ES targets Oct 4th // NFP at 8:30All week, only one level really mattered in ES: 5740, which has tested or trapped below 13 times now. I was looking for another rally to 5754, 5763+, and we’ve hit those levels.
As of now: NFP at 8:30. Protect gains. 5744/5734 must hold on any NFP dips to keep 5782 and 5805 in play. If 5734 fails, 5721 and 5702 next down
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
Bearish Pressure Builds Amid Middle East Tensions, Targets 5675Middle East uncertainty after Iran attack makes for tricky trading
Beyond tensions in the Middle East, there are several potential catalysts that could keep investors on edge, including the upcoming U.S. election in November and a key jobs report this week that will help shape the Fed's policy direction.
Technically:
The price has reached our target and continues to decline towards 5675 and 5643 while remaining below 5713 and 5732.
To shift to a bullish trend, the price must break above 5732.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5715
Resistance Levels: 5732, 5784, 5820
Support Levels: 5675, 5643, 5584
Trend Outlook:
Bearish while under 5732
previous idea:
AAPL: 25% Correction / Liquidity Gap at $175🔸Hello traders, today let's review 12H price chart for AAPL/Apple.
This is advanced technical trade setup based on historic price fractal.
🔸AAPL currently entering distribution at the top stage with
distribution defined by the ABCD fractal. Same price fractal
was observed in the market in Dec21/Jan22 before a subsequent 25%
market correction in AAPL.
🔸ABCD ongoing distribution defined by range highs at 230 USD
and range lows at 205 USD. Once we complete the ABCD structure
expect a sharp mark-down in price / correction from point D into
point E near 175 USD liquidity gap / open gap will drag price down.
🔸Recommended strategy AAPL traders: Advanced traders may
short AAPL / buy May 2025 LEAP put options. No valid strategy
currently for the bulls, it's best to wait until liquidity gap gets filled
later in Q1/Q2 2025 before buying low at/near 175 usd.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TSLA: 125% gains Best Level to BUY/HOLD 🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour price chart for TSLA.
Currently a mixed package overall with limited upside potential,
I don't recommend entering any buys at current price.
🔸Ongoing accumulation since May 2023, significant lows printed
in April 2023 / 2024, so I'm tagging April 2025 as a potential reversal
for TSLA / bottom buying near range lows totally makes sense.
🔸Accumulation range defined by range lows at 175 usd
and range highs at 255 usd. premium prices below at 145/165
and above at 280 and 305 usd.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting pullback based on measured move projection set to extend further down towards 175 usd. currently
trading at 250 usd, no entries recommended on buy side. This is a
trade setup for patient traders. may take more time to develop.
conservative target is 350 USD, so +125% gains off the lows.
🔸Finally, check out the TSLA related story below and let me know
in the comments section if you'd like to get more updates like this.
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Year 2030. Tesla coupe safely lands on Mars. Exploration mission
starts in April 2030.
▪️ In this fictional tale in 2030, Tesla founder Elon Musk and his wife Grimes make a historic landing on Mars, marking a new era in space exploration.
▪️ Upon arrival, they establish a settlement called "New Teslaville," aiming to turn it into a sustainable colony for future generations.
▪️ Their first day involves setting up essential infrastructure, including solar panels, an oxygen generator, and a Mars rover.
▪️ The next day, they plant a Tesla flag on Mars, signifying humanity's first successful landing on the red planet.
▪️ On day three, Musk shares a heartfelt message about the importance of space colonization for humanity's survival.
▪️ After a successful first week, they receive a message from Earth, indicating the start of the "New Mars Era" and their status as the first Martian settlers.
▪️ The couple ends their week by enjoying the Martian sunset in a Tesla coupe.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
S&P500 Fractal from 2019 points to a 6100 rally.The S&P500 (SPX) is absorbing all the negative news on the recent geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and could post its first red week after a streak of three green 1W candles. This shouldn't however make us lose our long-term perspective and a fractal from 2018 - 2020 comes to remind us why.
As you can see, the 1W RSI sequence from July 24 2023 until now, is quite similar to the one from October 01 2018 - September 30 2019. The price actions between the two fractals are also similar. Both started with a bottom on (or near) the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and transitioned into a Bullish Megaphone.
After the September 30 2019 Low, the index resumed the uptrend within a (green) Channel Up, which extended higher up until the COVID crash, which is of course a 1-in-100 year Black Swan event that couldn't have been predicted. If it weren't for that, the market would have at best tested the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for new buyers and then extended the bullish trend like it did after June 2020.
In any case, we expect a similar behavior with a bullish continuation of +25.50% from the last Low (-3% lower like the 2019 rise was from its previous Bullish Leg). This gives us an end-of-year Target around 6100.
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Combined US Index - Bullish flip overdone. Retracement now... As previously marked out, the bullish flip was done, and is pretty overdone. Yesterday's close sealed it for a retracement, and technicals (MACD and VolDiv) support that view.
should be seeing a downdraft to the last low visit (yellow ellipse).
Possible stall at blue ellipse, but look for further breakdown.
Exceeding the last low to close below is Bearish.
Let us see...
S&P500 Consolidation before the next leg to 6000.The S&P500 index / US500 may have pulled back a little today but on the long term pattern, which is a Rising Megaphone, it only shows that it turned sideways.
This ranged trading, is the consolidation that the previous leg up did after rebounding on the 0.618 Fib and the 1day MA50.
The index is possibly repeating this pattern so what's next is a rally to the 1.618 Fib extension.
Buy and target 6000.
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S&P500: Upward Potential!We still give the S&P more room and time to complete its turquoise wave B, which should primarily peak below the resistance at 5946 points. If the index breaches this level, we will have to assume that the larger green wave alt.(4) has already bottomed out. We consider this alternative scenario 38% likely. However, we primarily expect the S&P to fall into our green Target Zone (coordinates: 5110 – 4921 points) after reaching the upcoming top of wave B. This range is where the regular green wave (4) should be completed. Thereafter, we expect the upward movement to continue, with wave (5) finally breaking above 5946 points.
SPX500 intraday dips continue to attract buyers.US500 - 24h expiry
Buying pressure from 5714 resulted in all the initial daily selloff being recaptured.
Broken out of the channel formation to the upside.
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Dips continue to attract buyers.
We look to set longs in early trade for a further test of the fragile looking resistance.
Our profit targets will be 5785 and 5800
Resistance: 5780 / 5784 / 5800
Support: 5745 / 5730 / 5714
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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Types of traders 101Overview of types of traders
SCALPER
🔸Scalpers buy and sell securities quickly, usually within seconds, with the aim of achieving profits from minuscule price changes from large trade volumes.
🔸Scalper also refers to someone who buys up in-demand merchandise or event tickets to resell at a higher price.
🔸Scalpers buy and sell securities many times in a day with the objective of making consistent net profits from the aggregate of all these transactions.
🔸Scalpers must be highly disciplined, combative by nature, and astute decision makers in order to succeed.
EATRADER / Algo Trader
🔸Algorithmic trader will use process- and rules-based computational formulas for executing trades.
🔸 Algorithmic trader is performing statistical analysis on stocks, funds, or currencies and then writing algorithms and programs using computer languages like C# or Python or PineScript.
🔸While it provides advantages, such as faster execution time and reduced costs, algorithmic trading can also exacerbate the market's negative tendencies by causing flash crashes and immediate loss of liquidity.
Technical Trader
🔸Generally, a technician uses historical patterns of trading data to predict what might happen to market in the future.
🔸A technical trader prefers to study price patterns over time periods ranging from a few minutes to a month. This is usually done using a variety of tools, such as indicators, to understand which way price is moving in any given market.
Swing Trader
🔸Swing trading refers to a trading style that attempts to exploit short- to medium-term price movements in a security using favorable risk/reward metrics.
🔸 Swing traders primarily rely on technical analysis to determine suitable entry and exit points, but they may also use fundamental analysis as an added filter
Fundumental Trader
🔸Fundumental trader focuses on company-specific events to determine which stock to buy and when to buy it. Trading on fundamentals is more closely associated with a buy-and-hold strategy rather than short-term trading.
🔸Furthermore, fundumental traders must understand technical analysis to identify trends and price patterns supporting their fundamental analysis.
Money Manager
🔸A money manager is a person or financial firm that manages the securities portfolio of individual or institutional investors.
🔸 Professional money managers do not receive commissions on transactions; rather, they are paid based on a percentage of assets under management.
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Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
BRIEFING Week #39 : China RoaringHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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S&P500: Bullish until the end of the year.Excellent bullish technicals on its 1D outlook for the S&P500 (RSI = 64.960, MACD = 69.000, ADX = 26.170), despite turning mostly sideways in the past trading days. However, having reached the HH trendline, we can see from the past two similar patterns that a consolidation is normal and as long as the 1D MA50 holds, the index is more likely to continue the uptrend. We are expecting a similar +15.00% rise (TP = 6,200) to close the year out.
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Megaphone - BearishSPY weekly looking interesting heading into the week. Staying hedged with the SPY holding another megaphone. The SPY is being carried by buyer volume with some hidden bearish divergence on the RSI and nearing overbought territory yet again.
With so many sectors and indexes flashing red and a massive bearish cipher on the weekly timeframe as further confirmation, looking forward to playing the downside.
Some FIB levels and RSI-based supply and demand zones to keep an eye on in the meantime (Accompanying Charts Attached Below)
S&P sets new high but weakness is mountingLast week, the market traded within a narrow range, yet still managed to reach new highs. The bulls remain in control of both the daily and weekly timeframes, although I’m not entirely comfortable with the structure that has developed over the past five days. Most of the growth occurred during extended hours, while during regular trading hours, the market either remained in a tight range or moved downward. This structure is fragile and could easily break, though I’m not ready to call for shorts just yet.
Firstly, it hasn’t broken. We're still in a bullish wave on the daily timeframe — in the past two weeks, none of the days have closed below the previous day's low. Secondly, even if the structure breaks, we should not expect significant follow-through, as the market remains very bullish.
Here's a quick recap of the key points supporting the bullish thesis (you can find the rest in my previous review):
1. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, which is positive for both the economy and the stock market for several reasons, such as cheaper borrowing costs.
2. The SPX has reached a new all-time high, which is highly bullish.
3. Both the weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend.
For the market to reverse, there would need to be a significant shift in sentiment, likely triggered by some fundamental event. From a technical standpoint, the uptrend remains intact as long as the bulls hold the previous major low ( 538 ). Until then, any "red" waves should be viewed as mere pullbacks within the broader upward movement.
SPX: boosted by lower inflationThe Fed's rate cut and further slowdown of the US inflation boosted the US equity markets, where S&P 500 reached the newly fresh all-time highest level as of the end of the previous week. The highest weekly level reached was 5.761, while the index is closing the week at the level of 5.738. Released inflation data showed that the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE index slowed down further to the level of 2,2% y/y in August, below market consensus, which increased sentiment in investors that the Fed might confidently cut rates further during the year. On the other hand, the environment of decreasing interest rates will be supportive to business, increasing expectations of higher profitability in the coming period.
Analysts are noting that, with a cooling inflation, the Fed might now fully focus on the labor market in the coming period, and expect a positive impact for the further strengthening of the US economy. Aside from the tech companies, the materials sector especially gained during the week, adding a 3,4% to the value of stocks in this sector for the week. There are analysts who are pointing that the financial sector might also gain in the coming period, with an increase in lending activity.
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 29th—> Oct 4th)**Looking Ahead:**
Next week will feature several key events and data releases:
- **U.S. Jobs Report**
- **U.S. PMI Surveys**
- **Fed Chair Powell Speech**
- **Earnings Reports:** Nike ( NYSE:NKE ), Carnival ( NYSE:CCL ), Levi Strauss & Co. ( NYSE:LEVI ), Constellation Brands ( NYSE:STZ )
- **Tesla Q3 Deliveries ( NASDAQ:TSLA )**
As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
Mastering Market Signals &How to Use the VX Algo? In this video, we'll break down how to maximize your success rate by using key indicators and strategies during the optimal trading window (9:00 AM - 2:00 PM EST). Learn how to identify high-probability buy and sell signals, manage risk effectively, and stay in the 'winning zone' like a pro. Whether you’re a beginner or an experienced trader, this guide will help you gain the edge you need to navigate the markets confidently. Don't miss out on these actionable insights!"
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spx &nasdaq in an iminent drop of valuespx showing an iminent short going in value, where it can go? last time i tryed to do the math it would go arround 2700 but without any sure, the major stock whealtiest did a 3x wealth since covid drop, this could be another timer that can quintuple the value, or make more 15x time the value that they had before covid, it is an iminent drop coming, in my opinion, good for everyone even for world economies, to triple their whealth and put the profits in their balance sheet and put time their gdp growth, is a question of timing, after covid drop, that in my opinion, didnt had too much growth in manufactories and jobs, only people gowing ther whealth by the 'inflation' fault,
anyway, there is an iminent drop in the stock market in the western countries, at least, im not into asian market but american indexes are in an eminent significant drop, in my POV.
The S&P rally continues, defying all fears of a recessionLast week was marked by erratic price movements, leading many to recall the old adage, "no trade might be your best trade." The most confusing (and devastating) price action occurred on Thursday following the FOMC's interest rate decision. The Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points, sparking fears of an upcoming recession. Wednesday ended with a strong bearish "falling star" candle, tempting traders to take large SHORT positions. To be honest, I would have likely done the same if I had been trading that day (luckily, I wasn’t), as the least one would have expected was an overnight rally that wiped out short positions when the market opened on Thursday.
This series of events is a perfect example of what makes trading so challenging— even a solid setup can fail spectacularly without any clear reason.
Now, let's try to assess the current situation :
1. The Fed cut rates by 0.5 percentage points – This is actually positive for the economy and the stock market for many reasons (e.g. cheaper borrowing costs). At the same time there are no objective signs of a recession, only fears.
2. The SPX reached a new all-time high – How can this be bearish?
3. Both weekly and daily charts show a strong uptrend.
4. Almost all major SPX sectors closed the week strong, reflecting investor confidence.
In summary, the market remains very bullish , with no indication that the trend is reversing anytime soon. Short term price action might be erratic, but long-term things look good both from technical and fundamental perspectives.
Let’s stay calm and prudent.
Important levels:
Last major weekly high (538). As long as it holds buyers have control over weekly chart.