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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

SPX: Investors` defensive positioning? The past week brought a flurry of important US macro data and a high market volatility in line with it. In addition, the FOMC meeting brought up increased nervousness regarding Fed's view on current and future macroeconomic developments. As Fed Chair Powell informed the public, the inflation is perceived to pick-up a bit as a reflection of imposed trade tariffs, but the Fed is not expecting that it will have a significant effect on increasing inflation, but only the one-off effect. Future Fed moves will continue to be data dependent and risk-assessed, in which sense, a direct answer to potential September rate cut was not provided by Fed Chair Powell. Although Friday brought up some major market corrections in the S&P 500, Thursday's trading session was the one to bring major sentiment and indication over forthcoming correction. Namely, Thursday started in a positive manner, where the index reached a new all time highest level at 6.427, but soon after the market tumbled down, ending the trading day at 6.333. Futures were traded lower on Friday, where the S&P 500 was opened by 1,5% lower, ending the week at 6.238. These movements during the last two trading days are quite important because such strong moves in the value of index could be imposed only by institutional investors, showing their sentiment regarding the macro environment expectations at this moment. Much of the negative market sentiment was driven by surprisingly weak non-farm payroll data of only 73K in July, which was below market estimate of 110K. At the same time, the unemployment rate modestly picked up in July to 4,2%, from 4,1% posted previously. Some analysts are noting that this could be a summer seasonal effect, however, investors are concerned that this could be a sign of a weakening US economy, due to implemented trade tariffs. During the time of writing this article, CNBC posted a news that the U.S. President Trump ordered immediate release of a duty of a Commissioner of labor statistics, due to continued posts of inaccurate labor data and its frequent revisions, also putting doubts that the July figure of 73K is accurate. Regardless of actual accuracy of the US jobs data, investors continue to be concerned regarding the effects of implemented trade tariffs on earnings and growth of US companies. As analysts are noting, some of them are trying to lock in gains as earnings risks emerge, but with future uncertainties, a defensive positioning of investors might be wider in the coming period.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
The $CURE For Your Healthcare PortfolioHey team, Everyone knows how the health sector is beat up. The Trump administration hasn't shown any mercy to the health and pharma sectors. They’ve been hammering Big Pharma with a mix of fiery rhetoric and aggressive policy moves. Trump has brought back his “most favored nation” drug pricing plan, tying Medicare reimbursements to what other countries pay, slashing profits for drugmakers who’ve been charging Americans a fortune. As a result, some of the top health stocks such as NYSE:PFE , NYSE:LLY , NYSE:JNJ , and NYSE:UNH , among many others, have been suffering. We need, however, to understand that healthcare is sometimes cyclical, and there are some clues that tell us what's likely to happen next: For most years, AMEX:XLV (health index ETF) is highly correlated with the $SP:SPX. Historically, when this correlation breaks, it's either because healthcare is lagging behind the S&P 500, or because the S&P 500 is crashing, and healthcare is holding well because healthcare is recession-resistant. Typically, these moments of uncorrelation are followed by a very well-performing healthcare sector. AMEX:XLV / SP:SPX is now at a 25-year low! Healthcare stocks have never been so low in 25 years compared to the benchmark. While the S&P P/E ratio is at 28, healthcare is at 14. This shows a potentially underdeveloped sector. The spread between healthcare and the rest of the stock market is very large and unnatural. Considering this, it's more likely that it will regress to its mean and recover. You can see this in the Dual Z-Score indicator in the chart. Additionally, the US midterms are coming, which can bring policy changes that might favor healthcare again. Now, you might be wondering: Why invest in AMEX:CURE and not in AMEX:XLV ? I plan to allocate around 2% of my portfolio to CURE, the 3x leveraged ETF, because it's an easier way to achieve the proper Kelly allocation to this sector, a sector that I believe will recover over the next couple of years. The leverage provided by this ETF will help compound returns. Is this strategy risky? Well, CURE is 3x more volatile than XLV, but this is the way I see it: healthcare is already too beat up to continue declining sharply from here. Additionally, healthcare is recession-resistant, meaning that it should not be too affected if the US economy suffers, enters a recession, or if unemployment numbers increase. I think CURE gives me a potentially good risk/reward ratio, considering that if healthcare catches up with the S&P 500, CURE could return approximately (and very roughly) 100%. Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
SP:SPXLong
by HenriqueCentieiro
3
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 4–8, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 4–8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📦 U.S. Tariffs Finalized as August 7 Deadline Nears President Trump’s administration confirmed newly finalized tariff rates—ranging from 10% to over 40%—on dozens of countries, set to take effect starting August 7. The announcement has heightened global trade uncertainty and injected volatility into equity markets 📉 Weak Jobs Data Spurs Concern July’s nonfarm payrolls came in at just 73,000 jobs added, far below expectations, while revisions to May and June data subtracted a combined 258,000 jobs. In response, the administration fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics head, escalating political risk around economic transparency 📈 U.S. Shows Resilience Amid Policy Chaos Despite the tariff-era turbulence and labor softness, U.S. Q2 GDP rose by 3%—outperforming forecasts. Businesses racked up inventory as a hedge, absorbing initial price shocks. Still, concerns about sustained inflation pressures and waning consumer confidence linger 🎯 Earnings Week Spotlight on Tech & Industrial Names Major companies reporting include Palantir (Monday), AMD, Uber, Disney, McDonald’s, Gilead, Pfizer, Constellation Energy, and Eli Lilly. Markets will watch for AI signals, consumer demand, and industrial trends 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, August 4 Factory Orders (June) — Critical for industrial demand and trade momentum. 