$SPOT#SPOT
Spotify has been struggle for quite a long time now and many people are pretty bearish on Spotify but when everybody’s bearish what does that mean?
Spotify’s been on a downward spiral since it’s highs back in early February.
When we zoom out and look at the higher timeframe previous resistance is now currently holding as support which could give a good opportunity.
Keep your eyes open around these levels.
MACD sitting below -10
RSI below 50.
Watchlist this.
- Factor Four
Spotify
$SPOT TALooking at $SPOT we can see a descending wedge. A bullish pattern however we are just needing to confirm a breakout of trend. With the $AAPL news may be the catalyst it needs. In my personal opinion based off of RSI and TTM squeeze, I believe we will see a cool off of buyers before jumping into another run. All of this will be determined by $SPY. I believe we will see $SPY red/chop until Tuesday(9/14/21) before reversing off of daily trend respecting the ascending wedge. If $SPY runs red and we see a daily close on $SPOT below 245.50 I will play shorts, however, if we see green on $SPY and a hold above 245.50 we see green. A break and hold of 245.50 would be an early entrance a safer entrance for longs would be a break and hold of 255.50.
Would love to hear your opinion on this TA!
Spotify - Breaking Out of the Downtrend ChannelSpotify looking to finally break out of the 6-8 month long downtrend channel. Picked some up at $221 price range. May pick up more if we retest the channel lines for support level.
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SPOTIFY SHORT?Head And Shoulders Pattern (not confirmed)
At the moment we have the 400 SMA support and right below that the 220.56$ support line (neckline).
As long as we have no closed candle under the neckline we don’t need to worry about lower prices.
If we get a closed candle under the neckline we could have a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.
Direct Listings: An overview of opening day patternsOn 4/14/2021, Coinbase went public with the ticker NASDAQ:COIN . This was a pretty heavily-anticipated listing if for no other reason than that there aren't really any other crypto exchanges you can buy that are traded on a major US exchange. There are some OTC options, but when it comes to a symbol that trades on a US exchange this is a big milestone. Tons of people scrambled to buy into the listing right when it went live and ended up closing out the day reasonably red. Even people who are experienced traders jumped in and ended up closing out for a loss by the end of the day.
So what happened here? Why did the stock go down with so much hype, why are there so many insiders selling, and really what even is a direct listing?
What is a Direct Listing?
With a traditional IPO, a company works with an underwriter (typically a bank or large financial institution) to put together their initial stock offering. This usually involves a road show where the company's representatives will travel around drumming up investment from institutional investors prior to the stock going live. On IPO day, the underwriter facilitates the transfer of these pre-IPO shares to the institutional investors they snagged during the road show prior to the stock going live on secondary markets (where you, the retail investor can buy in). There is also a lockup period in an IPO that limits selling and hedging on the stock for specific holders until a set period of time has passed.
A direct listing is when the shareholders of a company decide to sell shares in the enterprise directly to secondary markets without the help of an underwriter. With a direct listing, none of the road show stuff happens and there's no real lockup period unless that's specifically negotiated internally at the company. The company sets a reference price for the stock and on listing day the stock is just listed straight to secondary markets.
With both a traditional IPO and direct listing, we're usually looking at around 10% of the company's stock being up for sale. With a traditional IPO, the underwriter often buy all the shares being offered directly from the issuer and then be responsible for selling those shares. With a direct listing, shareholders sell their shares to the market directly.
What happened with Coinbase?
What happened with the Coinbase direct listing isn't new or weird. It seems to happen more or less with every direct listing. I went back and got some charts for some of the big direct listings that have happened over the past year or so and it happens to varying degrees more or less every time.
Here's NYSE:RBLX :
Here's NYSE:PLTR :
Here's NYSE:SPOT :
Here's NYSE:WORK :
Out of all of these, Roblox fared the best the fastest after going live but still had the same end of day drop as Coinbase. Slack had the worst performance and didn't bottom out for months.
So it's a pretty common phenomenon that direct listing stocks are probably a bad idea to buy into on the first day they list. The question becomes why.
Market Mechanics and Direct Listings
As I've said, with a direct listing the shares are coming directly from existing internal shareholders of the company. So in a market, there needs to be a willing buyer and a willing seller. In this case, there is an avalanche of selling that happens when the stock goes live and this has the kind of impact you would expect from a roughly 10% selloff of internal shares in a company. It makes the stock go down. Once the stocks are out in the market, it's up to the market to decide what they're worth. That could be more or less than the reference price set before going live. However, this selling has to happen by the very nature of what a direct listing is and this (among other technical factors) is a giant part of the reason why direct listings often end up red on the days they go live on the market.
