XRP/USDT Reaccumulation!Hello my beauties.
I think that XRP/USDT is in a phase of reaccumulation, so I will be waiting for the price to retest demand and confirm the schematics to take a long trade. The arrows do not indicate exact price, rather the events that would take place in case the reaccumulation has been read correctly.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
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Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
Spring
TWO SCENARIOS FOR HP ACCUMULATION OR DISTRIBUTION?Hello my beauties.
I think HP might be accumulating. The range is clearly defined, but we need to understand whether this was a spring or a sign of weakness. Regardless, we will wait for the price to react to the top of the range by whether breaking it and retesting it successfully, or by breaking out and quickly recovering beneath the red line.
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Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
Coffee Re-accumulation! Hello my beauties.
The chart of coffee suggests a violent bullish breakout of a multi-year downward trendline. The price will probably continue its uptrend, but it is now signalling the beginning of a phase of re-accumulation; the price has reacted strongly with a sudden move to the downside that has stunned the price sideways. I will wait for further development to make sure the schematics play out as expected. I will wait for the price to breach the range in red to the downside, only to quickly recover within the range itself; the successful retest of the bottom of the range would be my buy signal before the uptrend continuation.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
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Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
How To Be Wrong And Still Make MoneyOk guys,
Let's get straight to it. The exact opposite happened after my last post and i still made 6.5% profit. Even the best investors have 67% win rate. So, how do you still make money while being wrong?
First, charting and trading are two seperate skills. You can be a very good charter and a terrible trader and vice versa, because it's the execution that makes the difference.
The secret here is to keep your losses small and let your winners ride, but you probably heard this many times.
Example:
You lost 1% on average on 9 out of 10 trades and win just one trade with 15% profit. This is 5% profit with 10% win rate. It shows you are a risk taker and not afraid to take risky trades. Your risk to reward ratio will be 1/15 which is hard to accomplish, but this is just an example right :)
You get the idea, so how do you cut losess, fast?
This is something i always do, but not always share and that's why i'm sharing this post today.
IT IS THE F****** STOP LOSS!
Let's face it, you will never have a 100% probability of winning a trade. We are not fortune tellers, nobody knows what's going to happen next. That's why you have to have a mechanism in place to protect you and that's called the humbe Stop Loss and it's not as simple as you might think.
So How Do I Set My Stop Losses?
First of all I don't set a fixed stop limit order, but a dynamic market order :) I'm using a trailing stop indicator TOTT Bands, which i told you about many times. It works both ways for longs and shorts. It's a trend tracking system that uses a variable moving average that adjusts itself based on volatility. Stop loss level adjusts itself with each candle. Here's how it looks on one minute chart:
This is algorithmic trading with pure math and probabilities. I use 1 min chart for short term profit taking opportunities like the one happened just yesterday and use 1 day chart for long term. Here's how it looks:
But don't be fooled by the simplicity of how it looks. I've spend almost a year to get to this level before i found this indicator. I had to learn how to optimize it, because the default values WILL loose you money. I purchased a software just to backtest it and just realized the software wasn't working on 1 min chart due to a bug, so i had it fixed etc. I now have a short term profit taking system along with long term strategy.
But you still have to learn technical analysis to optimize this indicator, simply because you should know where the system should sell and buy or you will end up with some lucky trades which will later turn in to bust. It's not easy.
This is how i survived yesterdays drop with 6.5% more Bitcoin by taking profits with my stop loss indicator and buying back lower. I used 30% of my account to take this trade which was set earlier for risk management purposes, because i've planned this trade and traded my plan! I was sleeping when stop was hit and on the way to my daughters school when it bought back. It works like a charm and i have not lost a single Sat since i started using it in May.
How Do I Automate This?
Using tradingview alerts and 3commas DCA bots which is connected to your exchange. Any alert you set on your charts, be it a trend line, price alert or indicator, can send a sell or buy signal to 3commas bots and it will execute on the exchange. You don't have to use this indicator, but use any stop loss that you can set.
I may not be the best analyst in town, but i know who is. I use the tools they build, learn from them and i wil continue to sharpen my skills. TOTT (Twin Optimized Tracker) Bands was built and shared at no cost by veteran trader Anıl Özekşi in Turkey as an upgraded version of his long time tested MOST indicator. It's published free by his colleague Kıvanç Özbilgiç, who is in the pine wizards list of Tradingview (www.tradingview.com). I also take courses from wyckoff analytics along with chart champions to sharpen my TA skills, so i nvest heavily in this.
