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Trading strategy update - end of 2020 >> REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE This is an update to my trading plan set out a month ago - Plan for December 2020 to April 2021 . I set out these targets: Add funds month on month - disposable income only Monitor trends, but stop trying to snipe tops/bottoms Maintain a watchlist and a few good sources Enter positions only on good setups Keep position sizes small and only risk 1x position on 1x idea Sell at pre-determined levels Use micro positions on Uniswap >> UPDATE WHAT'S GOOD I'm adding funds every week - a certain % of my income. I'm also adding larger chunks where I can afford to based on my household budget, but these are strictly sitting in cash or USDT, not going straight into positions. I'm trying to stop getting lost in the Twitter chatter and focus on the macro trends. This has actually improved my trading. I've been looking at AltcoinSherpa's excellent videos on Bitcoin dominance and macro market analysis, to widen my perspective. As a result - I didn't enter any big alt positions, I kept a BTC position running, and managed to scalp SushiSwap run before correction. I'm depending far more on my own analysis for the first time, rather than Twitter traders. I've been doing my best ever setups and managed to enter NYSE:IPOC NASDAQ:INAQ NYSE:GIK based on reading the charts and setting sensible bids. I'm really enjoying the way these positions are building! I'm showing discipline with my position sizes. Right now they're all just about equal and I'm not over-exposed to any one asset - whether it's a SPAC or a cryptocurrency. In time, this will change but for now, it's totally uniform. This also allows me to better manage my cash reserves - for example, right now in my equities account I've got funds for 3 more positions. The only position I sold this month was NYSE:CRM . I feel sure this will have a run very soon, but I'm content to miss it and repurpose that position towards a SPAC - looking for an entry on NYSE:IPOF . I just think it has better upside, lower downside. WHAT'S NOT PERFECT YET I set up a series of watchlists but quickly realised that I'm not going to have the time or the discipline to check 30+ charts every week. I'm making use of TradingView's alerts feature. It's obvious to me that just setting alerts on key support or resistance levels and coming back in a month will pay off in future and will 'let the market come to me'. I got cocky very quickly and started showing my portfolio to friends and being more reckless - then I entered NYSE:ATAC with no research and minimal TA. Sure enough, was my worst entry this month. Just goes to show how important it is to stay humble and emotionally disciplined. Keep trading private (except for fellow degens on Twitter) and keep emotions out of it. So I've banned myself from entering new positions for a week or so. I've pulled all my funds off Uniswap for the moment. That may change in the coming weeks or months, but I'm not happy with the lack of stop losses, the high gas fees and the peurile, gross culture that surrounds DeFi microcaps. I feel frustrated at not being able to get on top of this market. The fact is that I still can't figure out DeFi (beyond the DeFi majors) there is so much information out there and so much data to sort through. I'm hoping to improve on this in 2021. Any suggestions are welcome! >> PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION SPACs are my best performing positions at present - basically, they are a faster, easier alternative to IPOs and they're in a bubble. They offer downside protection if you can buy them at $10, so my strategy is to buy in at $10-12 and then ride them to $20-50 depending on hype and how price action develops. That's minimal downside, decent upside. For this reason I'm building cash reserves in my equities account, this is my focus until Q1 2021 and then I'll re-assess. It's a no-brainer for me (credit to SPAC Mikey for the inspiration). Crypto-wise I'm only on BTC for now, closely monitoring alts and looking for a market-wide move to the upside. I plan to scale in to DeFi majors over the coming weeks to months - BINANCE:YFIUSDT , BINANCE:SUSHIUSDT , BINANCE:DOTUSDT and BINANCE:AAVEUSDT . For now I am watching and waiting with crypto - what I've found is most people scale into alts far too early in the crypto space due to confirmation bias - they love alts and never seem to trade other markets so they can't see the wood for the trees. It really skews your perspective to only trade one market as a trader and this is my biggest regret from 2017/18, so I'm making sure not to be a crypto-only trader going forward. >> TARGETS FOR JANUARY Here are my targets for next month: Put in place a routine for market and asset analysis - for example, chart BTC daily every week, look for new SPACS every day Build up a new watchlist of decent traders and analysts - do a study of their technique and what tools they use Set up a "day-trading only" bag with small position sizes - purely for trading practice, to get better at identifying and executing setups Create a Trello board to track catalysts for SPACs (letter of interest, definitive agreement, ticker change). Do a deep study of 1 trading topic - for example, Wyckoff analysis. That's it for this month - thank you so much for reading!
