up a little higher before correcting. But I have learned my lesson to trust the original analysis and that says the top is in. It would be smart to not repeat 2008 and watch your retirement accounts and 401Ks plummet 50% when you have the opportunity to do something about it today. Maybe move to cash or something with less exposure to major companies and indices or the G Fund for you government employees. You may not make much money and can always switch it up if the program is wrong, or you can save your retirement and sit out of the market for 14-18 months until we find the bottom. While others begin recovering and realize they need to pick up a second job or leave retirement for work again (Tom Brady might not mind) to survive, you could then ride the next major bull market up. Follow me if you would like to see where the models take us moving forward.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
$DJT: Dow Jones Transportation Average Not Confirming The RunIf you wanted to know whether or not the market was on a bull run or not, all you had to do was look at the Dow Jones Transportation Average or even AMEX:RSP (which definitely does not fit the bull market, showing that overall the S&P 500 has barely broken 15% gain since October). More important though is the transportation average breaking off from the rally ahead of the rest of the market. When transportation is leading us lower this is not a good sign for the economy. Other economic indicators support this thesis. For example, cardboard box demand is the lowest it's been since 2008. Showing signs of a decline in goods demand. For more insights on trading and investing check out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple, Spotify and Amazon.
DJ:DJTShort
by D1Finance
QQQ: I might be wrong (Inverted Chart)I have been a staunch bear since about March. Since the lows expected a nice bounce but that we would resume the downtrend at some point. Nothing has convinced me that this market would not do anything besides have another period of pullbacks, until I inverted the QQQ today. From this perspective, I cannot help but see the very real possibility of a double top at the very least. At that point though, there is no reason we couldn't keep going and make new highs. The macro economic conditions are not ideal in the slightest but this might be the kind of bull that is largely absent retail and will say that way until we actually start to top. A bull, minus retail, is what this looks like. You are not having investors capitulate easily at all. Buyers have been positioned large and they plan on staying there for a while. Very hard to say. This is by far the hardest market to judge, that I personally have participated in. I am thinking about taking some long positions in certain companies, maybe even the Qs but I will be doing so cautiously.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Goontata84
1
Wyckoff Supply and DemandThe stock market crash of 1929, also known as the Great Crash, was a disastrous event for the American economy and marked the beginning of the Great Depression. It is highly unlikely that a similar situation will repeat itself exactly, as the lessons learned from those events have led to the implementation of policies and measures aimed at preventing such a major crisis. However, there are certain signs and contemporary economic trends that may raise concerns. For example, the high levels of public and private debt globally pose a significant challenge. Continued debt growth can lead to financial instability and restrict long-term economic growth potential. Furthermore, the performance of financial and stock markets can provide clues about the state of the global economy. During periods of strong economic growth, overheating can occur, which may lead to speculative bubbles. If these bubbles burst, significant market corrections can occur, impacting the real economy. Additionally, factors such as geopolitical instability, trade tensions, and abrupt fluctuations in commodity and raw material prices can influence the global economy and generate volatility in financial markets. To determine more precisely whether the current situation exhibits similarities to the stock market crash of 1929, a detailed analysis of multiple economic, financial, and political aspects at a global level is required. Moreover, experts and economists should further evaluate these aspects to make more accurate predictions.
FX:SPX500Short
by HoratiuBogdan
My personal analysis is logical to SPXThe price is upward, which indicates that the trend is upward, so we will search for buying, and I have placed the buying or selling points, in the event that the price breaks the level that was talked about, in order to know more about what the price might do, and I analyzed it in a technical and rational way . In the case of buying, we will wait for our order block to ease and fill the gaps, as well as the acquisition of liquidity, but in the case of selling, we will wait for the bottom to be broken, to confirm that the new trend has been formed and that we will become in a downward trend, and what confirms this to us is that the blood has come with the bottom that was created by If the price is broken, we will look to sell, and there is another support below it, and that support seems to be strong, so we will take the first target there, and we will wait for the price and we will wait for the price’s reaction to it. If we notice that it wants to change the direction, we will close all our deals. The long term, because if that level is broken, we will have a strong downside trend, because we will break strong support, which simply turns into resistance.
SP:SPX
by ESCANOR-ICT
SPY: FLUSH OR RALLY / MARKET BREADTH / MARKET MAKERS TIMINGDescription: In the chart above I have provided a semi-macro analysis of SPY that compares ongoing market rally and past rallies within the range of 420 & 360 Points. Points: 1. Price Action is fast approaching 420 Resistance that has been indicative of a turn around for past 4 rallies that failed to break the 420 LEVEL. 2. First 2 rallies under the 420 Level showed signs of congruence when it came to market breadth and price action. 3. Last 3 rallies including current one has shown divergence with market breadth along with a distinct pattern of consolidation that is followed by a sudden drop in price action. 4. It is important for price action to have another leg even if current uptrend is continued. First Price Target: 404.64 Bouncing Support Second Price Target: 400 Critical Support Market Breadth: 1. Showing strong signs of divergence with average price action continuing to rise. The Tech Sector is mainly responsible for the upholding of this rally with giants like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE fighting against bearish momentum. 2. For the majority of US INDICES Tech companies like AAPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, AMAZON, META, & GOOGLE represent a large majority of the holdings within many US INDICES. So it is no coincidence for why market breadth may appear weak when only a couple holdings are contributing to rallies meanwhile a large majority of the holdings are in the red. 3. Market Breadth Levels of 4200 have been indicative of volatile declines in price action in the past with an average incoming 10 POINT DECLINE over a day or two. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPYShort
by DGSTBROKERACC
S&p500 Golden Swing Opportunity We are in a very crucial zone in terms of time and price on Sp500 right now and people who make the right decisions will make money. But to make the right decisions you must look at the data and filter out all the noise and be patient. I have presented my case for incoming selloff a few times before and now it's all coming together. I have provided the links to my previous posts below, please go over them to get the full picture. I am building shorts in 4185 to 4230 Area and there are several reasons for that. Technical Reasons: 1. On the chart I have a large parallel channel. Currently the price is hovering near the top edge of the channel. This itself is a reason to look for shorts here. 2. Chart also has an indicator which shows 9 count sell signals as per TD sequential method. Notice what happened last time when the price was near the top of the channel. We got two consecutive nine count sell signals and as soon as price hit the top of the channel multi month sell off began. We have something remarkably similar going on right now. 3. Last time when we were near the top of the channel, we had bear divs on RSI and Money flow, we have them now as well. 4. We have harmonics ratios providing heavy resistance from 4214 region and upwards. 5. Another thing to notice is 4300 is 61.8 retracement level of the move from the top, That's another reason to build shorts here, one should not wait for 4300 to be hit to build short, as its absolute top and may not get hit due to other factors I mentioned above. If we begin the selloff in the coming weeks, we are looking at a possible 30% drop from current levels, in the next 3 to 4 months. I have provided these targets and measures based on past price action from top of the channel to the bottom, this of course is not going to be 100% accurate can change based on future market moving events. We also have below confluences for targets motioned in the chart above: June 14th We have Fed event, and SPX has been moving in the highlighted disjoint channel for a while so if we intersect 14th June with the channel we get the max upside and downside targets. Fundamental reasons: 1. The Fed's actions to raise interest rates are likely to slow the economy, which will lead to a recession. The Fed has said repeatedly they will continue to raise rates to bring down inflation to the target goal of 2% which is not yet achieved so no rate pauses as institutions and new media like people to believe. 2. Debt Ceiling battle: With no resolution in sight, the uncertainties surrounding this event could be the trigger to start the selloff although I am not discounting the possibility of a manipulative rally to 4300 which is a fantastic opportunity to build shorts. 2.1 If there is no resolution on this topic and US defaults everyone knows what will happen , so, until that is resolved all the contrarian traders should be extremely cautious. If you like my content, then please boost, and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by zakoraio
2
SPX analysis and predictionIn this post I will be making some projections and will also try to walk through the thought process to make those projections. Note: This is not Finacial Advice these projections are just some calculations based on the data we have currently, if the data changes, projections are likely to not play out. I am sure many of you might have already seen this rising wedge pattern on the chart on Weekly timeframe suggesting a drop in price over the coming weeks. But the thing with patterns is that they are subjective, and based on what your bias is you may see only certain types of patterns on the chart, that's why it important to remain neutral and look at the data objectively from all perspectives. Here are some other patterns which we can draw on the SPX. 1. Ascending Triangle about to break to the upside Symmetric Triangle is a pattern of indecision which is About to break to the upside So, we have three different patterns on the chart, one bullish, one bearish and one indecisive. We need a way to break the tie between patterns to find out which one has the higher probability of winning. Let's take help from indicators. I have added RSI on the weekly chart, here the picture starts to become slightly clear, we have RSI rising buy in a wedge which is a bearish structure and likely to breakdown over the coming weeks. Let's Zoom in a bit get a clearer picture, here is the chart on Daily TF I have added all the bearish divergences I see. Based on above analysis, the picture is becoming clearer, we have one bullish, one bearish pattern on the chart, but we also have one bearish pattern on RSI and several bearish divergences which makes probabilities in the favor of bearish pattern playing out higher. Now if we look at all the patterns, except the bearish pattern all other patterns have run out of room and are about to break out to the bullish side, which can create turbulences in the execution of the bearish patterns over coming days and weeks, but the divergences are in front of us ,there less and less people willing to buy at these levels , so if we start to move up a bit its likely to fall down fast. Now that we have established that the probability is higher for bearish side to play out let's make some measurements for targets. I have trend-based fib time to help us with times when the Pivots are likely to form, based on the theory pivots are likely to form, including and between .382 and .618 projections of the trend. I have also added two measurements of the Falling wedges we have one in green and another one in blue, the green measurement of green wedge falls at a remarkably interesting time (19th of June) and 5 days before that we have FOMC events which are known to create pivots. I have also added a trend line from the top which caught the previous bottom and the green measured move falls perfectly on that line. Now if the line holds, I am expecting only a temporary relief, and continuation downwards towards the second measured move due to the wedge in color blue. I have added two harmonic Structure which appear on both weekly and Daily Timeframes for the longer term measured move. PRZ of these structures falls precisely close to the measured move and the red trendline intersections. Now that we have long term movement captured, let's look at short term movements. We are forming a diamond pattern on Daily TF, this pattern has 50/50 change to break to either side, but if this pattern is formed after a move up, the probability is slightly higher for a break to the downside. I have added measured moves and tried to match it with the larger pattern (disjoint channel), this move intersection with time is also an interesting one as it falls on the weekend of 9th June and on the first day of next week ( 13th June ) we have CPI release. If you like my content, then please boost and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by zakoraio
2
SPX Swing Trade, History repeating (CPI incoming)The chart is self-explanatory, I have highlighted in the chart where we saw remarkably similar price action in the past. I have identified two different structures in the chart, a parallel channel, and a disjoint channel. We are currently trading in the disjoint channel. A disjoint channel has expanding edges which have same slopes locked in opposite directions. We entered the Current Disjoint channel from a parallel channel trending upwards which is exactly what happened in the past, the only difference is size of these channels, in past we had larger Parallel and disjoint channel compared to what we have now. The small size of channels this time indicates reduced volatility overall, which if it happens at the end of an uptrend, means we are topping out. Let's make some predictions based on this. If we look at the current price action, it is forming a bull flag (highlighted in the chart) , I have also highlighted the measured move of the flag. If the flag plays out its measured move intersects directly into the top of the disjoint channel as well as the August high. Which I believe should be the top or close to it. In case bull flag fails , and we first drop a bit then we can look at that the blue line, it is placed for 10th May CPI Day and if we move up on that day, we are still intersecting close to the August High and top of the disjoint channel. Apart from the above structures we also have a harmonic structure with its PRZ falling right onto Aug high. If you like my content then please boost and share this post. I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned. If you would like to learn from my experience then follow me on trading view to get notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming technical analysis and in-depth tutorials on technical Indicators. You can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to look at any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it. Keep learning and Happy trading All.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by zakoraio
2