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Sp500short

DON'T GET TOO BULLISH!Okay, I'm just gonna say it. People have the attention span of gold-fish. We cannot forget the storm that is brewing and the bullshit they're setting up. For starters, don't forget about SBF and FTT. But wait, what was even before that? The Evergrande Situation? And then what about before then/around that time...(See, I'm guilty of it too), but there was there USDT nonsense before that....and what's kind of driving it all? Bitcoin! So, they figured out how to manipulate Bitcoin in a way that it wasn't meant to be manipulated. Instead of it being "non-hackable" and "non-inflationary" this is what they managed to do. And I need you to really think about what I'm about to say: We're going to fast-forward past any tin-foil involving BTC and it's creation...Let's go to USDT: Tether (USDT) is a stablecoin that is designed to maintain a value of 1:1 with the US dollar. This means that for every Tether token issued, there is an equivalent amount of US dollars held in reserve. The purpose of Tether is to provide a stable alternative to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which can be highly volatile. It is widely used as a store of value and a means of exchange on cryptocurrency exchanges, where it can be used to trade for other cryptocurrencies. The answer to the question “What is USDT?” involves four specific parts: USDT is an abbreviation for the term United States Dollar Tether United States Dollar Tether (USDT) is a blockchain-based cryptocurrency USDT is also known as Tether USDT is the symbol under which Tether tokens trade But USDT is much more than just those four details. At its heart, it’s a centralized, fiat-collateralized stablecoin. (www.vauld.com) Let's see what my good friend ChatGBT says; which by the way, exists only to steal your ideas and the collective human consciousness. It's the same reason why Elon Musk really wanted Twitter for $54b when he could have easily bought or build his own social media platform for a fraction of the price. Elon wanted the data of the human mind and social interaction. That's why it was such a fight with the bots, and why he also immediately went to a "Free Speech" platform (Even though they all did at the same time. Stuff you see on Youtube now you would have never saw 1-2 years ago...or since 2020, but I digress) Elon needed the bots gone because it corrupts the data (You wouldn't want to upload AI into AI under the impression that it's human behavior.) and he wanted the free-speech because people's voices have been politically censored for the last like 10 years, progressively getting worse and worse each year, and then before you know it, the entire data is full of fake human interaction and not the true nature and opinions of people, which is why he needed free-speech. Elon obviously has plans for some insane AI, and my guess is it involves nueralink, and I for one will not be participating in that, and those of us that don't are going to get left in the stone ages. Okay, my bad, back to ChatGBT/USDT. Here is a convo we had. Me: When did USDT go public? ChatGBT: Tether (USDT) is a stablecoin that is pegged to the US dollar. It was first issued on the Bitcoin blockchain as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum network in October 2014. It later added support for other blockchains such as Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and TRON. Me: "Tell me more." ChatGBT: Tether (USDT) is a stablecoin that is designed to maintain a value of 1:1 with the US dollar. This means that for every Tether token issued, there is an equivalent amount of US dollars held in reserve. The purpose of Tether is to provide a stable alternative to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, which can be highly volatile. It is widely used as a store of value and a means of exchange on cryptocurrency exchanges, where it can be used to trade for other cryptocurrencies. Tether was first issued on the Bitcoin blockchain as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum network in October 2014 by Tether Limited, a company based in the British Virgin Islands. Since then, it has added support for other blockchains such as Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and TRON. Tether is one of the most widely used stablecoins in the crypto market and is considered to be one of the most important players in the stablecoin space. Despite this, there has been some controversy surrounding Tether, with some critics questioning the transparency of the company's reserves and how it manages its funds. Me: "Have they been under investigation or public allegations or involved in any alleged scandals or fraud?" (I already knew the answer to this). ChatGBT: "Tether and its associated companies have been subject to a number of investigations and public allegations over the years. The most notable of these include: -In April 2019, the New York Attorney General's office announced that it had launched an investigation into Tether and the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex over concerns that the companies had covered up a loss of $850 million of co-mingled client and corporate funds. -In January 2020, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also