I
by theponzimaster
Ouster to Combine With Colonnade Acquisition CorpOuster, a Leading Provider of High-Performance Digital Lidar Sensors, to Combine With Colonnade Acquisition Corp. to Accelerate Digital Lidar Adoption in Industrial, Smart Infrastructure, Robotics, and Automotive Markets. Transaction expected to provide up to $300 million in gross proceeds, comprised of Colonnade Acquisition Corp.’s $200 million of cash held in trust (assuming no redemptions) and a $100 million fully committed common stock PIPE at $10.00 per share, including from Ouster’s existing investors, Cox Enterprises, Fontinalis Partners, and WWJr Enterprises. Pro forma implied enterprise value of ~$1.6 billion and fully diluted pro forma equity value of ~$1.9 billion Ouster shareholders will roll 100% of their equity holdings into the combined company The boards of directors of both Ouster and Colonnade have unanimously approved the proposed business combination, which is expected to be completed in the first half of 2021, subject to, among other things, the approval by Colonnade's shareholders and Ouster’s shareholders, satisfaction of the minimum cash condition, which is equal to the $100 million committed common stock PIPE investment at $10.00 per share obtained in connection with the entry into the Merger Agreement, and certain other customary closing conditions stated in the Merger Agreement. www.businesswire.com
C
by AlenCiken
Everything You Need to Know About SPACsIn this analysis, I'll be covering everything you need to know about Special Purpose Acquisition Companies, or SPACs, and my own strategy that I use to choose for risk minimization, and profit maximization. SPAK, the chart above, is an ETF that was specifically designed to invest in SPAC companies. This is not investment advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or loss generated from your investments. Trade and invest at your own risk. 1. What is a SPAC? - SPAC stands for Special Purpose Acquisition Company. - They’re also called Blank Check Companies or Shell Companies. But what is this special purpose that they’re talking about? - Their purpose is to acquire an existing company, so that it’s available for trades and investments in the stock market. - They need to acquire a company within a given time frame between 18 to 24 months, sometimes 36 months depending on the conditions. 2. SPAC vs. IPO - Normally, companies go public through a process called an Initial Public Offering, or an IPO. - There’s another method called Direct Listing, which is the method that Spotify and Slack used to go public, but for the sake of simplicity, we’ll just look at a comparison of IPOs and SPACs. - In terms of time period, SPACs can help companies go public much faster than if they were to go public through an IPO. - The process is also much simpler, and has less requirements, and it also costs less to go public through a SPAC. - But, the company’s valuation is discounted, when they get listed through a SPAC. - So for instance, if a company that has an enterprise value of 100 billion were to do an IPO, they’d be valued as a 100 billion dollar company, whereas if they get listed through a SPAC, they’d be discounted as an 80 billion dollar company. 3. Who Makes SPACs? - Normally, people with a reputation in the market make these SPACs. - For instance, Bill Ackman, who’s the CEO of Pershing Square Capital, is extremely well known as one of the best investors, and a lot of people want to bet their money on him. - So people like Bill Ackman are the ones who gather investors up, and create a SPAC. 4. Constituents - When a SPAC is created, and goes through an IPO, the shares are owned by three entities: the founder, individuals, and PIPE, which stands for Private Investment in Public Equity. - Private stake refers to the shares that the founders, or the creators of the SPAC get. - Public stke refers to the shares that individuals buy when the SPAC gets listed. - PIPE refers to the investors who lend money to the SPAC so that they can acquire a company. - So for instance, Let’s say that SPAC is trying to acquire a $10 Billion dollar company, but they only have $5 billion in their trust. - A PIPE can hop in, and lend the remaining $5 billion to the SPAC, and in return, they get shares of the acquiring company for a cheap price. 