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Equities Set To Outperform Rickety Real EstateInvestment wisdom states that “the only bad time to buy real estate is later.” Every rule though, has its exceptions. Current US real estate is clearly in exception territory given recessionary fears, high mortgage rates, and dim fundamentals. Real estate sector is the largest store of wealth. It is also the source of significant job creation. Crisis in this sector has massive adverse consequences. Hence, policy makers typically leave no stone unturned in defending the sector. Despite the headwinds, new data released last week show rising mortgage applications on softening rates and real estate prices. This collectively makes an outright short position perilous. Instead, this case study argues that a measured approach would be a spread with a long position in S&P 500 Index combined with a short position in S&P Real Estate Select Sector index. An entry at 20.611 with a target at 22.119 supported by a stop loss at 19.749 will deliver a compelling 1.75 reward to risk ratio with ample upside and limited downside. INTEREST RATES INVERSELY AFFECT ASSET VALUES The value of a financial asset is the cumulative discounted value of all future cash flows. Higher the discounting rate, lower the value. Persistent and sticky inflation is compelling the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer. High mortgage rates are forcing out first time buyers while squeezing leveraged asset owners. Future rents discounted to present value is sharply lower relative to a period when federal funds rate was near zero. With the US Federal Reserve having hiked interest rates by 4.5% in 2022, mortgage rates have doubled in the same period, touching a 20-year high of 6.2%. This has made real estate investments less attractive. With no rate reversals in sight, mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated despite recent softening. Mortgage rates are down a full percentage point from recent peak but still double what they were a year ago. Absent a sector specific relief, real estate stocks will underperform relative to the broader S&P 500 index. Since 2017, this ratio of the S&P 500 index to the Real Estate Select Sector has risen by a stunning 54% over the last 6 years. WEAKENING US HOUSING MARKET After peaking in July 2020, new home sales in the US have trended 37% lower and down to pre-pandemic levels. Existing home sales exhibit similar trend, which have fallen for eleven (11) straight months, point to a frail US housing market. New data released last week point to rise in mortgage demand as rates soften and real estate prices ease. DISTRESSED DEBT IN REAL ESTATE & RISING REDEMPTIONS FROM PROPERTY FUNDS Global property market faces $175 billion of distressed debt. As rates rise, rising financing costs will force leveraged owners to foreclose at fire sale prices. Abrupt stop to years of easy money supply has sent shock waves to the sector. Compounded by a pandemic that has changed the way people work and live, commercial real estate owners are in a precarious place. This predicament is showing up in property funds facing rising redemptions. US-based investment manager - KKR - has imposed limits on redemption from its $1.5 billion KKR Real Estate Select Trust fund (KREST). KKR's cap on redemption echoes a move by Blackstone which announced in December that it would limit investor withdrawals from its $69 billion private real estate fund (BREIT). Starwood Capital also placed caps on redemptions late last year. Investors are hankering for redemption as fears of price correction stemming from high mortgage costs, persistent inflation and an uncertain economy amplified by recessionary gloom. GLOOMY REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK The sector is pessimistic about current and future home sales as evident from NAHB’s Housing Market Index. Over the past six months, new building permits have collapsed drastically as participants see lower demand for new homes. Vindicating these fears are a sharp drop in new building permits which are down 30%. Home order cancellations are also on the rise sharply. With all the impact combined, a rise in unsold inventory hit the markets, with marginal & first time home-buyers priced out of the market due to expensive mortgage rates. The US Federal Reserve is determined to tame inflation down to 2% even at the expense of hurting labor market. Should that occur, a soft labor market reduces appetite for expensive mortgage payments. That would set a real estate contagion in motion, pushing property prices even lower. TECHNICALS POINT TO BOUYANT S&P 500 AND SHAKY REAL ESTATE SELECT SECTOR Since bottoming in November 2022, the S&P 500 Index has rallied 11% as it faces resistance at its long term (200-day) moving average. The S&P 500 Index is trading below its point of control. In contrast, the S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector index points being overbought based on RSI and is yet to reach its long-term moving average. The index is trading above its point of control making it wobbly and prone to downward correction. TRADE SETUP Spread trade requires that the notional value of a long leg is equivalent to the short leg of the trade. Therefore, five (5) lots of long position in CME E-Mini Micro S&P 500 Futures expiring in March 2023 requires two (2) lots of short position in CME E-Mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures in March 2023. CME offers margin credits for spread trades. Clearing brokers might charge differently from the Exchange imposed margins. CME E-Mini Micro S&P 500 Futures (5 lots): 5 x USD 5 x S&P 500 Index = 5 x 5 x 4015.25 = ~$100,381 CME E-Mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures (2 lots): 2 x USD 250 x S&P 500 Real Estate Select Sector Index = 2 x 250 x 194.65 = ~$97,325 Entry: 20.611 Target: 22.119 Stop Loss: 19.749 Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.75 Profit at Target: ~$7,350 Loss at Stop Loss: ~$4,200 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by mintdotfinance
22
