SP500 SP500 index very very bad scenario. If fed will continue to gain interest rate, this time maybe we will see big recession! This is not sell signal, this is just one scenario i see on this chart.
Sp500short
Up and Down For 3 more weeksThis chart lays out the estimated Minor waves in Intermediate 5 as mentioned in my weekend analysis. These estimates place:
The bottom of Minor 1 around 3601.23 today for a total wave 1 loss around 205.68;
The top of Minor 2 around 3740.37 on October 12th for a gain around 139.77;
The bottom of Minor 3 around 3474.12 on October 18th for a loss around 266.25;
The top of Minor 4 around 3555.33 on October 20th for a gain around 81.21;
The final bottom for Minor 5, Intermediate 5, Primary 5, and Cycle A around 3340.36 on October 26th for a loss around 214.97.
These estimates nearly align with all levels from the other day but there is some give in take in them. We will see how close these levels as well as everything mentioned in the weekend analysis occur.
SP500 CONTINUES ITS DOWNTRENDAfter the Wednesday rebound, SP500 went into downturn again in Thursday, amid investors fears of economic slowdown and further interest increase.
The benchmark hit new low on Wednesday, before rebound, of 3602, which was not tested yesterday, but if the downtrend keeps its momentum, this level might be tested and even levels of 3480 might be reached. In the opposite scenario, if the trend reverses, the price might reach its high of 4160.
All technical indicators are confirming the bearish trend, with MACD histogram below 0 line and RSI approaching oversold zone of the 30 line.
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SP500 - ES1! targeting the CenterlineThe pullback from yesterday did not last very long.
The overnight market is pushing price down again.
Currently the move has halted at the 50% range of the Up-Leg.
The simple target will be the Centerline, further downside is open.
Almost done with Intermediate 3 down
Thinking we may have ended Minor wave 4 (yellow numbers) today with a strong jump. Expecting the GDP report to confirm for everyone we are in a recession tomorrow. The yellow lines are the historical quartiles for waves ending in 535, while the light blue lines are the same for waves ending in 35. The slightly longer lines are extensions of Intermediate wave 3 from wave 1.
I tend to favor the more specific data so I am considering the 535 data slightly more than the 35 data. We are looking at strong data for this fifth wave to last 2-4 days. If we do not go higher than today’s high, tomorrow would be day 1. Our original projection for Intermediate wave 3 had it ending on October 4. That would mean this wave could last for 4 days. I think Monday is most likely but we will count the waves down as we go. From a day’s perspective, waves 1 and 3 were equal in length. From an hourly perspective, wave 1 was 30 trading hours while wave 3 was only 27. This could put a maximum length of wave 5 at no more than 27 trading hours which is October 4th at 1430 eastern time (meaning until 1530). I think getting done before this is easily doable.
The levels to watch for Intermediate wave 3 based on Intermediate wave 1 are between 3477.78 and 3595.96. The levels to watch for Minor wave 5 based on Minor wave 3 are between 3483.30 and 3585.24. These Minor wave levels likely help narrow our target zone for the bottom to be less than 3585 and greater than 3525. I would plan an exit around 3550 or see how we move along the way.
Why the SP500 signals recession...Looking at the SP500 on the weekly view, it is clear to see that there is a downtrend, although I believe this is just the beginning of the drawdown.
We can see that after it reached the high of 4800 in Jan22, it dropped to around 4200 before forming a small series of green candles of recovery. *This is a pattern we have seen multiple times in the past before a market collapse. Please scroll down further*
After this initial 'drop 1' , we enter what I am calling 'drop 2', we have already seen a continued series of red candles which I believe to keep dropping massively - this isn't a hot take by any means, especially with many talking about the UK housing market bubble ready to pop, Putin talking of nuclear weapons, China potentially tipping into a recession from their housing market and finally with us just coming out of Covid.
sell short for pullback 1 or 2 target up to youoverbought short term
up much coz of coolinginflation while the fED SAID NOTHING ABOUT
S&P500 at the Warning LineAccording to the Rules of the Medianlines (Pitchforks), there is a high potential of a reaction from the Warning Lines (here WL1).
On strong Trends, price will trade through it and down the the ML (Medianline).
Be prepared for both scenarios.
SP500- Doomed for a 500 points dropIn my yesterday analysis, I said that SP500 is facing a very strong sell zone above 4.1k and a drop is possible from now on.
CPI data triggered this drop and the index fell hard putting in an immense bearish engulfing on our daily chart.
