Expected pattern for SPX - December 5thTDST support level at 2632 level could be a good entry long for a bounce up to 2656 MEJT target.
The day has a potential to be an all day rally closing around HOD.
Happy profitable trading ;o
sp500daytrader
Spdr
How much will overbought Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector Fall? XLPThe Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. An internal and stronger bull trend has taken shape since shortly after the US elections in November 2016. However, this fund is currently near its long-term resistance point which will most likely lead to one of two future moves. The fund could break above this long-term resistance and continue strong gains, or it could reverse course and at the very least return to its support established since the election. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip while it continues its overall bull trend.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 80.8116. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought. The fund could rise over the next few days or begin its descent now. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 21.5180. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is moving up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3859 and the negative is at 0.5248. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators are at extreme levels indicating a pending reversal of the fund is imminent. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 97.0441 and D value is 94.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently well overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for one or two more days at the most before ultimately turning downward. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators.
On three occasions since September 2013, the RSI, positive VI, and stochastic have been at similarly extreme levels at the same time. All three occasions led to drops for the fund. In September 2013 the fund dropped 5.25% in 13 trading days. In October 2013 the fund lost 2.91% over the next 35 trading days. Eventually the fund dropped more than 7% from the October RSI peak (the bottom occurred at the end of January 2014). The smallest decline was seen in February of this year when the fund declined 1.63% over 22 trading days. A natural decline will occur in our current instance, the main question is how much?
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 1.63% over the next 25 trading days if not
How much will overbought Consumer Cyclicals Sector Fall? XLYThe Consumer Cyclical Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. An internal and stronger bull trend has taken shape since the US elections in November 2016. However, this fund is currently at its long-term resistance point which will most likely lead to one of two future moves. The fund could break above this long-term resistance and continue strong gains, or it could reverse course and at the very least return to its support established since the election. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip will it continue its overall bull trend.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 70.8987. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is below overbought levels. The fund could rise over the next few days or begin its descent now. The three previous overbought levels are annotated with the vertical blue line on the chart above. The drop from this overbought level occurred on all occasions, but the near-term drop in February was minimal.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 17.4983. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has been stuck in a positive but limited channel since December 2016. This indicator has begun to move up again. Although this is a delayed indicator, it may point to upward movement for the fund.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1761 and the negative is at 0.7501. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been slow moving but currently show the fund moving up.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 97.0441 and D value is 94.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently well overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for a few more days before ultimately turning downward. All similar stochastic overbought levels since the election are annotated on the chart above with a vertical orange line. All seven instances lead to a drop in the fund.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 2% over the next 25 trading days if not sooner.
How much will overbought Materials Sector Fall? XLBThe Materials Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. The trend has narrowed but remains upright since December 2016. The fund has been in a more specific trend channel since February and has created firm support and resistance levels. The fund is currently at that resistance level. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip will it continue its overall bull trend.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 64.9868. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is below overbought levels, however, the RSI has developed a resistance point of its own. The RSI has been reaching lower highs since December 2016 and is once again at this key resistance point. If the RSI begins to retreat, the fund should follow suit.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 4.4168. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. Like the RSI, the TSI has created relative resistance since December. This indicator is about to hit that threshold. Failure to substantially break above this resistance, the fund should drop in the near-term.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1174 and the negative is at 0.7410. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a relatively tight trend since mid-February. When the positive VI was last at its current level, the fund tapered down which ultimately led to a drop to the fund's support line (dotted pinkish-purple on the chart).
The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.2124 and D value is 87.3198. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic currently overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for a few more days before ultimately turning downward.
The last three times the fund hit its resistance, it did manage to drop down to its support level in less than 12 days. The first drop was in January over 9 trading days and it resulted in a 3.62% decline. March saw a 3.41% decline over then following 6 trading days while April had a 2.91% drop over 11 days. These timeframes and declines could be blueprints for the current bounce off of the resistance level.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 2% over the next 23 trading days if not sooner.
Biotech ETF Double Top Drop To Technical SupportThe SPDR S&P Biotech ETF began its departure from the bearish double top around the beginning of May. Typically the stock drops toward its last strong support level, and most times drops below that as well. Currently, the stock has been trending down, but is yet to make it to this shared support at 66.30. With the gains for the ETF on June 1, it could be an excellent time to setup a short position.
When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 51.3469. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is neutral. The ETF could move either direction but may not be prone to volatile swings.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 0.4073. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is pointing down and the 50 day moving average for the TSI has been on top and parallel for at least two weeks. This is an indicator the ETF could continue its overall downtrend.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.9448 and the negative is at 0.9331. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a tight channel and are both below 1. The first indicator to cross above 1 could be the prevailing direction in which the ETF will move.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 28.7305 and D value is 35.2426. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently trending down, but has at least five days until it could reach oversold territory. This will be the key indicator to watch on when the potential bottom of the downward movement is reached.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4% over the next 19 trading days if not sooner.
