CENX Broke 8.00 Price target 8.50 based on 1yr trendsIn both March and April of 2016, CENX has hit the 8.00 mark to later jump to 8.50 within 2 week's time. It is my estimate -based on these previous rallies and the upward momentum as of late that it will once again rally to this 8.50 price point. Be aware that I take this to be a short-term trade as within 1-2 week's time I expect it to fall at or below a 7.00 support price by August 31, 2016.
Spread
GBPUSD Weak as my grandmother. 1. Supply coming in: up bar wide spread with high-ultra high volume closing off the highs of the bar follow by a down bar that confirms this weakness (2).
3. No demand bar: up bar with average-wide spread closing off the highs with less volume than the previous 3 bars, this signal needs to be confirmed with a down bar.
4. Trap up move: down bar with super wide spread, clossing off the lows with high volume, may some demand enter in this bar, but you will know it if the next bar closes high.
5. Gotcha bar: down bar with ultra wide spread, closing at the lows or near the lows of the bar with ultra high volume, this bar confirms the weakness of the previous bar, and, confirm the weakness of the sequencial of 1 and 3 signals.
6. Stopping volume: up bar closin at the highs or near the highs with high-ultra high volume, this bar confirms that may there is some demand in the previous bar, but you need confirmation.
7. Supply coming in: down bar closing on the lows of the bar, with high volume. This bar says: if there is some demand in the previous bar, why i close at the lows? because the market is weak.
8-9. Test's: down bars with average-narrow spread closing at the lows-near the lows with volume less than the previous 5 bars. The second test is seeing after a gap so if it confirms, may we have some demand in the market. (The next bar is up but with low volume, so, the tests doesnt confirm).
10. Up-thrust. Down bar that is marked up at the beginning of the bar to close down, average-wide spread with average volume, this confirms the weakness of the failed test (9).
11. Up-thrust (my favorite in this chart). Down bar that is marked up at the beginning of the bar to close down, average-wide spread with average volume, this bar confirms that the market even in over-sold state, will not go up because there is weakness. This signal is seen in a zone of previous weakness (signals 5, 8-9, 10) so you can assume that the market will not go up until demand in form of test's or no supply-shake out take place.
12. Bottoms reversal. Down bar, ultra high-volume, wide spread closing at or near the lows followed by a up bar wide spread closing at or near the highs confirms demand in the previous bar (the down bar). This signal need confirmation (up bar with average-high volume) but how can see, the next bar is a narrow spread bar with volume less than the previous 5-6 bars.
13. Test. down bars with average-narrow spread closing at the lows-near the lows with volume less than the previous 2 bars.
14. Potentional climatic action or gotcha bar. Down bar with wide spread closing at the lows with ultra high volume. This bar take place and closes lower than all of the bar seen before it. So you can assume that if the next bar is down, this bar shows that smart money is selling.
To take a short trade: wait until the next bar closes, if this closes down (for the time of now, the bar looks like a up-thrust, that is a signal to go short) and it breaks the support line of the previous bar, you can scalp or trade in this timeframe to the short side.
I prefer to scalp the market when i see a up thrust, no demand, supply coming in after the breakout of the support line.
This methodology is purely VSA. Sorry for my bad english, im'not a native speaker.
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KC shortUpdate on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance
On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal.
I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady.
Warehouse stocks in EU and US plenty as well.
Dont get me wrong, as shown in the blue channel, even if we have a correction lower, the blue trend channel might indicate a change in trend, however the frost damage is simply not there and in order to rally, this market would need breaking news like that.... without anything of that sort coming out, I see a correction lower before making new highs.
Still, knowing coffee, I remain short with 1x2 calendar spreads, buying the downside 1 leg in one month and selling 2 lower puts in a month further back.
No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago.
Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days).
I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits.
Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month.
Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action.
Support at 134, then nothing until 125
Rising wedge, but for now running into supportAs we see some support is coming in from our longer term trend channel as well as the lower Bbands.
So far the last three weeks have provided with the expected sideways action once reaching 50.
Selling calls has been the right strategy so far (51, 52 and 53 calls).
At this support I am covering my short calls, but will hold of selling any put spreads to see how the FOMC decision plays out. I would not be surprised to see no rate hike and crude test some downside targets.