So when you see stuff in the news about insiders selling some insane number of shares on the day the company does a direct listing, take it with a grain of salt. Chances are substantial that it's really just the normal kind of selling that is necessitated by this type of stock listing. I'm not saying that you should trust the CEO of Coinbase blindly and assume he'd never do wrong. But even in a world where this wasn't how direct listings work, the amount of heat it would bring down on him to just liquidate his entire ownership stake in a company he just brought public in some kind of "offloading the bags" scheme would be extreme. The incentives aren't there.
Summary
Based on averages alone, even if you knew nothing about the market mechanics of direct listings, it doesn't appear to be a smart move to buy into a directly listed stock on the day it starts trading. There is too much downward selling pressure involved and all the price discovery starts on opening day so volatility is expected.
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Spotify Stock to Lose Half of its 2020 UptrendIs this a good time to join Spotify bulls? Let’s see how the situation looks like from an Elliott Wave perspective.
The daily chart above puts Spotify advance from its December 2018 low in Elliott Wave context. The chart reveals that the uptrend from the 2018 low at $103.66 is shaped as a complete five-wave impulse. The pattern is labeled 1-2-3-4-5, where the five sub-waves of wave 5 are also visible.
There is also a good alternation between the correction, wave 2 is a time-consuming flat pattern that completed during the coronavirus panic of 2020, and wave 4 is a sharp zigzag move. According to the theory, a three-wave correction follows every impulse.
The corrective phase of the Elliott Wave cycle typically erases the entire progress achieved by the fifth wave. Applying this to SPOT stock makes us expect a decline back to the support of wave 4 near $220 a share . If this count is correct, a ~43% drop from the top at $387 seems to have just begun. The double bearish RSI divergence between waves 3 and 5 also indicates the bulls are running out of steam
What's your view on Spotify Stock? Let me know in the comment section.
Thanks for reading!
Veejahbee.
Spotify Set To Rally 20% In The Shorter CycleHi Traders!
The chart above shows that the advance in Spotify from its September 2020 low has been taking the shape of the Elliot Wave five-wave impulse sequence, labeled (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v). The sub-waves of wave (iii) is also visible.
The price action follows the guideline of alternation quite well, wave (ii) is a sharp and deep correction and wave (iv) unfolded as a shallow and sideway corrective pattern.
If this count is correct, impulsive price action above $350.33 will signal wave (iv) is complete and $SPOT is heading higher in wave (v) to complete the impulse sequence. Targets above wave (iii) high and $400/share is plausible in the weeks ahead.
What's your view on $SPOT? Let me know in the comment.
Thanks for reading!
Veejahbee.
$SPOT - SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY 2HR - Finished a wave 4 and broke above the downtrend line on another leg up into W5 TZ.
- Nice move up hitting the 1.75% extension at the 1.272% and pausing.
- Having an inside day today, potentially get a flag to move higher into the 1.618 to 2.272% area for end of Wave 3.
- However Wave 3 like to terminate at 1.75%. But only price action will tell us.
Bullish flag: Example with SpotifyOne of the most commong chart patterns is the flag and it can be a bullish or a bearish depending on the direction it is formed. Usually they are trend - confirming patterns and are occuring after a strong impulse of buying or selling activity, some brief consolidation, and then the price continues in the same direction as the first impulse. The target of the pattern is the "handle" of the flag, meassured from the moment of breach. Sometimes the buying can continue agressively and the price may reach higher than the initial target zone. Traders though interpret differently the target level in regards to the meassurement of the handle. The stop loss is usually placed below the configuration itself, not the handle. That of course can be adjussted by everyone's personal view and risk management. The decision to enter may vary. The first entry can be aggressive with a sell or buy limit near the pattern. Order can be executed after the breach and on the next open, or you can wait out for a correction back to the figure. We say that the flag is complete and confirmed when the initial target level is reached.
In the example we see current development of a bullish flag in Spotify. The breach here was minimal and not that convicning, but the next open was strong and with a gap. Yesterday's close is a classic correction of the initial impulse of 40% to 50% of the candle.
Update on Spotify: bullish flag triggered Buyers were able to pinch trough the flag's resistance level and thus trigger the formation.
Two scenarios in this case may follow:
1. Price tests again the figure and continues it's way up;
2. Price aggressively starts to rise and complete the flag fast with big volumes;