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SPY SPDR SP500 Long Second-Largest Weekly InflowSector-Financial/Banking ETFs Log Second-Largest Weekly Inflow This Year Technicals: Trend long bullish Trend continuation confirmation During LSEG Lipper’s fund flows week that ended June 21, 2023, investors were overall net redeemers of fund assets (including both conventional funds and ETFs) for the first week in three, withdrawing a net of $29.7 billion. Taxable bond funds (+$2.8 billion) and tax-exempt bond funds (+$672 million) attracted new capital. Equity funds (-$17.0 billion) and money market funds (-$16.1 billion) suffered outflows on the week. Index Performance At the close of LSEG Lipper’s fund flows week, U.S. broad-based equity indices reported negative returns - the Russell 2000 (-0.59%), Nasdaq (-0.91%), S&P 500 (-0.16%), and DJIA (-0.08%) were all in the red. For the DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, this was the first negative return over the last four weeks. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Total Return Index (+0.33%) recorded its fourth straight weekly gain. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Total Return Index (+0.64%) logged its third week in the black in four. Overseas indices traded down - Nikkei 225 (-1.61%), Shanghai Composite (-1.45%), FTSE 100 (-0.29%), and DAX (-0.85%). Rates/Yields The 10-two Treasury yield spread remained negative (-0.99), marking the two hundred and fifty second straight trading session with an inverted yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 2.28% on the week. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average (FRM) decreased for the third straight week - currently at 6.67%. Both the United States Dollar Index (DXY, -0.85%) and VIX (-5.15%) fell over the course of the week. Market Recap Our fund flows week kicked off on Thursday, June 15, with the weekly initial jobless claims data showing seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000. The four-week moving average was 255,750 - an increase of 8,500 from the previous week’s revised average and the highest four-week average level since November 13, 2021. The U.S. Census Bureau also announced the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services report highlighting estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales were up 0.3% from the previous month and up 1.6% from 12-months ago - many forecasts had a monthly decline (-0.1%). Equity markets fared well on the day, both the S&P 500 (+1.22%) and Nasdaq (+1.15%) logged their sixth straight daily gain following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s announcement that the Fed will not increase interest rates this earlier week. On Friday, June 16, the University of Michigan published their consumer sentiment report detailing an increase in the U.S. to 63.9, marking the highest level in four months. These figures also beat forecasts, reflecting there may be greater market optimism than originally thought with the debt ceiling drama passed (for now) and inflation trending downward (for now). Treasury yields rose on the day, led by the five-year yield (+1.89%). Equity markets fell on the day - Russell 2000 (-0.73%), Nasdaq (-0.68%), S&P 500 (-0.37%), and DJIA (-0.32%). On Monday, June 19, markets were closed in the U.S. in recognition of Juneteenth. On Tuesday, June 20, President Joe Biden stated that U.S. and China ties are on the “right trail,” saying that progress was made during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s two-day Beijing trip. The President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping seconded Biden’s comments and said, “China respects U.S. interests and does not seek to challenge or displace the U.S.” He added that the, “U.S. needs to respect China and must not hurt China’s legitimate rights and interests.” The U.S. Census Bureau published its Monthly New Residential Construction that showed privately owned housing starts in May were 21.7 percent above the revised April number. Privately owned housing completions in May were also up (+9.5%) above April’s revised estimate. Both equity markets and Treasury yields fell on the day - DJIA (-0.72%) and S&P 500 (-0.47%), while the 10-year Treasury yield fell (-0.98%). Our fund flows week wrapped up Wednesday, June 21. Equity markets fell for the third straight day - Nasdaq (-1.21%), S&P 500 (-0.52%), DJIA (-0.30%), and Russell 2000 (-0.20%). Fed Chair Powell came out and insinuated that the central bank’s rate hikes are not done this year, saying, “Earlier in the process speed was very important. It’s not very important now…Given how far we’ve come, it may make sense to move rates higher but to do so at a more moderate pace.” The two-year Treasury yield increased by 0.38% on the day, while the three-, five-, 10-, and 30-year