5. One SPAC Unit - One SPAC unit consists of 1 share and the warrant that comes with the share. - The Warrant is essentially the right to purchase the SPAC share at a designated price later in the future. - It essentially acts as an incentive for the SPAC investors who take on risk. - But you can use the warrant only within a designated time period, which is usually divided into two conditions: 1) either 30 days after the new company’s IPO 2) Or 365 days after the SPAC IPO 6. SPAC Trust Account The money for the SPAC is deposited in a trust, and the funds cannot be used for any other purposes than acquiring a company or refunding the investment seeds back to the investors, in case an acquisition does not happen. 7. Negotiation and Acquisition - When the SPAC gets listed, it’s time for people to search for companies to acquire, and negotiate. - Once everything is prepared, they now move onto searching innovative firms, normally between a timeframe of 18 to 24 months, sometimes a little longer depending on the conditions. - The business that they acquire needs to be at least 80% of the value of the trust account. - So for instance, if the trust account has $10 billion, the company that the SPAC acquires needs to be at least around $ 8 billion in fair market value. - Once the negotiation is done, and the acquisition is announced, they go through a process of getting permission from the SPAC shareholders. - If the SPAC shareholders agree to the acquisition, they get shares of the new company equivalent to the shares of the SPAC they hold, at a 1:1 ratio. - If they were to disagree, they can simply cash out their stake. 8. Example Here's an example to help your understanding: - A SPAC sponsored by BIll Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital made its debut to the New York Stock Exchange, with the largest blank-check IPO (PSTH). - The offering includes 200 million units at $20 each, railing $4 billion in proceeds. Each unit consists of one common share and one-ninth of a warrant, exercisable at $23. - So the ticker of this SPAC is PSTH, and the company they’re acquiring hasn’t been announced yet, so let’s just say that they’re buying a company called Mike’s Burgers, which’ll be listed under the ticker MIKE. 1. As an investor, you buy 9 shares of PSTH at $20 as soon as it gets listed. 2. You now have 9 shares, and a warrant that you can use, since 1 unit of the stock includes 1 ninth of a warrant. 3. So you have 9 shares, and a right to purchase 1 more share at $23. 4. Let’s say Mike’s Burgers got listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and the stock goes wild because the burgers taste great. 5. After the IPO, the stock trades at $50 a share. 6. You, as an investor, think that the stock prices could go higher for whatever reason. 7. So, you decide to wait 3 more weeks, so you can use your warrant. 8. 3 weeks later, the stock soars a bit more, and trades at $60 a share. 9. You now have 9 shares that you bought at $20, and you use the right to purchase 1 more share at $23. 10. You then sell all 10 shares at market value. So, when you sell all your shares for $600, and you’re left with an initial investment of $203, and $397 in profits. 11. So in a trade like this, you could double your investment easily. 9. Risks - First of all, there are risks involved with PIPEs selling their stake. - It’s not like these entities have a lockup period, they can sell their shares as long as they have permission granted from the SEC, so there’s risk involved in that. - For instance, Nikola’s stock prices (NKLA) plummeted after its PIPE sold all their stake. - Secondly, you’re investing in a paper company and you don’t know which company they’ll acquire. - Normally, SPACs are run by veteran investors who know what they’re doing, but there’s absolutely no guarantee that the company it acquires will be a good one. - For instance, there were rumors about how Bill Ackman’s SPAC would be acquiring Airbnb (ABNB) , but as you guys know, it turned out to be false. - So as an investor, who’s not an insider, it’s hard to invest in a paper company without knowing what’ll happen to the SPAC company. 10. How to Choose the Right SPACs - So, we obviously want to minimize risk, and maximize our returns, and to do that, it’s important to choose the right SPACs to get into. - I’ll be providing my own strategy on finding the right SPACs. I’ll call this the 2N strategy. - The key of this strategy is the combination of narrative and numbers . - This is how I select stocks to invest as well, but the approach to SPACs are slightly different. - What do I mean by narrative? I mean that the SPAC or the company that they’re acquiring, needs to have a good story. - They need to have a good leader for the SPAC, they need to acquire a company in a prominent field, and a management team with expertise in the