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November 22 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $3,580 Balance-Area Boundary, $3,506.25 Excess Low. Technical: After an initiative upside drive on news that another COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine developed by Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) was 94.5% effective, U.S. index futures pared gains as participants struggled to maintain higher prices, evidenced by the non-presence of committed buying and low-excess at the edges of balance. Given that Friday’s session failed to negate Wednesday’s spike liquidation by moving back into the micro-composite high-volume node at $3,557, the fairest price to do business during the prior week’s balancing activity, initiative sellers remain in control. As a result, knowing that prior end-of-day spikes were the result of weak-handed, short-term buyers liquidating in panic, the selling moved prices away from value and didn’t attract increased participation, and Friday was a monthly options expiry, traders can carry forward the following framework. If the auction remains in or below the prior selling activity, then initiative sellers remain in control and the liquidation could be the start of a new trend lower, confirmed by trade beyond the $3,506.25 excess low. Otherwise, there is the potential for a failed break-down in which participants rotate back over the $3,580 balance boundary. Fundamental: In a commentary, BlackRock discussed the staying power of growth stocks after the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. We believe this year brought a sort of forced adoption necessary for future business survival, a dynamic likely to continue for companies that want to be competitive in a post-COVID world. That means demand could continue to edge higher for providers of these products and services. One example: Many consumers swapped gym memberships for connected home fitness equipment. The initial demand spike may recede, but many of these consumers will be multi-year subscription payers and likely to become more firmly entrenched in an ecosystem of products offered by a certain company. Simply put, BlackRock suggests trends supercharged during the pandemic have been in place for years, providing them staying power. The COVID-19 acceleration liquidated the market of those businesses not equipped to survive disruption, thereby allowing those that remain greater market share. Key Events: Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash, Fed Daly Speech, Fed Evans Speech. Tuesday: House Price Index MoM, CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Bullard Speech, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Clarida Speech. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Good Orders MoM, GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 Est, Corporate Profits QoQ Prel, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM, GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est, Goods Trade Balance Adv, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Prices QoQ 2 Est, Core PCE Price Index YoY, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, PCE Price Index YoY, Core PCE Price Index MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final, New Home Sales MoM, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes. Recent News: The gap between vaccine hopes and pandemic reality poses market hazard. reut.rs Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) files COVID-19 vaccine application to the U.S. FDA. reut.rs Fannie, Freddie regulator looks to end government control before Trump exits. reut.rs EM looks to 2021 as Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) adds bullish calls. bloom.bg The second lockdown weakened U.K.’s growth and fiscal outlook materially. bit.ly The EU digital chief, tech giants call on new rules rescheduled to December 2. reut.rs G20 leaders have pledged to fund the fair distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. reut.rs Recent FSB updates won’t change capital requirements for important banks. bit.ly New COVID-19 virus restrictions heighten downside risk for European banks. bit.ly Drop in associated gas production offers a lifeline for pure-play gas producers. bit.ly Technology startups are looking to raise more after the COVID-19 disruption. bit.ly World Reimagined: Nasdaq on what the new economy looks like post-COVID. bit.ly Consumers are looking at new ways to get health care, buy cars, eat and work. on.wsj.com How operating leverage may help to narrow yield spreads as COVID subsides. bit.ly If Democrats win the runoffs for GA’s two Senate seats, expect larger stimulus. bit.ly How a broader equity market rally would help enhance corporate credit quality. bit.ly The Fed chief suggests it is too soon to put away its emergency recovery tools. bloom.bg Options markets show risks over the next twelve months reduced considerably. bit.ly The third-quarter bullish earnings cycle should not be dismissed by the market. bloom.bg Key Metrics: Sentiment: 44.4% Bullish, 29.3% Neutral, 26.4% Bearish as of 11/18/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 2,325,158,176 as of 11/13/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 43.8% as of 11/20/2020. bit.ly Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
2