For now, neutral, but getting ready to sell some downside put spreads once we breach the support (if we do)
SPY, Short @ $211 w/ Call Credit Spread Still anticipating ranging markets. Opened a couple Bear/Credit Call Spread at $211/$216. I'm using a $5 spread because the R/R is better than $10 spread.
Credit = $2.25 (net $2.14)
Break even = $213.14
August Expiration*
* I likely will not hold on till expiration. I would use a SPY price drop to take profits and remove the risk.
Generated buy/cover signals on RSI StochastikGold bounced off of the support area for now
Light volume during recent bounce indicates this is a retracement in the downtrend
--> I threw in some Fibs to indicate where overhead resistance lies.
Resistance at:
- 7 day MA (currently there); a break would suggest the 20 day MA or the 38% FIb as target (1240ish)
- 23% Fib at 1224, 38% Fib at 1240
Overall: the lack of volume on the bounce indicates the lows might be tested again as the downtrend is still prevailing.
Took advantage of the break the last 5 days, but covering my short puts now
I dont have any sells signals yet, hence I am not doing anything until I see some
Change buy from neutral as strong support was found on trendlinePro Long:
- Trend line provided massive support (dark red line)
- High volume at support and during the rally
- future spreads very strong (N16-U16 turned into backwardation)
- If we close positive today 7 MA will cross 20 MA generating buy signal
Contra Long:
- running into resistance on middle Bollinger Band (20 day MA)
I sold the 2900 puts last week as a sideways prediction was put in place and will keep that position and add once I see a pull back into the lower trend line
Still waiting, beware bulls; risk reward not so greatPro Long (Chart):
- RSI and Stochastik created buy signal
- Orange support line
Pro Long (Physical):
- ICE warehouse stocks new lows
- spreads tightening ever so slightly
Contra (Chart):
- still in middle to upper end of trend channel
- room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band
- long term trend still down
- risk/reward for long position not there
IMHO I start looking into selling put spreads out in August or September. For example the U16 110/100 p spread.
Due to the negative put skew, 1x2s also work great IMHO (selling the one buying the 2s are also an interesting idea).
GBP/USD Time to BUYEvery time we get a new Brexit poll report or see another Euro based calendar event we are seeing large scale negative response on the GBP. HOWEVER, the overall direction on the larger trend is clearly for LONG and right now we are massively oversold.
Go Long, hold and earn big!
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GBP/USD Short Medium and Long termSo with the Uk referendum looming there are many theories on the future direction of the GBP/USD asset.
We are expecting an astronomical price surge and recovery once we skip over the pesky 23/06/16 calendar date.....
Buy large, hold long and get rich :) Come and see how we can apply this and more to our daily binary trading signals. Simple profit, daily results.
WTI calendar spread looking at chart you can see the spread in the oil front to back contracts displayed is normally closer to 0, currently the spread is around -3. So the idea is to buy the front month CL contract and sell the Z contract.
This also can be done with short options adding a decay component, contact me if you like further details on the option trade
Pair Trade - Short CNQ and Long XLEThis is a pair trade idea based on CNQ/XLE pair cointegration. My calculations show that these two stocks diverged by more than 2 standard deviation and, based on mean reversion, should come back to mean. This pair's rolling mean is 28.3 over the last 280 trading sessions. The current value is 23.6 and one standard deviation is 1.8. The trad can be done by shorting CNQ and going long XLE in the proportion calculated through beta. Alternatively, it can be entered as two credit spreads - bear call spread on CNQ and bull put spread on XLE. This is how I will be entering this trade on Monday when the market opens - $CNQ $22/$24 Feb 21 bear call spread for $0.5 cr and $XLE $57/$55 Feb 21 bear put spread for $0.6 cr. Will be watching the bear call side and adjust if necessary.
ITALY vs GERMANY - SPREAD AT THE HIGHEST EVER - STOCKS... "when they tell you that the Spread with Germany is at its lowest ever not believe... this is the only one that is important"...
01/01/2002 - 01/08/2009 : Spread vs DAX FTSE MIB lows . Divergence contained
01/08/2009 - 01/12/2014: BOOM BREAKS Spread between DAX and FTSE MIB . After 2000 days DAX " Overperforming " FTSE MIB approximately 130% since 2002 ( euro entry)
01/12/2014 - 13/04/2015: Stocks "fee" the ECB QE . Spread vs DAX FTSE MIB at the highest ever. DAX " Overperforming " FTSE MIB 167% since 2002 ( euro entry)
EURO IS GERMAN RULES