SPX (S&P 500 Index)
ES levels and targets Oct 9thFor the past 2-3 weeks, ES has been bouncing between the 5805 and 5740-30 range. Yesterday, I was watching for a rally to 5805, and we hit it. Now, we’re flagging ahead of CPI.
As of now: Expect more range filling for now. Supports are at 5795 and 5780 (weak). If buyers hold them, 5805, 5812, and 5819 are upside targets. If 5780 fails, look for a dip to 5769-73.
S&P500 Consolidation almost over. Prepare for 6300 end of year.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been consolidating for roughly the past 3 weeks, significantly above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which indicates that the long-term trend is not in danger. In fact, we believe that it has already entered a Channel Up structure, similar to November 2023 - March 2024.
As you can see, in late November 2023 the index was also consolidating way above its 1D MA50 after a strong recovery from a -10.90% correction. This time the consolidation is exactly at the top of the previous High while then it was exactly below it.
The 1D CCI sequences between the two fractals show that we are on the exact same position, posting bearish divergencies on the price's consolidation.
As a result, we expect a smooth Channel Up expansion towards the end of the year (quick exception the natural volatility around the U.S. elections day) and our Target is 6300, which is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level.
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ES levels and targets for Oct 8thOvernight, ES showed very precise technicals, continuing to fill out the 5805-5740 range for the 3rd week now. Yesterday, the 5771 short idea went well, dropping all the way to 5734 area before recovering and rallying.
As of now: 5762-60 (weak) and 5751-46 are support levels. As long as buyers hold, 5773 and 5783+ are in play.
SPX6900 ($SPX) Soar Over 35% Amid LBank Listing & Whale ActivityThe meme token SPX6900 ( SP:SPX ) has been on an absolute tear, skyrocketing over 35% in the last 24 hours and achieving a remarkable 5000% gain over the past 30 days. As of today, SP:SPX is trading at $0.507, with a market capitalization of $472 million, positioning it as one of the most talked-about tokens in the meme coin space. So, what’s fueling this explosive growth?
Key Drivers Behind SPX6900’s Surge
1. New Listing on LBank
The most significant catalyst for SPX6900’s recent price surge is its new listing on LBank, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges. Trading for SPX/USDT began on October 8, 2024**, in the **MEME Zone** at 07:00 UTC, while deposits opened an hour earlier at 06:00 UTC. Withdrawals will become available on October 9. This listing has generated widespread excitement among traders, driving significant demand and pushing the token’s price higher.
2. Whale Activity
Whale involvement has played a pivotal role in boosting SPX6900’s momentum. Onchain Lens recently reported that a whale wallet linked to "chartrapist.eth", a well-known figure in the crypto community, made a bold move by swapping $1.88 million USDC for 4.29 million SPX at an average price of $0.437. Such a substantial buy-in by a whale signals strong confidence from major players, attracting further attention to SPX.
What Is SPX6900?
SPX6900, which was launched just over a year ago, is a meme token with a unique ambition. Unlike traditional meme coins, SP:SPX aims to position itself as an index for meme coins, similar to how the S&P 500 serves as a barometer for the stock market. This innovative concept has resonated with the crypto community, helping SP:SPX garner a growing base of holders and driving its meteoric rise in recent weeks.
Holder Count Surge
The rapid growth of SPX6900’s holder base is another key indicator of its rising popularity. On September 9, 2024, the token had just **4,729 holders**. As of today, that number has almost doubled to 9,406 holders, highlighting the incredible level of interest in the project. This surge in the holder count reflects a strengthening community and growing demand for the token.
Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, SPX6900 is currently exhibiting strong bullish momentum. The token has broken key resistance levels and is now trading well above its all-time low of $0.0033, which it hit early in its existence. SPX is now at $0.507, continuing its relentless march upward after reaching a high of $0.52.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 63, indicating that while the token is nearing overbought territory, it still has room to grow. SP:SPX is also trading above key moving averages, a bullish reversal pattern that suggests the token may continue its upward trajectory. The sustained price action and technical signals point to further gains ahead, especially if the token can break above its recent high and hold those levels.