Context Matters
When i share an idea, i'm interpreting the situation from my perpective. Which is the long i took at 41k. If we reject from 48k and take a nose dive, that's not a problem for me as i also have both the short term and the long term stop loss as i explained above. If you agreed with my idea and opened a new long position without using a stop loss, you need to sharpen your trading skills and learn risk management.
What now?
Let's go back to our chart, i think yesterdays price action is undeniably the spring. The shakeout on Sep 13th had the spring type nature for sure, but it did not cross below the Selling climax.
Lessons learned: Spring should cross below SC.
Also, notice how yesterday's volume is less than tiny Sep 13 shakeout. Diminishing volume shows supply is exhausted and all weak hands are shaken!
The double swing high was also confusing. It's a combination of upthrust and sign of strength, or may be just a bull trap after Upthrust. It did not even reach the resistance zone before going down which is a sign of weakness. Yes, i think it was a bull trap after the upthrust.
Right now price sits at the support zone, waiting for the FED meeting. I don't expect further downside and we should see a restest of the spring followed by a strong rally. This will validate the accumulation. If we go below the spring, then this turns out to be distribution which i don't think it is.
But remember, this is a similar situation we had back at 29k. Elon Musk & Jack Dorsey moment. But that was the restest of the spring, not the spring itself, so expect further sideways as well.
So, i'm even more bullish now (Note that this time at support zone :)))
but hey what do i know :)
PS. I know some of you will start trolling this post just like before. If you are happy when i'm wrong, that doesn't change the fact that i'm still winning while being wrong, but on the other hand you should see a phsycic :)))
XRP/USD WYCKOFF REACCUMULATION!Hello my beauties.
I think the price is leaving support and reacting to the buy zone very nicely.
After a spring, we'll normally get a SOS (sign of strength) and subsequent retest of the range, before the price goes on to generate a powerful markup.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value.
Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
Dust Settles In A Trading Range (More Accumulation!)Hi all,
My last post was at the begining of the uptrend which is still in play however with a correction and sideways accumulation right under the sell wall.
That said, there's nothing concerning right now and i did not make any changes to my position.
However, since we are in a sideways trading range, we have an opportunity to take a short at the top and long at the bottom.
So, i will be looking for invalidation of an upswing at 49k before taking a short and vice versa for the downswing at 43k.
For risk management and hedging purposes, i'll not short 100% of my account, but instead between 15% - 50% and keep both positions open, unless one of them gets invalidated.
BTW, My 100k target has changed as we have continued accumulation. I'm now looking at $123k as the pnf horizontal count suggests and we keep on accumulating!
Normally i don't trade intraday charts, but this is a good opportunity i don't want to miss and besides, i'd like to practice some swing trade as i have lots of free time now :)
As always, trade safe!
<TradeVSA> Bearish... or Another Trap ?Sign of Strength in the chart:
1. Spring Signal
2. Downbar low volume
3. Trading near NS signal
Case Study:
1. JHM
2. FPI
3. CAB
4. KYM
Disclaimer
This information only serves as reference information and does not constitute a buy or sell call. Conduct your own research and assessment before deciding to buy or sell any stock
Doji and Spring!!! GME Daily GME got it - Doji followed by a nice spring candle on the daily chart.
Bears may still manage to smash the price down a little bit more before lift off - see chart of candle set up before last rip.
Don't fret if the GME spring gets pushed down a little more from here - GME is so close! Stay Buckled Up!
Not financial advice.
Greatest Percent GAINER OVERBOUGHTAfter two great news, BLIN managed to run up to 10.41, making it an overbought stock.
Jul-02-21 09:24AM
Bridgeline Receives More than $2.5M in Warrant Exercises
GlobeNewswire
+56.00%
Jul-01-21 09:00AM
Bridgeline Partners Win More than 20 Site Search Licenses in its Third Quarter
GlobeNewswire
+33.72%
This two news made possible this situation in which stocks are starting to be sold by demand.
Looking at the chart, we can see how all highs where made with great volume, which is good but the corresponding candle didn't responded the same way, most of the time it closed in its third, showing how demand was getting out of the stock while it kept going up,
We had another sign of weakness in the upward trend when the triangle that formed duting the spring in the supposed wyckoff's accumulation phase, didn't break with strength even though, prices kept mooving up but very timidly, until we had another spike, this time a hammer candlestick (a warning about a change) with the second greatest volume of the timeframe;; this time, the remaining demand got out of the stock, that maintained some momentum that made it break the resistance formed by great volume with no volume ( another sign of weakness) and the icing on the cake comes when we had a doji, reasuring the weakness and how little time the bullish trend has left. (We also have the three SMAs overextended, and prices very far from them).