📅 Tuesday, August 5 ISM U.S. Services PMI (July) — Thermometer for expansion in the biggest part of the economy. S&P U.S. Services PMI (July, flash) — Preliminary signal on service-sector strength. Trade Balance (June) — Watching for impact of tariffs and shifting cross-border flows. 📅 Thursday, August 7 Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims — Weekly labor-market readings post weak payroll report. Productivity & Labor Costs (Q2) — Reflect business efficiency and wage trend shifts. Wholesale Inventories (June) — Key for supply-chain and inventory cycle insights. Consumer Credit (June) — Measures household borrowing resilience. 📅 Friday, August 8 Fed Speech: St. Louis Fed President Musalem — Market-watchers will look for cues on the near-term rate path. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This weekly outlook is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #jobs #earnings #inflation #Fed #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
08/1/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +440 Sleep: 6 hours Overall health: Good VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 10:12 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal — 10:20 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal —12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! — 1:50 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal, — 3:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!** What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Market range expanded a lot today, we dropped over 100 points today and sometimes i forget to adjust my bracket orders to go for 10 -15 points take profits when the volatility is so high. But overall, it was a good day, I knew to be patient as market was wild and sometimes you want to just snipe a few trades and call it a day before you get caught on the wrong side. The great thing about big moves is that it will eventually hit a major level and it will react really well, you just have to wait for it. a great question is will the market recover? Or is going back down to April prices? News *STOCKS TUMBLE TO END THE WEEK, VIX SPIKES AS SOFT JOBS DATA STOKE ECONOMIC JITTERS What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6330= Bullish, Under 6310= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
SPX500 Dips Ahead of NFP as Tariff Risks RiseSPX: S&P 500 Dips to Close July — Still Positive for the Month Amid Tariff Tensions & Fed Uncertainty The S&P 500 retreated in the final session of July, weighed down by renewed tariff concerns and lingering uncertainty around the Fed’s next move. Despite the late pullback, the index remains positive for the month overall. Looking ahead, non-farm payrolls (NFP) and U.S. jobs data are expected to have a strong impact on market direction. In addition, August 1st marks a key date for potential tariff developments, which could trigger further volatility. Technical Outlook – SPX500 The index has dropped approximately 2.5% since yesterday and maintains a bearish bias as long as it trades below 6283. If the price continues to slide, the next downside target is 6246, with further support at 6223. However, if the price manages to close above 6289 on the 1H timeframe, it could trigger a bullish recovery toward 6320 and 6341. Pivot Line: 6283 Support Levels: 6246 • 6223 Resistance Levels: 6320 • 6341
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 1, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 1, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📦 U.S. Imposes New Tariffs as Deadline Passes Fresh tariffs rolled out on August 1 hitting major exporters: 25% on Indian goods, 20% on Taiwan, 19% on Thailand, and 15% on South Korea. Canadas tariff elevated to 35%, though Mexico got extra negotiation time. Global equity markets slipped modestly, led by declines in Asia-Pacific regions. AMEX:SPY futures also eased on mounting geopolitical and trade pressures. 🏦 Fed Uncertainty Mounts Despite Calm GDP Despite robust Q2 GDP growth and a hold on interest rates this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell faced growing unrest. Comments acknowledged downside labor risk amid trade uncertainty—investors are now assigning just a 39% chance of a rate cut in September. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Friday, August 1: 8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls (July): Payrolls rose by 106,000, less than June’s 147,000 but still positive. Wage growth slowed, easing inflation concerns slightly. 8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate: Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, from 4.1% in June—reflecting modest labor softness. 8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Wages rose +0.2%, down from +0.4% in June, signaling wage pressure easing. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #tariffs #inflation #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
**07/31/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis ** EOD accountability report: + Sleep: 5.5 hours Overall health: Good ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) ** — 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3 — 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X7 Sell signal — 9:32 AM Bullish market structure got cancelled — 11:40 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal — 12:40 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal — 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! — 1:22 PM if we lose 6415 and stayy under it . Bullish Market structure is cancelled. — 1:55 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Today marked the 4th day of the structure signals being iffy as they try to tip the volumes bullish just to cancel it right afterwards. I was starting to get a bit tilted today as I had a bunch of orders at area that didn't get filled and eventually just gave up trying to have a green day and walked away. looking at some of the other charts, i also we