Factor Forex Spread into Trades: A Guide to Bid & Ask PricesHave you ever found yourself in a situation where trade was closed out before reaching your intended stop loss level, or where the market reaches your profit target but the trade never closes in your favour? It can be frustrating and confusing, leaving you wondering what went wrong. You may even start to blame your broker or the market itself, thinking they are conspiring against you. But the truth is, it's not the market or your broker - it's you. The key issue is that you're not taking the market spread into account when setting your trade levels. A professional trader must always factor in the spread to avoid inconsistencies and mishaps in their trades. In this post, we will discuss the difference between the BID and ASK price, understand what the market spread is and show you how to factor it into your trade levels for a smoother and more successful trading experience. As a professional trader, it is crucial to understand the BID and ASK prices. Failure to do so can result in costly mistakes when setting up trades. When placing a trade, these two prices are crucial to consider. The BID Price The BID price is something that every trader should have a good understanding of. The BID price is the price that is displayed on the charts, for example, if the USD/JPY pair was displaying 110.00 on your chart, then the BID price is 110.00. The BID price is the price that you deal with every time you press the sell button. This is because it is the price at which your broker is willing to purchase the currency from you. In other words, you are selling the currency to your broker at the BID price. The ASK Price The ASK price can be a little more complex, as it is often the cause of unexpected outcomes in trade orders. Typically, you do not see the ASK price when you have your charts open, it is only visible when you open your trade order window or enable that option in your trading software. The ASK price is the price at which your broker is willing to sell you the currency, and it is a completely different price than what you see on the charts. The ASK price is what you deal with every time the BUY button is pressed and it is typically more expensive than the BID price you are viewing on the chart. Therefore, the ASK price is the price your broker is "asking" for to sell the currency. The BID price may be 1.45000 on the charts but your broker's ASK price may be something like 1.45030. This is where the concept of calculated Forex spread comes into play. How to Incorporate Spread into Trade Planning When placing trade orders, it is important to remember two key principles. These principles must be applied every time you enter and exit a trade, so it is essential to memorize them or keep them in a visible place for reference. ~ When going long, the market is entered at the ASK price and exited at the BID price. ~ When going short, the market is entered at the BID price and exited at the ASK price. For instance, let's say you want to set a pending order to go long when USD/CAD reaches 1.30000 on the chart, you don’t simply place the pending order entry price at 1.30000. Remember the rule for long trades, you ‘enter the market at the ASK price because the ASK price is what your broker is willing to sell you the currency for. Whenever you are the buyer – the ASK price is quoted. If your broker's spread is roughly 2 pips for USD/CAD, when the market reaches 1.30000 your broker will be "asking" for 1.30020. So when the price on the chart reaches 1.30000 (this is the BID price), your broker will be willing to sell the currency for 1.30020 (when the spread is 2 pips). Therefore, if you place your pending order with an entry price of 1.30000, your trade will not be triggered because your broker is not willing to sell you the currency for that price at that point in time. In this case, you would have to wait for the BID price to reach 1.29980, at which point the broker's ASK price would be 1.30000 and your trade will be filled. In order to ensure that the trade is triggered when the BID price reaches 1.30000, you must factor in the market spread and set your entry order at 1.30020. Determining Stop Loss and Exit Prices for Long Positions Determining stop loss and exit levels for long positions is made relatively simple by utilizing the BID price. The BID price, which is the price at which your broker is willing to buy the currency back from you, reflects the prices that are commonly obtainable from the Interbank Market. When exiting a trade, the currency is sold back to the broker at the BID price. The BID price is the one that is visible on the charts, and there is no additional commission to be taken into account. Therefore, stop and target levels can be set directly off the BID prices displayed on the charts, making the process straightforward. Setting Up Short Trades When executing short trades, the process is reversed. Short trades are entered at the BID price, so the price displayed on the chart is used for the short entry order. However, the stop loss and target prices for short trades must take into account the Forex spread, as the trade will be exited at the ASK price, which is typically higher than the BID price due to the broker's commission. To ensure that stop loss levels are not triggered prematurely, the Forex spread must be calculated and added to the stop loss value. This will allow the trade to move freely to its stop-loss level before being closed. Additionally, the Forex spread must also be factored in for the target price levels of short trades. The target price should be found on the chart, the spread added, and that value should be used as the target price level for every short trade order. By following the proper procedures for calculating and factoring in the Forex spread, you can now confidently place trade orders and enter the Forex market in an effective manner. This will prevent frustration and disappointment by ensuring that pending orders are executed correctly and that trades exit at the intended price levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingEdgeHQ
Putting All Your Eggs in One BasketCME: Pork Cutout ( CME:PRK1! ), CBOT: Corn ( CBOT:ZC1! ), Soybean Meal ( CBOT:ZM1! ) Diversification is a fundamental concept in investing. In order to minimize the chances that market volatility wipes out your entire net worth, it is important to put your money in several investments with different levels of risk and potential return. This is summarized nicely in a single phrase – “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket”. In 2022, however, if you have followed this time-honored advice and allocated your money carefully across major assets, you would have lost money! Why did diversification fail this time? Let’s look at the annual return by major investment category: • Stock Market: S&P 500, -13.9%, Nasdaq 100, -25.5% • Bond Market: 2-Year T-Notes, +6.7%, 10-Year T Notes: -10.6% • Precious Metals: Gold, -6.9%, Silver, +8.8% • Currencies: US dollar index, +6.7%, Euro, -4.1%, British Pound: -9.9% • Energy: WTI crude oil, +1.2%, Henry Hub natural gas, -12.7% • Agricultural Commodities: Wheat, -1.9%, Corn, +11.3% • Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, -53.3%, ETH, -55.4% A diversified portfolio is not necessarily low risk. In time of distress, assets thought to have low correlation could all move in the same direction – going down. Last year, geopolitical crisis, high inflation and central bank tightening took turns driving financial markets lower. When a major crisis breaks out, all correlation goes to 1. This happened in 1998, when the Russian debt default took down Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), the largest hedge fund in the world. It repeated in 2007 and 2008, when the subprime crisis bankrupted Bear Stern and Lehman Brothers, the mighty Wall Street investment banks. It also wiped out the entire asset class