"Facebook Can't Go Lower" Part 3Back in February Facebook/Meta NASDAQ:FB dropped over -20% on earnings. This was crazy for such a big profile, mega-cap company and many investors though (and said) "Facebook can't possibly go lower" and used this justification to buy right on the drop. From a technical standpoint that drop blew past support and with so many people saying "Facebook can't go lower" my trader senses told me one thing... it WILL go lower. That is why I made that line into a meme at the time.
Now, after many new lows and 68 days of trading after the dump a technical setup has formed that I actually like. I don't know the future but at this point you have a defined bullish trend of buying to key off that has pulled back to a 50% Retracement. From this price action a trader can size their position and risk accordingly. This is something that was NOT possible if someone just bought on the dump alone.
It was entirely possible that Facebook could have gone lower and lower. Fortunately and unfortunately it did not. Fortunately, as many investors are surely glad. Unfortunately, because returning to breakeven and then profit fails to leave the impression on those that jumped the trade without patience.
The Lesson here is simple: Wait for price action to provide a setup. Even if it takes months.
Spike-trading
JAR SPIKE CATCHER 101Jarvis is once again over the load-zone. the recent volume since the violation of R1 is an indication of bulls in power for a move to the following targets.
Previously...
Palantir pullbackPalantir NYSE:PLTR has performed a pullback from the recent rally. This came to my attention from a spike alert and it is happening at a 50% Retracement. This is a followup to my initial entry on March 15, 2022 when no one was talking about Palantir stock anymore (see below). This time in addition to the options position is purchased shares to hold for the long run.
Solana Spike at SupportToday on social media I was asked "what cryptocurrencies can be used to mint NFTs other than Ethereum". Solana is the second most popular.
I was checking Solana BITFINEX:SOLUSD on the daily and I do see a spike trade setup on that timeframe. I wondered why it did not fire in alerts and it is because the ATR Clearance is below the threshold (70%) so it is not one I would trade by my qualification rules. SOLUSD spike is happening at what looks like a support for now. The good reward/risk trade was long from 86.27. If it breaks the stop level... that's bad... so you know where you're wrong and price could fall into the uncanny valley of risk .
Solana at Resistance/TargetFollowup to my post from early March with the spike trade. BITFINEX:SOLUSD has hit the primary target of the spike trade from the bottom of the consolidation which is also at a Resistance. This would be a good time to take off risk. The next Resistance I would be watching is 167 which is the 50% Retracement of the bearish trend of the last few months.
No One Looking at PALANTIR - Google Buyout coming?True opportunity comes with NO ONE IS LOOKING! Once market participants have written off an instrument as a bad investment... that tends to be the bottom.
Palantir NYSE:PLTR has mostly fallen off the radar of most traders and investors as most that bought it in 2021 during the SPAC craze are underwater. There have now been some interesting developments with Palantir specifically with a Google Artificial Intelligence entering into a partnership with Palantir.
The best advertisement is a rising price. You can be sure if Palantir stock recaptures $20/share the media will look back and point at these events as the "reason." The OPPORTUNITY was really on March 15th and I posted my trade then. This video shows what true technical analysis opportunity looks like and why investors need to leverage trading skills to find the best entries for long term investment opportunities.
The Nasdaq just did THIS - Pullback ComingThe stock market rally is stalling out today and the Nasdaq has hit a key Resistance. Does this mean the end of the recent rally? Is the market heading for a crash? I'm going to look objectively at price action and the VIX to explain my thesis as to why a new All Time High for 2022 is likely.
Twitter ToppingCatching up on alerts from Friday last week when NYSE:TWTR signaled a spike. I like a stop loss above the recent short term consolidation with a bearish trade back down to the rally's 50% Retracement Level. Earnings are 4/28/22 and IV has returned to normal. I like either a short shares trade or a long Put to play this rally ending and price retracing to 36 over the next few weeks.
Market at KEY Resistance TodayThere are signs the recent rally may be stalling. The S&P 500 Index (measured by futures CME_MINI:ES1! ) has retraced to the 50% of the ATH down to the 2/24/22 Ukraine invasion low. This morning there was a spike on the open to give confidence that this is in fact a resistance (see below).
Sentiment wise I am taking these price action signals as confirmation this is Resistance. This price action sets up a short trade with a stop loss above this morning's high and a target at the 50% of the recent rally to around 4300.
It is well within the character of the market over the last 3 months that it could come back to retest the FOMC levels.
Palantir at Last SupportI have been watching Palantir closely since the February 24, 2022 spike low. NYSE:PLTR was a darling of 2021 but has fallen victim to the "Pandemic Round Trip" like many stocks. The $10 psychological level has so far held with afore mentioned spike and today there was short term price action (see below) above $10 that may confirm a low risk entry.
I have decided to take this trade for the long term with far out January 2024 $30 Strike Calls. If this is a long term bet then I should use my imagination.
Bitcoin Bullish Breakout SetupOvernight there was a volatility quake in all cryptocurrencies that I have yet to explain. What this price action did though is setup a breakout level above the high of that spike. On the swing timeframes (hourlies) this is potentially setting up a trend change inside the recent consolidation. This could be the opportunity to breakout from the range to the upside.
Long AMD off Inflection and Intraday SetupThis morning several tech stocks including AMD, NVDA, and ETSY which I have on my Spike Alerts setup a short term, 30 minute timeframe, spike right at the 1/24 and 2/24 lows. This sets up an opportunity for a low risk entry for a long term hold on either of these three stocks. AMD NASDAQ:AMD is my pick of the three because I have no current positions. See below for the 30 minute setup...
Would you buy garbage (WM)?Waste Management NYSE:WM is one of my favorite stocks because I was once asked, when I said I was a professional technical trader, "if the price of garbage was going up, you would buy it?" To which I replied, "yes, I own Waste Management"
This morning I received a volatility spike alert which is happening at a major 50% Retracement.
Added to my position that began back in March of 2020 when the world was ending.
Litecoin at Support with breakout short signalLitecoin COINBASE:LTCUSD pegged the 108.82 support level which it has consolidated above for a few days. This snap back off the level shows confirmation that it is a support but also sets up a clear breakdown entry level. With crypto having a bearish few days and the Bitcoin short being live the sentiment is bearish. Breaking this level would trigger a short opportunity.