yields all fell. Exchange-Traded Equity Funds Exchange-traded equity funds recorded $12.1 billion in weekly net outflows, marking the second weekly outflow in three and third largest this year. The macro group posted a 0.34% loss on the week, its first week in the red over the last four. Growth/value large cap ETFs (-$6.2 billion), growth/value small cap ETFs (-$2.4 billion), and sector other (-$1.5 billion) were the largest outflows among equity ETF subgroups. Growth/value large cap ETFs reported their largest weekly outflow in 12 weeks while realizing their first weekly loss in four. Sector financial/banking ETFs (+$949 million), growth/value aggressive ETFs (+$366 million), and sector real estate ETFs (-$79 million) were the largest inflows under the macro group. Despite logging back-to-back weeks of negative performance, sector financial/banking ETFs posted three straight weeks of inflows. This was also the subgroup’s second largest weekly intake on the year. Over the past fund flows week, the top two equity ETF flow attractors were iShares: Core S&P 500 (IVV, +$2.7 billion) and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP, +$1.2 billion). Meanwhile, the bottom two equity ETFs in terms of weekly outflows were SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY, -$6.0 billion) and iShares: Russell 2000 ETF (IWM, -$2.6 billion). Exchange-Traded Fixed Income Funds Exchange-traded taxable fixed income funds observed a $3.1 billion weekly inflow - the macro group’s sixth weekly inflow in seven. Fixed income ETFs reported a weekly return of negative 0.35% on average, their third week in the black in four. Corporate investment grade ETFs (+$1.8 billion), government Treasury ETFs (+$771 million), and flexible funds ETFs (+$325 million) were the top taxable fixed income subgroups to post inflows over the week. Corporate investment grade ETFs have logged six weeks of inflows over the last seven while realizing back-to-back weeks of plus-side returns. International & global debt ETFs (-$45 million), corporate high yield ETF (-$13 million), and balanced funds ETFs (-$7 million) were the top taxable fixed income subgroups to witness outflows on the week. International & global debt witnessed their first weekly outflow over the last four, despite four straight weeks of gains. Municipal bond ETFs reported a $514 million inflow over the week, marking their first outflow in the three weeks. The subgroup realized a positive 0.27% gain, marking fourth straight week in the black. iShares: iBoxx $Investment Grade Corporates (LQD, +$1.5 billion) and Wisdom Tree: Floating Rate Treasury ETF (USFR, +$436 million) attracted the largest amounts of weekly net new money for taxable fixed income ETFs. On the other hand, iShares: AMEX:HIGH Yield Corporates ETF (HYG, -$626 million) and Schwab US TIPS ETF (SCHP, -$366 million) suffered the largest weekly outflows under all taxable fixed income ETFs. Conventional Equity Funds Conventional equity funds (ex-ETFs) witnessed weekly outflows (-$4.4 billion) for the seventy-second straight week. Conventional equity funds posted a weekly return of negative 0.27%, the first week of losses in four. Growth/value large cap (-$2.0 billion), international equity funds (-$634 million), and equity income funds (-$624 million) were the largest subgroup outflows under conventional equity funds. Growth/value large cap funds have suffered 26 consecutive weeks of outflows while observing a 0.18% loss on average. The four-week net flow moving average has remained negative for 74 weeks. Sector technology conventional funds (+$18 million) was the only subgroup to report weekly inflows. This was the third week of inflows over the past for this subgroup. Conventional Fixed Income Funds Conventional taxable fixed income funds realized a weekly outflow of $313 million - marking their first weekly outflow over the past three weeks. The macro group logged a positive 0.28% on average - their fourth straight week of gains. Conventional corporate investment grade funds (+$415 million), corporate high yield funds (+$278 million), and government mortgage funds (+$23 million) reported the largest weekly outflows under taxable fixed income conventional funds. This was the third straight weekly inflow for conventional corporate investment grade funds. Conventional flexible funds (-$661 million), international & global debt funds (-$144 million), and balanced funds (-$96 million) were the top taxable fixed income macro group to produce outflows. Flexible funds have suffered 15 weeks of outflows in the last 16, despite four consecutive weeks of gains. Municipal bond conventional funds (ex-ETFs) returned a positive 0.28% over the fund flows week - their seventh weekly gain in nine. The subgroup experienced $158 million in inflow, marking the second inflow in the past three weeks.