Short-Term Upside For Retail?The SPDR fund tracking S&P Retail has been trending up for years. Lately the industry and fund have been on some rocky footing. Currently the fund is at a potential key support level with value to the upside. The projected future movements are highlighted below based on technical indicators.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 36.0704. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The RSI has established two upward trending levels of support. Currently the RSI just bounced off of one of these lines. The last three times this occurred since this RSI support trend began resulted in quick gains of 5.36%, 7.83%, and 9.60%. This is the first indicator this fund could turn bullish.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 4.0070. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has also been trending up since the beginning of 2016. Although the current TSI level is not near this supporting trendline, the delay in the indicator could be the reason. It is important to note the TSI has come down from its most recent peak and its current position normally occurs as the fund is sliding downward. This indicator may be telling us the downward movement may continue for a little bit longer before the fund progresses upward.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.6967 and the negative is at 1.1494. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Even though both indicators are unfavorable to bullish movement, they have both begun to reverse course. This reversal does require more movement to favor new bullish movement for the fund. If this movement occurs within the next 3 days, the fund should begin moving upward.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 4.0425 and D value is 11.0491. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is clearly in oversold territory. Previous oversold levels for this indicator during the fund's upward trend have always lead to a reversal. This is another strong indicator the fund will move upward.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside, although definitive upward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could gain at least 4% over the next 27 trading days if not sooner.
Technically Speaking, Real Estate Could Move UpThe SPDR fund tracking the Real Estate Sector (XLRE) has been in a clearly defined upward trend since November 2016. As of the close on May 12, this fund is at the bottom of the cycle which is near a strongly established support. The projected future movements are highlighted below.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 41.0131. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading has the fund relatively neutral although it recently came down from near the overbought level The RSI is currently at a similar level where all the previous bottoms have occurred. This is the first indicator the fund should begin moving up.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 2.6338. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, however, it is also near the same level where the previous bottoms in this cycle have been established. The TSI has also been trending up in a bullish wedge pattern. With the indicator around the same support level, this is the second indicator the fund should begin moving up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8623 and the negative is at 1.1873. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the negative indicator is slowly moving upward which is bearish for the fund. At the same time, the positive indicator has begun to move upward. When the negative indicator finally does reverse downward and the positive makes more strident gains, the fund should be in its upward cycle.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 39.1887 and D value is 41.1774. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is technically in the middle of the oscillation possibilities at the moment. The next 2-5 trading days are pertinent to determine if the actual long-term movement is to the upside.
I have broken down the last three times the fund was near its current point in the trend channel. All three of them resulted in a minimal gain of 3.92% in a minimum of 12 trading days. My current projected movement is on the conservative side, however, the stop-loss will be any movement below 31.24. Movement to this level breaks outside the support level and could lead to major downward movement for the fund.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside, although definitive upward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain at least 3% over the next 22 trading days if not sooner.
More information at LimitLessLifeSkills
Everything Energy Is Down, XOPThe SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Fund has been in a defined bearish trend for all of 2017. Due to this bearish movement, the 100 day moving average (DMA) is about to cross below the 150 DMA. This actual event has occurred 6 times in the history of the fund and has resulted in a minimal drop of 1.541%. It has a median drop of 6.918% and maximum drop of 25.563% over the following 22 trading days. Although I typically write on events that have occurred, this event is likely and greater benefit could be gained by making moves earlier.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 43.0611. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund has been moving lower. The RSI has been trending lower since May 2016. Even though the RSI typically cycles between overbought and oversold levels, that has not necessarily been the case with this fund. Overall the RSI is failing to make newer highs which is another significant signal of downward movement. This overall downtrend should continue as long as the RSI stays below this trendline.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -16.2542. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund is trending down. Similar to the RSI, it is been trending down and failing to make new highs since May 2016. However, one new high was achieved near the end of 2017, before falling back into the downtrend. This overall downtrend should continue as long as the TSI stays below this trendline.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8265 and the negative is at 1.0848. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund slightly moving up recently, but should begin its downtrend again.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 22.6852 and D value is 16.1343. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the fund has been flirting with oversold territory for at least two weeks. Most likely one of two things will occur. The fund will continue to slowly move down with up days causing the stochastic to stabilize and rise even though the fund continues its downward bias. The second possibility would have the fund rise up and out of the downtrend either temporarily or permanently.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4.7% over the next 32 trading days.
Low Energy In Energy SectorThe Energy Sector SPDR Fund XLE has been in a defined bearish trend for all of 2017. Due to this bearish movement, the 100 day moving average (DMA) is about to cross below the 150 DMA. This actual event has occurred 15 times in the history of the fund and has a minimal drop of 0.263%. It has a median drop of 2.067% and maximum drop of 38.054% over the following 16 trading days. Although I typically write on events that have occurred, this event is likely and greater benefit could be gained by making moves earlier.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 40.2699. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund has been moving lower. The RSI has been trending lower since May 2016. Even though the RSI typically cycles between overbought and oversold levels, that has not necessarily been the case with this fund. Overall the RSI is failing to make newer highs which is another significant signal of downward movement. Only once over the past year has the RSI broke above this trend before immediately following suit and heading down. This overall downtrend should continue as long as the RSI stays below this trendline.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -19.3683. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund is down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7572 and the negative is at 1.0678. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund slightly moving up recently, but should begin its downtrend again.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 21.2870 and D value is 19.7285. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the fund has been flirting with oversold territory for at least two weeks. Most likely one of two things will occur. The fund will continue to slowly move down with up days causing the stochastic to stabilize and rise even though the fund continues its downward bias. The second possibility would have the fund rise up and out of the downtrend either temporarily or permanently.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3% over the next 26 trading days.