in credit default swaps and exotic mortgage-backed securities. In this past year, troubles in one crypto Exchange, FTX, drove all cryptocurrencies down. Bitcoin, Ethereum and stablecoins all lost value by half, even though the decentralized nature of the crypto market design is supposed to prevent this from happening. The Soaring Egg Price Ironically, if you put all your eggs in one basket, figurately, your investment would have doubled! According to price data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Large Shell Eggs, Grade A, have average retail price at $4.25 per dozen across US cities at the end of December, up 112% for the year. A portfolio of shell eggs beats the return of all 15 assets listed above, by a wide margin! A new term, Eggflation , has been invented to capture this phenomenon. Americans in recent years have increased egg consumption while reducing intake of red meat in their diet, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Interesting statistics : the total flock of egg-laying hens in the U.S. is around 320 million, almost matching the population of people. Each grown hen could lay as many as 320 eggs a year. And each of us eats about as many eggs as one hen can lay in a year. Egg consumption has grown in part because more families are eating them as their main protein diet. As demand for eggs has risen, chicken production in the U.S. has slumped as we are currently experiencing the most severe avian (bird) flu epidemic in the US history. Nearly 58 million chickens have been infected with bird flu as of January 6th, according to the USDA. Infected birds must be slaughtered, causing egg supplies to fall and egg prices to surge. So far, the total flock of egg-laying hens is down about 5% from its normal size, as farmers work hard to replace their flocks as soon as they can after an outbreak. On average, new-birth chicks take four months to grow into egg-laying hens. Egg prices are not likely to fall in coming months until decease-free hens are fully grown. While US CPI has cooled to 6.5% in December, inflation for food items is much higher at 10.4%. Eggs are just one of many food staples that skyrocketed in price in 2022. Margarine costs in December surged 44% from a year ago, while butter rose 31%, according to the CPI data. Egg Futures Contracts in the US and in China CME Group, the world’s largest Derivatives Exchange, traced its root to the Chicago Butter and Egg Board founded in 1898. Standardized egg futures contract started trading in 1919, as the Exchange reorganized as Chicago Mercantile Exchange. CME egg futures were actively traded for sixty years. As the egg industry consolidated and egg prices stabilized over the years, the contract was delisted in 1982. In November 2013, China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange launched its own Egg Futures. The contract is based on 5 metric tons of shell eggs. As a consultant, I assisted DCE in contract launch as well as ongoing support. On January 13th, daily trading volume of DCE egg futures was 98,893 lots, with open interest standing at 204,202 contracts. A Case for Intermarket Spread The huge surge in egg prices amplifies the market risks for egg industry. Without the price discovery function at the futures market, farmers would have a hard time projecting future price trend. They rely on cash market prices to make production decisions. It takes four months to grow chicks into egg-laying age. Each commercially-raised hen will lay eggs for 1-1/2 years before being slaughtered. For each flock, farmers face price risks for up to two years. The main feed ingredients, corn and soybean meal, could be hedged with CBOT futures contracts. But egg and chicken prices are exposed naked. Farmers are rapidly expanding their flocks as egg price skyrocketed. At some point, there will be too many chickens in the henhouse, causing egg price to crash. Maybe an egg futures contract could make a big difference. I think it is time to bring back the CME egg futures. Until then, you could consider intermarket spread if you want to participate in the market: Buy Pork Cutout (PRK) and Sell Corn (ZC) and Soybean Meal (ZM) futures. August PRK rose 14% from October and currently prices at 30% above the front February contract. • Like Hog Margins, this intermarket spread attempts to capture the profit margins in egg production. This is based on projected up trend in both pork and egg prices. A second intermarket spread is to Buy DCE Egg Futures (JD) and Sell CBOT Corn (ZC) and Soybean Meal (ZM) futures, if you could trade the Chinese futures market. Finally, you could buy shell eggs in cash market and store them in a cold storage. You would make money if future egg price surge could cover the storage cost. Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
CME:PRKQ2023Long
by JimHuangChicago
9
What is a Spread in Forex?Hello hello! In this post, we'll take a look at the basic principles behind the spread in forex market and why it is important. In the foreign exchange market, the spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price for a particular currency pair. The bid price is the highest price that a market maker is willing to pay for a currency, while the ask price is the lowest price at which a market maker is willing to sell the same currency. The spread, therefore, represents the cost of trading a particular currency pair. When trading in the forex market, traders usually buy a currency at the ask price and then sell it at a higher bid price, hoping to make a profit. The spread is the difference between the two prices and it represents the trader's cost of trading that currency pair. The spread is usually expressed in pips, which is the smallest unit of price change in the forex market. For example, if the bid price for EUR/USD is 1.0735 and the ask price is 1.0740, the spread would be 5 pips. The size of the spread can vary depending on the currency pair being traded and the market conditions. Some currency pairs, such as the major pairs like EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD, tend to have relatively tight spreads, while others, such as the exotic pairs, can have wider spreads. Also, the spread can vary depending on the trading conditions, for instance, during high volatility period, such as economic news release, the spread tend to widen. In forex trading, traders should always be aware of the spread as it represents a cost of trading and it affects the trader's potential profits and losses. Spreads are usually factored into a trader's profit and loss calculations and it is important to consider the spread before opening a trade. Some brokers also offer variable spreads and fixed spreads, it is important to be aware of the difference between the two. Many online forex brokers now offer variable spreads, which means that the spread will change depending on the market conditions, but some brokers also offer fixed spreads, which means that the spread will remain the same regardless of market conditions.