Strength and Market Sentiment
The combination of SPX’s strong whale activity, the excitement around its LBank listing, and the unique concept of becoming a meme coin index has propelled the token into the spotlight. Meme coins often rely heavily on community sentiment and viral momentum, and SPX6900 is no exception. The positive sentiment surrounding the token has been a major driving force behind its recent success.
However, it’s important to note that while SPX6900 ( SP:SPX ) has seen explosive gains, the meme coin space is notoriously volatile. Prices can swing dramatically in either direction based on market sentiment, whale activity, or news events. Investors are advised to proceed with caution, as the rapid price movement could result in sharp pullbacks.
Conclusion: A Meme Coin to Watch
SPX6900 ( SP:SPX ) has made an impressive mark on the crypto world, with its unique ambition to act as an index for meme coins, a growing holder base, and substantial whale backing. The token’s recent surge, fueled by its LBank listing and major buy-ins from whales, has put it on the radar of both retail investors and institutional players alike.
While the technical outlook remains bullish, and the fundamental factors driving SPX6900’s rise are strong, investors should approach with a measured level of caution. Meme coins can be extremely volatile, and despite the recent gains, market conditions can shift quickly. Those looking to invest should conduct thorough research and be prepared for the potential risks associated with meme coin trading.
For now, SPX6900 ( SP:SPX ) is riding high on a wave of excitement, and it remains one of the most promising meme coins in the market. Whether it can sustain this momentum in the long term will depend on its ability to continue attracting new holders, maintaining whale interest, and executing its vision of becoming the "S&P 500 of meme coins."
SPx / U.S. Jobs Data Sparks Rate Cut RethinkRates Rethink After Strong U.S. Jobs Data Could Disrupt Markets
The aftermath of unexpectedly robust U.S. employment figures could potentially upend various trades hinged on declining interest rates. Should this stronger-than-anticipated economic growth prompt a substantial reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s approach to cutting borrowing costs, investors may need to reconsider their positions significantly.
Technical Analysis:
The price is expected to consolidate within the range of 5732 and 5784 until a breakout occurs. A close below 5732 on the 1-hour or 4-hour chart is likely to trigger a decline towards 5708, with a further drop potentially reaching 5675.
Conversely, if a 4-hour candle closes above 5732, the price may advance to 5784, with stability above this level paving the way to 5840.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5732
Resistance Levels: 5749, 5784, 5820
Support Levels: 5708, 5675, 5643
Trend Outlook:
- Bearish below 5732
- Bullish above 5749
The key is whether it can rise above 5878.7-6119.3
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I think this is the first time I've written an idea for the SPX500USD futures chart.
I'll give you an example of how to actually use it using the parallel channel that I introduced.
No matter how good an indicator or chart tool is added, if you don't know how to use it, chart analysis can be done in the wrong direction, so it is recommended that you familiarize yourself with the core interpretation method and how to use it before using it.
There are many examples of how to draw a trend line or how to draw a parallel channel, so you need to study how to draw it.
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(SPX500USD 1M chart)
It is rising near the upper black line of the parallel channel.
Therefore, it is likely to face resistance near the black line and fall.
Accordingly, we need to check for support near 1 (5878.7) drawn with the right trend period Fibonacci Extension (Trend-Based Fib Extension) tool.
If it falls, we need to check if it can rise along the middle point (black dotted line) of the parallel channel.
However, since the section pointed to by the finger is an important support and resistance section, if it receives support near this section, it is highly likely that the upward trend will continue.
-
The left trend period Fibonacci Extension (Trend-Based Fib Extension) is drawn as the first rising wave on the 12M chart.
The trend-based Fibonacci extension on the right is drawn as the last rising wave on the 1M chart.
