Bullish Cypher - SPY spotted a bullish Cypher pattern on SPY’s daily chart, and it looks promising.
Entry: Current Market Price
Stop Loss: 575.50, just under the D-point, to give the trade some breathing room.
Targets: All time high
Ideas and Inputs are welcome.
Thank you for dropping by.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
SPY, Major Warning has been signalled for the stock market. The stock markets have been rattled by a concerning development that historically has been a precursor to increased volatility and economic uncertainty - the uninversion of the yield curve.
In December, long-term interest rates fell below short-term rates, reversing the inversion that had been in place. This yield curve uninversion is often viewed as a potential warning sign of an impending recession, as it has preceded the last seven recessions in the United States.
Looking back at past data, the last time the yield curve was uninverted in this manner was in 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a major market downturn. Prior to that, it uninverted in 2006-2007, shortly before the Great Recession hit in 2008-2009.
While the yield curve uninversion does not guarantee an imminent recession, it has proven to be a reliable leading indicator of increased market volatility and economic slowdown.
Trade safe,
Trader Leo
S&P500 - The Next 14 Days Will Decide Everything!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is about to break all resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of weeks, the S&P500 has been repeating the major breakout rally of 2021. Back then the S&P500 actually broke above the channel resistance and immediately rallied more than +15%. If we see the confirmed breakout, we will likely see the same thing happening again.
Levels to watch: $6.000, $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Critical Levels in S&P 500 Index this weekNavigating the S&P 500: What to Watch This Christmas Week
If you look at the S&P 500's technical chart, you'll notice something intriguing: Friday's rebound wasn't just any rebound — it came with a surge in volume. The Index is flirting with its 50-day Moving Average, a key indicator with investors on edge. As long as macroeconomic data doesn’t throw any curveballs, there's a promising outlook for a festive rally in the stock market this Christmas week. My eyes are on the 6,000 mark for the SPX as a pivotal point. If the momentum continues, we might even see it touch 6,100, which could be the ceiling for this bullish run.
SPX Hours needed to buy 1 shareHow expensive is the market? The average wage earner has to work 167 hours to buy 1 share of the S&P 500.
A new historic all-time high!
The markets are crazy expensive!
The inflation no one shows you or talks about is driven by massive deficits and cheap money.
Extreme Caution is in order!
SPX-USDT Trading Plan: From Demand Zone to ATH Zone
SPXUSDT is currently showing strong bullish momentum after a rebound from the demand zone around 0.5922. The price is advancing toward the ATH zone, with an immediate target set at 1.1000.
Key Observations
1. Demand Zone (Support Area):
- The 0.5922 level acted as a critical demand zone, prompting a strong bounce.
- Buyers stepped in at this level, indicating accumulation and bullish sentiment.
2. Rising Channel:
- The price is trading within a clear upward channel, suggesting a strong bullish trend.
- Breakouts from this channel, particularly to the upside, could accelerate momentum.
3. Resistance Levels:
- The ATH Zone represents a key resistance where the price may face some selling pressure.
- A breakout above the ATH Zone will pave the way toward the 1.1000 target.
4. Trend Continuation:
- The price appears to be following a zigzag pattern, respecting the channel structure.
Momentum and Indicators
1. Volume:
- Increased volume near the demand zone signals strong buying pressure.
2. Projection:
- Price is projected to continue climbing as long as the trendline remains intact.
- Any retracement could provide new entry opportunities near the channel’s lower boundary.
Trading Plan
1. Entry Points:
- Accumulate near 0.5922 if the price retests this demand zone.
- For breakout traders, consider entering after the price clears the ATH Zone with volume confirmation.
2. Stop-Loss:
- Place a stop-loss below 0.5500 to manage downside risks.
3. Profit Targets:
- Primary Target: 1.0000 (psychological level).
- Extended Target: 1.1000, as highlighted on the chart.
4. Risk Management:
- Risk no more than 2% of total capital on this trade.
---
Scenarios
1. Bullish Scenario:
- Price continues to respect the rising channel and breaks above the ATH Zone, targeting 1.1000.