Education
by m_maia14
3 Steps to find your Value per Pip with Forex - 4 decimalsDo you know how much money you’ll risk every time you take a Forex trade? To be an astute Forex trader, you’ll not only need to know your trading levels such as your entry, stop loss and take profit price, but you’ll also need to how much money to deposit into your trade to risk a certain portion of your portfolio. We’ll go through a three step checklist, you’ll need to find your ‘value per pip’ which is also known as your ‘rands risked per pip’. The ‘value per pip’ explained The ‘value per pip’ is the amount of money in your portfolio that you’re willing to risk or gain for every one pip that moves in or against your favour. If you choose a ‘value per pip’ of R5 and the market moves 20 pips away from your entry price, this means you’ll incur a R100 loss (R5 risk per pip X 20 pips movement). Similarly, if the market moves in your favour of 20 pips, then you’ll be up with a gain of R100. However, we all have different portfolio values and so the ‘value per pip’ will be different for each of us. That’s why you’ll need a checklist to follow in order to find your ‘value per pip’. 3 Steps to find your ‘Value Per Pip’ Here are the specifics for the trade Portfolio value: R50,000 2% Max risk per Forex trade: R1,000 Trade type: Buy (go long) Currency pair: AUD/USD Entry price: 0.7010 Stop loss price: 0.6970 Next, you’ll need to follow three steps: Step 1: Calculate the portfolio risk per trade Before each trade you take, you’ll need to know exactly how much money you’re prepared to risk. If you’re a risk averse trader, like me, you’ll risk 2% per trade. If you’re an aggressive trader, maybe you’ll risk 5% of your portfolio per trade. For this example, let’s stick to 2% risk. You’ll then multiply your current portfolio amount by the risk percentage you’re willing to lose in the trade. Here’s the calculation. Risk per trade = (Portfolio size X Max percentage risk per trade) = (R50,000 X 2%) = R1,000 R1,000 is all you are prepared to risk per trade, when your portfolio value is R50,000. Step 2: Calculate pips risked in trade The next step is to calculate how many pips you’re prepared to lose between the entry price and your stop loss price. As each pip movement is four decimal places on each currency, you’ll multiply the difference between the entry and your stop loss price by 10,000. Here’s the calculation: Trade risk in pips = (Entry – Stop loss) X 10,000 = (0.7010 – 0.6970) X 10,000 = 40 pips This means, you are prepared for the market to move 40 pips away from your entry before you’ll be taken out of your trade for a loss. Step 3: Find your ‘value per pip’ You now have all of the variables you’ll need, to calculate the ‘value per pip’ with your Forex trade. Here’s the calculation. ‘Value per pip’ = (Portfolio risked per trade ÷ Pips risked in trade) = (R1,000 ÷ 40 pips) = R25 This means, on your trading platform you’ll type in, R25 for where it says ‘Rands risked per pip’, ‘Pip value’ or ‘Volume’, place your entry price at 0.7010 and your stop loss price at 0.6970 in order to risk R1,000 of your portfolio. You have the three step checklist to find your ‘value per pip’ for every Forex currency that has decimals 4 points to the right. Trade well, live free. Follow for more daily Trading Tips and lessons I've gained over the last 20+ years. Timon MATI Trader
Education
by Timonrosso
1
2% Rule with CFDs versus Spread TradingThe rule is very easy to understand. Whether you trade using CFDs or Spread Betting, the rule is the same. Never risk more than 2% of your portfolio on any one trade. It’s one rule that you can use whether you have a R1,000 account or a R10,000,000 account. You see, trading is a forever business. This means, as a trader you should risk as little of your portfolio as possible in order to stay in the game longer. We’ll now go straight into how you to enter your CFDs and Spread Betting trades using the 2% rule. How to enter your CFD trade using the 2% Rule Here are the specifics for the trade CFD of the underlying Company: TIM Ltd CFDs Portfolio value: R100,000 2% Max risk per CFD trade: R2,000 Entry price: R400.00 Stop loss price: R380.00 To calculate the no. of CFDs you’ll buy per trade, you’ll need the: ~ Max risk per trade ~ Entry Price and ~ Stop loss price Next, you’ll need to follow two steps: Step #1: Calculate the risk in trade The ‘risk in trade’ is the price difference between where you enter and where your stop loss is: Risk in trade = (Entry price – Stop loss price) = (R400 – R380) = R20 Step #2: Calculate the no. of CFDs to buy No. of CFDs to buy = (2% Risk ÷ Risk in trade) = (R2,000 ÷ R20) = 100 CFDs In your platform you’ll type in 100 TIM CFDs to buy, place your entry price at R400 and your stop loss price at R380 to risk only 2% of your portfolio. Note: 1 CFD = 1 Share exposure 100 CFDs = 100 Shares exposure How to enter your Spread Trade using the 2% Rule With spread trading you trade on a ‘value per 1 point’ basis. You’ll choose either: R0.01, R0.10, R1 or any other amount per 1 cent movement in the underlying market. If you choose R0.10 value per 1 cent movement, for every 10 cents the market moves against or for you, you’ll lose or gain 100 cents (10 cents value per point X 10 cents movement). Here are the specifics for the spread trade. Contract