are getting a doji on the longer time frames and it is starting to look like bear's wet dream. However, Mag 7 stock earnings were really great, the only downside was rate cut isn't happening. News *U.S. STOCKS END LOWER, VIX JUMPS AS S&P 500, NASDAQ RETREAT FROM RECORDS DESPITE MONSTER META AND MICROSOFT EARNINGS What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6415= Bullish, Under 6403= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DiYWALLST
SPX6900 Bulls Eyeing 33% Surge Toward Explosive $2.60 TargetHello✌ Let’s analyze SPX6900’s upcoming price potential 📈. MEXC:SPXUSDT has maintained strong bullish momentum in recent weeks, supported by a stream of positive fundamentals 📈. The price is currently holding within an ascending channel and resting near daily support. If this level holds, a 33% upside toward the $2.60 target could follow 🚀 ✨We put love into every post! Your support inspires us 💛 Drop a comment we’d love to hear from you! Thanks , Mad Whale
Long
by MadWhale
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 30, 2025🔮 Nightly  AMEX:SPY  /  SP:SPX  Scenarios for July 30, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🧭 Fed Holds Steady Amid Uncertainty As the FOMC enters its July 29–30 meeting, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, even as one or two governors may dissent in favor of rate cuts amid mixed economic data. Recent strength in consumer spending contrasts with weakness in housing and construction. 🌐 U.S.–China Trade Talks Resumed in Stockholm Talks are under way aimed at extending the tariff truce before the August 12 deadline. Both sides described progress as constructive, though analysts remain cautious on the timeline and potential outcomes. 🛢️ Oil Up / Dollar Firmer, But Risks Remain Brent crude hit ~$72.50/barrel (+3.5%) while WTI rose to ~$69.20 on a mix of geopolitical tension (possible new Russia tariffs) and trade optimism. The U.S. dollar edged higher following the U.S.–EU trade agreement. 📈 IMF Revises Up Global Growth—but Flags Tariff Risks The IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast to 3.0% and maintained 3.1% for 2026, citing pre-emptive consumer demand—but warned that ongoing U.S. tariffs and policy inconsistency could dampen momentum. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, July 30: FOMC Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady. Powell’s remarks will be closely watched for signals on the timing of future cuts and views on inflation and labor markets. Advance Q2 U.S. GDP Estimate The first look at Q2 growth is expected around +1.9% YoY, potentially validating a rebound after Q1’s contraction. June PCE & Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index) The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Markets will monitor if core inflation remains elevated, which may reinforce policy caution. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This summary is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #GDP #inflation #trade #tariffs #markets
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
2
07/29/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: +734 Sleep: 5 hours Overall health: Been struggling with sleep due to heat waves VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) — 8:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish✅ — 9:30 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal✅ — 9:36 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! ❌ — 11:49 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal✅ — 11:59 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal❌ What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? Today was one of the few short the resistance day and refreshing to see after we been grinding ATH (all time highs) News — 1:30 PM 🇺🇸🇨🇳 *CHINA SAYS IT AGREES WITH US TO EXTEND TARIFF TRUCE What are the critical support levels to watch? --> Above 6395= Bullish, Under 6374= Bearish
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by DiYWALLST
3
$SPY rolling over, potentially to new lows?While I was early to the idea (like usual), still don't think the thesis will be wrong. I still believe we're going to see a large move down from here. Yesterday's price action made me pretty confident a top was in (TBD). We had positive news and the market couldn't rally on that positive news and we ended up closing at the lows -- indicating to me there's no more buyers. Today we have treasuries, the dollar and volatility all rallying while equities selloff, a classic risk off signal. You also have crypto selling off too. I think we see a large risk off move from here on out, the target is the $440 area (extreme down to $400), but if we find support at one of the other levels above that, there's potential for us to rally from there. Will have to see how price action plays out over the coming weeks.
AMEX:SPYShort
by benjihyam
16
SPX500 Correction Before Rally? Key Levels in FocusSPX500 Correction Before Rally? Key Levels in FocusSPX500 OVERVIEW Fundamental Context: The U.S. and EU have averted a tariff standoff. The agreement reduces the baseline tariff on most European imports to 15%, down from the previously threatened 30% by the Trump administration. In return, the EU has committed to investing approximately $600 billion in the U.S. Additionally, U.S.–China trade talks are ongoing in Stockholm, with reports suggesting a possible 90-day extension to the tariff deadline. Technical Outlook: SPX500 maintains a bullish bias due to easing trade tensions. However, as long as the price trades below 6421, a short-term correction toward 6397 and 6388 is likely. A rebound is expected if the price stabilizes above 6388. 🔺 Bullish Continuation will be confirmed if a 1H candle closes above 6427, potentially targeting 6454 and 6470. Key Levels • Support: 6397 – 6388 – 6365 • Resistance: 6454 – 6470
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
Direxion High Beta Bull S&P 500 3X | HIBL | Long at $30.86Contrarian view, despite tariffs. I don't think this rodeo is over - but I could always be wrong. Even if individual consumption drops (which I think it has for some time now), rising prices will continue to mask it. Many, but not all, companies will profit and until there is a "bigger" catalyst... bullish. AMEX:HIBL is a personal buy at $30.86 (also noting the possibility of it going into the FWB:20S in the near-term) Targets: $40.00 $45.00 $50.00
AMEX:HIBLLong
by WorthlessViews