Surely the news made some great profits to the insiders, but the ones who came late are now out of the trend and should stay out until we have a few clear signs of strength. As we expect the stock price to come back, at least, to the lateral range limited by the blue support and resistance.
I Hope You Have A Great Day!!
Long Term EURUSD - VERY UNDERRATED Welcome back to the greatness of technical analysis.
This time we are looking at a EURUSD 1 month chart since 1994. In this timeframe we are able to capture all the movements, supports, resistances and patterns formed over time.
Prices came from a S-H-S pattern that broke the collarbone line, leading to a more than 5 years of dawnward trend. Until 2001, when demand got in the market, starting to form a triangle that broke in May 2002 which led us to the all time highs in 2008. Since then prices have been fluctuating a lot more, forming a few resistance and support lines marked as grey rectangles. During this time, the 200 SMA holded the prices very well, unti lit broke to form a very short but powerful accumaltion pattern where prices managed to form a spring where demand bought the short overextended sellers. And since then, prices got in a narrower triangle with already 3 out of 5 Elliot waves formed.
We are looking prices to get sideways for a bit longer until it breaks the triangle, it won't be considered a successful break until volume confirms the current trend and the 200 SMA gets under the price and under the 50 and 20 SMAs.
I hope you got some useful insights that hopefully will make you a better trader and analist.
Have a great day!
Some insightsCryptos are in one of their best moments, as they are getting the attention of the whole world, and that means that markets get volatile, if we get to manage that risk efficiently, we could achieve our financial goals.
This analysis is self-explanatory, even though, we can cleary see that this downward trend started with a pattern of change, Shoulder-Head-Shoulder, from there, we lived a 15+ days of continuous bearish days, until we hit the last resistance ( with prices greatly down the 200SMA) we could see a not that cleary wyckoff accumulation pattern. This pattern confirmed itself with a few test and springs, but the great confirmation was the breaking of the triangle(support and resistance) of the last month.
During this time, prices started recovering, and creating new resistances that are worth maintaining during the next few trends.
I hope this helps you get a different view of the current situation.
Hope you have a great day!!
Bitcoin Bullish Scenario / Possible Complex Spring Action?January's structure from earlier this year as an analog and comparing to current price action which was also within this same trading range.
We saw a penetration of the lower support in January followed by a few days of testing. The test resulted with a retest almost to the same low as the actual spring.
In Bitcoin's recent price action we saw a huge spike in demand on the penetration of lower levels although the rally has so far failed to materialise into the recent daily capitulation down bar. Whilst this does look bearish we know that the demand is aggressive at the 28/29K area.
Could it be we are in another complex spring type action similar to that of January's? Where we see testing go on for a few days giving the impression of weakness. A low liquidity weekend could be the catalyst that takes us down to test this recent low of the spring type action which could then lead to a successful rally and assault on 40K resistance.
This could be a very reliable trade set up with a favourable risk to reward ratio but do keep in mind the reversal could be a failure of the spring where see a plummet below support and down into the 20's.
I would recommend any entries to be taken on the sign of strength bar after a successful retest.
Remember to always manage your risk well.
Wyckoff pattern phase C is ruling BTC!As you can see yesterday retest of Phase C of Wyckoff pattern has been perfectly done,
RN the main way for BTC is going upside to the local and main resistances, This is not a high volume movement to the upside. This should be slow and steady but healthy. Im looking to take profit at each local R because if this pattern becomes true, Wyckoff Phase D will be started which is LPS. On HTF I expect HH and HL.
GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING.
CADJPY - IN TREND ENGULFING LONG SETUP (D)Confluences:
Re-accumulation forming
Recent higher highs
Spring closed above previous body high
Strong lower bollinger band outbreak
Large bullish engulfing candle
TP set at previous candle body highs. Trail SL for max profit.
SL set below engulfing candle low.
$BTC Re-Accumulation. Phase C?I believe we could be seeing a phase c of our re-accumulation structure.
We are seeing a lot of speculation and fear in the market which has been incredibly greedy and overheated.
RSI is approaching the oversold condition for the first time since March 2020 Covid 19 Sell off which was a spring action.
I expect institutional buying to take place around the 43 to 42K level.
I think this could be an incredibly good buying oppurtunity with risk managed accordingly.
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful...