#Spx / SpySpx heading high after touching multi month resistance turn support area look clean above 200 Dma
A+ setup perfect place for risk and reward ratio trade
DYOR!!
Spdr
✅SPY BEARISH BREAKOUT|SHORT🔥
✅SPY was trading in a
Strong uptrend in a
Rising wedge pattern
But now we are seeing a
Bearish breakout and the
Breakout is confirmed so
We are bearish biased now
And we will be expecting
A further move down
SHORT🔥
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✅SPY TIME TO SELL|SHORT🔥
✅SPY is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above at 459$
After trading in a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 452$
SHORT🔥
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Evidence For Super Bubble Theory SPY/Nikkei 225 Index 20231. I see record amounts of shorts opening still open, call selling, put purchasing speculators are shorter than 2000 / 2008 / 2020 combined.
FRED raises rates to this level and yet nothing budges on a large scale so what's going on?
2. Take a look at the Japan Nikkei 225 Super Bubble during 1980s - 1990s, I use a (MA 23) on the Nikkei and double it (MA 46) for the SPY as that represents a similar trend forming.
3. Next take a look at the RSI for both charts when the bubble exploded in Japan the RSI completely reset to baseline. SPY RSI did not reset during the last selling period.
4. Further take a look at the aggressive angle drop of the Nikkei 225, when the show was over it was not a sideways moving bump it was straight down vertically.
5. Could it be the dead cat bounce? negative take a look at the Nikkei dead cat bounce a sharp minimal rise followed by another vertical fall, the current "bounce" is nearing all time highs and going sideways not straight up that would indicate "puts" "shorts" covering.
6. If this is a super bubble we should see short covering and capitulation to the upside over the next months and the market will grind vertically up suckering everybody back into the markets.
7. If I'm correct and this is a Left shoulder forming of a bigger head and shoulders that would put the SPY near 600-800.
So the counter speculative bet would be to be long here till the SPY reaches that maximum velocity vertical move with a peaking RSI, this would be betting against the entire market being short, followed by once the market starts to get bullish and calls are bought and longs are open and the "Super Bubble" narrative is not a crazy term but the normal term, its time to reverse go short and sell everything.
I follow Michael Burry as an interesting person who called a similar scenario from a book and I'm starting to wonder was he early again a few years of the peak
Bubbles don't finish unwinding sideways, it needs to be vertical
There's two major problems when looking at the SPY today
One - USM2 debasement is a real metric changer
Two - The QE from 2021 has backfired
Things are going terribly wrong for the FRED they know Japan tried forms of QE prior to the 1989 melt up that led to the demise of the entire Japanese economy for decades.
In 2019 its was an emergency and if QE did not launch the GFC 2.0 would have happen during the credit freeze.
The FRED are now trying to taper this path changing direction to not cause a Japan style melt up.
219% was the first warning sign Japan lost control and rates stopped working
205% is your warning sign the FRED lost control and the rates have once again stopped working.
Both scenarios there was too much leverage for a safe landing forcing the BoJ and the FRED to lower rates near Zero.
FRED's idea lets raise rates faster and higher than BoJ did to pre strike a market melt up.
Warning Warning Warning FRED your rates are not working and if the SPY takes out the previous high its going to ignite the final wave of the bubble.
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If this does playout the warning sign will be a parabolic almost vertical move to the upside once that happens you have about 2 years to avoid the vertical drop.
Why is this happening if its so clear? simple the US government is in a debt deficit crisis the FRED is lying trying to send the economy to 0% inflation you cannot tax no inflation and the government system will halt, pretty soon the FRED will be forced into some form of yield curve control / QE to keep inflation elevated.
Lessons from history YOU DONT PUSH THE QE BUTTON. YOU DO NOT PUSH THE YCC BUTTON. Once you do and your debt to GDP goes past 100% there's no going back without an eventual system meltdown.
SPY SPDR long will go to 630 USDClear Long trend, correction catched above 50% retracement
Trend bullish
short term PT 490
A break above 491 will push SPDR to 630 and higher
If SPY demonstrates a downward movement below the levels of 434.00 and 430.50, it would indicate a further downside potential. In such a scenario, the initial wave of targets to consider are 425.00, 420.25, and 416.00.