of the underlying Company: TIM Ltd Portfolio value: R100,000 2% Max risk per Spread trade: 200,000c (R2,000) Entry price: 40,000c (R400.00) Stop loss price: 38,000c (R380.00) To calculate the ‘Value Per Point’ to enter your long (buy) trade, you’ll need the: ~ Max risk per trade ~ Entry Price ~ Stop loss price Next, you’ll need to follow two steps: Step #1: Calculate the risk in trade Risk in trade = (Entry price – Stop loss price) = (40,000c – R38,000c) = 2,000c (R20.00) Step #2: Value per 1 cent movement Value per 1 cent movement = (2% Risk ÷ Risk in trade) = (200,000c ÷ 2,000c) = 100c (R1.00) This means, with a ‘Value per point of 100c’ every 1 cent the TIM Ltd share price moves, you’ll make or lose 100 cents. Every 2,000c the market moves, you’ll make or lose 200,000c or R2,000 of your portfolio (100c Value per 1 cent movement X 2,000c movement). Note: 1 Cent per 1 cent movement = 1 Share exposure 100 Cents per 1 cent movement = 100 Shares exposure
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
EXPLAINED: How Gearing Works with CFDs and Spread TradingNot sure what happened but the image didn't show. Here it is again... This is the most important concept you’ll need to understand to accelerate your account. During your trading experience, with gearing, you’ll learn how to multiply your profits. But you can also multiply your losses, if you don’t know what you’re doing. So listen up. What Gearing is in a nutshell… Gearing also known as leverage or margin trading, is the function that allows you to pay a small amount of money, in order to gain control and be exposed to a larger sum of money. There is a very simple calculation you’ll use calculate the gearing for both CFDs and Spread Trading. Exposure Initial margin In order to understand this formula, let’s use three gearing examples with shares versus CFDs and Spread Trading. We’ll break it up into three steps for CFDs and Spread Trading: 1. Calculate the entry market exposure 2. Calculate the initial margin (Deposit) 3. Calculate the gearing We’ll also exclude costs to help simplify the gearing concept better. EXAMPLE 1: Buying AAS Ltd shares Portfolio value: R100,000 Company: AAS Ltd Share price: R109.00 No. shares to buy: 100 If you buy one share at R109 per share, you’ll be exposed to R109 worth of one share. If you buy 100 shares at R109 per share, you’ll be exposed to R10,900 worth of shares (100 shares X R109 per share). We know that to be exposed to the full R10,900 worth of shares, we needed to pay an initial margin (deposit) of R10,900. If we plug in values into the gearing formula, we get. Gearing = (Exposure ÷ Initial Margin) = (R10,900 ÷ R10,900) = 1:1 This means, there is NO gearing or a gearing of 1 times, with the share example as, what we paid is exactly as what we are exposed to. Easy enough? Let’s move onto CFDs. EXAMPLE 2: Buying AAS Ltd CFDs Portfolio value: R100,000 CFD of the underlying Company: AAS Ltd CFD Share price: R109.00 Margin % per CFD: 10% (NOTE: Find out on your trading platform or ask your broker for the margin % per CFD) No. CFDs to buy: 100 Step #1: Calculate the entry exposure of the CFD Entry exposure = (Share price X No. CFDs) = (R109.00 X 100 CFDs) = R10,900 NOTE: 1 CFD per trade, you’ll be exposed to the value of one share. 100 CFDs per trade, you’ll be exposed to the value of 100 shares. Step #2: Calculate the initial margin of the CFD trade Initial margin = (Exposure X Margin % per CFD) = (R10,900 X 0.10) = R1,090 This means to buy 100 CFDs, you’ll need to pay an initial margin (deposit) of R1,090. Step #3: Calculate the gearing of the CFD trade Gearing = (Exposure ÷ Initial margin) = (R10,900 ÷ R1,090) = 10 times With a gearing of 10 times, this means two things… #1: For every one CFD you buy for R10.90 per CFD, you’ll be exposed to 10 times more or the value of one AAS Ltd share. #2: For every one cent the share price rises or falls, you’ll gain or lose 10 cents. EXAMPLE 2: Buying AAS Ltd CFDs Portfolio value: R100,000 Underlying Company: AAS Ltd Share price: 10,900c Value per point: 100c (R1.00) Margin % per Spread Trading contract: 7.50% (NOTE: Find out on your trading platform or ask your broker for the margin % per share contract) Step #1: Calculate the entry exposure of the spread trade Entry exposure = (Share price X Value per point) = (10,900c X 100c) = 1,090,000 (R10,900) Note: 1c value per point per spread trade– you’ll be exposed to one AAS share 100c value per point per spread trade – you’ll be exposed to 100 AAS shares Step #2: Calculate the initial margin of the spread trade Initial margin = (Exposure X Initial margin) = (1,090,000c X 0.075) = 81,750c (R817.50) This means, you’ll need to pay an initial margin (deposit) of R817.50 to be exposed to R10,900 worth of AAS Ltd shares. Step #3: Calculate the gearing of the spread trade Gearing = (Exposure ÷ Initial margin) = (1,090,000 ÷ 81,750c) = 13.33 times This means, by depositing R817.50 you’ll be exposed to 13.33 times more or R10,900 (R817.50 X 13.33 times) worth of AAS Ltd shares. You now know how gearing works with CFDs and Spread Trading, in the next lesson we’ll cover how to never risk more than 2% of your portfolio for each CFD and Spread Trade you take. Did you enjoy this article? Trade well, live free. Timon Rossolimos Feel free to follow our socials below for more.