Awaiting a correction soonWaiting for a correction down in this market soon. I have exited most of my long positions, but do still keep one alive to try time the breakout.
A few points in favor of this idea;
There are two wedges forming inside the daily channel
Upper channel line has already been touched once by last bullish wave.
Bollinger bands are getting very narrow, implying a breakout (most likely down) soon.
Strong potential reversal zoneRisky week ahead. There is considerable resistance from 2080-1950. If Hillary wins, there should be a great buy opportunity in this market the next few days.
First up is the 200 SMA just below last Friday's price. Next is two strong fib levels at 2062 and 2042.
If 1950 and the long term trend (purple line) breaks next week and closes below on the weekly chart, I would exit any longs for now.
Expecting a reversal soonI do not think we will go any lower than around 2060 before the election which is where the weekly earlier top trendline goes, as well as the fib 0.382 since the Brexit bearish drop. -That is ofcourse if Hillary wins the election. If Trump is to win, expect at least a drop down to 1950 which is the fib 0.382 of feb16 after the China breakdown.
For traders with some experience and looking for good positions for longs, both levels mentioned are good for long positions in my opinion.
waiting for a move up from the ascending triangleFOMC meeting tonight will probably be the trigger for a move up from the ascending triangle that has formed inside the rising wedge on the daily chart.
Healthy correctionThere is strong resistance building below at around 2110 at fib 0.618 of last wave which I do not belive we will break
$SPY : Smaller Inverse H&S inside a Dominant Inverse H&S ?I'm offering this idea as an alternative scenario to the larger "possible" Primary H&S which started forming last year. If 2 of the major catalysts (Oil & Fed meetings ) in March are received well by the markets I'm imagining it playing out something like this leading into 3rd quarter. I listed the various Inflection points I felt were relevant. Sorry if the chart is too "busy"
Thank you,
@MuRk_MoNsT3R
S&P "TAKE TIME TO READ PRICE ACTIONFrame your trade is more important than what indicator to use or what line to draw.
S&P 500 still in a triangle?Updating my count.
Let's see if institutionals confirm the triangle or if they prefer to manipulate price into some different direction...
S&P 500 offering a triangle for Christmas?Menu for Christmas:
- FED offers a rate hike;
- Santa Claus offers a little triangle.
MACRO VIEW: XLU STRUGGLING TO GET BACK INTO MACRO UPTRENDSXLU - the SPDR utilities sector ETF is struggling to get back into macro uptrends, while showing no bias on short term.
On long term perspective the price is trading around upper 1st standard deviation from 5-year mean, which is a 5-year uptrend border. The price is also technically in 10-year uptrend, trading above the upper 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean.
Thus one can only say that XLU has restored its long term upward bias if it trades firmly back above 44.
On short term basis price is trading within 1st standard deviation from both 1-year and quarterly mean, showing no directional bias at the moment.
MACRO VIEW: XLK IN UPTREND ON ALL FRONTSXLK - the SPDR Tech sector ETF s in firm uptrend both on macro and on micro perspective, and it is the best-looking US sector ETF from the SPDR range.
On long term perspective price has broken back into the 5 and 10 year uptrend, trading above upper first standard deviation from 5 and 10 year means respectively
On long term perspective price has recently broken out into the quarterly and 1-year uptrend, trading above upper first standard deviation from quarterly and 1-year means respectively
Looks bubblish? maybe, but it is OK to dance while the music plays!=)
MACRO VIEW: XLB IN UNCERTAINTY ON ALL FRONTSXLB trades within uncertain territory both on macro and micro basis.
On long term perspective price has failed its 10 and 5 year trends, and now trades between 2 macro levels - the 5-year mean at 41.50 and the 10-year uptrend border at 46.50.
On short term perspective price also showing no particular trend - XLB is trading within 1st standard deviations from both quarterly (66 day) and 1-year (264 day) mean.
Thus in general currently more lateral action is most likely at XLB, until it breaks one of the key macro levels outlined on the chart.
MACRO VIEW: XLI HOLDS 10-YEAR UPTREND, STILL NOT BACK IN 5-YEARXLI holds 10-year uptrend at the august selloff, but did not yet recover its 5-year uptrend.
On long term perspective price has failed its 5-year uptrend (fell below 5-year uptrend border) and tested its 10-year trend during the august selloff (tagged the 10-year uptrend border). The 10-year uptrend test proved successful and the price has been recovering since then.
On short term perspective nothing stands in the way of the recovery, as price is showing no short term trends - XLI is trading within 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means.
Thus price is likely to return into long term uptrend if it breaks above 55. Downside risk will be apparent below 50 level.