-
The section drawn as a square box corresponds to an important section among the Fibonacci ratios drawn on the chart, and when viewed as a parallel channel, it passes near the upper black line, so you can see that it corresponds to an important section.
-
(1D chart)
Since it is a futures chart, it is right to explain it on a time frame chart that can actually be traded, but since an idea can become useless as soon as time passes after publishing it, I will explain it based on the 1D chart.
I think the most important trend in futures trading is the trend of the 1D chart.
Therefore, when trading in the opposite direction of the trend of the 1D chart, you need to respond quickly and briefly.
-
A parallel channel was also drawn on the 1D chart.
The first point is designated as the point that is supported and rises from the middle point of the parallel channel drawn on the 12M chart, and the point that the finger points to is designated to draw the parallel channel.
The HA-MS indicator was used to draw the support and resistance points.
However, as shown in the chart above, the HA-MS indicator may be distracting when viewing the chart, so I am explaining it by disabling it.
-
The key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above 5741.6.
The 5741.6 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1D chart, meaning that anything above this point is in the high range.
Since the StochRSI indicator is currently in the oversold range, it is more likely to lead to an additional decline.
Therefore, if the price falls, the key is whether it can be supported near the middle point of the parallel channel on the 1D chart, which is the section indicated by the circle.
That said, I don't think it's a good idea to enter a sell (SHORT) position right now.
The reason is that the StochRSI indicator is in the oversold section.
Therefore, if you want to trade with a sell (SHORT) position through scalping and day trading, you need to respond quickly and quickly.
Although the StochRSI indicator has entered the oversold section, the BW indicator is still rising.
Therefore, you should consider that there is a high possibility of a fake or sweep that pretends to fall.
Therefore, in order to make a big profit with a sell (SHORT) position, the BW indicator should be in a horizontal line at the highest point (100) and the StochRSI indicator should be falling in the overbought section.
-
Have a nice time.
Thank you.
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2024-10-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears stuffed the bullish price action from Friday with a decent bear bar closing on it’s low. Markets continue in their respective trading ranges near the highs and the daily ema have held again. If bears can generate follow through selling tomorrow, the highs could be in for now and we could see a deeper pullback.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: 5750 - 5800 is my neutral range (written in my weekly update) and bears managed to get 5734 but could not close below the daily 20ema. To take control of the market, bears need follow through tomorrow below 5720 and a close below 5700 would be good for them. If they fail, bulls will buy it and we continue inside the range.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels : 5700 - 5850
bull case: Bulls have to stay above the daily 20ema or lose control, that’s their target for tomorrow. Since market is trading below the 1h 20ema, we will probably go more sideways during Globex and EU session before we see a bigger impulse again. Bulls still have the lower wedge bull trend line around 5700 and that would be their last stand before bears can take control and push this much lower again. Odds favor the bulls to stay above 5690 until we tested the trend line more than once. They rarely break on the second/third hit.
Invalidation is below 5690.
bear case: Bears want to trade below the daily ema and test the bull trend line around 5690-5700. We have spent enough time at the highs and a new impulse is around the corner. As of now I have no opinion where we might break out to. Bears can also make the case for a head & shoulders top and a measured move down would bring us to almost exactly the 50% pullback of the recent bull trend (5638ish). Coincidences eh.
Invalidation is above 5850.
short term: Neutral at the daily 20ema. It’s more reasonable to expect more sideways instead of a breakout. When it happens, watch for follow through before you join the trend.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect at least 5300 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day : Globex was bearish enough and once market traded below the 1h 20ema, it could not stay above it for long. Overall I’d say it was a tricky day. Shorting inside the trading range bar 30 - 45 was not a good trade since market just went up and down inside the tight range. Bears showed some strength with bars 45 and 47. Can you then reliably short on bar 50? I doubt it. To weak of a signal and you have the bar 18 low, so you would be shorting low in a potential trading range. Bar 53 was even worse to short, since it was a perfect double bottom with bar 18. Bar 54 was the bar that surely made the market always-in-short and 55 was the give up bar but then market printed one more strong bear bar and reversed for 11 points, trapping late bears.