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
EXPLAINED: CFDs versus Spread Trading 101What are CFDs and Spread Trading? Spread Trading (betting) and CFDs are financial instruments that allow us to do one thing. To place a bet on whether a market will go up or down in price – without owning the underlying asset. If we are correct, we stand a chance to make magnified profits and vice versa if wrong. Both CFDs and Spread Trading, allow us to buy or sell a huge variety of markets including: • Stocks • Currencies • Commodities • Crypto-currencies and • Indices. When you have chosen a market to trade, there are two types of CFD or Spread Trading positions you can take. You can buy (go long) a market at a lower price as you expect the price to go up where you’ll sell your position at a higher price for a profit. You can sell (go short) a market at a higher price as you expect the price to go down where you’ll buy your position at a lower price for a profit. EXPLAINED: CFDs for Dummies DEFINITION: A CFD is an unlisted over-the-counter financial derivative contract between two parties to exchange the price difference between the opening and closing price of the underlying asset. Let’s break that down into an easy-to-understand definition. EASIER DEFINITION: A CFD (Contract For Difference) is an: • Unlisted (You don’t trade through an exchange) • Over The Counter (Via a private dealer or market maker) • Financial derivative contract (Value from the underlying market) • Between two parties (The buyer and seller) to • Exchange the • Price difference (Of the opening and closing price) of the • Underlying asset (Instrument the CFD price is based on) EASIEST DEFINITION Essentially, you’ll enter into a CONTRACT at one price, close it at another price FOR a profit or a loss depending on the price DIFFERENCE (between your entry and exit). Moving onto Spread Trading. EXPLAINED: Spread Trading for Dummies DEFINITION: Spread Trading is a derivative method to place a trade with a chosen bet size per point on the movement of a market’s price. EASIER DEFINITION: Spread Trading is a: Derivative method (Exposed to an underlying asset) to Place a trade (Buy or sell) with a chosen Bet size per point on where you expect a Market price will Move (Up or down) In value EASIEST DEFINITION: Spread Betting allows you to place a BET size on where you expect a market to move in price. Each point the market moves against or for you, you’ll win or lose money based on their chosen TRADING bet size (a.k.a Risk per point or cent movement). The higher the bet size (value per point), the higher your risk and reward. The costs you WILL pay with Spread Trading and CFDs Both Spread Trading and CFDs are geared-based derivative financial instruments. As their values derive from an underlying asset, when you trade using Spread Trading or CFDs, you never actually own any of the assets. You’re just making a simple bet on whether you expect a market price to rise or fall in the future. If you decide to go with the broker or market maker who offers CFDs or Spread Trading, there are certain costs you’ll need to pay. Costs with Spread Trading With Spread Trading, you’ll only have one cost to pay – which are all included in – the spread. The spread is the price difference between the bid (buying price) and the offer (selling price). EXAMPLE: Let’s say you enter a trade and the bid and offer prices is 5,550c – 5,610c. The spread, in this case, is 60c (5,610c – 5,550c). This means your trade has to move 60c to cross the spread in order for you to be in the money-making territory. Also, if the trade goes against you, the spread will also add to your losses. Why the spread you ask? The spread is where the brokers (market makers’) make their money. Costs with CFDs Brokerage With CFDs, it can be different. Depending on who you choose to trade CFDs with, you may need to cover both the spread as well as the brokerage fees – when you trade. These brokerage fees can range from 0.2% – 0.60% for when you enter (leg in) and exit (leg out) a trade. NOTE: If the minimum brokerage per trade is R100, you’ll have to pay R100 to enter your trade. Daily Interest Finance Charge The other (negligible) cost, you’ll need to cover is the daily financing charges. If you buy (go long) a trade, you’ll have to pay this negligible charge (0.02% per day) to hold a trade overnight. However, if you sell (go short) a CFD trade, you’ll then receive this negligible amount (0.009%) to hold a short trade overnight. The costs you WON’T pay as a Spread Trader With spread trading (betting), you don’t own anything physical. When you take a spread bet, you’re simply making a financial bet on where you expect the price to move and nothing else. This means, there will be no costs to pay as you would with shares including: NO Daily Interest Finance charges NO Stamp Duty costs NO Capital Gains Tax NO Securities Transfer Tax NO Strate NO VAT NO Brokerage (all wrapped in the spread). The costs you WON’T pay as a CFD trader With CFDs, you’ll notice that there are similar costs with Spread Trading that you won’t have to pay including: NO Stamp Duty costs NO Securities Transfer Tax NO Settlement and clearing fees NO VAT NO Strate 24-Hour Dealings The great thing about Spread Betting or CFD trading is that, you can trade markets trade 24/5. I’m talking about currencies, commodities and indices. And with Crypto-currencies you can trade them 24 hours a day seven days a week. I have left out a very important difference between CFDs and Spread Trading… Gearing and how it works in real life…
JSE:J200Education
by Timonrosso
1
Trade the Crude Oil and Natural Gas spread to limit price risk.Energy commodities are a volatile bunch. Amid a complex backdrop of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, a summer filled with heat waves and macroeconomic headlines, energy prices can swing in both directions quickly. From a risk management point of view, one way to maintain exposure in the energy market whilst limiting directional/market risk is to trade a spread between two energy commodities. We can measure the spread of the WTI Crude Oil (CL) vs Natural Gas (NG) by dividing the prices of CL1! / NG1! . This ratio/spread provides us with an overview of the long-term relationship between the two products. Over the past month, the pullback in WTI Crude Oil prices has presented an opportunity in the CL-NG spread. Generally, the spread exhibits a short/medium-term mean-reverting behavior and this behavior is premised on a few factors. 1) There is some level of substitutability between the two products as a form of fuel, therefore higher prices may drive consumers to use one over the other. 2) Most oil producers also produce natural gas, thus rising prices may incentivize them to drill for one product over the other. 3) Used as a form of relative value measurement for energy cost. When the spread trades at a high, we know that oil is likely trading rich relative to natural gas, and vice versa. Currently, the spread is sitting right above the 10.5 level which has acted as a resistance level since 2018, except for the oil price crash during the pandemic. Revisiting the past 3 times when this level was breached, a long CL and short NG strategy proved favorable as the spread rebounded. The average length taken for the spread to reach the high is 3-5 months. Should this relationship hold, we can long the spread by buying 1 WTI Crude Oil Sep 2022 future contract (CLU2022) and shorting 1 Henry Hub Natural Gas Sep 2022 future contract (NGU2022). However, do note that the contract value of the CL futures is ~ $97,000 while that of the NG futures is ~$80,000, so there is some exposure that is not fully hedged. Spread Entry at 12.30, stops at 10.50. Targets at 17.80. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante
1
Macroeconomic: Long Bonds/Stocks, Short GoldGold bug's biggest complaint is ALWAYS manipulation of Gold prices... Enter: exhibit 1. This is the spread between Bonds and Gold, and it has reached maturity and should reverse from here IMHO. With yields at 3%, banks will enter the bond market en masse, hedging that position with a short on Gold. With yields finally attractive, the US DX will also continue to rally which will be good for both bonds and stocks. For Gold, here you can see the EW justification for a return to lower levels as part of a 4th wave (before eventually making new highs). Then a zoom in on the current breakdown: I think a short position in Gold is justified, as well as long Stocks. The bottom in Bonds has not yet shown itself but could be any minute or day IMHO. I think the biggest risk to this macroeconomic analysis is that we will see a deflation across multiple assets as a result of rising rates, which will be apparent if stocks don’t rally and bonds continue lower.
