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SPX Fair Value Ranges - SPX ES1! SPY - Updated 121722Here is a chart that calculates SPX "Fair Value", based off FED Net Liquidity variables. SPY ES1! Looking to the end of the year 2022 and the start of 2023, here are some SPX target ranges to keep in mind when taking into account the current FED Net Liquidity: Upper Bound: $4,271.69 Fair Value: $3,921.69 Lower Bound: $3,771.69 If you want a copy of this chart, here is the link to make a copy: 📊👇🏼 SPX Fair Value (FED Net Liquidity) www.tradingview.com SPX Net Liquidity Band Indicator via @dharmatechnology8: www.tradingview.com
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco
Some Down Side to come Hey All, Just some food for thought but We have multiple charts showing some downwards pressure coming to markets all are shown below and with the CPI coming out this week and Fed rate decision we have the catalyst for another sell off. We have an Weekly engulfing bearish candle on the SP500, Vix bouncing off a falling wedge and trend line, US dollar also bouncing off support line and possible head and shoulders developing on it, Silver with negative divergence and both the 2yr and 10 yr bond yields bouncing off trend support lines. All of these charts point that pain is coming to the market. My belief is we will retest the previous low at least then find some buyers possibly rallying back from there or as indicated on the chart maybe another pump and dump lower but we wont know until we reach that point. I do think this will be the last leg down for a while until later in 2023 as company health and earnings will be the bigger question on the markets mind as rates will stagnate. This would follow previous rate and market movements in previous corrections for example rates in 2007 stagnated but markets then declined and recession in 2008, 1999 rates started to stagnate then in 2000 recession and market decline started same in 94-95 and 87. I feel the main charts to focus on at the DXY and the yields if the dollar creates the head and shoulders pattern we could see a strong short squeeze of the previous low on the SP500 and Dollar start falling but we will know if there is more pain after that if yields start stagnating or increase more.
TVC:SPXShort
by jackwheeler
The S&P500 rally stalled at a key resistance clusterThe jury is out over whether a bear-market rally has topped, or last week’s decline is simply a pullback ahead of its next break higher. Yet the turn of momentum at a key resistance cluster suggests bears are regaining control. The S&P 500 had its most bearish week in 5 as its rally stalled at the 50-week MEA, trend resistance, a 161.8% Fibonacci ratio and the September high. The daily chart shows prices closed below trend resistance, and the market has since failed to move back up to 4,000. A bearish outside day formed on Friday to who momentum is trying to turn lower. A break below 3915 assumes bearish continuation, with 3818.2 an initial target, and a break below 3800 brings 3700 into focus.
SP:SPXShort
by CityIndex
The Recession will continue. SP500!!! A year ago i posted that SP500 will continue to fall ,now we see what clearly has happened since then . The overall fall has prodused ripples of fear throughout the whole market. Infation coming in hot , the FED keeps rising interest rates , mass cut of position jobs from big companies, most of that happening on a short period of time . I believe that if the report by the FED on Wensday comes with higher interest rates , the market will crash lower with my perdiction ranging on a -15% to -20% by the first weeks of the new year . Even if the report comes in lower , market will still find its way to the bottom throughout the new year. Moreover through the analysis of the past recessions and crashes and due to the current market conditions over the last year i consider the overall market is set to fall even lower with the SP500 falling at 2400-2200 , which is almost 50% drop from its peak . To sum up , i believe this trumble will sink the whole global market , at a point that every citizen will feel it to the bone. I dont want to spread fear or being pessimistic but i want to spread awearness , and you being prepeared for every possible outcome, because the one who loses money and afraid of the current situation is the one WHO IS NOT PREPARED!!!