announced that it had subpoenaed Tether and Bitfinex as part of a probe into whether the companies had manipulated the cryptocurrency market. Some critics have raised questions about Tether's reserves and whether the company truly holds enough US dollars to back all of the Tether tokens in circulation. Tether Limited has undergone a number of audits by different firms over the years, but some have criticized the scope and methodology of these audits. It's important to note that Tether and Bitfinex have denied any wrongdoings and disputes the NYAG's allegations. Furthermore, Tether has also been working closely with authorities and regulators to address any concerns and to comply with laws and regulations. It's worth mentioning that these investigations are ongoing, and no formal charges have been filed against Tether or Bitfinex as of this date. It's important to note here that Tether's website used to say that they will follow a consistent and constant audit of all dollars and tokens, ensuring a 1/1 ration, but they quickly removed it. I'm currently struggling to find it with the wayback machine, but you'll just have to take my word for it or find it yourself. So what happened is, you had more USDT being created than USD flowing into USDT....meaning they're creating more USDT than the USD they're receiving, and that magically created USDT is what is being used to buy BTC. So, for example...let's just keep everything super simple....USDT is supposed to be valued $1 USD. Now let's say for every 1 USD that goes in, that Tether produces $2 USDT..meaning that USDT would be worth $.50 USD in all actuality. Now lets say that those $2 USDT are used to buy BTC, which is primarily how all BTC purchases go...That would artificially drive up the cost of the BTC because the BTC thinks it's taking in $1 USD for every $1 USDT they receive. Do you see what I'm getting at? So this is looming in the background and we need to not forget it...especially considering everything else this last 2 years, but we will get into it. Then they printed $5t, a lot of which was taken right back through traps set up via financial psy-ops...and trust me, all these companies know whatever is coming. They don't care that they bought at highs, because they not only rug-pulled you, they also managed to sell digital tokens of the actual coin itself...hello, ROBINHOOD!? WEBULL!? Anywhere else that sells you crypto that you can't access. I'm just saying, you've got that looming in the background, then the arrest of SBF, who was closely associated with Bitnfinex with is associated with, and basically is, Tether or Tether Limited. All these sharks are good at what they do and people fall for the traps all the time. Perfect example, the one that's going on right now. If you're a trader, by all means, trade away and make your money...but if you're losing due to the manipulations of options prices, stay away from them....maybe with the exception of buying some long-expiry $350 puts or something....Something is brewing. There's riots, protests, former/current presidents being raided (and for what really?), and SBF who was hanging out in D.C in the years leading up to and after the introduction of FTT. Just be ready. It's going to get wild. Oh, And who invested in BTC those insanely high prices? All your favorite S&P companies...
AMEX:SPYShort
by rod_a_g1989
8
Is it the end of the bear-market rally on the S&P 500?Volatility was high during the Asian and US session yesterday, which saw a reversal of fortunes for the Japanese yen and the US dollar track Wall Street lower by the close on concerns the US is already in a recession. The yen originally weakened and sent USD/JPY over 250 pips higher as the BOJ did absolutely nothing, catching pre-emptive hawkish bets off guard. Yes with US retail sales sinking to a 12-month low at -1.1% m/m, then industrial production and manufacturing output falling –0.7% m/m and -1.3% respectively, it seems ‘happy new year’ is a distant memory and bears are coming out of hibernation. The Dow Jones led Wall Street lower (-1.8%) followed by the S&P 500 (-1.56%) and the Nasdaq (-1.3%). It also dragged the dollar lower as traders bet on a lower terminal Fed rate, seeing USD/JPY hand back most of its earlier gains. AUD, CAD and oil were also dragged lower as recession concerns dominated sentiment. S&P 500 daily chart: The S&P has stalled at an interesting juncture, and one that may prove to be a major swing high, during its worst session in 21. A large bearish ingulfing candle formed following an intraday false break of 4,000, trend resistance and the 200-day MA. Also note how the S&P has struggled previously at the 50-day MA back in August and twice in December. Volume was also above average to show conviction in the down-day, and the OBV (on balance volume) has been trending lower since November, despite the S&P’s rally since October, to show that bearish volume is dominating overall. Have we just seen the end of a bear-market rally? Possibly, perhaps not. But it does appear that a prominent swing high has formed • Our bias remains bearish below 4016 with an initial target at 3800 • Bears could either enter a break of yesterday’s low, or seek to fade into rallies with yesterday’s bearish candle (this potentially increases the reward to risk ratio) • If confident this is the end of a bear-market rally, bears could keep an open downside target and manage with a wider stop as it moves lower to managed the inevitable whipsaws along the way
