SPX Will Grow! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,865.92.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,134.21 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Replace a 100 000 USD salary with income from trading🔸 Develop a Strong Foundation in Forex Trading
Before considering Forex as a full-time source of income, it’s essential to build a solid foundation in trading.
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SP500 Secondary Trend. Bowl + handle. Resistance zone. 11 2023Logarithm. Large timeframe 1 week. On the chart a big bowl, you can say already with a handle, the price is testing the resistance of the previous market highs for the 3rd time (entering this zone). Breaking through it, this resistance will become a very strong support during the pumping (probability no more).
Simplifying the complex is the key to success.
Complicating the simple is a guarantee for your own confusion and mistakes on the plain.
It is based on knowledge and experience, which always leads to simplification of actions, not to complication !!!!
The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.
The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.
1️⃣ The increase in % rates will stop closer to the US presidential election, which is logical.
2️⃣ Before elections, the ruling party always shows the people the positive in its work for the people, even if there is none, i.e. injects money into the economy.
3️⃣ Handing out "free money" to potential voters before elections. Who will take it to the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
4️⃣ Changing the bear market cycle to a conventionally bullish one in 2024 and a bullish one in 2025.
5️⃣ Overcoming previous all-time highs, this is the third time we have tested this resistance of the SP500 index.
In other words, everything is as always. Before the elections, “everyone is good” and is pushing the economy up. USA together with the Fed. Only the so-called “black swan” can influence this, whether it is real (there are no such things) or staged, it doesn’t really matter. But, this is all a hypothetical probability, nothing more, which must always be kept in mind. Therefore, when the market rises, protect your profits with stop losses or hedge with correlated positions. As a rule, nothing happens, and if it does, the event itself is always inflated by the media and bloggers tens of times in importance, thereby creating the illusion of fear. Don't fall for such tricks, either.
The present, and especially the future, is not always a projection of a repetition of the past. It may be conditionally the same, but the details are radically different. This must always be remembered.
On linear, it looks like this:
The main trend of the index More than 100 years for clarity. Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. The whole trend. Anniversary 100 years
Vertical growth by +372% (madness, super pump)
Before the super collapse of the “Great Depression” Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69
The game controls the people, not the people the game. The concept of a lot is always replaced by a little, a little more, until all their expectations “burst” from greed. This encourages some to become wiser, some, on the contrary, the closer the abyss, the cuter the devils.
Can NVDA hit 200 USD in Q1 2025?🔸Time to update the NVDA trade setup, previously was expecting
a correction in this market, based on fundamentals we are definitely
overextended, however NVDA so far is trading purely based on momentum
ignoring the fundumentals. It's the star stock of the 2024 stock market.
🔸Previous strong uptrend, we broke above key psychological S/R at 100 usd. Right now we got a compression setup, expecting limited upside / pullback heading into US elections, having said that probably any downside beyond 115/120 usd is very limited. current floor set at 100/110 USD.
🔸Compressing into wedge formation, most likely we will break out
to the upside following a shallow pullback in November 2024.
Also November/December is a very strong seasonal period for US stock
market, so it's really hard to recommend short selling NVDA.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting pullback near 114/118 USD
in November going into elections, limited downside beyond 110 USD.
BUY/HOLD near 114/118 TP bulls is 200 USD, which is almost 75% upside.
Most likely we will reach target somewhere in Q1 2025, probably January.
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Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TSLA Best Level to BUY/HOLD 30% gains ABCD fractal🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour price chart for TSLA.
Recently we gapped down back into trading range, based on previous
update I still maintain neutral outlook until we complete the
re-accumulation structure, details see idea below.
🔸Having said that I'm expecting a decent 30% bounce in TSLA based
on the ABCD price fractal. ABCD fractal from 2023 projected into
the current market structure, point D expected near 188 usd timewise
most likely December/January. This will be a good reload for the bulls.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: Bulls wait for pullback to complete
near 188 / point D and BUY/hold for a 30% bounce play. Exit/TP at 250 USD.
good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
SPX500 at Resistance: Breakout Potential or Reversal Ahead?S&P500 INDEX
The price is in a consolidation zone near the resistance level of 5,891.1. If it breaks above this zone, the next resistance target is around 5,950.