I expect a resumption of the trend that started at the beginning of the year and is very possible for SP to visit the pre-pandemic high at 3.4k zone.
At this moment the price is 3950, just above confluence support given by the horizontal trend line and the rising trend line started in June and a corrective rally can follow.
This rally should be considered a good selling opportunity by traders and ONLY a break back above 4.2k would change this strongly bearish outlook
Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob
SP500 - The CPI And The MedianlineaPerfect Re-Test.
Interesting enough CPI news pushed price up to the L-MLH and immediately rejected it.
Thant's crazy, but it's no wonder.
Allen Andrews Action/Reaction just works. Why? It's the law of nature.
Newton exposed it, Allen Andrews brought it to the markets.
More red to come, slight reprieve next weekHere is the plan for the near term. Still looks like we are in the tail end of Intermediate wave 1 inside of Primary wave 5. Looks like we are in for big drops after the Fed meeting, but the inflation report may remain tame in the short-term.
The estimated path for the rest of Primary wave 5 is here with the turnover occurring around US elections:
Here is the estimated path for the rest of the correction/recession.
Still hoping for the final bottom by March 2025, could be sooner or later of course.
SPY bulltrap again bef plunge;BO of 400/380 may see 350/320/280This is a SPY weekly chart after the Friday FED speech signaling continued hawkishness till inflation drops to 2%. Spy has a history of making bulltraps (higher highs on this weekly chart) before plunging as seen in my several boxes. It was rejected by the black downtrend line from the 476.44 ATH (see black falling wedge) & also rejected by the horizontal neckline of the H&S from top at around 330.
BULLISH SCENARIO: If 362.17 June low is the bottom for this ABC correction, then SPY should make a higher low at either the psychological 400 or 380 (previous H&S destination & also the maximum Fib 0.786 retracement of the latest June rally). From here a new ATH is coming in 4Q2022 when inflation drops lower that 4% & the FED pivots.
BEARISH CASE: SPY will not hold the 362.17 low if 400 & 380 fails. The final targets of this ABC correction may be the ff:
*350 which is the 1.618 FIB EXT of this ABC, the 0.50 retracement from pandemic low to ATH
*320 which is the 2.0 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.618 retracement from pandemic to ATH & also near the 0.382 retracement from 2009 bottom to ATH
*280 which is the 2.618 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.786 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & also near the 0.5 retracement from 2009 Bottom to ATH
These estimates should be considered as +/- zones & not exact levels. The pandemic low of 211.11 is not
likely to be retested.
Not trading advice
will we get an end of the day sell offoverbought stoch rsi and showing a bearish harmonic pattern, looking for a D leg sell off
SP500 INDEX PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE LONG TERM (DUMP)The overall evaluation on the SP500 index has been in a monthly bearish trend that has always confirmed itself via a monthly resistance trendline rejection ever since the apex turning point of this index from January 2022. Please be cautious on your risk management as always. The projected lines of direction (white) are not random skittles, but was produced by my experience of years of trading on how market moves work to build proper market structure. Yes, it is possible that we may even dump further than expected or pump tremendously due to some peculiar and consistent positive catalysts however this serves as a "guideline" on what to expect for the months to come.
The SP500 is very similar to the NASDAQ structure and as well as in crypto. We may not see any potential major consolidation ranges until we hit the 2020 support lines.
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Morning Update: How to place a winning SHORT TRADE?Last Friday right at the close you may recall I shorted the SP Futures via ES Options. At the time the SP Futures were 4274. I choose the 4400 strike AUG EOM contract as I had no Fibonacci areas of resistance at 4400 and by and large I'm conservative when shorting naked options. I received $825 per contract I sold (Short price was $16.50). I sold only 3 contracts for $2466 in premium. For that trade, ToS (Think or Swim) required $28000 in account equity. I share these details NOT TO BRAG but to educate.
How to place a winning SHORT TRADE?
1. Give yourself a chance to be wrong
Despite the best analysis and the clearest of patterns, I will always tend to be conservative when dedicating hard earned money. I AM NOT A SWING FOR THE FENCES TYPE OF TRADER. I put that trade on when the SP was 4274. I didn't do that thinking price could go to 4327 (which it did yesterday). But I choose 4400 because my analysis showed an extremely low probability price could reach that area in 18 days (Options Expiration).