SP:SPXShort
by CityIndex
S&P 500 -Short if closeing in the ForkThe count speaks for it self. However, P5 started a new count to the downside. The under- and overshoot where wonderful. Picture perfect I would say. But price traded back into the Fork again, not able to reach the Centerline. We (Medianline & Pitchforker) call this a HAGOPIAN. So, price should go back farther than from where it came (P5). But so far it couldn't reach this level again. And if the ES close today lies again within the Fork, then guess what we have? Right, a new HAGOPIAN and again a target way below at the Centerline. Which one? I leave it up to you to manage your trades.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
MAJOR resistance test for the marketsAttempting to identify the end of Intermediate B has been waves of fun and plenty of misses. While there is no prescribed metrics on what the wave’s overall movement and duration should be, historical metrics have been quite reliable (most of the time). That has not been the case during this chase for Intermediate wave B. I have not given up and caved to the belief that the major uptrend has begun yet. We should still move down in an Intermediate wave C which will also close out Primary wave B (corrective downward wave). Here is my Elliott wave outline of Primary wave B so far. Primary wave A ended with the peak in the first hour of trading on December 1, 2022 (light blue colored-encircled letter A). Primary wave B is comprised of 3 subwaves (Intermediate waves). Intermediate wave A (magenta letter A in parenthesis) ended with a low on December 22, 2022 and has yet to be broken. I currently have placed Intermediate wave B’s endpoint at the high from January 13, although this could still change in the next few trading days. My Elliott Wave, Wave 3 finder, identifies wave 3 and other reversal extremes such as the end of waves 2, 4, and B. This indicator is toward the bottom of my charts. The signals are a magenta background bar when entering a reversal that will see the equity move up soon and a lighter blue background color when the equity has topped and will revert to the downside. The Minor waves reside inside each Intermediate wave and are colored with yellow letters or numbers Minute waves are inside of each Minor wave and they are colored with light green alpha numerals. My wave 3 indicator mainly spots wave 3 of 3 which was the case midday on December 16 and early morning on January 9. This is why I am confident that Intermediate A was placed correctly, and we are still in Intermediate wave B for the moment. We are finally approaching a major level of resistance which has held strong since January 2022. We have not had a daily bar that has closed above the thick red-dotted line. This will be tested within the next 3 days. An alternative location if we break through the resistance and keep moving higher is that we are indeed in Primary wave C and should continue upward toward 4400-4600. If this path plays out, Primary wave B would have ended on December 22. Here is a chart of this alternative course and where we may be today: I do not like this due to the pace of Cycle wave B. Cycle wave B began at the current market low from October. The original expectation was that it would ultimately trend upward until Summer 2023. If this alternative were true, the market top would probably occur within another month, maybe two at the most. While this is not impossible, and potentially practical, the historical relationships between the macro and minor waves do not support this outcome. IF WE JUST ENDED INTERMEDIATE WAVE B: The following projection will only be a rough estimate of where Intermediate C down inside of Primary B would take us IF Intermediate wave B indeed ended at the market high on Friday January 13, 2023. Based on historical waves ending in 2BBC, potential wave durations based on data quartiles are 6, 11, 28, or 41 trading days. Movement extension in relation to Intermediate wave A’s movement are 127.13%, 130.095% and 133.06%. These percentages and levels have not changed since my analysis two weeks ago and are the light blue lines. The only new difference based on waves ending in BBC are the potential wave durations as well. Most model agreement is with a duration of 10 & 28 days. There is a large tie for second most at 5-8, 11, 12, 14, 15, 19, 24, 31, & 41 days. For waves ending in BC, most model agreement is at a length of 14 trading days. Second most is at 14 days, third most at 42 days. Fourth most ties at 7, 8, & 10 trading days. Fifth is 5, 19, 28, & 56 days. Historically wave C can be equal to the length of waves A + B. Intermediate wave A was 15 days long and wave B for the moment is at 14 days. Based on all this data, 28 days may be around the maximum length for Intermediate wave C. This date February 24th. Another potential length is 11 days, which while less than both Intermediate waves A or B, it aligns with the next Fed meeting and rate hike. The only near-term catalysts for market decline occurring immediately would be earnings in which the season just began. The Fed will not meet for a few more weeks and that is too deep into the projected decline to be a cause of the decline. The Fed would most likely signal the bottom if they hold to the market’s current expectation of a 25 or 50 basis point hike. Bottom line is we should decline at least one more time to retest the December lows before moving upward. The resistance test early this week will show us if that decline will occur. I will conduct a market re-look after this week plays out.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