2. Bearish Scenario:
- Failure to sustain above 0.5922 may lead to further downside, targeting lower levels of the channel.
Pro Summary
SPXUSDT is exhibiting strong bullish behavior, with a potential move toward the ATH Zone and beyond. Traders should closely monitor the key levels and align their entries with the trend to maximize profits while managing risks effectively.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies and other financial instruments carries significant risks, including the risk of loss of capital. Always trade responsibly and consider consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions 📊
DYOR (Do Your Own Research) 🔔
#CryptoMarketCycles #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #MarketPhases
S&P500 5 month Channel Up bottomed. Bullish reversal started.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up since the August 5th bottom.
Wednesday's Fed fueled correction crossed under the 1day MA50 but stabilized yesterday and today found support over the 1day MA100 and rebounded.
This low is very close to the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1day MA100 was the level that supported the early September pull back.
The 1day RSI is also reversing, and the 3 times it posted a similar pattern inside the Channel Up, it was a bottom.
Buy and target 6200 (+7.10% from the bottom).
Previous chart:
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Agricultural commodities outperforming After a +20% gain in the first quarter of the year, AMEX:DBA formed a 30-week base respecting the 2022 highs
Price resolver higher confirming the continuation of the uptrend making 52-week highs
This week has been very bad for the equity indexes, but AMEX:DBA is making 3 month highs relative to the SP:SPX
The best thing to do in this kind of market environment is to look for what is outperforming
SPX 2025 Strategic Outlook 7150 points Wave Five Bull Market🔸Time to update the SPX outlook, this is 2D price chart, we are
currently entering overpriced zone and limited upside in SPX
going forward next few weeks correction / pullback.
🔸SPX price structure since 2023 is defined by a five wave impulse wave 3 completed already and currently we are in wave 4 pullback/correction until 5415 points. expecting wave four pullback to complete in January 2025.
🔸Wave 1 is 3600 to 4625, wave two 4625 to 4125, wave three 4125 to 6100,wave 4 pullback/correction now is 6100 to 5416, final bullish wave five is expected to start from 5415 to 7150 points (30% bull run). Wave 5 expected to start in January 2025 and complete sometime in Q4 2025. A/B/C 40% correction will follow as the market will enter extremely overbought zone.
🔸Recommended strategy position traders: wait for the wave 4 correction to complete at/near 5415 points in January 2025 and then BUY/HOLD into wave 5 final target is 7150 points in Q4 2025. Obviously, this is a longer BUY/HOLD trade setup and patience is required with this trade. good luck!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Weekly Indicator Panel WARNED last weekend...ALL Red Flags already, as warned by my panel of leading indicators.
You would see that all threshold have been triggered and are clearly red flags IF the week closes at current levels. The week has not ended, but it appears bad enough.
There should be an attempt tp recover somewhat, but overall appears that Santa Claus might crash this rally this year. Furthermore, the year end and year start are keen indicators of the year ahead as well... so watch closely.
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Selling was too strong to be just a pullback in this bull trend. Best guess is that the trend is over and we are in a huge two-legged correction down to 5800 or lower. 5927 was the low from my W2 and we can expect sideways to up around this price. The lower bull wedge trend line should get a retest.
comment : Bull trend is over. We are likely in a trading range the next weeks until we begin a new bigger bear trend. Bulls can still make a higher but it has gotten very unlikely after today’s selling. Huge follow-through would be down to 5800 but that’s a bit much for now. A bounce could retest the lower bull wedge line around 6000-6050, depending on when we get there, if we get there.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5800 - 6050
bull case: Bulls might be running for the exits. Very interesting day tomorrow if bears can close another one below 6000 or if we trade back up. I would only take longs on very strong momentum. First target for bulls is 6000 and then 6050ish.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears with a huge surprise bar, changing the market character and ending this rally. Now their target is to keep the market below 6000 and then they have a chance of selling down to 5800. It is still somewhat unlikely to see bigger follow-through selling during these weeks of the year but it could happen. Right now it’s best to be flat and wait if bears want more blood.
