SPCE - An Excellent Long Term Investment OpportunityTechnical Analysis
SPCE is starting to show some bullishness and strength here. I think SPCE will continue trending up, and my key price targets are $2.15 and $2.33 on this move up. A lot of stocks have experienced huge gains after earnings, if SPCE has a similar situation I can see a move up to the $3.07 to $3.47 resistance zone. I wouldn’t count on it, but that is the type of market that we are in right now.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc (NYSE:SPCE) has made significant strides in the commercial spaceflight domain, as evidenced by its 2023 financial results and operational achievements. With a notable increase in revenue and efforts to reduce losses, Virgin Galactic stands at a pivotal juncture in its quest for profitability and sustainable growth in the burgeoning space tourism sector. This blog provides a comprehensive analysis of SPCE’s financial performance, highlighting the company’s strengths and weaknesses as it navigates the complexities of the aerospace industry.
Financial Performance Highlights
Revenue Growth
In 2023, Virgin Galactic saw its annual revenue increase to $7 million, up from $2 million in 2022. This growth is primarily attributed to the commencement of commercial spaceflights and membership fees from future astronauts, signaling the company’s entry into operational commercialization.
Net Loss Improvement
The company’s net loss showed a marginal improvement, narrowing to $502 million in 2023 from $500 million in 2022. This slight reduction in net loss reflects Virgin Galactic’s ongoing efforts to streamline operations and manage costs effectively.
Operating Expenses And Adjusted EBITDA
Virgin Galactic succeeded in decreasing its GAAP total operating expenses to $538 million in 2023 from $502 million in 2022, demonstrating a focus on operational efficiency. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA improved slightly to $(427) million in 2023 from $(431) million in 2022, indicating a cautious optimization of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Strong Cash Position
A pivotal strength for Virgin Galactic is its robust cash position, with cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $982 million as of December 31, 2023. This financial cushion is essential for the company’s sustainability and future growth ambitions.
Strengths
Virgin Galactic’s progress in 2023 underscores its capability to increase revenue streams through its innovative space tourism services. The successful conduct of six human spaceflights within six months is a testament to the company’s operational excellence and commitment to delivering exceptional experiences to its customers. Moreover, the strong cash position enables Virgin Galactic to continue investing in research, development, and expansion, positioning it for long-term success in the space industry.
Weaknesses
Despite the positive developments, Virgin Galactic faces several challenges. The net cash used in operating activities and negative free cash flow highlight the capital-intensive nature of the aerospace industry and the significant investments required to maintain competitive edge and innovation. Furthermore, the marginal improvement in net loss and adjusted EBITDA suggests that while the company is moving in the right direction, achieving profitability remains a challenging endeavor that requires strategic focus and operational efficiency.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, Virgin Galactic is focusing on the completion of its spaceship factory and the assembly of the initial Delta ships, with commercial service expected to commence in 2026. This forward-looking approach is crucial as the company aims to scale its operations and meet the growing demand for commercial space travel.
Conclusion
Virgin Galactic’s 2023 financial results reflect a company at the cusp of significant growth, armed with the strengths of increased revenue, operational achievements, and a solid cash position. However, the path to profitability is fraught with challenges, including managing high operational costs and achieving financial efficiency. As Virgin Galactic continues to pioneer the space tourism sector, its ability to navigate these challenges while capitalizing on its strengths will be key to its long-term success and profitability.
Spcebreakout
Virgin Galactic In the process of Bottoming out? Hi, this is a Technical Analysis on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), it is viewed on the 1 Week timeframe.
Our current candle is currently in the process of breaking out BELOW our UPSloping Support Trend Line, highlighted by the RED circle.
Note: The candle closes, end of trading session on 7th of August, Monday. Meaning our current candle is not accurate, so we need keep a close eye.
If we close ABOVE, our trend continues, giving us yet another week to tread along and hopefully break our ressistance trend lines.
Our RESISTANCE is 2 FOLD
1. Upper Resistance line of DOWNWARD CHANNEL
2. RED HORIZONTAL LINE above us
If we close BELOW, it means we are attempting a "Trend Change", but this candle alone is not enough, We would need to look for CONFIRMATION. This can be way of a specific single candle printing or a candle pattern formation. (I will be sure to update in the coming weeks).
Our 1st Target would be the BLACK Horizontal Support line below
Our 2nd Target, which is also a CRITICAL ZONE is our STOCK LOW @ around $3.11, depicted by RED LINE
->Below this, we form a lower low and make NEW LOWS
Our 3rd level would be where Lower BLACK line of the DOWNWARD channel and PRICE meet, below the RED Horizontal line.
Our overall DIRECTION currently, is DOWN. Evident by the DOWNWARD CHANNEL drawn with BLACK lines. **Until PROVEN OTHERWISE**.
-> For us to break the downtrend, we need to break and CONFIRM ABOVE the upper trend line of DOWNWARD CHANNEL.
So when im looking at the current candle, im thinking its MORE PROBABLE we go down.
Notice how the Week of June 12th and June 20th, we had Large Upper Wicks form, this indicates SELLING PRESURE. The pressure was due to convergence of resistance of the BLACK and RED Resistance lines. The pressure from this event, can be whats pushing our price down.
My thought process is that i actually want PRICE to hit the LOWER SUPPORT LINE of the CHANNEL. Doing so, as long as the RSI maintains Higher Lows will lead to the formation of a BULLISH DIVERGENCE.
This leads to prices MOVING to the UPSIDE, in most cases. Can be a BOTTOMING pattern, in my opinion.
Now lets look to my indicators for more evidence.
RSI is getting tight in this symmetrical triangle pattern. We will soon see a breakout ABOVE or BELOW. If we break BELOW, look to the RED line, we want to stay above here for the possibility of a BULLISH DIVERGENCE to be in the picture.
ALso note: Symmetrical triangles usually break out to the upside.
ORANGE RSI line, should also stay ABOVE the Black moving average. Look left, everytime we CONFIRM below, PRICE DROPS DOWN.
STOCH RSI, is in the process of a BEARISH CROSS, this if confirmed on Monday will bring in momentum to push prices DOWN.
ADX which is also a momentum indicator, I would like to see the BLACK moving average, curve up, GREEN Line also curve up breaking out of the upper border of rectangle. This would indicate to me that a large amount of bullish momentum is coming in.
CONCLUSION:
Overall, i believe SPCE is in the process of carving out a BOTTOM. Its evident by the range highlighted by rectangle, we are in some sort of CONSOLIDATION. Our current price action must be observed. In the chance we do CONFIRM below and go lower in price, it will provide great entry levels for BUY ORDERS. If we also hit the lower support trend line of the down channel, the potential for a BULLISH DIVERGENCE may become more probable. With all the evidence being presented, it is important to observe SPCE to see what it does in the coming Weeks to Months.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
SPCE Ready to Go? Virgin Galactic Holdings
Short Term - We look to Buy at 10.11 (stop at 9.18)
Broken out of the channel formation to the upside. Trading volume is increasing. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Previous resistance, now becomes support at 10.00.
Our profit targets will be 14.31 and 16.41
Resistance: 14.00 / 17.00 / 20.00
Support: 10.00 / 7.00 / 5.00
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Virgin Galactic delayed commercial flights until Q4 2022 Virgin Galactic delayed the start of start commercial flights until Q4 2022.
I expect it will touch the 16.20usd strong support from which it should consolidate before another leg up.
Virgin Galactic reopened ticket sales with prices starting at $450,000 per seat. They sold 600 tickets so far.
Jefferies sees Virgin Galactic's total addressable market at $120 billion and Virgin Galactic's revenue hitting $1.7 billion by 2023.
If the brokerage firm is right, then the 4.775Bil mk cap is undervalued right now.
I`m looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$SPCE is nearing the bottom of its multi-year channel! 200% +$SPCE has been very predictable in the past and has the potential to bounce over 200% here as it's nearing the bottom of a very long channel.
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. , an integrated aerospace company, develops human spaceflight for private individuals and researchers in the United States. It also manufactures air and space vehicles. The company's spaceship operations include commercial human spaceflight, flying commercial research, and development payloads into space. In addition, it engages in the design and development, manufacturing, ground and flight testing, and post-flight maintenance of spaceflight vehicles. The company was founded in 2017 is headquartered in Las Cruces, New Mexico.
SPCE GETS PRICE UPGRADE TO $35 TARGET (LONG SET UP)TITLE- BUY SPCE ON PULLBACK
Asset-Stock
ENTRY 1 19.90
ENTRY 2 16.90
SL 13.90
TP.1 24.90
TP.2 29.90
TP.3 34.90
Shares of Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) jumped 3.4% in premarket trading Monday, after a bullish call from Cowen analyst Oliver Chen, saying the spaceflight services company is the way to won the "final luxury frontier." Chen initiated coverage of Virgin Galactic with an outperform rating and stock price target of $22, which is 26% above Friday's closing price of $17.46. " is uniquely positioned to benefit from the growing consumer interest toward luxury experiences, especially among high-net-worth individuals," Chen wrote in a note to clients. "We believe a substantial growth opportunity lies ahead with the commercial spaceflight business, which already has 600 reservations, and the development of high-speed point-to-point travel." He said a Cowen survey indicated there was a large addressable market for commercial spaceflight, with high long-term engagement and awareness. The stock has rallied 51.2% year to date through Friday, while the S&P 500 has advanced 8.6%.
SPCE To the Moon or Fake Out Breakout?Will SPCE make it to the moon or is it another fake out breakout???? In analyzing the 2 hour time chart for SPCE you can see that it is teetering the oversold area yet the MACD is still in a bullish uptrend with no sign of change in the trend so that is promising for SPCE. If the bulls can push this past prior resistance of 21.70, SPCE will certainly head in the direction it is intended to go... straight to the moon. If the bears sneak in and steal the spotlight, fake out breakout. Since March 23 (COVID fear) SPCE has been trading in a rather large spread of 14.51 to 21.70 only breaking resistance shortly from July 16-Aug 4. With fear of the second wave of COVID-19, let's hope SPCE can prove this is a COVID proof business model. Space travel is a reality and is only in the beginning stages but once the first flight goes, I feel this stock will be unstoppable. Gravity proof with no bear able to drag it down.
Bearish Ascending Broadening Wedge gets BTFO, Bullish breakoutWow, $SPCE has broken out of its ascending broadening wedge to the upside, this typically only occurs less than 25% of the time. The fundamentals on Virgin Galactic are propelling and controlling the technicals at this point. This is extremely bullish, and as long as it continues to respect the support levels being put in, it's a potential blue sky breakout.
$SPCE testing its breakout resistance, big test coming!!SPCE is coming down to test the the previous resistance of the breakout trendline. This is typical of breakouts, and if it bounces from this point, I'd say we are cleared for higher.
If it gives up the range in the oval, this will turn into a failed breakout and SPCE could see much lower prices unfortunately.
FWIW, SPCE moves with the indices pretty aggressively, so I'm going to say everything will be dependent on the markets for the next 48hrs.