If it fails to break through the resistance, a pullback is likely, targeting the support area around 5,863 and potentially dropping further towards 5,781 if bearish momentum continues.
Best Direction:
Bullish: If the price breaks and holds above 5,891.1, this would indicate further upward potential.
Bearish: If the price fails to break above 5,891.1 and reverses, a short-term downward move toward the support levels is anticipated.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5891 - 5863
Resistance Levels: 5891, 5915, 5939
Support Levels: 5836, 5807, 5759
Trend Outlook:
Bearish below 5863
Bullish above 5891
2024-10-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears hoped for a second leg down and build decent selling pressure but bulls bought the dip. Nothing unexpected and we likely continue sideways at the highs until bears give up again or more bulls get exhausted and want to secure profits. Technically I expect another leg down but we could retest the highs first. Don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
comment: 5850 was the low yesterday and bears could not break below. Weak bears gave up and we closed around the 50% pullback from Tuesday’s selling. Where does this leave us? Nowhere. 5890ish is the worst place to trade now because it’s the exact mid point of this trading range. Wait for strong momentum or until we reach one of the extremes again. These bullish earnings should have taken the market higher by now if you ask me. So there is a decent chance we are forming a credible top. 5850 - 5920 is the current range and until we see the MAG7 earnings, it probably won’t break out of it.
current market cycle: bull trend (bull wedge)
key levels: 5850 - 5920
bull case: Bulls bought the dip, no surprise there. They want 5900+ next and they will probably continue to buy 5850. No more magic to this. Since it was a bullish close, bulls are very slightly favored higher tomorrow but I would not buy 5886 right now.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Bears tried and failed. They have to make the market more neutral and trade sideways until more bulls want out of their position. BTFD is still strong. Anything above 5850 is bullish and bears have to scalp. Earnings will probably set the next impulse to either side.
Invalidation is above 5920.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Long the double bottom with yesterday’s low. Very obvious trade that worked greatly.
SPX500 Pattern Repeating with EERIE overlayThe REAL S&P500 Index is plotted here from the data on SP:SPX and FRED:CPIAUCSL which is CPI-All Urban Consumers which allows us to see the "REAL", or inflation-adjusted S&P500 (excluding dividends) over the long term.
Most people forget the impact that inflation has on the price of stocks because it gets complicated and small increases in price compound significantly over the the long term.
So, to get down to the impact of this pattern that I have reported on several times in the past (see links below), the market has had a long sequence of progress along with crises along the way in the form of financial panics, tax-law changes, banking system stress, real estate market collapses, trade wars and technological innovation cycles.
To break it down into the pattern, take a note of the 1955-1985 time frame and notice how there is a "mode" across that time frame which touches 13 different years.
In 1984 the market "expands" upwards as denoted by the yellow triangle, surging up by more than the previous year's range, which implies the start of a new trend. In this case, the trend is estimated to be 13 years because 13 years touched the same price. 1984 + 13 years sets up a new mode in 1997 which is where the new mode formed through 2012.
In 2013, the market surged upwards or "expanded" higher to indicate a new 11 year uptrend since there were 11 different years that touched the mode as shown.
The INTERESTING PART is that we had similar types of activities AFTER this new trend kicked off: Notice the yellow circle which encompasses the 1987 stock market crash and 1990 bear market in a wild, sideways, choppy market environment.
The same thing also happened after the current uptrend started with the 2016 election, 2020 covid crisis and even later the 2022 bear market (which is outside the circle).
The GREEN "BARS PATTERN" is a copy of the 1984-current market and then pasted to the start of the same structure in 2013 where the current uptrend started from the 'mode'.
Look how the market has moved rather in-synch with this pattern and I haven't even adjusted it for the 2-less years at the mode or 4 less years overall for the pattern from 1955-1984 (20 total years vs 13 years at one price) vs the 1997-2012 (16 total years vs 11 at one price).
We can start analyzing similar news and technological changes to look for interesting stories to compare the two time frames. See what you can find.