CBOT:UB1!
by FuturesIntelTM
DIA 320/315 Put Credit Spread - March 18th ExpiryDIA - The index ETF I like to trade but never gives me liquidity haha. Fill: 0.544 Fill (after comm) Strikes: 320 short - 315 Long Max Loss: 500-54 = 445 Short leg delta': 0.16 Reasoning: 1. White lines identified support/resistance zones 2. 10% return on margin and 16 delta short leg was below these zones and provided additional margin of error Simple trade with simple management - 50% take profit or -200% stop loss Questions, Comments, Leave them below!
AMEX:DIALong
by ThetaTrades
IWM 185/180 March 16 Put Credit SpreadTrade Credit: $0.55 = 11% Return on Margin Max Loss = 500 - 55 = $445 Strikes - Short 185 / Long 180 This morning I realized that I need to get more capital deployed based off of my trading plan (something I hope everyone has!) As such I went looking for trades, and today is not a bad day to enter trades. Reasoning is below! 1. Recent red days = Increased IV and increased Put prices (although this is slight reduced due to a large green morning) 2. Still bumping around in the trading range outlined by the white support and resistance lines 3. Todays green move up is above the prior two days candles move, and is the beginning of a confirmation of a possible move to the top of the range. If we are headed there, this trade will hit its take profit much earlier than expiration. I always try and keep these trades less than 30 DTE for 2 reasons: 1. it makes calculating expected return per month easier 2. Decay really ramps up after <45DTE and this just grows faster and faster. Ideally these trades are closed prior to <21DTE though as this is when other greeks can begin to bite you such as gamma. Questions. Comments? Put em below!
Editors' picks
AMEX:IWMLong
by ThetaTrades
10
SPY 400/394 Put Credit Spread - March 21 ExpiryFill: 0.54 Credit Strikes: 400/395 Max Risk: 500-54 = 446 This was an order that I had been sitting on all day, trying to hold myself back from reducing my target price. Ill be honest, I liked these strikes so I wanted the trade. Reasoning: 1. Large move down today, attacking prior lows - This is jumping the gun a bit as I usually wait for some confirmation of an upward movement, but as I mentioned I liked the strikes and the 10% Margin of error on the SPY, something I dont get often with my trades unless IV is high. 2. Yellow line is the lowest we have seen in 2022, and this still provides a 5% cushion from there as well. 3. Capital Deployment - I have been sitting on my hands alot recently, but I need to get trades out there. The reality is that I have built in risk management into my strategy and taken this risk into account when I project yearly returns, this is great to do, but means that if I do not deploy the amount of capital that I plan to, I dont hit returns because there is already a loss cushion built in. Currently around 20% deployed, and I should be at 34% as per my trading plan. Questions? Comments? Leave them below!
AMEX:SPYLong
by ThetaTrades
1
IWM 184/179 Mar 4th Put SpreadTrade entered today based on my thinking that 1. This is our second green bar in a row, and I believe that either we have found a new range in the 190-200 range or we are headed back up. Which leads me to point number two 2. If we are in fact in a range then the 184 short strike is outside of that range and then some, providing a decent margin of error. 184 was also the 16 delta short strike at the time, and met the return metrics for the trade (10% return on margin required - AKA Max loss). The plan will remain with these trades to close at -200% or take profit at +50%. Fill on these was -0.57 on average after commissions. That is it, mechanical and S/R based. Sorry there isnt more secret sauce!
AMEX:IWMLong
by ThetaTrades
Processing Spreads Provide Fundamental CluesSome futures markets offer contracts that are related to others and are processed products of the commodity. Understanding the price relationships, history, and paths of least resistance of the processed product versus the original input can provide valuable insight into supply and demand fundamentals. Moreover, these relationships shed light on other related assets. Market structures are the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle Processing spreads are real-time supply and demand barometers The soybean crush spread Gasoline and distillate crack spreads Monitoring corporate profits There is so much data at our fingertips, but we need to understand how to use and interpret the information. Processing spreads are invaluable tools as they are critical variables for market calculus when forecasting the path of least resistance of prices. The crude oil and soybean futures markets offer liquid futures contracts in products that can reveal significant trends, warning signs, and calls to action. Anyone who undertakes a home improvement project knows that the job will not go well without the correct tools. Trying to hammer in a nail with a screwdriver is far from optimal. Tightening a bolt with an ax is a disaster. The best tool leads to the optimal result. The processing spread is one of the most critical tools in my investment and trading toolbox. Market structure are the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle In the world of commodities, market structure are integral pieces of a puzzle. When put together, they provide clues about the path of least resistance of prices as they reflect and can be real-time indicators of supply and demand fundamentals. A commodity’s market structure includes: Term structure- Price differentials for nearby versus deferred delivery periods. Location differentials- Price differentials for delivery of a raw material in different regions. Quality differentials- Price differentials for differing grades, sizes, or composition of the same commodity. Substitution spreads- The price comparison of one commodity for another that can serve as a substitute. Processing spreads- The margin or differential for refining or transforming one commodity into its products. Together, the various pieces that comprise a market’s structure create a picture that often points to higher or lower price paths. Processing spreads are real-time supply and demand barometers The processing spread is one of the valuable tools in an analysts’ toolbox. It tells us if demand for the products is rising or falling. Consumers often require the processed product instead of the raw commodity. The differential between prices of the input, the commodity, and the output, the product, is a critical fundamental measure. Narrowing processing spreads signal falling demand while widening spreads are a sign that supplies are not keeping pace with requirements. Since futures contracts prices are constantly changing, processing spreads can be volatile. When the commodity and product trade in the futures market, the differentials provide a unique supply and demand perspective for traders and investors. There can be many reasons for price variance in processing spreads. However, comparing them to