TVC:SPXShort
by The_DailyProfit
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * US November PPI came in at 0.3%, a bit higher than the consensus estimate of 0.2% after rising 0.2% in October . This sent Risk-On markets lower as fears of another 75bps rate hike returned to the table. One good thing about November's PPI is that it increased 7.4% from last November, compared to 8.1% in October. Expectations for China's reopening are continuing to materialize as 28 oil tankers remain backlogged in the Black Sea due to Turkey's recent request for insurance checks on Russian oil tankers . Meanwhile the EU faces an energy crisis exacerbated by recent oil price caps and the Russia/Ukraine war that many fear will spill over into a global financial meltdown . However, if US November CPI prints lower and the FOMC follows through on a loose commitment to a 50bps rate hike, selling pressure may be alleviated in the near term. DXY, US Treasurys, VIX, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100, Energy and Metals finished up on the day. US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Agriculture and EURUSD finished down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price finished the day trending down at $3934 after being rejected by the uptrend line from 10/13 as resistance, it's now approaching a retest of $3913 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (moderate) and favored sellers in today's session after favoring buyers in the previous two sessions, a clear indication of PPI induced fears. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4090, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 49 after being rejected by 52.68 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at 46. Stochastic remains bearish after a bullish crossover attempt was rejected at 5, it is currently trending down at 3.5 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 33 support. ADX is currently trending down at 15 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the uptrend line from 10/13 at ~$4k as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally retest $3913 minor support before potentially retesting the 50MA at $3840 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4058.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Does the yield curve inversion signal recession?The famous negative curve. This market concept is used when the US02Y or US03Y operate at higher levels than the US10Y, this behavior usually anticipates recessions, but why does this happen? The inversion of the yield curve distorts the expected functionality of the financial system. Under "normal" conditions, raising funds in the short term for investment in longer terms is used to provide positive arbitrage between interest rates on liabilities (paid) and assets (received), a strategy subject to the limits of the rollover capacity of the liabilities and raising new funds. The availability of assets with higher premiums and liquidity, US02Y and US03Y, makes it less attractive to offer funds for longer terms < US10Y, and more expensive to raise funds for those who demand funds for shorter terms. So the interest curve is considered a kind of thermometer of what lies ahead in an economy, and it is the graphic representation of how much investors are charging to lend money in different maturities, and once it is inverted, it means that it is more expensive to borrow in the short term than in the long term – an unusual thing, because more distant payment dates mean greater risks for the borrower. In the US economy, a widely documented fact is that yield curve inversion (i.e., when there is a negative differential between long-term versus short-term bond yields) is a good leading indicator of periods of economic contraction. four to six quarters ahead. According to data available on the Federal Reserve website, yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967. There is also evidence that indicators of this nature are important predictors of periods of economic contraction in other countries. But are there any silver linings to this unusual reversal scenario? Yes, in these moments of greater uncertainty we have an interesting opportunity to buy good companies at low prices. This is because after the monetary tightening cycle, the economy usually weakens, during this period risk assets suffer, considering that their future projections will suffer due to the scenario, so many of the market participants seek security in bonds, others seek to anticipate the recovery considering that as soon as this CORRECTIVE cycle ends, a new UPWARD CYCLE tends to maintain perennial companies and give birth to many new companies that arise in the face of challenging scenarios.
Editors' picks
TVC:US10YEducation
by leandrosander_
35
How does the market react after inflation peaks ? Hi guys, today I bring you an important point for macro analysis. Many believe that seeing a significant improvement in economic data, especially those linked to inflation, showing that it is slowing down is something positive, is it really? In a way, it's a positive metric when looked at in isolation, because inflation brings major disturbances to the economy, but that's a topic for another post. What matters is that the mere fact that inflation has marked a possible peak and the Fed has started to reduce interest rates does not mean that we are going to have a bottom in the market! Currently big banks are warning about the recession, and this for us, is not news, but look at this headline: "Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, talks of recession next year" But here we had already been talking about this recession for some time, after publishing a study talking about the inversion of the yield curve, in that study there was the following sentence: "According to the data available on the Federal Reserve website, the inversion of the yield curve preceded all American recessions since 1950, with the exception of a false signal in 1967." This publication was made on the So, yes, we have a contracted recession, but what does that have to do with peak inflation? Inflation brings, as a consequence, a scenario of uncertainties in the economy, and discourages new investments from being carried out. In practice, this causes difficulties for the country's economic growth, and once we have this combined with high interest rates, growth becomes even more difficult. So, even though inflation has reached its peak, interest rates are still very high, and we continue to struggle with economic growth and this usually happens, see the chart, after inflation peaks we had big drops. Will we see something similar again? Tell me your opinion here!