2. I tend to want to be a seller rather than a buyer
When dealing with options the time value is where the meat of the profit comes from. I sold on a Friday, because immediately I pick up 2 days of time deterioration (The Weekend). I would never get this kind of wiggle room if I just shorted the SP outright, or bought puts. When dealing with options I NEVER BUY....NEVER. I sell. So if I'm bullish, I sell puts. If I'm bearish I sell calls. The last reason I sell rather than buy is the buyer's success hinges on only one moment in the future. 5PM EST on the day Options Expire. It doesn't matter how profitable the option buyer is if at 5PM EST on the day that option expires if the strike price has not been breached. The buyer looses 100% of their investment. That appears to be a terrible deal for the buyer....Nonetheless, the buyers line up for the junk I'm selling them. Once again, I have the time factor on my side because I'm a seller.
3. I choose Expirations closer to my trade rather then further away
Some may say, give yourself more time to be right. That's not what my goal is. My goal is to keep 100% of the premium...not be right. Case in point, I shorted these options when the SP was 4274. If on expiration day at 5pm EST the SP futures closes at 4399....I keep 100% of the premium. However, in terms of my entry it appears I entered that short way too early. Clearly from a standpoint of timing the short I was wrong....but in terms of making money I was 100% successful. I'm not keeping score, I'm trying to grow wealth.
In closing I'll share this. In my opinion you have the advantage when you're always a seller, rather than a buyer. Be conservative and choose strike prices outside of your most optimistic or pessimistic viewpoints (based on sound analysis, NOT GUESSES or EMOTION). Don't swing for the fences. The options I sold on Friday expire in 14 days. The SP is 20 points higher than when I sold, and my option is exactly where I sold it. In 3 days it moved my entry up 20 points. This is a winning short trade plan. Why? It appears (as of right now) in 14 days I'll make 9% on money I never spent, having never owned anything.
Best to all,
Chris
ES - S&P 500 rebound finish?After the P5 Low, we have a super nice count to the upside. Now we may have to face that the little party is over.
Potential P5 is in and if it's true, we go down at least the the U-MLH.
An opposite view is, that price will advance to the upside even more. If that's the case the potential to reach the second Warning-Line WL2 is baked in.
The Stochastics faster is already in a overbought territory. Further down moves and increasing Volume would confirm the first coffee-ground reading.
Let's observe.
ES - S&P500 Fractal Coincidence?The Pattern:
Sometimes it's too obvious to call it a coincidence.
The Pitchforks:
And as you can see, knowing how to use a tool can help to make intelligent decisions in trading.
The short time-frame:
The Pendulum Swing:
The Trade:
What if the trade fails? What if this fractal pattern is not playing out as expected?
Then it just was a trade.
Trading doesn't mean that current facts are an insurance for future outcome.
And that's exactly why you have to know your tools and protect your money.
BEARISH outlook in sp500Weekly outlook- bullish.
4hour trend;
currently we seem to be on a bullish tear which seems to have started at 15th july 2022. I have set a sell stop at 4080 if we break that zone my target is 3959.3
SPX triple Top Rejection 4140 - small rally or dump??1 - Looks like 4144 and 4140 double top - better seen on the ES1 FUTURES as a TRIPLE TOP
2 - Oscillators divergence BEARISH – Not supporting the new highs…
3 - Both tops are followed by Large engulfing RED CANDLES - better seen on the US500
4 - MACD – and RSI BEARISH signal
5 -VWAP - Held on the retracement BACK UP –Yesterday Fake Breakout above the VWAP
6 - FIB levels are the current support
7 Last candle was a RED dump –
All the earnings and FED news is out so we “”buy the rumour and sell the fact….””
CPI Next week Wednesday
PPI Thursday
I will add E-MINI’s to Micro Emini’s as this starts to go in the right direction with 4080 secure above me – Needs to break below 4080 and reject its attempt to recover that area... - Bounced there 3x so it will be good resistance against a later rally back??
SP500- I expect a drop to supportIn my previous SP500 analysis I said that the index could rise above the 4k figure and reach the next important resistance zone and, indeed, after it broke above the falling trend line and the horizontal support it accelerated gains and reached my target.
Now, although the rise from the recent bottom looks pretty bullish for the medium term, this 10% growth needs a correction.
From a technical point of view, as I said, we are facing strong resistance and the overall trend, which started this year, is not yet clearly bullish
In conclusion, selling around this zone can be a good strategy with a great R: R if we target 3.9k support
A potential bull trap is in the making in the SPYHi, this idea is based on the analysis of XLP/SPY vs the SP500 for the last 2 bear markets. All information is on the chart.