S&P500: Identical so far with 2018/20. October rally possible.S&P500 just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.810, MACD = 53.820, ADX = 46.107) and that should give a new boost to the already bullish 1W timeframe (RSI = 63.805, MACD = 167.870, ADX = 40.687), which showcases the long term trend. And that long term price action can't be shown more effectively than on the 1W timeframe. We have spotted that the index is repeating the 2018-2020 trend.
Starting with a Channel Down under the 1D MA50, the index recovered massively and when it slowed down on a Channel Up, the 1W RSI turned ranged. We are now where the past fractal started rising aggressively again on the October 21st 2019 1W MACD Bullish Cross, as last week it completed a new such Cross. With the support of the 1W MA50, it is more likely now to see a strong rally to the 2.5 Fibonacci extension, where the 2020 fractal abruptly stopped with the COVID market meltdown, which is an event that can't be put into chart analysis.
This pattern shows that we have a clear target for early 2025 on the 2.5 Fib (TP = 6,500).
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ES levels and targets oct 7thLast week friday, I was expecting a rally to 5800+, and now we’re seeing the typical “Monday Morning Hangover” play out with the pullback I mentioned in the plan.
As of now: 5763 is weak support. We need to reclaim 5782 for buyers to push for 5796+. If 5763 fails, 5746-43 next down.
Full plan for today linked below
S&P bulls maintain control but no initiative yetLast week was characterized by controlled selling, with prices drifting down slowly as the market awaited the unemployment data released on Friday. As we can see on the daily chart, sellers were unable to close the day below the previous day's low, even after a significant sell-off on Tuesday. Once the unemployment data was published, alleviating concerns about a potential recession, the bulls regained control, and the week closed on a positive note.
The next key objective for buyers is to break through the resistance around 574.7 . Given that this level has been retested multiple times, it's unlikely to hold. However, we still need to closely monitor the price's reaction to this level and observe what happens immediately after the breakout.
The long-term outlook remains bullish. In the short term, there is still a high possibility that prices will continue consolidating within the 565–575 range , as the market remains influenced by political uncertainty in the U.S.
SPX: pricing the soft landingThe US equity markets were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. On one side there should be considered funds outflows to China's stocks, after the announcement of significant stimulus measures by their Government. In anticipation of non-farm payrolls data, the S&P 500 was traded with a negative sentiment, moving from the level of 5.760 down to 5.680. Still after a release of 254K of new jobs in the US economy in September, which was far above the market expectation, the optimism was back on the market. The Index ended the week at the level from the beginning of the week, 5.751. Majority of analysts are now in agreement that a soft landing for the US economy is the most likely scenario, and that the US economy is more resilient from their initial expectations.
Tech mega-cap companies were the ones that led the market to the upside on Friday's trading session, followed by companies from the financial sector. As per analysts, the financial sector is expected to gain during the following period, as an environment of decreased interest rates would support the credit activity. In this sense, JPMorgan and WellsFargo gained more than 3% for the week. Additional support for the index rally on Friday came from oil companies included in the S&P 500. Namely, as tensions in the Middle East continue, the price of oil has increased bringing companies within this sector higher by 7%.
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Oct 6th—> Oct 11th)Looking Ahead:
Next week will bring several key events:
Monday: Fed Speak; Nvidia AI Summit ( NASDAQ:NVDA )
Tuesday: PepsiCo Earnings ( NASDAQ:PEP )
Wednesday: Fed FOMC Minutes; 10-Year Bond Auction
Thursday: CPI Inflation, Jobless Claims; Tesla Robotaxi Event ( NASDAQ:TSLA )
Friday: PPI Inflation, Consumer Sentiment; Bank Earnings ( NYSE:JPM , NYSE:WFC , NYSE:BLK )
As we move forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
ES/SPX Plan For Oct 7thPlan for Monday:
Supports:
• 5796, 5783 (major), 5773-76 (major), 5764, 5758, 5751, 5745-40 (major), 5734, 5729, 5725, 5721 (major), 5716, 5711 (major), 5702-04 (major), 5697, 5694 (major), 5686, 5680, 5672 (major).
What I’m Watching:
• We had a big squeeze into the close, so now is not the best time to trade. After strong moves, both longs and shorts carry risks: chasing longs is risky under resistance, and shorts are against the trend, increasing the chance of consolidation. Sit back and let setups unfold.
• I typically wait for a volatility spike (like a dip) before new setups appear. With the close at 5805, there’s no immediate appeal in new trades. The first major support on Monday is 5783. I’m hesitant to buy first supports on Mondays due to the “Monday morning hangover effect,” especially after a strong Friday close, as ES often gives back gains on Monday. I’ll look for a reaction first. If intense selling occurs, I’ll wait for a flush and recovery above 5783 to long.
• The 5805 to 5740 range is a consolidation zone (flag). This could extend for days, so don’t be surprised if we retrace to bottom support Monday. If we lose 5783, we’ll likely work down the range. I’m not interested in bidding at 5764, but if there’s a flush to 5758 followed by a reclaim, I’d consider it. Below that, the 5740-45 zone could come back into play. A flush to 5740 early Monday could offer a final bid, but I’d prefer a test of that zone and a recovery of the session low at 5751 first. If 5740 breaks, I’d flip short as longs below become risky.
Resistances:
• 5805 (major), 5814 (major), 5821, 5828, 5839 (major), 5841, 5850 (major), 5860 (major), 5866, 5877 (major), 5881, 5885 (major), 5894, 5908 (major).
• As usual, I don’t short strength in ES. Maintaining a high win rate means avoiding setups with lower probabilities, aka fighting an uptrend. For those who do, 5805 would normally be a short spot, but it was just tested into the close, so be cautious. Above here, 5814 is another potential resistance, but if cleared, it’s clear blue skies to 5850 for buyers.
Buyer’s Case for Monday:
• The buyer’s case sees this flag breaking out. The broader structure is from 5805 to 5721, but a more actionable range is 5740-5805. If it holds, ES could break out to 5814, 5828, and eventually 5839+. The ultra-buyer’s case for Monday would see ES hold 5782 (perhaps undercut, but hold), ping-pong between 5782 and 5805, and attempt a direct breakout. Watch 5783 closely Monday.
Seller’s Case for Monday:
• The seller’s case begins with a break below 5740. Breakdown trades are tricky and often trap traders (80% of breakdowns fail). If you can’t tolerate these odds, it’s better to avoid them. I’d look for a test of 5740-45, which plays out for buyers before considering a short—likely around 5737 or lower. A failure at 5783 could also trigger shorts, but this is a more advanced trade. Ideally, we’d see a test of 5783 or a failed breakdown. After longs bounce, I’d short below that structure, probably near 5771.
Summary for Monday:
• The new consolidation range is 5805 to 5740-45. This could develop in various ways, but my lean is toward further filling out, meaning a pullback to start Monday, potentially to 5783. If buyers are motivated, that could be the lows, but if we lose 5783, a test of 5740-45 is likely. A breakout of the range targets new all-time highs. If 5740 fails, look for short opportunities.
Someone is lying...BTCUSD vs SPX performance, MAR-OCT 2024
Explanation: both BTC and SPX are risk-on category assets. Hence, according to the general rule, their performance should correlate. When their performance is not correlating, it can be seen as: a. an option of aquiring an under'performing asset, expecting additional profit b. a signal to a potential pivot of a neighbouring asset.
Predictive Correlation the SG10Y Bond Yields on S&P500I have posted about this correlation previously. Perhaps this time it might be clearer to see...
This uncanny correlation between the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields as a leading indicator for the S&P500 was noticed some time ago, and tested since.