Editors' picks
SP:SPX
by leandrosander_
33
20 Reason buy S&P🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️ 1 ✨Eagle eye: Super BUllish 2 📆Monthly: after a deep correction now, the impulsive move is just started 3 📅Weekly: bear trend/beartrap double bottom/ make lower high 4 🕛Daily: the clear bull trend toward extreme high 😇7 Dimension analysis 🟢 analysis time frame: daily 5: 1 Price Structure: bullish 6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: flag 7: 3 Volume: high volume 8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: super bullish 9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: v 10: 6 Strength ADX: bullish 11: 7 Sentiment ROC: bull ✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4 12: Entry TF Structure: bull 13: entry move: impulsive 14: Support resistance base: cip 15: FIB: ☑️ final comments: buy 16: 💡decision: buy 17: 🚀Entry: 4107 18: ✋Stop losel:4019 19: 🎯Take profit:4198
SP:SPXLong
by Optimum369
S&P 500 index: When you reach the top...A very robust US labour market data released on Friday shocked equity markets, which had surged in the aftermath of Powell's speech confirming a slower pace of rises in December. Non-farm payrolls ( NFPs ) came in at 263k, which was significantly higher than the 200k that had been anticipated, and average hourly wages rose 5.1% y/y, well above the 4.6% expected. The job report came as a surprise following an event hosted by the Brookings Institution on Wednesday, at which Powell emphasized the need to slow the pace of rate hikes as early as the December FOMC meeting, therefore solidifying a 50 basis point hike rather than a 75 basis point boost. The market was overly optimistic about a "Santa rally," spurred by Powell's latest dovish attitude, but may now face a rough two-week road leading up to the next US CPI data and FOMC meeting. Prior to Friday, 92% of S&P 500 equities were trading above their 50-day moving average, a level that has historically triggered a bearish reversal. Currently, the level has just fallen to 90%, which remains in the top high of the historical range.  During the Friday session, the S&P 500 index encountered fresh bearish pressure at 4,100 levels on Friday, after strongly breaching its 200-day moving average for the first time since April and firmly trading above the 4,000 psychological mark. The price action had reversed solidly when it met the dynamic resistance, represented by the 2022 trendline. The S&P is currently seeking support near 4,000 points, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line of the low to high of 2022. If this level is broken to the downside, there is the potential for a move to 3,800 (23.6% Fibonacci) prior to important data (US CPI) and the FOMC meeting.  Given the expected repricing of Fed rates for 2023 after the NFP reading, and the Fed blackout period, bull efforts to break over 4,100 have fewer probabilities.
TVC:SPX
by Capitalcom
The SP500 must test or renew lows!Hello everyone, today I'm going to bring here my view on the SP500 The SP500 is again trading at a downtrend line, which shows that we are in a strong sell zone. This price zone is also confluent with the Fibonacci retracement range between 50% and 61.8% of the last leg down. Knowing this, I believe that prices will test at least these two support bands that I have plotted on my charts. If prices manage to stay above 3750p, we have a more positive context that I will update here, but I warn you that this is not my baseline scenario. And now I'm going to explain to my friends which is, in my view, the most likely context for the SP500 Starting with the 12h chart Here we clearly have a move that follows an uptrend line, so prices remain bullish, but all breakouts of the previous top fail to develop a new swing high, and this is a warning of a wedge formation. The corrections are going deep, whereas after the 10/11 the prices haven't moved and we are at the wedge return line, so a zig-zag below that uptrend line should be a great context for a correction . But you can see that the SP500's 4100p zone is very liquid. So if prices break the previous week's high, we have to be careful not to buy the dead cat jump, I honestly think this possibility of a test at 4100p is lower. On my main read we will look for a zig-zag below the wedge after testing the weekly downtrend line. Look at the 4h chart What contributes to my correction reading on the SP500 is the DXY, see: And this proportionally inverse correlation works a lot, So that's it guys, my reading for the US market is for a new downtrend, after a wedge-shaped pullback, for this reading to change we have to close the current week above 3750p or have a very positive catalyst, I hope it does liked and don't forget to leave your LIKE that encourages me to continue publishing here! Great trades and big hug.
U
by leandrosander_
S&P500: Preparing for the next BEARISH move targeting the 3500!Hello, everybody and welcome to Cybernetics Trading Lab, today we are going to analyse the S&P500, translating the market information by using a full technical analysis on different time frames, giving you a personal opinion about the next most likely market movement and helping you to spot and manage market opportunities. Top Down Technical Analysis: Since the beginning of the 2022, the S&P500 has been moving inside a huge corrective structure, forming inside several impulses and corrections. In May 2022, the market put in place the most recent swing high, where it got a strong rejection just during the previous august! A strong bearish phase started since then , after the market bounced on the resistance and hit the third touch on the HTF corrective structure. Currently, the market looks is corrective its previous move, a formation of a bearish flag could be a potential clue for a further bearish movement, targeting the level 3500! When, where and why would we step into the market? Considering the overall bearish bias, we would be looking only for short position. The market is correcting following our conditions, and a breakout of the actual LTF structure would be our entry for a short till 3500. In the scenario of deeper correction, we would consider to wait for a better entry, and the setup will be temporarily invalidated. If you enjoy this trade idea, please support our work with a thumb up and don’t forget to follow our social medias! Sincerely, Cybernetics Trading Lab DISCLAIMER Please note the views are not investment advice and should be used only for educational purpose.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Cybernetics_tl
28