SPX (S&P 500 Index)
S&P500 Channel Up testing its bottom.S&P500 is trading inside a Channel Up that just hit its MA200 (4h).
This is a strong short term buy opportunity for the next bullish leg.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6200 (+3.29% rise like the previous bullish leg).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) got oversold. The last 3 times this happened, the price immediately rebounded.
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SP500 | Pivot Zone Retest – Will the Support Hold?S&P 500 Analysis | February 21, 2025
The price is currently consolidating within the pivot zone (6,102 - 6,143), which is acting as a key level.
🔹 A break below 6,102 will confirm a bearish move toward 6,031 and 5,979, continuing the downward trend.
🔹 If the price stabilizes above 6,143, we may see an attempt to break toward 6,168 and 6,224 as the next resistance zone.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 6128
Resistance: 6143 - 6168 - 6224
Support: 6102 - 6079 - 6031 -
S&P500 Channel Up priced a bottom. Buy.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a 20 day Channel Up.
The price hit today the 1hour MA200, while the 1hour RSI breached the oversold limit and rebounded.
The two times this happened before, it was a signal that the Channel Up has formed a bottom.
The bullish waves that followed, rose by at least +2.00%.
Buy and target 6200 as the new higher high of the Channel.
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.21.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🛢️ Trump Considers 25% Tariff on Imported Cars: President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, aiming to protect domestic manufacturers. This move could impact global trade relations and the automotive industry.
🇷🇺🇺🇸 U.S.-Russia Diplomatic Talks: High-level discussions between U.S. and Russian officials are set to continue, focusing on resolving the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Outcomes from these talks may influence global markets and geopolitical stability.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Friday, Feb 21:
🏭 Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 51.3; Previous: 51.2.
💼 Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 53.0; Previous: 52.9.
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.13M; Previous: 4.24M.
📉 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 71.1; Previous: 67.8.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Hurry Up and Wait - The Markets Favourite GameHurry Up and Wait – The Market’s Favourite Game | SPX Market Analysis 21 Feb 2025
These kangaroo markets just won’t quit. Every time we break out of one range, the Bollinger Bands pinch again, locking us into another one.
Meanwhile, other indexes fell out of bed, but SPX? It’s clinging on by "the Bulls".
When will it finally open up and run? Who knows—but until then, I’ll keep finding new ways to say ‘hurry up and wait’.
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Markets Keep Bouncing, But Not Breaking
It’s like watching a kangaroo on a trampoline—lots of movement, no real progress.
SPX tries to push out of one range 🏋️♂️
Bollinger Bands pinch again, trapping price in a new range 🔄
Other indexes have fallen, but SPX refuses to follow
This makes trading tricky, as every potential breakout is quickly absorbed into another consolidation.
The Bollinger Band Pinch – What It Means
When Bollinger Bands tighten, they signal:
📌 A period of low volatility
📌 A potential breakout coming – but direction unknown
📌 Traders getting frustrated waiting for a real move
Normally, I’d switch to Tag ‘n Turn setups during breakouts, but with volatility still tight, I’ll stick to my 6 money-making patterns instead.
For now, it’s all about waiting for a clean break—no fake moves, no forced trades.
Final Thoughts – When Will the Market Open Up?
📌 The big move is coming—we just don’t know when.
📌 SPX is clinging on, but other indexes are weakening—watch for cracks.
📌 Bollinger Bands are tightening—when they expand, volatility will return.
Until then? It’s back to ‘hurry up and wait’.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2015, the New York Stock Exchange halted trading for nearly four hours—and the official reason? A “technical glitch”.
💡 The Lesson? Even the biggest, most advanced markets can freeze up, just like we’re seeing with these tight, choppy conditions.
S&P 500 Faces Rejection at Key Resistance?📉 False Breakout or Consolidation?
S&P 500 hit 6,129 but failed to hold above it, retreating to 6,090 (-0.75%).
This level marks a key resistance zone, with sellers stepping in to cap gains.
🔍 Key Technical Levels:
Resistance:
6,129 → Previous high, acting as a short-term ceiling.
Support:
6,018 (50-day EMA) → First area bulls want to defend.
5,900 → Stronger structural support if momentum weakens.
📊 Momentum Check:
RSI at 54.86 → Neutral, room for both upside and downside.
Price remains above the 50-day EMA, keeping the uptrend intact for now.
🚀 What’s Next?
Bulls need a decisive close above 6,129 to confirm a breakout.
A rejection here could trigger consolidation or a pullback toward the 50-day EMA.
