Energy ready for prime-time?An updated view
Pattern taken from reverse symmetry.
Elliott Waves
Stochastic RSI Oscillators
The 12 Month oscillator pushes everything upwards. Since the 3M oscillator is at it's top, we expect a short drop until mid 2023. It will be short because of the effect of the 1M oscillator as well as the 12M one.
Oscillators tell us that it is probable for price of energy to drop until Q2 of 2023 and then begin it's rally. Energy could very well increase now. The ABC Elliott wave shown on the main chart is alarming.
An alternate scenario is this.
A 5-step Elliott wave.
Either of them could play out.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
SPGSCI
Energy holding onThe DXY normalization is far too good. Make good use of it, and make improvements on it, as you must. The accuracy, in even such long timeframes, is incredible. For the retracements, the magnet tool was used, and the retracement is in fib scale. Therefore nothing was placed by chance.
Also look at the short-term accuracy.
Look at the standard SPGSCI. It is lying a little.
I have to admit that on the standard chart of SPGSCI, the 2.618 retracement from 1990 to 1998, points at almost the precise top of 2008.
So I guess when the standard retracements don't work, transform them. Or perhaps the recent extreme change in dollar value justifies normalization.
The point is: the standard price of SPGSCI, as well as USOIL and other commodities, make sense when talking about the US economy. The 2008 peak in oil was not a worldwide energy crisis.
The balance changes now, when the price of commodities are defined from the worldwide economy strength. With China now being a substantial energy user, not just the US.
The DXY transformation just takes into account an average world currency price. An imaginary "world currency" (coming soon in your favorite color)
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
SP500 short, SPGSCI long, macro viewThe Chart shows that the SPX hast been growing faster than the GDP, and in comparison, the SPGSCI underperformed (all in % of SPXs growth).
My thesis ist, that the SPGSCI will outperform the SPX in this decade.
Background: The SPX should not grow way faster than the GDP. Demand for commodities ist raising.
Commodity Index (SPGSCI) Global view DWe are approaching to the major resistance made by 3M timeframe.
However wave (a) of last (abc) pattern is ongoing so far. In this respect, I am awaiting SHARP wave (b) in the form of “Change in behavior” and then last move (c)(z)(C){a} prior to deep correction within M timeframe