field. - So here are some things I’d look for: - First of all, I would want to see a figure who’s already acknowledged and successful. - Of course it’d be better if they have a successful SPAC deal experience. (Bill Ackman is a good example of someone I’d have my money on.) - I’d also look at the backgrounds of members of the management team. - Look into what their expertise is, their work experience, professional backgrounds, and any noteworthy achievements. - This type of information is normally all available on the SPAC’s website, but you can also look them up on linkedin. - Also look into the institutions that are involved. - If big names like BlackRock and CVC are taking part, and they hold SPAC shares, that’s good news. - You want to make sure that acknowledged institutions are behind the project. - Last but not least, it’s important to look at the industry that the SPAC has eyes on. - You want to take part in a prominent industry, and obviously the trend is tech. - Electric vehicle SPACs have also shown some crazy gains recently, but make sure you invest in a SPAC that operates in a field that you’re familiar with, and has high growth potential. - Now, let’s take a look at what I mean by numbers. - Before we can talk about numbers, we first need to understand how we can capitalize on SPAC opportunities . - The best thing about SPACs is that you can minimize your losses, or even trade risk free if you’re lucky enough. - The offering price of a SPAC stock varies, depending on the company, but normally it’s around $10. - And the best thing about investing SPACs is that there is a price floor. - It’s not that prices are legally prevented from trading below the initial IPO price, but there’s no reason for it to be traded anything below than its offering price, because in the unlikely case that an acquisition does not take place, everyone gets a refund anyways. - So basically, given that you enter at the offered price, there’s nothing to lose, and everything to gain. This is what makes SPACs special. You might ask, how much is there to gain? - The answer is at least as much as its net asset value. - In case you don’t know, the net asset value is calculated by subtracting all liabilities from the assets a company has, and dividing it up by the total number of common shares. - If you actually do your due diligence, and calculate the net asset value of the SPAC you’re investing in, you’ll realize that the net asset value normally ranges around $10.10 to $10.25 right off the bat. - This means that you have a 1-2.5% default return before even taking into account the warrant value, which is substantial, and the upside opportunity. - So, going back to what I mean by numbers, you want to either find a SPAC that is traded at around its offered price or below its offered price. - A SPAC that is already trading at 3 times its offered price probably won’t get you the best returns. - You want to find a SPAC that’s cheap. - Also, make sure you check the trust value, the SPAC’s market cap, and their net asset value. - You want to make sure you get into companies with a high trust value, and a net asset value that is not too far from its market price. Conclusion As long as investors conduct their own research, there is huge opportunity they can capitalize on, with very little to no downside. Thus, I highly encourage that people start exploring the world of SPACs, and maybe even consider adding prominent companies to their portfolios early on. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight :)
Editors' picks
SEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
42
LCA SPAC merger playOODA Process Observe + Market is bullish after a few days of pull back. + Stimulus talk back on the table with EOY deadline + SPAC has been hot + SPACs pulled back in recent days + Online gambling is going to grow and there are a few big players around it: $DKNG $PENN $GAN, etc. - some doubts about the merger not happening - Founder has other capital risks in restaurants that are under COVID pressure Orient Short term Bullish Decide add shares as close to $20 or lower. Hold through merger vote. if gains > 100%, Sell 50% of shares then let it run "on the house" if gains < 100% by EOY, sell 25% and sell the rest at first sight of weakness in this name or the market pull back. Act Setting limit buys for tomorrow
LLong
by Pr0diJ
