Spike
Better Profit Taking Inside ConsolidationsMy last trade in UNH highlights an example of where I look for targets especially within a mid consolidation. When looking at a past high as a potential take profit target often times price will miss the actual proper high. The more conservative and higher probability place to take targets (or look for reversal) is the 50% within the reaction off the last high: the short term price action where price fooled around to create the high. -UNH
Ethereum setting up breakout shortThe 60 minute chart of BITFINEX:ETHUSD created a support here around 3150 in the middle of a rising consolidation. Breaking the spike low would break the support, break the lower bounds of the flag pattern, and confirm an Ichimoku cloud breakout. These are three ways using different indications to identify a potential breakout.
I dislike when charts get too cluttered but at the cost of having a very busy chart I wanted to demonstrate the methods in a single idea. Choose a method or indicator that makes sense to you as a trader and then study it to mastery.
PGNY at 50%NASDAQ:PGNY is a stock that I have been in for over a year. It is a rare case where I have a fundamental bias (rather than technical to start) as a friend clued me into it June 2020. The fundamental case for this company is that they offer fertility services and their "moat" is that already have many deals with Fortune 500 companies that offer fertility packages in compensation to workers to delay parenthood in favor of careers. With the research showing that the trend is continuing that women are delaying family in favor of career I believe this company is a strong hold for the coming decade.
It is now providing a technical setup with a short term risk defined entry. I have been waiting for such an opportunity after watching the last year's run.
Hedging with short JPMWhen the market reached a (new) All Time High earlier today I wanted to get some short Delta in my positions. I learned my lesson during the 'recent unpleasantness' bottom of 7/19 that being all net long puts one at risk of volatility in a portfolio... even if the positions themselves individually remain strong and profitable.
This morning's volatility setup a good short entry on NYSE:JPM that by looking at futures this evening should hedge against tomorrow's potential downside.
Hedging with short DVNWhen the market reached a (new) All Time High earlier today I wanted to get some short Delta in my positions. I learned my lesson during the 'recent unpleasantness' bottom of 7/19 that being all net long puts one at risk of volatility in a portfolio... even if the positions themselves individually remain strong and profitable.
This morning's volatility setup a good short entry on NYSE:DVN that by looking at futures this evening should hedge against tomorrow's potential downside.
Earnings are close so I may need to de-risk next week before.
UBER Price Action AnalysisI was looking at a trade today for a member of my social media. NYSE:UBER looks to have stalled at 52.35 which is right at the 50% Retracement of the recent down move. This if following a retracement of the last bull trend which was around the same zone as the IPO first weeks' price action highs. Price could in the short term retrace down to retest the 5/10/21 low but would remain bullish as long as that low holds. Breaking the 6/28/21 high would be a sign of a bullish breakout.
DPW could spike to $15When the yellow lines converter with the uptrend, with some news around earnings it spiked before: the lines are now coming together again around upcoming earnings.
Looking for a technical spike after the long squeeze, on high volume, after it goes above the 50DMA.Historically it did this before multiple times.
Also there's a gap above 15.16 so it could gap up to 23.44, and with very high volume even higher.
Basically PT is 10.94-15.16
Should be scanning ETFsCome Monday going to look at a position in XBI (if it has not gone too far). Pulled back and spiked at the Weekly 50% Retracement that matches with prior price action. Stop needs to be just below the low of May 11th.
The industry for this ETF is Biotech. This should make Cathie Wood happy.
Gap before EarningsNYSE:GPS fired off a bullish signal this morning at a support level that fit my rules for a long trade entry. I'll be watching this closely through the week as the stock has Earnings on 5/27 which can be a maker or breaker of a great trade.
SPY Sentiment Signal BearishEvery day I scan the market for individual stocks within the S&P 500 index AMEX:SPY for short term volatility either bullish or bearish. I have begun compiling these signals into a derivative indicator. This morning's score was a -11. The last time the indicator signaled -11.20 was on 4/16/2021 which preceded a few days of downside in the market. This morning's price action made a slight try to get up and test the All Time High but seems to be failing. The first part of the day's down move has retraced to the 50% Retracement level of the day. It is worth taking a short here to test my signal, play the day's price action, and benefit from an asymmetric reward/risk. A failure to retest the last ATH could have much downside.
Autozone Post EarningsNYSE:AZO triggered a spike alert this morning on earnings announcement. Price action is at a support and worth a buy to play back to the top of the range and beyond.
As an aside, used car prices have increased dramatically in the last few months due to the shortage of new car inventory coming to market. Some of this is due to material costs and companies like Ford NYSE:F have been reported to be having backlog due to computer chip shortages. These market forces are compounded by inflation.
Vix could have one last spikeThe VIX could have one last spike left in it before it settles down for this secular bull market run. When it settles down it should settle below the '20s but until then a potential catalyst for another spike could be the June 10th CPI release or if a member of the Fed mentions tapering. If numbers come in hotter than expected again, there could be a frantic sell-off accompanied by a spike in the fear index as people worry it is non-transitory.
I am still overall bullish on the market since we are in a secular bull market but corrections are normal, healthy, and necessary in order for the market to take the next leg higher. BMO came out with a year-end target on the S&P of 4500. Some projections show that inflation could run hot for 6 months, which would be transitory. As for the damage it could do to the underlying economy, that is unknown. As for equity, stocks are a natural inflation hedge.