The behavior of SPY around the 416.00 level becomes particularly crucial. Should the price fail to hold above this point, it could trigger additional downward momentum, potentially targeting 411.00, 406.00, and 402.00 in a second wave of potential declines.
Preparing for a debt default + safest assets during this period.Ever since the GFC 1.0 and the initiation of QE during 2009, the Federal Reserve has been stuck in a never ending debt spiral loop they cannot get out of.
2017 they started the raising of rates silently knowing that the debt is almost at the point of no return (end of currency low inflation without a depression).
2019 C19 (strange timing) something leaked and completely destroyed the hope of the USA evading the issue of a hyperinflation event.
2023 the FRED have raised rates faster than ever in history to get back on track and something scary has actually happen, Inflation barely fell and it did not work, they have not really announced this issue yet fully to the public and continue to blame foreign countries on inflation.
There's three pathways to this story.
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1. The US discovers a new technology that can create unlimited resources and power and can be productive positive and pay back its debt before 1 month.
2. The US Defaults investors panic and flee the UST / USD system cratering the DXY below 70, losing the Reserve Currency Status of the World, making inflation go parabolic within weeks.
3. The US Does not default and starts QE to infinity, lowering rates back to Zero praying the money leads to production breakthroughs and it outpaces the debt before hyperinflation kicks in possibly raising taxes past 50%.
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Now seeing this the most likely scenario is option 3 playing out. This next part is not financial advice as there could be capital controls and market controls similar to halts and restrictions during this period.
Worst Assets?
1. Credit Default Swaps ( during a crisis credit defaults will skyrocket and if you watched The Big Short you should know if bonds fail or get locked up there is no payout on the CDS's as banks and institutions are mostly insolvent )
2. Any Securities not directly owned by your name on a broker ( If you use a broker who holds your investments in their name and does not transfer them into your name if they go down you go down )
3. Paper ETF Gold / Silver ( paper gold and silver its not real )
4. Real estate (there's a good chance capital controls will be in place removing the free market from housing no matter how much your land is worth you might not be allowed to sell it or get taxed heavily )
Best Assets?
1. Bitcoin ( Bitcoin acts like a Credit Default Swap with Zero Risk. Why? there's no counterparty holding your bet if you allocate to Bitcoin directly, hence institutions loading up just in case, also you can move it instantly and cannot be halted or seized by governments shutting down the market )
2. Gold / Silver Physical ( Physical metal, No Counterparty risk hard to move large amounts in times of chaos though)
3. Securities Directly Owned ( Company share's for example directly owned by you can't be touched by a banking crisis, whatever happens on the other side a company can always dilute and restructure if capital is lost)
Its certain the US Dollar will lose purchasing power, people will run into the safest protected assets like tech stocks, Bitcoin, Gold regardless if the price is not reflecting as you know the capital is at least tied to something.
Nobody knows how extreme the government will get during periods of stress, smart money will flow to assets that cannot be detained or halted.
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)
*GREEN LINE*
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN)
*RED LINE*
US INTEREST RATES (USINTR)
*WHITE LINE*
SPDR Select Sector Fund looking great for upside to $120Perfect Cup and Handle has formed with XLE.
We just need to wait for the crucial breakout and close above the brim level.
With moving averages, all is looking great with 7>21>200 - Green - Bullish
RSI - Buy divergence >50 - Bullish
Target 1 $120.00
GENERAL INFO:
The SPDR Select Sector Fund is a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are managed by State Street Global Advisors.
It is designed to track the performance of specific sectors of the S&P 500 index. There are 22 different funds covering sectors like Energy, Financials, Health Care, and Technology.
This is available as it's a cost-efficient way for investors to gain exposure to specific sectors of the market, without buying individual stocks.
This fund also gives an indication on the sentiment in general markets. Which looking at this analysis it's bullish and we can expect the markets to continue up in February. Fantastic!
SPX500 Update 🛎️The bear case in SP500 looks much more solid than in USOIL. Here the price action looks anemic, struggling at resistance formed by falling trendline, the shape of the ending diagonal looks complete and the index ready for new lows.