SLong
by DaveBrascoFX
XLF Daily TimeframeSNIPER STRATEGY (new version) It works ALMOST ON ANY CHART. It produces Weak, Medium and Strong signals based on consisting elements. NOT ALL TARGETS CAN BE ACHIEVED, let's make that clear. TARGETS OR ENTRY PRICES ARE STRONG SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS. ENTRY PRICE BLACK COLOR TARGETS GREEN COLOR STOP LOSS RED COLOR DO NOT USE THIS STROTEGY FOR LEVERAGED TRADING. It will not give you the whole wave like any other strategy out there but it will give you a huge part of the wave. The BEST TIMEFRAMES for this strategy are Daily, Weekly and Monthly however it can work on any timeframe. Consider those points and you will have a huge advantage in the market. There is a lot more about this strategy. It can predict possible target and also give you almost exact buy or sell time on the spot. I am developing it even more so stay tuned and start to follow me for more signals and forecasts. START BELIEVING AND GOOD LUCK HADIMOZAYAN
AMEX:XLFShort
by hadimozayan
3
LOOKING AT THE 2019 RECESSION FROM A ELLIOT WAVE PERSPECTIVE This analysis is purely written from an Elliot Wave perspective. There are no macroeconomics or any other economic theories involved. SPY: Looking at Monthly SPY, we had the completion of wave 1 in 2000. Followed by a recession in 2001-2002. We then had a pullback to the 2000 high, which then ended up double topping and then falling to lows in 2008. This is a clear ABC Flat, where a flat either ends at 1:1 retracement or a 1.272 retracement. As we can see on the chart we ended in a 1.272 retracement and began recovering again. Which resulted in a huge impulsive 3rd wave up. In Elliott Wave Theory wave 3 is the most impulsive wave of all. I've made a 5 wave subcount inside the 3rd wave, which has a extended 5th sub wave, which ends at a 2.618 extension. This is because wave 3 closed below the 1.618 extension. The 2.618 also concludes with the overall 5 waves count, where the 3rd wave ends at 2. extension. (yellow wave). This suggest that we will see a retracement back to (most likely) a 0.5 fib extension of the 3rd wave (yellow). DOW: To keep this short, we are seeing almost the exact same pattern with DOW. We have a 3rd wave ending at a 1.618 extension (instead of the .2 extension on the SPY.). If we count the subwaves of the 3rd (yellow) wave, we have a 5th subwave ending at a 2.618 extension like we had with SPY. We would now expect the same ABC retracement to the 0.5 Fibonacci of the 3rd wave. Conclusion: Overall we see overbought levels with both the SPY and DOW, this will lead to a recession, which could be worse than the financial crisis in 2008 and the great depression in 1930. I expect a 35-40% drop in these indexes.
DJ:DJIShort
by LukeSkywalker
1
How much will overbought Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector Fall? XLPThe Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. An internal and stronger bull trend has taken shape since shortly after the US elections in November 2016. However, this fund is currently near its long-term resistance point which will most likely lead to one of two future moves. The fund could break above this long-term resistance and continue strong gains, or it could reverse course and at the very least return to its support established since the election. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip while it continues its overall bull trend. When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 80.8116. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought. The fund could rise over the next few days or begin its descent now. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 21.5180. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is moving up. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3859 and the negative is at 0.5248. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators are at extreme levels indicating a pending reversal of the fund is imminent. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators. The stochastic oscillator K value is 97.0441 and D value is 94.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently well overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for one or two more days at the most before ultimately turning downward. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators. On three occasions since September 2013, the RSI, positive VI, and stochastic have been at similarly extreme levels at the same time. All three occasions led to drops for the fund. In September 2013 the fund dropped 5.25% in 13 trading days. In October 2013 the fund lost 2.91% over the next 35 trading days. Eventually the fund dropped more than 7% from the October RSI peak (the bottom occurred at the end of January 2014). The smallest decline was seen in February of this year when the fund declined 1.63% over 22 trading days. A natural decline will occur in our current instance, the main question is how much? Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 1.63% over the next 25 trading days if not
AMEX:XLP
by StockSignaler
How much will overbought Consumer Cyclicals Sector Fall? XLYThe Consumer Cyclical Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. An internal and stronger bull trend has taken shape since the US elections in November 2016. However, this fund is currently at its long-term resistance point which will most likely lead to one of two future moves. The fund could break above this long-term resistance and continue strong gains, or it could reverse course and at the very least return to its support established since the election. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip will it continue its overall bull trend. When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 70.8987. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is below overbought levels. The fund could rise over the next few days or begin its descent now. The three previous overbought levels are annotated with the vertical blue line on the chart above. The drop from this overbought level occurred on all occasions, but the near-term drop in February was minimal. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 17.4983. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has been stuck in a positive but limited channel since December 2016. This indicator has begun to move up again. Although this is a delayed indicator, it may point to upward movement for the fund. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1761 and the negative is at 0.7501. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been slow moving but currently show the fund moving up. The stochastic oscillator K value is 97.0441 and D value is 94.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently well overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for a few more days before ultimately turning downward. All similar stochastic overbought levels since the election are annotated on the chart above with a vertical orange line. All seven instances lead to a drop in the fund. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 2% over the next 25 trading days if not sooner.
AMEX:XLYShort
by StockSignaler
How much will overbought Materials Sector Fall? XLBThe Materials Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. The trend has narrowed but remains upright since December 2016. The fund has been in a more specific trend channel since February and has created firm support and resistance levels. The fund is currently at that resistance level. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip will it continue its overall bull trend. When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 64.9868. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is below overbought levels, however, the RSI has developed a resistance point of its own. The RSI has been reaching lower highs since December 2016 and is once again at this key resistance point. If the RSI begins to retreat, the fund should follow suit. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 4.4168. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. Like the RSI, the TSI has created relative resistance since December. This indicator is about to hit that threshold. Failure to substantially break above this resistance, the fund should drop in the near-term. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1174 and the negative is at 0.7410. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators have been in a relatively tight trend since mid-February. When the positive VI was last at its current level, the fund tapered down which ultimately led to a drop to the fund's support line (dotted pinkish-purple on the chart). The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.2124 and D value is 87.3198. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic currently overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for a few more days before ultimately turning downward. The last three times the fund hit its resistance, it did manage to drop down to its support level in less than 12 days. The first drop was in January over 9 trading days and it resulted in a 3.62% decline. March saw a 3.41% decline over then following 6 trading days while April had a 2.91% drop over 11 days. These timeframes and declines could be blueprints for the current bounce off of the resistance level. Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 2% over the next 23 trading days if not sooner.
AMEX:XLBShort
by StockSignaler
Everything Energy Is Down, XOPThe SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Fund has been in a defined bearish trend for all of 2017. Due to this bearish movement, the 100 day moving average (DMA) is about to cross below the 150 DMA. This actual event has occurred 6 times in the history of the fund and has resulted in a minimal drop of 1.541%. It has a median drop of 6.918% and maximum drop of 25.563% over the following 22 trading days. Although I typically write on events that have occurred, this event is likely and greater benefit could be gained by making moves earlier. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 43.0611. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund has been moving lower. The RSI has been trending lower since May 2016. Even though the RSI typically cycles between overbought and oversold levels, that has not necessarily been the case with this fund. Overall the RSI is failing to make newer highs which is another significant signal of downward movement. This overall downtrend should continue as long as the RSI stays below this trendline. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -16.2542. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund is trending down. Similar to the RSI, it is been trending down and failing to make new highs since May 2016. However, one new high was achieved near the end of 2017, before falling back into the downtrend. This overall downtrend should continue as long as the TSI stays below this trendline. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8265 and the negative is at 1.0848. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund slightly moving up recently, but should begin its downtrend again. The stochastic oscillator K value is 22.6852 and D value is 16.1343. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the fund has been flirting with oversold territory for at least two weeks. Most likely one of two things will occur. The fund will continue to slowly move down with up days causing the stochastic to stabilize and rise even though the fund continues its downward bias. The second possibility would have the fund rise up and out of the downtrend either temporarily or permanently. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 4.7% over the next 32 trading days.
AMEX:XOPShort
by StockSignaler
Low Energy In Energy SectorThe Energy Sector SPDR Fund XLE has been in a defined bearish trend for all of 2017. Due to this bearish movement, the 100 day moving average (DMA) is about to cross below the 150 DMA. This actual event has occurred 15 times in the history of the fund and has a minimal drop of 0.263%. It has a median drop of 2.067% and maximum drop of 38.054% over the following 16 trading days. Although I typically write on events that have occurred, this event is likely and greater benefit could be gained by making moves earlier. When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 40.2699. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the fund has been moving lower. The RSI has been trending lower since May 2016. Even though the RSI typically cycles between overbought and oversold levels, that has not necessarily been the case with this fund. Overall the RSI is failing to make newer highs which is another significant signal of downward movement. Only once over the past year has the RSI broke above this trend before immediately following suit and heading down. This overall downtrend should continue as long as the RSI stays below this trendline. The true strength index (TSI) is currently -19.3683. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund is down. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7572 and the negative is at 1.0678. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the fund slightly moving up recently, but should begin its downtrend again. The stochastic oscillator K value is 21.2870 and D value is 19.7285. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the fund has been flirting with oversold territory for at least two weeks. Most likely one of two things will occur. The fund will continue to slowly move down with up days causing the stochastic to stabilize and rise even though the fund continues its downward bias. The second possibility would have the fund rise up and out of the downtrend either temporarily or permanently. Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3% over the next 26 trading days.
AMEX:XLEShort
by StockSignaler