Genius Sports Group To Go Public Through Combination With DMYDGenius Sports Group To Go Public Through Combination With NYSE-Listed dMY Technology Group II - Pro forma enterprise value of the merger of approximately $1.5 billion, or 8.0x GSG's currently projected 2021 revenue of $190 million. - Transaction includes a $330 million fully committed private investment ("PIPE") at $10.00 per share. anchored by institutional and experienced industry investors - The combined company is expected to have approximately $150 million of growth capital (assuming no redemptions) and a substantially debt-free balance sheet to accelerate its U.S. and international expansion through organic growth and strategic acquisitions - dMY II shareholders, GSG shareholders and PIPE investors will hold shares in NYSE-listed combined company The Boards of Directors of both dMY II and GSG have unanimously approved the transaction. The transaction will require the approval of dMY II's stockholders, and is subject to other customary closing conditions, including a minimum cash condition. The transaction is expected to close in Q1 2021. finance.yahoo.com
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by AlenCiken
btwn is considering a potential merger with TokopediaBridgetown Holdings Ltd., the blank-check company backed by billionaires Richard Li and Peter Thiel , is considering a potential merger with Indonesia’s e-commerce giant PT Tokopedia, according to people with knowledge of the matter. he special purpose acquisition company is exploring the structure and feasibility of a deal with Tokopedia, one of the most valuable startups in the southeast Asian nation, the people said. The SoftBank Group Corp.-backed firm could be valued at $8 billion to $10 billion in a transaction, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the discussions are private. Deliberations are at a prelim Bridgetown raised $550 million in a U.S. initial public offering in October, following other so-called blank-check companies such as those associated with billionaire investor Bill Ackman and former U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan. Merging with a SPAC has become an increasingly popular method for closely held businesses to raise capital for growth. A potential merger with Tokopedia would also be in- Merging with a SPAC has become an increasingly popular method for closely held businesses to raise capital for growth. A potential merger with Tokopedia would also be in-line with the strategy that Bridgetown set out in its prospectus: to focus on a target in the technology, financial services or media sectors in Southeast Asia. Tokopedia became Indonesia’s second most valuable startup, just behind ride-hailing and delivery giant Gojek, by scoring early backing from SoftBank and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Temasek Holdings Pte invested about $350 million in Tokopedia, people familiar with the matter have said. E-commerce platforms including Tokopedia, Alibaba’s Lazada Group and Shopee -- a unit of Singapore-based Sea Ltd. -- have been some of the beneficiaries of coronavirus-driven lockdowns this year as they moved quickly to serve the millions of people forced to make their first online purchases while staying home. www.bloombergquint.com
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by AlenCiken
CAN'T SPELL GAINS WITHOUT NGAWho amongst us likes the color red? If you're color blind don't answer. I know I don't, so I READ into NGA's chart a little more. This thing is so solid the words liquid and gas literally are not in its vocabulary. And I know what you're thinking, oh wow another EV company, NKLA did so well. Well let me put those fears to rest much like Nikola Tesla himself was put to rest many years ago. It's ELECTRIC. Don't be SHOCKED to see $20 soon. I literally reCOIL at anyone who doubts its potential energy. tl;dr buy buy buy (no backstreet boys)
NLong
by thestonks
PSTH: SUPERBULL BIASNothing much could be done to technically analyze PSTH given that it has a short historical data (just IPOed). However, given that it is a blank check company (SPAC) with potential to raise more capital to acquire long-term high growth companies and some hardcore value investor and highly intelligent men are behind this SPAC, we could only imagine the upside that PTSH shareholder might get. Looking forward to enter around 25 level and hold it for long term. DISCLAIMER: This is not an investment advice nor a buy call. This is just some analysis of based on some technical factors coupled with just a little or totally nonexistent fundamentals. This analysis is based on lagging (past) data (ie historical prices) thus any forward looking statement is just based on perceived highly probabilistic assumption(s) to assist personal trading decision.
PLong
by mdzulfid