Invalidation is above 6100.
short term: Neutral. Only small scalps for me to either direction. Can have bigger swings going into Opex on Friday. Expecting a bigger bounce going into the last 2 weeks of December and then much bigger selling in Q1 2025.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Nothing. Don’t gamble FOMC or other news releases.
S&P500 hit the MA50 (1d). Huge buy signal.S&P500 hit today its MA50 (1d) following the Fed Rate announcement.
At the same time, it is testing the bottom of August's Channel Up.
As long as it closes daily inside the pattern, this is a strong buy opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6200 (+5.75% rise similar to the previous one).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) hit its 3 month Support Zone. If it reverses on it, that might be an even better signal for a buy entry.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Collapse of the S&P! Can it hold? S&P 500 www.tradingview.com Drops to 6000 : Just as We Predicted
The S&P 500 has hit the 6000 level, right in line with the scenario we discussed earlier. This critical support, reinforced by the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart, is proving to be a key battleground.
If you’ve been following our previous idea, you’ll remember we anticipated this pullback to 6000, calling it a likely turning point for the index forming a head and shoulders pattern And here we are, watching the prediction unfold. A bounce here could break the head and shoulders.
Now, the big question is whether 6000 will hold. If it does, we could see a rebound toward 6100 or beyond. If it breaks, 5900 or 5800 could be the next stops. Either way, this moment underscores how crucial strong analysis is for navigating markets like this one. Fed announcements may play a role in rhe direction we go. Let's see how it plays out.
USOIL Best Level to Short/Hold 10% swing trade setup🔸Hey guys, today let's review the 2 hour chart for US oil . Any upside is
limited by strong overhead resistances, currently trading near range highs
so overall risk/reward shifting in bears favor.
🔸Strong resistances will cap upside at 72.00 usd / 72.50 usd. right now
locked in tight trading range, however expecting final pump to trigger overhead stop losses before reversal and subsequent sell off event.
🔸Recommended strategy for BEARS: wait for the final pump before short selling from strong overhead resistances at 72.00 and 72.50 SL fixes at 74.00 usd, TP1 bears is 68 usd TP2 bears is 66 usd. swing trade setup, patience required. good luck!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Why I think the SPX500 upside is now capped to 6285 maxIn this video, I have covered century long Elliott Wave counts briefly to present a case on why we are close to completing the upside and soon will be rolling over to the downside. Only one leg on the upside seem pending and that should not extend beyond 6285.
Watch the video for details.
P.S. - There is some disturbance in audio during start so please bear with me.
SANTA RALLY or BUST (FOMC)Market is likely to move the first hour and then become choppy. FOMC today at 2PM est and Powell speaks at 2:30.
Semis look like they want to start moving with NVDA and ASML leading.
Futures gapping a bit higher this morning, FOMC today so I’d wait until after 2:30pm to see how the market reacts to Powell
SPX just in a range from 6034-6100 for now, SPX lots of resistance at 6071 and 6100 so be patient for now, under 6034 can test 6k.
Let’s see if SPX gets through 6071 after FOMC
SPX best to hold 6034
SPX Dec 20 6100c best above 6071
Stay Frosty!
META 529 AFTER EARNINGS ? REASONS WHY !!
AI Integration and Advancements: Meta has been prioritizing the integration of artificial intelligence across its applications, which has played a crucial role in the company’s rally2. The market has responded positively to Meta’s efforts in developing and monetizing AI applications, leading to a boost in the stock price.
2. Digital Advertising Market Recovery: The digital advertising market has seen a rebound, which has directly benefited Meta’s core revenue stream. As one of the leaders in digital advertising, Meta’s financial performance has improved with the market’s recovery.
3. Operational Cost Reduction: Meta has implemented several rounds of layoffs, reducing its operating costs significantly. This move has improved the company’s profitability and margins, making it more attractive to investors.
4. Strategic Shifts: Meta has made strategic shifts, such as scaling back its investments in the metaverse, which were initially met with skepticism. This change in strategy has improved investor confidence and contributed to the stock’s growth.
5. Market Conditions: The overall market conditions, including interest rates and economic policies, have also played a role in Meta’s stock performance. A favorable environment for tech stocks has helped propel Meta’s stock to new heights.
Robinhood TP 23- 33 After earnings ? Reasons Why !!
In Q4 2023, Robinhood’s net revenues increased by 24% year-over-year to $471 million.
This growth was driven by higher net interest, transaction-based, and other revenues1.
The company reported net income of $30 million, a significant improvement from the net loss of $166 million in Q4 20221.
Adjusted EBITDA rose to $133 million, a 62% increase year-over-year1.
Customer Growth and Assets Under Custody (AUC):
Funded Customers increased by 420 thousand year-over-year to 23.4 million1.
AUC surged by 65% year-over-year to $102.6 billion1.
Market Expectations and Confidence
Robinhood’s ability to turn a profit in Q4, coupled with its record annual revenues, suggests that its strategic initiatives are paying off. The company’s innovative features and strong financial performance have instilled confidence in investors.
Remember that stock prices often respond to earnings reports. If the market believes a company is performing well, stock prices tend to go up. Conversely, if confidence wanes, stock prices may decline2.
Keep an eye on Robinhood’s upcoming earnings report on Wednesday, May 8th, 20243. It will provide further insights into the company’s performance and may impact its stock price.
$RIVN 15 DOLLARS AFTER EARNINGS ? NASDAQ:RIVN 15 DOLLARS AFTER EARNINGS ?
Rivian Automotive has confirmed that its next quarterly earnings report will be published on Tuesday, May 7th, 20241.
The earnings conference call is scheduled for 5:00 PM Eastern on the same day1.
Stock Price Movement:
As of now, Rivian’s stock price stands at $9.21 per share1.
The stock has been volatile, and investors are closely watching its performance.
Market Expectations
While Rivian has faced challenges, including supply chain disruptions and production delays, the market remains optimistic about its long-term prospects. The company’s plans to expand its fast-charging network and its innovative electric truck and SUV models have garnered attention.
Keep an eye on Rivian’s stock price after the earnings report. If the company delivers positive surprises, we might see movement toward your mentioned target of $15 per share. However, stock prices are influenced by various factors, so it’s essential to stay informed.
SPX 5500 BY 2025 ? REASONS WHY !!!
Optimistic Market Forecasts: Analysts and strategists, such as those from Deutsche Bank and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO, have made bullish predictions for the S&P 500. Deutsche Bank's forecast for the S&P 500 to reach 5,100 in 2024, and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield anticipates the S&P to reach as high as 5,500 points by the end of 2024.
These forecasts indicate a strong belief in the market's potential to continue its upward trend.
Strong Earnings and Valuations: The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 of 25.7 is above the 5-year and 10-year averages. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks, which could be a positive sign for further market growth.
Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has already hit 23 new records in 2024 and has been performing above average historical years. This indicates strong market momentum and investor confidence.
Cumulative Weight of Top Stocks: The cumulative weight of the top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 has hit a 50-year high. This indicates that the market's performance is being significantly influenced by the performance of a small number of large-cap companies, which could potentially drive the index higher if these companies continue to perform well.
Market Resilience and Recovery: The market has shown resilience and recovery from the economic downturn, with the S&P 500 already up by 9.6% this year, which is above the average year since 1950. This resilience could be a sign of continued growth throughout the year.
Positive Outlook from Analysts: Analysts like CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall predict that the S&P 500 will hit 5,400 by year-end and 5,610 within the next 12 months, indicating a positive outlook for the market's performance.
Potential Rate Cuts: The expectation of rate cuts by the European Central Bank could provide a boost to the global economy and the U.S. markets, including the S&P 500.
Positive Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment seems to be positive, with a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 from various analysts and strategists. This positive sentiment could drive further investment and growth in the market.
Technology Sector Performance: The technology sector has been a leading performer, soaring 50%, indicating strong growth in this sector, which could help drive the S&P 500 higher.
Economic Data Surprises: The U.S. economy has been showing positive surprises in economic data throughout 2023, suggesting that the economy is stronger than expected, which could support the market's growth.