IBEX 35: Nearly Three Consolidation IBEX 35: Nearly Three Decades of Stability and Long-Term Growth Prospects
The IBEX 35 chart distinctly showcases an impressive trend over nearly 30 years, from 1997 to 2025, fluctuating between 6,500 and 12,500 points. This extensive consolidation period has historically provided a solid foundation for significant trend movements.
Key Points:
🔸 Downward Trend from 2008 to 2023:
Throughout these years, the index displayed a persistent downward trend, remaining within a declining channel. However, in 2023, this trend was overcome, creating new avenues for growth.
🔸 Breakaway from the Downtrend:
Currently, the IBEX 35 has exited the confines of its downward trend. It is important to note that this shift may be partly influenced by high inflation, which elevates the nominal values of assets.
🔸 Current Resistance Zone:
At present, the IBEX 35 is approaching the upper boundary of its range, near 12,000 points. A successful breakout and consolidation above this level would confirm a bullish outlook. In such a scenario, the index could increase by 70% over the next decade, reaching between 15,000 and 20,000 points.
🔸 Risk of a Bearish Scenario:
If the 12,000-point threshold is not breached and the index fails to stabilize above it, there is a significant risk of a decline towards the lower end of the range (7,000–8,000 points). This correction could last between one to two years, but it typically concludes with renewed growth following the testing and breaking of the downward trend.
Optimistic Projection:
I lean towards the bullish scenario, where the IBEX 35, in the short term, decisively surpasses the 12,000-point level. This would propel the index to historic highs near 15,000 points and, in the long run, to levels around 20,000 points.
Both Scenarios Indicate Growth:
Regardless of the short-term movements, both scenarios suggest continued long-term growth. Even with a correction towards the lower levels (7,000–8,000 points), the subsequent rise would be the logical continuation after testing and overcoming the downward trend.
Spain35
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Strong very short-term upward momentum from the October 13th lowStock markets reverse downtrend and may have entered a “corrective” cycle
Upcoming economic events
Tuesday: US consumer confidence
Wednesday: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
Thursday: ECB interest rate decision
Friday: US personal income and consumption
Commentary:
IBEX 35 Index: Strong very short-term upward momentum from the October 13th low, current price 7,680 and faces resistance near 7,830, long positions can be technically supported provided price can hold above the 7,426 support which would intersect at a potential 40-degree tentative trend line, if trend line proves true new long positions can be supported near the 7,426 area with stops at 7,385.
Naturgy: Megabullish trendIt's not very common to see a Spanish dividend stock performing like this these days but the Australian fund IFM is trying to increase its stake in Naturgy and nobody is willing to sell the stock cheap. From the technical analysis perspective, there are no resistance level until last highs of 2007 (38.83). Although we are in overbought territory, we don't recommend to sell a winner like this one, especially if you bought it when it had a better dividend yield than it has today. As long as there are no signals of weaknesses on the IBEX 35 in the weekly or monthly charts such as bearish divergences, hold it.
IBEX 35 is back, next stop 9066Here at Human Traders we've analyzing closely the IBEX 35. Remember, this one does not include dividends as the DAX 40 does. The IBEX 35 will test again the MEGA resistance level, next top on 9066 points. If the resistance level is broken out, the next stop will be on 11400, and then, there will be no limit at all. We are long on this one as the general outlook of the market remains positive and this week we've seen huge bullish signals across all indicators and price movement.
Back to Pre-COVID19 Trend. Price Target 25 for the Coming YearFundamental analysis indicates a rewarding buy and the past year wouldn't have disappointed, exceeding the market average with steady growth. However, as the market approached the GameStope Squeeze, amid the buying frenzy of the beginning of the year, SOLARIA hit the ceiling, tried to revive the trend again back in the day of the squeeze, and then gave up to a bearish trend ever since, now ongoing for 3 months.
To analyze the effect and the prospects, I included her ESP35 index as an indicator of the local market ecosystem (please note that SOLARIA is not part of the index). I also included NYSE:BB to show the effect of the GameStop squeeze clearly.
First thing to notice is the pre-VOVID19 trends:
Blackberry was downwards with a relatively small angle.
ESP35 was upwards but fell heavily as a result of the first lockdown.
SOLARIA was up with a relatively small angle.
After the first lockdown, and as the market gained momentum from the sudden fall of prices, SOLARIA was the largest and most steady gainer among the 3. Looking at the 3 graphs together, you can identify October 28, 2020 as the start of the major bullish trend that culminated with the GameStop squeeze and caused SOLARIA to lose half the gains of the prior year. Now, things look as follows:
Blackberry trending downwards towards the pre-COVID19 levels, losing all the gains of the squeeze.
ESP35 is trending upwards towards its towards the pre-COVID19 levels.
SOLARIA, as the pitchfan shows, is currently leaving the COVID19 trend altogether, towards the original one of the smaller angle, as highlighted in the graph.
Perhaps, the most important piece of detail here is that the RSI is not showing an oversell, which means that SOLARIA's price may continue slipping slowly without resistence until the COVID-19 effect is cancelled and it finds support in the original, pre-COVID19 trendline.
I will pick something between the trendlines of the market and the pre-COVID19 level and go for a price target of 25 by April next year. Since the fundamentals are good, the price is at a low, and is cheap, a long-term long would make sense.
Spain35 IBEX35 Short ideaOn the 60 minute chart, price is obeying the blue dotted transagonal support & resistance contracted channel.
As price hits the (daily) orange (transagonal resistance), we should see a correction leading to a move to the downside to the lower (daily) orange transagonal (support) line at approx to 7015.1 to 6930.7.
*Black lines = daily S/R
IBEX short 30 minute chartIBEX35 30 minute chart.
We see the red dotted traversing resistance line (once a support level) coming into play here. This level has disciplined the price (since 2012) whenever price has come into contact with it and has controlled price action steady through the last 8 years.
We go short as stochastic (not shown) is in overbought territory and we're hitting both the red dotted long-term resistance line and the regular resistance line of 9809.1. I also see what looks to be a bearish butterfly pattern formation. As always, wait for price action (to sell, in this case), and manage your risk.
Have a great Friday trading, and enjoy the weekend. Best wishes.
All comments welcome.
IBEX35 - long on support2.01 R/R long on the IBEX35 - 15 minute chart
We have a double bottom formed. Of course, if candle closes below, that is invalidated.
Stochastic in oversold territory, Ichimoku signal in red (waiting for the signal to rise).
T.P. 9561.4 approx
S.L. 9297.3 approx
(I say approx because of different brokers).
Best wishes trading this week!
All comments welcome.
Ibex 35 Bearish reversal - shooting starMás claro, chorizo pamplona.
The shooting star is a bearish reversal pattern that looks identical to the inverted hammer but occurs when price has been rising.
Its shape indicates that the price opened at its low, rallied, but pulled back to the bottom.
This means that buyers attempted to push the price up, but sellers came in and overpowered them. This is a definite bearish sign since there are no more buyers left because they’ve all been murdered.
Spain 35 Signal D1As you can see in the graph above we are in a bearish pattern with accurate support and resistance, It is important to note that the very long trend is a downward trend, but the short trend is precisely an upward trend!
Our recommendation for this index is buying until resistance
Buy Spain 35
Entry Price: 9190
Stop loss: 9050
Take profit: 9400