The AI craze now is certainly similar to the development of the internet bubble in the late 1990's. We have certainly heard this comparison before but this nails down the comparison into a more structural pattern that can be analyzed and used for making general projections.
I'll follow up on this and let me know if you have any questions.
Tim
10/16/2024 10:19AM EST
S&P500 If it holds this level, it can rise up to 6050.The S&P500 index (SPX) had a strong short-term pull-back yesterday, which is so far contained within the tight levels of a Channel Up pattern. The price is right at the bottom of it and if it holds, we can expect a strong rally continuation for the next 2 weeks, going into the U.S. elections.
This sequence is so far similar to the previous Channel Up patterns that emerged after the price broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Once broken, it held right until their tops, which were after a +6.50% rise.
This is why, if this holds once more, we expect to see 6050 (+6.50% from the bottom) by the end of the month.
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S&P500 Channel Up on 1hour reached its bottom.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up on the 1hour timeframe.
The price crossed today under the 1hour MA50 and reached the Channel's bottom.
This is where the two bottoms prior where priced.
As long as it holds, buy and target 5930 (+1.88% rise, same as the previous bullish legs).
Previous chart:
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S&P 500 (SPX) Hits All Targets! Bullish Rally CompletesThe S&P 500 Index has shown strong bullish momentum, with the long trade successfully reaching all profit targets.
Key Levels
Entry: 5719.98 – The long position was entered as the price broke above this level, confirming bullish sentiment.
Stop-Loss (SL): 5703.41 – Positioned below recent support to protect against potential downside risk.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 5740.45 – The first target was hit, confirming the upward momentum.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 5773.57 – The second target was achieved as the bullish trend continued.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 5806.70 – The third target was reached, indicating continued strength in the market.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 5827.17 – The final profit target was reached, marking a highly successful long trade.
Trend Analysis
The price is well above the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating a strong bullish trend. The steady upward movement suggests that the market sentiment is favorable for further gains, although all targets have been hit, marking the trade's conclusion.
The long trade on the S&P 500 Index successfully hit all profit targets, with the final target at 5827.17 signaling a strong rally. The upward momentum was supported by the Risological Dotted trendline, reflecting solid market conditions for bullish trades.
BRIEFING Week #41 : Time to be a ContrarianHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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2024-10-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - In my weekly post yesterday I wrote “max bullish” a couple of times and I hope you did not short this today. Bulls are in absolute control and they have no reason to stop buying every small dip. You can not be a bear on the hope that this madness will stop eventually. It can go much further than you can imagine. Strong day, strong close, can only expect higher prices until bears print consecutive big bear bars on higher time frames. My best guess is still a blow-off top this week, which can mark the top before we see a bigger correction. Today felt like we are already in it.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Break above both bull wedges. Could this be a bull trap? I highly doubt that. 6000 will very likely be hit this year.
current market cycle: max bullish
key levels: 5860 - 6000
bull case: Bulls are in full control and we can only expect higher prices, given the strength of this follow through buying. We have a small channel which will likely break overnight and the next bull trend line is around 5890 already and aligns nicely with the 1h 20ema. Next obvious target is 6000.
Invalidation is below 5880.
bear case: Nothing really. Can they prevent 6000? Doubt it. Can they get a deeper pullback before we get there? Also doubt that. Anything below 5880 would surprise me. If they get it, 5850 is their next target and bigger support.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Bullish af. Don’t look for shorts. Buy on pullbacks when bulls come around again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Globex oscillated around last week’s close and after bar 10 it could not even touch the 15m 20ema again. Could have bought anywhere and made money except 15m before US close.
S&P500 Major bullish break out took placeThe S&P500 index broke above the Rising Resistance that was the top trendline of the Rising Wedge.
This transitions the price action from that pattern to the Channel Up, which has significant upside potential at the moment.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6080 (+7.25% rise, same as the last rally).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is overbought so expect the momentum to turn sideways for some days but that doesn't mean that the uptrend will stop. Similar thing happened during the previous bullish wave.
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xauusd h1 short from resistance tp 2635 usd🔸Hello traders, today let's review 1hour price chart for gold. Strong
V-shape recovery in progress off the recent lows, however heavy
overhead resistance will trigger a pullback from S/R levels overhead.
🔸Strong resistances at 2665 and 2675. key S/R bulls at 2635 usd.
currently getting overextended so it's recommended to focus on
short selling rips/rallies from overhead resistance.
🔸Recommended strategy bears: short sell from overhead resistances near 2665/75 SL 2680 USD TP 2635 usd. usd fixed stop loss for this entry at 2680 usd, swing trade setup may take more time to hit target. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Also max bullish. Bulls closed 8 points below the ath. Strong buy signal going into next week but the issue (again) is that you are buying above the bigger bull wedge and at the very high of a nested one. Waiting for a pullback to go long is the much more reasonable trade instead of buying near 5860. The wedge has room to 5900, so 6000 is a valid year end target. Bear case begins below 5750. 5800-5850 is neutral.
Quote from last week:
comment: Much bigger range than the previous week with wild moves the whole week. Bears sold it with spikes, followed by bulls who bought every dip. End result was 5800 again and now what? We are near the ath and can easily make a new one. The high was also high enough to count as a decent lower high and we sell off from here. Given the strong bull bar on Friday, we have to give the higher odds to the bulls to get follow through above and we will probably make a new ath.
comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5750 - 5900
bull case: Bulls want 5900 and have all the arguments on their side. That still does not make buying 5859 a good buy. It’s possible that bulls break above both wedges and continue for 5900 and much higher, is it likely though? I doubt it.
What, no more text? We have two perfectly fitting patterns and are trading at the very highs. I have given precise invalidation prices. Don’t think more words will make this better. Just as more trades probably won’t make you more money. Quality over quantity.
Invalidation is below 5750.
bear case: Bears have nothing until they close below 5750. We are at the highs but so what? 5 Consecutive weekly bull bars say it all. Don’t look for shorts when bears do not make money other than scalping on time frames below 15m. When these two wedges break below, we will see a decent correction again and it’s possible over the next weeks but as of right now, bears are in pain and nothing else.
Invalidation is above 5910.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 5750 - 5850, big range but we are in the middle of that given range and both sides have reasonable arguments. If bulls get follow through above 5800, long scalps are a decent trade for 5830 or a bit higher. Right now I would not trade it.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5800 and now we are at 5859. Neutral range but I wrote above 5800 a long is good for 30 points or more. Good outlook.
short term : Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update : None
S&P uptrend continues as the market cheers strong earningsLast week, the bulls finally gained the conviction needed for a breakout. Fueled by strong banking earnings, the market has moved upward from its trading range, reaffirming the long-standing uptrend.
Both the short- and long-term outlooks remain bullish. More earnings reports are set to be released next week, but unless there are significant surprises, nothing is expected to change.
Combined US Equities Breakout late OctoberVery quickly, the expected breakdown did not happen, and this week saw the an across the board bullish breakout. Noted the breakout is long in the teeth (old and late) and while bullish, it is not strong nor convincingly sustainable. Reminiscent of this expectation is the MACD and VolDiv looking lackluster.
Expected top marked, and after 21 Oct needs a review... that would be the projected resistance for a stronger pullback.
Bullish for now and the week ahead.
Enjoy, make hay while the sun shines!
Swing Trade Opportunity - LONG WBAWBA has broken a long term downtrend line, creating a potential inverse HS in the process.
This company is due for a bounce at the very least.
Best case for longs is a longer term bottom and reversal being put in that can take us to the 200DMA or above.
See video for details
Looking For Next Market Top AgainLooking for next top
Submillennium 1
Grand Supercycle 5 - green
Supercycle 1
Cycle 5 - orange
Primary 5 - blue
Intermediate 5 - pink
Minor 5 - yellow
Minute 5 - green
I will try to find the next top off simply modified wave theory.
First we need to set the baseline. I prefer the chart SPX500USD as it encompasses 23 hour trading during the week and can capture movement not always distinguishable in the SP:SPX chart.
My first step is always to identify the location of wave 3 (if it exists). I do this by using my Elliott Wave 3 Finder v2 in conjunction with my RSI triple confirm indicator and a simple RSI 9.