S&P500: Don't push it 🚫The S&P500 is currently wandering sideways and doesn't really know, where it's heading. We're currently expecting the course to sink further South, but there is a slight temptation to cross the resistance line at 4026 points. In our alternative scenario with a probability of 30%, the course could dig a bit deeper to finish the pink wave alt. II, before exceeding the resistance mark at 4026 points for good. Primarily, the S&P500 should fall below the support line at 3788 points to complete the blue wave . Once achieved, we're predicting steady upwards pulses in the longterm.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
ES - S&P 500 Retest and Down We GoWith the "cooked" CPI, let us examine the ES Chart. 1. The dotted yellow TL's show the OVERShoot and UNDERShoot, which are perfectly in line with the Medianlines. 2. Price was going up from the Zero to Five Count and broke the confirmed Pivot 4. This leads into a potential new start of the next Downtrend. 3. From the red 1, up to where we are now (2023/01/12), this looks like a perfect market manipulation in line with the CPI. However, with or without CPI, we see where price bangs it's head to day on a intraday view. Right at the U-MLH. We could either get a hard rejection from here, or price even get's pushed up to the yellow sliding parallel. 4. The Stochastic also shows a negative sign since price got pushed up to the U-MLH. If your backtest this Oscillator, then you know that most of the time there's a push in the opposite side before price synchronizes. Or in short: Watch the Rocket Man §8-) Stay save and trade with Brain.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
SPX Fair Value Ranges - SPX ES1! SPY - Updated 121722Here is a chart that calculates SPX "Fair Value", based off FED Net Liquidity variables. SPY ES1! Looking to the end of the year 2022 and the start of 2023, here are some SPX target ranges to keep in mind when taking into account the current FED Net Liquidity: Upper Bound: $4,271.69 Fair Value: $3,921.69 Lower Bound: $3,771.69 If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼 SPX Fair Value (FED Net Liquidity) www.tradingview.com SPX Net Liquidity Band Indicator via @dharmatechnology8: www.tradingview.com
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco
Some Down Side to come Hey All, Just some food for thought but We have multiple charts showing some downwards pressure coming to markets all are shown below and with the CPI coming out this week and Fed rate decision we have the catalyst for another sell off. We have an Weekly engulfing bearish candle on the SP500, Vix bouncing off a falling wedge and trend line, US dollar also bouncing off support line and possible head and shoulders developing on it, Silver with negative divergence and both the 2yr and 10 yr bond yields bouncing off trend support lines. All of these charts point that pain is coming to the market. My belief is we will retest the previous low at least then find some buyers possibly rallying back from there or as indicated on the chart maybe another pump and dump lower but we wont know until we reach that point. I do think this will be the last leg down for a while until later in 2023 as company health and earnings will be the bigger question on the markets mind as rates will stagnate. This would follow previous rate and market movements in previous corrections for example rates in 2007 stagnated but markets then declined and recession in 2008, 1999 rates started to stagnate then in 2000 recession and market decline started same in 94-95 and 87. I feel the main charts to focus on at the DXY and the yields if the dollar creates the head and shoulders pattern we could see a strong short squeeze of the previous low on the SP500 and Dollar start falling but we will know if there is more pain after that if yields start stagnating or increase more.
TVC:SPXShort
by jackwheeler
The S&P500 rally stalled at a key resistance clusterThe jury is out over whether a bear-market rally has topped, or last week’s decline is simply a pullback ahead of its next break higher. Yet the turn of momentum at a key resistance cluster suggests bears are regaining control. The S&P 500 had its most bearish week in 5 as its rally stalled at the 50-week MEA, trend resistance, a 161.8% Fibonacci ratio and the September high. The daily chart shows prices closed below trend resistance, and the market has since failed to move back up to 4,000. A bearish outside day formed on Friday to who momentum is trying to turn lower. A break below 3915 assumes bearish continuation, with 3818.2 an initial target, and a break below 3800 brings 3700 into focus.