historical levels can serve as real-time indicators of fundamental forces that determine the underlying commodity’s price direction when exogenous factors are not impacting the overall refining or treatment process. Many commodities do not offer futures contracts in the products. The soybean and crude oil markets are exceptions. The soybean crush spread Soybean futures trade on the CME’s CBOT division. Soybean products, soybean meal, and soybean oil also trade in the futures markets on the CBOT with separate and independent futures contracts. Soybean meal is a critical ingredient in animal feed, while soybean oil is cooking oil. Both have other uses. Processors crush raw soybeans into the two products; the oil is the liquid from the crushing process, while the meal is the solid substance. The soybean crush spread can be highly volatile. The monthly chart shows the soybean crush spread over the past fifteen years. The spread traded to a low of a quarter of one cent to as high as $2.1950. The low was in 2013 when soybean futures were trending lower from the all-time high in 2012 at $17.9475 per bushel. The high was in October 2014 when soybean futures were consolidating at lower levels. The move to the high was because consumers bought soybean products at lower prices around the $10 per bushel level. More recently, the crush spread signaled that soybean futures had run out of downside steam. After trading to a high of $16.7725 per bushel in May 2021, the oilseed futures fell below $12 in October. When soybeans were on the high in May, the crush fell to a low of 52.75 cents. At high soybean prices, consumers backed off buying the oilseed products, leading to a price correction that took the price below the $12 per bushel level in October. Meanwhile, falling prices caused demand for products to return. The crush spreads traded to the most recent high at $1.9050 during the week of October 18. The rising crush spread was a sign of robust demand that lifted the raw soybean futures from the recent low. The November soybean futures chart shows the rise from a low of $11.8450 to the $12.50 level. The price action in the crush spread was a signal that demand for products would lift the soybean futures price. The processing spread action signaled the price bottom over the past weeks. Gasoline and distillate crack spreads Crude oil refiners process the raw energy commodity that powers the world into products, gasoline, and distillates. The NYMEX futures market trades contracts in crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil. Heating oil is a distillate fuel that is a proxy for other distillates, including jet and diesel fuels. Refineries process crude oil into the oil products by heating them to different temperatures in a catalytic cracker. The price differential between the input, crude oil, and the output, the products, are “crack spreads.” Rising crack spreads point to increasing demand for oil products. When they fall, it is a sign of oversupply or weak demand. Crude oil futures reached lows in April 2020 during the height of the global pandemic’s impact on markets across all asset classes. The NYMEX crude oil futures weekly chart highlights the bullish trend since April 2020 as the energy commodity has made higher lows and higher highs. The weekly chart of the gasoline crack spreads highlights the bullish trend since March 2020. Gasoline is a seasonal commodity that tends to reach highs during the spring and summer months and decline during the winter as drivers tend to put more mileage on their cars during the warm months. However, at the $17.63 per barrel level at the end of last week, the gasoline crack spread was appreciable higher than the peak in October 2020, when it reached $11.62 per barrel. The gasoline crack spread has provided bullish validation for the path of least resistance of crude oil’s price. The weekly heating oil or distillate crack spread chart also displays a bullish trend. Distillates tend to be less seasonal than gasoline as jet and diesel requirements are year-round. At the $22.53 per barrel level at the end of last week, the heating oil crack was far higher than its October 2020 peak at $9.96 per barrel. The crack spreads have supported the rising crude oil price as they point to robust product demand. Monitoring corporate profits While processing spreads can provide insight into the path of least resistance of prices for commodities that are inputs, they are also real-time earnings indicators for companies that refine or process the raw commodities into the products. Refiners or processors tend to buy the input at market prices and sell products at market prices. The refiners and processors make significant capital investments in refineries or other processing equipment. They make or lose money on the processing spread. When they widen, they experience a profit bonanza; when they fall, times can get rough. When the spreads rise above the cost of the process, profits rise. Low processing spread levels can lead to losses. Valero (VLO) is a company that refines crude oil into oil products. The chart shows that the high in October 2020 was at $44.88 per share. In October 2021, VLO was over the $80 level at the end of last week. Rising crack spreads have lifted profits for the oil refiner. Archer Daniel Midland (ADM) and Bunge Ltd. (BG) are leading agricultural processors. Soybean processing is one of the many business lines for the two companies. The rising soybean crush spreads have lifted profits for the companies. In October 2020, ADM shares reached a high of $52.05 per share. At the end of last week, the stock was at the $66.22 level. BG shares reached a high of $60.50 in October 2020 and were trading at the $88.33 level at the end of last week. The rise soybean crush spreads at least partially supported rising profits and higher share prices for ADM and BG. Processing spreads are real-time indicators for the demand of the commodities that are the inputs. They are also real-time earnings barometers for companies that process commodities into products. Any tool that improves your ability to analyze markets is worth keeping in that toolbelt. --- The full article and spread charts are available using the link below. You can also sign up for the Monday Night Strategy Call below. Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYSE:VLOEducation
by Andy_Hecht
3
GBP/USD EUR/USD Spread trade Spread between GBP/USD and EUR/USD is at high rate right now. Since Brexit 2016 the spread between these two has been between 0.1 (18th March, 0.07093).and 0.2 (14th February, 0,22174). In this strategy you bet money on the decrease of spread between these two currencies. GBP/USD and EUR/USD are correlated = 0.81 This means that they will most likely move together. In this trade we go long on EUR/USD and short on GBP/USD. If the EUR/USD will rise it should rise much more than GBP/USD. If GBP/USD falls it should fall much more than EUR/USD. The spread between these two needs to go down in this moment to be profitable.
by itshimon