My wave 3 indicator will have a painted background at potential wave 3 locations, blue background for bearish reversals and pink for bullish reversals. My triple confirm RSI should signal in conjunction with the actual wave 3 point, red for bearish reversals and green for bullish reversals. My wave 3 indicator tends to spot wave 3 of 3 by displaying a gap between painted backgrounds. These indicators signal upon market close and are not considered finalized signals until the next bar begins.
My baseline is in the 2 month chart. I have worked through the historical SPX chart and believe we are in the fifth and final wave (Grand Supercycle 5) of a larger structure (Sub Millennium 1) that began in the 1800s. This specific wave 5 began at the market bottom in 2009, and we are only in the first (Supercycle 1) of five waves to the upside. I do not expect a catastrophic market top for many decades to come.
This chart picks up around 2004 to the current time. We are likely in Cycle wave 5 which began at the market low in October 2022. I have determined Cycle wave 3 to have ended at the peak at the beginning of 2022 based on the wave 3 indicator and RSI agreeing on a reversal point. In the moment, I would not have agreed the market topped in January 2022 as the indicators were still signaling. It is only on the preceding bar not producing a signal that an event is confirmed. Next I will determine common wave extensions off (Fibonacci levels) of Cycle wave 3's movement which began at the low in January 2016 at 1,806.25 and ended at 4,820.20 in January 2022. Wave 3 moved 3,013.95 points. Cycle wave 5 could move 123.6% to 138.2% of Wave 3's movement. These means a potential endpoint is between 5,531.49-5,971.53. This will be the orange outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
Next I will try to identify a current Primary wave 3 inside of Cycle wave 5. My indicators point to Primary wave 3 ending around the mid-July 2024 on the 2-day chart based on the gap in the wave 3 indicators. There is not an RSI 3 signal in the 2-day chart for Primary wave 3, but there was one for Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3 in Primary wave 3 around February 12, 2024. We can attempt to confirm this by seeing where the end of Intermediate wave 5's movement extended too. If Intermediate wave 3 began January 5, 2024 and ended March 29, 2024, Intermediate wave 5 topped close to 161.8% of Intermediate wave 3's movement as seen below:
Based on this assumption, Primary wave 3 was likely over by mid-July 2024. The next Fibonacci wave extension levels for Cycle wave 5 could see this wave end between 108-123.6% of Primary wave 3's movement. This places a potential top between 5,806.48-6,052.34. This will be the light blue outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
We will next move inside of Primary wave 5 which possibly began at the low from the beginning of August 2024. In looking for Intermediate wave 3 inside of Primary wave 5, the indicators point to Minor wave 3 of Intermediate wave 3 occurring on September 19, 2024 and the Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 3 occurring on September 13. If we find the Intermediate wave 5 extension from this Intermediate wave 3, a potential top sits between 5,816.26-5,936.51. This will be the pink outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
Next we try to identify where we are in Intermediate wave 5. The 2-hour chart here indicates a possible Minor wave 3 occurring on October 9, 2024. A possible Minor wave 5 extension from here is a top between 5,825.38-5,868.50. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above.
We can attempt to go a final level deeper inside of Minor wave 5. We currently have Minute wave 3 indications based on the high from earlier today at 5826.90. If this is the end of Minute wave 3, Minute 5 could top between 5,834.16-5,857.61. This will be the yellow outlined box in the following charts and the main chart above. Based on a this wave set being over a small timeframe, this top could happen before next Tuesday. This is zone of interest for a near-term top.
This is purely theoretical, but Israel will likely strike at Iran soon. Iran has claimed they would respond quickly, but the prior instances saw long delays in the response. If Iran has an immediate response, a full on conflict would be underway in the Middle East. Not all wars are bad, but this one would likely impact oil and depending on the duration likely impact economies around the world. A contained conflict between a few nations likely would not spiral into a larger conflict, however, strong alliances on other side could turn this into a much greater event, closer to a world war situation. As drastic as this is, it could explain a potential near-term top. If conflict does not break out, we will likely see a short-term market top before continued movement higher and higher. Time will tell. Enjoy!