November 15 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Four-Day Balance, $3,580 Spike Base, $3,506.25 Excess Low, Friday’s Late Rally Away From Value. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week mixed with S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high. During Last Week’s Action: Alongside the unwind of election hedges and news that a vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTech SE (Nasdaq: BNTX) was effective in preventing cases of the COVID-19 coronavirus, market participants showed increased confidence in their exploration of higher prices. Going back, last week started off with a clear break and acceptance above the $3,500 high-volume area, which suggested initiative buyers were firmly in control. Index futures pared gains after Monday’s end-of-day spike liquidation, balancing for the remainder of the week. Given Friday’s end-of-day rally, away from value, the week ended just above the balance area, providing a clear trading framework for the week that follows. Therefore, if participants were to continue their initiative activity and spend time outside of the balance area, then it's likely the market will continue higher. Otherwise, the potential exists for a failed break, which may precede re-entry into the prior balance area, and further range-bound, responsive trade. Fundamental: In a commentary, BlackRock discussed investing after the U.S. election and suggested more of the same market trends. bit.ly “Joe Biden’s victory in the presidential race likely ushers in a near-term market environment dominated by low rates, a hunt for yield and growth stocks. A Democratic takeover of the Senate looks unlikely, which would constrain the Biden administration’s ability to implement large-scale fiscal stimulus and public investment, tax, healthcare and climate related legislation.” Additionally, BlackRock cautioned investors to pay attention to economic data from the euro area and U.S., as well as watch for the government’s response to the resurgence of COVID-19 coronavirus cases which may pressure the pending recovery. Key Events: Monday: Fed Clarida Speech, Fed Daly Speech. Tuesday: Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM and YoY, Business Inventories MoM, NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed Bostic Speech, Fed Daly Speech, Fed Williams Speech, Foreign Bond Investment, Overall Net Capital Flows. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Building Permits MoM, Housing Starts MoM, Fed Evans Speech, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Bullard Speech, Fed Bostic Speech. Thursday: Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Mester Speech, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, CB Leading Index MoM, Existing Home Sales MoM, Fed Mester Speech. Recent News: Negative 2021 outlook as pandemic fallout weighs on economies. bit.ly Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) COVID-19 vaccine data is credit positive. bit.ly Resurgent COVID-19 threatens corporate credit’s improved trend. bit.ly Eurozone consumer prices likely to slide for the month of October. bit.ly Joe Biden’s clean energy platform is very heavy on clean transport. bit.ly US banks’ tightening of underwriting standards slows, but remains. bit.ly IEA says oil demand will not get a vaccine boost until later in 2021. reut.rs Sour China-Australia ties hit talks over a liquefied natural gas deal. reut.rs Joe Biden’s path back to an Iran nuclear deal won’t be easy or fast. bloom.bg A COVID vaccine would boost the global economy, but not at once. on.wsj.com Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) delivers internet with light beam. bit.ly Monthly Funding Recap: Unicorns are born, funding holding steady. bit.ly The IPO pipeline looks robust and these companies could go public. bit.ly Dalio suggested markets are at a special moment with China's rise. bloom.bg Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE: WFC) executives charged by the SEC. reut.rs Ford Motor Co (NYSE: F) considers making its own EV batteries. reut.rs U.S. consumer sentiment ebbs; producer prices maintain their rise. reut.rs Insurers face questions on ability to cover claims after a Fed report. reut.rs Key Metrics: Sentiment: 55.8% Bullish, 19.3% Neutral, 24.9% Bearish as of 11/11/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 6,032,392,989 as of 11/13/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 43.1% as of 11/13/2020. bit.ly Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
SPY trade off the 50% retracement of the weekThis afternoon after 1pm in the "zombie hour" there was actually a great trade on AMEX:SPY . I missed it because I was at the gym when the signal came in but I wanted to make a video about it for my own posterity as to what makes a "GOOD TRADE!" What made it a good trade is that the reversal signal occurred right at the 50% retracement of this week's big price action from the High of Monday's open to the Low of Tuesday's open. So far it seems as of today Wednesday we bounced off that level and established a smaller range which I'll be watching. This is going to be compiled as an example of why I think looking for SIMPLE 50% retracement levels in price is one of the most powerful tools for finding Support/Resistance for profitable and high probability trade entries and exits.
AMEX:SPYShort
by norok
4
DisciplineNASDAQ:AKAM and NYSE:THO I took three weeks ago. I have checked my signals in thinkorswim every morning diligently at 10:00am. That's my job. I have not found a single trade that fit my rules to take bullish since September 17th! My two that I took on that date were NASDAQ:AKAM and NYSE:THO . AKAM and THO both pulled a 3:1 on 75% of my positions, AKAM's remainder I closed when it got below a key level, THO continues to run. Every day that I do not find an opportunity comes with a little bit of trepidation. "Is thinkorswim's scanner code broken this morning?" "Has the strategy lost some edge?" OR... "Is my strategy just performing as intended and keeping my trades long and short in sync with the market?" I like to believe the latter and based on the timing of the two longs I did take it did help me capture this last bullish run up to resistance on the AMEX:SPY and market as a whole. So I wait... and reserve my capital for OPPORTUNITY and FOLLOW MY RULES!
NASDAQ:AKAM
by norok
Loving Tradingview!Negotiated with the good folks at Tradingview to allow me all the alerts I need as part of my subscription package that I can now use the platform as a signal service to cover all the markets I want with my custom built indicator and system. I MISSED this alert on the first night I put this into place because I went to bed but it validates all my hard work in coding, backtesting, forward testing, and coding some more to make a trading system that is MY OWN! It's a new chapter in my Spike Trading strategy!
by norok
1
Global Social Chain (GSC/BTC on Huobi) 80%+ spike incoming?Some tokens on Huobi are very spiky. Predicting these spikes is incredibly hard, and something I'm working on long-term. But for now, I found an interesting pattern by eye on the GSC 3-day chart. Oversold conditions (you can't really call it a signal) stop just before the big spikes. In other words, the last 3 times out of 3, buying when the 3-day oversold signal disappears has been a highly assymetric risk (earlier in this token's history this correlation didn't work very well, I think because it took the trend measurements a while to adjust after the very quick 95% drop from ATH.) Will it be 4 for 4? I don't know, but I'll be in it to find out. Indicator used: Price Action Trend Overlay | Simple with default settings.
GLong
by SimpleCryptoLife
BTC/USD Neutral AnalysisA lot has changed since yesterday! We've managed to break through a few areas of historical resistance. The last (obvious) level of resistance to break is 9.6k. If we can break through that our next target should be around 10k. That being said, I'm willing to bet that there are quite a few long-term trapped traders (going long) at the 9.8k - 9.9k levels. If they are looking to break even when the price returns to that price point, they will be exiting their long positions, and will drive the price down a bit. I can't imagine that there are too many, but I do expect that we will have to deal with that. (very) Short term, I'm bullish up until 9.6k. At that point we will have to test it. Last time we tested it we ended up in a week long sideways trading period so I'm not entirely sure what we can expect to see there. There was a recent price spike that got us to 9.55k which is nice, but we're starting to lose volume. That leads me to believe that we will battle to get passed 9.6k. In all honesty I expect the price to bounce off of 9.6k and sit around 9.55k for a bit, but we'll have to wait and see.
by boring_reality
Market getting toppy? Lots of bearish signalsI primarily use TDAmeritrade's thinkorswim platform to trade and I am starting to notice that their intraday data integrity is far better than Tradingview. I use thinkorswim to generate my morning alerts for "spikes" and the bars in the platform are very different from TV. Regardless, the number of alerts this morning gives me a hint that the market is getting a bit toppy today. I had 2 Limit order profits hit and closed 2 other bullish trades manually. I went short AZO and ALL on signals. Here is this morning's list for posterity. This many data points should yield some statistics on the signal. AGN ALL AMGN ANTM AZO BDX BMY BR CDNS CPB KMX CME CMCSA GLW DHR DRI XRAY ETR FE FCX AJG JKHY HLT INTU IQV LVS LYV MKTX MMC MDLZ MCO MOS MSCI NDAQ PFE PPG PGR DGX ROST CRM SRE NOW STE SYK TMO TRV VRSK DIS XRX ZBH
NYSE:AZOShort
by norok
SPX Future Projection Analysis *Future spike detected*TVC:SPX What's happening on the May 1, 2020? Checking the United States Economic calendar. This is what I found that could be the cause of the increase volatility on that day: 1) Core Price PCE Index: Forecast is 1.7%, Previous was 1.8%...May drop further than anticipated. 2) Employment Cost Index: Forecast is 0.7%, Previous was 0.7%..."The Employment Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. " ...Will this be 0.8%+? I think so. 3) PCE Price Index..."The PCE price index, also referred to as the PCE deflator, is a United States-wide indicator of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency. 4) Personal Spending (Month to Month) Forecast is -6.5%, Previous was 0.2%...Maybe reading will show less than negative forecast. 5) Chicago PMI While these reading can flip the forecast; volatility will increase. So, for all Option holders, check your Vega. If you don't know what Vega is, don't do options until you understand the Greeks.
TVC:SPXLong
by investinfamily