GLD SPDR two bullish breakout patterns in one!W Formation has formed and the price has broken above recently.
We then have a larger Cup and Handle forming, which the price is now completing the Brim Level.
This market is correlating well with Gold and seems to be lagging the current Gold rally. This means, we can expect upside for GLD very soon.
My first target is $174.68
SP500 Update ⚠️ IMPORTANT ⚠️Recent developments in Gold and Russian stock market make me reconsider SP500 chart. I think we are in the immediate bearish scenario with correction in wave B taking the shape of regular flat abc.
SPDR Bottom Support bendImportant:
****** With INTRS symbol added to compare and find points of bottoming, please enable AUTO and % to the chart) ********
I added the Interest rate line to check how long will it take to the market to start climbing out from bottom Pivot (once reached there), while comparing it to other yearly crises
When Interest rate gets to the highest point during a down trend period (Bear market), it will stay there for quite a while (about 3-5 months) before the fed starts decreasing interest rates again
2000 Dot-Com Crisis
Interest rates peaked at 6.5%
5/2000-12/2000 7 months interest rate stayed at peak
8/2000 Market peaked at 152
9/2002 - Market hit bottom (Pivot)
5/2000- 9/2002 From first time market hit highest Interest rate till bear market bottomed
8/2000 - 6/2007 Market took almost 7 years to go back to highest peak from 2000
2008 house market crisis
Interest rates peaked at 5.25%
6/2006-8/2007 (1 year and 2 months stayed at peak)
10/2007 Market peaked at 154 (***** ONLY 2 POINTS HIGHER THAN 2000 PEAK ******)
2/2009 Market hit bottom (Pivot)
6/2006- 2/2009 From first time market hit highest Interest rate till bear market bottomed
10/2007-03/2013 Market took 5.5 years to go back to highest peak from 2007
GLD: Sandbox ⛱After the hard work of finishing wave iv in magenta, we expect GLD to play a bit in the yellow sandbox between $150.72 and $140.40, all the while completing wave (4) in yellow. Then, it should get down to business again – or rather get up to business, as we expect GLD to climb northwards, crossing the resistance at $171.23. There is a 35% chance, though, that GLD could rise above this mark directly and without amusing itself in the yellow sand.
Down to 3200Given the horrible macro trends and outlooks (which are yet to be priced in) we are on our way to 3200
SPDR S&P 500 ETF - Short PositionWhen looking at SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST current underlying value and most recent price behaviour when using a 2-hour range, investors can see a confirmed break out. The point in which the selloff crossed the $408 price point, a rejection of bullish momentum. A candle-close confirmation consolidation occurs around the $398 price point before further bareish momentum. Underlying price movements of SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST witnessed a loss of its initial gains in this instance, the confirmed break out shows bareish correction after a failed attempt to keep underlying stock prices higher.
When observing 50 and 100 day ranged EMA averages investors can see that on the 15/09/22 shorter 50-day EMA moving average crossed beneath the longer 100-day EMA moving average. This dead cross was followed by a strong down trend, underlying prices falling 1.7%.
This was after bullish rallies that were witnessed since 19/07/22 when shorter 50-day EMA moving average crossed above longer 100-day EMA moving average. This fresh bullish crossover was followed by a rally that saw the underlying share value to increase over 12%. On 23/08/22 the EMA dead cross saw a sell off over 5%. The fresh bullish cross witnessed on 12/09/22 was soon rejected on 15/09/22. This dead cross saw a sell off over 1.7%.
Currently EMA moving average lines are not moving back towards one another, instead they are moving parallel in a different trajectory. Inside bars highlight bareish momentum. This was after the rejection of bullish momentum. Therefore, this bareish down trend is more likely to continue.
Based on EMA moving averages and candlestick patterns and behaviour we are bareish in sentiment. We anticipate that the stock will fall further and have taken a short position as a result.
GLD: Warm-up 👟GLD is warming up in the lower magenta-colored zone between $152.85 and $159.20, where it still has some room left to finish wave iii in magenta. Afterwards, it should jump up into the upper magenta-colored zone between $163.39 and $171.23 to complete wave iv in magenta, before sliding into the yellow zone between $150.72 and $140.40, where the overarching downwards movement should end. There is a 40% chance, though, that GLD could decide to rise earlier already and thus could directly climb above the resistance at $171.23.