Watching for either a breakout confirmation or a deeper retest of support levels.
-MW
SPX Target 6270 - Can It Get There?SPX Targets 6270 – But Can It Get There? | SPX Market Analysis 20 Feb 2025
The SPX is climbing like a caffeinated squirrel... ok, maybe not. It’s more like a slightly confused sloth trying to find second gear!..., while DJX and RUT are stuck in the mud.
The breakout move we’ve been waiting for has arrived, and now the question is—does it have enough fuel to hit 6270, or will it stumble and trigger my hedge at 6100? Bollinger Bands are too tight for reliable setups, so I’m sticking with my 6 money-making patterns until volatility expands.
Let’s break it all down…
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📈 SPX is Soaring (like a fat pigeon!) – But the Other Indexes Aren’t Joining the Party
While SPX is off making new highs, its friends DJX and RUT seem to have lost their invitations.
DJX is struggling to gain meaningful ground 📉
RUT can’t even catch an uptick, making it the weakest of the bunch ❌
Meanwhile, SPX is leading the way, with a clear breakout in play
A closely following NDX is nipping at SPX's heals
💡 Breakout Confirmed – But Can It Hold?
Scenario #1 from our previous discussions has unfolded—the range has broken out.
Target: 6270 🎯
Hedge trigger: 6100 in case the move fails
This is the good kind of waiting—waiting for profits to materialise
🔄 Why I’m Avoiding Tag ‘n Turn Setups Right Now
Normally, after a breakout, I’d shift back to Tag 'n Turn setups. But there’s a problem…
Bollinger Bandwidth is too tight, making moves too fast
Price is flipping from one side of the bands to the other
A Bollinger Band pinch is forming, indicating more compression before expansion
So, what’s the plan?
✅ I’ll continue to use my 6 money-making patterns
✅ I’ll wait for volatility to expand before returning to Bollinger setups
✅ No forced trades—only high-probability moves
🚀 Final Takeaway?
The breakout is here, the target is set, and the plan is clear. Now, it’s time to let the market do its thing and wait for the move to play out.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2018, Amazon briefly became a $1 trillion company—but it only stayed there for a few hours before dropping back below the threshold.
💡 The Lesson? Even the biggest breakouts can be short-lived—just because a stock (or index) makes a new high doesn’t mean it will stay there forever. Always have a plan—targets and hedge triggers matter.
S&P500 Holding Above ATH Zone–Breakout to 6168 or Pullback FirstS&P 500 (SPX500) Technical Analysis – February 20, 2025
The S&P 500 is consolidating above the ATH pivot zone (6,122 - 6,129), maintaining its bullish momentum within an ascending channel. The market is testing key levels, with buyers looking to push toward the next resistance zone.
Technical Outlook
Bullish Scenario: As long as the price holds above 6,122, the uptrend remains intact, targeting 6,168 and 6,224. A breakout above 6,224 could extend the rally toward 6,279.
Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below 6,122, it could signal a correction toward the 6,102 pivot zone. A confirmed 4H close below 6,102 could lead to further declines toward 6,031 and 6,010.
Key Levels to Watch
🔹 Pivot Zone (ATH): 6122 - 6129
🔹 Resistance Levels: 6168, 6,224, 6279
🔹 Support Levels: 6102, 6031, 6010
📈 Directional Bias: The market is expected to test 6,168, and as long as 6,122 holds, the bullish momentum remains valid. A break below 6,122 could lead to a short-term correction.
💬 Will S&P 500 continue its uptrend, or is a pullback coming? Drop your thoughts! 👇🔥
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.20.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇰🇷📉 Samsung Share Cancellation: Samsung Electronics plans to cancel over 57 million shares, including 50.1 million common shares and 6.9 million preferred shares, on February 20. This move aims to reduce the total number of issued shares without decreasing the company's capital.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Thursday, Feb 20:
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 19.4; Previous: 44.3.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 214K; Previous: 213K.
📈 Leading Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: -0.1%; Previous: -0.1%.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Bullish Cypher - SPY spotted a bullish Cypher pattern on SPY’s daily chart, and it looks promising.
Entry: Current Market Price
Stop Loss: 575.50, just under the D-point, to give the trade some breathing room.
Targets: All time high
Ideas and Inputs are welcome.
Thank you for dropping by.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
SPX, what should we expect?Since 1932, the price has touched this trendline many times, which means that this trendline is very strong and important. SPX and back to home Just be patient.
change the line chart to the candlestick. everything will be obvious.
I'm telling you about the end of the cycle not now. Spx can go higher. but I don't care. It's not a good time to buy and invest
ES Morning Update/Chart Sent Out Yesterday6120 continues to be a money magnet in ES. Yesterday’s approach was simple: the 6116-20 zone had to hold to keep 6138 and 6154+ in play. It held perfectly, and we ran to 6157—so just hold your runners.
As of now:
• We’re in a complex flag between 6129 and 6154
• 6129 must hold and rebound by 38 points to unlock targets at 45 and 54+
• If 6129 fails, expect a dip toward 6116, then 6109
SPX In Limbo - Which way will it break?SPX in Limbo – Will It Break Up or Down? | SPX Market Analysis 19 Feb 2025
Still waiting. Yep, that’s where we are.
The market is about as exciting as watching paint dry, but this is not the time to get impatient. As much as I’d love to jump into a trade just to feel productive, I know better—waiting for the right entry beats chasing the wrong one.
Let’s break it down while we sip on tea and pretend to be Zen masters of market patience.
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
Why Patience is Everything in Trading
There’s an old trading rule that never fails—the market will always move… eventually. But right now, it’s in one of those frustrating, indecisive moods where:
Nothing is confirming (so forcing a trade is a bad idea)
It’s stuck between two key levels (meaning we wait for the breakout or breakdown)
Volume is sluggish (which means false moves are more likely)
Still Watching Two Scenarios
☑ Scenario #1 – The Bullish Breakout Entry
Needs price to confirm above key resistance
No fakeouts—just clean, strong momentum
Only then do I consider a bullish trade
☑ Scenario #2 – The Bearish Reversal Entry
Needs clear rejection at resistance
No weak, choppy movements—just a solid confirmation
Only then do I take a bearish setup
Why Forcing Trades is a Losing Game
Let’s be honest—waiting is boring. But do you know what’s worse? Jumping into a trade just because you're impatient… and then watching it immediately go against you.
Every trader, at some point, has thought:
"It looks like it’s going to move, maybe I should enter early…" (Nope.)
"I don’t want to miss the move…" (You won’t—if you follow the plan.)
"Other traders are jumping in—should I?" (Nope. They’re probably wrong.)
The right trade at the wrong time is still the wrong trade.
What’s Next?
✅ Stay patient—the market will tip its hand soon enough
✅ Wait for clear confirmation—not “I think this might be it” confirmation
✅ Don’t trade out of boredom—trade because the setup is 100% valid
📌 Final Takeaway? Patience = profit. I’m still waiting, tea in hand, and when the market finally makes its move, I’ll be ready.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know?
The stock market used to take 5 months to process a trade before the 1970s. Now? It happens in milliseconds—but traders still struggle to wait a few hours for the right setup.
💡 The Lesson?
Patience has always been a trader’s best tool. Some things never change.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.19.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🗣️ President Trump's Address: At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, February 18, President Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech that may provide insights into upcoming policy directions.
📱🍏 Apple Product Launch: Apple CEO Tim Cook has announced a new product launch set for February 19, 2025. Speculations suggest it could be the iPhone SE 4, featuring a 6.1-inch OLED display and an A18 chip with Apple Intelligence.
📊 Key Data Releases:
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 1.390M; Previous: 1.499M.
📄 FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM ET): Detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's policy discussions from the January meeting.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$SPY $SPX Pullback to Gap Fill? I've been waiting for a rocket to AMEX:SPY $630 but my monthly tells me that February wants to close red. Here is my daily with a fib that we cant seem to hold above although today we did close above once I have been waiting patiently in this box unlike others, I have constantly reiterated, don't try to be a hero inside of the box. Now that the Box seems to be pushing towards the upside, I can't help but notice we continue printing bearish candles regardless of direction. Today we closed with a Hangman, which begs the question, could we perhaps lean bearish for two of the most bearish weeks of the year in comparison? I'd like to think I'm not wrong here and we will get a spill before anyone gets an expected blow off top. Be careful out there, volatility remains present and the VIX was above the 50DMA last time I checked. If we can get this gap fill and start moving back up, I will be confident in the gap fill being bottom. Seeing as $593 AMEX:SPY alert for bottom never filled, I will have to assume it's still a possibility. Taz out.
S&P500 - The 2025 Bullrun Just Started!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) will rally massively during 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of years, the S&P500 has perfectly been respecting the trendlines of a rising channel formation. After the recent rally of +70%, it is quite likely that - following the 2020 cycle - we will see another final rally of about +20% before the S&P500 will correct itself.
Levels to watch: $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)