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SPX (S&P 500 Index)

Rate Cut Incoming. Buckle Up"What the Yield Curve and Fed Moves Mean for Your Next Trade." Historically, when the Federal Reserve lowers the federal funds rate while the yield spread is negative (also known as an inverted yield curve), it has often been an indicator of an impending market correction or recession. Let’s break this down: Historically, the bond market is a key indicator. Typically, long-term bonds offer higher yields than short-term bonds; This a healthy sign. When that flips and short-term yields surpass long-term ones, we get what’s called an inverted yield curve. This inversion signals that investors are getting nervous about the near-term economy. When the Fed then steps in to lower rates, they’re trying to stimulate growth, but it often comes too late. Looking back at past events: The dot-com crash of 2000: The yield curve inverted, the Fed cut rates, and a 35% market correction followed. The 2008 financial crisis: Again, the yield curve inverted, rates were cut, and the market saw a major downturn exceeding 50%. Going back even further, the same pattern held in the 1970s and 1980s. The big questions are: Why does this combination signal trouble? Will this pattern repeat itself again? While history tends to repeat itself, the data shows that when the Fed cuts rates with a negative yield spread, market corrections often follow. The inverted curve suggests tighter credit conditions, reduced lending, and lack of confidence, all piling on top of one another creating a recipe for disaster. Stepping back even further, we see that investor sentiment and the bond market tend to lead the way. Credit tightens, and companies cut back on spending. Another a perfect recipe for an economic slowdown and market drop. It's a familiar cycle. So lets buckle up.
TVC:DJIShort
by oh92
1
S&P500 Extremely well supported. This uptrend will continue.Just 6 days ago (September 10, see chart below) we gave the most optimal medium-term buy signal on S&P500 index (SPX) as the price tested and held the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level: The price rebounded strongly and is imitating the 0.5 Fib bounces of the previous 12 months that all started very strong rallies (+10.50% the weakest!). This week we would like to go back to our long-term perspective on the wider time-frames (1W on this chart) as ahead of the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday, we expect very high volatility that might cloud investor thinking and confidence to a strong degree. There is no reason to diverge from our long-term bullish outlook (yet) as the index remains extremely well supported on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was approached on August's low and was last time tested (and held) a year ago (October 23 2023). A Higher Highs trend-line guides S&P to higher prices, similar to every such trend-line since 2016. The 1W RSI has started to form a Bearish Divergence, which was effective only in early 2022 and the start of the Inflation Crisis. As long as the 1W MA50 holds, the Sine Waves show that this uptrend is far from over. Technically we should now see a continuation to around 5800 - 6000 and then a new medium-term correction. Our long-term Target is 6500, which based on the progressive nature of cyclical rises within this pattern (+63.50% then 105.00%), seems a modest one. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
SP500 Can Break To All-Time Highs After A Triangle ConsolidationBack in August the SP500 turned down for a deeper correction back to 5k area, at the same time when drop on all major indexes and some big cap names were pretty aggressive. However, there was a huge spike in VIX (not shown on this chart), so it must have been a lot of fear involved, which after initial selling shows extreme pessimism and that's when the market tends to stabilize, when least expected. Well, what is most important is that we have seen some stabilization through most of the second part of August, but notice that the index did not reach new highs; it turned down at the start of the September, after moving up to 5655 area. So, we think that recent drop to 5400 area is actually subwave (C), ideally part of a complex correction, possibly a triangle in wave 4. Especially because of a recent turn up, that looks like a wave (D), so be aware of a slowdown in wave (E), which is still missing based on basic structure of a triangle pattern. Anyhow, we think that sooner or later index will break to a new highs, ideally after FED rate decision.
SP:SPXLong
by ew-forecast
NAS100 Technical Analysis and Trade Idea (NASDAQ)👀 👉 Here's my take on the current NAS100 (NASDAQ) situation: The S&P 500 index is exhibiting clear signs of smart money influence. We're seeing a calculated manipulation of price action, with recent moves targeting a previous range high followed by an expansion to the downside. This pattern suggests institutional players are strategically positioning themselves for a potential bearish move. ## Interest Rate Speculation and Stop Hunting The market's reaction to rumors of lower interest rates has created a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. This rally has likely triggered a cascade of stop losses, setting the stage for a potentially significant sell-off. Such price action often precedes larger market moves, as it clears out weak hands and creates liquidity for larger players. ## Seasonal Considerations Historically, mid-September has been a bearish period for the S&P 500. This seasonal tendency aligns with our current technical setup, adding weight to the bearish thesis. It's crucial to note that while seasonality isn't deterministic, it can provide an edge when combined with other technical factors. ## Technical Outlook The daily chart shows bearish divergence on key momentum indicators. The MACD is displaying a bearish crossover, while the RSI, currently at 67.35, suggests there's ample room for downside before reaching oversold conditions . The index is also approaching overbought territory on the Stochastic oscillator, further supporting a potential reversal . ## Trade Strategy Given this confluence of factors, my bias is decidedly bearish. I'm looking to initiate short positions targeting previous support levels. Key resistance to watch is around 5,624, which aligns with recent pivot points . For entry, I'll be watching for a break and retest of the current range lows, potentially around the 5,618 level . Remember, while this analysis provides a strong directional bias, always manage your risk carefully. The S&P 500 can be volatile, especially during periods of economic uncertainty. Position sizing and well-placed stops are crucial for long-term trading success. 📉✅
FX:SPX500Short
by fxtraderanthony
7
2024-09-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Since today was a very slow day, my weekly update is more interesting than today’s daily update (in case you haven’t read it). Indexes - Disappointment for the bulls was my assumption for today and that we got. Boring sideways movement in tight trading ranges. DJI was the only market with strength, printing a new ath but closing below 41700, so probably mostly a liquidity grap. Wednesday we have FOMC and I don’t expect markets to move far away from their current ranges. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small green doji on the daily chart. Not much to comment about. Market closed 11 points above the open price and mean reversion was profitable today. I expect the triangle on the daily to hold until FOMC. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 -5670 bull case: Please see my weekly update. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears got 1 decent bear bar on the 1h chart and bulls bought it. Until bears can print 3-4 consecutive bear bars on the 1h tf, they have nothing going for them. Best they can hope for is to stay below 5670 Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Neutral between 5600-5670 and I don’t expect a break of this range until FOMC. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying bar 39 low was perfect but any bar from 39-46 was ok. Market clearly did not want to go lower then open price is always an obvious magnet on ranging days.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
S&P500: This rally has just started.The S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.284, MACD = 37.100, ADX = 31.869) and is testing the 5,680 ATH R1 level. This is the 4H timeframe and as you see the current rebound was achieved on the 4H MA200. The 4H RSI is on the same levels as May 7th 2024 and November 3rd 2023, which were consolidations before a major Channel Up formation. Our Target is in tact (TP = 6,000). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
3
Comprehensive Analysis of Chevron (CVX) - 16/09/2024Chevron (CVX) is an established energy company listed in the S&P 500 index. Technical Analysis: I use moving averages as zones rather than lines. On the weekly chart, I applied the 200 EMA and 200 SMA, shading the area between them in orange to create a moving average zone. Currently, prices are finding support in this zone on the weekly chart. Additionally, the $140 level acts as a demand zone and creates confluence. On the daily chart, the ATR-based Keltner Channels are touching the lower band, indicating that downside volatility has reached its natural limits. There is also a bullish order block present. On the 4-hour chart, I use the Inverse Fisher RSI. It filters out noise and provides fewer false signals compared to the standard RSI. On the 1-hour chart, there is a noticeable decline in volume. Remember, without volume, it is difficult to break through support or resistance levels. From a technical standpoint, different timeframes are giving BUY signals. Fundamental Analysis: The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.81, which is considered normal for the sector. In the last quarter, Chevron reported total revenue of $49.66 billion and a net profit of $4.43 billion, resulting in a 9% profit margin, which meets my no-loss rule. Chevron has strong return on equity, and growth continues. Its current ratio is 1.16, meaning its short-term assets exceed its liabilities, indicating financial stability. The price-to-book ratio is 1.60, which is excellent for a company of this size. Chevron's total assets stand at $260 billion, while total liabilities are around $100 billion, meaning the company's debt-to-assets ratio is 38.51%, which is highly acceptable. The company’s annual dividend yield is 4.55%, providing a potential bonus for long-term investors. With CVX trading near its 52-week low and showing positive signals, it could be a good choice for portfolio managers.
NYSE:CVXLong
by Trader-Berke
SPx / US Investors Eye Fed as Larger Rate Cut LoomsUS Equity Investors Focus on Monetary Policy as Larger Rate Cut Becomes Likely Scenario This week, U.S. equity investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's commentary and interest rate forecasts, with a 50 basis-point cut now emerging as the most probable policy move. According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis-point cut on September 18 has surged to 59% as of early Monday, up from 30% a week ago, following the inflation data released on September 11 and 12. The remaining 41% likelihood now points to a 25 basis-point cut, down from 70% the previous week. S&P 500 Technical Analysis: As long as the price trades under 5643 will drop to get 5584, Otherwise should break 5643 by closifn 4h candle above it to get 5675 and more, Key Levels: Pivot Line: 5616 Resistance Levels: 5643, 5675, 5709 Support Levels: 5600, 5584, 5525 Trend: - Consolidation 5643 - 5584 - Upward above 5643 - Downward below 5628
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
S&P bulls regain control, aiming for the new highAfter the major sell-off in the first week of September, the market has made a U-turn, rebounding to its previous highs. This outcome was anticipated as highly likely in my last review, though, as is often the case, the market exceeded boldest expectations. Currently, we have confirmed a weekly higher low, which provides a solid foundation for the continuation of the uptrend. It’s also worth noting that the rally is being driven by risk-on assets like XLK and XLY, reflecting growing investor confidence. The mid- and long-term outlook remains bullish, though heightened volatility is expected as we approach the US elections. Important levels: 539.4 - major weekly low. Bulls must protect this level to keep uptrend intact 565.2 – major monthly high. There might be some resistance at this level. Bulls must clear it for uptrend continuation. FOMC meeting is set for Wednesday but it is not expected to bring big surprises.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support. Current flip to Bullish Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure) Watch these week's price action...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
SPX direction after first and last FED rate cutsThis chart compares FED rate cuts to SPX chart. The last 3 times after the first rate cuts there was a slight upward rally of the SP500 of about 5-10%, before going on a bearish retrace of about -40%, -50% & -20%, and then bottoming out only AFTER the final rate cut. Based on this, if history repeats, there might be a year end upward movement in the stock market, perhaps followed by a retrace through 2025 until the final rate cut. And then massively up from there again. The last 3 times rate cuts did not mean sp500 starts going up immediately. There was a retrace instead. SP500 went up only AFTER the final rate cut.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by strip
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400. Quote from last week: comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 - 5700 bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. → Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook. short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Market Indecision 2024! (Diamond Reversal)It has been an interesting few years in the markets. One of the hottest bull runs coming off the Pandemic lows to a 7 month bear market in 2022, followed by another epic bull run! We are now at a major decision point for markets. Up or Down! Recession fears abound while small caps are ready to pop waiting on rate cuts. The S&P as lopsided as ever with Mag 7 carrying the entire index for 2 years. Where are we going next? At every "potential" market top, the convergence between an ascending channel meets a potential descending channel forming a diamond shaped pattern. This pattern is the indecision point of any given market, but don't get bearish yet. A diamond reversal pattern can break in either direction, reversal or continuation . I have documented both the historical moves and the future potential paths. Remember that markets are not pre-ordained to do anything. They have to make decisions, and while you may have already decided your personal view, you can let the market confirm your biases one step at a time. React! Don't predict! 1) Halfway mark from 10/23 run to $6000 target -4/19 bottom starts 2nd leg -Bull Flag Consolidation 2) Diamond Reversal (Minor) -Rate cuts? Yes/No -And Why? Economy vs Inflation **Upside Breakout on 9/13 3) Rate cuts hinted for Sep FOMC -Halted 38% run from 10/23 -Halted 62% run from 10/22 4) Required drop to form minor/major diamond of indecision. -Blamed on Japanese Carry Trade* -Note the drop is perfect 78.6% retrace from 4/19 Run *Japanese Carry Trade margin collapse was instead caused by formation. **This was also opportunistic early rotation into treasuries. 5) Bullish rejection of minor diamond -Resilient CPI and Jobs provide cover for soft landing narrative. -Note the rejection confirms on diamond neutral line @ 38.2% 4/19 fib and healthy 20WMA bounce 6) Rate Cuts!!! -Rate cut odds are near equal between .25 vs .50 -Note a rejection confirms Double Top -Breakout confirms $6000 7) Blow off top!!! -Note the identical pattern to 2022 top *The Ancient Trendline is based on a back-dated creation of the S&P 500 by Standard & Poors as the index was founded in 1957 8) Bullish Ascending Channel starts in Jun-Oct 2022 -A short break here confirms new bearish descending channel and major diamond reversal. -This will be your bearish hint towards bearish 2025 but don't short yet!! -No break confirms ascending channel but EOY will give one more opportunity for a break. 9) End of Year typical Tax Loss Harvesting, Santa Rally, etc. -Unlikely to see a bullish breakout here -If Continuation occurs, it will be Jan into Feb 10) Last chance for Bears! -Need bearish breakdown to confirm both diamond and descending channel 11) Descension confirmation marks several opportunities on path down for bullish break outs -Initial Support @ $4800 (20% drop from top) -Secondary Support @ $4450 (25% drop from top) -Massive Support @ $4144 (30% drop from top) Best of luck in 2025 whatever you decide! Game on!
CBOE:SPX
by jasonchristy
4
SPY: Short-Term Selloff Anticipated After Fed Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip on SPY: Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve approaches its rate cut decision this week, speculation is high that we may see a larger-than-expected cut of 50 basis points rather than the anticipated 25. This could trigger a short-term selloff in equities, including the SPY (S&P 500 ETF), despite the initial market reaction. The market often exhibits a “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior, and this situation could be no different. With expectations set for a 25 basis point cut, a surprise 50 basis point reduction might lead to concerns about the underlying economic conditions. This could prompt a selloff in major indices, including SPY, as traders and investors react to the Fed’s unexpected move. In the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision, SPY might see a brief uptick as market participants adjust their positions and optimism prevails. However, this short-term rally could be quickly overshadowed by a broader correction. As the market digests the implications of the Fed's actions and potential economic concerns come to light, SPY is likely to experience a pullback. For those looking to capitalize on this potential downturn, the $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could be a prudent choice. These puts offer a strategic way to hedge against or profit from the anticipated short-term decline in SPY. Given the expected correction following the Fed's rate cut, this option could provide significant value as SPY faces downward pressure. While SPY may experience an initial rise in response to the Fed’s decision, the broader market sentiment is likely to shift towards risk aversion, leading to a correction in the weeks following the announcement. By October 18, the broader market and SPY could be reflecting these adjustments, making the $550 puts a timely investment. In summary, while SPY might see some early gains next week, a correction is expected to follow as the market reacts to the Fed’s decision. The $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could offer a valuable opportunity for those anticipating this short-term volatility.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