SP:SPXShort
by CityIndex
The Recession will continue. SP500!!! A year ago i posted that SP500 will continue to fall ,now we see what clearly has happened since then . The overall fall has prodused ripples of fear throughout the whole market. Infation coming in hot , the FED keeps rising interest rates , mass cut of position jobs from big companies, most of that happening on a short period of time . I believe that if the report by the FED on Wensday comes with higher interest rates , the market will crash lower with my perdiction ranging on a -15% to -20% by the first weeks of the new year . Even if the report comes in lower , market will still find its way to the bottom throughout the new year. Moreover through the analysis of the past recessions and crashes and due to the current market conditions over the last year i consider the overall market is set to fall even lower with the SP500 falling at 2400-2200 , which is almost 50% drop from its peak . To sum up , i believe this trumble will sink the whole global market , at a point that every citizen will feel it to the bone. I dont want to spread fear or being pessimistic but i want to spread awearness , and you being prepeared for every possible outcome, because the one who loses money and afraid of the current situation is the one WHO IS NOT PREPARED!!!
TVC:SPXShort
by The_DailyProfit
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * US November PPI came in at 0.3%, a bit higher than the consensus estimate of 0.2% after rising 0.2% in October . This sent Risk-On markets lower as fears of another 75bps rate hike returned to the table. One good thing about November's PPI is that it increased 7.4% from last November, compared to 8.1% in October. Expectations for China's reopening are continuing to materialize as 28 oil tankers remain backlogged in the Black Sea due to Turkey's recent request for insurance checks on Russian oil tankers . Meanwhile the EU faces an energy crisis exacerbated by recent oil price caps and the Russia/Ukraine war that many fear will spill over into a global financial meltdown . However, if US November CPI prints lower and the FOMC follows through on a loose commitment to a 50bps rate hike, selling pressure may be alleviated in the near term. DXY, US Treasurys, VIX, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100, Energy and Metals finished up on the day. US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Agriculture and EURUSD finished down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price finished the day trending down at $3934 after being rejected by the uptrend line from 10/13 as resistance, it's now approaching a retest of $3913 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (moderate) and favored sellers in today's session after favoring buyers in the previous two sessions, a clear indication of PPI induced fears. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4090, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 49 after being rejected by 52.68 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at 46. Stochastic remains bearish after a bullish crossover attempt was rejected at 5, it is currently trending down at 3.5 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 33 support. ADX is currently trending down at 15 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the uptrend line from 10/13 at ~$4k as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally retest $3913 minor support before potentially retesting the 50MA at $3840 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4058.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Does the yield curve inversion signal recession?The famous negative curve. This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen? The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system. Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in longer terms is used to provide positive arbitrage between interest rates on liabilities (paid) and assets (received), a strategy subject to the limits of the rollover capacity of the liabilities and raising new funds. The availability of assets with higher premiums and liquidity, US02Y and US03Y, makes it less attractive to offer funds for longer terms < US10Y, and more expensive to raise funds for those who demand funds for shorter terms. So the interest curve is considered a kind of thermometer of what lies ahead in an economy, and it is the graphic representation of how much investors are charging to lend money in different maturities, and once it is inverted, it means that it is more expensive to borrow in the short term than in the long term – an unusual thing, because more distant payment dates mean greater risks for the borrower. In the US economy, a widely documented fact is that yield curve inversion (i.e., when there is a negative differential between long-term versus short-term bond yields) is a good leading indicator of periods of economic contraction. four to six quarters ahead. According to data available on the Federal Reserve website, yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967. There is also evidence that indicators of this nature are important predictors of periods of economic contraction in other countries. But are there any silver linings to this unusual reversal scenario? Yes, in these moments of greater uncertainty we have an interesting opportunity to buy good companies at low prices. This is because after the monetary tightening cycle, the economy usually weakens, during this period risk assets suffer, considering that their future projections will suffer due to the scenario, so many of the market participants seek security in bonds, others seek to anticipate the recovery considering that as soon as this CORRECTIVE cycle ends, a new UPWARD CYCLE tends to maintain perennial companies and give birth to many new companies that arise in the face of challenging scenarios.
TVC:US10YEducation
by leandrosander_
33