As shown, the major turning points were seen in trend changes of the SG10Y GBonds first, before the S&P500 reacted. The vertical time markings show when you would short or long depending on the trend breakouts of the SG10Y GBonds (see lower panel, blue line),
Comcomitantly, comparing what happens from that point, you can see the S&P500 in the upper panel with yellow line.
The lowest panel is the MACD... and this shows the correlated pattern of a (lagging) technical indicator.
Since 2023, there are at least six instances with 100% hit rate.
Now... that brings us to TODAY.
It appears that we are given advance warning of the next couple of months.
For now, there should be a quick pop up to the very recent high followed by a failure of support in the S&P500; and then the expected trends should play out...
S&P 500 Index Market Exposure and Sector Insights The S&P 500 Index is currently in a confirmed uptrend as of October 4th, maintaining support above its 21-Day Moving Average (DMA) . With 4 distribution days , market conditions suggest some caution, but the overall uptrend remains intact.
Our current market exposure is recommended at 100% , reflecting confidence in the strength of the broader market.
Key Points:
Market Condition: The S&P 500 remains above the critical 21-DMA level, indicating continued positive momentum. This key support should be monitored in the coming sessions for signs of potential changes in market direction.
Industry Strength: Strong sectors include Technology and Communication Services , with leading stocks showing resilience. Weaker sectors such as Utilities and Consumer Staples are underperforming, with multiple stocks trading below their 50-DMA and 200-DMA .
Opportunities: Leading stocks continue to demonstrate setups for potential gains, with key players in the Tech sector showing strong bases or breakout potential. We advise focusing on high-quality setups in stronger sectors while avoiding underperforming segments trading below critical moving averages.
The key takeaway here is to remain invested in leading areas while keeping an eye on market exposure and distribution day count for any shifts in sentiment.
Let us know—are you focusing on defensive sectors, or do you see opportunities in growth industries?
Disclaimer: The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you could lose some or all of your investment. Always do your own research and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
ES targets Oct 4th // NFP at 8:30All week, only one level really mattered in ES: 5740, which has tested or trapped below 13 times now. I was looking for another rally to 5754, 5763+, and we’ve hit those levels.
As of now: NFP at 8:30. Protect gains. 5744/5734 must hold on any NFP dips to keep 5782 and 5805 in play. If 5734 fails, 5721 and 5702 next down
Bearish Pressure Builds Amid Middle East Tensions, Targets 5675Middle East uncertainty after Iran attack makes for tricky trading
Beyond tensions in the Middle East, there are several potential catalysts that could keep investors on edge, including the upcoming U.S. election in November and a key jobs report this week that will help shape the Fed's policy direction.
Technically:
The price has reached our target and continues to decline towards 5675 and 5643 while remaining below 5713 and 5732.
To shift to a bullish trend, the price must break above 5732.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5715
Resistance Levels: 5732, 5784, 5820
Support Levels: 5675, 5643, 5584
Trend Outlook:
Bearish while under 5732
previous idea:
AAPL: 25% Correction / Liquidity Gap at $175🔸Hello traders, today let's review 12H price chart for AAPL/Apple.
This is advanced technical trade setup based on historic price fractal.
🔸AAPL currently entering distribution at the top stage with
distribution defined by the ABCD fractal. Same price fractal
was observed in the market in Dec21/Jan22 before a subsequent 25%
market correction in AAPL.
🔸ABCD ongoing distribution defined by range highs at 230 USD
and range lows at 205 USD. Once we complete the ABCD structure
expect a sharp mark-down in price / correction from point D into
point E near 175 USD liquidity gap / open gap will drag price down.
🔸Recommended strategy AAPL traders: Advanced traders may
short AAPL / buy May 2025 LEAP put options. No valid strategy
currently for the bulls, it's best to wait until liquidity gap gets filled
later in Q1/Q2 2025 before buying low at/near 175 usd.
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Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.