BTCUSD | ViolationClassic price-based ribbons are commonly used. Their inversion signifies a bear market, while their normalization a bull one. They are unfortunately very laggy. In markets, it is trends that change first and then prices. Therefore, a trend-based ribbon can prove a highly responsive and clear way to visualize market cycles. This trend-based ribbon can be used as a price centerline and as an indicator of market trends. With this trend-based ribbon, the famous 1970s stagflation and the 2000s stagnation is clearly discernible. Applying this indicator to Bitcoin, we realize the following. We are entering a period o stagnation for Bitcoin. Its trend-ribbon has began inverting. This has happened in 2015 and 2022. Also notice the broader Crypto problems. P.S. PineCoders have banned dozens of my indicators for violating "House Rules" I don't know which rule in specific, because many of them were open-source. Some of you may have briefly seen some of them before their demise. The protagonist indicator of this idea, called Trend-Based Ribbon, got banned yesterday. This idea is posted after following some useful guidance from PineCoders. In this fashion, I can analyze a chart and talk about it with you, while at the same time showing you the reaction of my indicators. I thank them for the workaround. Feel free to ask for a private copy by commenting below. I will get to you ASAP. Individual, you are convicted of multi-anti-civil violations . Implicit citizenship revoked, status: malignant P.S. Again... I got sick of having all of my work banned. I have been developing these indicators for hundreds of hours, only to see them locked for no explanation. (They can't ban an idea now, can they?)
INDEX:BTCUSD
by akikostas
14
Markets Finding Equilibrium Before FOMCAll major indexes and broad market advancing today with the US CPI/PPI combo causing some big recoveries since the post Labor Day selloff. Momentum goes to the bulls for now until price proves otherwise. FED likely to cut 25 bps next week with more to come by end of year. It's amazing how quickly sentiment can shift like it did with Aug 1-5 and after, and again Sep 3-6 and after. I hope you enjoy today's video. Friday's close for the day and week will be important and perhaps it's all quiet on the western front heading into FOMC next week where price can be excitable and volatile, but we'll do our best to navigate everything. Thanks for watching!!! See you in the markets.
AMEX:XLRE
by ChrisPulver
1
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong follow through by the bulls after another nasty bear trap. On lower time frames we got some sell spikes but mostly due to bulls taking profits and not strong bears shorting. Bullish price action can’t be denied and on the daily charts we are moving closer to the shallow bear trend lines from the ath and we are mostly inside triangles. Daily charts tell the story and it’s bullish so we can’t expect a strong bear reversal tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is still my preferred pattern for now. Tomorrow we could see 5640 but anything above is uncertain. At that level I would get out of most longs. Currently I don’t have any interest in selling, since we have seen many bear traps. Today bears could not close a 1h bar below the 20ema, so look how market behaves if we get there again tomorrow. Buy on strength and don’t get fooled into shorts on strong selling. It was strong but disappeared in an instance and bulls melted higher again. current market cycle: t rading range and also minor bull trend inside since we are making higher lows and higher highs key levels: 5400 -5650 bull case: Bulls bought 5550 until bears gave up. The selling around the open was strong enough to trap many bears and that’s why the move up was so violent again. Bulls are in full control until we make lower lows again. Targets above are obvious. Next one is open of the month + high of the month around 5670 and above that is the ath 5721. Last time we got above 5600, market did go sideways for 10 days and this time we could see a breakout above or below somewhat faster. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 5580 but since they could not close below the 1h for 3h, they gave up and market moved up in a perfect small pullback bull trend which held above the 1m 20ema for an hour and 35 points. So what’s next for bears? Do or die moment around 5650 to keep it a lower high. If they fail, we most likely print a new ath. Rough guess is that bears won’t try to close the week with a red bar but just keep it below 5670. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Max bullishness as long as the 1h 20ema is not broken and until we hit 5650/5660. I’d close longs there on any weakness and probably won’t do anything until next week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Only intraday scalps currently. Still think next 500 points are made to the downside and not up. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap on the US open was as perfect of a trade as it gets.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds