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Sp500short

Hit the target top, now for the bottomIf Intermediate wave 1 is finally done, it was a few days late, but on target. Next forecast is for Intermediate wave 2 which should see the anticipated market decline over the next 5-12 days. This means the bottom should occur prior to May 2. As of now, Intermediate wave 1 was 23 days long. Waves ending in 2BC2 have been 20-50% the length of their first wave’s length. The projected retracement percentages have not change, but the values have slightly as the initial estimates were based on Intermediate wave 1 topping at 4160. The most specific datasets correlate to the retracement levels in light blue. The 33.44% value represents the first quartile of historical movement for waves ending in 2BC2. The median is 60.60% and the third quartile is 77.87%. The next specific values are in yellow and the are tied to historical waves ending in BC2. The third quartile is not displayed in yellow because it is also the 77.87% from the first dataset. The length of wave 2 based on this slightly larger dataset has it lasting 5-12 days again, with the strongest model agreement on 7 days. This could put the bottom around April 25. The final set of values are based on a larger and broader dataset based on the behavior of waves ending in C2. These values are in white and the median value is omitted because it is close to the yellow value of 67.86%. The strongest model agreement suggests wave 2 could last 23 days (18 models) followed by 8 days (14 models), 12 days (12 models), and 7 days (6 models). Declines could be related to earnings and speculation on the Fed which will provide the next rate hike determination and hint toward the future during the first week in May. Based on all the data, I am placing the bottom around 3922-3950. This will depend if the index starts moving down tomorrow or if another new high is reached. After this next bottom we should jump into the final strong rally of this uptrend possibly gaining 350-450 points over the course of 4 weeks. A perfect catalyst for this would be the Fed doing what is expected and hinting at a pause on rate hikes. While I do not agree it is a smart thing to do, it will be one of the many catalysts for the massive declines set to begin around mid-late June. Let’s play the drop, the big gain, and then its prevent defense time (after wave 4 down and wave 5 up).
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5 Things to Watch in the Next 2 WeeksCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Put Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) Important data releases in the coming weeks would shed light on the health of the US economy and could have significant impacts on global financial markets. We will focus on a number of critical datasets, mainly the following, in the upcoming weeks: • Federal tax revenue (Tax filing deadline: April 18) • Existing home sales (April 20) • Personal income and outlay (April 28) • Fed rate hike, or the lack of it (May 3) • Gasoline price trend (before peak summer driving season) Federal Tax Revenue According to the US Treasury Department, the sources of tax revenue for US federal government in 2021 were: • Individual taxes: 42.1% • Social insurance taxes: 23.8% • Consumption taxes: 16.6% • Property taxes: 11.4% • Corporate taxes: 6.0% The annual tax filing deadline for individual and corporation is April 18th. In practice, income tax, social security and Medicare are withheld from each paycheck for employees. Corporations pay estimated tax on a monthly basis. Property taxes are assessed annually. Sales tax is paid whenever you buy products or services. Tax filing is a process where taxpayers calculate tax liability and claim tax credit. If you’ve paid too much, ask for a refund. If you didn’t pay enough, send Uncle Sam a check. We could track government tax revenue and expenditure using the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) data published by the Treasury Department. Here are what I found: • In the first three months of 2023, gross tax revenue is $2.268 trillion, while tax refund amounts to $219.8 billion; The resulting net tax receipts are $2.048 trillion; • Comparing to Q1 2022, gross tax revenue is down 0.2%, but tax refunds are up big time by 45.8%. Net tax receipts are down 3.5% year-over-year; • Q1 individual income taxes $1.22 trillion, tax refunds $192.4 billion and net tax receipts $1.03 trillion; Y/Y changes are -1.9%, +59% and -8.5%, respectively; • Q1 corporate income taxes (in billions) $159.0, refunds $19.0, and net tax receipts $140.0; Y/Y changes are +5.1%, -20.7% and +10.0%, respectively; Individual taxes are the most important revenue source for the United States. A declining tax receipt would push the federal budget deeper in the red. But with unemployment at record low and wages on the rise, why is income tax revenue going down? In 2020, the top 1% of income earners earned 22% of all income and paid 42% of all federal income taxes – more than the bottom 90% combined (37%). For the top earners, most of their income taxes come from capital gain, not from wages. In 2021, Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 18.7% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 had annual returns of approximately 27%. I examine the MTS data for April 2022, which covered the tax filing period for year 2021. Net income tax receipt was $1.72 trillion, up 68.5% y/y. This shows positive correlation between stock market gains and growth in individual income tax revenue. In 2022, the Dow declined 8.8%, while S&P and Nasdaq were down 19.4% and 33.0%, respectively. The individual income tax in Q1 2023 was down 1.9%, but tax refund was up 59%. This again shows positive correlation – stock market losses and decline in income tax revenue. March MTS data strongly indicates that investors are writing off big capital losses from last year. When the tax season is over, I expect to see bigger tax refund and widening net receipt shortfall in the April MTS data vs same period in 2022. Implications: Urgency for Debt Ceiling Negotiation In January, in a letter addressed to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned the US has once again reached its debt limit. The Treasury Department started taking extraordinary measures to keep paying the federal government’s bills, but it would suspend new investments until June 5, 2023. Yellen warned both moves are subject to “considerable uncertainty” if Congress does not pass the bill to increase the debt ceiling. US financials have deteriorated since. According to USDebtClock.org: • US National Debt: $31.69 trillion • US Federal Spending: $6.03 trillion • US Federal Tax Revenue: $4.61 trillion • US Federal Budget Deficit: $1.42 trillion We now expect tax revenue to decline by at least tens of billions of dollars, while spendings on Defense, Medicare, Social Security, and Debt Interest are all going up. As a result, federal budget deficit could be underestimated by well over one hundred billion dollars. Would the federal government have enough money to keep the light on until early June? I suspect the insolvency time bomb is ticking closer and closer. Short-term Trading Strategies Although we had two rate hikes and a banking crisis in the first 100 days of 2023, major stock market indexes are all in the positive territory. The Dow gained 2.2%, S&P 500 rebounded 7.8%, and the Nasdaq pushed up 19.6% YTD. While investors managed to brush off bad news so far, balance sheet deterioration in government, corporation and household would eventually catch up. I am seeing a 5-10% correction in the S&P 500, if some of the following conditions materialize: • Federal tax revenue comes in significantly lower than expected. April MTS report would be released around May 12th; • May 3rd FOMC: If the Fed raises rates and does not signal an end of the tightening cycle, both corporate earnings and household spending would suffer; • US banks could tighten lending standards in the wake of banking crisis. This would add to higher borrowing cost on top of the rising interest rates; • Debt ceiling negotiation: if the White House and the Congress could not reach a deal quickly, we may be heading for the technical default of US government debt. Right now, they are not even sitting at the negotiating table. Options on CME E-Mini S&P 500 may be a way to express a bearish view. The E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures June contract (ESM3) is quoted 4171.75 last Friday. With a notional value of HKEX:50 x S&P 500 Index point, each contract is worth $208,587.5. Put option with a 4070 strike, which is about 100 points below market value, is quoted 76.25. To acquire one option requires an upfront premium of HKEX:3 ,812.50 (=76.25 X HKEX:50 ). Put option carries a nonlinear payoff diagram. Your loss is limited to the premium you paid, but potential gain is unlimited. Hypothetically, if the S&P futures price falls to 3900, put option will be 170 points in the money (=4070-3900). The gain on the account would be HKEX:8 ,500 for each contract. If our view proves to be incorrect and the S&P goes up instead, put premium could decline in value, resulting in a loss. The worst-case scenario is that options would expire worthless. Happy Trading. (To be continued) Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
19
Waiting for confirmations to short ES - SP500 - US500 Hello Everyone, This is my analysis about the SP500, since we're having a bad data on the PMI Services and if Friday delivers a bad interpretation of the NFP news, i want to see a retracement into the premium key levels and see in a lower timeframes a confirmation of a bearish move, then i'll proceed to short and targeting the fair value area and a lower prices. This is not a financial advice, the idea is for study purposes. In any case, it is not meant to give you a signal. This is just a way for me to read the markets.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by UnknownUnicorn35944623
1
My today's view on SP500 - FutureHi Traders, This is my view for today on ES Micro and Macro structure are both aligned. There’re few zone I’ll wait for the price to test: - 4025 for a short - 4080/90 for a short, as well - 3960 for a long (but I need a strong confirmation) Pit, Trading Kitchen DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by kitchen_trading
1
Up and then down, or straight down? Either way we're going down!With the news of SVB about to collapse, the markets started to move into safe havens and the stock markets started moving down. Now the question is, has the move down we've witnessed been the X wave of a larger B wave which should terminate around 4300 (as illustrated in our green count). Or is this the minor wave 1 of intermediate wave 3 which should result in a very sharp move down. Either way we're convinced that over the next few months we're heading lower to 3200 as a minimum. But of course the important part we need to establish now is if we move higher for a minor wave 2 or up for the Y wave of the primary wave B. We're expecting the move down to terminate around 3800 before moving up, of course we will be closely watching this move up to see if we get 3 waves or 5 waves to confirm which count we are in. Exciting times are ahead with some big opportunites to make profits.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RAA_Trading
BOOK of SAMUEL: DAVID V GOLIATHWow! This is a first for me, in such a large timeframe. Looking at both patterns forming. The larger head & shoulders pattern may take precedence, as it is generally considered to be a more significant pattern. If the H&S pattern is confirmed, it would suggest that the uptrend is ending and that a downtrend may be beginning. However, if the Inverted H&S pattern is also confirmed, it could indicate that the trend is changing and that an uptrend is beginning.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by theswiftninja
SP500 a short term outlook 🦐Based on the 4-hour timeframe, there are clear indications of a bearish trend in the S&P 500 index. After testing the weekly resistance level at 4160, the market started a bearish move with a series of lower lows and lower highs. Further analysis shows that the market retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level after the first bearish impulse and tested a daily resistance level perfectly. This level is known as an inversion point, indicating a high likelihood of the market reversing its trend. From there, the price created a second impulse toward the lower weekly support, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend. As such, it may be wise to wait for a new opportunity to set a nice short order in anticipation of further price declines according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by InkyGrip
6
SMC SPX500 Price might go up but I'm looking for shorts onlyWe are looking at the SP500 on 15 minute time frame. we see two Dotted lines - Green - Daily High of the previous day Red - Daily LOW of the previous day The daily trend is DOWN - so Daily Bias is look for shorts. The first hour, the market came down and formed a new low before we had a break of structure to the upside. This forms what's known as Sell Side LIquidity - Order Block. WHy? Because Smart Money goes down and sweeps liquidity where they buy into the market for the day. Next we can expect the prices to move up then retrace BACK into the LIquidity zone. Once this happens EITHER the market will move up for the rest of the day where intraday traders will go long. Or it will break below and form lower lows forming Buy side Liquidity (stopping buyers out). We ONLY will short the market because Daily Bias is bearish... So even if the market goes up, there will be no trade. If Buy Side Liquidity Order Block Forms we will have a trade to go short. I'll be waiting - what are your thoughts?
SP:SPXShort
by Timonrosso
My todays' view on SPX500 futureHi Traders, This is my view for today on ES Micro and macro structure are aligned. Next target will be 3900 and can be reached immediately after a manipulation around Asian Session High or with a retest on 4000 level on a strong SUPPLY zone. (I’ll personally wait for this retest to go short). Pit, Trading Kitchen DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice. ———————————
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by kitchen_trading
US500 Trading Plan - 4/Mar/2023Hello Traders, Hope you all are doing good!! I expect US500 to go Down after finishing the correction. Look for your SELL setups. Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan. Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management. Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
UShort
by For3xScalper
$SPY PUTS If we held above $400 it would signal a larger move up. Likelihood of that happening is quite low in my opinion. With a big week of low expected earnings, possible negative news coming from Powell, and many companies looking lacklustre with weak guidance, I expect that we can see a strong rejection of the $400 level. Closed one put already from $399 to $396 and will gradually re-open a few Puts for March/April expiration between $397-$399 Looking for a TP level around $370 or at the .618 fib line. Not because it would be a bottom, but a good level to take profit as we approach expiration and where we might see a possible bounce. Stop loss would be $400 as I don't expect us to head back above this level. However, if we do, the risk/reward ratio is worth it. Good luck everyone.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bishopknight
2
A little ugly coming our wayThis past week the bar was caught between the previous bar values which is typical of an adjustment to prices. The result was a close for the week in the lower 40% of the bar which adjusted the previous bar to a close in the mid section of the bar, or ~41.64% of the previous weeks range. This indicated indecision of a bearish nature. A potential test of 4007.23 - 3867.02, of which the lower section is testing the mid-December range of 3389.82 - 3746.49 Tighten your stops-losses to just below (by about .002%) this weeks low bar on anything you are trading if you have anything in profit. This will lock your profit in and should provide you with a potential discount to buy back in after the the test completes itself. The sectors look like as noted below: Discretionary - Bearish Info Tech - Neutral-Bull Telecom - Bearish Real Estate - Bearish Materials - Bearish Financials - Neutral-Bear Industrials -Neutral Staples - Bearish Health Care - Bearish Utilities - Bearish Energy - Bullish Keep you stop-losses tight -PriceProphet
SP:SPXShort
by priceprophet