SPY SPY FED meeting Now first things first for spy I have calls above 386.19 and I have puts below 384.77
Next do not let these meetings fool you they already did there buying and selling . You they are cracking down on Nancy for that market manipulation trading with her and her husband but tbh they don't care nor with they throw them in jail. That's what these folks do manipulation in every aspect of life .
But we have to win the game and stop blaming cheaters it happens .
told you guys yesterday don't get caught short and you seen they did the same things from Friday . pump it up and leave your ass with the bag. be smarter please . comment what you think .
#spy What was up with the quick pump on Friday?Hey wasup, SPY SPY happy MONDAY TRADERS
I hope you all had a great weekend. Unfortunately Bitcoin didn't lmao. Its really funny what they did on Friday 30 mins before closing .
If the dollar stays around $109.70 or above $110.00 you can kiss all of that pump goodbye and see you again at 383 -385. luckily for me I placed puts right. before close on Friday . Stuff like that is tooo good to be true. I will continue to post my out look of the market through out the week.
If you would like for me to post my entries for other stocks this week let me know and I will post them and give you my IG.
Please do not get caught short in puts or calls. minimize your losses and take advantage of your executions.
Fed meets this week so you know what that means . They tried to price in the interest rates last week so they can pump it up this week just to catch you with your pants down by the end of the month don't say I didn't warn you.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF - Short PositionWhen looking at SPDR S&P 500 ETF’s current underlying value and most recent price behaviour when using a 2-hour range, investors can see that a three-bar pattern is made up of a Doji and an Engulfing candle. In this instance, the Doji’s suggest a sideways correction whilst the Engulfing red candle suggests continuation of the bareish momentum.
When observing 50 and 100 day ranged EMA averages investors can see that on the 26/08/22 shorter 50-day EMA moving average crossed beneath the longer 100-day EMA moving average. This dead cross was followed by a strong down trend, underlying prices falling 5%. This was after bullish rallies that were witnessed since mid-July. On 19/07/22 shorter 50-day EMA moving average crossed above longer 100-day EMA moving average. This fresh bullish crossover was followed by a rally that saw the underlying share value increase over 15%. Currently EMA moving average lines are not moving back towards one another, instead they are moving parallel in a different trajectory. Therefore, the down trend is more likely to strengthen before corrections occur.
Based on EMA moving averages and candlestick patterns and behaviour we are bareish in sentiment. We anticipate that the stock will fall further and have taken a short position as a result.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF - Bullish PositionCurrently trading below 20 and 50-day EMA moving average investors can see that the underlying share price of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is undervalued. Valued at $413.58 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is trading in line with its 100-day EMA average, it’s important to mention that there is still a strong possibility that the stock will fall even further in line with it’s 200-day EMA before bullish corrections occur. Regardless these technical signals indicate to investors that we should anticipate bullish momentum for this stock.
When looking more closely at the stock and its performance, Fibonacci retracement pivot points shows investors that it’s currently trading at a strong support level of 1.00; further supporting this undervalued and bullish notion. Investors should anticipate corrections towards its resistance level. Investors should also take due care to the strong possibility that the bearish sell trend might reach a stronger support level before bullish corrections occur.
Based on the above technical indication, we have set a buy price in line with the Fibonacci’s lower 1.382 support pivot, in between 100- and 200-day EMAs. We have also set a sell price just above the 20-day EMA level. Based on Fibonacci, we have set a sell price in line with the central PP level, in between it’s resistance and support.
GLD: Cooling off 💦It is still summer, so no wonder GLD wants to refresh itself in the upper blue zone between $163.03 and $160.17, into which it has leaped so enthusiastically that we have to wipe droplets of water from our faces, watching the chart. Here, GLD should now finish wave (ii) in blue before resuming the overarching upwards movement. However, as part of our secondary scenario, there is a 40% chance that GLD might need more refreshment and thus could jump below the support at $158, diving into the lower blue zone between $159.23 and $152.88. There, it should then do a lap to complete wave alt.(4) in yellow before rising again.
